Posts Tagged ‘Rich Harden’

2010 Two Start Pitchers – Week 21

Posted by Todd Lammi on August 20th, 2010

Here is a complete look at the fantasy baseball two-start pitchers for week 21. Obviously the top tier pitchers are going to be left in your line up, but here is a look at some of the more border line pitchers for mixed league starts and who they face in those starts.

2 start pitchers week 21: remember again that the list below is more focused on mixed leagues since in AL or NL only leagues in most cases you do not have the option to rotate too many starting pitchers with the smaller player pool. The pitchers below are listed in alphabetical order by team name per category.

American League:

Start them:

Gavin Floyd (CHW) ~ BAL (Guthrie), NYY (Moseley)
Francisco Liriano (MIN) ~ @TEX (Harden), @SEA (Fister)
Carl Pavano (MIN) ~ @TEX (Lewis), @SEA (Pauley)
Gio Gonzalez (OAK) ~ @CLE (Carmona), @TEX (Lewis)
Colby Lewis (TEX) ~ MIN (Pavano), OAK (Gonzalez)

Roll the Dice:

Jeremy Guthrie (BAL) ~ @CWS (Floyd), @LAA (Kazmir)
Fausto Carmona (CLE) ~ OAK (Gonzalez), KC (Chen)
James Shields (TB) ~ @LAA (Kazmir), BOS (Lackey)
Brandon Morrow (TOR) ~ NYY (Moseley), DET (Bonderman)

Guthrie is 4-2 in his last seven starts, allowing three runs or less in all of them except his last outing when he allowed five runs. Guthrie won each of his starts against Chicago and the Angels earlier this year. Morrow is 5-1 in his last 10 starts and has been racking up the strikeouts, fanning seven or more in six of those 10 outings. Carmona has been hit hard of late, making him less of a lock for your line up. He is 1-4 in his last five starts, allowing five runs or more in three of those outings.

Sit Them:

John Lackey (BOS) ~ SEA (Pauley), @TB (Shields)
Jeremy Bonderman (DET) ~ KC (Chen), @TOR (Morrow)
Rick Porcello (DET) ~ KC (Davies), @TOR (Rzepczynski)
Bruce Chen (KC) ~ @DET (Bonderman), @CLE (Carmona)
Scott Kazmir (LAA) ~ TB (Shields), BAL (Guthrie)
Dustin Moseley (NYY) ~ @TOR (Morrow), @CWS (Floyd)
David Pauley (SEA) ~ @BOS (Lackey), MIN (Pavano)
Rich Harden (TEX) ~ MIN (Liriano), OAK (Braden)
Mike Rzepczynski (TOR) ~ NYY (Hughes), DET (Porcello)

No reason to start Lackey unless you are a Red Sox fan at heart. Walks are up and strikeouts down from last season. Batting average against is close to 30 points higher and he has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts. Yes, Chen has won three of his last four starts, but his WHIP is of concern, allowing more than a hit per inning and a 1.51 WHIP for the season. Moseley has alternated wins and losses in his last five starts with nothing much to add in any other fantasy baseball category. Harden is coming off the disabled list on Monday to get the start. He has really only had two good outings in his last 10 appearances. Rzepczynski has been inconsistent since returning to the major leagues, including walking five in 4 1/3 innings in his last outing with no strikeouts. Bonderman has been too home run prone this year with 20 allowed in 130 2/3 innings, including five in his last two starts. Porcello is 1-6 in his last 10 appearances and has been too mediocre to star at this point of the season.

National League:

Start them:

Tim Hudson (ATL) ~ @COL (Hammel), FLA (Johnson)
Josh Johnson (FLA) ~ @NYM (Dickey), @ATL (Lowe)
Brett Myers (HOU) ~ @PHI (Blanton), @NYM (Santana)
Hiroki Kuroda (LAD) ~ @MIL (Bush), @COL (Hammel)
R.A. Dickey (NYM) ~ FLA (Johnson), HOU (Norris)
Cole Hamels (PHI) ~ HOU (Norris), @SD (Richard)
Clayton Richard (SD) ~ ARI (Lopez), PHI (Hamels)
Matt Cain (SF) ~ CIN (Volquez), ARI (Lopez)
Adam Wainwright (STL) ~ @PIT (Maholm), @WAS (Lannan)

Roll the Dice:

Edinson Volquez (CIN) ~ @SF (Cain), CHC (Coleman)
Jason Hammel (COL) ~ ATL (Hudson), LAD (Kuroda)
Joe Blanton (PHI) ~ HOU (Myers), @SD (Garland)
Ross Ohlendorf (PIT) ~ STL (TBD), @MIL (Bush)
St. Louis TBD ~ @PIT (Ohlendorf), @WAS (Hernandez)
Livan Hernandez (WAS) ~ CHC (Coleman), STL (TBD)

Volquez has been all or nothing in seven starts with one run allowed in four of them and 15 runs allowed in the other three.  Hammel has been a much better pitcher at home where he has a 3.36 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP where he gets two starts next week. Blanton has allowed three runs or less in five of his last seven starts and has not lost since July 21st. Ohlendorf has not won since June 2nd, despite good numbers in July 2.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and August 2.45 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Livan has been strong the last month and a half allowing three runs or less in seven straight starts and has only given up one home run in his last 10 outings.

