by Todd Lammi
This is the third installment of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. Notable players that I have ranked higher than their fantasy baseball ADP include Juan Pierre, Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick. Players that are ranked lower than their current ADP include Michael Bourn, Michael Cuddyer and Rajai Davis.
Just to give you some context to my rankings, I rank all players according to the players in their own position. You really have several ways you can rank players, either as a whole group and then break them out by position, which is what I use to draft the first six to eight rounds. After that point, it becomes a matter of filling out your roster by position and that’s where the rankings I have posted on the site come into play.
With that said, let’s examine the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 41-60.
41) Garrett Jones – has always shown power in the minor leagues although not to the extent he showed in 314 at bats. The batting average was a surprise as he had a .258 career minor league mark. Offers added flexibility of qualifying at first base and outfield.
42) Michael Cuddyer – power spike at age 30, with consistent splits before and after the All-Star break. I don’t see this as a new home run level though, I would forecast for the low 20′s and be happy with anything above that.
43) Ryan Ludwick – 2008 season now looks like the outlier with 2009 the new baseline. Was on pace for 30 home runs last year before power fell off in the second half. Slugged 15 home runs in 246 at bats the first half, but only hit seven long balls in 240 at bats after the break.
44) Juan Pierre – don’t understand why everyone is discounting him so much. Should see 550 at bats and steal 50+ bases. Unlike all the other high steal players in the outfield, Pierre has the best track record and the most solid batting average. Pro-rate his numbers to 520 at bats last season and it puts him at roughly 85 runs, 46 RBI and 45 steals. Some really good value here based on his current fantasy baseball ADP.
45) Chris Coghlan- solid rookie season but even better in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, hit .372 with 54 runs and seven home runs. Not a whole lot of power upside, but will score a lot of runs hitting first and will have a solid batting average. Should steal some more bases; swiped 34 in 2008 and 24 in 2007 in the minor leagues. Great batting eye, minor league walk to strikeout ratio was 154 to 147.
46) Vernon Wells – power never came back from the broken wrist that caused him to miss 50 games in 2008. Just underwent underwent surgery on his left wrist in November and is supposed to be ready to start hitting in January. Watch reports on him in spring training to see how the wrist responds and set his power projection numbers appropriately.
47) Jermaine Dye – this ranking is assuming he finds a starting job somewhere as he is currently still unsigned. Had a great first half hitting .302 with 20 home runs and 55 RBI before falling off the cliff the second half, batting a paltry .179 with only seven home runs and 26 RBI. Based on the splits, have to assume there was an injury that affected him the second half of the season.
48) Corey Hart – has not been able to improve on his numbers from 2007. Not a god sign when he is in the prime age to be having a breakout. Average and power has dropped two straight years against left-handed pitching. Couldn’t even count on him for stolen bases last year as he was successful just 65% of the time.
49) Colby Rasmus – needs to improve his plate discipline and average against left-handed pitching to take the next step up. Hit only .160 against southpaws in 106 at bats last year. First half was .278 with 46 runs, 11 home runs and 34 RBI. Second half was in the tank with a .206 average and five home runs in 204 at bats. I think the heel injury that began bothering him June affected him the second half of the season. Should be able to steal more bases as he had double digit steals every year in the minor leagues and an 81% success rate.
50) Nick Swisher – if you can handle the yearly variations in his batting average, the rest of the categories are pretty consistent year in and year out. Rebounded against left-handed pitching and his batting average came back up from 2008 level. Offers added flexibility by also qualifying at first base.
51) Cody Ross – underrated and picked after players with “the name”. If you removed all of the players names and looked at just the stats, I think a lot of owners would have him ranked higher on their fantasy baseball draft board.
52) Michael Bourn – don’t see how he has an ADP that puts him in the top 20 outfielders. Career minor league average of .285 but strikes out too much to get much higher than that in the majors. Improvement against left-handed pitching by almost 100 points helped keep his average up. In a mixed league draft, it becomes hard to own a player like Bourn for three reasons.
a. you should try to get five category players as much as possible. Especially in the first three rounds, this should be your focus. Concentrate on getting 40-50% of your stolen base goal in the first 3-4 rounds depending how many teams are in your league.
b. carrying a player like Bourn puts you at a disadvantage in home runs and RBI, putting you two categories behind other owners that are drafting a more balanced team. It also means you are relying on him for that one category and if he turns an ankle or injures a hamstring, you lose the value of his steals. A hitter than has power and steals, even if he stops running, at least you have the value of his power.
c. drafting Bourn weakens you at another position. If you take a player like Bourn in the 5th or 6th round which is what his current fantasy baseball ADP is, that means you are taking a weak hitter at another position where there is less depth. In a 23 round draft, your last few hitters taken are most likely a corner player, an outfielder or two, utility hitter and possibly a catcher. So if you planned on taking an outfielder in round 20 and say a third basemen in round 6, you might have ended up with say Aramis Ramirez and Brett Gardner who could get you 40 steals. Instead by taking Bourn that high, you end up with Bourn at OF and Edwin Encarnacion at 3B.
53) Nyjer Morgan – more batting average upside than Bourn as Morgan owns a .294 career minor league average and a .303 mark in the major leagues. Had 18 steals in 278 at bats with Pittsburgh and then ran wild after going to the Washington Nationals, stealing 24 bases in 191 at bats. His stolen base attempt rate has been one every 9.6 plate appearances in the major leagues with a 70% success rate. If we give him 600 plate appearances, then an estimate of around 45 steals sounds reasonable.
54) Rajai Davis -I have him penciled in for 450 at bats. The Oakland A’s outfield looks pretty crowded in addition to finding at bats for Jake Fox and top prospect Michael Taylor who will ready for major league action by mid-season possibly.
55) Julio Borbon – hit for average in college, in the minors and then once he got to the major leagues, .30o+ in every stop. I would expect similar numbers to Morgan, only difference is this will be Borbon’s first season as a full-time starter so there might be some growing pains.
56) Juan Rivera – pro-rate out his 2008 numbers to match 2009 at bats and the stat lines are pretty much the same. Made marked improvement against left-handed pitching, boosting his average by 100 points. Only negative is his past injury history.
57) Josh Willingham – started the year with limited at bats due to the crowded Nationals outfield. In the second half when given regular playing time, numbers returned to 2007 levels. Should be good for 500+ at bats in 2010.
58) Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle gave him a chance for full-time at bats and he responded. Power stat splits were even first half and second half of the season. After going only 5 for 10 in stolen base attempts in first half, he was a perfect 11 for 11 after the All-Star break.
59) Mike Cameron – decent power numbers late in the draft if you can afford to take the hit to your team batting average. Stolen bases fell to single digits last year. Now at age 37, will probably remain that way going forward.
60) Travis Snider – needs to improve his plate discipline and cut down on his strikeouts in order to make sure he hangs on to starting spot. Won the starting join in 2009, hit .242 and was sent back to Triple-A. Came back in August and was slightly worse, striking out in 37% of his at bats.
The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.
The Draft Guide includes the following:
- Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
- Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
- Expanded player rankings for all positions
- Ages for all players as of opening day
- Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
- The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be designate hitters / utility players.
