Posts Tagged ‘Player Rankings’

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 30th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for closers. I used the criteria of a minimum of 10 saves as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings.

1. Craig Kimbrel - head and shoulders above all other closers from a fantasy baseball perspective, striking out 127 in 77 innings and posting 46 saves. The heavy workload seemed to catch up to him by the end of the season as he converted 5-of-8 saves in September with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

2. John Axford - gets bonus points for his mustache as well as for converting 46-of-48 save chances while posting a 1.95 ERA. Was dominant the second half of the season with a 0.84 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP while converting all 23 save chances.

3. Mariano Rivera - at 41-years-old he is still going strong, posting another 40+ save season with another year of an ERA under two and a WHIP under one. Converted all 23 save chances at home with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP.

4. J.J. Putz – his numbers were pretty much in line with his 2010 season except he posted 45 saves back in the closer role. If you owned him, be thankful he held up for most of the year. He had a minuscule 0.36 ERA on the road and a 0.69 WHIP.

5. Jose Valverde – led the league in saves, going a perfect 49-for-49 but ranked 5th at closer mostly due to his higher WHIP ratio. His innings pitched total was a career high and it was the third time in his career he collected 40+ saves.

6. Drew Storen – struggled in spring training but was lights out once the regular season started. Averaged more than a strikeout per inning after the All-Star Break with 40 k’s in 29 innings. Had a more difficult time in day games where he had a 3.96 ERA and 1.20 vs. night games where he was at 2.15 and 0.93.

7. Joel Hanrahan – came into the season with 20 career saves in four seasons and posted 40 saves for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After being homer prone early in his career, he only allowed one long ball in 68 2/3 innings in 2011.

8. Jonathan Papelbon -  save total went down for a third straight season but it was due to opportunity and not performance. His control rebounded from the past two seasons and his 87 strikeouts were a career high.

9. Heath Bell – notched 40+ saves for the third straight season. Only negative was the drop in his strikeout rate as he fanned less than a batter an inning.

10. Fernando Salas – he did on start the season as closer or end the year as closer, but still managed to rank 10th based on his performance in the middle part of the season. Was better at Busch Stadium where he had a 1.80 ERA and 0.69 WHIP compared to 2.79 and 1.18 on the road.

11. Francisco Cordero – despite his lack of strikeouts, he finished the season strong, converting 20-of-21 save chances the second half of the season. Had a 1.34 ERA at home and a 3.50 ERA on the road.

12. Brandon League - David Aardsma’s injury opened the door at closer and League took advantage, converting 37 of 42 saves. Loved pitching at SAFECO Field, putting up a 1.27 ERA and 0.79 ERA versus 4.85 and 1.46 on the road.

13. Ryan Madson – got a chance to be the full-time closer for most of the season for the first time in his career, which was good timing for him as he now heads into free agency. Put up an ERA of 1.64 at home vs. 3.25 on the road.

14. Sergio Santos – good strikeout numbers, but a combination of walks and home runs hiked up his ERA. Really struggled at U.S. Cellular Field with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

15. Kyle Farnsworth – posted a career year at age 35 in the closer role for the first time. His ERA and WHIP were the lowest they had been since 2005.

16. Neftali Feliz – less strikeouts and more walks in 2011 which is a bad combination for a pitcher in any type of role. Was better the second half of the year with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.

17. Jordan Walden – a solid rookie campaign with five wins and 32 saves. His ratios are going to run higher than the top tier closers until he gets his control straightened out.

18. Carlos Marmol – blew 10 saves as control continues to be his nemesis. Ratios were good the first half of the year and then he struggled after the All-Star Break with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

19. Chris Perez - strikeout rate fell off and he had problems pitching on the road, going 0-3 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

20. Juan Oviedo - formerly known as Leo Nunez, Oviedo posted a second straight season of 30 saves, but was susceptible to the long ball once again which propelled his ERA over four.

 

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball second basemen.

Tier 1 – Chase Utley

Tier 2 – Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips

Tier 3 – Alexei Ramirez, Dan Uggla

Tier 4 – Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Lopez

Tier 5 – Kaz Matsui, Rickie Weeks, Luis Castillo

Tier 6 – Howie Kendrick, Alexi Casilla, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson,  Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes

Tier 7 – Akinroi Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Jeff Baker, Chris Getz

Utley looks to be on track for opening day so I have him still rated as the only tier 1 player. It is interesting to see how many players have fallen out of the top 15 players in just the last two years that Kinsler and / or Pedroia are now going in the first round in some drafts.

Tier 2 represents all second round picks in a 15 team league. I like Kinsler for his power / speed combination. If he ever gets a full healthy season of 600+ at bats, he is looking at a potential 25 home run 30 steal season. I have Roberts next ahead of Pedroia. I have written in previous articles how I think Pedroia’s stats will see some regression this year. Roberts is consistently in the 10 home run, 55 rbi 40 steal range and I like the steals more that banking on Pedroia having a repeat performance of 2008. I have Pedroia ranked ahead of Phillips, giving the edge to Pedroia in runs scored and batting average, the edge to Phillips in home runs and stolen bases. I don’t want to sacrifice average the first five rounds of the draft so I would take Pedroia over Phillips if presented with the choice.

Alexei Ramirez has been going toward the end of the third round in most mock drafts. He will offer the added flexibility of being eligible at shortstop in the fourth week of the season assuming your league has the standard 20 games played rule to qualify at a position. Uggla’s current ADP is 63, which slots him at the end of round 4 / start of round 5. He homered, walked or struck out in 45% of his plate appearances in 2008.

At this point, most fantasy baseball owners draft sheets will vary quite a bit. I like Kelly Johnson next ahead of Cano. I think Cano is one of the more overrated fantasy baseball players. He always seems to get drafted 3-4 rounds earlier than he should. Possibly because he plays for the Yankees, or the fact that he hit .342 in 2006. Johnson I grade ahead of Cano because of the extra 5-10 bases he will swipe. DeRosa and Lopez I have grouped together next with DeRosa getting the edge for more consistency in batting average and to hedge against Lopez not being able to duplicate his stats at home from last season.

Tier 5, time to throw a dart at the board, as all of the players have speed, but also carry injury risk. Matsui has had over 400 at bats only once in the past four years so to say he is an injury risk is a bit of an understatement. He is currently penciled in as the Astros lead off hitter. A healthy 2009 could see Matsui with a line of 5 hr 50 rbi and 30 steals. Weeks has put up similar stats the last two years but his .240 average is a killer. At this point of the draft, Castillo is the last second basemen with the ability to steal 20+ bases, outside of possibly Felipe Lopez. Castillo seems to be healthy in spring and could steal 30 for the New York Mets this year.

Tier 6 is a jumbled mass of bodies. Kendrick like Cano is way overrated as well. He has never been healthy for a full season and even combining his 2006-2007 numbers which would have put him at 600 at bats, gives him 9 hr 69 rbi and 11 steals with close to a .300 average, looks a lot like what I expect from Alexi Casilla this season. Lopez could have a chance for a few more stolen bases if he improves his rate of 50% from last season (8 steals in 16 attempts). Hudson, Polanco, Sanchez, Fontenot, Barmes all offer similar stats in the 1o home run-60 rbi-10 stolen base range. Barmes also qualifies at shortstop.

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