Posts Tagged ‘Fantasy Baseball Rankings’

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitchers 21 – 40

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 4th, 2012

Here is the tenth article in the series of our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the next 20 starting pitchers. In this group you will find several starting pitchers coming off of injury from last season. While they have performed well in past season, many of them will be on an innings restriction in 2012 which will keep them from reaching their full value like they would in a normal season.

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball starting pitchers I have ranked for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections are available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

21. Stephen Strasburg – there is a limit to his upside as he will likely face an innings limit in his comeback from Tommy John surgery like Jordan Zimmermann did last season.

22. Mat Latos - struggled the first half of the season before turning it around after the All-Star break with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The move from PETCO Park to Cincinnati should elevate his ERA a little bit.

23. Michael Pineda – should get a couple more wins in New York while ERA and WHIP will be slightly impacted from the move away from SAFECO Field where he had a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP compared to 4.40 and 1.17 on the road.

24.  Ricky Romero – continues to dominate right-handed hitters which led to a .216 overall batting average against. Lower than normal hit rate and great bullpen support pushed his ERA under 3.00 so expect that to rise in 2012. Numbers slid in the second half of the season for the second year in a row. In his career, ERA is 3.29 and WHIP is 1.27 the first half and 3.95 and 1.33 the second half of the season.

25. Josh Beckett – while 2010 was to one extreme for his hit rate and lack of bullpen support, 2011 was all the way to the other extreme as both of those numbers over corrected. Expect something closer to his 2009 season in 2012.

26. Matt Moore – should be among the league leaders in strikeouts despite being on an innings limit. Struck out 12.7 batter per nine innings over his minor league career. Only concern is his walk rate which was 3.1 in nine starts at AAA.

27. Gio Gonzalez – boosted his strikeout rate and it should go even higher this season with the move to the National League. Walk rate of 4.1 per nine innings is still an issue that needs to be ironed out to take the next step.

28. Brandon Beachy – will carry a higher than usual ERA from time-to-time based on his skills because he is a fly ball pitcher and is prone to variances from season-to-season. Strikeout rate of 10.7 per nine innings is going to be hard to repeat in his second season.

29. Matt Garza – big jump in strikeout rate with the move to the National League. Also saw a nice increase in his ground ball rate which gained 10 percentage points from 2010 which helped to keep his ERA low.

30. Tommy Hanson – last pitched on August 6th and was then shut down for the season with shoulder issues. Not a good sign when the team is expecting him to be healthy for the start of 2012 but they are still not 100% certain.

31. Josh Johnson – still has only one season of 200 or more innings pitched after making through only 60 1/3 innings in 2011 before shoulder issues forced him to the sidelines. Not worth the risk given his injury history regardless of how good his stuff is.

32. Adam Wainwright – coming back from Tommy John surgery, it may take him half of a season to find the groove so keep expectations realistic.

33. Yu Darvish – the best Japanese starting pitcher comes to Texas at the age of 25. In 2010, he had a 1.78 ERA with 2.1 walks and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Pitched 200+ innings in four of the last five seasons so durability should not be a concern.

34. Jordan Zimmermann – first season back from Tommy John surgery and he came back with improved control and he picked up his strikeout rate the second half of the season. Only downside is if the team limits his innings any in his second season after surgery.

35. Chris Carpenter – turns 37 in April and is coming off a second straight season of a falling ground ball rate and a rising batting average against. Too many good young pitchers out there to take the risk on drafting him.

36. Jeremy Hellickson – it looked like a solid rookie season, but his strikeout rate of 5.6 was far off from his 9.8 per nine innings in the minor leagues. His ratios were also helped out by a 23% hit rate this is going to correct as well as great support from his bullpen. Expect higher ratios, but a few more strikeouts in 2012.

37. Shaun Marcum – one of the few pitchers who has not seen an increase in his strikeout rate with the move to the National League. Seemed to fade down the stretch after striking out 8.1 hitters per nine innings the first half of the season, it fell to 5.8 after the All-Star break. Ended the season at a low point with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in September.

38. Cory Luebke – so far in 157 major league innings, he has been outpitching his minor league numbers in every category and without the benefit of PETCO Park as his numbers have been better on the road. Posted a 3.76 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP after the All-Star break in 14 starts.

39. Colby Lewis – fly ball pitchers are always at risk for balls flying over the fence at a higher rate from season-to-season which is what happened to Lewis in 2011.On a positive note, he did cut his walk rate and for the second straight season, he gave right-handed hitters fits.

40. Anibal Sanchez – took a big step forward in 2011 with a second year in a row of good health, a slight decrease in his walk rate and his strikeout rate went from 7.2 per nine innings to 9.3. Just needs to get a little more run support now to boost his win total.

Instead of spending money on outdated magazines written by fantasy owners with no experience of winning fantasy baseball leagues, order the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide today so you can start dominating the competition in your fantasy baseball league.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 8th, 2012

This is the first series of our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of catcher. Some of the notable names from the list you will not see include Jesus Montero from the New York Yankees and Devin Mesoraco from the Cincinnati Reds. While most fantasy players consider Montero a catcher, he only played three games there in 2011 so unless your league has very liberal position requirements, he is likely only going to qualify at the utility spot in 2012 to start the year. For Mesoraco, while he is one of the top catching prospects in baseball, Ryan Hanigan is in the picture and manager Dusty Baker has not been known to have a long leash when it comes to playing rookies. If Mesoraco struggles out of the gate in spring training, he could be looking at a time share in 2011 so for now I have him pegged for roughly 300 at bats though that could change as we hear more news in spring training.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball catchers for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections are available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Victor Martinez – the move to designated hitter on a more permanent basis should keep his offensive numbers afloat for another year or two. He failed to homer in 26 games when catching last season and batted .340 when in the lineup as a designated hitter.

2. Carlos Santana – he had no trouble hitting southpaws in 2011, batting .318 against them. His average against right-handed pitching was a meager .201 and that should go up a good amount in 2012.

3. Buster Posey – a broken left leg cut short his 2011 campaign, but in 162 at bats he showed his numbers from 2010 were no fluke. He figures to hit in the middle of the lineup again and with his average upside, he slightly nudges ahead of Brian McCann and Mike Napoli.

4. Brian McCann – has hit 20+ home runs in four straight seasons and holds a .286 career batting average. Runs scored have dropped the last couple of seasons with in a weaker Braves offense. As solid as they come at the catcher position.

