Posts Tagged ‘Wade Davis’

2010 Two Start Pitchers – Week 12

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 19th, 2010

Here is a complete look at the fantasy baseball two-start pitchers for week 12. Obviously the top tier pitchers are going to be left in your line up, but here is a look at some of the more border line pitchers for mixed league starts and who they face in those starts.

Two-start pitchers week 12: remember again that the list below is more focused on mixed leagues since in AL or NL only leagues in most cases you do not have the option to rotate too many starting pitchers with the smaller player pool. The pitchers below are listed in alphabetical order by team name per category.

American League:

Start them:

Jon Lester (BOS) ~ @COL (Chacin), @SF (Lincecum)
John Danks (CHW) ~ ATL (Hanson), CHC (Dempster)
Justin Verlander (DET) ~ @NYM (Niese), @ATL (Hanson)
Ervin Santana (LAA) ~ LAD (Kershaw), COL (Chacin)
A.J. Burnett (NYY) ~ @ARI (Lopez), @LAD (Kershaw)
Gio Gonzalez (OAK) ~ CIN (Leake), PIT (Duke)
Jason Vargas (SEA) ~ CHC (Dempster), @MIL (Bush)
Tommy Hunter (TEX) ~ PIT (Duke), HOU (Oswalt)
Brett Cecil (TOR) ~ STL (Garcia), PHI (Moyer)

Roll the Dice:

Scott Baker (MIN) ~ @MIL (Bush), @NYM (Niese)
Wade Davis (TB) ~ SD (Latos), ARI (Lopez)

Baker maybe got things turned around with his seven innings of shutout ball last week against Colorado when he recorded 12 strikeouts. His numbers have not been that far off from 2009 except for a few more hits and walks. It has been a disappointing 2010 for Davis who has failed to capitalize on his 2009 end of the year success. With Jeremy Hellickson ready in Triple-A, this two-start week may tell the tale of where Davis is pitching the second half of the season. What has been most discouraging for owners has been the sharp drop in his strikeout rate from last year, falling by almost 2.5 whiffs per game. With all that said however, at home against a light hitting San Diego team and a second home start gives me hope he can pull out two good starts.

Sit Them:

Jeremy  Guthrie (BAL) ~ FLA (Sanchez), WAS (Hernandez)
Mitch Talbot (CLE) ~ @PHI (Moyer), @CIN (Leake)
Bruce Chen (KC) ~ @WAS (Hernandez), STL (Garcia)

Guthrie has lost four in a row, allowing four runs in three of his last four starts. If you are in a deep league, he could be worth the two starts next week. Chen fared much better as a reliever and although he has won two of his last three starts, he has a 5.29 ERA in those appearances and a 1.53 WHIP.

National League:

Start them:

Tommy Hanson (ATL) ~ @CWS (Danks), DET (Verlander)
Ryan Dempster (CHC) ~ @SEA (Vargas), @CWS (Danks)
Mike Leake (CIN) ~ @OAK (Gonzalez), CLE (Talbot)
Anibal Sanchez (FLA) ~ @BAL (Guthrie), SD (Latos)
Roy Oswalt (HOU) ~ SF (Lincecum), @TEX (Hunter)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) ~ @LAA (Santana), NYY (Burnett)
Mat Latos (SD) ~ @TB (Davis), @FLA (Sanchez)
Tim  Lincecum (SF) ~ @HOU (Oswalt), BOS (Lester)
Jaime Garcia (STL) ~ @TOR (Cecil), @KC (Chen)

Roll the Dice:

Jon Niese (NYM) ~ DET (Verlander), MIN (Baker)
Livan Hernandez (WAS) ~ KC (Chen), @BAL (Guthrie)
Jamie  Moyer (PHI) ~ CLE (Talbot), @TOR (Cecil)

Niese has won three in a row, allowing four runs in 23 innings in those starts with 15 strikeouts. Hernandez was a dud in his last start, allowing eight runs in 6 2/3 innings against Detroit. Previous to that, he had allowed three runs or less in every start this season except for a four run start against San Francisco on 5/25. Moyer has earned a decision in every start so far this season. Take the chance that the Philadelphia offense is going to get him the win as much as his pitching will.

