Posts Tagged ‘leagues’

Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Tuesday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 7th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

It is time to break out the bubbly, the Florida Marlins look like they are going to the World Series this year. Of course, they are beating up on the Washington Nationals, but still, with a solid lineup and two top of the rotation starters, the Marlins should be in the hunt for the playoffs if their bullpen can protect leads this season.  Now on to more important matters, fantasy baseball news and notes from Tuesday at the ballpark.

National League:

Josh Johnson, NL CY Young sleeper this year, health permitting. If Emilio Bonifacio keeps getting on base, Jorge Cantu is going to drive in a ton of runs this season. Cantu hit his second home run of the year on Tuesday. Cameron Maybin batting second got his first stolen base of the season. Austin Kearns hit his first home run for the Nationals. Still no sign of Josh Willingham or Elijah Dukes…..The San Francisco Giants beat the Milwaukee Brewers but the big news was ace Tim Lincecum leaving after three innings and only 78 pitches thrown. The Giants offense could be semi interesting this season with a lot of guys in the 10-15 home run range driving in 80-90 runs…..Seriously, isn’t there a class these managers could take on how to fill out a batting order to appease fantasy baseball players?  I really would like to know why Hunter Pence is batting behind Geoff Blum for the Houston Astros. Catcher Geovany Soto left in the sixth inning for the Chicago Cubs with soreness in his right shoulder. He is expected to be out of action until the weekend at the earliest…..Colby Rasmus got his first big league start for the St. Louis Cardinals and hit second in the batting order.  Joe Thurston got the start at 3b for the Cards as they continue to mix and match players to replace the injured Troy Glaus. Skip Schumaker got the start at second base and hit lead off…..Tory Tulowitzki hit his second home run in as many days as he looks to rebound from an injury plagued 2008. At least he moved up one spot in the lineup with Clint Barmes starting at second base sliding into the 8th spot in the batting order. Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton were in the lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks with Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes on the bench…..Jody Gerut took a seat on the bench for the San Diego Padres with the Los Angeles Dodgers starting a lefty. Scott Hairston took his place in the lineup. Orlando Hudson stole his second base of the season for the Dodgers.

American League:

Alex Gordon keeps right on rolling. I recently posted about his numbers from spring training and his work with new batting coach Kevin Seitzer and the hot streak continued Tuesday with Gordon’s first home run of the season….. Josh Beckett was dominant for the Boston Red Sox, striking out 10 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Matt Joyce and Gabe Gross were both in the lineup for the Rays with B.J. Upton currently on the disabled list…..Brandon Lyon blew his first save opportunity of the season for the Detroit Tigers. Nothing ruins a fantasy baseball day more than getting a 5 whip ratio from your closer……Brandon Morrow also blew his first save attempt of the year for the Seattle Mariners. Delmon Young got the start for the Minnesota Twins in place of Jason Kubel with the Mariners starting a left-hander on the mound….Rookie Trevor Cahill got the start for the Oakland Athletics and struggled with his control, giving up 5 hits and 5 walks in 4+ innings. Matt Holliday was out of the lineup for Oakland due to an illness.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball second basemen.

Tier 1 – Chase Utley

Tier 2 – Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips

Tier 3 – Alexei Ramirez, Dan Uggla

Tier 4 – Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Lopez

Tier 5 – Kaz Matsui, Rickie Weeks, Luis Castillo

Tier 6 – Howie Kendrick, Alexi Casilla, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson,  Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes

Tier 7 – Akinroi Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Jeff Baker, Chris Getz

Utley looks to be on track for opening day so I have him still rated as the only tier 1 player. It is interesting to see how many players have fallen out of the top 15 players in just the last two years that Kinsler and / or Pedroia are now going in the first round in some drafts.

