Just a reminder that if you are looking for more player capsules and stat projections, the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide will be released on February 1 so be sure to check back for that.

1. Roy Halladay – came over to the National League, won 21 games, claimed the CY Young award and tossed 9 complete games for the 3rd straight year. ERA and WHIP was his lowest since 2005. Only thing moving in the wrong direction is his home runs allowed which rose for the 3rd straight season.

2. Tim Lincecum – velocity was down and control was off the first half of the season, in the second half he gave up a few more home runs which caused ERA to rise. Was much more hittable which makes the gap between him and the next two guys ion the list not too big.

3. Adam Wainwright – season was right in line with 2009 numbers. Showed no ill effects from  his 100 innings jump from 2008 to 2009. His five complete games were more than his three previous seasons combined.

4. Felix Hernandez – pretty impressive to see four straight seasons of improvement outside of wins which is a fickle category. Innings up, strikeouts up, ERA and WHIP all trending lower.  Was dominant the second half of the year with a 1.53 ERA and a .94 WHIP.

5. CC Sabathia – stats were almost identical to his 2009 season despite a rough May which saw him post a 5.15 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Should be good for close to 20 wins and 200 strikeouts again.

6. Jon Lester - made nice improvements against right-handed hitters for the second year in a row. Also increased his ground ball rate by 6 percentage points which helped to offset his increase in walks.

7. Cliff Lee – has taken his control to new levels after walking only 18 hitters in 212 1/3 innings as he relies more and more on his cut fastball. The move back to the National League is only going to make his numbers even better.

8. Clayton Kershaw – wins still held somewhat in check by control and pitch count but it has gotten better each season. Very hard to hit when over the plate with a minuscule home run rate that gives him upside still.

9. Justin Verlander – followed up his 2009 breakout season with a similar WHIP and ERA but was unable to keep up his strikeouts losing 1.3 per nine innings.

10. Ubaldo Jiminez – showed improvement across the board in all categories for the second straight year. Was unable to keep up his phenomenal pace the second part of the year as ERA was 3.80 with a 1.30 WHIP.

11. Jered Weaver – was simply a beast at home with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP and only six home runs allowed in 111 1/3 innings. Strike out rate took a big jump allowing him to fan an extra 59 batters in 13 extra innings.

12. Dan Haren – was much better after coming back to the American League, with a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for the Angels. ERA was inflated the first half of the season thanks to 16 home runs allowed in April and May in Arizona.

13. Zack Greinke – lost two strikeouts per game in 2010. Move to the National League and into a possible pennant chase should give him the motivation to be inspired again.

14. David Price - new bullpen behind him will likely make his ERA a little higher in 2011. Still has some work to do on his control to take the next step into the top handful of pitchers.

15. Cole Hamels – strikeout rate picked back up and he made great strides against left-handed hitters holding them to a .196 average. Was stellar after the All-Star break with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning.

16. Josh Johnson – talent is there but so is the injury risk. Was shut down toward the end of 2010 which still leaves him with one season in the major leagues with over 200 innings. First half numbers were simply sick with a 1.70 ERA and a .96 WHIP.

17. Matt Cain – has made strides against left-handed hitters the last two years which has helped his numbers. Control was superb the second half of the season with only 19 walks allowed in 102 innings.

18. Chris Carpenter – ERA jumped a run after his home run rate normalized in 2010. Was much better at home than on the road with a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Busch Stadium vs. 3.75 and 1.36 on the road.

19. Mat Latos - was considered on the bubble heading into spring training last year and ended the season as the Padres best pitcher. Struck out more than a batter per inning after the All-Star break with 90 strikeouts in 78 innings.

20. Tommy Hanson – interesting second half of the year as he lost strikeouts but also cut down his walk rate. Finished the second half with a 2.51 ERA and a .98 WHIP while holding hitters to a .205 average.

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball pitcher projections and more player rankings and capsules, then check out the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now on sale for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers from 2010.

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Two-start pitchers week 20: remember again that the list below is more focused on mixed leagues since in AL or NL only leagues in most cases you do not have the option to rotate too many starting pitchers with the smaller player pool. The pitchers below are listed in alphabetical order by team name per category.

American League:

Start them:

Clay Buchholz (BOS) ~ LAA (Weaver), TOR (Marcum)
John Danks (CHW) ~ @MIN (Baker), @KC (Greinke)
Justin Verlander (DET) ~ @NYY (Sabathia), CLE (Tomlin)
Zack Greinke (KC) ~ CLE (Tomlin), CWS (Danks)
Jered Weaver (LAA) ~ @BOS (Buchholz), @MIN (Baker)
CC Sabathia (NYY) ~ DET (Verlander), SEA (French)
Brett Anderson (OAK) ~ TOR (Marcum), TB (Garza)
David Price (TB) ~ TEX (Lee), @OAK (Anderson)
Matt Garza (TB) ~ TEX (Harden), @OAK (Braden)
Cliff Lee (TEX) ~ @TB (Price), @BAL (Bergesen)
Shaun Marcum (TOR) ~ @OAK (Anderson), @BOS (Buchholz)

