Posts Tagged ‘league’

Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Wednesday

by Todd Lammi

Very sad news today in the world of sports today as Los Angeles Angels rookie starting pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed in a car accident Thursday morning. Adenhart, 22, was the starting pitcher against the Oakland Athletics last night and had thrown six shutout innings.

In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Wednesday…

American League:

Derek Jeter went yard for the New York Yankees who are still looking for their first win of the season. Koji Uehara was solid in his first start for the Baltimore Orioles, but where are the strikeouts?….Zach Miner got the win for the Detroit Tigers thanks in part to Brandon Inge, who hit his third home run of the season. Did I mention that he hits better as an infielder? Miguel Cabrera hit two home runs for the Tigers. I expect a monster season from Cabrera this season as he should league the American League in rbi…..Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria both went deep for the Tampa Bay Rays. Nice to see Rocco Baldeill make it back, as he started in right field for the Boston Red Sox…..Fausto Carmona, err, not a good start with the Cleveland Indians. Nelson Cruz for the Texas Rangers hit two home runs and stole a base. Elvis Andrus even chipped in with a home run; that is pure gravy if you own him….Kevin Slowey got the win for the Minnesota Twins, although his line was not that pretty. Denard Span has put his awful spring behind him and is off to a good start in week one, slugging his first home run of the season…..Zack Greinke looked sharp for the Kansas City Royals as did Gavin Floyd for the Chicago White Sox. Note on Gavin Floyd, his strikeouts were up in spring training and in his first start, this may be the season he kicks up his strikeout rate up a notch.

National League:

The Florida Marlins continued to roll. Emilio Bonifacio stole his fourth base of the season. Chris Volstad struck out 7 in 5 innings of work. Closer Matt Lindstrom looked shaky, loading the bases with one out before getting out of the jam. Elijah Dukes got his first start of the year in center field over Lastings Milledge for the Washington Nationals…..If you had game three in the Chipper Jones injury pool, you are a winner as Chipper sat with a bruised left thumb. Jordan Schafer hit his second home run of the season. Don’t get too excited thinking he is going to hit 30+ home runs, his career high in the minor leagues was 10. Dexter Fowler got the start in center field for the Colorado Rockies and hit his first home run in the major leagues. Manager Clint Hurdle said Fowler will see time against left-handed pitching and some right handers so I see Fowler getting 300-350 at bats…..New year, different result for Edison Volquez as he struggled against the New York Mets. I see some downside to Volquez who had a stellar year last year. Downside as in not likely to repeat last year’s numbers because they were just too good. There is always some regression to the mean…..Alfonso Soriano stole his frst base of the year for the Chicago Cubs. Jeff Keppinger got the start at 3b for the Houston Astros. He is a good free agent pickup in NL only leagues as he should see time against left-handed starters. How bad is the Astros staff that Russ Ortiz is on it?….David Freese got the start at 3b for the St. Louis Cardinals as manager Tony La Russa tries to set a major league record for having a different starting third basemen for every game of the season. Zach Duke who had a respectable spring for the Pittsburgh Pirates had a good first start…..Rule 5 pick Everth Cabrera got the start at shortstop for the San Diego Padres. I like Cabrera in NL only leagues as he has a chance to steal 15-20 bases this season in a reserve role. The best reliever in the National League (sorry K-Rod) Jonathan Broxton got his second save of the season for the Los Angeles Dodgers…..Yovani Gallardo (love him!) got the first win of the year for the Milwaukee Brewers. Gallardo should be good for close to 200 strikeouts this season health permitting.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Auctions – Advanced Strategy

by Todd Lammi

In my previous post, I talked about some basics surrounding fantasy baseball auctions. Now it is time to delve a little deeper into some more advanced strategies for success in your fantasy baseball league auction.

1) Be Patient – during the early part of the auction, it can get somewhat frenzied, because usually the big names are thrown out and the dollar amounts are being thrown out back and forth at a rapid pace. Don’t get caught up in the excitement and spend several dollars more than what a player is worth. Remember, you are trying to buy the best value for your team. If you have $260 as your team budget, by the end of the year, you are hoping that $260 team returned $300-$350 worth of value. If the players you bought end up only returning $260 worth of value, the same as what you paid for them, chances are you are not going to finish in the top three places of your fantasy baseball league unless you get extremely lucky with your in season free agent pickups.

There will at some point come a lull in the auction where a group of players will go for less than what their value is. That is the point of the auction that you want to be ready to grab those players. Don’t be worried if there are 20 players already gone from the auction board and none are on your team. You might find yourself buying the next two to three players in a row because their final dollar amount is under the value you assigned to them.

