Nearing the end of the third week of the season and close to 50 at bats in the book, it is time to start looking to see if there are any early trends in terms or at bats or performance that could lead us to make some adjustments in terms of statistical projections for the rest of the season. While 50 at bats may seem like a small sample size and it is, we can watch the trends to see if they continue over the next few weeks to then get ahead of the other fantasy baseball owners in your league.
With that said, here is a look around the National League in order of runs scored per team to see if there are any numbers that stand out:
Cincinnati Reds: currently the highest scoring offense in all of major league baseball, the Reds have a couple of players that stand out. Jonny Gomes has all of a sudden turned into Frank Thomas at the plate, walking 14 times with only eight strikeouts, after a 39 walk to 123 strikeout season in 2010. Drew Stubbs has cut his strikeout rate four percentage points so far in 2011 which should give him a better chance to make some small gains in batting average. Jay Bruce on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction with a 10 percentage point jump in strikeouts, leaving him with 15k’s in 41 at bats and a .220 average.
Philadelphia Phillies: despite the loss of Jayson Werth to free agency and Chase Utley to injury, the Phillies are second in the National League in runs scored, thanks to six of the regulars hitting over .300. Wilson Valdez has been solid at second base and is hitting .351 with a stolen base and should be owned in all NL-only formats. Catcher Carlos Ruiz has gotten off to a good start as well hitting the same .351 with tow home runs and eight RBI.
Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki is justifying his position as a top 5 pick in fantasy baseball drafts this year, hitting .364 with seven home runs and 14 RBI. Jonathan Herrera has been the big surprise, hitting .458 with four stolen bases and eight walks against two strikeouts and is likely to start eating into Jose Lopez’s playing time.
St. Louis Cardinals: Lance Berkman has been the story in St. Louis so far with a .311 batting average and four home runs to go with 11 RBI. So far his move to the outfield has been going well, but I would still bet on an injury at some point this season. David Freese has hit when playing, batting .342 with two home runs and six RBI, but with him sitting out every third or fourth game, it makes him tough to own in mixed league formats.
Arizona Diamondbacks: only five players on the team currently have over 30 at bats this season and one of them is Willie Bloomquist who filled in nicely while Stephen Drew was out. The rest of the players like Gerardo Parra, Mevlin Mora, Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, etc. are splitting too much time to give them any value in mixed leagues.
New York Mets: David Wright seems to have made progress on his strikeouts as his rate is at 25% which gives him a much better chance to hit over .300 again. Brad Emaus (30 at bats) and Daniel Murphy (27 at bats) are still in a battle for the second base job. Murphy has a lot more value in fantasy leagues because of his multi-position eligibility.
Houston Astros: who would have guessed that the best hitter on the Astros at this point would be Angel Sanchez? Sanchez is hitting .353 with one home run, eight RBI and a stolen base. Jason Boureois has some value in deeper NL-only leagues since he does not get many at bats, but he has managed to steal four bases early on thanks to some pinch-running.
Chicago Cubs: rookie Darwin Barney has been a pleasant surprise, hitting .345 with three walks and only one strikeout in 29 at bats. Tyler Colvin has seen additional time this week with Kosuke Fukudome out with a bad hamstring;.
Milwaukee Brewers: Nyjer Morgan has been out hitting Carlos Gomez which has not been an issue yet since Corey Hart has been out of the lineup, but once he returns, someone is going to lose some playing time. Prince Fielder looks motivated as he heads toward free agency and is hitting .372 with three home runs and 15 RBI.
Florida Marlins: Logan Morrison looks to be ahead of schedule in terms of the power department with three home runs and five doubles this season to go with nine walks and nine strikeouts. Donnie Murphy has not been the answer at third base, hitting just .143 in 28 at bats.
San Francisco Giants: I wrote last season about the impact of people changing positions and what it meant to their batting stats. It is too early to tell if we are seeing that with Aubrey Huff, but he definitely doesn’t look comfortable in the outfield. There was talk of switching Huff and rookie Brandon Belt in the field, but Belt is hitting .195 and moving him to the outfield is not going to help matters. There is also the issue of Cody Ross returning to the lineup soon which will impact at bats as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp looks like a new man this season and is hitting .444 with two home runs and eight stolen bases, to go with nine walks and only seven strikeouts. Jamey Carroll is hitting .372 with two stolen bases and has more value now with Rafael Furcal out of action due to injury.
Washington Nationals: lots of young hitters struggling in Washington around the Mendoza line, including free agent signee Jayson Werth. Wilson Ramos has been one of the few guys hitting with a .455 batting average and should see more time going forward over Ivan Rodriguez.
Atlanta Braves: the lone bright spot in Atlanta on offense is that Chipper Jones is healthy and hitting with a .304 average with one home run. Rookie Freddie Freeman has struggled with a .214 average and Alex Gonzalez has returned to earth after his first half power outburst in 2010 leaving the Braves a hitter short in their quest to win the division.
San Diego Padres: Orlando Hudson has taken advantage of the Padres aggressive attitude on the base paths and already has six stolen bases, putting him well on his way to surpassing his career high of ten. Brad Hawpe has been awful so far with a .129 average and more alarming, 13 strikeouts in 31 at bats. His platoon mate Jorge Cantu has not fared much better, hitting .148 in 27 official trips to the plate.
Pittsburgh Pirates: the lone bright spot so far in Pittsburgh has been Jose Tabata with two home runs and six stolen bases to go with a .302 average. Pedro Alvarez continues to struggle making contact, hitting .196 with 16 whiffs in 46 at bats.
