Posts Tagged ‘Justin Upton’

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 16th, 2011

Here is the sixth article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. A lot of time there are several outfielders that are ranked close and there could just be a point or two difference depending on what kind of ranking system you are using so then it all comes down to a matter of preference.

For example, I have Matt Holliday (4) and Josh Hamilton (5) with pretty close scored but given Hamilton’s injury, if I were at the draft table, I would take Holliday and the rankings reflect that.

Just a reminder that if you are looking for more player capsules and stat projections, the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide will be released on February 1 so be sure to check back for that.

1. Ryan Braun – hard to quibble with a .300 batting average, 100 RBI ever year and double digit stolen bases. Jump in ground ball rate the last two years has caused home runs to drop. Until he gets that turned around, 35 – 40 home runs is out of the question.

2. Carl Crawford – every few years seems to flirt with 20 home runs but not quite reach it. Hit .300 for the 5th time in his career and has stolen at least 46 bases every season except 2008 when he was injured. Has a .275 career average in Fenway Park with four home runs and 33 RBI in 320 at bats.

3. Carlos Gonzalez – how locked in at home was he? Batted .380 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI with an 18% strikeout rate. On the road, he hit 8 home runs with 41 RBI and a 28% strikeout rate. Despite being a young player with upside, there has to be a little correction coming in 2011.

4. Matt Holliday – hit .300 for the 6th season in a row and drove in 100 runs for the second straight year. Only blip was his stolen bases fell under double digits. Look for more of the same in 2011.

5. Josh Hamilton – had 100 at bats less than 2008 and still posted a similar stat line. Batting average was inflated will head down in 2011. Only concerns with owning him is the injury risk.

6. Matt Kemp – strikeout rate jumped to 28% and he was a mess on the base paths, going 19-for-34. Numbers dropped off in the second half with a .233 average and only four stolen bases. 2011 is a new season with a new coach so no reason now to expect some bounce back.

7. Shin-Soo Choo – numbers from 2009 and 2010 were very very close. It is going to be hard for him to crack 25+ home runs with his current ground ball rate where it is at. Still, a 20-20 outfielder with a .300 average is a good get in early rounds.

8. Nelson Cruz – Injuries have held him under 470 at bats the last two seasons. Massive difference when he hits at home, hit .371 / .267 home vs. road in 2010 and .286 / .232 in 2009.

9. Andrew McCutchen – made some nice small gains in his second season, slighlt raising walks and cutting strikeouts. Ended the season on a high note hiting .326 in September with 4 home runs, 15 RBI and 17 walks against 9 strikeouts.

10. Justin Upton – missed all of Septmeber with a shoulder injury but it had to be bothering him longer than that looking at his numbers after the All-Star break with just three home runs in 167 at bats. Of bigger concern in 2011 is his strikeout rate which jumped to 31% last year. With Adam LaRoche and Mark Reynolds both gone, lots of RBI to be had in the middle of the lineup.

11. Alex Rios – seemed more comfortable in Chicago for a full season and his numbers were in line with his 2008 year in Toronto. Was huge in the first half of the year where he hit .305 with 15 home runs and stole 23 bases vs. 258 in the second half with 6 long balls and 11 steals.

12. Jacoby Ellsbruy – rib injuries knocked him out of action for almost all of 2010. Still remains to be seen if he hits leadoff this season with all of the changes to the Boston lineup. This ranking is based on his remaining in the top spot.

13. Jayson Werth – expect the average to come back down after a little bit of luck in 2010. Will miss Citizens Bank Park where he hit .293 with 52 home runs in 901 at bats.

14. Jason Heyward - hit with more power before the All-Star break but had a better batting average the second half of the year. Impressive walk to strikeout ration in his rookie season at 91 vs. 128. Needs to hit more fly balls to give him a chance for more home runs as right now a long of the long balls are line drive shots.

15. Andre Ethier – problems hitting left-handed pitching keeps his average from reaching .300. Suffered injury in May which cost him at bats and then power in June as he hit only one home run in 105 at bats.

16. Ichiro Suzuki – despite his advancing age, keeps himself in some great shape that his career low in at bats has been 639 in 10 seasons. Scored under 100 runs for the second year in a row thanks to a weak Seattle offense. Contact rate and speed has dropped the last two years slightly so stealing 40 bases again is going to be harder.

17. Hunter Pence – has been pretty consistent with stats bunched tightly together. Home runs have been 25 for three straight seasons. Stolen bases rose for the second straight year. Expect more of the same in 2011.

18. Curtis Granderson – was on track for a repeat season of 2009 until injuries struck. Liked his new home stadium where he hit four more home runs and batting 30 points higher. His rising strikeout rate though keeps his batting average in check. Hit 17 home runs in 241 at bats after the break.

19. B.J. Upton - there was a lot going on for B.J. behind the numbers in 2010. On the plus side, walk rate went up. On the down side, strike out rate has risen for the second straight year to 31% now. Batting average against right-handed pitchers has fallen for three straight years to not sit at .218.