2) Be Prepared – in an auction league you don’t have the time between bids to look through your sheets, or flip through a magazine as you do in a draft where there is some set time between draft picks. In an auction, the action is non stop, so be prepared with all of your information so you do not have to reference it between or during bids. There are usually several breaks in the auction, this is your time to regroup, look up information and double check your dollar totals per team.

The second area to be prepared in is in terms of understanding each teams depth chart, especially in you are participating in an NL or AL only auction league. Being able to grab two to three players for under $5 who will get 400 at bats compared to getting stuck with three players that do not end up making the major league roster could be the difference between whether your team finishes in the money or not. In an NL or AL only auction, the more roster spots you have filled with players that have starting jobs and are able to accumulate stats for the entire course of the season, the better your chances of winning become.

3) Be careful price enforcing – usually in every auction there are a couple of owners that try to price enforce. If David Wright’s value is around $40 and the bidding starts slowing down around $37, an owner in an effort to price enforce might say $38, feeling that someone will bid $39 because Wright’s value is $40.  Also, letting an owner accumulate players below their draft value means that owner is already getting that extra value we talked about earlier. The one caveat to price is enforcing is to make sure you can afford the player if you get stuck with him and two, make sure it is a player you want on your roster. I have seen far too many times where an owner tries to price enforce, there are no other bids and he gets stuck with player and ends up grumbling to himself, as he has now thrown his auction strategy out of whack.

4) Vary your nominating strategy – some fantasy baseball owners nominate the same type of player every time, but it is a good idea to change up the way you nominate players so other owners do not get a read on what your strategy is and what players you might be interested in. For example, an owner might only nominate players he is interested in buying, some owners nominate only players they have no interest in buying. For me, I try to employ several different tactics. If I am planning on spending say $25 at second base in an NL only auction league and I have targeted two players for that spot, Brandon Phillips or Rickie Weeks. If there is a second baseman in the $18 range that I don’t have interest in, like Kelly Johnson, I throw him out there. Doing that does two things, it sets the price market a little bit, you can see what Johnson is bought for compared to his value and two, it somewhat eliminates the owner from bidding on one of the two second basemen that you want later on, unless said owner plans on sinking $40+ dollars into his second base and middle infield position which is not too likely. If there is an end game player you are looking at in the $5 range, say an Erick Hinske, nominating him early in the draft might allow you to acquire him a little bit cheaper because other owners don’t want to waste a roster spot that early in the auction process.

5) Be aware of who else likes your players - if you play in a league that allows trading, for every player that you buy, right down next to that player who was the last owner bidding against you. That way during the season, if you decide to trade a player, you might have a potential trade partner already lined up based on the other owner showing interest during the draft.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder ADP

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for outfielders.

Rank Outfield ADP Outfield ADP Outfield ADP
1 Grady Sizemore 6 Xavier Nady 157 Josh Willingham 304
2 Ryan Braun 7 Milton Bradley 158 Josh Anderson 304
3 Josh Hamilton 12 Pat Burrell 158 Jack Cust 304
4 Matt Holliday 16 Eric Byrnes 173 Chase Headley 304
5 B.J. Upton 19 Conor Jackson 176 Daniel Murphy 305
6 Carlos Beltran 21 Adam Jones 185 Ken Griffey 305
7 Manny Ramirez 22 Justin Upton 192 Felix Pie 308
8 Carlos Lee 23 Hideki Matsui 196 Nyjer Morgan 309
9 Alfonso Soriano 24 Jeremy Hermida 197 Ben Francisco 309
10 Carl Crawford 27 Denard Span 200 G. Anderson 310
11 Ichiro Suzuki 28 Rick Ankiel 208 Colby Rasmus 312
12 Nick Markakis 33 Nick Swisher 208 K. Fukudome 312
13 Matt Kemp 33 Fred Lewis 222 Jody Gerut 313
14 Jason Bay 35 Elijah Dukes 226 Jerry Owens 316
15 Alex Rios 38 Coco Crisp 227 Gary Matthews 317
16 Carlos Quentin 39 Delmon Young 227 Chris Duncan 317
17 Vlad Guerrero 42 C. Maybin 231 F. Gutierrez 317
18 C. Granderson 48 Adam Lind 233 Ryan Sweeney 322
19 Shane Victorino 49 Luke Scott 234 Matt Joyce 329
20 Jacoby Ellsbury 51 Carlos Gomez 240 Jerry Hairston 331
21 Nate McLouth 54 Ryan Church 247 Matt LaPorta 335
22 Corey Hart 55 Jeff Francoeur 248 Marcus Thames 339
23 Bobby Abreu 61 Shin-Soo Choo 250 Brian Giles 340
24 M. Ordonez 66 David DeJesus 256 Carlos Gonzalez 341
25 Adam Dunn 68 Juan Pierre 256 Brett Gardner 343
26 Hunter Pence 72 Randy Winn 266 Dexter Fowler 346
27 Jermaine Dye 92 Mike Cameron 268 Melky Cabrera 348
28 Ryan Ludwick 92 M. Cuddyer 275 Andruw Jones 359
29 Jay Bruce 94 Ryan Spilborghs 276 A. McCutchen 363
30 Torii Hunter 103 J.D. Drew 278 Mark Teahen 365
31 Chris Young 103 Michael Bourn 279 Eric Hinske 367
32 Johnny Damon 109 Jose Guillen 283 Rocco Baldelli 369
33 Andre Ethier 109 Jason Kubel 283 Matt Diaz 370
34 Vernon Wells 110 Aaron Rowand 287 W. Balentien 373
35 Raul Ibanez 120 Chris Dickerson 288 Steven Pearce 375
36 Nelson Cruz 129 Cody Ross 292 Seth Smith 381
37 Jayson Werth 132 David Murphy 293 Rajai Davis 382
38 Brad Hawpe 132 Juan Rivera 297 Travis Buck 385
39 L. Milledge 132 Travis Snider 298 Scott Podsednik 397
40 Willy Taveras 147 Skip Schumaker 301 Marlon Byrd 398

