Posts Tagged ‘Nelson Cruz’

The Daily Dirt from Monday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 13th, 2010

It was a day for the five home run club as several hitters clubbed home run numero cinco on the year. Vernon Wells (Toronto), Nelson Cruz (Texas) and Albert Pujols (St. Louis) all went deep to take the major league lead in home runs. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Monday…

Hitters:

Scott Podsednik went 4-for-5 with three RBI and stole his 5th base of the season.

Ryan Braun went 2-for-4 and knocked in four runs, three coming on his second home run of the year.

Shin-Soo Choo went 3-for-3 with two runs scored as he hit his second home run of the season and stole his third base of the year.

Kyle Blanks went 3-for-5 with five RBI as he blasted his second home run of the year to lead the San Diego Padres to a 17-2 win over the Atlanta Braves. Will Venable chipped in by going 3-for-5 with four runs scored. Venable hit his second home run of the year and also stole his first base of the season.

Carl Crawford went 4-for-4 with two runs scored and hit his first home run of the year.

Scott Rolen went 3-for-5 with three RBI and two home runs, giving him three long balls on the season.

Andruw Jones went 3-for-4 with four RBI and knocked out his first two home runs of the season.

Bengie Molina went 4-for-4 with four RBI and hit his first home run of the season for the San Francisco Giants.

Not a good day for Brian Roberts of the Baltimore Orioles as he was placed on the disabled list and also received an epidural injection in his back. Julio Lugo should see the majority of time at second base while Roberts is out.

Pitchers:

Carl Pavano picked up his second win of the year, allowing one run in six innings with four strikeouts.

Adam Wainwright tossed eight shutout innings with seven strikeouts to pick up victory number two on the year.

Justin Duchscherer worked 7 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits with four strikeouts.

Matt Garza allowed one run in eight innings with five strikeouts to earn his second win of the season.

Closers:

Neftali Feliz picked up his first save of the season for the Texas Rangers, working a scoreless inning with one strikeout.

Chris Perez was pulled from a tie game in the ninth inning after allowing a double, committing an error on a bunt and then surrendering a walk to load the bases without recording an out

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfield (Part I)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 1st, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the sixth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the top 20 outfielders. Before I get a flood of emails from readers, I will tell you that Ichiro Suzuki is not in the list, so no, I did not miss him.  I see a lot of people are drafting him high as he has a current fantasy baseball ADP of 42 and is the 10th outfielder being selected.

To me, he is one of those people that are drafted based on his name and not necessarily his value. I will shows you my projections for two players and you decide how much difference there is.

Player A 95 runs  8 home runs  65 RBI  24 steals  .295 avg.

Player B 90 runs  7 home runs  46 RBI  29 steals  .318 avg.

Player A is Denard Span who has an ADP of 123 and is currently going 81 picks after Ichiro, who is Player B.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the players rank.

1) Ryan Braun – made small gains in plate discipline which was nice to see in his second year. Has roughly the same stats as Chase Utley, only difference is the position scarcity which puts Utley number four overall and Braun number five.

2) Matt Kemp – fell just short of the 30-30 club in 2009 and should be ready to break that barrier this year. Drove in over 100 runs despite batting seventh or eighth for 41% of his at bats.

3) Matt Holliday – when it was all said and done, put up similar stats to the year before in Colorado. Should continue to post stats long the same lines now back in the National League with St. Louis.

4) Jacoby Ellsbury – put in a nice sophomore season, stealing double figure bases every month except for August when he stole eight. Should score 100 runs or more every season in the Red Sox lineup. Has improved his stolen base percentage since reaching the major leagues, as he now as a career 85% success rate.

5) Carl Crawford – 2009 numbers returned to 2007 levels after injuries derailed his 2008 season. Went crazy on stolen bases in the first-half of the season with 44 bags, but only stole 16 after the All-Star break and was caught nine times.

6) Jason Bay – looks like he become more home run conscious last season as his strikeout rate went up almost seven percentage points. Showed he could handle playing in a big market environment. Now the question is whether he can handle the dimensions of Citi Field.

7) Justin Upton – turned in a 20-20 season at the age of 22. Much more patient at home than on the road with 37 walks compared to 18 in similar number of at bats. Still has power upside into the 30 home run range.