20. Shane Victorino – hit a career high 18 home runs aided by 12 from the lead off spot when he was filling in for Jimmy Rollins. After the All-Star break he came back to earth, hitting four home runs with 21 RBI in 235 at bats. Batting avergae dropped against right-handed pitching for the second straight year.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft – First Two Rounds

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2010

Here are the results from 10 fantasy baseball mock drafts I have participated in over the last week in 15 team mixed league formats. The list below shows the order of players selected, the percent of time they were drafted in the top 30 players and their high and low number in the top 30 picks.

One player on the rise is Matt Holliday who has gone from a mid second round pick to someone that has been appearing late in the first round in my most recent drafts.

15 Team Mixed Draft
Rank Name % Drafted High Low
1 Albert Pujols 100% 1 2
2 Hanley Ramirez 100% 1 2
3 Alex Rodriguez 100% 3 4
4 Chase Utley 100% 3 7
5 Ryan Braun 100% 4 6
6 Mark Teixeira 100% 5 10
7 Prince Fielder 100% 3 18
8 Matt Kemp 100% 3 13
9 Ryan Howard 100% 4 12
10 Evan Longoria 100% 8 13
11 Miguel Cabrera 100% 8 14
12 Joe Mauer 100% 5 19
13 Tim Lincecum 100% 10 17
14 David Wright 100% 8 21
15 Carl Crawford 100% 12 19
16 Ian Kinsler 100% 9 19
17 Troy Tulowitzki 100% 13 21
18 Matt Holliday 100% 10 27
19 Jacoby Ellsbury 100% 15 25
20 Jimmy Rollins 100% 16 26
21 Mark Reynolds 100% 17 28
22 Jose Reyes 100% 19 27
23 Justin Upton 90% 12 30
24 Roy Halladay 90% 16 30
25 Victor Martinez 80% 22 30
26 Brandon Phillips 60% 25 30
27 Grady Sizemore 50% 20 26
28 Joey Votto 50% 18 28
29 Felix Hernandez 50% 20 29
30 Ryan Zimmerman 50% 21 29

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The Daily Dirt for Thursday

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

The Tampa Bay Rays used four home runs to defeat the Los Angeles Angels 11-1. Carlos Pena (19), Evan Longoria (14), Carl Crawford (5) and Dioner Navarro (4) all went deep for the Rays. David Price was pulled after 4 1/3 innings due to a high pitch count. Price who threw 105 pitches, allowed one run with six walks and six strikeouts. Angels starter Ervin Santana was pounded for the third time in six starts since returning from the disabled list, allowing six runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Angels announced that starter Kelvim Escobar would be moving to the bullpen after experiencing soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder. Matt Palmer will return to the rotation, starting on Friday against the San Diego Padres. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Thursday…

Hitters:

Justin Upton connected for his 12th home run of the season, drove in two runs and stole his ninth base of the year. Upton is now batting .317 with 37 RBI on the season.

Albert Pujols hit his 19th home run of the year and plated two runners. Pujols has now driven in 10 runs in his last 10 games.

Jim Thome homered for the third time in his last four games, during which time he has driven in seven runs. Thome is now hitting .258 with 12 home runs and 39 RBI on the year. Unfortunately for Thome who had just started to heat up, he will be out of the lineup the next week and a half as the Chicago White Sox go on the road to National League parks.

Curtis Granderson went 3-for-4 with two RBI, including his 14t home run of the year. It was the first home run for Granderson in the month of June.

Ian Stewart went 2-for-4 with three runs scored , while delivering his 12th home run of the season. Stewart has five home runs and 13 RBI in his last nine games, while boosting his batting average 52 points.

Ryan Braun went 3-for-5 with 3 RBI and belted his 13th home run of the season. Braun has hit three home runs in his last four games with eight RBI.

Russell Branyan went 2-for-4 with three RBI and collected his 14th home run of the season. Branyan is now hitting .317 with 29 RBI on the year.

Derek Lee hit his seventh home run of the season and is showing a little bit of life at the plate lately. He has a modest 10 game hitting streak which has raised his batting average 23 points.

Raul Ibanez hit a game-winning three-run home run in the top of the 10th inning to give the Philadelphia Phillies a 6-3 win over the New York Mets. Ibanez has now driven in 12 runs in his last nine games and is hitting .322 on the season.

David Ortiz hit his third home run in five games and has now driven in seven RBI in his last seven games. With the Red Sox going into interleague play on the road, it remains to be seen whether Ortiz will be in the lineup, with Mike Lowell or Kevin Youkilis sitting on the bench.

Pitchers:

Max Scherzer tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings with six strikeouts to pick up his third win of the season. Scherzer has not allowed a run in his last two starts covering 12 2/3 innings.

Kevin Millwood hurled 7 2/3 scoreless innings with one strikeout to notch is sixth win of the season. Millwood has not allowed a run in his last two outings totaling 14 2/3 innings of work.

Javier Vazquez struck out 12 in eight innings while allowing one run in a no decision. Vazquez momentarily took over the National League strikeout lead with 105 now on the season. He has allowed four runs in his last 20 1/3 innings but has no wins to show for it.