2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 1-5

by Todd Lammi

Today we are going to look at the one person with the most upside and downside per round based on a 15 team fantasy baseball draft with average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.

Round 1:

Upside - Ryan Braun (7) – Has a great chance of hitting over 40 home run this season, with 100+ runs and rbi’s. Add in 15-20 steals and the potential for a .300 average and Braun represents the best upside in the first round, based on his draft slot and the chance to exceed his 2008 numbers.

Downside - Ian Kinsler (9) – I like Kinsler, but not at number nine. He has never surpassed 518 at bats in the last three years and with the possibility to grab Pedroia / Phillips/ Roberts in the 2nd round or even Alexei Ramirez in the third round, Kinsler is going to leave some owners crushed if they are picking him this high.

Round 2:

Upside - Alfonso Soriano (24) – it was just two years ago he was 40-40 and that was for the lowly Washington Nationals. Prorate his numbers over a whole season last year and Soriano would have been at 44 home runs and 28 stolen bases. If you are slotted in the in the 7-9 spots of your draft order, count your lucky stars if Soriano falls to you in the second round.

Downside – Dustin Pedroia (23) There is some regression coming this year, there is little chance Pedroia duplicates his stats from last season. Take away 10 steals from Pedroia and a couple of home runs and you are looking at Kelly Johnson plus 30 points in batting average. Not a second round pick in my eyes with the other players available on the board.

Round 3:

Upside - Matt Kemp (38) The explosion is coming, it might be a year away, but soon we will be seeing regular seasons of 25 home runs and 35+ steals from Mr. Kemp. To get those steals in the middle of the third round, plus close to a .300 average is a bargain.

Downside - Kevin Youkilis (37) Not sure that I believe he is a 30 home run hitter after hitting only 16 in 2007. Even if I knew for certain he was going to hit 30, I would rather wait until round 4 or 5 and grab Chris Davis or Joey Votto.  There is better value available in the third round.

Round 4:

Upside - Alexei Ramirez (48) – his numbers are not that far off from the three second baseman that are going ahead of him in the draft, discounting Chase Utley. Ramirez will have the added bonus after three weeks into the regular season of being eligible at SS for those leagues with a 20 game rule.

Downside - Joe Mauer (53) – Mauer is coming off of kidney surgery in January and recently has been bothered by a sore back. There are four very good options at catcher available after Mauer, who could potentially start the season the disabled list.  I would take the following; Soto (67), Victor Martinez (78), Doumit (120) and Ianetta (133), all ahead of Mauer.

Round 5:

Upside - Chris Davis (65) – Has a chance to be this year’s Ryan Howard with a higher batting average. A nice upside pick with the chance to hit 35-40 home runs and bat over .290.

Downside - Magglio Ordonez (64) – Ordonez had a solid year last year, and is always around the .300 mark but with zero speed and with only 20-25 home run, spending a fifth round pick on him is not  a good investment. There are lots of outfielders you can select later on in the draft that will put up the same or better numbers than Ordonez will in 2008.