Roll the Dice:

Josh Tomlin (CLE) ~ @KC (Greinke), @DET (Verlander)
Max Scherzer (DET) ~ @NYY (Vazquez), CLE (Masterson)
Scott Baker (MIN) ~ CWS (Danks), LAA (Weaver)
Javier Vazquez (NYY) ~ DET (Scherzer), SEA (Fister)
Dallas Braden (OAK) ~ TOR (Cecil), TB (Garza)

Tomlin has been quietly effective in his four starts since being promoted. Just don’ expect a lot of strikeouts from him if you own him or pick him up. Scherzer has been a much better pitcher since returning from a stint at Triple-A, posting a 2.31 ERA in July and holding a 1.93 ERA through two starts in August. Baker is 3-0 in his last four starts and has a 3.46 ERA in two starts vs. the White Sox and allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Angels earlier this season. Vazquez can say what he wants about his velocity being down (which it is) from last season but the biggest problem for him this season has been his lack of control. With 48 walks, he has already surpassed his walk total from last season in 96 less innings. Braden has got back on the win train, going 3-1 in his last four starts and has allowed less than four earned runs in six of his last seven outings.

Sit Them:

Brad Bergesen (BAL) ~ SEA (French), TEX (Lee)
Kevin MIllwood (BAL) ~ SEA (Fister), TEX (Harden)
Luke French (SEA) ~ @BAL (Bergesen), @NYY (Sabathia)
Rich Harden (TEX) ~ @TB (Garza), @BAL (Millwood)

Bergesen has been much better in his last three outings with four runs allowed in 23 innings of work. He has a tough second start match up against Texas and Cliff Lee. Millwood had six straight starts of allowing exactly five runs before allowing four runs combined in his last two starts. He has not picked up a win since back on June 24th. Harden has only gone six innings or more in three of his last 10 starts and now has 50 walks in 74 1/3 innings. His ERA and WHIP can kill your fantasy baseball team in a two-start week at a time when you can least afford it.

National League:

Start them:

Tommy Hanson (ATL) ~ WAS (Olsen), @CHC (Wells)
Chad Billingsley (LAD) ~ @ATL (Jurrjens), CIN (Cueto)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) ~ COL (Francis), CIN (Arroyo)
Jon Niese (NYM) ~ @HOU (Happ), @PIT (McDonald)
Johan Santana (NYM) ~ @HOU (Rodriguez), @PIT (Duke)
Roy Oswalt (HOU) ~ SF (Zito), WAS (Hernandez)
Jon Garland (SD) ~ @CHC (Wells), @MIL (Parra)
Barry Zito (SF) ~ @PHI (Oswalt), @STL (Wainwright)

Roll the Dice:

Daniel Hudson (AZ) ~ CIN (Arroyo), COL (Francis)
Jair Jurrjens (ATL) ~ LAD (Billingsley), @CHC (Gorzelanny)
Tom Gorzelanny (CHC) ~ SD (Correia), ATL (Jurrjens)
Randy Wells (CHC) ~ SD (Garland), ATL (Hanson)
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) ~ @ARI (Hudson), @LAD (Kershaw)
Jeff Francis (COL) ~ @LAD (Kershaw), @ARI (Hudson)
Ricky Nolasco (FLA) ~ @PIT (Duke), HOU (Rodriguez)
Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) ~ NYM (Santana), @FLA (Nolasco)
James McDonald (LAD) ~ FLA (Volstad), NYM (Niese)
Kevin Correia (SD) ~ @CHC (Gorzelanny), @MIL (Narveson)

Arroyo is somewhat of a conundrum with his strikeout rate decreasing yet at the same time he has improved his batting average against the last several seasons. He always seems to get bombed every fifth or sixth start, but in between that, he is usually pretty solid. Ignore the overall stats for Wandy and check out his recent body of work, in which he has allowed one run or less in seven of his last 10 starts, including striking out six or more in seven of those outings. Jurrjens has been basically the same pitcher as last season with a slighlty elevated home run rate which has pushed his ERA higher. Gorzelanny went 4-0 in July despite a 1.63 WHIP and is 0-1 in August with a 4.85 ERA. Can help out with strikeouts but your ERA and WHIP could get dinged next week. Nolasco is 8-2 in his last 10 starts and has dropped his batting average against by 40 points since the All-Star break. Maybe the pressure is off McDonald now that he is out of Los Angeles. He can rack up some good strikeout numbers but has been inconsistent as a starter in his career. Correia has won four of his last five starts, although he has been hit or miss in the strikeout category with zero strikeouts in two of those appearances.

