Posts Tagged ‘tiers’

2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 26th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball catchers.

Tier 1 – Russ Martin, Brian McCann

Tier 2 – Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez

Tier 3 – Ryan Doumit, Chris Ianetta, Bengie Molina

Tier 4 – Jorge Posada, A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez

Tier 5 – Kelly Shoppach, Ivan Rodriguez, Chris Snyder, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli

Tier 6 – John Baker, Miguel Olivo, Brandon Igne

Tier 7 – Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, George Laird, Yadier Molina, Jesus Flores, Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas, Brian Schneider

Martin and McCann are going two picks apart according to their average draft position (ADP). However, I would opt for Martin over McCann every time with the bonus of 20 steals coming from the catcher position. Martin’s power might fluctuate more from year-to-year in the 13-20 home run range, while McCann has 20-25 home run power, the steals more than make up for the difference since the other categories of batting average, runs and rbi are close.

Soto is close to the first tier, but I would like to see his put up the same stats for a second year in a row before I bump him up to that group. The power potential he had exhibited in 2007 in the minor leagues carried over last season as he clubbed the same number of home runs as McCann did. Throw the last season out the window for Victor Martinez as he battled injuries that reduced his power. He has already hit three home runs this spring, which is more that what he hit last season in 266 at bats. Expect a return to numbers that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Doumit’s power numbers in 2008 were pretty much in line with what he had done the two previous seasons, when you look at the at bat totals. The .319 average might have been a little over his head. His career minor league minor league average was .296, and I see him more in the .285-.300 range annually. Iannetta offers a little more power than Doumit, but a lower batting average, even taking into account Ianetta plays his home games at Coors field. Bengie Molina always seems to be underrated. He is old and plays for the San Francisco Giants who have a somewhat weak offense, but that benefits Molina who hit cleanup and has driven in 80+ runs each of the last two seasons. The only downside is his runs scored which  has been below 46 the last two years with the Giants.

Posada comes off of shoulder surgery in 2008 that limited him to only 168 at bats. So far this spring, he seems in line to be ready to play on Opening Day. He might be limited to around 400-450 at bats, which puts him at around 13-15 home runs, with 55 runs scored and 65 rbi. Pierzynski, or AJP for ease of typing purposes is solid every season. You know what you are going to get with him, an average around .280 with 14 home runs, 60 rbi and 60 runs scored. Ramon Hernandez moves to the the National League this season and should be able to put up similar stats to AJP but with a batting average in the .255-.265 range.

Shoppach has some thunder in his bat, but the question is how many at bats is he going to get this season. I am pegging him for around 400 which gives him the possibility to hit 15-20 home runs. He has already hit four home runs this spring. Rodriguez heads to the National League after recently signing with the Houston Astros. It looks like from his first few games with the Astros that he might be hitting second in the batting order. I see Rodriguez putting up a stat line of .270 with 70 runs, 12 home runs, 65 rbi and 8 stolen bases. Chris Snyder offers 15 home run power with a some batting average downside. He seemed to get more hack happy last season as he struck out 34 more time in only eight more at bats than the previous year. Wieters has already been told he is being sent down to the minors, but he should be back in the major leagues by May. Of course, this is the Baltimore Orioles we a re talking about so even that might not be a certainty. He is hitting .343 this spring with more walks than strikeouts (4/3) which is always nice to see from a young hitter. Napoli is recovering from shoulder surgery and there is a chance that he might start the season on the disabled yes. He has 20 home run potential, but because he has never had more than 269 at bats in the previous three seasons, his runs scored and rbi remain low.

Baker was part of the Oakland A’s draft made famous by the book “Moneyball”. Now in his first year as a starting major league catcher, he has a chance to put up some decent numbers for the Florida Marlins. It looks like Baker will be hitting second this season. Expect a year around .280-70-11-60. Miquel Olivo was promised the starting catcher by the Kansas City Royals back in November and so far the coach speak has them sticking with the plan. Even with Olivo as the starter, John Buck will still start possibly 2-3 games per week. Olivo has the power to hit 15 home runs so if he can start off the season hot, he will keep Buck relegated to bench duty. Inge should see a return to 500 at bats this season as a starter once again. That may be a bad thing if you have him on your fantasy roster as the more at bats does more damage to your team batting average. He has the ability to put up some decent numbers, to the tune of 15 home runs and 70 rbi, but you better have a lot of .300 hitters on your team to carry his sub .230 average.