Tier 2 represents all second round picks in a 15 team league. I like Kinsler for his power / speed combination. If he ever gets a full healthy season of 600+ at bats, he is looking at a potential 25 home run 30 steal season. I have Roberts next ahead of Pedroia. I have written in previous articles how I think Pedroia’s stats will see some regression this year. Roberts is consistently in the 10 home run, 55 rbi 40 steal range and I like the steals more that banking on Pedroia having a repeat performance of 2008. I have Pedroia ranked ahead of Phillips, giving the edge to Pedroia in runs scored and batting average, the edge to Phillips in home runs and stolen bases. I don’t want to sacrifice average the first five rounds of the draft so I would take Pedroia over Phillips if presented with the choice.

Alexei Ramirez has been going toward the end of the third round in most mock drafts. He will offer the added flexibility of being eligible at shortstop in the fourth week of the season assuming your league has the standard 20 games played rule to qualify at a position. Uggla’s current ADP is 63, which slots him at the end of round 4 / start of round 5. He homered, walked or struck out in 45% of his plate appearances in 2008.

At this point, most fantasy baseball owners draft sheets will vary quite a bit. I like Kelly Johnson next ahead of Cano. I think Cano is one of the more overrated fantasy baseball players. He always seems to get drafted 3-4 rounds earlier than he should. Possibly because he plays for the Yankees, or the fact that he hit .342 in 2006. Johnson I grade ahead of Cano because of the extra 5-10 bases he will swipe. DeRosa and Lopez I have grouped together next with DeRosa getting the edge for more consistency in batting average and to hedge against Lopez not being able to duplicate his stats at home from last season.

Tier 5, time to throw a dart at the board, as all of the players have speed, but also carry injury risk. Matsui has had over 400 at bats only once in the past four years so to say he is an injury risk is a bit of an understatement. He is currently penciled in as the Astros lead off hitter. A healthy 2009 could see Matsui with a line of 5 hr 50 rbi and 30 steals. Weeks has put up similar stats the last two years but his .240 average is a killer. At this point of the draft, Castillo is the last second basemen with the ability to steal 20+ bases, outside of possibly Felipe Lopez. Castillo seems to be healthy in spring and could steal 30 for the New York Mets this year.

Tier 6 is a jumbled mass of bodies. Kendrick like Cano is way overrated as well. He has never been healthy for a full season and even combining his 2006-2007 numbers which would have put him at 600 at bats, gives him 9 hr 69 rbi and 11 steals with close to a .300 average, looks a lot like what I expect from Alexi Casilla this season. Lopez could have a chance for a few more stolen bases if he improves his rate of 50% from last season (8 steals in 16 attempts). Hudson, Polanco, Sanchez, Fontenot, Barmes all offer similar stats in the 1o home run-60 rbi-10 stolen base range. Barmes also qualifies at shortstop.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 19th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

We have focused quite a few articles on ADP (average draft position) recently so now I want to tie that into another fantasy baseball tool which is the tiered system for player rankings.

A lot of the magazines or web sites for fantasy baseball have cheat sheets, but it is mostly a ranking by position of one to whatever number.  While it is good to know the order of what player you would draft before another on your sheet, most of the time you don’t have an idea of what the difference is between the two players.

That’s where having a tiered system to your draft sheet comes in handy, so you have an idea of what round you can take a particular player in, or if you can wait several rounds and get the same type of stats. It will also help prepare you so you are not left out if there is a run on a particular position.

If you combine a tiered system to drafting, along with doing your own mock draft based on your draft slot and using ADP, you will be able to improve your draft performances. Let’s take a look at first base and how a tiered system would apply.

First Base:

Tier 1 – Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera

Tier 2 – Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira, Lance Berkman

Tier 3 – Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez

Tier 4 – Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, Derek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Chris Davis

Tier 5 – Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Jason Giambi, Mike Jacobs, Adam LaRoche

Tier 6 – James Loney, Casey Kotchman, Pablo Sandoval, Todd Helton

Tier 7 – Ryan Garko, Nick Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Chad Tracy

Pujols and Cabrera are the top two players at first base so they get the Tier 1 ranking. In 2007, check the numbers, they had almost identical seasons with Cabrera’s slightly better. In 2008, home runs were the same, rbi went to Cabrera, runs to Pujols, but the big difference was the 60 point difference in batting average. Pujols was 30 points higher than the year before and Cabrera was roughly 30 points lower than the year before. Tier 2, Howard for his huge power numbers, although his average costs you anywhere from 2-3 points (from a team average of .283 to .280) by rostering him instead of a Texeira or Berkman. Texeira and Berkman round out the second tier because they are both .300 average, 30 plus home runs and 100+ runs and rbi, with Berkman getting the additional handful of stolen bases. Tier 3, I have Fielder, who I think is closer to a .280 35 hr 100 rbi hitter, grouped with Mourneau who falls just outside of Berkman and Texeira for inconsistencies in 30 home run power from year to year and Adrian Gonzalez who is 30-100-100 in the .280 average range.

