Posts Tagged ‘jason heyward’

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders 21 – 40

Here is the seventh article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at outfielders ranked 21-40. There is quite a bit of speed in this grouping so if you miss out on stolen bases at another position, this is a spot where you can find them.

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball outfielders I have ranked 21-40 for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

21. Ryan Braun – assuming the 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs holds up, you are looking at a maximum of 112 games if he plays every day. Given it might take him a couple of weeks to get adjusted again to major league pitching once he is reinstated as well as dealing with the possible booing and other responses he receives at visiting ballparks, I am projecting him for 90 games worth of full stats right now.

22. Brett Gardner – value is tied to his stolen base total which could have been higher in 2011 had his walk rate and batting average both not decreased. Tailed off the second half of the season as he batting decreased month-over-month the last three months of the year. Closer to a .260 hitter than a .280 hitter unless a lot of luck is involved.

23. Chris Young – stats were pretty similar to 2010 with a few less home runs and stolen bases. Has hit over .250 only once in his career which was in 2010 so that is his maximum upside for batting average. Yes, 20-20 players are nice to own but you need several high average hitters on the rest of your team to cover for his low number.

24.  Adam Jones – hit more ground balls in 2011 but the fly balls he did hit flew over the fence at a higher rate last season. Has hit .290+ against right-handed pitching the last three seasons but has struggled more against left-handed pitching. If he could correct that, he could see a slight improvement in batting average.

25. Drew Stubbs – RBI total was lower in 2011 as he hit first in the lineup for the majority of the season. Strikeout rate remained in the 33-34% range which severely limits his batting average. Much better hitter at home where he has hit .277 in his career compared to .226 on the road. His fly ball rate was much lower in 2011 which contributed to his decrease in home runs from the previous season despite having 90 more at bats.

26. Jayson Werth – another player that struggled in the first year of a large contract with a new team. Hit .215 the first half of the season in 326 at bats and also struggled on the road all season long with a .215 average. Failed to hit left-handed pitching as well with a .184 average in 114 at bats.

27. Nick Markakis – three consecutive seasons of a declining slugging percentage does not bode well for a return to 20 home runs. Too many people are still drafting him remembering his 2008 season, but the underlying stats show he is not that player anymore.

28. Cameron Maybin - ground ball rate and home games at PETCO Park limit his home run potential for now. Hit seven of his nine home runs on the road in 2011, where he also batted .294 compared to .231 at home. Improvement in his contact rate got him on base more and gave him more opportunities to steal.

29. Andre Ethier – had a 30-game hitting streak that ended early in May and after that had issues with elbow, back and knee, the latter of which he had surgery on in September, which helped to contribute to his highest groundball rate since 2007. No reason not to expect a return to previous season levels as long as his knee is okay.

30. Michael Cuddyer - he has two things going for him in 2012, one is the move to Coors Field and secondly in leagues where 10 games is the minimum for position eligibility, he also qualifies at second base. Solid third outfielder for your fantasy team.

31. Nick Swisher  – three things you can count on in life, death, taxes and Swisher’s stats. Yes, there is not much upside like some of the younger players, but there is also a lot less volatility from year-to-year with owning him as well.

32. Ichiro Suzuki – ground ball rate was the highest of his career and with speed slowing down as he gets older, batting average follows. Infield hits fell from 64 in 2010 to 42 in 2011 which was his lowest total since 2006. With his value built around two categories, average and stolen bases, there is a lot of risk and no upside.

33. Angel Pagan – made small gains in walk rate and contact rate in 2011. With most of his value tied to his stolen bases, it is a question of how much new manager Bruce Bochy is going to let him run that will drive his value.

34. Carlos Beltran – skills have remained relatively stable in his mid-30s but the injury risk he carries affects his draft value more than anything. I have him down for 500 at bats and even that might be shooting too high.

35. Torii Hunter – age has slowly robbed him of his speed has he has went 14-for-33 on stolen bases the last two seasons. At risk for fewer at bats in 2012 due to the depth of the Angels offense and another year of wear-and-tear taking a toll on him from playing the outfield.

36. Coco Crisp – made it through 130+ games for the first time since 2007. It all depends how desperate you are for stolen bases whether you want to own him and deal with his injury issues. A declining walk rate and weak Oakland offense cuts his runs scored potential.

37. Jeff Francoeur – this was much like his 2007 season in Atlanta with a lot more stolen bases thrown in. With a higher hit rate, fly balls going over the fence more, it combined to give him a season beyond expectations. Add to the equation an aggressive manager on the bases and it made him one of the top outfielders in 2011. Don’t pay for a repeat in 2012.

38. Alex Rios – bad luck impacted batting average which in turn affected his stolen base total. Hit just .203 on the road in 295 at bats and really struggled in every month until September when he hit .307 with five home runs and 11 RBI. He is too inconsistent from year-to-year for me to ever roster him on my team.

39. Melky Cabrera – 2011 bust out season fueled by elevated hit rate and more playing time. Runs scored will drop with the move to the National League and stolen bases will likely as well with a less aggressive manager in San Francisco.

40. Jason Heyward - the one knock on Heyward in the minor leagues was that he was missed time due to injury and we have seen that in his first two major league seasons. His groundball rate still ran high in his second season at 54% so the chance for 20+ home runs is greatly diminished. Batting average last season was due to bad luck so we will discount that, but all other categories we can’t expect to be a lot better than 2010 yet.

Instead of spending money on outdated magazines written by fantasy owners with no experience of winning fantasy baseball leagues, order the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide today so you can start dominating the competition in your fantasy baseball league.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Lineup Planner – Week 9

Here is a look at the latest news and notes from around major league baseball to help you set your fantasy baseball lineup for week 9 (May 23- May 29)  of the 2011 fantasy baseball season.

American League:

Jim Thome and was activated from the disabled list by the Minnesota Twins and should return to his role as designated hitter. The Twins always activated Jason Repko from the disabled list while sending Ben Revere back to the minor leagues. Revere was hitting .207 in 29 at bats with two stolen bases and will likely not be back again until September barring another injury.

