by Todd Lammi
This is the ninth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the closers. This is the most volatile position on your fantasy baseball team despite having the smallest category impact compared to other spots on your roster.
Each year there are usually 10 or more people that did not start the season at closer that end up getting a good amount of saves. That means that roughly 1/3 of the major league baseball teams are going to have closer issues. This makes the top tier of closers that much more valuable for their dependability and consistency. It also means once the top tiers of closers are gone, you don’t need to chase saves because there is a good chance multiple people from the middle to low tier is going to lose their job that you draft, and / or you are going to be able to get extra saves through free agency during the season.
With that said, let’s examine the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 1-15.
1) Jonathan Broxton – dominant first year as closer, highlighted by 114 strikeouts and a .165 batting average against. Strikeout value pushes him to the top of the closer list.
2) Joe Nathan – 2008 and 2009 seasons were pretty identical except for a few more saves and a couple of more home runs allowed that boosted his ERA up.
3) Jonathan Papelbon – numbers look okay on the surface, but underneath stats give me some pause. Reverted back to fly balls ways like 2007. Of course the higher fly ball percentage means there is more of a chance for home runs to be surrendered.
4) Mariano Rivera – keeps getting older and every year people question will this be the year his performance finally drops off and every season he answers the bell. I predict he answers the bell once again in 2010.
5) Joakim Soria – shoulder problems and time on the disabled list kept his numbers down, except for his strikeout rate which jumped 2.9 per nine innings.
6) Francisco Rodriguez – three straight seasons of walk rate going up and strikeout rate going down. Second half was brutal with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP ratio.
7) Andrew Bailey – was a starter for three years in the minors. Spent some time as a reliever in Double-A in 2008 and then again the in Arizona Fall league. Reliance on cutter seems to suit him better as a closer.
8.) Heath Bell – throttled right-handed hitters, holding them to a .138 batting average which was 116 points better than 2008. Surrendered zero home runs in the first half but then gave up three long balls after the All-Star break which jacked up his ERA.
9) Jose Valverde – missed a month and half of the early part of the season on the disabled list with a strained calf. Second half stats were back at his elite level with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP ratio.
10) Huston Street – lost his job as closer in April and once he got it back he was lights out converting 35 of 37 save opportunities. Stats were similar to his 2007 year. New contract extension gives him stability as the Colorado Rockies closer.
11) Brian Wilson – lowered his bating average against by 40 points and controlled home runs better in 2009; result was a 1.88 drop in ERA. Was better in the second half of the season with a 1.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP ratio.
12) Francisco Cordero – 2009 ERA and WHIP ratio look good on paper, but of concern is the drop in the strikeout rate of 2.2 per nine innings. Has been easier to hit by right-handers the last two seasons so expect some regression for his ERA in 2010.
13) Billy Wagner – came back from Tommy John surgery and looked good in a small sample size at the end of 2009. Good enough that he landed the closer job for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have some options in the bullpen to close games out so there will be some innings and saves he loses out on, even assuming full health.
14) Rafael Soriano – has had a big jump in his strikeout rate over the past two seasons, increasing his rate by 3.3 per nine innings. Injury history knocks his value down a few spots after spending time on the disabled list in three of the past five seasons.
15) Brian Fuentes – left Coors Field and somehow got worse. Possible combination of age plus the move to the American League impacted his numbers. Strikeout rate had a big drop going down by 4.3 per nine innings from 2008.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers 16 – 30.
