Posts Tagged ‘Troy Tulowitzki’

2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 15th, 2011

This is the fourth article in the series examining the current 2011 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for the position of shortstop. The data used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system which has 15 teams per league in a mixed format with two catchers needed per team.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as shortstops may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

It is interesting to look at the fantasy baseball ADP for this position as there are three kind of distinct fantasy baseball tiers with the top eight players going in the first eight round, then another four players going in rounds 10-12 and then the rest of the players going in the latter stages of the draft.

Those people drafting at the end of round three are going to have to make a tough call as to whether they want Derek Jeter at shortstop or Jimmy Rollins. Though Jeter’s dropped off last year, the one thing you can say about him is that you know he is going to play in almost every game. Rollins only played in 88 games last year and is headed toward free agency so one would hope he comes into camp in great shape this year so that is news to be watching for when players report.

I don’t have Alex Gonzalez in my top 20 shortstops, but based on ADP it looks like he is going as the 11th shortstop off the board. I am hoping that is some type of data discrepancy as I can’t believe he would be going that high. Again, don’t pay for last year’s numbers as regression always tends to counter balance ups and downs from season to season. Also remember that most of his damage came in Toronto where it seemed like everyone was swinging for the fences last season.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Hanley Ramirez 2 1 2 1 2
2 Troy Tulowitzki 4 1 4 1 4
3 Jose Reyes 25 3 1 2 10
4 Derek Jeter 53 5 5 4 8
5 Jimmy Rollins 43 4 7 3 13
6 Alexei Ramirez 81 7 9 6 6
7 Rafael Furcal 143 12 11 10 8
8 Elvis Andrus 75 7 3 5 15
9 Stephen Drew 112 10 4 8 7
10 Starlin Castro 153 13 9 11 3
11 Ian Desmond 168 14 12 12 3
12 Miguel Tejada 211 18 7 15 1
13 Jhonny Peralta 269 23 5 18 14
14 Asdrubal Cabrera 180 15 12 12 15
15 Marco Scutaro 202 17 10 14 7
16 Yunel Escobar 329 28 5 22 14
17 Jason Bartlett 283 24 7 19 13
18 J.J. Hardy 311 26 11 21 11
19 Reid Brignac 299 25 11 20 14
20 Erick Aybar 282 24 6 19 12
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2010 Fantasy Baseball – The First Round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

There has been much debate over where a fantasy baseball league is won; either the first half of the draft, or the middle rounds, or some combination of through the draft and then making the correct pickups in free agency.

What often gets overlooked however is the first round. While you are getting a good player in the first round, history has shown that you are not always getting the best value in the first round.

If you look at the first round average draft position of 2009, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman all did not earn first round value in a 15 team league, which is a 47% bust rate.

It gives some pause for thought how much you are willing to take a chance on an injured player like a Brandon Webb or hoping a young player like Chris Davis finds his way, knowing there is a good chance your first round pick might perform in terms of value of a player going in the third or fourth round.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – the number one pick, although if you are a big believer in position scarcity (which is a separate debate) Hanley Ramirez could go in this spot as I have seen in several mock drafts. Pujols has managed to play through elbow problems since injuring it back in 2003 so that is the only slight risk to him.

2) Hanley Ramirez – you have to weigh how comfortable you are with having a lesser player at shortstop if you have the first pick and opt for Pujols. If you pass on Hanley at 1 or 2, you are missing out on Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes coming back in the second round. Your pick in the third round is too early for Derek Jeter but he will not make it back to you in the fourth round so your starting shortstop would be someone in the next tier of players then.

3) Alex Rodriguez – how good is he? He put up almost the same number of home runs and RBI as Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman last season and he did it in 140 – 170 less at bats. He ran more the second half of the season when his hip was feeling better so there is no reason he cannot steal 20 or more bases this season.

4) Chase Utley – scores 110+ runs, hits 30+ home runs and last year was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which gives him an 88% success rate in his major league career. Not bad for a guy that was coming back from hip surgery.

5) Ryan Braun – in 2009 among all outfielders was, first in runs scored, tied for second in RBI, third in batting average and tied for eighth in home runs. Only 26 so he still has a good chance to hit 40 home runs in the next few seasons.

6) Matt Kemp – had a nice jump in numbers that saw him hit eight more home runs and drive in 25 more RBI compared to 2008 and he did it in the exact same number of at bats. He also managed to put up those numbers despite hitting seventh and eighth for 250 at bats last year.