Outfielders Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz are expected to come of the disabled list on Monday for the Texas Rangers, which means Craig Gentry will likely be sent down to the minor leagues. Hamilton and Cruz both looked good on Saturday night with Hamilton hitting a line drive home run to right field and Cruz hitting a home run to center field.

Josh Outman was called up by the Oakland A’s and will get the start on Monday against the Los Angeles Angels making him a two start pitcher in week 9. Outman has not been the same pitcher since having Tommy John surgery in 2009 as he has struggled with his control. Outman had a 4.78 ERA in eight starts with 27 walks and 30 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings.

Second basemen Howie Kendrick of the Los Angeles Angels could be headed for the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Kendrick has not played since May 19th when he went 3-for-4 against the Seattle Mariners.

Shortstop Reid Brignac will miss the next four games for the Tampa Bay Rays on bereavement leave paving the way for Elliott Johnson to get some more playing time. He could be a sneaky middle infield place this week if you are short a player at that position.

Second basemen Brian Roberts does not look like he is ready to return from his concussion to the Baltimore Orioles just yet so Robert Andino will continue to fill in for him.

Starting pitcher Alex White of the Cleveland Indians will miss two to three months with a strained ligament in his finger. Mitch Talbot will take his place in the rotation when he comes off the disabled list. Talbot had two rehab starts for a total of nine innings in Triple-A as he works to come back from a strained elbow.

National League:

The Philadelphia Phillies activated Chase Utley from the disabled list so be sure to have him active for the upcoming week. Utley hit .281 while on rehab with a home run, four RBI and a stolen base. The best news was he seemed to have no problems with his knee so he looks good to go for now.

Jason Heyward was finally placed on the disabled list by the Atlanta Braves with a sore shoulder. Joe Mather takes over in right field for Heyward an is an option in NL-only formats if you need at bats for the next two weeks. Mather is hitting .400 in 30 at bats this year with a home run and six RBI.

The Los Angeles Dodgers swapped infielders on the disabled list with Rafael Furcal returning to action and Juan Uribe going on the disabled list with a strained hip flexor. The move will keep Jamey Carroll in the starting lineup for another few weeks. Furcal went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts in his return to the lineup on Sunday.

Tim Hudson of the Braves will miss his start on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to a sore back with Mike Minor taking his start. Minor had struggled his last two outings in Triple-A allowing seven runs in 13 innings.

The Chicago Cubs placed outfielder Marlon Byrd on the disabled list after Byrd suffered facial fractures when he was hit in the head by a pitch on Saturday. Reed Johnson will fill in for Byrd in the outfield. Johnson is hitting .392 in 51 at bats this season with two home runs and 15 RBI.

The release of Russell Branyan earlier in the week by the Arizona Diamondbacks gives Juan Miranda a lot more value making him worth a look in deeper mixed formats. Miranda had four RBI in his previous two games and hit a home run on Sunday.

If you are looking for a second catcher in NL-only or mixed leagues, it looks like Ronny Paulino will be seeing more time behind the dish for the New York Mets with Josh Thole struggling behind the plate. Paulino is hitting .313 in 32 at bats while Thole is batting .205 in 112 at bats.

To help set your pitching rotation for next week, check out the week 9, two start pitchers.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders

Here is the sixth article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. A lot of time there are several outfielders that are ranked close and there could just be a point or two difference depending on what kind of ranking system you are using so then it all comes down to a matter of preference.

For example, I have Matt Holliday (4) and Josh Hamilton (5) with pretty close scored but given Hamilton’s injury, if I were at the draft table, I would take Holliday and the rankings reflect that.

Just a reminder that if you are looking for more player capsules and stat projections, the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide will be released on February 1 so be sure to check back for that.

1. Ryan Braun – hard to quibble with a .300 batting average, 100 RBI ever year and double digit stolen bases. Jump in ground ball rate the last two years has caused home runs to drop. Until he gets that turned around, 35 – 40 home runs is out of the question.

2. Carl Crawford – every few years seems to flirt with 20 home runs but not quite reach it. Hit .300 for the 5th time in his career and has stolen at least 46 bases every season except 2008 when he was injured. Has a .275 career average in Fenway Park with four home runs and 33 RBI in 320 at bats.

3. Carlos Gonzalez – how locked in at home was he? Batted .380 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI with an 18% strikeout rate. On the road, he hit 8 home runs with 41 RBI and a 28% strikeout rate. Despite being a young player with upside, there has to be a little correction coming in 2011.

4. Matt Holliday – hit .300 for the 6th season in a row and drove in 100 runs for the second straight year. Only blip was his stolen bases fell under double digits. Look for more of the same in 2011.

5. Josh Hamilton – had 100 at bats less than 2008 and still posted a similar stat line. Batting average was inflated will head down in 2011. Only concerns with owning him is the injury risk.

6. Matt Kemp – strikeout rate jumped to 28% and he was a mess on the base paths, going 19-for-34. Numbers dropped off in the second half with a .233 average and only four stolen bases. 2011 is a new season with a new coach so no reason now to expect some bounce back.

7. Shin-Soo Choo – numbers from 2009 and 2010 were very very close. It is going to be hard for him to crack 25+ home runs with his current ground ball rate where it is at. Still, a 20-20 outfielder with a .300 average is a good get in early rounds.

8. Nelson Cruz – Injuries have held him under 470 at bats the last two seasons. Massive difference when he hits at home, hit .371 / .267 home vs. road in 2010 and .286 / .232 in 2009.

9. Andrew McCutchen – made some nice small gains in his second season, slighlt raising walks and cutting strikeouts. Ended the season on a high note hiting .326 in September with 4 home runs, 15 RBI and 17 walks against 9 strikeouts.

10. Justin Upton – missed all of Septmeber with a shoulder injury but it had to be bothering him longer than that looking at his numbers after the All-Star break with just three home runs in 167 at bats. Of bigger concern in 2011 is his strikeout rate which jumped to 31% last year. With Adam LaRoche and Mark Reynolds both gone, lots of RBI to be had in the middle of the lineup.