Sit Them:

Chris Volstad (FLA) ~ @PIT (McDonald), HOU (Happ)
J.A. Happ (PHI) ~ NYM (Niese), @FLA (Volstad)
Zach Duke (PIT) ~ FLA (Nolasco), NYM (Santana)
Scott Olsen (WAS) ~ @ATL (Hanson), @PHI (Oswalt)

Volstad has had a WHIP close to two the past two months and has 13 walks against 11 strikeouts in his last 24 2/3 innings. With more walks than strikeouts, I don’t want Happ anywhere near my rotation this late in the season. Outside of July when Duke had a 3.18 ERA in three starts with a 1.06 WHIP, he has been of little use to fantasy baseball teams this season. Olsen was fooling us for awhile with two runs or less allowed in six of seven outings before giving up 12 runs in his last 7 1/3 innings.

Two-start pitchers week 17: remember again that the list below is more focused on mixed leagues since in AL or NL only leagues in most cases you do not have the option to rotate too many starting pitchers with the smaller player pool. The pitchers below are listed in alphabetical order by team name per category.

American League:

Start them:

Clay Buchholz (BOS) ~ @LAA (Pineiro), DET (Verlander)
John Danks (CHW) ~ SEA (Hernandez), OAK (Anderson)
Gavin Floyd (CHW) ~ SEA (Rowland-Smith), OAK (Braden)
Justin Verlander (DET) ~ @TB (Shields), @BOS (Buchholz)
Zack Greinke (KC) ~ MIN (Liriano), BAL (Bergesen)
Francisco Liriano (MIN) ~ @KC (Greinke), SEA (Rowland-Smith)
CC Sabathia (NYY) ~ @CLE (TBD), @TB (Shields)
Felix Hernandez (SEA) ~ @CWS (Danks), @MIN (Slowey)
Colby Lewis (TEX) ~ OAK (Braden), @LAA (Pineiro)

Roll the Dice:

Max Scherzer (DET) ~ @TB (Garza), @BOS (Matsuzaka)
Joel Pineiro (LAA) ~ BOS (Buchholz), TEX (Lewis)
Javier Vazquez (NYY) ~ @CLE (Westbrook), @TB (Garza)
Matt Garza (TB) ~ DET (Scherzer), NYY (Vazquez)
James Shields (TB) ~ DET (Verlander), NYY (Sabathia)
Brandon Morrow (TOR) ~ BAL (Bergesen), CLE (Westbrook)

Although he has two tough match ups, Scherzer is 5-1 in his last seven starts and has a 2.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP through four starts in July. Pineiro had won seven starts without loss before getting hit hard in last start against the New York Yankees. He allowed two runs in six innings against Boston earlier this year and three runs in six innings versus Texas. Vazquez has had an inflated ERA thanks to 17 home runs through 100 innings this year compared to only 20 allowed on 219 1/3 innings in Atlanta last season. He had a 3.23 ERA with a .97 WHIP in June and is 2.84, 1.00 so far in July. Shields has been sliding after starting the season with two goods months. His ERA was 7.67 in June and is 5.47 so far in July. In three starts against New York this year, he has a 3.86 ERA and has yet to face Detroit this season. Morrow has regressed in July after dominating in June. In July he has a 5.82 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. If you own him, I think there has to be concern for him the rest of the season. He is at 107 innings on the year which is already close to his career high of 124 2/3 between Triple-A and the major leagues last season.

Sit Them:

Kevin Millwood (BAL) ~ @TOR (Romero), @KC (Chen)
Brad Bergesen (BAL) ~ @TOR (Morrow), @KC (Greinke)
Jake Westbrook (CLE) ~ NYY (Vazquez), @TOR (Morrow)
Bruce Chen (KC) ~ MIN (Pavano), BAL (Millwood)
Dallas Braden (OAK) ~ @TEX (Lewis), @CWS (Floyd)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (SEA) ~ @CWS (Floyd), @MIN (Liriano)

Braden has not won since his perfect game back on May 9th and has allowed 20 hits in his last 10 2/3 innings. Rowland-Smith’s last win came back on June 20th. Since that time, he has allowed five runs in his three of his last seven starts. Chen was decent in June but has since come back down to earth in July with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP ratio. Westbrook has gone six innings in four of his last five starts with a 2-2 record during that time. He has a 3.72 ERA against Toronto in his two starts this season. One thing to keep in mind is that he has been mentioned in trade rumors and with the deadline next Saturday, there is a slight chance he could miss the second start of the week.

National League:

Start them:

Ryan Dempster (CHC) ~ @HOU (Wright), @COL (De La Rosa)
Josh Johnson (FLA) ~ @SF (Cain), @SD (Garland)
Jon Niese (NYM) ~ STL (Garcia), ATL (Haren)
Cole Hamels (PHI) ~ ARI (Haren), @WAS (Strasburg)
Barry Zito (SF) ~ FLA (Nolasco), LAD (Kershaw)
Matt Cain (SF) ~ FLA (Johnson), LAD (Billingsley)
Jaime Garcia (STL) ~ @NYM (Niese), PIT (Duke)
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) ~ ATL (Hanson), PHI (Hamels)

Roll the Dice:

Dan Haren (AZ) ~ @PHI (Hamels), @NYM (Niese)
Tommy Hanson (ATL) ~ @WAS (Strasburg), @CIN (Arroyo)
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) ~ @MIL (Wolf), ATL (Hanson)
Jason Hammel (COL) ~ @PHI (Blanton), CHC (Silva)
Ricky Nolasco (FLA) ~ @SF (Zito), @SD (LeBlanc)
Chad Billingsley (LAD) ~ @SD (Garland), @SF (Cain)
Jon Garland (SD) ~ LAD (Billingsley), FLA (Johnson)

Haren is a risky play this week with the possibility of being traded and missing a start in addition to him not winning a start since June 12th. He is still racking up strikeouts, but his batting average against is 61 points higher than it was last season. Throw out Hanson’s two interleague bombings and he has not given up more than two runs in a start since back on May 20th when he gave up eight against Cincinnati. Hammel had not lost since May 21st before dropping his last two decisions although he was not too bad in them. He has yet to face either team he pitches against next week this season. Nolasco has won five of his last six starts with four runs allowed or less in all of them. He owns a 3.29 ERA in July with a 1.10 WHIP.  Garland’s ERA has risen a run and a half since May 30th when he had a 2.15 ERA. He has a tough second start against Josh Johnson and Florida.

Sit Them:

Jorge De La Rosa (COL) ~ PIT (Duke), CHC (Dempster)
Wesley Wright (HOU) ~ CHC (Dempster), MIL (Wolf)
Randy Wolf (MIL) ~ CIN (Arroyo), @HOU (Wright)
Joe Blanton (PHI) ~ COL (Hammel), @WAS (Lannan)
Zach Duke (PIT) ~ @COL (De La Rosa), @STL (Garcia)

Wolf has had an ERA over 5.50 each of the last three months and a WHIP over 1.52. I don’t need to remind you how brutal his last start was. De La Rosa has been bad in two of his three starts since returning to action with his last start much better, allowing two runs in six innings against Florida. Duke had lost five straight starts before breaking into the win column in his last game against Milwaukee. Blanton has allowed exactly three runs in five of his last seven starts while surrendering five runs each in the other two.

Injuries:

Miguel Montero is only expected to miss 4-6 weeks of action which puts his return at the end of May. That makes him worth holding on to still in all fantasy baseball league formats.

Jimmy Rollins will be on the shelf for the next 2-4 weeks with a calf strain. Juan Castro will assume shortstop duties in his absence.

Closer news:

Kevin Gregg was named new closer in Toronto by manager Cito Gaston. If you own Jason Frasor, I would still hold on to him. This could be a role that flip-flops several times during the course of the season.

Mike Gonzalez of the Baltimore Orioles was placed on the disabled list with a strained shoulder. That would account for the drop in velocity we were seeing from Gonzalez this year. Jim Johnson will take over as closer until Gonzalez returns to action.

Fernando Rodney picked up his first save of the season as the fill-in closer for Brian Fuentes who was placed on the disabled list Wednesday with a strained back

Hitters:

Jose Guillen went 3-for-4 and hit his fifth home of the season giving him five home runs in his last four games.

It looks like Dustin Pedroia can talk the talk and walk the walk. After spinning tales in spring training of hitting 20 home runs in 2010, Pedroia is well on his way after banging out his 4th home run of the season Wednesday night.

B.J. Upton drove four runs on his first two home runs of the season.

Nelson Cruz hit his 6th home run of the season giving him 12 RBI on the year. If the first two hitters in the order were hitting over .200, he might have 20 RBI by now.

Chase Utley went 2-for-4 with four RBI and hit two home runs giving four overall on the season.

Carlos Quentin went 2-for-5 and drove in six runs, four of them coming on a grand slam.

Jorge Cantu hit his third home run of the season and became the first player in the history of the major leagues to chalk up at least one hit and RBI in the team’s first nine games of the season.

Pitchers:

Joel Pineiro allowed one run in seven innings with seven strikeouts to pick up his first win of the season.

David Price allowed one run in seven innings with seven strikeouts to notch his second win of the season.

Jonathan Sanchez worked eight shutout innings with 11 strikeouts to gain his first win of the season.

Colby Lewis struck out 10 in 5 1/3 innings of work while allowing two runs. The downside was it took him 117 pitches to record those outs.

John Danks allowed one run in seven innings while recording six strikeouts to get his first victory of the season.

Brad Penny tossed seven shutout innings with four strikeouts to claim his first win of the year.

Tommy Hanson evened his record at 1-1, hurling six innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts.

Heading into the draft with the #1 pick, I was still debating on Albert Pujols vs. Hanley Ramirez and also how I was going to cope with waiting 28 picks between rounds because of the snake draft. Here is a look at the team with the rounds they were drafted in parenthesis.

Hitters:

C – Victor Martinez (2) – same as in my auction, one of the guys I was targeting, as I have written many times before, I don’t believe in punting the catcher position.

C – Russell Martin (11) – again, same comment applies from my auction, I wasn’t looking to get Martin, but I needed his 10 stolen bases.