7) Ryan Howard – I don’t mind the slightly lower batting average to get the additional home runs and RBI that he consistently provides every season. Four straight seasons of 45+ home runs and 136+ RBI gives you a good head start on those two categories.

8.) Mark Teixeira – numbers took a jump once Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees lineup last season Hit .200 in April with three home runs and then went nuts in May with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. Took advantage of his new home stadium by slugging 24 of his 39 home runs there.

9) Evan Longoria – power continues to develop with 44 doubles and 33 home runs at the age of 24 last year. Despite being a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen bases in his major league career, not sure if he ever gets close to 20 with his comments this week about his hamstrings being affected by the turf at Tropicana field.

10) Prince Fielder – matched power numbers of Ryan Howard last year, but has not show the ability to do it yet on a consistent basis every season. His 2009 numbers compared to his 2008 season is the difference between him being a first round pick and a third round selection.

11) Matt Holliday – showed he could still function away from Coors Field in splitting the season between Oakland and St. Louis. A return to the National League and the familiarity with pitching for a full season should keep his numbers intact.

12) Miguel Cabrera – I like the batting average, but his power is less than the other first basemen ahead of him in the first round. Has also scored less than 100 runs in each of the last three seasons.

13) Jimmy Rollins – lack of power in 2009 in the first half and an unlucky BABIP killed his value. No reason for him not to bounce back in 2010. Hard to find shortstops that will score 115+ runs with 20+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases.

14) David Wright – high batting average plus his ability to rack up steals at third base still gives him value, even if he doesn’t hit 30 home runs again. I would put his home run total between 2008 and 2009 levels and consider anything above that as gravy.

15) Troy Tulowitzki – position scarcity plus power and speed make him an attractive option at the end of the first round. Needs to improve his stolen base success rate though if he is going to be allowed to keep running. Hit 90 points higher the second half of the season in 2009.

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The Daily Dirt for Tuesday

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 24th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Brandon Inge homered for the second consecutive day and drove in two runs, giving him four home runs and nine RBI in his last 10 games. Inge has already surpassed his second highest total for home runs in his career and is now taking aim at his season best mark of 27. He should have no problem breaking that level if he continues at his current home run rate of one every 14 at bats compared to his 2006 rate of one home run every 20 at bats. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Tuesday…

Hitters:

Chase Utley went 3-for-5 with four RBI and homered for the 16th time in 2009. The home run was the fourth in June for Utley who remains on pace to possibly set career best marks in home runs (39) and RBI (119).

Jason Bay went 4-for-6 with three runs scored and three RBI. Bay blasted his 19th home run of the year and now has 69 RBI in 69 games played.

Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with two RBI and connected for his seventh home run on the season. The home run for McCann was his first in the last two weeks, leaving him on pace for 19 home runs and 83 RBI.

Jacob Ellsbury went 4-for-4 with three RBI and stole his 30th base of the season. Ellsbury has hit two of his three home runs on the year in his last 10 games, driving in eight runs and stealing seven bases during that period.

Matt Wieters went 2-for-4 with his second home in five games. Wieters has driven in six runs in his last 10 games while raising his batting average almost 70 points.

Troy Tulowitzki homered twice and drove in three runs to account for all of the offense for the Colorado Rockies. Tulowitzki has seven home runs in June with 14 RBI, five steals and a .350+ batting average.

Rod Barrajas homered for the third time in his last five games, giving him seven home runs on the season. Barrajas has knocked in a run in five of his last six games.

Grady Sizemore returned from a three week stint on the disabled list, going 2-for-5 with two RBI and a triple.

Pitchers:

Tommy Hanson worked 5 1/3 scoreless innings and struck out four to remain perfect on the season at 3-0. His ERA has been good (3.13) but his whip ratio has been not so great (1.61). He had some control problems back in 2008 after being promoted to Double-A walking 3.8 hitters in nine innings. His current walk ratio sits at 5.9 per nine innings after his start on Tuesday.

Joel Piniero tossed a complete game shutout, allowing two hits while striking out one to earn his sixth victory of the season. Despite allowing three runs or less in his last four starts, Piniero only has a 1-3 record to show for it during that span. His current 3.40 ERA is being aided by his minuscule home run rate, allowing only two home runs so far on the season through 92 2/3 innings,  after surrendering 20+ long balls in each of the past five years.