11. Alex Rios – seemed more comfortable in Chicago for a full season and his numbers were in line with his 2008 year in Toronto. Was huge in the first half of the year where he hit .305 with 15 home runs and stole 23 bases vs. 258 in the second half with 6 long balls and 11 steals.

12. Jacoby Ellsbruy – rib injuries knocked him out of action for almost all of 2010. Still remains to be seen if he hits leadoff this season with all of the changes to the Boston lineup. This ranking is based on his remaining in the top spot.

13. Jayson Werth – expect the average to come back down after a little bit of luck in 2010. Will miss Citizens Bank Park where he hit .293 with 52 home runs in 901 at bats.

14. Jason Heyward - hit with more power before the All-Star break but had a better batting average the second half of the year. Impressive walk to strikeout ration in his rookie season at 91 vs. 128. Needs to hit more fly balls to give him a chance for more home runs as right now a long of the long balls are line drive shots.

15. Andre Ethier – problems hitting left-handed pitching keeps his average from reaching .300. Suffered injury in May which cost him at bats and then power in June as he hit only one home run in 105 at bats.

16. Ichiro Suzuki – despite his advancing age, keeps himself in some great shape that his career low in at bats has been 639 in 10 seasons. Scored under 100 runs for the second year in a row thanks to a weak Seattle offense. Contact rate and speed has dropped the last two years slightly so stealing 40 bases again is going to be harder.

17. Hunter Pence – has been pretty consistent with stats bunched tightly together. Home runs have been 25 for three straight seasons. Stolen bases rose for the second straight year. Expect more of the same in 2011.

18. Curtis Granderson – was on track for a repeat season of 2009 until injuries struck. Liked his new home stadium where he hit four more home runs and batting 30 points higher. His rising strikeout rate though keeps his batting average in check. Hit 17 home runs in 241 at bats after the break.

19. B.J. Upton - there was a lot going on for B.J. behind the numbers in 2010. On the plus side, walk rate went up. On the down side, strike out rate has risen for the second straight year to 31% now. Batting average against right-handed pitchers has fallen for three straight years to not sit at .218.

20. Shane Victorino – hit a career high 18 home runs aided by 12 from the lead off spot when he was filling in for Jimmy Rollins. After the All-Star break he came back to earth, hitting four home runs with 21 RBI in 235 at bats. Batting avergae dropped against right-handed pitching for the second straight year.

2011 Fantasy Baseball – NFBC ADP

If you are searching for more 2011 fantasy baseball ADP information, here is a look at some data from the NFBC for their slow drafts they have been conducting from the middle of December through last week. Again, I tend to give this data a little more credence since this is a high stakes event and the skill level of the fantasy baseball owner that you are competing against is likely higher than any other league that you play in.

This data is from nine fantasy baseball drafts and shows the first six rounds. With 15 picks per round, there are a total of 90 players selected during that time. Of the total drafts, there were 113 different players selected so there are a few players at the fringe that some owners are undecided on. Here is a look at the current first round for 2011 fantasy baseball adp.

1. Albert Pujols – no surprise, he was first in all nine drafts.
2. Miguel Cabrera – just edges out Hanley, going second six of nine times.
3. Hanley Ramirez – went as low as 6th in one draft.
4. Troy Tulowitzki – lots of people seem to be looking at the numbers he put up in the last month.
5. Carlos Gonzalez – as high as three, as low as nine.
6. Carl Crawford – high of four, low of 11.
7. Joey Votto – makes him the 3rd first basemen in the first round.
8. Ryan Braun – went as high as six in one draft.
9. Evan Longoria – has over taken A-Rod as the top 3B.
10. Robinson Cano – a little more power and he jumps up two to three rounds.
11. Adrian Gonzalez – fantasy baseball owners looking for big things from him now in Boston.
12. Alex Rodriguez – went as high as 10, as low as 16.
13. David Wright – went higher than A-Rod in two drafts.
14. Roy Halladay – as high as 8 and as low as 20.
15. Josh Hamilton – as high as 11, as low as 19.

As many people that say the draft is won in the later rounds, it is also won in the first round as well. If you look at the final ADP (average draft position) for the last few years and then check their final fantasy baseball rankings, you will see that half of the times the players picked in the first round don’t end up their in terms of value. While I would not call these players busts because they still put up good stats, there ends up being better players that should have been selected.

If I had to pick five players from the list that will not be in the to p15 at the end of the season, I would probably say:

1. Robinson Cano – doesn’t steal bases and if he hits 17 home runs and .300 then he is not in the first round.
2. Troy Tulowitzki – too streaky.
3. Josh Hamilton – injury prone
4. Carlos Gonzalez – could go 25-20 and not finish in the first round for value.
5. Alex Rodriguez – age, drop in batting average and lack of steals

Again, these are not players to avoid or not take in the first round, but if I had to choose who will not be a first round pick in terms of value by the end of the year, those are my choices.

Other interesting data to be gleaned from the ADP so far. Young players are high up on the board this year. Everybody is looking for that guy that is going to break out and be this year’s Carlos Gonzalez. At some point however, players are getting drafted too high that they have to have a incredible year in order to justify their spot. Here is a look at where some of the young guns are going.

Buster Posey (35) – ahead of Brian McCann

Jason Heyward (41) – some injury risk with him a little too high at this point

Mike Stanton (65) – early in the 5th round, he better hit a ton of home runs for people to be picking him here.

Carlos Santana (80) – early in 6th round

It looks like middle infielders have taken a step back from 2010 as the good majority of them look to be going lower in 2011. Ian Kinsler (33), Jimmy Rollins (40), Brandon Phillips (42), Derek Jeter (67).

Other players of note:

Jose Bautista (51) – high of 34, low of 60

Pedro Alvarez – drafted in four of nine drafts, went: 62, 89, 89, 90

Mark Reynolds – drafted in six of nine drafts, high of 55

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball projections, be sure to grab your copy of the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

2010 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfield

Here is a look at my 2010 final fantasy baseball rankings for the position of outfield. Several players are included in the list that did not start the year in the outfield, based either on games played or where I expect them to play in 2011.

1. Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo broke out in a big way in 2010 with over 100 runs and RBI, 34 home runs and 26 stolen bases. Used Coors Field to his benefit where he hit .380 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI vs. 8 and 41 on the road. Will likely be picked in the top half of the first round in 2011 fantasy baseball drafts.

2. Josh Hamilton - put up numbers close to his 2008 campaign despite missing close to 30 games due to injury. Don’t expect his .359 batting average going forward, but the rest of the numbers should be consistent barring injury.

3. Carl Crawford - heading into free agency on a high note after scoring 100 runs for the first time since 2005. His 19 home runs were a career high and he hit over .300 for the 5th time in his career.

4. Matt Holliday - similar stat line to Hamilton except with a lower batting average. Has shown that he can hit away from Coors Field and should have several more seasons in the same stat range.

5. Ryan Braun - walks slightly up, strikeouts slightly down, but then so is the power. Home runs have gone from 37 to 32 to 25 in 2010. Managed to hit 45 double so he barely broke the .500 mark for slugging percentage. Performed much better when hitting third in the order than when he hit clean up.

6. Vladimir Guerrero – still getting it done at age 35 with a full season of at bats. A a solid hitter that fits in nicely for the Texas lineup, although he only qualifies in the outfield in leagues where the minimum is under 20 games. Hit nine home runs after the All-Star break with 40 RBI in 69 games.

7. Jayson Werth – another outfielder headed for free agency that will likely cause a bidding war. Batting average was up 28 points while he lost seven steals from the previous year. Scored 100 runs for the first time in his career.

8. Alex Rios – the free agency gamble the Chicago White Sox took at the end of 2009 looks pretty smart now after the season from Rios this year. Set career highs in RBI (88) and stolen bases (34), although numbers dropped off overall the second half of the season.

9. Corey Hart – it was a career year for Hart in 2010 with 31 home runs, 102 RBI and 91 runs scored. Stolen bases have dropped the last two years, mainly due to his lack of success when stealing. Power dropped way off the second half of the season, until he bounced back with 8 of his 10 home runs in September.

10. Shin-Soo Choo – missed three weeks due to injury but still matched his numbers from 2009. His year-to-year consistency will likely keep him drafted ahead of some of the other outfielders close to him here in the rankings.

11. Hunter Pence – three straight seasons of 25 home runs and slight increases in stolen bases the last two years make him one to own. If you watch him at the plate, it does not look like he would ever put up the type of numbers he does but once the year is over, the stats are all in place.

12. Chris Young – it was the year of the bounce back in outfielder in 2010 and Young was no exception. Did most of his damage at home where he his 20 of his 27 home runs, while hitting .283 vs. 230 on the road. His overall batting average of .257 was a career high by 9 points.

13. Delmon Young – after showing little power his first few years in the major leagues, he kicked it up a notch in 201, clubbing 46 doubles and 21 home runs. Was much better on the road with 15 of his 21 home runs and all five of his stolen bases.

14. Nick Swisher – power numbers were no surprise, but the batting average was. Took less walks, swung at more pitches and the result was a career high .288 batting average.

15. Juan Pierre – set a career high in stolen bases at age 33 with 68 and just missed out on scoring 100 runs. Only downside was his .275 batting average which I had expected to be a little bit higher.

16. Andrew McCutchen – showed nice improvement in 2010, now just needs to add a few more home runs. I expect many fantasy baseball owners to target him as the guy that makes a Carlos Gonzalez type jump next season so his draft position will likely be approaching round 2 or 3 by the time the season starts.

17. Vernon Wells - really, who in Toronto did not have a breakout year in home runs last season? His 31 home runs were the most since 2006 and he enjoyed hitting them at home, where he hit 20 vs. 11 on the road. Showed a big split in his batting average as well, going .321 at Rogers Centre and .227 away from home.

18. Drew Stubbs – strikes out a little too much for the type of hitter he is which impacts his batting average. Hit much better when batting seventh in the line up, plus his low on base percentage does not make it really conducive for him to be at the top of the order. Finished September on a high note with seven home runs and a .311 batting average.

19. Angel Pagan – took advantage of injuries in the New York Mets outfield to post 11 home runs, 69 RBI and 37 steals. No reason not to expect more of the same in 2011 now with a permanent spot in the lineup.

20. Ichiro Suzuki - pretty sad that a lead off hitter with a 350+ on base percentage only scores 74 runs, just tells you how bad the Seattle Mariners offense was this year. Ichiro stole 42 bases and played in all 162 games for the third time in his career.

21. Nelson Cruz
22. Torii Hunter
23. Matt Kemp
24. Shane Victorino
25. Brett Gardner
26. Bobby Abreu
27. Andre Ethier
28. Colby Rasmus
29. Jay Bruce
30. B.J. Upton
31. Andres Torres
32. Austin Jackson
33. Jason Heyward
34. Rajai Davis
35. Adam Jones
36. Justin Upton
37. Marlon Byrd
38. Nick Markakis
39. Jonny Gomes
40. Scott Podsednik

The Daily Dirt from Monday

Roy Halladay was on top of his game in his first start in the National League, allowing one run in seven innings with nine strikeouts to pick up his first win with the Philadelphia Phillies. To me, he is the odds on favorite to win the National League Cy Young award and could easily win 20 games this season. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Monday…

Hitters:

Placido Polanco delivered a grand slam for his new club and hit second in the batting order. That pushed Shane Victorino down to seventh in the line up which means Victorino will see a drop in runs scored this season.

Albert Pujols had some injury issues in spring training but once the lights came on for real, he delivered in his usual stellar fashion going 4-for-5 with two home runs.

Colby Rasmus went 2-for-4 with his first home run of the season hitting 5th for the St. Louis Cardinals. There is a great chance he hits over 20 home runs in his second go round in the major leagues.

Wonder how many people are kicking themselves today for passing on David Wright at the end of the first round? Wright delivered an opposite field home run at home in the New York Mets 7-1 win over the Florida Marlins.