1B – Albert Pujols (1) – despite the numerous fantasy baseball leagues I play in each year, I have not owned Pujols a full year since his rookie season. I was debating on Hanley Ramirez, but I took Pujols and hoped that Jose Reyes would make it back to me at the end of round two, but unfortunately he did not.

2B – Brandon Phillips (2) – in my mock drafts I was debating between him and Dustin Pedroia. Since Pedroia was off the board at my pick, it made the decision easier.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (10) – high average, should steal a few bases and should score a lot of runs hitting lead off.

3B – Chone Figgins (6) – Not sure I really wanted him, but with Juan Pierre my outfield target already off the board I figured I better grab the stolen bases while I could.

Cor – Paul Konerko (14) – I was very happy he slid back to me.

Mid – Jose Lopez (8) – was happy to get 20 home runs from a middle infielder

OF – Shin-Soo Choo (4) – one of my targets, love to get 20-20 outfielders.

OF – Franklin Gutierrez (12) – hoping that he gets up to 20-20 this season.

OF – Lastings Milledge (16) – same comment as on my auction team, not a huge fan of his, but needed 20 steals and he was the best fit. He is only 25 so there is still some upside there.

OF – Cody Ross (18) – mmm, not much to say.

OF – Will Venable (20) – for some reason I like him, not sure why, I think he has the chance to steal 20 bases with a little bit of power.

UT – Aaron Rowand (22) – really embarrassed to have to type that.

Overall, I am short on power unless Pujols hits 50 and Brandon Phillips hits 30. My outfield is in bad shape, but somehow the rest of my other categories I seem to have met my targets on, although my batting average might be a percentage or two lower than what I need.

Pitchers:

P – Tommy Hanson (5) – picking at #1, I knew that if I did not take a pitcher here, there was not going to be anyone in the top tier left at my next pick.

P – Chad Billingsley (7) – I like him and am willing to discount his second half of last season.

P – Randy Wolf  (15) – decent strikeouts, ERA and WHIP should be higher than in 2009, but still a guy I like in round 15.

P – Brian Matusz (17) – has been getting some hype this spring, but still pitches in the American League East which limits his upside slightly.

P – Ian Kennedy (19) – despite his injuries in the past, I still believe in his minor league numbers and the move to the National League should help, despite his new home ballpark.

P – Bronson Arroyo (21) – just have to keep reminding him, “no guitar, no guitar”.

P – Bud Norris (23) – still a pitch short of being a successful starting pitcher. I like him for his strikeouts, will have to spot start him.

RP – Jose Valverde (9) – I think he is in the second tier of closers after the top 3-4.

RP – Bobby Jenks (13) – crossing my fingers he holds it together for the full season.

I like my staff a lot more than the staff from my auction team. I think Hanson and Billingsley are two solid anchors and Kennedy and Matusz have some upside. I have some work to do on my ratios based on my projections unless Matusz, Kennedy and Norris are able to make some improvements.

Reserves:

Rd 1 – Jeremy Hellickson – I expect him up by the middle of the season although it is hard to see who he would replace based on the current Tampa Bay rotation.

Rd 2 – Jose Guillen – not sure if this is better or worse than Aaron Rowand

Rd 3 – Mike Adams – when / if Heath Bell gets traded, I think Adams takes over.

Rd 4 – C.J. Wilson – a flier

Rd 5 – Chris Carter (Oakland) – with Oakland short on power, I think he is up in July.

Rd 6 – Ramon Ortiz – late round gamble on him winning the 5th starter job with the Dodgers

Rd 7 – David Bush – Rick Peterson will work his magic with at least one Milwaukee Brewers pitcher, hopefully I picked the right one.

2010 Atlanta Braves Projected Batting Order:

1.  CF Nate McLouth (ADP 82)
2.  2B Martin Prado  (ADP 208)
3.  3B Chipper Jones (ADP 128)
4.  1B Troy Glaus (ADP 261)
5.  C Brian McCann (ADP 42)
6.  SS Yunel Escobar (ADP 149)
7.  RF Jason Heyward (ADP 244)
8.  LF Melky Cabrera (ADP 307)

2010 Atlanta Braves Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  Tim Hudson (ADP 211)
2.  Derek Lowe (ADP 334)
3.  Jair Jurrjens (ADP 138)
4.  Tommy Hanson (ADP 85)
5.  Kenshin Kawakami (ADP 388)

Closer – Billy Wagner (ADP 142)
Handcuff – Takashi Saito

2010 Atlanta Braves prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Jason Heyward – RF

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

I have Ryan Dempster 11 spots higher on my starting pitcher list than his current ADP ranking. Numbers from 2008 and 2009 were pretty close to the same except for a drop in wins and some regression to his ERA that was to be expected. Has a much better percent chance of striking out 175+, having an ERA under 3.7 and a WHIP under 1.3 than quite a few people that are currently being drafted ahead of him.