Sit Them:

Jhoulys Chacin (COL) ~ BOS (Lester), @LAA (Santana)
Rodrigo Lopez (AZ) ~ NYY (Burnett), @TB (Davis)
Dave Bush (MIL) ~ MIN (Baker), SEA (Vargas)
Zach Duke (PIT) ~ @TEX (Hunter), @OAK (Gonzalez)

Bush has pitched reasonably well in his last four starts with a 2.96  ERA and 12 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings. In his last start against Minnesota back on 5/21, he allowed seven runs in 1/3 of an innings. I looked for any type of positive news on Duke and could not really find any. He has lost four straight starts, allowing a whopping 38 hits in 22 innings in those games. Lopez always gives the Diamondbacks innings, the problem is the negative stats have a much bigger impact to your fantasy baseball team because he stays in the game so long.  Lopez has not won since 5/15 and was pounded in his lone interleague start against Boston last week, allowing six runs in seven innings. Chacin’s ERA has been steadily on the rise over the last month and he has dropped four straight decisions.

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2010 Tampa Bay Rays Team Preview

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 16th, 2010

This is the third part our series of 2010 fantasy baseball team previews looking at the American League East. The team previews will include the projected batting order, projected rotation, rookies that could make an impact in 2010 as well as each players current ADP for a 15 team mixed fantasy baseball league.

2010 Tampa Bay Rays Projected Batting Order:

1.  SS Jason Bartlett (ADP 106)
2.  LF Carl Crawford (ADP 15)
3.  3B Evan Longoria (ADP 11)
4.  1B Carlos Pena (ADP 73)
5.  2B Ben Zobrist (ADP 56)
6.  RF Pat Burrell (ADP 428)
7.  CF B.J. Upton (ADP 54)
8.  DH Hank Blalock / Sean Rodriguez /  Matt Joyce (ADP 414 / 350 / 307)
9.  C Kelly Shoppach (ADP 393)

2010 Tampa Bay Rays Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  James Shields (ADP 122)
2.  Matt Garza (ADP 118)
3.  Jeff Niemann (ADP 220)
4.  David Price (ADP 181)
5.  Wade Davis (ADP 325)

Closer – Rafael Soriano (ADP 155)
Handcuff – J.P. Howell

2010 Tampa Bay Rays Prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Desmond Jennings – OF
2.  Jeremy Hellickson – SP
3.  Reid Brignac – 2B / SS


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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Starting Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2010

This is the seventh article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for starting pitchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

I have Ryan Dempster 11 spots higher on my starting pitcher list than his current ADP ranking. Numbers from 2008 and 2009 were pretty close to the same except for a drop in wins and some regression to his ERA that was to be expected. Has a much better percent chance of striking out 175+, having an ERA under 3.7 and a WHIP under 1.3 than quite a few people that are currently being drafted ahead of him.

Gavin Floyd was a top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies and one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues when he was coming up through the farm system. It took him a little over 170 innings at the major league level before finally settling into a groove so the struggles he encountered still have some people not giving him enough credit. Bumped up his strikeout rate 1.3 per nine last season and decreased his home run rate. ERA went up slightly only because of the ineffectiveness of the bullpen behind him.

Hiroki Kuroda is ranked 50th on my list and is 66th according to his current average draft position. Injuries kept his innings down in 2009 which might partially explain his current standing. But in the innings he did pitch, he improved his strikeout per nine ratio by a batter.

Overvalued:

Starting pitchers in general. Last year in the NFBC, there were only three pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks on average. Those were Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. This season there are eight pitchers with a current fantasy baseball ADP in the top 50.

If you look at the top 15 pitchers based on where they were drafted in the NFBC last season, you could argue that half of them were busts or went too high, either based on injury or performance. Those would include Santana, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Even though they did not have terrible seasons, you could add Chad Billingsley and James Shields to that list as well as their actual value turned out to be much lower than where they were drafted.

Cliff Lee seems to scream overvalued to me based on where he is going in fantasy baseball mock drafts. Moves back to the American League where his control was not as sharp as it was in the NL. Will see a drop in his strikeout rate and if his strand rate which was higher than average the last two seasons regresses, his ERA is going to jump as well. Now, I am not saying to stay away from him, just that there several better options than him when you are on the clock to make your draft choice.