Heading into the draft using the #5 draft slot as an example, assuming a 15 team league and using the ADP from Mock Draft Central, the question is who is your first round pick, assuming Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Jose Reyes are gone. With Alex Rodriguez hurt, pick #5 to me becomes the biggest question mark pick of the first round. You need to be able to have someone close in ability to the top four players already taken, and someone better than the players that are picked 6-15 in the remainder of the round. If you are considering Cabrera with the 5th pick, you need to look at your tier list and the ADP and see what that means. My question if I had that pick is, if I do not take Cabrera in round 1, what are my other options? Based on ADP, there is a chance Fielder slides to your second pick (26 overall) but maybe not. In round three, there is a chance to get Gonzalez with pick 35 overall. If you miss Gonzalez in round 3, who is probably the last sure thing to get at least .280-30-100-100 at first base, it becomes a little bit more of a gamble for stat accuracy (the likelihood that your statistical prediction comes true, based on your definition of true, whether you allow for a 2% variance, 5% variance or whatever the number may be).

I put Kevin Youkilis in Tier 4, I am not sold that he is a 30 home run hitter. Putting him in Tier 4 means I will not be drafting him, because his ADP is 40, which means he would most likely be gone by my pick in round 4, which would be 56 overall, assuming the #5 draft slot. I think to take him that early in the third round would be way too much of a risk. Joey Votto and Derek Lee I have grouped together next in Tier 4, they are both players I see in the .290-25-90-90-8 (sb) range. Chris Davis has 35-40 home run potential, and also the potential to break the strikeout record. He does have the ability to hit for average in the .270 range so I group him with Carlos Delgado, both players I see around .275-35-95-100.

If I have someone from one of the first four tiers, I would be happy at frst base. Anyone after that I would be disappointed. The players in Tiers 1-4 make up 13 players. If it is a 15 team league, that means at least two teams are ending up with players in Tier 5 or below. The possibility is it could be even more if someone takes a first basemen in the Top 4 Tiers and later adds another Top 4 Tier first baseman as a corner infielder. That is why I always chart the draft of other owners by position so I have an idea of how each team is filling in their roster to anticipate who might be going after which position.