It took him a few starts to get acclimated to the major league, but David Huff seems to have turned it around after hurling eight scoreless innings with two strikeouts on Tuesday. Huff has allowed three runs or less in his last four starts while going 3-0 during that stretch. He should be an option in American League only fantasy baseball leagues.

Zack Greinke allowed one run in eight innings and struck out five to notch his ninth win of the season. Despite winning for the first time in his last five starts, Greinke continues to lead the American League in ERA (1.90), whip ratio (1.02) innings pitched (109) and complete games (5).

Tim Lincecum tossed a complete game, allowing one run while striking out 12 to pick up win number seven on the season. It marked the fourth time that Lincecum has had double digit strikeouts in 2009.

Hiroki Kuroda picked up his first win in five starts since returning from the disabled list on June 1st, allowing two runs in 8 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts.

Max Scherzer allowed two runs in six innings with seven strikeouts to improve his record to 5-4 on the year. Scherzer has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts while going 3-0 during that span.

Brian Tallet tossed six scoreless innings up his mark to 5-4 on the year. He matched his season high with seven strikeouts while allowing only three hits and one walk.

Chad Gaudin allowed two runs in seven innings and struck out 11 for his third win of the season. Gaudin has struck out 19 in his last 13 innings while allowing five runs.

Adam Miller allowed one hit and one run in seven innings in a no decision. Miller struck out four and lowered his ERA to 4.17 on the season.

Closers:

Matt Lindstrom allowed four hits and three runs in 2/3 of an inning. Despite his 14 saves, his other numbers have been a killer to fantasy baseball staffs , with a 6.52 ERA and 1.90 whip ratio on the season.

Joakim Soria worked a scoreless ninth inning to pick up his 8th save of the season, and his first since May 7th.

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Monday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 27th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Hitters:

Jose Guillen, back from the disabled list with a vengeance, launched two home runs and drove in three runs in a 7-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

Michael Young hit his 6th home run in the Texas Rangers 6-4 win over the Baltimore Orioles. He will also gain 3B eligibility this week for those fantasy baseball leagues with a 20 game position eligibility requirement.

Raul Ibanez hit home run number six and drove in four runs. Ibanez is a guy I love to own in fantasy baseball. He keeps getting older, but continue to perform year after year. Plus because of age, he usually goes several rounds later in drafts than he should.

Ryan Zimmerman hit two home runs, score three runs and had 3 RBI and is now batting .295 on the season.

Carlos Pena hit home run number nine and drove in three runs for the Tampa Bay Rays. Pena is now up to 24 RBI on the season.

Dexter Fowler stole five (5!!!) bases against the San Diego Padres. As a team, the Colorado Rockies stole eight in the game.

Troy Tulowitzki – it was only two years ago that he was being compared to a young Derek Jeter as a rookie, now Tulowitzki is headed to the bench to try to break him out of a slump. Hopefully this season he won’t splinter any bats in anger.

Pitchers:

Brian Bannister had his second solid outing since being recalled from Triple-A, allowing one run in seven innings for the Royals.

Joel Pineiro got the win for the St. Louis Cardinals to go to 4-0. Looking closer at his numbers, 26 1/3 innings, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts and a .303 batting average against does not spell long term success. If you own him, I would be looking to trade him at this point.

Tim Wakefield has the knuckle ball dancing so far this year, tossing seven scoreless innings on Monday with five strikeouts.

Cliff Lee seems to be back on track, tossing eight scoreless innings and has now allowed three runs in his last 20 innings

Justin Verlander tossed seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts to pick up his first win of the season. Keep an eye on his home / road splits when he starts. Currently his ERA on the road is 9.00; at home it is 0.75.

Johnny Cueto is putting together a nice start to the 2009 season. Cueto allowed one run in seven innings with five strikeouts and has now given up two runs in his last 18 2/3 innings.

Dan Haren hurled a complete game shutout, allowing two runs with 10 strikeouts. He has been so dominant this season that allowing two runs in nine innings raised his ERA.

Closers:

Joel Hanrahan blew save number three on the year, allowing three runs in 13 of an inning. It is time for the Washington Nationals to give someone else a shot in that role.

Ryan Madson got his first save of the season in place of Brad Lidge who was out with a sore knee. Lidge is considered to be day to day.

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