8.) Grady Sizemore – elbow and abdominal injuries wrecked his 2008 campaign. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting under .225 three of the past four years. Set your expectations against his 2006 season, with less runs and a lower batting average.

9) Jayson Werth – exploded at age 30 in his first season as a full-time starter. The at bats were the most he has had in a season since 2002, when he split time between Triple-A and the Toronto Blue Jays. Power should regress a little bit but the stolen bases should continue thanks to a 89% career success rate.

10) Nick Markakis – two straight seasons of declining stats in home runs and stolen bases, which is not the right direction to be trending when you are only 26 years old. Still has solid stats and has hit 40+ doubles the last three seasons so there may be a few more home runs lurking.

11) Adam Lind – turned in a monster power season with 46 doubles and 35 home runs. Stats were solid all around; every month of the season, home vs. road and lefty vs. right pitching.

12) Nelson Cruz – numbers would have been even better if not for an injury last season that kept him under 475 at bats. I have him ranked higher than his current fantasy baseball ADP so I think there is draft value here. Numbers were in line with his pro-rated line from the end of the 2008 season. Steals were an added bonus, but not out of the blue as he had 24 in ‘08 at Triple-A.

13) Curtis Granderson – will enjoy hitting in Yankees stadium for half of his games. Needs to improve against left-handed pitchers to get his batting average back up. Hit only .183 in 180 at bats with nine RBI against southpaws.

14) Andre Ethier – gradual increase in power the last two years although part of the jump in home runs was just due to more at bats. Average dropped as he had trouble with lefties, batting only .194 in 165 at bats.

15) Manny Ramirez – was on fire in April hitting .372 and then was suspended for PED use. Put up so-so numbers upon his return and hit 10 home runs in 231 after the All-Star break. Will be 38 in May so I would not count on a return to over 30 home runs again.

16) Adam Dunn – as consistent as they come in power with close to 40 home runs and 100+ RBI each season. You know his batting average is going to be in the .240 – .260 range so you will need to offset it with other people in your lineup. Offers the added bonus of qualifying at first base as well this season.

17) B.J. Upton – gave back the gains in his walk rate from 2008. Second straight year of almost 30 point drop in batting average. Went on a tear in June hitting .324 with five home runs, 22 RBI and 14 steals; then disappeared for the rest of the season. Stole 31 bases in 81 games and then managed to only swipe 11 after the All-Star break. Still have to hold out hope that he turns things around at age 25 and gets back to his 2007 numbers.

18) Carlos Lee – fifth straight season of 100+ RBI. Disappointing to see him score almost the same number of runs as 2008 despite an additional 188 plate appearances. A number that does not figure to get any better after  losing Miguel Tejada from the lineup. The days of his double digit steals seem to be over.

19) Shin-Soo Choo – numbers in line with pro-rating his 2008 stats. Has the speed to go 20-20 for the next few seasons. Solid batting average and an overall ADP of 69 makes him a nice value in the fifth or sixth round.

20) Bobby Abreu – you have to love the consistency that Abreu brings to the table, driving in 100+ RBI in seven straight seasons and scoring no less than 96 runs during that time period. His lowest at bat total in the last 10 years was 546 back in 1999. Now at age 36, he still should be good for another couple of years.

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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will outfielders 21-40.

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Friday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 29th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Luke Scott went 3 for 3 and delivered two home runs while driving in five runs in a 7-2 win over the Detroit Tigers. Scott has been on a tear since coming off the disabled list on Wednesday, with 5 home runs and 12 RBI in three games. Rookie Matt Wieters debuted as the starting catcher, going 0 for 4 with a strikeout. Wieters hit seventh and should see the majority of starts going forward. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Friday…

Hitters:

Nelson Cruz went 2 for 4 with 3 RBI including his 13th home run of the season in a 6-3 win over the Oakland A’s in the first game of a double header.

Jermaine Dye started the Chicago White Sox scoring with his 13th home run of the season, en route to an 11-2 win over the Kansas City Royals.  Alexei Ramirez, A.J. Pierzynski and Josh Fields each contributed three hits in the win.