Tier 5 I don’t have really grouped in any particular order. By this time you are probably in round 12 or later of your draft and your pick will be made on where you stand in certain categories. Tier 5 represents players that can provide 25+ home runs or more. Tier 6 represents players with the ability to hit 15-20 home runs, but also hit .280 to .300. Tier 7 represents players that could produce some decent stats, but each have question marks surrounding them. For Garko, does he lose at bats to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez? Does Nick Johnson lose at bats due to another injury or to Adam Dunn as Washington tries to rotate one of their 10 outfielders? Ishikawa should be the recepient of the majority of at bats in San Francisco assuming Brian Sabean does not let Rich Aurilia get another 400+ at bats. Tracy could lose at bats depending on the health of Eric Byrnes in Arizona.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Closer ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for closers and relief pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 J. Papelbon 59 Dan Wheeler 295
2 Brad Lidge 67 Grant Balfour 297
3 Joe Nathan 79 Rafael Perez 297
4 F. Rodriguez 81 Hong-Chih Kuo 297
5 Mariano Rivera 87 Kevin Gregg 307
6 Joakim Soria 95 C.J. Wilson 313
7 Bobby Jenks 106 Jon Rauch 313
8 Jose Valverde 113 Joel Zumaya 314
9 J. Broxton 117 Rafael Soriano 316
10 Brian Fuentes 118 Takashi Saito 318
11 Carlos Marmol 125 Jeff Samardzija 319
12 B.J. Ryan 126 Ryan Franklin 323
13 Matt Capps 144 F. Rodney 327
14 F. Cordero 148 Hideki Okajima 332
15 Kerry Wood 150 M. Kobayashi 334
16 Brian Wilson 162 Scot Shields 338
17 Mike Gonzalez 168 J. Masterson 342
18 Heath Bell 169 Miguel Batista 345
19 Matt Lindstrom 173 Jensen Lewis 349
20 Trevor Hoffman 184 Mark Lowe 349
21 Chad Qualls 190 Scott Linebrink 351
22 Joey Devine 191 J. Isringhausen 358
23 Huston Street 197 Octavio Dotel 365
24 Joel Hanrahan 200 Braden Looper 367
25 Frank Francisco 212 M. Delcarmen 368
26 Brandon Lyon 227 Jeremy Accardo 369
27 Brad Ziegler 232 Tyler Walker 373
28 Chris Perez 248 Tony Pena 377
29 J.J. Putz 253 Eric Gagne 378
30 George Sherrill 257 R. Betancourt 379
31 Troy Percival 258 Scott Downs 388
32 Chris Ray 291 Leo Nunez 392
33 Manny Corpas 291 Chad Cordero 392
34 Jason Motte 293 Aaron Heilman 398
35 Dan Wheeler 295 Juan Cruz 411
36 Grant Balfour 297 Ryan Madson 412
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 Johan Santana 22 Gavin Floyd 171 T. Wellemeyer 309
2 Tim Lincecum 28 Matt Garza 176 David Bush 310
3 CC Sabathia 37 Scott Baker 181 Jamie Moyer 310
4 Cole Hamels 45 Erik Bedard 185 Taylor Buchholz 311
5 Jake Peavy 48 Ted Lilly 191 Ian Snell 312
6 Brandon Webb 50 C. Kershaw 194 Brad Penny 312
7 Roy Halladay 50 Aaron Cook 197 Anibal Sanchez 312
8 Dan Haren 59 Joe Saunders 197 Joe Blanton 314
9 F. Liriano 72 Jair Jurrjens 203 Ben Sheets 315
10 Josh Beckett 75 Johnny Cueto 206 Clay Buchholz 316
11 Roy Oswalt 78 Gil Meche 216 Anthony Reyes 317
12 Cliff Lee 78 C. Wang 216 Sean Marshall 317
13 James Shields 84 Jered Weaver 216 Gio Gonzalez 317
14 Chad Billingsley 84 J. Duchscherer 220 Glen Perkins 320
15 Ervin Santana 88 Mike Pelfrey 233 Barry Zito 320
16 Scott Kazmir 93 W. Rodriguez 236 J. Bonderman 321
17 John Lackey 94 Andy Pettitte 237 Sean Gallagher 321
18 Felix Hernandez 95 Jon. Sanchez 239 Kyle Davies 336
19 A.J. Burnett 105 John Maine 241 Tim Redding 336
20 Jon Lester 105 Scott Olsen 245 Homer Bailey 336
21 D. Matsuzaka 113 Jesse Litsch 245 Andrew Miller 337
22 Yovani Gallardo 116 Hiroki Kuroda 249 D. McGowan 338
23 E. Volquez 116 Oliver Perez 258 John Lannan 338
24 C. Zambrano 125 Jeremy Guthrie 263 J.P. Howell 339
25 Rich Harden 126 Chris Carpenter 264 Greg Smith 339
26 Ricky Nolasco 126 Ubaldo Jimenez 264 Edwin Jackson 340
27 Matt Cain 127 A. Galarraga 271 Pedro Martinez 340
28 Justin Verlander 132 John Smoltz 274 Rich Hill 341
29 Javier Vazquez 132 Manny Parra 276 J. de la Rosa 346
30 A. Wainwright 136 K. Kawakami 278 Shaun Marcum 351
31 Zack Greinke 138 Paul Maholm 284 Tim Wakefield 355
32 Brett Myers 143 Koji Uehara 288 Trevor Cahill 357
33 Chris Young 151 F. Carmona 289 Tim Hudson 362
34 Josh Johnson 153 Mark Buehrle 290 Dana Eveland 362
35 Randy Johnson 157 A. Sonnanstine 292 Shawn Hill 365
36 John Danks 158 Philip Hughes 297 Jon Garland 366
37 Derek Lowe 161 Kyle Lohse 303 Dallas Braden 386
38 Ryan Dempster 164 Kelvim Escobar 305 Brian Bannister 391
39 Aaron Harang 166 Bronson Arroyo 307 Micah Owings 394
40 Kevin Slowey 169 Randy Wolf 308 Kevin Millwood 400
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 15th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for infielders.

