Posts Tagged ‘Ryan Howard’

2010 Philadelphia Phillies Team Preview

This is the first part our series of 2010 fantasy baseball team previews looking at the National League East. The team previews will include the projected batting order, projected rotation, rookies that could make an impact in 2010 as well as each players current ADP for a 15 team mixed fantasy baseball league.

2010 Philadelphia Phillies Projected Batting Order:

1.  SS Jimmy Rollins (ADP 20)
2.  3B Placido Polanco  (ADP 217)
3.  2B Chase Utley (ADP 4)
4.  1B Ryan Howard (ADP 10)
5.  RF Jason Werth (ADP 34)
6.  LF Raul Ibanez (ADP 93)
7.  CF Shane Victorino (ADP 63)
8.  C Carlos Ruiz (ADP 320)

2010 Philadelphia Phillies Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  Roy Halladay (ADP 23)
2.  Cole Hamels (ADP 98)
3.  J.A. Happ (ADP 284)
4.  Joe Blanton (ADP 306)
5.  Jamie Moyer / Kyle Kendrick (ADP ND / ND)

Closer – Brad Lidge (ADP 225)
Handcuff – Ryan Madson

2010 Philadelphia Phillies prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Scott Mathieson – RP
2. Antonio Bastardo – SP


2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – First Base

by Todd Lammi

This is the second in our series of fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of first base. There is some good depth at this position with the added flexibility of guys like Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu and Garrett Jones.

There are really two clusters or tiers of players in the first six rounds or so of mixed league drafts. The key will be picking out the player that performs above the others in that group to give you the best chance of winning your fantasy baseball league.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for first base in 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – owners that picked Pujols first last season got an extra bonus with an additional 10 home runs and nine stolen bases compared to the previous year. Pujols has been chosen as the number one pick in all 33 NFBC scoring fantasy baseball drafts at Mock Draft Central so far this year.

2) Ryan Howard – this is great in two cases for people picking at the end of the first round in fantasy baseball drafts. One is you will most likely get the chance to draft Howard if you want him, as the current ADP has him as the fifth first basemen. Secondly, if you get him, you are getting a player with more value than the players drafted in front of him.

3) Mark Teixeira – should put up similar numbers to 2009 as he enjoyed the benefit of the new Yankees’ stadium, hitting 24 home runs vs. 15 on the road and a healthy Alex Rodriguez in the lineup for the entire season.

4) Prince Fielder – had a monster 2009 season that puts him in the first round of fantasy baseball drafts this season. Has not been distracted by his big potential pay day looming after 2011 or the possibility of the Milwaukee Brewers potentially trading him this season or next.

5) Miguel Cabrera – he turns the fantasy baseball magical age of 27 in April. Whether he continues his consistent numbers of years past is in some question after recently admitting to undergoing alcohol abuse treatment.

6) Lance Berkman – Berkman is much in the same boat as Howard. Berkman’s ADP is lower than several players below him, yet I expect him to have more value. People are discounting Berkman because of his injury and age, but he is one of the few first baseman than can get you .300-90-30-100-10 and last year was his first year on the disabled list since 2005.

7) Joey Votto – lots of people are on the Votto bandwagon this season as his current ADP has him as the 6th best first basemen and going in the second round in most mixed league fantasy baseball drafts. The only problem with  owners picking him as high as the second round means people are projecting him at around .290-30-100-8 which is somewhat of a leap of faith. If he falls short of those numbers, you have now lost in terms of value with your pick in the second round.

8.) Kevin Youkilis – offers the added flexibility of qualifying at third base in 2010. I have him ranked just ahead of Justin Morneau due to the injury concerns and the fact Youkilis hits in a better lineup.

9) Justin Morneau – carries a little risk coming off two injuries that can affect power hitters, with wrist surgery and a stress fracture in his vertebrae occurring at the end of the season.

10) Adrian Gonzalez – had 64 less at bats last season due to a huge increase in walks and still managed to hit more home runs. Only negatives are the lineup he plays in limits his RBI total and he has hit over .300 only one time in his career. He gets a bump in value once / if he is traded by the San Diego Padres. Gonzalez hit 28 home runs on the road last season and only 12 at home.

11) Carlos Pena – depends on how bad you want the power and if your team can absorb the batting average when choosing between Pena and Kendry Morales. Hurt by a 44 point drop in batting average against right-handed pitching last year. Expect a slight rebound and that his overall batting average is back in the .240 range.