Edwin Maysonet went 4 for 4 with RBI including his first home run of the season as the Houston Astros defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-1. It was Maysonet’s second start of the season since being recalled on May 22.

Omir Santos hit his third home run of the season and drove in two runs in the New York Mets -21 win over the Florida Marlins in 11 innings. Santos will remain with the team when Brian Schneider returns from the disabled list, with the trade of backup catcher Ramon Castro to the Chicago White Sox.

Evan Longoria went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI, including his 13th home run of the season, to power the Tampa Bay Rays to a 5-3 win over the Minnesota Twins. Longoria increased his league leading RBI total to 54.

Carl Crawford went 2 for 4 with three runs scored and connected for his second home run of the season. The home run was Crawford’s first since May 7th.

Yunel Escobar went 2 for 5 with three RBI to pace the Atlanta Braves offense in a 10-6 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Escobar knocked out his fifth home run of the season and his second in the last four days.

Carlos Quentin was placed on the 15-day disabled list with plantar fasciitis in his foot. Quentin has been bothered by pain in his foot all season which helps explain his .229 batting average. Scott Podsednik will continue to see playing time in his place and is a good source for steals in American League only fantasy baseball leagues.

Pitchers:

Ted Lilly allowed one run in seven innings with five strikeouts to pick up his sixth win of the season in a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chad Billingsley took the loss, allowing two runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts.

Josh Outman allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts in a no decision. Outman has allowed three runs or less in all eight of his starts this season and currently sports a 3.06 ERA.

Andy Pettitte allowed one run in five innings to improve his record to 5-1 on the season in a 3-1 defeat of the Cleveland Indians. Pettitte was removed from the game in the sixth innings with stiffness in his lower back.

J.A. Happ allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings to earn his first win since moving into the starting rotation in a 5-4 win over the Washington Nationals.

Brian Moehler allowed tossed a complete game allowing one run with four strikeouts to gain his second win of the year.

Casey Janssen picked up his first win in over two years, allowing three runs in seven innings with two strikeouts. For Janssen, who missed all of 2008 with shoulder surgery, it was his second start since being recalled from Triple-A last Friday.

Mike Pelfrey allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings with six strikeouts in a no decision. Pelfrey has allowed two runs or less in four consecutive starts while lowering his ERA by 1.5 runs. His counter part, rookie Sean West, allowed one run in seven innings with two strikeouts.

James Shields surrendered two runs in seven innings with five strikeouts to even his mark at 4-4 on the year.

Braden Looper allowed two runs in seven innings with four strikeouts to pick up his 5th win of the year in a 3-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds.

Scott Feldman allowed two runs in six innings with two strikeouts to boost his record to a perfect 4-0 on the year.  Feldman has a 2.59 ERA since moving into the starting rotation on April 25th.

Clayton Richard allowed two runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts for his third straight quality start. Richard has allowed three runs in his last 20 innings with 18 strikeouts.

Jason Marquis pitched eight innings of shutout ball with six strikeouts to pick up his seventh win of the year. It was the third consecutive win for Marquis who has allowed three earned runs in his last 23 2/3 innings.

Jason Vargas allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings with two strikeouts to record his second win of the season in a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels. The two runs were the most Vargas has allowed in his four starts this season.

Matt Cain improved to 6-1 by giving up one run in 6 1/3 innings with five punchouts in a 4-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Cain has won his last three starts, while allowing two tuns in 21 1/3 innings.

Closers:

C.J. Wilson picked up a win and a save in the Texas Rangers double header. With Frank Francisco back as closer, Wilson should only see a few save opportunities going forward.

Huston Street picked up his 8th save of the season and has not allowed an earned run since April 24th. During that time he has lowered his ERA from 8.59 to his current number of 3.10.