Rank First Base ADP Second Base ADP Third Base ADP
1 Albert Pujols 3 Ian Kinsler 11 David Wright 4
2 Miguel Cabrera 7 Chase Utley 16 Alex Rodriguez 12
3 Ryan Howard 12 Dustin Pedroia 23 Evan Longoria 21
4 Mark Teixeira 13 Brandon Phillips 29 Aramis Ramirez 32
5 Lance Berkman 17 Brian Roberts 36 Chipper Jones 54
6 Justin Morneau 22 Alexei Ramirez 49 Garrett Atkins 76
7 Prince Fielder 25 Dan Uggla 65 Chone Figgins 79
8 Adrian Gonzalez 37 Robinson Cano 83 Aubrey Huff 90
9 Kevin Youkilis 40 Howie Kendrick 129 R.Zimmerman 96
10 Chris Davis 59 Jose Lopez 162 E. Encarnacion 120
11 Joey Votto 66 Kaz Matsui 181 Alex Gordon 145
12 Carlos Pena 69 Mark DeRosa 191 Jorge Cantu 146
13 Derrek Lee 75 Kelly Johnson 193 Adrian Beltre 153
14 James Loney 100 Placido Polanco 200 Carlos Guillen 196
15 Carlos Delgado 101 Rickie Weeks 201 Ty Wigginton 201
16 Paul Konerko 170 Orlando Hudson 265 Melvin Mora 207
17 Hank Blalock 180 Felipe Lopez 267 Mark Reynolds 212
18 Pablo Sandoval 203 Mark Ellis 267 Casey Blake 253
19 Jason Giambi 203 Akinori Iwamura 269 K. Kouzmanoff 256
20 Mike Jacobs 212 Alexi Casilla 277 Ian Stewart 266
Rank Shortstop ADP Second Base ADP Utility ADP
1 Hanley Ramirez 1 Russell Martin 45 David Ortiz 53
2 Jose Reyes 4 Brian McCann 48 Jim Thome 169
3 Jimmy Rollins 9 Joe Mauer 59 Travis Hafner 244
4 Rafael Furcal 60 Geovany Soto 65 Kendry Morales 272
5 Michael Young 84 Victor Martinez 74 Gary Sheffield 296
6 Stephen Drew 87 Ryan Doumit 119
7 Derek Jeter 95 Matt Wieters 130
8 Troy Tulowitzki 96 Chris Iannetta 138
9 Jhonny Peralta 99 Mike Napoli 155
10 J.J. Hardy 106 Bengie Molina 170
11 Miguel Tejada 126 Jorge Posada 210
12 O. Cabrera 160 Jeff Clement 240
13 Mike Aviles 170 A.J. Pierzynski 251
14 Ryan Theriot 186 R. Hernandez 253
15 Yunel Escobar 191 Dioner Navarro 258
16 Khalil Greene 204 Kurt Suzuki 268
17 Jason Bartlett 218 Kelly Shoppach 276
18 Edgar Renteria 239 Gerald Laird 303
19 Jed Lowrie 254 Yadier Molina 311
20 C. Guzman 274 Brandon Inge 312
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 6-10

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, lets look at rounds 6-10 of the draft with each player having the biggest upside or downside per round. The same assumptions are in play, 15 team mixed league fantasy baseball draft, using the average draft positions (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC scoring system.