Ryan Dempster allowed one run in seven innings with four strikeouts in a no decision. This marks the first time since his opening day start that Dempster’s ERA has fallen below four. Dempster has allowed one earned run in his last 20 innings with 16 strikeouts.

Ricky Romero allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings with six strikeouts in a tough luck 1-0 loss. Romero did not allow a home run after allowing seven in his previous three starts.

Brad Penny turned in six scoreless innings with five strikeouts in a no decision. Despite his ERA not being that pretty, Penny has picked up the strikeout pace in his last four starts, striking out 22 in his last 23 innings.

Gavin Floyd had his fifth consecutive solid start, allowing one run in eight innings with five strikeouts, before Bobby Jenks blew his win in the ninth inning. Floyd has a 1.67 ERA in his last 37 2/3 innings with 36 strikeouts.

Closers:

Joe Beimel picked up his first save of the season for the Washington Nationals, working a scoreless ninth inning.

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Sunday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 3rd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Matt LaPorta was recalled from Triple-A by the Cleveland Indians and will get a chance to play with Travis Hafner on the disabled list. LaPorta started in right field batting eighth on Sunday and went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Sunday…

Hitters:

Carl Crawford went 4 for 4 and stole six bases, giving him 17 steals on the season in 17 attempts.

Michael Bourn is having quite a bounce back season so far compared to his disappointing 2008 year. Bourn stole two bases on Sunday to give him eight for the season and his batting average is now up to .301.

Justin Upton is starting to heat up for the Arizona Diamondbacks now that he is getting regular playing time. Upton hit his fourth home run of the season on Sunday and has now hit four home runs in his last nine games. During that stretch, he has raised his batting average 78 points.

National League only players should look to grab Fernando Tatis who has been playing in place of Carlos Delgado, out with an injured hip. Delgado was supposed to return to action on Sunday after missing five games before it was rained out. With Delgado’s injury expected to linger throughout the season, Tatis could be in line for some additional at bats.

Brandon Wood got his second start on Saturday since being recalled April 21, playing third base and batting eighth. Wood went 2 for 4, but it looks like the Los Angeles Angels are not going to commit to giving him a full season of at bats at any point in 2009. A trade would probably be the best for both parties at this time.

Kyle Blanks has started working in the outfield in Triple-A for the San Diego Padres. With Adrian Gonzalez blocking his way at first base, the Padres are looking at other alternatives to get Blanks’ bat in the lineup.

Pitchers:

Chad Billingsley moved to a perfect 5-0 after allowing two runs in seven innings with eight strikeouts. Billingsley has now allowed two runs or fewer in five of his six starts this season.

Justin Verlander allowed one run in seven innings with 11 strikeouts. He continues to dominate at home, where he has now allowed two runs in 19 innings with 28 strikeouts.

Scott Richmond picked up win number four on the year, allowing two runs in seven innings with six strikeouts. Richmond has now become an option in mixed league formats with several consecutive good outings.

Johnny Cueto hurled eight shutout innings with nine strikeouts . Part of the reason for his improvement so far in 2009 is his reduction in home runs. After allowing 29 in 174 innings last season, he has only allowed two in 32 2/3 innings this season.

Carlos Zambrano left his start in the bottom of the fifth inning with a strained hamstring after attempting to beat out a throw on a bunt. Zambrano allowed two runs in five innings before leaving the game, but still managed to notch his third win of the year.

Barry Zito tossed seven scoreless innings with four strikeouts in a no decision. Zito has now allowed three runs in his last 20 1/3 innings.

Roy Oswalt let his start early on Saturday due to a rain delay after throwing only 17 pitches. Because of the short outing, Oswalt will return to the hill against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday.

Cole Hamels is still feeling soreness in his ankle and with Sunday’s game rained out, it means his start will be pushed back to Friday.

Oliver Perez most likely made his last start for the New York Mets for awhile.  After talk of accepting a possible demotion to the minors, Perez said Sunday he has been bothered by a sore knee  and could be headed to the disabled list.

Jeff Weaver has taken over the 5th starter role for the Los Angeles Dodgers in place of James McDonald. Weaver will start on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Gio Gonzalez was recalled from Triple-A by the Oakland Athletics  but will work out of the bullpen for the time being.

Closer:

Brandon Morrow was placed on the 15-day disabled list with bicep tendinitis. David Aardsma will replace Morrow as the Seattle Mariners closer for the time being. Hopefully if you had handcuffed Aardsma to Morrow as I mentioned in several previous articles, you fantasy baseball team should be covered.

George Sherrill may have lost his job as closer for the Baltimore Orioles after blowing his second save of the season. Manager Dave Trembley said for the time being, the decision on who will close could vary from day to day. Chris Ray has still been struggling so he is not the permanent answer quite yet either. Jim Johnson could also see a save opportunity as well.

LaTroy Hawkins picked up his third save of the year for the Houston Astros. With Jose Valverde out three to five weeks, Hawkins is a good pick up for saves.

Joakim Soria returned to action this weekend with back-to-back appearances that netted a win and a save so he should be safe to activate for next week.

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