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Monday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 25th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

It was a painful loss for the Tampa Bay Rays, as the blew a 10-0 lead in an 11-10 loss to the Cleveland Indians. The blown lead was the largest in team history.  The Rays used four relievers in the ninth inning, the last one being Jason Isringhausen, but none of them could stop the bleeding as the Indians rallied for seven runs to pull out the come from behind win. Rookie David Price, getting the start for the injured Scott Kazmir, displayed the same wildness that had been plaguing him in the minor leagues, as he walked five and allowed four hits in 3 1/3 innings while throwing 100 pitches. He did manage to strike out six and only allowed two runs, but his high pitch count limited his innings. Ryan Garko hit two home runs for the Indians and drove in five runs to pace the Tribe’s offense. In other fantasy baseball happenings around the diamond on Monday…

Hitters:

Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira continue to lead the surging New York Yankees offense, as the team pounded out 19 hits in an 11-1 win over the Texas Rangers. A-Rod went 5 for 5 with 4 RBI and Teixeira went 2 for 4 with three runs scored and two RBI.

Who needs Manny Ramirez? The Los Angeles Dodgers pounded out 19 hits en route to a 16-6 pasting of the Colorado Rockies. Matt Kemp, Juan Castro and Juan Pierre each knocked in three runs.

The Chicago White Sox made short work of Ervin Santana, banging out 23 hits on their way to a 17-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Jermaine Dye (12), Jim Thome (8) and Paul Konerko (7) all went deep for the White Sox. The lone bright spot for the Angles was the return of Vladimir Guerrero to the line up.

Nelson Cruz hit his 12th home run of the year for the lone score for the Rangers. Cruz has homered 5 times in his last six games while driving in 10 runs. He has now collected an RBI in six consecutive games.

Ryan Howard hit two home runs and drove in three to provide all the offense for the Philadelphia Phillies in a 5-3 loss to the Florida Marlins. Howard now has 12 home runs on the season and 33 RBI.

Jonny Gomes went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI for the Cincinnati Reds in their 8-5 win over the Houston Astros. Gomes is a good pickup in National League only leagues as he should see playing time against left-handed starters.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 17th home run of the season in the San Diego Padres 9-7 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks in 10 innings. Scott Hairston went 3 for 5 and is now batting .333. With the trade of Jody Gerut to Milwaukee earlier in the week, Hairston should be someone to target if he is still on the waiver wire in your fantasy baseball league.

It took him 100 at bats but Travis Ishikawa finally hit his first home run of the season in the San Francisco Giants 8-2 win over the Atlanta Braves. Ishikawa went 4 for 4 and drove in three runs. He is going to need more games like that if he does not want to lose at bats to recent call up Jesus Guzman.

Freddy Sanchez went 6 for 6 and scored four times to lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to a 10-8 win over the Chicago Cubs. Sanchez drove in three runs and hit his fourth home run of the season.

Pitchers:

Justin Verlander pitched seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts in a 13-1 win over the Kansas City Royals. It marked the sixth consecutive game that Verlander has notched eight or more strikeouts. The outing was the most economical Verlander has been with his pitches all season, making it through seven innings on 96 pitches.

Jeremy Guthrie allowed one run in seven innings with four strikeouts to pitch the Baltimore Orioles past the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1. Guthrie’s biggest problem this season has been the home run, allowing 11 in 53 2/3 innings before his start on Monday.

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 1-0 in 10 innings on a RBI single by Bill Hall. Both starting pitchers were superb in the game, with Chris Carpenter tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts for the Cardinals, and Yovani Gallardo hurling eight shutout innings for the Brewers with six strikeouts.

Phil Hughes scattered three hits in eight shutout innings to pick up his third win of the season. Hughes struck out six while allowing only one walk to lower his ERA to 5.16.

Brett Anderson allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts to gain his second win of the season. It marks the second consecutive good start for the rookie who may be on the verge of turning things around for good.

Jonathan Sanchez, subject to some trade rumors earlier in the week, allowed two runs in five innings with six strikeouts to earn his second win of the year.

John Maine allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts to get his fourth win of the season.  Despite his 4.18 ERA he conitunes to be bothered by walks. With a 30 to 36 walk to strikeout ratio, Maine is on pace for 108 walks this season which would be a career high.

Closers:

Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 12th save of the season, but it marked back-to-back games that he surrendered two runs and a home run.

Francisco Rodriguez (back spasms) returned to action for the New York Mets and picked up his 13th save of the season.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 6-10

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, lets look at rounds 6-10 of the draft with each player having the biggest upside or downside per round. The same assumptions are in play, 15 team mixed league fantasy baseball draft, using the average draft positions (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC scoring system.