5. Mike Napoli – Napoli was on fire the second half of 2011, hitting .383 with 18 home runs in 214 at bats. He also showed improved plate discipline with a career high 58 walks. He has a slight downside risk if the Texas Rangers decide to make a splash and sign Prince Fielder.

6. Matt Wieters – power finally came around and he showed improvement throughout the season, hitting 14 home runs in 224 at bats after the All-Star Break and he also improved his walk rate.

7. Joe Mauer – while Mauer is expected to be healthy in 2012 after suffering injuries to his leg and knee last season, his power numbers from 2009 are a definite outlier and he failed to hit a home run at home in 2011 in 157 at bats.

8. Miguel Montero – Montero bounced back from his injury shortened 2010 season and his numbers were right where they were in 2009. He delivered when batting cleanup, hitting .297 with six home runs and 28 RBI in 155 at bats.

9. Alex Avila – Avila was the biggest fantasy surprise at catcher in 2011. One thing to consider is that he skipped Triple-A so in essence he has been learning on the job in the major leagues and did show power when playing at the University of Alabama so while he may not hit 19 home runs again this season, he does have some pop in his bat.

10. J.P. Arencibia – his batting average held up the first two months of the season at over .255 but then it quickly dropped off as he batted .215 after the first half. Power is not in question, it is just a matter of if he can cut down on his strikeouts to give his average a chance.

11. Jonathan Lucroy – wore down the second half of the season which masked some of his potential. If he can put together his 2011 first half over the course of a full season, he is going return a nice profit.

12. Miguel Olivo – set a career high with 477 at bats and put up solid mid-tier catcher numbers outside of his .224 batting average. Always seem to get drafted later than he should which makes him a solid second catcher for leagues that require two of them.

13. Kurt Suzuki – batting average has dropped for three straight seasons and there are few runners to drive in hitting in the Oakland lineup. He has not been able to replicate his 2009 numbers the last two years.

14. Geovany Soto – he had 99 more at bats in 2011 but yet could not improve on any of his numbers and his batting average plummeted as he lost his strike zone discipline from 2010. His 421 at bats was only the second time he was over 400 at bats in a season in his career.

15. Yadier Molina – set career highs in four of five offensive categories in 2011. His .465 slugging percentage was the first time it was over .400 for his career. I am not banking on double digit home runs again but he is solid in all five categories.

16. Wilson Ramos – acquired by the Nationals in a deal for Matt Capps in 2010, Ramos spent all of2011 in the major leagues and flashed good power. He has some work to do on his batting average on the road where he hit .222 in 207 at bats.

17. Russell Martin – belted out 18 home runs in 2010, but batting average fell for the fourth consecutive season and he stole just one base the second half of the year.

18. Chris Ianetta – owns a career .208 batting average away from Coors Field and has struggled more against right-handed pitching making the chance of a breakout year very, very slim.

19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – his average would get a nice boost if the Red Sox sat him against left-handed pitching which he has hit just .207 against in his career.

20. John Buck – his 2010 batting average was way too high and last season’s average was a large drop but it should not have been that big of a surprise. He was okay at home with a .243 batting average but struggled on the road, hitting just .213.

Instead of spending money on outdated magazines written by fantasy owners with no experience of winning fantasy baseball leagues, order the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide today so you can start dominating the competition in your fantasy baseball league.

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2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 30th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for closers. I used the criteria of a minimum of 10 saves as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings.

1. Craig Kimbrel - head and shoulders above all other closers from a fantasy baseball perspective, striking out 127 in 77 innings and posting 46 saves. The heavy workload seemed to catch up to him by the end of the season as he converted 5-of-8 saves in September with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

2. John Axford - gets bonus points for his mustache as well as for converting 46-of-48 save chances while posting a 1.95 ERA. Was dominant the second half of the season with a 0.84 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP while converting all 23 save chances.

3. Mariano Rivera - at 41-years-old he is still going strong, posting another 40+ save season with another year of an ERA under two and a WHIP under one. Converted all 23 save chances at home with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP.

4. J.J. Putz – his numbers were pretty much in line with his 2010 season except he posted 45 saves back in the closer role. If you owned him, be thankful he held up for most of the year. He had a minuscule 0.36 ERA on the road and a 0.69 WHIP.

5. Jose Valverde – led the league in saves, going a perfect 49-for-49 but ranked 5th at closer mostly due to his higher WHIP ratio. His innings pitched total was a career high and it was the third time in his career he collected 40+ saves.

6. Drew Storen – struggled in spring training but was lights out once the regular season started. Averaged more than a strikeout per inning after the All-Star Break with 40 k’s in 29 innings. Had a more difficult time in day games where he had a 3.96 ERA and 1.20 vs. night games where he was at 2.15 and 0.93.

7. Joel Hanrahan – came into the season with 20 career saves in four seasons and posted 40 saves for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After being homer prone early in his career, he only allowed one long ball in 68 2/3 innings in 2011.

8. Jonathan Papelbon -  save total went down for a third straight season but it was due to opportunity and not performance. His control rebounded from the past two seasons and his 87 strikeouts were a career high.

9. Heath Bell – notched 40+ saves for the third straight season. Only negative was the drop in his strikeout rate as he fanned less than a batter an inning.

10. Fernando Salas – he did on start the season as closer or end the year as closer, but still managed to rank 10th based on his performance in the middle part of the season. Was better at Busch Stadium where he had a 1.80 ERA and 0.69 WHIP compared to 2.79 and 1.18 on the road.

11. Francisco Cordero – despite his lack of strikeouts, he finished the season strong, converting 20-of-21 save chances the second half of the season. Had a 1.34 ERA at home and a 3.50 ERA on the road.

12. Brandon League - David Aardsma’s injury opened the door at closer and League took advantage, converting 37 of 42 saves. Loved pitching at SAFECO Field, putting up a 1.27 ERA and 0.79 ERA versus 4.85 and 1.46 on the road.

13. Ryan Madson – got a chance to be the full-time closer for most of the season for the first time in his career, which was good timing for him as he now heads into free agency. Put up an ERA of 1.64 at home vs. 3.25 on the road.

14. Sergio Santos – good strikeout numbers, but a combination of walks and home runs hiked up his ERA. Really struggled at U.S. Cellular Field with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

15. Kyle Farnsworth – posted a career year at age 35 in the closer role for the first time. His ERA and WHIP were the lowest they had been since 2005.

16. Neftali Feliz – less strikeouts and more walks in 2011 which is a bad combination for a pitcher in any type of role. Was better the second half of the year with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.