Garrett Jones delivered two home runs with three runs scored and three RBI and catcher Ryan Doumit added a three-run shot as the Pittsburgh Pirates hammered the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-5.

Comeback kids Alex Rios of the Chicago White Sox and Vernon Wells of the Toronto Blue Jays both went yard on opening day.

Carlos Gomez went 4-for-5 with his first home run of the year and a stolen base in the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies.

Jim Edmonds got the start for the Brewers in right field over Corey Hart and went 1-for-4.

The opening day line up for the Atlanta Braves was pretty impressive as they beat up the Chicago Cubs 16-5. Rookie Jason Heyward went 2-for-5 with four RBI and homered in his first at bat of the game. Shortstop Yunel Escobar added five RBI. Nate McLouth was dropped to 8th in the batting order with Melky Cabrera moved up to lead off.

Second basemen Chris Getz went 2-for-4 with a stolen base for the Kansas City Royals. If you are looking for stolen bases and he is on the waiver wire still, go and grab him.

Kyle Blanks hit his first home run of the season for the San Diego Padres hitting clean up. If there is a player that comes out of no where to hit 30 home runs this season, Blanks would be the person to do it.

Pitchers:

Opening day starter Vicente Padilla for the Dodgers? That did not work out so well. Padilla was shelled for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings with two strikeouts.

Mark Buehrle had an easy day at the office against the Cleveland Indians, working seven scoreless innings with three strikeouts.

Shaun Marcum carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning, but finished the game with a no-decision after allowing a three-run home run to Nelson Cruz. Marcum struck out six in seven innings of work.

Carlos Zambrano allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 innings leaving him with a 54 ERA after his first start of the season. Zambrano surrendered two home runs, six hits and also hit a batter.

Zack Greinke allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts but was denied a win after the bullpen coughed up the lead.

News of Tim Lincecum’s loss of velocity in spring training did not appear to be evident Monday night as he hurled seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. He was hitting 94 on the gun, but what sets him apart from other pitchers is his ability to throw his change up at any time or any count and get hitters out.

Ben Sheets was hitting 94 on the gun for the Oakland A’s but had trouble locating his fastball and curveball in the strike zone. As a result, he only made it through five innings before hitting 94 pitches. He allowed four hits and four walks with three strikeouts.

Closers:

Jason Frasor of the Blue Jays failed to deliver in his first save opportunity of the season, allowing five baserunners in 1/3 of an inning as he took the loss.

Franklin Morales converted his first save try filling in for the injured Huston Street for the Rockies.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

With the last week of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, here is a look at some of the players with changes to their average draft position (ADP), based on a 15 team mixed league.

Rising:

Jose Reyes (round 1-4) – it all depends on your league and your level of risk but I saw him being drafted from the end of the first round until the middle of the fourth round in various drafts this past weekend.

Mike Napoli (round 8-9) – Napoli’s power outburst in spring training has him going ahead of some catchers strictly based on his spring training stats which is a mistake.

Jason Heyward (round 10) – the announcement that Heyward has won the starting job for the Atlanta Braves has pushed him up to the 10th round in recent drafts.

Chris Perez (round 13) – the injury to Kerry Wood opened the door for Perez as the Indians closer. There is no reason to expect Wood to return as the closer when he returns unless Perez falters in the role. With Wood a free agent at the end of this season unless he hits 55 games finished in 2010, the most likely scenario in which he closes is if he is traded to another team.

Sean Rodriguez (round 16) – remember that he only qualifies at outfield to begin the season so don’t wait until the late rounds of the draft thinking you are going to grab him at second base. His strikeout rate from his previous stints in the major leagues is still some cause for concern going forward.

Speed / Power combo outfielders – I think there was a lot of surprise this past weekend in drafts as speed / power combo outfielders were taken much higher than their average draft position. Guys like Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, etc. were all going a round or two higher. If you are targeting those types of hitters in drafts this weekend, you might need to bump them up your draft board.

Falling:

Brian Roberts (round 4) – injury concerns of his back and a possible drop in stolen bases has dropped him a round in drafts.

Lance Berkman (round 8) – injury concerns plus the possibility of him starting the season on the disabled list has dropped his average draft position by three to four rounds.

Huston Street (round 13) – another injured player that dropped four rounds based on the uncertainty of his status.

Carlos Beltran (round 13-15) – it still looks like he will be back around the end of April / early part of May assuming he does not have any setbacks. Expect a decrease in stolen bases when he does return.

2010 Atlanta Braves Team Preview

This is the second part our series of 2010 fantasy baseball team previews looking at the National League East. The team previews will include the projected batting order, projected rotation, rookies that could make an impact in 2010 as well as each players current ADP for a 15 team mixed fantasy baseball league.

2010 Atlanta Braves Projected Batting Order:

1.  CF Nate McLouth (ADP 82)
2.  2B Martin Prado  (ADP 208)
3.  3B Chipper Jones (ADP 128)
4.  1B Troy Glaus (ADP 261)
5.  C Brian McCann (ADP 42)
6.  SS Yunel Escobar (ADP 149)
7.  RF Jason Heyward (ADP 244)
8.  LF Melky Cabrera (ADP 307)

2010 Atlanta Braves Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  Tim Hudson (ADP 211)
2.  Derek Lowe (ADP 334)
3.  Jair Jurrjens (ADP 138)
4.  Tommy Hanson (ADP 85)
5.  Kenshin Kawakami (ADP 388)

Closer – Billy Wagner (ADP 142)
Handcuff – Takashi Saito

2010 Atlanta Braves prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Jason Heyward – RF


Auction Keeper League – How to Rebuild

If you are new to fantasy baseball auction leagues or have been playing in an auction league for a few years but have not had much success winning, this article will take you on a step-by-step guide of how to rebuild in an auction league format.

The majority of keeper auction leagues have contract limits which means you are likely going to be able to be competitive for a certain amount of years before you have to rebuild. Some owners think they can draft every year and have a shot at winning, but that is not the case. In an auction league with keepers, there is too much inflation to prices to be able to draft a team and make a run at the title unless you get extremely lucky, it is a shallow league and the rest of the owners are not very good.