Round 6:

Upside - Ryan Ludwick (88) – The upside is not there in terms of performance; I don’t see him surpassing his 37 home runs of a year ago, but with the his ADP currently as the third from last pick of round 6, I would be happy to take 32 home runs and a .285 average from him. Remember last year, he started off in a platoon situation with the St. Louis Cardinals, so the stats he put up were in roughly 75-100 at bats less than what he will have this season, barring any type of injury of course.

Downside - Scott Kazmir (90) – He has only thrown over 200 innings one time in the last three years. The injury risk alone makes push him below some of the pitchers that are going in rounds 7-9. Add in his wildness at the end of last season, he walked 18 batters in 25 2/3 innings in the postseason and the 6th round is too high for him.

Round 7:

Upside – Joakim Soria (94) – The seventh round is usually where I start looking for a closer in a 15 team draft if there is a solid pick that has slid that far. Soria at #94 fits that profile this season. It would be nice if his strikeout rate was a little bit higher, but with his earned run average and whip ratio, that might be nit-picking him too much. People discount him because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, but bad teams tend to play quite a few close games when they do win, so save chances will always be available. Currently he is the sixth closer being drafted.

Downside - James Loney (99) – One thing to keep in mind when projecting rookies or young players seeing at bats for the first time is that is not a good idea to prorate stats from a partial season and assume that he will carry those numbers into the following year. Case in point is James Loney who hit .331 in 344 at bats in 2007 with 15 home runs. A lot of people were projecting him for 25 home runs and 100+ rbi with a .300 average last season and he came up way short in the home run department with only 13. His career high in the minor leagues was 11 in 2005.

Round 8:

Upside – J.J. Hardy (105) – So I cheated a little bit and stuck him in round 8, although technically his ADP is the last pick of round 7. Hardy has put up two pretty similar seasons the last two years. His stats are pretty much in line with Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta, both of which are going a full one round higher than Hardy in mock drafts. Alcides Escobar may be the future for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop but he is no threat to Hardy’s job in 2009.

Downside - Joba Chamberlain (107) – Yes, in his 11 starts he put up some nice numbers, but he only had three wins to show for it, despite striking out 74 batters in 65 innings. In 2009, he is slated to open the season as the New York Yankees fifth starter which means he might get skipped a start or two for rainouts or additional rest. If the New York Yankees fall out of the play-off race late in the year, there is a chance they would limit his innings since he only threw a little over 100 last season. With Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edison Volquez and Yovani Gallardo all going after Chamberlain, in addition to Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, there are better options in the 8th round with less risk attached to them.

Round 9:

Upside - Brad Hawpe (132) – There is not much upside potential in round 9, but Hawpe being available at the end of the round is a good pick. He offers a solid average in the .290 range with 25 home runs and 100 rbi potential.

Downside – Nelson Cruz (128) – Fantasy players are going a little overboard I think in projecting Cruz’s 2009 numbers based on 115 at bats in 2008. Yes he has power potential, but remember that he is already 28, this is not a rookie we are talking about. Last year was his third season in the major leagues with the Texas Rangers. If you combine his stats over three seasons with Texas, his numbers are 22 home runs, 82 rbi and 6 steals in 552 at bats. Not bad numbers, but there is a reason those numbers are spread out over three years; the Rangers have never given him chance at 500+ at bats in one season. With Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones in the wings, there is no guarantee he gets those at bats this year either, unless he gets off to a blazing start to the season. There is a lot of risk to picking him in the 8th round with other alternatives still on the draft board.

Round 10:

Upside – Jorge Cantu (143) – It is nice to find a corner infielder with 30 home run power still on the board in round 10. Cantu offers the additional flexibility of qualifying at 1b and 3b. He also turned the magical age of 27 in January if you believe in that phenomenon.

Downside – Xavier Nady (149) Nady had a career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates / New York Yankees last season. With all career years, there is always a very good chance for regression the following season. The Yankees also have a few extra hitters floating around in their outfield so Nady might lose 100-150 at bats even as a starter, depdning how much playing time the combination of Melky Cabrera / Brett Gardner / Nick Swisher receive.

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