17. Jordan Walden – a solid rookie campaign with five wins and 32 saves. His ratios are going to run higher than the top tier closers until he gets his control straightened out.

18. Carlos Marmol – blew 10 saves as control continues to be his nemesis. Ratios were good the first half of the year and then he struggled after the All-Star Break with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

19. Chris Perez - strikeout rate fell off and he had problems pitching on the road, going 0-3 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

20. Juan Oviedo - formerly known as Leo Nunez, Oviedo posted a second straight season of 30 saves, but was susceptible to the long ball once again which propelled his ERA over four.

 

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2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 10th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at third base. I used the criteria of 350 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. There were a lot of under performers this season as several of the top players at the position missed time due to injury such as Alex Rodriquez, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman.

1. Jose Bautista – outperformed expectations again in 2011, hitting 43 home runs, driving in 103 and batting .302. He also walked 132 times to give him a .447 on base percentage. Was on fire the first half of the year with a .334 average and 31 home runs in 299 at bats.

2. Adrian Beltre – put up roughly the same numbers as he did in 2010 with the Boston Red Sox and did it in 102 less at bats. His batting average dropped as expected, but his 32 home runs were the most he hit since 2004. Loved hitting Rangers Ballpark where he hit .326 with 23 home runs compared to .271 and nine home runs on the road.

3. Michael Young – home runs dropped by almost 50% but he offset that by driving in over 100 runs for the second time in his career and by hitting a career high .338. Like Beltre, he benefited from his home park where he hit 10 of his 11 home runs and batted 31 points higher.

4. Mark Reynolds – bounced back to his 2009 level with a few less home runs and RBI due to less at bats. Struggled hitting at Citizens Bank Park with a .238 average compared to .297 on the road.

5. Aramis Ramirez – after two injury prone seasons, Ramirez was finally healthy in 2011. He got his batting average back up over .300 and hit 26 home runs with 93 RBI. For the fifth straight season, he hit much better at Wrigley Field, batting 50 points higher than he did on the road.

6. Evan Longoria – missed 25+ games and still managed to hit over 30 home runs and drive in 99, but a 50 point drop in batting average and a lack of stolen bases caused him to drop in the final rankings. Hit 20 home runs after the All-Star Break in 261 at bats with 57 RBI.

7. Kevin Youkilis – for the third straight season he missed 20 or more games due to injury. His .258 batting average was a career low since hitting .260 in his first season in the major leagues back in 2004. Hit .320 at Fenway Park compared to just .191 on the road.

8. Pablo Sandoval – lost a good amount of weight in the off-season and his batting average came back over .300 at .315. Missed 40 games or so due to injury and still managed to hit out 23 home runs with 70 RBI. Hit 15 home runs with 41 RBI in 231 at bats after the All-Star Break.

9. Edwin Encarnacion – did most of his damage the second half of the season, hitting .291 with 11 home runs, 36 RBI and seven stolen bases in 234 at bats. Will qualify at first base and third base in 2012.

10. Alex Rodriguez – missed one third of the season, otherwise his numbers were on pace for previous seasons except for home runs which were headed for the 22-25 range. Returned to action and hit just .191 after the All-Star Break in 68 at bats.

11. David Wright – just like A-Rod, missed 1/3 of the season and power numbers were off as well from his 2010 pace. Hit only .239 at home with five home runs in 51 games.

12. Chipper Jones - numbers were close to his 2009 season when he last had 455 at bats. Still has slight value in mixed league formats as long as you have a capable backup for the days / weeks when he misses time due to injury.

13. Danny Valencia – numbers were in line with 2010 if you had pro-rated his stats except for the batting average fell off a cliff. Right-handed pitching ate him up in 2011 as he hit only .224 in 415 at bats.

14. Martin Prado – like many other third basemen on the list, battled injuries in 2011 as his stats suffered across the board. His .260 batting average was the lowest of his career and his runs scored took a hit thanks to an anemic Atlanta Braves offense.

15. Ty Wigginton – picked up more at bats that the Colorado Rockies were expecting as he took over at third base for Ian Stewart. His eight stolen bases were the most for him since 2003.

16. Ryan Zimmerman – see A-Rod / D. Wright. Missed 1/3 of the season, power was down, but at least he supplied some batting average.

17. Scott Sizemore – provided the Oakland A’s with some offense but doesn’t do much for fantasy league owners unless it is an AL-only format.

18. Casey McGehee – unlike most of the guys ranked above him, he doesn’t have an injury to blame for his lack of performance. Average went from .285 in 2010 to a meager .223 this past season.  Showed a little more power after the All-Star Break but his average never broke .280 any month of the season.

19. Chase Headley- what little value he has is tied up in his double digit stolen bases. Bumped his average up to .289 which helped him make the top 20 rankings.

20. Maicer Izturis - more of an AL-only player, but offers nice versatility by qualifying at second base and at third base plus shortstop in leagues were 10-15 games is the minimum.

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2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 9th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at shortstop. I used the criteria of 350 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. Missing from the list that you might normally see due to their lack of at bats were players like Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Stephen Drew and rookie Dee Gordon.

1. Troy Tulowitzki – knocked in 100+ runs for the first time in his career and batted over .300 for the second season in a row to put him atop the fantasy baseball shortstop rankings. For the third season in a row he was much better the second half of the year, hitting .356 with 13 home runs in 205 at bats.

2. Asdrubal Cabrera – hit 25 home runs surpassed his career total of 18 coming into the season through 387 games. His power was pretty consistent from month-to-month, hitting 5,5,3,4,4,4, home runs. Went 12-for-13 on stolen base attempts the first part of the year before finishing 5-for-9 after the All-Star Break.

3. Jose Reyes – won the National League batting title with his .337 batting average which was the third time he hit .300 in a season. Has missed 25-30 games each of the last two seasons so don’t expect a return to his 2008 numbers when doing your fantasy baseball projections for 2012.

4. Jimmy Rollins – bounced back to his 2009 level with a few less home runs and RBI due to less at bats. Struggled hitting at Citizens Bank Park with a .238 average compared to .297 on the road.

5. Starlin Castro – powered up the second half of the season hitting eight home runs in 293 at bats versus two home runs in 381 at bats the first half of the year. Hit .307 both halves of the season, but stolen base success rate dropped after the All-Star break as he was successful on only 12 of 20 attempts.

6. Elvis Andrus – pretty much in line with 2010 except he went from zero to five home runs. Needs to improve his success rate on the base paths to crack the 40 steal mark. Was 11-for-20 on stolen base attempts the second part of the year.