Tier 7 I have in no real order. Best I can say is put all of the names in the hat, pull one out and hope you get Yahtzee. You only would have to worry about a tier 7 in leagues that require you to draft two catchers. If you do, make sure you don’t get sutck with one of them. There is no reason to end up with two weak catchers or even one weak catcher even in a 14 or 15 team league. Don’t let the catcher spot on your roster put you at a disadvantage against the other owners in your league.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 23rd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball third basemen.

Tier 1 – David Wright

Tier 2 – Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez,

Tier 3 – Chipper Jones

Tier 4 – Garrett Atkins, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Guillen

Tier 5 – Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Aubrey Huff, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Tier 6 – Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Chone Figgins

Tier 7 – Joe Crede, Josh Fields, Bill Hall, Scott Rolen, Ian Stewart

I currently have Wright ranked number three overall. His stolen bases could take a hit with Jerry Manuel the manager now for the entire season, but he is outstanding in every category.

Evan Longoria I have as the second best third basemen. He put up the same number of home runs as Aramis Ramirez in 100 less at bats last season. In another year, Longoria will be battling David Wright and A-Rod for the  number one ranking at 3b.

Alex Rodriguez looks like he will miss roughly 25-30 games which puts him just at the end of round two in 15 team league drafts. He still should end up around30 home runs, 90 rbi and 15 steals.

Chipper Jones has a tier all to himself.  His current ADP puts him at 54, or the end of the fourth round. If you select him, make sure you take a quality backup later in the draft knowing Jones will miss at least 20-30 games during the season. The .320+ average makes him worth the pick.

I wanted to put Atkins in Tier 3, but with numbers that have fallen two years in a row and Ian Stewart lurking to steal some at bats, plus the potential for a trade out of Colorado he becomes Tier 4. Cantu’s season was not that much of a breakout last year except for batting average. His numbers in 2006 showed the potential for 25+ home runs if he could get the at bats. He also adds flexibility to your roster by qualifying at 1b. I love the fact that fantasy people owners discount players coming off of injuries or down years like there is no such thing as a bounce back. I like Guillen in Tier 4 and best of all you can probably get him later in the draft as he has been going behind 7 other third basemen I have not even listed yet. Qualifies at 3b, 1B and will qualify at OF in week four. Is a solid .300 hitter and with the potential to steal 10-15 bases plus hit 20 home runs makes him undervalued in drafts for this year.

Tier 5, I threw a bunch of people together. Their stats are all kind of similar. I like Beltre a little bit more for the bonus steals he can provide. Zimmerman could be a nice pick if he can recover his power after his injuries last season. Huff is due for regression after doubling his home run total from 2007. Encarnacion seems to have promise but has yet to fulfill it yet. Reynolds’ stats look like Ryan Howard lite with the strikeouts and low batting average. Kouzmanoff plays in the vast wasteland that is Petco Park and is surrounded by the weakest lineup in baseball.

Tier 6, I don’t think that Melvin Mora has discovered the fountain of youth in his late thirties so expect a drop off in performance in 2009. Alex Gordon is still trying to live up to the hype generated several years ago. He is always drafted way too early in fantasy drafts as people expect his breakout season to come one of these years. Figgins was a third or fourth round pick a few years ago, but a few hamstring injuries later and his stats seem Ryan Theriot like, which is okay, but not for a corner infielder.

This might be the last season for Josh Fields to prove that he belongs in the major leaues with Dayan Viciedo pushing him. Don’t waste a pick on Bill Hall, Matt Gamel will be up for the Milwaukee Brewers at some point this season if he can improve his fielding.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 19th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

We have focused quite a few articles on ADP (average draft position) recently so now I want to tie that into another fantasy baseball tool which is the tiered system for player rankings.

A lot of the magazines or web sites for fantasy baseball have cheat sheets, but it is mostly a ranking by position of one to whatever number.  While it is good to know the order of what player you would draft before another on your sheet, most of the time you don’t have an idea of what the difference is between the two players.

That’s where having a tiered system to your draft sheet comes in handy, so you have an idea of what round you can take a particular player in, or if you can wait several rounds and get the same type of stats. It will also help prepare you so you are not left out if there is a run on a particular position.

If you combine a tiered system to drafting, along with doing your own mock draft based on your draft slot and using ADP, you will be able to improve your draft performances. Let’s take a look at first base and how a tiered system would apply.