Gavin Floyd was a top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies and one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues when he was coming up through the farm system. It took him a little over 170 innings at the major league level before finally settling into a groove so the struggles he encountered still have some people not giving him enough credit. Bumped up his strikeout rate 1.3 per nine last season and decreased his home run rate. ERA went up slightly only because of the ineffectiveness of the bullpen behind him.

Hiroki Kuroda is ranked 50th on my list and is 66th according to his current average draft position. Injuries kept his innings down in 2009 which might partially explain his current standing. But in the innings he did pitch, he improved his strikeout per nine ratio by a batter.

Overvalued:

Starting pitchers in general. Last year in the NFBC, there were only three pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks on average. Those were Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. This season there are eight pitchers with a current fantasy baseball ADP in the top 50.

If you look at the top 15 pitchers based on where they were drafted in the NFBC last season, you could argue that half of them were busts or went too high, either based on injury or performance. Those would include Santana, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Even though they did not have terrible seasons, you could add Chad Billingsley and James Shields to that list as well as their actual value turned out to be much lower than where they were drafted.

Cliff Lee seems to scream overvalued to me based on where he is going in fantasy baseball mock drafts. Moves back to the American League where his control was not as sharp as it was in the NL. Will see a drop in his strikeout rate and if his strand rate which was higher than average the last two seasons regresses, his ERA is going to jump as well. Now, I am not saying to stay away from him, just that there several better options than him when you are on the clock to make your draft choice.

As I wrote about Javier Vazquez in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers, I just don’t see how he is being drafted as high as he is. The move back to the American League (drop in strikeouts, higher ERA and WHIP) coupled with the move to the Eastern division and playing in New York (4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when last with Yankees) means there is some regression coming to his 2009 numbers. Remember that you should be drafting players based on what they will do in 2010 and not what they did last season. I still see way too many people doing that. There are variables every year that impact performance and you need to be able to take these into account when the information is available to you.

A.J. Burnett I have ranked as the 37th pitcher compared to his ADP that places him at 29. An ERA over 4, plus a WHIP that hit 1.40 last season combined with a past injury history makes me leery of grabbing him too high in a mixed league draft. If  you wait to draft starting pitchers and he is one of the top two pitchers on your team, you are going to need to surround with him low ratio pitchers so you don’t feel the full impact of his lack of control.

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• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be closers.

One of the things I look at when I am doing the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers is strikeouts. While I use that category in conjunction with several others, I think to pick one category and have it stand alone by itself, strikeouts are the most important.

The biggest reason is because strikeouts limit the damage to ERA numbers. Once the ball is hit and put in play, the pitcher becomes subjective to too many things out of his control. He has to worry about his defense being able to field the ball, the luck of where the ball is placed when hit, in addition to possibly giving up a home run which factors in the weather for the day as well as the dimensions of the ballpark among other things.

It also limits the ERA in respect to staying out of the big inning. If there is man on third base and as a pitcher you cannot afford to give up a hit anywhere on the diamond, be it fly ball or ground ball, you need to have the stuff to be able to bear down and strike out a hitter when needed.

With that said, here is a listing of the top starting pitchers from 2009 with the highest percentage of swing and miss strikes.

1) Rich Harden – 26%

2) Francisco Liriano – 20%

3) Jorge de la Rosa – 19%

4) Ryan Dempster – 19%

5) Jonathan Sanchez – 19%

6) Javier Vazquez – 19%

7) Chad Billingsley – 18%

8.) Neftali Feliz – 18%

9) Gio Gonzalez – 18%

10) Cole Hamels – 18%

11) Felix Hernandez – 18%

12) Mat Latos – 18%

13) Jon Lester – 18%

14) Tim Lincecum – 18%

15) Bud Norris – 18%

16) CC Sabathia – 18%

17) Justin Verlander – 18%

18) Clay Buchholz – 17%

19) Gavin Floyd – 17%

20) Tommy Hanson – 17%

I included Feliz assuming he will be a starting pitcher this year. Interesting to see a few rookies like Latos and Norris appear. Liriano in second position shows he still has good stuff, just a matter of his confidence improving. Two guys that people are discounting this season according to their fantasy baseball ADP are Hamels and Billingsley who are both on the list so I expect them to bounce back from seasons that were below expectations.

Take note that on Monday, 2/15 I will be releasing the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $9.99. It’s better than any magazine you will find on the stands because the information will be updated weekly up until Opening Day and the data will be in excel format so it will be easy to use. For that low price, you will get:

• Over 450 player projections – easily sortable by league or position. Includes all player ages as of Opening Day.
• All of the player notes that have been posted on the website as a quick cheat sheet to use during your draft.
• Expanded player rankings for all positions.
• A weekly article (that will not appear on the website) in regards to fantasy strategy for winning an auction or draft league.
• An in-depth article on how to use the player projections. Player rankings and projections are great, but if they are not used correctly, you are not getting the most out of them.
• Advice and guidance from someone that has been in the trenches and won leagues before. A lot of people writing articles or doing projections are just that, writers that have not been able to successfully win at fantasy baseball. In the 20 years that I have been playing fantasy baseball, I have won draft and auction leagues in multiple formats and can relate that information to you the reader.