7. J.J. Hardy – set a career high in home runs with 30 and tied his career high in RBI with 80 he had set in 2007. After struggling in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Hardy was finally healthy this season and the results bore that out.

8. Johnny Peralta – another shortstop who had a bounce back season in the power department as he hit more than 20 home runs for the first time since 2008. His .299 batting average was a career high, seven points higher than when he hit .292 in 2005.

9. Erick Aybar – stolen bases went up second straight year as a full-time starter and he doubled his home run output from 2010 going from five to 10. His lack of runs scored and fluctuation in his batting average keeps him out of the second tier of shortstops.

10. Emilio Bonifacio – the biggest fantasy baseball surprise at shortstop in 2011 as injuries around the diamond for the Florida Marlins allowed Bonifacio to chalk up 565 at bats. His .296 average best his season high of .261 set the previous season. Qualifies at shortstop, third base and in the outfield in 2012.

11. Alexei Ramirez – you pretty much know what you are going to get from Ramirez has his numbers have been clustered in tight range from season-to-season. The only drop for him this season was going from 13 to seven stolen bases and a 13 point drop in batting average.

12. Derek Jeter - home runs dropped for the second straight season, though if you remove his 2009 season when he hit 18 home runs which looks to be an outlier, his home run total has really been slowly trending down since 2005. Hit .327 after the All-Star break to boost up his value a little bit.

13. Ian Desmond – didn’t really take a step forward in 2011 except for in stolen bases which went from 17 to 25, but he also had an additional 59 at bats. Until he is able to improve his plate discipline, the batting average ,s always going to sit in the .25o to .260 range.

14. Yunel Escobar – put his brutal first half of 2010 in Atlanta behind him and 2011 looked close to 2009 with 28 less RBI because he hit first in the order with Toronto com,pared to 2009 when he hit second, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

15. Alcides Esocbar – value is strictly in stolen bases at this point in his career as he went from 10 steals in 2010 to 26 this past season. Was much better on the road where he hit all four of his home runs and batted .275 vs. 231 at home.

16. Cliff Pennington – hit a couple of more home runs and drove in a few more runners, but stolen bases were sliced in half which was his main source of value in mixed league formats. Hit .303 the second half of the season after hitting .235 before the All-Star break.

17. Yuniesky Betancourt – numbers were pretty much identical to what he did with the Kansas City Royals in 2010 with a few less runs scored and RBI with the move to the National League.

18. Marco Scutaro – career high batting average of .299 helped him make the top 20 cut despite having only 395 at bats. Managed two drive in only two less runs that he did in 2010 despite having 237 less at bats.

19. Alex Gonzalez – power came back to earth after hitting 23 home runs in 2010. Nothing more than an injury fill-in in mixed league formats.

20. Jason Bartlett - stolen bases came back as he ran more, but power was non-existent with two home runs in 554 at bats. Hit .224 at PETCO Park and .265 on the road.

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2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 5th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at second base. I used the criteria of 350 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. The list dropped off pretty quickly after the top 15 as players like Ryan Raburn and Gordon Beckham could not even crack the top 20.

1. Ian Kinsler – his .319 batting average from 2008 looks like a major outlier as he has not hit higher than .286 since that time. Finished 2011 with numbers pretty close to 2009 with a few more runs scored thanks to a stacked Rangers offense. Ended the year  on fire with 11 home runs and eight stolen bases while hitting .330 in September.

2. Dustin Pedroia – it was a banner year for Pedroia as he set career highs in home runs, RBI and stolen bases while hitting over .300 for the third time in his career. Pedroia crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .358 average with seven home runs in 179 at bats.

3. Robinson Cano – he scored 100+ runs for the third straight season and knocked in 118 runs while adding eight stolen bases. His career batting average now stands at .308.

4. Ben Zobrist – bounced back from his disappointing 2010 season as he fell a stolen base short of the 20-20 club. Really struggled with his batting average at home, hitting .221 vs. .31 on the road.

5. Brandon Phillips – hit .300 for the first time in his career and his RBI were up from 2010 with more time spent hitting fourth in the batting order. Managed only four home runs on the road in 327 at bats.

6. Ryan Roberts – the biggest surprise of the season at second base as he posted 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 482 at bats. Hit .274 in his minor league career so don’t expect much upside to his batting average in 2011.

7. Howie Kendrick – amazingly has now put together two healthy seasons in a row and posted a career high with 86 runs scored and 18 home runs. Hit 123 home runs on the road where he it .299 vs. 270 at home.

8. Dan Uggla – the power numbers were there by the end of the season but the batting average never fully recovered from the hole he dug himself into the first half of the year. Uggla hit 21 home runs while hitting .296 after the All-Star break in 260 at bats.

9. Danny Espinosa – turned in a solid rookie campaign but really struggled the second half of the season, hitting .227 with five home runs and a paltry 14 RBI in 247 at bats. Hit .256 at Nationals Park and .216 on the road.

10. Neil Walker – had 170 more at bats in 2011 but could not make any increase to his home run total from the previous season. Added nine stolen bases which gave him a slight boost in value.

11. Kelly Johnson – never quite got untracked at the plate, hitting .209 for the Arizona Diamondbacks before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays where he hit .270 in 33 games. Expect a season in 2012 between the numbers from the last two seasons.

12. Rickie Weeks - missed time with an injury again which cut his stats by one third. Hit .293 at Miller Park and .249 on the road.

13. Aaron Hill – the  21 stolen bases came out of nowhere as he entered the season with only 23 for his career. That was the only saving grace to his season after managing only eight home runs, which was a far cry from the 26 he hit in 2010. Hit .315 with the Diamondbacks in 124 at bats with just two home runs.

14. Jemile Weeks – a nice rookie campaign with a .303 batting average in 406 at bats to go with 22 stolen bases. Hit both of his home runs in September while batting .323 for the month.

15. Chase Utley – turns 33 in December and has played less than 120 games the last two seasons. Had only 27 less at bats from 2010 but numbers were significantly down outside of stolen bases.

16. Orlando Hudson – batting average fell for the third straight season, but his value was saved by his career high 19 stolen bases, nine of which came in April.

17. Daniel Murphy – value driven by his .320 bating average as his season ended early due to injury at 391 at bats. Will qualify at first base, second base and third base in 2012.

18. Robert Andino – filled in for the injured Brian Roberts and contributed 13 stolen bases, but his value his more in AL-only leagues than in mixed formats.