First Base:

Tier 1 – Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera

Tier 2 – Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira, Lance Berkman

Tier 3 – Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez

Tier 4 – Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, Derek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Chris Davis

Tier 5 – Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Jason Giambi, Mike Jacobs, Adam LaRoche

Tier 6 – James Loney, Casey Kotchman, Pablo Sandoval, Todd Helton

Tier 7 – Ryan Garko, Nick Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Chad Tracy

Pujols and Cabrera are the top two players at first base so they get the Tier 1 ranking. In 2007, check the numbers, they had almost identical seasons with Cabrera’s slightly better. In 2008, home runs were the same, rbi went to Cabrera, runs to Pujols, but the big difference was the 60 point difference in batting average. Pujols was 30 points higher than the year before and Cabrera was roughly 30 points lower than the year before. Tier 2, Howard for his huge power numbers, although his average costs you anywhere from 2-3 points (from a team average of .283 to .280) by rostering him instead of a Texeira or Berkman. Texeira and Berkman round out the second tier because they are both .300 average, 30 plus home runs and 100+ runs and rbi, with Berkman getting the additional handful of stolen bases. Tier 3, I have Fielder, who I think is closer to a .280 35 hr 100 rbi hitter, grouped with Mourneau who falls just outside of Berkman and Texeira for inconsistencies in 30 home run power from year to year and Adrian Gonzalez who is 30-100-100 in the .280 average range.

Heading into the draft using the #5 draft slot as an example, assuming a 15 team league and using the ADP from Mock Draft Central, the question is who is your first round pick, assuming Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Jose Reyes are gone. With Alex Rodriguez hurt, pick #5 to me becomes the biggest question mark pick of the first round. You need to be able to have someone close in ability to the top four players already taken, and someone better than the players that are picked 6-15 in the remainder of the round. If you are considering Cabrera with the 5th pick, you need to look at your tier list and the ADP and see what that means. My question if I had that pick is, if I do not take Cabrera in round 1, what are my other options? Based on ADP, there is a chance Fielder slides to your second pick (26 overall) but maybe not. In round three, there is a chance to get Gonzalez with pick 35 overall. If you miss Gonzalez in round 3, who is probably the last sure thing to get at least .280-30-100-100 at first base, it becomes a little bit more of a gamble for stat accuracy (the likelihood that your statistical prediction comes true, based on your definition of true, whether you allow for a 2% variance, 5% variance or whatever the number may be).

I put Kevin Youkilis in Tier 4, I am not sold that he is a 30 home run hitter. Putting him in Tier 4 means I will not be drafting him, because his ADP is 40, which means he would most likely be gone by my pick in round 4, which would be 56 overall, assuming the #5 draft slot. I think to take him that early in the third round would be way too much of a risk. Joey Votto and Derek Lee I have grouped together next in Tier 4, they are both players I see in the .290-25-90-90-8 (sb) range. Chris Davis has 35-40 home run potential, and also the potential to break the strikeout record. He does have the ability to hit for average in the .270 range so I group him with Carlos Delgado, both players I see around .275-35-95-100.

If I have someone from one of the first four tiers, I would be happy at frst base. Anyone after that I would be disappointed. The players in Tiers 1-4 make up 13 players. If it is a 15 team league, that means at least two teams are ending up with players in Tier 5 or below. The possibility is it could be even more if someone takes a first basemen in the Top 4 Tiers and later adds another Top 4 Tier first baseman as a corner infielder. That is why I always chart the draft of other owners by position so I have an idea of how each team is filling in their roster to anticipate who might be going after which position.

Tier 5 I don’t have really grouped in any particular order. By this time you are probably in round 12 or later of your draft and your pick will be made on where you stand in certain categories. Tier 5 represents players that can provide 25+ home runs or more. Tier 6 represents players with the ability to hit 15-20 home runs, but also hit .280 to .300. Tier 7 represents players that could produce some decent stats, but each have question marks surrounding them. For Garko, does he lose at bats to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez? Does Nick Johnson lose at bats due to another injury or to Adam Dunn as Washington tries to rotate one of their 10 outfielders? Ishikawa should be the recepient of the majority of at bats in San Francisco assuming Brian Sabean does not let Rich Aurilia get another 400+ at bats. Tracy could lose at bats depending on the health of Eric Byrnes in Arizona.

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