Now that we have been looking at fantasy baseball mock drafts, it is time to look at draft position and how that impacts your fantasy baseball team. For the purpose of this discussion, we will be using a 15 team mixed league format.
Usually there are several positions I want to grab in the early rounds of the draft based on the depth or lack of depth at a position. Some places in the draft order mean you will not have a shot at any of these positions. If you are not comfortable with having either a weak shortstop of second basemen or whatever position you value, than you might need to adjust your strategy or grab a player a round earlier than you wanted to because he will not make it back to your pick in the next round.
Some fantasy baseball leagues offer you the chance to list a preference for your draft order. If that is case, it pays to have made sure you have done several mock drafts from multiple positions before the real event. Every year I feel there is a stronger part of the draft order where an owner might have a slight advantage for drafting. Knowing where this spot is in your draft can make a huge difference in you winning or losing you fantasy baseball league.
Let’s take a look at some of the sections of the draft and assess the strengths and weaknesses of each group.
Picks 1-5: If you value a shortstop, unless you get Hanley Ramirez, you are most likely in trouble. From the previous fantasy baseball mock draft article we know it is likely that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are not going to make it back in the second round. Derek Jeter is there in the third round but it is probably a little early to take him based on other value on the board.
Also at risk picking in these slots are your team stolen base totals. I usually try to set a goal of getting 40% of my teams stolen bases from my first three picks of the draft. Unless you grab Matt Kemp in the top five, chances are you are getting 15-20 steals from your first round pick. On the way back in the second round unless Justin Upton or Grady Sizemore slide to you, the only real stolen base numbers come from second basemen like Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia or Brian Roberts. Chances are though that if you took Chase Utley in the first round, you are not going to grab another second basemen in round two so you have to look elsewhere for steals.
In the third round, stolen base options would be a second basemen if you did not grab one in round two, Jayson Werth or reaching for Ichiro Suzuki or Derek Jeter. So if your goal for stolen bases is 170, and we are aiming for 40%, then we want to try and get 68 steals from the first three picks. Picking in the top 5 spots assuming no Kemp and unless Upton or Sizemore slide, you are most likely only going to be at around 40 to 50 steals so you need to keep that in mind as you prepare for the draft.
Picks 6-10: This is not a bad spot to be in as after the top five, the opinions widely vary on the next group of players so sitting at 10, there is a good chance that you could get one of the top players on your draft board.
Same potential problems with missing out on a shortstop lie in this draft range. Also at issue is possibly second base assuming Utley does not slide. There is a very good chance that Phillips, Pedroia and Roberts are all gone by the time the third round pick comes. That leaves possible options of Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, or Ben Zobrist coming back in the fourth round.
Third base could be an issue as well as you miss out on A-Rod in the first round and on David Wright in the second round. Mark Reynolds might slide to this group, but if you take Ryan Howard in the first round, it would be hard to take Reynolds here because you would start in a huge hole from a batting average perspective. Ryan Zimmerman and Kevin Youkilis are gone by the end of round two / start of round three so you miss them in the third round which leaves possibly Pablo Sandoval or Aramis Ramirez in the third round or else take the risk of hoping Ramirez slides back to your spot in the fourth round.
If you like to take catchers early, this spot could work to your advantage as you would like have a shot at Joe Mauer in the first, Victor Martinez in the second and Brian McCann in the third.
Picks 11-15: If you are a fan of position scarcity, this spot of the draft will give you some great draft selections with David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Kinsler all in this range. It is also a good spot to grab stolen bases with the above listed players as well as Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury in the mix as well.
Downside to this spot is you miss out on a top tier first basemen most likely. Five first basemen are off the board if the current average draft position (ADP) numbers hold up, as well as missing out on Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau in the second round on the way back. Possible options in the third or fourth round would be Kendry Morales, Lance Berkman or Pablo Sandoval if he slid. If you pass on all of the above players, the last shot at an upper tier first basemen is Derek Lee or Billy Butler in the fifth round but there is no guarantee they make it back to your turn.
That would leave one power hitting first basemen left on the draft board in Carlos Pena. The power would help but depending on what you do in the first few rounds would impact whether you can afford to pick him or not. If you happened to grab Ian Kinsler and Jimmy Rollins in rounds 1 and 2, two guys that hit around .280 or lower, adding Pena to the mix would put at risk your points in the batting average category.