Sit Them:

Rodrigo Lopez (AZ) ~ @SD (Richard), @SF (Cain)
Casey Coleman (CHC) ~ @WAS (Hernandez), @CIN (Volquez)
Bud Norris (HOU) ~ @PHI (Hamels), @NYM (Dickey)
Dave Bush (MIL) ~ LAD (Kuroda), PIT (Ohlendorf)
John Lannan (WAS) ~ CHC (Zambrano), STL (Wainwright)

Norris is on the bubble to start with a 4-0 mark in his last six outings. Because he gives up a few more runs than most pitchers, his wins are often dependent on the team scoring a lot of runs, for example the Astros scored 36 for him over a three game stretch recently. Lopez is 2-5 in his last 10 starts despite allowing three runs or less in seven outings. His inability to go deep into games ends up costing him wins which makes him difficult to start since he doesn’t really help out in any other category. Bush has alternated good and bad starts his last six outings, but when he is bad, he can kill your team stats for the week. Lannan has won three straight starts and has allowed exactly two runs in four straight outings, but with more walks than strikeouts on the season, there is no room for error for him to succeed.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitcher strikeouts

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 9th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

One of the things I look at when I am doing the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers is strikeouts. While I use that category in conjunction with several others, I think to pick one category and have it stand alone by itself, strikeouts are the most important.

The biggest reason is because strikeouts limit the damage to ERA numbers. Once the ball is hit and put in play, the pitcher becomes subjective to too many things out of his control. He has to worry about his defense being able to field the ball, the luck of where the ball is placed when hit, in addition to possibly giving up a home run which factors in the weather for the day as well as the dimensions of the ballpark among other things.

It also limits the ERA in respect to staying out of the big inning. If there is man on third base and as a pitcher you cannot afford to give up a hit anywhere on the diamond, be it fly ball or ground ball, you need to have the stuff to be able to bear down and strike out a hitter when needed.

With that said, here is a listing of the top starting pitchers from 2009 with the highest percentage of swing and miss strikes.

1) Rich Harden – 26%

2) Francisco Liriano – 20%

3) Jorge de la Rosa – 19%

4) Ryan Dempster – 19%

5) Jonathan Sanchez – 19%

6) Javier Vazquez – 19%

7) Chad Billingsley – 18%

8.) Neftali Feliz – 18%

9) Gio Gonzalez – 18%

10) Cole Hamels – 18%

11) Felix Hernandez – 18%

12) Mat Latos – 18%

13) Jon Lester – 18%

14) Tim Lincecum – 18%

15) Bud Norris – 18%

16) CC Sabathia – 18%

17) Justin Verlander – 18%

18) Clay Buchholz – 17%

19) Gavin Floyd – 17%

20) Tommy Hanson – 17%

I included Feliz assuming he will be a starting pitcher this year. Interesting to see a few rookies like Latos and Norris appear. Liriano in second position shows he still has good stuff, just a matter of his confidence improving. Two guys that people are discounting this season according to their fantasy baseball ADP are Hamels and Billingsley who are both on the list so I expect them to bounce back from seasons that were below expectations.

Take note that on Monday, 2/15 I will be releasing the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $9.99. It’s better than any magazine you will find on the stands because the information will be updated weekly up until Opening Day and the data will be in excel format so it will be easy to use. For that low price, you will get:

  • Over 450 player projections – easily sortable by league or position. Includes all player ages as of Opening Day.
  • All of the player notes that have been posted on the website as a quick cheat sheet to use during your draft.
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions.
  • A weekly article (that will not appear on the website) in regards to fantasy strategy for winning an auction or draft league.
  • An in-depth article on how to use the player projections. Player rankings and projections are great, but if they are not used correctly, you are not getting the most out of them.
  • Advice and guidance from someone that has been in the trenches and won leagues before. A lot of people writing articles or doing projections are just that, writers that have not been able to successfully win at fantasy baseball. In the 20 years that I have been playing fantasy baseball, I have won draft and auction leagues in multiple formats and can relate that information to you the reader.
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