19. Mark Ellis – performed much better after going to Colorado where he hit .274 in 263 at bats with six home run and stole seven bases. Will be looking for a new home in 2012 as a free agent.

20. Darwin Barney - hit .306 the first half of the season and then came back down to earth after the All-Star break, batting .238 in 235 at bats.

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2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 4th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at first base. I used the criteria of 400 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. The top four players I had ranked within percentage points of each other so depending on what type of ranking system you use, the order could be flipped around many different ways.

1. Albert Pujols – failed to hit over .300 for the first time in his career although .299 is as close as you can get. Also failed to drive in 100 runs for the first time in a season as well, although he fell just one RBI short of that mark. The big question mark will be which team he is playing for in 2012 though that should not have any impact on his fantasy baseball performance.

2. Prince Fielder – bounced back to his 2009 level just in time for free agency in the winter. He walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, but he is going to miss hitting at Miller Park where he batted .326 this season and hit 24 of his 38 home runs.

3. Miguel Cabrera -scored more than 100 runs for the second straight season and walked more than 100 times for the first time in his career giving him a .448 on base percentage for the season. Has hit .320 or higher in six of his last seven seasons and batted .385 after the All-Star break.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – well at least one free agent signing worked out for the Boston Red Sox this season. Gonzalez set a career high in batting average at .338 while setting a career high in runs scored at 108. He also added 45 doubles, 27 home runs and 117 RBI. The move from PETCO Park did not help his home run total as he managed just 10 long balls at Fenway Park.

5. Joey Votto – it was a solid season for Votto as he was just under his numbers from 2010 in all categories. Picked up his power toward the end of the season, hitting 15 home runs in July and August.

6. Mark Teixeira -will always score runs and drive guys in playing for the Yankees and the power was nice at close to 40 home runs. But a batting average drop for the third straight season pushes him out of the top tier and into the next group with Ryan Howard.

7. Ryan Howard – was pretty much the same player as he was in 2010. Gone seem to be the days of 100+ runs scored and 40+ home runs. Turns 32 in November so his best days are likely behind him. Still a solid second tier first basemen though.

8. Paul Konerko – still going strong at age 35 as he hit over .300 for the second straight season. Home runs came back down as expected which impacted his runs scored total as well as a weaker White Sox lineup.

9. Michael Morse – if you pro-rate his numbers from 2010 he was pretty much as forecasted in 2011 with a higher than expected batting average at .303. Did most of his damage on the road where he hit 20 of his 31 home runs. Will qualify at first base and in the outfield in 2012.

10. Mark Reynolds – the move to the American League left him with similar results to what we saw in 2010. Lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts and a low batting average. Batting average was much better on the road (.264) than at Camden Yards where he hit only .176.

11. Mark Trumbo – took advantage of Kendrys Morales being out of action and never looked back, posting 29 home runs and 87 RBI. Stole eight of his nine bases the first half of the season and still has some work to do on his plate discipline with 25 walks and 120 strikeouts.

12. Billy Butler -was closer to his 2009 season which was a good thing, but still doesn’t score enough runs or hit enough home runs to justify where he gets picked in fantasy drafts. Each year people keep thinking this is the year he breaks out and hits 30 bombs but so far it has not happened.

13. Eric Hosmer – a very nice rookie campaign that saw him improve as the season wore on. Hit .313 after the All-Star break with 11 home runs, 44 RBI and nine stolen bases.

14. Carlos Pena – stat line was pretty close to what he posted the year before in Tampa Bay. Now a free agent, he will hope to catch on a starting first baseman with a team that misses out on Pujols or Fielder.

15. Carlos Lee – batting average rebounded a little bit, but his home run total dropped for the fourth year in a row. Has scored under 70 runs for four consecutive seasons as well and that does not figure to change with the Astros lineup in 2012. Will be in the final year of his contract next season at age 36.

16. Michael Cuddyer -hit 20 home runs for the third time in his career and hit double digit steals for the first time in a season. His versatility is going to make him a wanted man on the free agent market and he should land a decent szied contract this winter. Played 17 games at second base so he has extra value in leagues where the position minimum is 10 or 15 games.

17. Freddie Freeman – solid rookie season and showed a little bit more power than many anticipated. Hung tough against left-handed pitching with seven home runs in 186 at bats.

18. Adam Lind – batting average does not seem likely to rebound to anything close to his 2008 season until he is able to improve his plate discipline. Fell apart the second half of the season, batting just .197 in 239 at bats.

19. Gaby Sanchez – did not take a step forward in 2011 as he had a mirror season of 2010 with identical at bats, runs scored and home runs. Hit just .225 after the All-Star Break with six home runs in 231 at bats.

20. Kevin Youkilis- fell short of 500 at bats for the third straight season and hit the lowest mark of his career, batting .258. Turns 33 in March so rank him accordingly to his age and injury history.

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2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 3rd, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at catcher. I used the criteria of 250 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings so players like Buster Posey will not be included.

1. Mike Napoli – the steal of the off-season for the Texas Rangers when they acquired Napoli from the Los Angeles Angels for relief pitcher Frank Francisco. The power was as expected but the .320 batting average is more fluky than the norm, powered by a .383 batting average in the second half of the season.

2. Carlos Santana -it was a very positive season for Santana in his first full season as catcher in Cleveland outside of the .239 batting average. He led all catchers in runs scored with 84 and was second to Napoli in home runs with 27. Hit .318 against left-handed pitching but just .201 against right0handers.

3. Victor Martinez -Martinez seemed to thrive in his move to Detroit and to the designated hitter role on a more permanent basis, knocking in over 100 runs for the third time in his career. The 12 home runs were the lowest in his career since he hit 16 in 2006.

4. Alex Avila -the biggest surprise at catcher in 2011, Avila hit .295 with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. His two halves of the season were pretty consistent, hitting .286 with 10 home runs and 46 RBI in 245 at bats before the All-Star break and then hit .306 with 9 home runs and 36 RBI in 219 at bats after the break.

5. Miguel Montero -after missing time with injury in 2010, Montero came right back to his 2009 levels in terms of performance. He still struggles against southpaws, hitting just .195 in 113 at bats with only one home run.

6. Matt Wieters -he is getting closer to the type of season many people have been expecting from him, hitting 22 home runs with 68 RBI. He finished the season strong with 12 home runs the last two months of the year.

7. Brian McCann -fourth straight season of 20+ home runs. The only thing to nitpick would be his runs scored which has slowly been trending down the last few years.