Your best chance at rebuilding is by doing it from day one of the season. That way you can focus on which rookies you want to target in the draft as well get first dibs on the best keepers in trade from other owners. If you wait until June before deciding to throw in the towel and rebuild for next year, you are already behind the other rebuilding teams. At that point, you are rebuilding for two years away instead of being competitive the following season.

Heading into the auction there are two types of players you are trying to draft. Players that will help your team next year and form your core and the second group are players that you can trade to bring back in return younger players and draft picks.

Here is a look at my team from a NL only auction league from last season. This is a 14 team league with a $275 salary cap plus a six round reserve draft where the draft picks can be traded.  I went into the draft knowing I wanted to rebuild from day one.

My keepers:

  • Ryan Doumit – 11
  • John Baker – 10
  • Rickie Weeks – 25
  • Cameron Maybin – 16
  • Tim Lincecum – 22
  • Chad Qualls – 6

Out of this group, the only players I wanted to keep for this year were Lincecum, Qualls and Doumit; the other players were traded.

Drafted:

  • Edgar Renteria – 13
  • Matt Kemp – 36
  • Jake Peavy – 31
  • Aaron Cook – 13
  • Ricky Nolasco – 26

This entire group were players I wanted to trade. While Kemp was at a good price, there are always outfielders in the $30 range I knew I could grab in 2010.

Core: these were the main players I targeted to form the cornerstone of my team for the next few years:

  • Alcides Escobar – 2
  • Carlos Gonzalez – 3
  • Jonny Gomes – 3 (did not plan on him being a core guy but at $3 for 15-20 home runs makes him a core guy)
  • Jason Heyward – 1
  • Pedro Alvarez – 7
  • J.A. Happ – 2 — I was able to get him as a relief pitcher due to our rules based on a certain number of appearances as a starter / reliever.
  • Tim Hudson – 3 — injured players are a great place to look for keepers when you are rebuilding. If you are in an NL only league this season and are rebuilding, you should be targeting guys like Edison Volquez and Jordan Zimmermann.
  • Stephen Strasburg – 5

Farm System:

Before the auction I had several other players I did not want to keep going into the draft so I flipped those for draft picks, so instead of the usual six picks per team, I went into the draft with close to 20 picks to search for players that would be able to have an impact for me in 2010. As from my previous articles, I am always looking for players that have the best chance of helping me the following year so I am targeting guys that are in Triple-A or in Double-A with a shot to get to the major leagues based on the guys ahead of them at their position. Here is who I got:

  • Drew Stubbs – 5
  • Chris Coghlan – 5
  • Everth Cabrera – 10 – his salary was higher because he started the year in the major leagues
  • Gerardo Parra – 5
  • Bud Norris – 5
  • Aroldis Chapman – 10 – picked up September 1 when rosters expanded. Again, it pays to know and understand the rules of your league. In my league in September we can add three slots so I look for guys that may be coming over from Japan or were drafted in the June draft and could make a direct leap to the major leagues.

Picked up in trade:

  • Bronson Arroyo – 8
  • Omar Infante – 3
  • Eric Young Jr. – 5

In addition I have 23 out of the 84 draft picks in the reserve round. Six of my own picks plus 17 I picked up in trade, including three additional first round and second round picks.

So overall my team looks something like this heading into 2010:

  • C – Doumit – 11
  • C – open
  • 1b – open
  • 2b – Infante 3 / E. Young 5
  • ss – A. Escobar 2, E. Cabrera 10
  • 3b – open
  • of – C. Gonzalez 3, Gomes 3, Stubbs 5, Coghlan 5, Parra 5,
  • utility – Heyward 1, P. Alvarez 7
  • sp – Lincecum 22, Arroyo 8, Norris 5, Strasburg 5, Happ 2, Hudson 3, Chapman 10
  • rp – Qualls 6

You can see from the roster layout that there are several trade opportunities I will have to improve the team by moving a shortstop, outfielder and starting pitcher.

With the additional draft picks I will also be able to use those to trade for guys from other teams that will be rebuilding this season.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rookies

As I have wrote in several previous articles, when drafting rookies in fantasy baseball, I am always looking for the player that has the best chance of producing for me this season, unless it is a dynasty league.

In a one year league or a league with keepers, but not the entire roster, it does no good to roster a guy like Josh Vitters in Single-A when you could use that roster spot for a guy that is going to help you in 2010.

When evaluating rookies, I am looking at two things. One is the players skill set and the other is the chance for an opportunity.

Here is a look at the top 2010 fantasy baseball rookies (for the purposes of this article, I am using my definition of a rookie as a player that did not appear in the major leagues last year) that have the best chance of making an impact in 2010.

1) Jason Heyward (OF) – has shown the ability to do everything at the minor league level despite being only 20 years old last year. Has a very good eye at the plate and owns a .318 minor league batting average along with a 84% stolen base success rate. Has the frame to hit 30+ home runs as he gets older. With Bobby Cox in his last year as Atlanta Braves and the willingness of the Braves to promote prospects through the system regardless of age leads me to believe that Heyward starts the season in the major leagues.

2) Stephen Strasburg (SP) – the No. 1 pick out of San Diego State appeared in the Arizona Fall League and went 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA. He struck out 23 batters while allowing seven walks in 19 innings. There is no one better than him currently in the Washington Nationals rotation and the fact the Nationals are having him pitch in home games only in spring training to draw fans (they are already working on marketing him) leads me to believe  he starts the year in the major leagues.

3) Austin Jackson – expected to start the season in center field and hit lead off for the Detroit Tigers. Minor league batting average of .287 with a 78% stolen base success rate. Needs to cut down on his strikeouts and power is still developing so keep expectations realistic for him in 2010.

4) Desmond Jennings (OF) - has a .305 career batting average with good plate discipline. Has a career stolen base success rate of 82%. With two potential openings in Tampa Bay in place of Pat Burrell or Matt Joyce, Jennings should be up for good in May and could post numbers similar to Carl Crawford.

