by Todd Lammi
One of the strategies I employ when it comes to fantasy baseball drafts is to look for players coming off of an injury in the middle to late rounds. The reason is twofold; the value of the player has been somewhat depressed in terms of draft position compared to the value of potential return in stats for a full season of health and two, there is a foundation for statistical success that is present compared to taking a flier on a rookie with an unknown performance history that may or may not have still have a starting job once the month of April is over. With that in mind, let’s review some of the key names coming back from injury in 2009.
Travis Hafner: Had shoulder surgery on October 14, 2008. I am a little concerned that it took that long last season for the surgery to occur and it did not happen in season, which means he could start out spring training a little behind schedule. His 42 home runs in 2006 look like an outlier so even if he was 100% his home run range seems to be in the 22-27 range with possible upside to 30. His average draft position is currently running 239 at Mock Draft Central which puts him in the 17th round in a 14 team mixed league draft.
Victor Martinez: Martinez had elbow surgery in June of last season to remove bone chips. He showed a little power upon his return, hitting two home runs in 59 at bats in September after going homer less in his first 207 plate appearances of the season. The one concern with drafting Martinez is the potential for him to lose 75-100 at bats this season to Kelly Shoppach at catcher.
Todd Helton: Helton who had been bother by back issues since 2002 finally underwent back surgery on September 30th of last year. He is still currently rehabbing his back with the hopes of being ready for opening day. Now at age 35, he can still provide some average help, but his power potential is most likely 20 home runs maximum and he has not driven in 100 runs since 2003.
Chase Utley: Utley underwent hip surgery at the of November last season and the original prognosis was that he would miss 4 to 6 months. Utley , who is pushing to be ready by Opening Day has felt no pain so far this year. Considering that he played in pain last season and still posted numbers of .292 avg 33 home runs 104 rbi’s and 14 steals. Assuming he has no setbacks in spring training, he could be a great value pick for someone picking at the end of the first round / early second round if he slides in your draft.
Troy Tulowitzki: It was a tough season last year for Tulowitzki, suffering a torn quadriceps tendon at the end of April and mssing time in June after cutting his hand when he slammed a bat in frustration. He managed to bounce back when he returned, hitting .292 with 5 home runs and 25 rbi’s in his last 52 games of the year with a 21 to 25 walk to strikeout ratio. Current ADP has Tulowitzki grouped together with Jhonny Peralta of Cleveland and J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers. I like Tulowitzki a little more than both of those two with the batting average upside he can provide.
Ryan Zimmerman: Here is what I wrote about Zimmerman in one of my previous posts, “Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals looks to be going a little high in drafts with an ADP of 99. Coming off of wrist surgery in 2007 he suffered a torn labrum in 2008 and his power suffered as a result. His walk rate decreased and his stolen base totals went from 11 two years ago to only 1 last season. He can still have a productive season but I think there are better, safer choices that will be available in a one year league draft.” The recent signing of Adam Dunn might give Zimmerman a little more protection in the lineup, watch to see his power numbers in spring to see if his strength has returned all the way.
Mike Lowell: Lowell underwent hip surgery at the end of October and is working towards being ready for opening day. The Boston Red Sox have an alternate in place with Kevin Youkilis having the ability to switch over from first base so there is no need to rush Lowell’s recovery. It will be interesting to see if he comes back with a chip on his shoulder after the Red Sox missed out on signing Mark Teixeira which would have led to Lowell being traded. His current ADP slots him behind Melvin Mora, Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton, and Mark Reynolds.
Eric Byrnes: Byrnes was limited to only 206 at bats last season after tearing his left hamstring. Arizona manager Bob Melvin said in December his current lineup plans have Eric Byrnes on the bench. Byrnes has been mentioned several times in trade rumors in the off season. Expect those rumors to heat up in spring training if he can show his hamstrings are okay and he can steal bases. Currently the plan is for Byrnes to sit out the first few spring training games as a precaution.