8. Russell Martin -Martin’s 18 home runs were the second most of his career, but his batting average declined for a third straight season and the stolen bases have yet to come back to double digits. He did the majority of damage in two months with seven home runs in August and six in April.

9. Yadier Molina -Molina set a career high, hitting double digits for the first time with 14 home runs to go with 65 RBI. He also hit over .300 for the second time in his career and scored 50+ runs for the first time in a season.

10. J.P. Arencibia -not a bad rookie campaign for Arencibia as he flashed lots of power with 23 home runs and also chalked up 133 strikeouts. The .219 batting average is a killer though for a fantasy baseball team.

11. Miquel Olivo – Olivo’s stats lined up pretty close to Arencibia’s and his average is always going to float in the low .200′s as well with his 20 walk to 140 strikeout ratio.

12. Chris Iannetta -Iannetta made some small gains in 2011 with a jump in his walk rate and six stolen bases in nine attempts. Hit better when batting seventh where he hit .286 compared to .229 when batting in front of the pitcher.

13. Jarrod Saltalamacchia -some power and runs scored, but lack of discipline at the plate puts him in that sub .240 range for batting average.

14. Wilson Ramos -Ramos will be moving up several spots on the list when it comes time for the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings as he should see another 75 at bats or so than what he received in 2011. He put together a solid rookie season and now needs to improve his numbers on the road where he hit .222 compared to .319 at Nationals Park.

15. Jonathan Lucroy -another guy who should be moving a couple of spots in 2012. He needs to improve his plate discipline after just 29 walks against 99 strikeouts in 430 at bats.

16. Geovany Soto -his power numbers were the same as they were in 2010 except he had an additional 100 at bats so it should have been better. His walk rate was down and his strikeouts were up in 2011 which does not bode well for 2012.

17. Kurt Suzuki -another catcher who seems to trending in the wrong direction, as he managed only 44 RBI, exactly half of what he had in 2009 and his batting average fell for a third straight season.

18. John Buck -his batting average came back down to earth but he walked a little bit more so his on base percentage was up for the second year in a row.

19. Carlos Ruiz – his .283 batting average gives him a little boost as he is just barely average in the other three categories.

20. A.J. Pierzynski – his batting average stayed near his career number, but runs scored dropped for the third straight season and home runs were under double digits for the second year in a row.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 16th, 2011

Here is the sixth article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. A lot of time there are several outfielders that are ranked close and there could just be a point or two difference depending on what kind of ranking system you are using so then it all comes down to a matter of preference.

For example, I have Matt Holliday (4) and Josh Hamilton (5) with pretty close scored but given Hamilton’s injury, if I were at the draft table, I would take Holliday and the rankings reflect that.

Just a reminder that if you are looking for more player capsules and stat projections, the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide will be released on February 1 so be sure to check back for that.

1. Ryan Braun – hard to quibble with a .300 batting average, 100 RBI ever year and double digit stolen bases. Jump in ground ball rate the last two years has caused home runs to drop. Until he gets that turned around, 35 – 40 home runs is out of the question.

2. Carl Crawford – every few years seems to flirt with 20 home runs but not quite reach it. Hit .300 for the 5th time in his career and has stolen at least 46 bases every season except 2008 when he was injured. Has a .275 career average in Fenway Park with four home runs and 33 RBI in 320 at bats.

3. Carlos Gonzalez – how locked in at home was he? Batted .380 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI with an 18% strikeout rate. On the road, he hit 8 home runs with 41 RBI and a 28% strikeout rate. Despite being a young player with upside, there has to be a little correction coming in 2011.

4. Matt Holliday – hit .300 for the 6th season in a row and drove in 100 runs for the second straight year. Only blip was his stolen bases fell under double digits. Look for more of the same in 2011.

5. Josh Hamilton – had 100 at bats less than 2008 and still posted a similar stat line. Batting average was inflated will head down in 2011. Only concerns with owning him is the injury risk.

6. Matt Kemp – strikeout rate jumped to 28% and he was a mess on the base paths, going 19-for-34. Numbers dropped off in the second half with a .233 average and only four stolen bases. 2011 is a new season with a new coach so no reason now to expect some bounce back.

7. Shin-Soo Choo – numbers from 2009 and 2010 were very very close. It is going to be hard for him to crack 25+ home runs with his current ground ball rate where it is at. Still, a 20-20 outfielder with a .300 average is a good get in early rounds.

8. Nelson Cruz – Injuries have held him under 470 at bats the last two seasons. Massive difference when he hits at home, hit .371 / .267 home vs. road in 2010 and .286 / .232 in 2009.

9. Andrew McCutchen – made some nice small gains in his second season, slighlt raising walks and cutting strikeouts. Ended the season on a high note hiting .326 in September with 4 home runs, 15 RBI and 17 walks against 9 strikeouts.

10. Justin Upton – missed all of Septmeber with a shoulder injury but it had to be bothering him longer than that looking at his numbers after the All-Star break with just three home runs in 167 at bats. Of bigger concern in 2011 is his strikeout rate which jumped to 31% last year. With Adam LaRoche and Mark Reynolds both gone, lots of RBI to be had in the middle of the lineup.

11. Alex Rios – seemed more comfortable in Chicago for a full season and his numbers were in line with his 2008 year in Toronto. Was huge in the first half of the year where he hit .305 with 15 home runs and stole 23 bases vs. 258 in the second half with 6 long balls and 11 steals.

12. Jacoby Ellsbruy – rib injuries knocked him out of action for almost all of 2010. Still remains to be seen if he hits leadoff this season with all of the changes to the Boston lineup. This ranking is based on his remaining in the top spot.

13. Jayson Werth – expect the average to come back down after a little bit of luck in 2010. Will miss Citizens Bank Park where he hit .293 with 52 home runs in 901 at bats.

14. Jason Heyward - hit with more power before the All-Star break but had a better batting average the second half of the year. Impressive walk to strikeout ration in his rookie season at 91 vs. 128. Needs to hit more fly balls to give him a chance for more home runs as right now a long of the long balls are line drive shots.

15. Andre Ethier – problems hitting left-handed pitching keeps his average from reaching .300. Suffered injury in May which cost him at bats and then power in June as he hit only one home run in 105 at bats.

16. Ichiro Suzuki – despite his advancing age, keeps himself in some great shape that his career low in at bats has been 639 in 10 seasons. Scored under 100 runs for the second year in a row thanks to a weak Seattle offense. Contact rate and speed has dropped the last two years slightly so stealing 40 bases again is going to be harder.