This is the eighth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the starting pitchers.

1) Tim Lincecum – totaled 260+ strikeouts for the second straight season. People worry about his size and that he might break down, but the pitching motion taught to him by his dad seems to be working out so far. Has replaced John Santana as the one pitcher that will go in the first round in fantasy baseball drafts.

2) Roy Halladay – has turned up the strikeouts the last two seasons boosting his K/9 ratio by two per game. Has won 16+ games four consecutive years with an offense not as good as the new one he will be playing for in Philadelphia. Also gets the benefit of moving from the American League East to National League East which should only help his numbers. Great chance that he gets his third 20 win season this year. To fully the realize the impact of what a move from the American League to the National League means, check out the numbers for Cliff Lee and Javier Vazquez last season.

3) Dan Haren – mirror seasons almost between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. Three consecutive years of almost 200 strikeouts and a tight range of numbers for his ERA and WHIP ratio. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters. As consistent as they come.

4) Zack Greinke – the mental part of his game finally caught up to the talent and a star was realized. A phenomenal season in 2009 but I don’t want to pay for a repeat that is not likely happening in 2010. Did not allow more than three earned runs in a start until the beginning of June. Let’s see what happens if he faces some adversity this season and how he copes with it.

5) Felix Hernandez – third straight season of falling ERA as he has now shaved a full two earned runs from his mark in 2006. High strand rate kept his ERA under three so expect some correction there. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters.

6) CC Sabathia – concerns about workload early in his career never materialized as he has been a workhorse every season. Best chance in the American League to crack 20 wins with the offense around him and a stud closer. Much better the second half of the season with a 2.74 ERA and a strikeout per inning.

7) Justin Verlander – a combination of lowering his walk rate by 1.5 per nine innings and boosting his strikeout rate by 2.8 per nine allowed him to edge out Lincecum for the strikeout title. Much better pitcher at home last season with 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Comerica Park vs. 4.04 and 1.26 on the road.

8.) Johan Santana – underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in September and is supposed to be ready for spring training. Can’t assume an automatic bounce back to 2007 as his strikeout was down the last two years upon moving to the National League which is not a good sign. Usually a move to the league with no designate hitter boosts a pitchers strikeout numbers. Watch his stats in spring training to see how he is performing.

9) Adam Wainwright – was death on right-handed hitters last year, holding them to a .217 batting average. Dominant after the All-Star break with a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP ratio. Should be good for more of the same in 2010 if his arm can handle the 100 inning jump.

10) Josh Johnson – really not that far off from his 2006 season when he was last healthy except with better command. Like Wainwright, had a 100 innings jump from 2008 to 2009. Does having undergone Tommy John surgery already preclude him from future injury risk? I guess only time will tell.

11) Jon Lester – HUGE jump in strikeout numbers, boosting his K/9 rate by 3.5. After an awful first two months of the season, he was dominant the rest of the way with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.

12) Tommy Hanson – his .225 batting average against would have been seventh best if he had enough innings to qualify. Took some time to adjust to the major leagues the first half of the season. Flashed his stuff after the All-Star break with a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. Right-handed hitters had no chance against him, batting a meager .192.

13) Chris Carpenter – numbers are terrific but age (will be 35 in April) plus his injury history makes him less than reliable. Has spent time on the disabled list four straight seasons. May be worth owning only if he falls a few rounds in the draft or you can get him at a discount in an auction. Tough to own him at full price knowing the odds are stacked against you.

14) Cliff Lee – fantasy baseball ADP slightly higher than where I see him. Sure, he was a beast in Philadelphia, but now he is back in the American League. Before the trade, control in Cleveland was worse than 2008 with 1.30 WHIP in ’09 vs. 1.11 in ’08. Strikeout rate was also slightly down with 6.9 in ’08 and 6.3 in ’09 in American League. When is off, the numbers can be tough to stomach. Had five starts where he gave up six or more earned runs in a game.

15) Josh Beckett – numbers turn out fine at the end of the season, but always seems to have a month or two each year where he gets clobbered so keep that in mind if you own him for the first time. Set a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts in 2009. Has only manged to toss 200 innings or more in three of eight seasons.

16) Yovani Gallardo – despite missing all of 2008, turned in a good season in 2009. Win total held in check due to control issues and pitch count numbers that keep him from working deeper in games. Managed to make it to six innings or more in just 17 of his 30 starts. Splits seem to show that he wore down the second half of the season. Had a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half and went 4.56 and 1.45 after the All-Star break.

17) Matt Cain – got his head back in the game in 2009 after struggling with lack of run support in 2008. Had the lowest run support of any starting pitcher in 2008 and it affected him on the mound. Got an extra 1.24 runs per mound appearance in ’09 and pitched much better. Strand rate kept his ERA low so expect a little regression this season.