As I wrote about Javier Vazquez in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers, I just don’t see how he is being drafted as high as he is. The move back to the American League (drop in strikeouts, higher ERA and WHIP) coupled with the move to the Eastern division and playing in New York (4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when last with Yankees) means there is some regression coming to his 2009 numbers. Remember that you should be drafting players based on what they will do in 2010 and not what they did last season. I still see way too many people doing that. There are variables every year that impact performance and you need to be able to take these into account when the information is available to you.

A.J. Burnett I have ranked as the 37th pitcher compared to his ADP that places him at 29. An ERA over 4, plus a WHIP that hit 1.40 last season combined with a past injury history makes me leery of grabbing him too high in a mixed league draft. If  you wait to draft starting pitchers and he is one of the top two pitchers on your team, you are going to need to surround with him low ratio pitchers so you don’t feel the full impact of his lack of control.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Tim Lincecum 13 2 1 1 13
2 Roy Halladay 31 3 7 3 1
3 Dan Haren 41 4 5 3 11
4 Zack Greinke 31 3 7 3 1
5 Felix Hernandez 32 3 8 3 2
6 CC Sabathia 29 3 5 2 14
7 Justin Verlander 47 4 11 4 2
8 Johan Santana 46 4 10 4 1
9 Adam Wainwright 61 6 1 5 1
10 Josh Johnson 80 7 8 6 5
11 Jon Lester 62 6 2 5 2
12 Tommy Hanson 87 8 3 6 12
13 Chris Carpenter 81 7 9 6 6
14 Cliff Lee 56 5 8 4 11
15 Josh Beckett 86 8 2 6 11
16 Yovani Gallardo 98 9 2 7 8
17 Matt Cain 95 8 11 7 5
18 Cole Hamels 105 9 9 7 15
19 Jake Peavy 86 8 2 6 11
20 Ubaldo Jimenez 106 9 10 8 1
21 Clayton Kershaw 105 9 9 7 15
22 Javier Vazquez 63 6 3 5 3
23 Ricky Nolasco 111 10 3 8 6
24 Chad Billingsley 126 11 6 9 6
25 Wandy Rodriguez 122 11 2 9 2
26 Brandon Webb 142 12 10 10 7
27 Jair Jurrjens 140 12 8 10 5
28 Ryan Dempster 169 15 1 12 4
29 Brett Anderson 175 15 7 12 10
30 James Shields 133 12 1 9 13
31 Jered Weaver 139 12 7 10 4
32 John Lackey 128 11 8 9 8
33 Matt Garza 129 11 9 9 9
34 Scott Baker 158 14 2 11 8
35 Gavin Floyd 194 17 2 13 14
36 Max Scherzer 150 13 6 10 15
37 A.J. Burnett 132 11 12 9 12
38 Ted Lilly 156 13 12 11 6
39 Roy Oswalt 158 14 2 11 8
40 John Danks 168 14 12 12 3
41 David Price 185 16 5 13 5
42 Carlos Zambrano 171 15 3 12 6
43 Tim Hudson 219 19 3 15 9
44 Rich Harden 226 19 10 16 1
45 Clay Buchholz 211 18 7 15 1
46 Kevin Slowey 225 19 9 15 15
47 Scott Kazmir 185 16 5 13 5
48 Jonathan Sanchez 240 20 12 16 15
49 J.A. Happ 254 22 2 17 14
50 Hiroki Kuroda 261 22 9 18 6
51 Randy Wolf 193 17 1 13 13
52 Francisco Liriano 247 21 7 17 7
53 Johnny Cueto 239 20 11 16 14
54 Rick Porcello 222 19 6 15 12
55 Jorge de la Rosa 202 17 10 14 7
56 Daisuke Matsuzaka 203 17 11 14 8
57 Jeff Niemann 230 20 2 16 5
58 Ervin Santana 243 21 3 17 3
59 Mark Buehrle 248 21 8 17 8
60 Joe Blanton 283 24 7 19 13

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be closers.