17. Hunter Pence – has been pretty consistent with stats bunched tightly together. Home runs have been 25 for three straight seasons. Stolen bases rose for the second straight year. Expect more of the same in 2011.

18. Curtis Granderson – was on track for a repeat season of 2009 until injuries struck. Liked his new home stadium where he hit four more home runs and batting 30 points higher. His rising strikeout rate though keeps his batting average in check. Hit 17 home runs in 241 at bats after the break.

19. B.J. Upton - there was a lot going on for B.J. behind the numbers in 2010. On the plus side, walk rate went up. On the down side, strike out rate has risen for the second straight year to 31% now. Batting average against right-handed pitchers has fallen for three straight years to not sit at .218.

20. Shane Victorino – hit a career high 18 home runs aided by 12 from the lead off spot when he was filling in for Jimmy Rollins. After the All-Star break he came back to earth, hitting four home runs with 21 RBI in 235 at bats. Batting avergae dropped against right-handed pitching for the second straight year.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 9th, 2011

Here is the fifth article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. The two biggest names at this position that can have a big impact on your draft are Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval. One who had a career year while the other two suffered a dramatic decline in production.

If you are looking for steals late in the draft, there are a few players that will be able to swipe close to 20 bases, such as Erick Aybar, Cliff Pennington and Ryan Theriot.

I had Chipper Jones ranked as number 21 so I did not forget him on the list. I love Chipper and have owned him many years but at his age coupled with coming off an ACL injury and still up in the air whether he is ready for spring training, it is time to cut the chord on him. Every year fantasy baseball owners draft him thinking he is going magically get 500 at bats and each year he falls way short.

1. Evan Longoria – lost 11 home runs from 2009 but hit a couple extra double and 5 triples. Finally was caught stealing after going 16-for-16 in his first two seasons. Stole 13 of his 15 bases before the All-Star break.

2. David Wright – rebounded from his power outage in 2010 as his numbers were closer to 2008. Drop in batting average can be attributed partially to his jump in strikeout rate which was at 27%. Numbers dropped off the second half of the year as he hit .244, 70 points lower than in the first half and was just 4-for-8 in stolen bases.

3. Alex Rodriguez – father time is slowly started to catch up to A-Rod as he fell short of 525 at bats for the third straight season. Stolen bases were under double digits for the first time since 2002. Batting average fell for the third straight season and ended at a career low .270. With all that being said, he still ended up with 30 home runs and 125 RBI at age 35.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – batting average rose for the third straight season, putting him over .300 for the first time in his career. Lack of power at home caused him to fall short of 30 home runs, with just nine long balls in 71 games.

5. Jose Bautista – the biggest wild card in fantasy baseball drafts in 2011. Hard to project a guy that had only 59 home runs in his previous 1,754 at bats and then hits 54 bombs in 569 at bats as age 29. Then again,everyone in Toronto seemed to have a power surge last year almost. Hit 30 home runs in 265 at bats in the second half with a .287 batting average. Hit double digit home runs in four of six months last year.

6. Michael Young – enjoys the benefits of Rangers Ballpark where he hit 16 of his 21 home runs and batted 47 points higher. Numbers tailed off after the All-Star break as average dipped to .262 vs. 301 in the first half. The move to designated hitter on a permanent basis should help him stay healthy as he gets older, but it is a negative for keepers league owners as he will likely only qualify as a utility player in 2012.

7. Adrian Beltre – we have seen this story from Beltre before, with a huge season right before he becomes a free agent (see 2004 stats). Broke 100 RBI for the second time in his career and the 28 home runs were most since that 2004 season. Has a .306 lifetime average at Rangers Ballpark with 9 home runs and 34 RBI in 219 at bats.

8. Mark Reynolds – a rising strikeout rate that hit 42% left him little chance at the plate in terms of batting average. Still can hit the long ball when he connects but his batting average was a killer. Lack of time on the bases also impacted his stolen base total. Ended the season on a 5-for-64 note with 31 strikeouts.

9. Aramis Ramirez – a frustrating player to own due to the various injuries that he seems to suffer every year. Has played in more than 145 games only twice in the last six seasons. Started out slow the first half of the season, hitting .207 in 237 at bats. The second half of the season was vintage Ramirez when healthy, batting .276 with 15 home runs and 51 RBI in 228 at bats.

10. Pedro Alvarez – just look at his second half numbers and picture that over the course of a full season and your are looking at 25 home runs and 100 RBI. He was an RBI machine in the minor leagues so no surprise there. Either is the work he still needs to do on plate discipline which sets his ceiling for batting average likely at .280.

11. Casey McGehee – broke 100 RBI thanks to Prince Fielder having an off year hitting in front of him. Solid batting average with 20+ home run power but still seems to be somewhat undervalued in fantasy baseball drafts.

12. Pablo Sandoval – came out of the gate hot in April with a .368 average and three home runs but it was all down hill from there. Out of shape and was out of a job by the end of the season. Off-season reports are positive news but weight until he shows up camp for a true look to see if he has made any changes.

13. Ian Stewart – was on pace for 20+ home runs and 80+ RBI when injuries struck the second half of the season. With Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez in the mix, will likely sit against left-handed starters on most nights.

14. Scott Rolen - Rolen turned back the clock at age 35 as he hit 20 home runs for the first time since 2006. He ended the season on a power outage though, hitting only three home runs in 188 at bats, possibly as a result of back and hamstring injuries suffered in early July. Has not had 500 at bats in a season since 2006.

15. Chris Johnson – hit over his head from an average perspective as he is more a .270 hitter than a .300 one. With 13 walks and 73 strikeouts in 70 games after the break, he still has work to do on pitch selection.

16. Chase Headley – no improvement to speak of in his third season. Has hit in the .260′s every year with little power. Only positives were seven more steals and a few more runs scored thanks to an additional 67 at bats in 2010. Has not been able to figure out how to hit in PETCO Park where his average is .226 in his career vs. .296 on the road. If you are in a league with daily transaction, he has a little bit more value.

17. Placido Polanco – a solid hitter but little power at a corner sport makes him hard to own in fantasy baseball leagues. Hit just one home run the second half of the year in 293 at bats.

18. Danny Valencia – looked like he would have little value in 2011 as a light hitting third basemen and then jacked five home runs in September which made his overall line look a little better.

19. Casey Blake - 2010 marked the third straight season that Blake has hit less home runs at home than on the road. Average was he has been better at Dodger Stadium but the power part has been a different story. Nearing the end of the line now at age 37.