2009 Fantasy Baseball links for keeper leagues

by Todd Lammi

Sticking with the theme of keeper leagues, I want to share some of my favorite free links for finding information on minor league players. Some of these may already be familiar to you, but hopefully some will provide you with new sources of information as you prepare for your fantasy baseball draft.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k9topprospectspt1 – If you are looking for rookies for this season as well as the future, Jason Grey of EPSN has his top 100 list available. I have played against Jason in several NFBC leagues in Las Vegas and he is a tough competitor in auction leagues. He has some really good insight into players along with recommendations from time to time. If Jason is speaking on fantasy baseball, I am always listening.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355 – Also of ESPN, Keith Law has his top 100 prospect list up as well. The top 25 are free to read, the next 75 require an ESPN insider subscription.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/ – great place for finding career minor league statistics. Pitcher stats include hr/9, k/9 and bb/9 ratios.

www.minorleagueball – site by John Sickels, has a good selection of current prospects as well as prospect retro section which will hopefully give you some insight into current major league players and how their minor league performance transferred to the big leagues. Also has prospects per team which tend to draw quite a few comments so if you like discussing the minor leaguers of your favorite team, this is a good site for you.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ – if you play in an AL or NL only league, this is a must reading site to give you a look at player contracts. It is helpful to review contracts that are expiring after the current season so you can determine people that may be potentially traded depending on the team they play for. Because you lose players in the off-season that are traded in most leagues, this site will help you avoid that potential problem from year to year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/ – a lot of the information in Baseball America is subscription content, but there is a free Ask BA section where staff members answer questions that can provide some insight into players as well as a weekly Hot Sheet once the minor league season starts.

www.minorleaguebaseball.com – the official site of minor league baseball.

2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Finally the month of March has come. That means fantasy baseball drafts are right around the corner. Now that spring training is officially underway, lets take a look at some the player’s whose average draft position are rising and falling the last two weeks, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Rising:

Brett Gardner – Gardner has been on the rise with talk out of New York that he has a chance to possibly be the Yankees opening day center fielder and lead off hitter. Gardner has the potential to steal 40 bases with a full-time job and his current ADP of 374 puts him the 24-26 round range depending if you have 14 or 15 teams in your league. He is also a good target for AL-only leagues where steals are at a premium.

Dana Eveland – no real news on Eveland so far in spring. People could be picking up on his first half numbers of 3.49 e.r.a and 1.4 whip ratio with 74 strikeouts as his true numbers before he bombed in the second half and was sent to Triple-A in August for a short time. ADP has increased 120 spots in the last two weeks.

Daniel Murphy – his ADP jump of 99 spots has to be driven by New York Mets fans. He might be part of a platoon with Fernando Tatis in the outfield. His minor league numbers suggest the potential for a decent .280-.300 batting average with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 rbi’s.

Miguel Batista – currently the leader in a three arm race with Mark Lowe and Roy Corcoran to be the Seattle Mariner’s closer. His numbers in relief last season were not any better than when he was a starter. APD has risen 90 spots, putting him in the 25th round range. If he  enter the season as the closer, he might be good for 10-15 saves before he loses the job.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman is currently battling for the 5th starter spot with the Chicago Cubs. With multiple bullpen options already with Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Chad Gaudin and possibly Jeff Samardzija, it makes sense to see if Heilman can bolster the rotation. ADP has jumped 76 spots in the last two weeks.

Falling:

Ben Sheets - was close to signing a contract with the Texas Rangers last month before they discovered he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. The surgery is expected to sideline him until after the All-Star break. Not worth drafting unless you play in a dynasty / ultimate league. ADP has fallen 139 spots.

Braden Looper - recently signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, Looper will miss the next 1-2 weeks with an oblique strain and could start the season on the disabled list. ADP has dropped 62 spots the last two weeks.

Jeremy Bonderman - recently underwent an MRI on his right shoulder, his availability for the start of the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation is still in question. ADP has declined 22 spots.

Josh Fields - Fields, the potential starting third basemen for the Chicago White Sox will have to battle Wilson Betemit and recently signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo for the position. Fields has lost some of his luster as a prospect from a few years ago as he is now 26 and put up disappointing numbers in Triple-A last season. His ADP has slid 21 spots.

Mike Fontenot – Fontenot appeared slated to be the starting second basemen for the Chicago Cubs until the Cubs signed Aaron Miles to a two year contract. They could end up in a platoon role with Fontenot getting the majority of at bats as the left-handed hitter. Fontenot’s ADP has fallen 26 spots the last two weeks.

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