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Minor League Report – week 11

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here is a review of the top pitchers in Triple-A that could potentially have an impact in major league baseball the second half of the season, but more importantly impact your fantasy baseball league standings.

Franklin Morales (Rockies) has strung together two good starts after an eight-run shellacking on June 11th. Morales has allowed two runs in his last 12 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts as he continues to rehab from a strained shoulder that sidelined him back in April.

Bud Norris (Astros) has a 2.11 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 81 innings. He is holding hitters to a .222 average with only five home runs surrendered on the season. The Astros are only 5.5 games out of first place despite running Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz and Brandon Backe out every fifth day. If the Astros don’t call him up after the All-Star break once they are able to reset their pitching rotation, he would most likely be in Triple-A until after September first when rosters expand.

The Baltimore Orioles have a plethora of starters to choose from in Triple-A if they need any help. Chris Tillman currently has a 2.55 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 60 innings, while holding hitters to a .229 batting average. In his last three starts, he has a 4.24 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings.

Jake Arrieta was promoted to Triple-A and had an excellent first start with one run allowed in six innings and six strikeouts, but struggled in his second start. In start number two, Arrieta allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts. On the season, Arrieta has a 2.97 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings.

Troy Patton allowed one run in six innings with one strikeout in his second start since being promoted to Triple-A. On the season, Patton has a 2.39 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings.

David Hernandez is back in Triple-A after a cup of coffee in the big leagues. He has not fared as well in his two starts back in the minor leagues, with a 6.30 ERA, despite fanning 15 in 10 innings.

Carlos Torres (White Sox) is a bit older for Triple-A at 26, but he is putting up numbers worthy of a call up. Torres has a 2.38 ERA in 72 innings with 78 strikeouts.

Wade Davis (Rays) has a 3.00 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 78 innings. It does not look like the Rays will have an opening in their rotation unless one of their current starters goes down with an injury. The Rays also have Scott Kazmir on the disabled list, so at this point Davis is their seventh best starter.

Brad Lincoln has been promoted to Triple-A by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Lincoln had a 2.28 ERA in Double-A with 65 strikeouts in 75 innings. With the Pirates not in the playoff race, he will most likely be called up September 1st when rosters expand.

Homer Baily (Reds) still has not been able to prove he is more than a Quadruple-A player; someone that is stuck between Triple-A and the major league level. He has turned it up a notch in his last four starts in Triple-A, allowing one run in 33 1/3 innings with 30 strikeouts. There doesn’t seem to be a spot in the Reds rotation for him with the way the other starters are pitching and Edison Volquez on the disabled list.

There is really nothing left for Clay Buchholz to do in Triple-A. Unfortunately for him, the Boston Red Sox rotation is stacked with the return of John Smoltz. The only way he appears before September 1st is if the Red Sox trade Brad Penny or one of the current starters get injured. Buchholz has a 1.90 ERA and is holding hitters to a .165 batting average. In 71 innings, he has struck out 65 hitters, while walking only 17. The one difference in regard to Buchholz compared to some of the other prospect pitchers in Triple-A is that Buchholz will turn 25 in August.

Michael Bowden (see Buchholz). Bowden is behind Buchholz in the Red Sox pecking order. He has gotten hit hard in two of his last four starts, allowing six runs twice. On the season, he has a 3.26 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings.

J.D. Martin in 2002 was the #5 prospect in the Cleveland Indians farm system. Several years later, now at age 26, he is in Triple-A pitching for the Washington Nationals. Martin has a 2.35 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 65 innings while allowing only six walks! With Scott Olsen due to return from the disabled list, the Nationals will be sending one of their current starters to the bullpen or to Triple-A so Martin seems to be looking at a September call up in a best case scenario.

Trevor Bell (Angels) was recently promoted to Triple-A after going 4-3 with a 2.23 ERA in Double-A. Bell has not been scored upon in two starts in Triple-A while striking out eight. With the iffy health statuses of John Lackey and Ervin Santana, Bell might be an option the second half of the season.

Kevin Pucetas (Giants) has a 3.59 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 82 2/3 innings. He should be first in line if any of the current starters suffer an injury or Jonathan Sanchez gets traded.

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