5) Drew Storen (RP) – it was a rapid rise up the ladder for Storen in 2009. After being drafted in the first round by the Washington Nationals, he pitched at three levels and ended the year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League. Had a 1.95 ERA with a .78 WHIP ratio with 49 strikeouts in 37 innings in the minor leagues. He followed that up with a .66 ERA in the AFL with 13 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. He is the future closer of the Nationals and could see some save opportunities late in the season.

6) Aroldis Chapman (SP) – Cuban left-hander that has a slight chance to break camp with the Cincinnati Reds. Reportedly needs some work on his command but has looked good throwing to hitters so far. Of course that is entirely different from facing an entire batting order in game conditions. The Reds only have one spot in their rotation up for grabs, so he is in the mix with several other contenders.

7) Pedro Alvarez (1B/3B) – not a bad first season with 27 home runs and 95 RBI while split between two levels. Nice to see improvement in his batting average after being promoted to Double-A where he hit .333 compared to .247 in High-A. Should be up in June after spending a couple of months in Triple-A.

8.) Michael Taylor (OF) – the trade to the Oakland A’s in the off-season gives him a faster track at making it to the major leagues. Hit 20 home runs with 85 RBI and 21 stolen bases between two levels in 2010. The lack of power in the A’s outfield should put Taylor in the major leagues by mid-season.

9) Carlos Santana (C) – switch-hitting catcher with power and plate discipline. Hit 23 home runs in Double-A last season with 97 RBI. Has a career minor league batting average of .287 with more walks than strikeouts (288 vs. 283). Will start the season in Triple-A and should be ready to take over as full-time catcher for the Cleveland Indians the second half of the season.

10) Jeremy Hellickson (SP) – could probably step into the Tampa Bay rotation now with some success but there is no room with five solid starters currently in the rotation. Dominated between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.45 ERA and a .886 WHIP ratio. Had a 10.4 K/9 ratio while allowing only 2.3 walks per nine.

11) Chris Carter (1B) – power potential on a team lacking in power makes him a player to target for 2010. Finished the season with 54 at bats in Triple-A for the Oakland A’s. Crushed Double-A pitching to the tune of a .337 average with 24 home runs, 101 RBI and 41 doubles. With the Daric Barton era on its last legs, Carter should see time the second half of the year.

12) Justin Smoak (1B) – struggled at Triple-A after being promoted at the end of the 2009 season. The 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Smoak has made a rapid rise up the Texas Rangers farm system. Gives the Rangers an option at first base if Chris Davis struggles and is unable to cut down his strikeouts.

13) Brett Wallace (1B) – could have won a spot in the major leagues with the Oakland A’s to start the year, but the trade to the Toronto Blue Jays means he likely starts the year in the minor leagues. Career .305 minor league hitter that should be a 20 home run per year type of guy once he gets to the Show. Probably won’t see action until after the trade deadline assuming the Blue Jays can move Lyle Overbay.

14) Logan Morrison (1B) – suffered a fracture in his right wrist in 2009 which limited his at bats to 278. Has great plate discipline as he walked 17 more times than he struck out. Power still needs to develop, but with the budget conscious Marlins, he has a chance to open the year at first base. Could put up similar stats to James Loney of 2009.

15) Jake Arrieta (SP) – another good arm in the Baltimore Orioles farm system that made it to Triple-A the second half of last year.  Was easier to hit once he got there, posting a 3.93 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP with 7.7 K/9. Numbers were much better in Double-A before the promotion with a 2.59 ERA, 1.153 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Look for Arrieta to appear in the Orioles rotation the second half of the season.

16) Hector Rondon (SP) – the Indians rotation is a mess so it’s not like he has a bunch of stud pitchers to pass on the depth chart. Split time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Has shown good control in the minor leagues with 1.9 walks per nine innings and eight strikeouts per nine. Even if he starts the year in Triple-A for more seasoning, he should not be down there too long. Just turned 22 this week.

17) Ike Davis (1B) – the 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft made it to Double-A last year where he hit .309 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI in 207 at bats. With Daniel Murphy and Mike Jacobs the New York Mets option at first base, it could be only a matter of time before Davis gets a look.

18) Jason Castro (C) – only has Humberto Quintero in front of him and the Astros need all of the offense they can get. Reached Double-A last season and it would be quite jump for him to reach the major leagues. However, holds a .295 career minor league batting average with good plate discipline (77 walks to 108 strikeouts). Struggled in the Arizona Fall League hitting .143 in 42 at bats.

Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Wednesday

by Todd Lammi

If you are an Atlanta Braves fan, today has provided quite a swing of emotion. Three events happened which all somewhat coincided with each other depending on who’s version of the story you want to believe to shuffle the Atlanta roster. The first move was the Braves fleecing the Pittsburgh Pirates out of Nate McLouth for three prospects, none of whom were named, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Jason Heyward or Freddie Freeman. Even with the addition of McLouth who takes the spot of Jordan Schafer who was recently demoted, the Braves are still short a bat in their line up. At only $2 million, the Braves take on very little salary by adding McLouth this season.

The next move the Braves made frees up salary, by surprisingly releasing Tom Glavine who was due to return from the minor leagues on rehab assignment very shortly. The release of Glavine saves the Braves $3.5 million in salary, in addition to creating a roster spot for top prospect Tommy Hanson who was called up from Triple-A. Hanson will move into the Braves rotation Saturday and get the start against the Milwaukee Brewers. Kris Medlen gets a pat on the back for striking out nine in his six innings in his last start and a trip to the bullpen.

For the Pirates, the trade of McLouth opens up center field for Andrew McCutchen who should see the majority of starts for the rest of the season. McCutchen was hitting .303 with four home runs, 20 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 201 at bats in Triple-A.