12) Kendry Morales – had a fantasy baseball breakout year in 2009, finally get a full season of at bats. If you are a big believer in second-half stats providing growth for the following year, go the extra dollar on him in an auction format. Morales hit .330 after the break vs. 284 with four more home runs and 10 more RBI in 32 less at bats.

13) Derrek Lee -  entered the time machine and went back to his 2005 levels in 2009. Now at age 34, don’t expect a repeat this year, there will be some regression likely. Take note that although the power came back, the stolen bases did not so keep the projections realistic.

14) Billy Butler – it seems like he has been around for quite a few years without fulfilling the high expectations from his minor league numbers, but the fact is he turns just 24 in April of this year. Turned up the power in a big way in 2009 with 21 home runs and 51 doubles!. If you have played fantasy baseball before, you know that eventually some of those doubles will turn into home runs as he continues to fill out. This might be the last year you can get him cheap.

15) James Loney – improved at the plate in 2009, taking an additional 25 walks while cutting his strikeouts by 17. But unless your fantasy baseball league uses on base percentage as a category, he isn’t as valuable.  His 15 home runs in only 344 at bats in 2007 are now the outlier.

16) Paul Konerko – another fork in the road during the fantasy baseball draft, whether you want Konerko, Chris Davis or Adam LaRoche who I have grouped in the same tier. Approaching his mid 30′s now, you pretty much know what you are going to get with Konerko. His 2009 stats were in line with his 2007 numbers.

17) Chris Davis – really depends on how much risk you like to take in your fantasy baseball drafts whether you want to roll the dice on him. People that want him will look at his 93 at bats in September when he hit .290 after his demotion to the minor leagues. People that stay away will look at his 38% strikeout rate and say there is no way he keeps a job. The power is legit; whether he can hold on to the job is another question, especially with top prospect Justin Smoak already in AAA.

18) Adam LaRoche – you can pencil him in for 70 runs scored, 25 home runs and 85 RBI every year it seems. If you draft him, understand the history. He is a slow starter and puts up much better numbers in the second half every season. If you own him, don’t dump him cheap at the All-Star break.

19) Todd Helton – was able to control his back condition last season and got 544 at bats. Still carries a little bit of risk to miss time, but is a decent corner infielder to own to help boost your fantasy baseball team’s batting average.

20) Aubrey Huff – should be good for 15-20 home runs and 80+ RBI as the clean up hitter for the San Francisco Giants.

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  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
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Next up in the series for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be second basemen.

Strikeouts: Enjoy the breeze

by Todd Lammi

In fantasy baseball leagues, the later into the season it goes, the harder it becomes to make up ground in one offensive category. Runs, home runs, RBI and stolen bases aren’t as hard to make up ground in, because as the season goes on, other owners lose interest, focus on other leagues, leave injured players in their lineup, etc., so even if your players don’t improve over the course of the season if they are struggling, there are still several points you will be able to make up in each category.

Batting average becomes a little bit trickier as you get further along into the season. If you have a team of .260 hitters that are playing every day and accumulating a large number of at bats, it becomes harder to make up ground in that category unless you are able to pull off several trades or you have multiple players that turn in monster second halves of the fantasy baseball season.

Discount BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for a moment, a higher strikeout rate for a hitter means the hitter has a reduced chance of ever having a batting average above .280 because of the fewer number of balls in play.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the some of the league leaders in strikeouts per plate appearances. If you own any of these hitters, now is the time to start looking to get them off your roster if you are looking to gain points in batting average.

1) Chris Davis - batting average .210 – his strikeout rate was high last year at 28% in a half season of at bats, but in 2009 it has soared ridiculously high to 42%.

2) Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .258 – his current strike out rate of 34% is in line with his 32% in 2008 which ranked him fifth in baseball

3) Miguel Olivo – .257 – he has been on a tear lately in the power department, but the hacking is not good for the average. His 33% is 7 percentage points higher than last season.

4) Mark Reynolds – .266 – 33% last year, 33% this year, when he does make contact, he hits it a long way, much like Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, etc.

5) Bill Hall - .197 – Why was he ever platooning with Mat Gamel? Luckily the Milwaukee Brewers have wised up, giving Hall only one start in the last week. His current strikeout ratio per plate appearance of 30% is close to his 28% mark of last season.