Round 6:

Upside - Ryan Ludwick (88) – The upside is not there in terms of performance; I don’t see him surpassing his 37 home runs of a year ago, but with the his ADP currently as the third from last pick of round 6, I would be happy to take 32 home runs and a .285 average from him. Remember last year, he started off in a platoon situation with the St. Louis Cardinals, so the stats he put up were in roughly 75-100 at bats less than what he will have this season, barring any type of injury of course.

Downside - Scott Kazmir (90) – He has only thrown over 200 innings one time in the last three years. The injury risk alone makes push him below some of the pitchers that are going in rounds 7-9. Add in his wildness at the end of last season, he walked 18 batters in 25 2/3 innings in the postseason and the 6th round is too high for him.

Round 7:

Upside – Joakim Soria (94) – The seventh round is usually where I start looking for a closer in a 15 team draft if there is a solid pick that has slid that far. Soria at #94 fits that profile this season. It would be nice if his strikeout rate was a little bit higher, but with his earned run average and whip ratio, that might be nit-picking him too much. People discount him because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, but bad teams tend to play quite a few close games when they do win, so save chances will always be available. Currently he is the sixth closer being drafted.

Downside - James Loney (99) – One thing to keep in mind when projecting rookies or young players seeing at bats for the first time is that is not a good idea to prorate stats from a partial season and assume that he will carry those numbers into the following year. Case in point is James Loney who hit .331 in 344 at bats in 2007 with 15 home runs. A lot of people were projecting him for 25 home runs and 100+ rbi with a .300 average last season and he came up way short in the home run department with only 13. His career high in the minor leagues was 11 in 2005.

Round 8:

Upside – J.J. Hardy (105) – So I cheated a little bit and stuck him in round 8, although technically his ADP is the last pick of round 7. Hardy has put up two pretty similar seasons the last two years. His stats are pretty much in line with Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta, both of which are going a full one round higher than Hardy in mock drafts. Alcides Escobar may be the future for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop but he is no threat to Hardy’s job in 2009.

Downside - Joba Chamberlain (107) – Yes, in his 11 starts he put up some nice numbers, but he only had three wins to show for it, despite striking out 74 batters in 65 innings. In 2009, he is slated to open the season as the New York Yankees fifth starter which means he might get skipped a start or two for rainouts or additional rest. If the New York Yankees fall out of the play-off race late in the year, there is a chance they would limit his innings since he only threw a little over 100 last season. With Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edison Volquez and Yovani Gallardo all going after Chamberlain, in addition to Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, there are better options in the 8th round with less risk attached to them.

Round 9:

Upside - Brad Hawpe (132) – There is not much upside potential in round 9, but Hawpe being available at the end of the round is a good pick. He offers a solid average in the .290 range with 25 home runs and 100 rbi potential.

Downside – Nelson Cruz (128) – Fantasy players are going a little overboard I think in projecting Cruz’s 2009 numbers based on 115 at bats in 2008. Yes he has power potential, but remember that he is already 28, this is not a rookie we are talking about. Last year was his third season in the major leagues with the Texas Rangers. If you combine his stats over three seasons with Texas, his numbers are 22 home runs, 82 rbi and 6 steals in 552 at bats. Not bad numbers, but there is a reason those numbers are spread out over three years; the Rangers have never given him chance at 500+ at bats in one season. With Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones in the wings, there is no guarantee he gets those at bats this year either, unless he gets off to a blazing start to the season. There is a lot of risk to picking him in the 8th round with other alternatives still on the draft board.

Round 10:

Upside – Jorge Cantu (143) – It is nice to find a corner infielder with 30 home run power still on the board in round 10. Cantu offers the additional flexibility of qualifying at 1b and 3b. He also turned the magical age of 27 in January if you believe in that phenomenon.

Downside – Xavier Nady (149) Nady had a career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates / New York Yankees last season. With all career years, there is always a very good chance for regression the following season. The Yankees also have a few extra hitters floating around in their outfield so Nady might lose 100-150 at bats even as a starter, depdning how much playing time the combination of Melky Cabrera / Brett Gardner / Nick Swisher receive.

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