Posts Tagged ‘fantasy league’

2009 Fantasy Baseball – Winning a keeper league

by Todd Lammi

Do you care if you win your fantasy baseball keeper league? It seems like a simple question but the answer seems to be a little more complex for some people who play fantasy baseball.

Let’s assume a few parameters and you will see what I mean. The assumptions are as follows: it is a keeper league (the number of keepers does not matter), the league will redraft every 5 years and there is an entry fee to play of over $100.

Now you might say, a $100 or more does not matter to me as an entry fee, I am paying that money for the joy of playing fantasy baseball for six months and that is a cheaper form of entertainment than anything else I could do for that same time period. To which I say, that is probably true, however, if that is your mindset, you are better off playing fantasy leagues at Yahoo or some other free service where there is no entry fee involved then.

Most owners, will buy a magazine or several magazines, sign up for newsletters / projections / draft software, etc. so in addition to the entry fee you are paying, tack on another $50-$100 in draft materials / seasonal information. On top of that, factor in the time that you will spend playing fantasy baseball. Wading through all of the information over the internet, watching Baseball Tonight or watching games on ESPN, add on another 10 hours per week of your time spent on fantasy baseball. Taking that 10 hours per week times an average of $20 per hour (or insert whatever $ amount you think your time is worth) times 30 weeks of the fantasy baseball season equals $6,000. I know, I know, this is not actual money coming out of your pocket, but my point is regardless of the entry fee, there is a cost (investment) associated with playing fantasy baseball, and like any investment in stocks, or certificates of deposit or even a savings account, you should want to see a return on that investment, either in the form of a check or trophy or both.

So with that out of the way, let’s examine the difference between a keeper league and a one year or annual league. Mmmm, there really is no difference. The categories are the same, the rules are the same, the only thing that changes between the two in most cases is the mindset of the owner. Okay, stop, go back and re-read that last sentence again, because it is important to think about.  The one thing I have noticed most in the years I have been playing fantasy baseball keeper leagues when determining the difference between the people who win leagues and the ones who don’t is the mindset of the owner.

For example, we just had a trade deadline in one of my basketball leagues recently. I offered another owner who is bunched together with five other owners in a tight race three players for LeBron James. These were three solid players who would have most likely given him the title and the cash prize. His response when he rejected the offer was, I can’t do the trade, it gives me too many keepers for next season. Wow! I can’t say that I was shocked, because I have heard a similar type answer in different sports, in different fantasy leagues  every year I play, but it still baffles me that when an owner has a great chance to win the league, they pass on it, in order to protect their keepers for the following season.

There are no guarantees for next year in a keeper league. Improvements of players, declines in performances, injuries, and changes in players roles all make it hard to assume that because your team is in the top three one year it will be in the top three the following year.   My advice is when the opportunity presents itself, go for the win every time.

If you have only played keeper leagues in the past, it is a good idea to try a one year league to get yourself in a different mindset when it comes to trading and waiver pickups. This will help you strike a good balance then in your keeper league for still keeping young talent, while at the same time playing to win your league.

Bill Simmons of EPSN had a great line in one of his recent articles regarding the Portland Trailblazers, saying “Portland seems content to be just a Promising Young Team With a Huge Internet Following for the next 12 years.” Don’t let this happen to your fantasy baseball team. It might be nice, to have the best collection of young talent, but if you have no league titles attached to your name, it doesn’t really matter, especially since your team will be broken up in a few years anyway for the redraft.

2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Finally the month of March has come. That means fantasy baseball drafts are right around the corner. Now that spring training is officially underway, lets take a look at some the player’s whose average draft position are rising and falling the last two weeks, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Rising:

Brett Gardner – Gardner has been on the rise with talk out of New York that he has a chance to possibly be the Yankees opening day center fielder and lead off hitter. Gardner has the potential to steal 40 bases with a full-time job and his current ADP of 374 puts him the 24-26 round range depending if you have 14 or 15 teams in your league. He is also a good target for AL-only leagues where steals are at a premium.

Dana Eveland – no real news on Eveland so far in spring. People could be picking up on his first half numbers of 3.49 e.r.a and 1.4 whip ratio with 74 strikeouts as his true numbers before he bombed in the second half and was sent to Triple-A in August for a short time. ADP has increased 120 spots in the last two weeks.

Daniel Murphy – his ADP jump of 99 spots has to be driven by New York Mets fans. He might be part of a platoon with Fernando Tatis in the outfield. His minor league numbers suggest the potential for a decent .280-.300 batting average with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 rbi’s.

Miguel Batista – currently the leader in a three arm race with Mark Lowe and Roy Corcoran to be the Seattle Mariner’s closer. His numbers in relief last season were not any better than when he was a starter. APD has risen 90 spots, putting him in the 25th round range. If he  enter the season as the closer, he might be good for 10-15 saves before he loses the job.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman is currently battling for the 5th starter spot with the Chicago Cubs. With multiple bullpen options already with Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Chad Gaudin and possibly Jeff Samardzija, it makes sense to see if Heilman can bolster the rotation. ADP has jumped 76 spots in the last two weeks.

Falling:

Ben Sheets - was close to signing a contract with the Texas Rangers last month before they discovered he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. The surgery is expected to sideline him until after the All-Star break. Not worth drafting unless you play in a dynasty / ultimate league. ADP has fallen 139 spots.

Braden Looper - recently signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, Looper will miss the next 1-2 weeks with an oblique strain and could start the season on the disabled list. ADP has dropped 62 spots the last two weeks.

Jeremy Bonderman - recently underwent an MRI on his right shoulder, his availability for the start of the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation is still in question. ADP has declined 22 spots.

Josh Fields - Fields, the potential starting third basemen for the Chicago White Sox will have to battle Wilson Betemit and recently signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo for the position. Fields has lost some of his luster as a prospect from a few years ago as he is now 26 and put up disappointing numbers in Triple-A last season. His ADP has slid 21 spots.

Mike Fontenot – Fontenot appeared slated to be the starting second basemen for the Chicago Cubs until the Cubs signed Aaron Miles to a two year contract. They could end up in a platoon role with Fontenot getting the majority of at bats as the left-handed hitter. Fontenot’s ADP has fallen 26 spots the last two weeks.

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