18) Cole Hamels – not much difference in 2008 vs. 2009 except for being much more hittable by right-handed hitters. After allowing a .215 batting average in ’08, that number rocketed up to .282 in ’09. Much better after the All-Star break with a 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9 rate. First half featured elbow issues in March and an injured ankle in May that probably accounted for the higher numbers. No reason for him not to return to 2008 levels.

19) Jake Peavy – some risk to him,  having thrown 200 innings in only three of six seasons. Loses the comfort of Petco Park which helped to surpress his ERA. Strikeout rate probably drops by at least one per game with the move to the American League.

20) Ubaldo Jimenez – how much the world has changed that a Colorado Rockies pitcher would crack the top 20 starters. Ground ball rate of 53% helps to limit some of the impact of Coors Field. Limits damage by keeping hits in the ballpark. Ranked seventh in home runs allowed in ’09 and tied for second in long balls surrendered in ’08.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers 21-40.

Brandon Inge homered for the second consecutive day and drove in two runs, giving him four home runs and nine RBI in his last 10 games. Inge has already surpassed his second highest total for home runs in his career and is now taking aim at his season best mark of 27. He should have no problem breaking that level if he continues at his current home run rate of one every 14 at bats compared to his 2006 rate of one home run every 20 at bats. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Tuesday…

Hitters:

Chase Utley went 3-for-5 with four RBI and homered for the 16th time in 2009. The home run was the fourth in June for Utley who remains on pace to possibly set career best marks in home runs (39) and RBI (119).

Jason Bay went 4-for-6 with three runs scored and three RBI. Bay blasted his 19th home run of the year and now has 69 RBI in 69 games played.

Brian McCann went 3-for-4 with two RBI and connected for his seventh home run on the season. The home run for McCann was his first in the last two weeks, leaving him on pace for 19 home runs and 83 RBI.

Jacob Ellsbury went 4-for-4 with three RBI and stole his 30th base of the season. Ellsbury has hit two of his three home runs on the year in his last 10 games, driving in eight runs and stealing seven bases during that period.

Matt Wieters went 2-for-4 with his second home in five games. Wieters has driven in six runs in his last 10 games while raising his batting average almost 70 points.

Troy Tulowitzki homered twice and drove in three runs to account for all of the offense for the Colorado Rockies. Tulowitzki has seven home runs in June with 14 RBI, five steals and a .350+ batting average.

Rod Barrajas homered for the third time in his last five games, giving him seven home runs on the season. Barrajas has knocked in a run in five of his last six games.

Grady Sizemore returned from a three week stint on the disabled list, going 2-for-5 with two RBI and a triple.

Pitchers:

Tommy Hanson worked 5 1/3 scoreless innings and struck out four to remain perfect on the season at 3-0. His ERA has been good (3.13) but his whip ratio has been not so great (1.61). He had some control problems back in 2008 after being promoted to Double-A walking 3.8 hitters in nine innings. His current walk ratio sits at 5.9 per nine innings after his start on Tuesday.

Joel Piniero tossed a complete game shutout, allowing two hits while striking out one to earn his sixth victory of the season. Despite allowing three runs or less in his last four starts, Piniero only has a 1-3 record to show for it during that span. His current 3.40 ERA is being aided by his minuscule home run rate, allowing only two home runs so far on the season through 92 2/3 innings,  after surrendering 20+ long balls in each of the past five years.

It took him a few starts to get acclimated to the major league, but David Huff seems to have turned it around after hurling eight scoreless innings with two strikeouts on Tuesday. Huff has allowed three runs or less in his last four starts while going 3-0 during that stretch. He should be an option in American League only fantasy baseball leagues.

Zack Greinke allowed one run in eight innings and struck out five to notch his ninth win of the season. Despite winning for the first time in his last five starts, Greinke continues to lead the American League in ERA (1.90), whip ratio (1.02) innings pitched (109) and complete games (5).

Tim Lincecum tossed a complete game, allowing one run while striking out 12 to pick up win number seven on the season. It marked the fourth time that Lincecum has had double digit strikeouts in 2009.

Hiroki Kuroda picked up his first win in five starts since returning from the disabled list on June 1st, allowing two runs in 8 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts.

Max Scherzer allowed two runs in six innings with seven strikeouts to improve his record to 5-4 on the year. Scherzer has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts while going 3-0 during that span.

Brian Tallet tossed six scoreless innings up his mark to 5-4 on the year. He matched his season high with seven strikeouts while allowing only three hits and one walk.

Chad Gaudin allowed two runs in seven innings and struck out 11 for his third win of the season. Gaudin has struck out 19 in his last 13 innings while allowing five runs.

Adam Miller allowed one hit and one run in seven innings in a no decision. Miller struck out four and lowered his ERA to 4.17 on the season.

Closers:

Matt Lindstrom allowed four hits and three runs in 2/3 of an inning. Despite his 14 saves, his other numbers have been a killer to fantasy baseball staffs , with a 6.52 ERA and 1.90 whip ratio on the season.

Joakim Soria worked a scoreless ninth inning to pick up his 8th save of the season, and his first since May 7th.