6) Carlos Pena – .238 – 30% this year vs. 28% last year. Good for power but a real drag to the bating average.

7) Delmon Young – .251 – Wow! What happened to him? Has never lived up to the hype since coming to the major leagues and seems to have gotten worse this year. His 30% strikeout ratio is way above last years mark of 18%. It might be okay if the transition to more strikeouts meant more power but that has not been the case with only two home runs in 171 at bats.

8.) Josh Fields – .233 – 29% this season vs. 31% in 2007 since he did not have many at bats in 2008. His inability to make contact is part of the reason the Chicago White Sox turned to Gordon Beckham earlier than expected.

9) Ryan Howard – .250 – 29% this year and last year. He will always been in the top 10, it is a matter of whether his home runs and RBI make him worth carrying on your fantasy baseball team.

10) Mike Jacobs – .226 – 28% in 2009 vs. 23% in 2008. He is hitting only .172 in June with one home run and one RBI in 64 at bats.

Fantasy Baseball – May First Base Rankings

by Todd Lammi

Instead of using some complicated formula to review May fantasy baseball statistics, here is a breakdown for the numbers for the month sorted by RBI, for first basemen.

Mark Teixeira led they way at first base, thanks to the return of Alex Rodriguez to the line up. Ryan Howard is starting to pick up the pace in the power department although his batting average still lags in the .250 range.  Interesting to see that first base, usually thought of as a power position had three players in the top 10 with only two home runs for the month of May. Kotchman rebounded from the month of April where he had only four RBI and zero home runs. Despite all of the home runs that Adrian Gonzalez is hitting, the inability of the number one and two hitters in the San Diego Padres line up to get on base consistently limits his RBI chances.

Check out the player ranked at number 20, Mr. Albert Pujols. Despite his insistence that his left wrist is not affecting his performance, I have to believe the sudden drop off in numbers for Jorge Cantu from April to May is indeed affected by his injury. Much like the Boston Red Sox with David Ortiz, the Chicago Cubs face a dilemma with Derek Lee who is under performing this season. With Micah Hoffpauir performing just as well, do the Cubs consider platooning Lee with Hoffpauir, or make a trade for a first basemen?

Year to date:

Lee             .248 17-5-19-0 (141 at bats) – left / right split .278 / .244

Hoffpauir .281 9-4-16-0 (98 at bats) – left / right split .154 / .301

RK PLAYER TEAM AB BA R HR RBI SB
1 Mark Teixeira NYY 115 0.330 25 13 34 0
2 Prince Fielder MIL 95 0.305 20 9 31 0
3 Justin Morneau MIN 108 0.361 24 9 29 0
4 Ryan Howard PHI 112 0.250 20 10 25 2
5 Miguel Cabrera DET 106 0.340 19 6 23 0
6 James Loney LAD 121 0.273 14 2 22 2
7 Nick Johnson WAS 101 0.327 15 2 21 1
8 Adrian Gonzalez SDG 100 0.250 18 11 20 0
Casey Kotchman ATL 97 0.258 7 2 20 0
10 Lance Berkman HOU 91 0.286 15 5 19 0
Aubrey Huff BAL 106 0.264 13 5 19 0
12 Todd Helton COL 103 0.320 18 4 18 0
13 Carlos Pena TAM 100 0.210 23 8 17 0
Kendry Morales LAA 98 0.286 9 5 16 0
14 Kevin Youkilis BOS 55 0.327 11 4 16 0
16 Jason Giambi OAK 93 0.226 17 5 15 0
Paul Konerko CHW 97 0.289 12 4 15 0
Billy Butler KAN 107 0.308 13 2 15 0
Jorge Cantu FLA 114 0.211 8 1 15 0
20 Albert Pujols STL 85 0.341 20 8 14 3
Chris Davis TEX 95 0.189 12 7 14 0
22 Russell Branyan SEA 101 0.317 16 7 13 1
Joey Votto CIN 45 0.378 12 5 13 1
Ryan Garko CLE 62 0.226 9 4 13 0
25 Lyle Overbay TOR 68 0.294 8 2 12 0
26 Derrek Lee CHC 67 0.313 10 4 9 0
Kevin Millar TOR 55 0.218 7 2 9 0
28 Chad Tracy ARI 55 0.127 5 2 8 1
Adam LaRoche PIT 95 0.200 16 2 8 0
Micah Hoffpauir CHC 63 0.270 6 2 8 0
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