If you are a fan on minor league players or have some on your team, these last two weeks have to feel like Christmas with Matt Wieters getting called up and then Hanson and McCutchen getting called up today. If that was not special enough, late Wednesday night it was announced that Gordon Beckham has been recalled by the Chicago White Sox.  If the White Sox are calling him up after just a week in Triple-A, it stands to reason he is going to be in the starting line up somewhere in the infield. Beckham was hitting .464 in Triple-A with three RBI and one steal in seven games. Between two levels on the season, he was at .326 with four home runs and 25 RBI. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Wednesday night…

Hitters:

Ben Zorbist, wow, where did all the power come from?  Zorbist should be a permanent fixture in the Tampa Bay Rays line up going forward, and is rewarding fantasy baseball owners, by connecting for home runs on consecutive days. Zorbist is currently on pace for a .300 average with 33 home runs, 105 RBI and 16 steals.

Nice to see Elvis Andrus finally turning on the jets a little bit, as he stole two bases and went 2 for 3 at the plate. With stolen bases in consecutive games, he is now on pace for 30 thefts on the season.

Jorge Posada homered for the second straight and has been on a nice roll since returning from the disabled list on May 29th with three home runs in six games with six RBI.

Bobby Abreu went 2 for 5 with 4 RBI including his second home run of the season. After being on a stolen base tear for the first month and a half of the season, Abreu has not stolen a base since May 19th.

Dan Uggla homered for the second consecutive day and is now up to 11 home runs with 39 RBI. His batting average is s-l-o-w-l-y creeping up t0 .219 after being around the Mendoza line for much of the season.

Hunter Pence went 4 for 5 with 3 RBI and slugged his sixth home run of the season. The home run Wednesday night matched Pence’s home run total for the entire month of May.

Ryan Howard hit home run number 16 and knocked in two runs giving him  45 RBI on the season. He has now driven in a run in five consecutive game, totaling 11 plated runners.

Laynce Nix hit two home runs and drove in four, giving him seven RBI in June which matches his total for the entire month of May. He should continue to get the majoirty of at bats against right-handed pitching.

Brandon Phillips went 3 for 5 with 3 RBI and two stolen bases and has homered three times in his last five games.

Scott Hairston was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained biceps. Will Venable was recalled from Triple-A and should see time along with Tony Gwynn Jr.

Asdrubal Cabrera was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained left shoulder and is expected to be out 2-4 weeks. Jamey Carroll should see time at third base with Jhonny Peralta moving over to shortstop. Carroll went 2 for 6 batting second on Wednesday. Peralta, back at his old position of shortstop went 3 for 5 with 3 RBI, including his second long ball of the year.

Pitchers:

Possibly there is light at the end of the tunnel for Jeff Niemann who tossed a complete game shutout with nine strikeouts to earn his fifth win of the season and lower his ERA to 3.77. Niemann has allowed two runs in his last 18 innings with 18 strikeouts and has seen his overall ERA decrease in his last five outings.

Jered Weaver hurled seven innings of one run ball with 10 strikeouts to improve his record to 5-2 on the year.  He has now allowed one run in five of his six last starts, although he only has two wins in those outings due to a lack of run support.

Ted Lilly allowed one run in seven innings with seven strikeouts in a no decision against the Atlanta Braves. He cost himself a win with a throwing error that caused an unearned run to score.

Josh Beckett tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings with nine strikeouts to up his record to 6-2 on the year.  He has allowed two runs or less in his last four starts while shaving two full runs off of his ERA.

Scott Feldman allowed two runs in 6 1/3 innings with five strikeouts to improve to a perfect 5-0 on the season. As a starter this season, remember that he had three relief appearances that threw his ERA out of whack, Feldman had an ERA of 2.59 heading into the game.

Josh Outman moved to 3-0, after allowing two runs in 6 2/3 innings with two strikeouts. Check out the top 2o in pitching for May, he ranked high in several statistics.

Cliff Lee allowed one run in eight innings with five strikeouts to notch his third victory of the year. Despite his 3-6 record, Lee has a 2.96 ERA as the Indians have been shut out or scored one run in six of his starts this year.

J.A. Happ tossed seven shutout innings with four strikeouts to earn his fourth win of the season and second in three starts.

Chad Billingsley hurled six shutout innings with nine strikeouts to up his mrk to 7-3 on the year. His numbers would be even more impressive if he managed to reduce his walks, after walking four or more batters in 5 of his last 7 starts.

Closers:

Jose Valverde is expected to go on a short rehab assignment next week and if all goes well is on track to return from the disabled list around June 12th.

Joakim Soria returned to action, facing two batters and throwing 13 pitches. I would still hold on to Juan Cruz for another week or two if you need saves, just in case.

Fantasy Baseball – Minor League Report

by Todd Lammi

Each week we will take a look at the top happenings in minor league baseball from a fantasy baseball perspective. Here is a recap of some of the top minor league players in action in week one.

David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays made his minor league debut Saturday, allowing two runs on four hits in 3 2/3 innings, while limited to a 75 pitch count.

Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals in his first AAA start gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Tommy Hanson of the Atlanta Braves struck out 10 in 4 1/3 shutout innings on Thursday. Hanson allowed three hits and two walks will throwing 84 pitches.

Neftali Feliz made his AAA debut for the Texas Rangers and overcame some wildness to pitch four shutout innings, allowing four hits and six walks.

Third basemen Brett Wallace (AA) of the St. Louis Cardinals hit two home runs and drove in six runs on Thursday.

Catcher Carlos Santana (AA) of the Cleveland Indians homered and drove in four runs on Thursday.

Seattle Mariners prospect Carlos Triunfel in AA suffered a broken left fibula while sliding into second base on Friday. Preliminary estimates are that he could miss six to eight weeks of action.

Florida Marlins first baseman Logan Morrison (AA) suffered a small fracture at the base of his right thumb and is expected to miss six to eight weeks.

For those of you looking at long term minor league keepers, check out the article at Baseball America that talks about two of the top young outfielders in the game in Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves and Mike Stanton of the Florida Marlins.

Baseball America also has their list of where the top 100 prospects are starting out in 2009. You can access the list here. If you live in the San Jose, CA area, be sure to swing by one of the San Jose Giants games. That team boasts several of the top prospects in all of minor league baseball in pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson,  catcher Buster Posey and first basemen Angel Villalona. Also keep an eye on third basemen Conor Gillaspie who saw time in the major leagues last year, and second basemen Nick Noonan.

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