20. Kevin Kouzmanoff – average fell for the third straight season and the move away from PETCO did not help his power numbers as he only hit five home runs at home. Has shown no inclination to want to learn the strike zone.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 8th, 2011

Here is the fourth article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of shortstop. As usual the position is top of heavy with only a couple of players with possible upside in the middle tiers with Ian Desmond, Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus.

If you are looking for steals late in the draft, there are a few players that will be able to swipe close to 20 bases, such as Erick Aybar, Cliff Pennington and Ryan Theriot.

Just a reminder that you will be able to get player projections and more player rankings in the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Tools Draft Guide which will be released on February 1.

1. Hanley Ramirez – scored under 100 runs for the first time in his career and home runs dropped for the second consecutive season. Lost out on some RBI chances by getting 97 at bats from the leadoff spot. Combination of his position plus his ability still makes him the number two pick in fantasy baseball drafts and he will go number one in some leagues depending on the number of teams, roster size, etc.

2. Troy Tulowitzki – it’s interesting that statistically his season was better in 2009 in most categories except batting average, yet his ADP looks like he will be drafted higher in 2011. Saved his season stat wise with an incredible September, hitting 15 home runs and knocking in 40 runs in 115 at bats while hitting .322.

3. Jose Reyes – held up for a whole season, but made less effort to steal bases which hurts his value. Was only 11-for-19 on stolen bases the second half of the season. He went in the second to third rounds in most fantasy drafts last year when he was injured so don’t expect to get him at any type of discount in 2011.

4. Derek Jeter – the decline is finally starting to show for Jeter at age 36. Because of his team and where he hits in the lineup, he will still be good for runs scored. His .270 batting average was a career low as was his .340 slugging percentage. Power numbers were down after the All-Star break with just two home runs in 298 at bats. Struggled against right-handed pitching, bating .246 in 341 at bats.

5. Jimmy Rollins – Just turned 32 in November and batting average has dropped for three straight years. After suffering three different injuries to his legs last year in the form of strains and muscle pulls plus with him being a free agent at the end of this season, hopefully he has hit the weight room hard in the offseason to take of those potential issues in 2011. With an ADP that currently puts him in the middle of the third round, people picking at the front of the draft and going to have a good chance to grab him.

6. Alexei Ramirez – has had a pretty solid cluster grouping in three seasons in all stat categoires except for runs scored which has edged up slightly each season. Ran more on the bases the second half of the season, stealing 10 of his 13 bases.

7. Rafael Furcal – was on his way to a comeback season before injuries struck again. Has had less than 400 at bats in two of the last three years. Still managed to put up the same amount of home runs and RBI despite having 230 less at bats and his stolen bases were over 20 for the first time since 2007.

8. Elvis Andrus – caught a break when Julio Borbon could not cut it in the outfield and moved from last to first in the batting order. Got worse on the base paths in 2010 which is a slight concern going forward. Was only 9-for-14 on steals after the All-Star break.

9. Stephen Drew – maybe the expectations are too high based on the hype and his last name that he doesn’t get enough credit for having a decent season and others take it to be disappointing. Has kind of settled in to what he is, a mid-teen power guy with a couple of stolen bases. With Reynolds and LaRoche gone, this should be the year he finally cracks 70 RBI.

10. Starlin Castro – turns 21 in March so is still a few years away from any power showing. Should be close to a .300 hitter for his career, but steal needs to work on his base running. Was only 10-for-18 on stolen bases with the Cubs and had a success rate of 65% in the minor leagues.

11. Ian Desmond – not a bad rookie season for Desmond who will be close to 15 home runs and 20 steals if he can hit a few more home runs on the road after hitting just two in 263 at bats last year. Still needs work on his plate discipline as evidenced by his 28 to 109 walk to strikeout ratio. SO far his numbers in 607 total bats have been better than what he showed in 638 games in the minor leagues in terms of batting average and stolen base success.

12. Miguel Tejada – Tejada returns to the National League and the Bay Area at 36 years of age. Like Jeter, he also suffered a drop in batting average last season. He has been consistent with playing time, getting 600 at bats or more in nine of the last 10 seasons.

13. Jhonny Peralta – power picked up after being shipped to Detroit as did his plate discipline. Qualifies at SS and 3B but has much more value at SS or middle infield.

14. Marco Scutaro - don’t expect another 600 at season from Scutaro since he will be moving from hitting first to lower in the batting order in Boston. Will also qualify at 2b in leagues with a 10 game minimum.

15. Yunel Escobar – was awful in Atlanta the first half of the year with no home runs in 261 at bats with a .238 batting average before being shipped to Toronto where he hit .275 with four home runs in 60 games. Should bounce back like Kelly Johnson did when he left Atlanta but not quite to that extent.

16. Jason Bartlett – came back to earth as his power from 2009 did not carry over and he even ran less on the bases which left him with little value. Move to PETCO Park and the nation league will impact his stats as well.

17. J.J. Hardy – a wrist injury plus the pressure of playing for a new team and trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2009 impacted his performance at the plate. Was better after the All-Star break hitting .304 in 181 at bats vs. .226 the first half of the year.

18. Erick Aybar – season ended on a down note for Aybar after hitting .206 after the All-Star break. Managed to drive in only 16 runs in 325 at bats in the first half which almost seems impossible in the American League. Was pretty much useless hitting anywhere in the lineup but first, hitting .184 in 147 at bats in other parts of the lineup.

19. Cliff Pennington - batting average and power are always going to be low, but if you need steals late in the draft, could be worth a shot. It’s a pity he cannot get on base more because when he steals, he has great success, 40-for-51 career in the major leagues.

20. Ryan Theriot – wasn’t the same player once he left Chicago. Was only 4-for-9 on steals the second half of the season. His stats at Busch stadium are not too pretty, with a .220 average in 109 at bats. Qualifies at both second base and shortstop in 2011.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on December 9th, 2010

Here is the first article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of catcher. It will be interesting to see how fantasy baseball drafts unfold in March with Buster Posey, Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters likely having the biggest variances in average draft position of the top catchers, simply because they are young and don’t have a long track record.

As you will note from the rankings below, I have Jesus Montero listed as catcher. If he starts in the major leagues, he will not qualify at catcher for one to three weeks depending on your leagues requirement for games played by position. With Jorge Posada headed for the designated hitter role, Montero has a shot if the Yankees don’t sign anyone.

1. Joe Mauer – his numbers in 2010 were much in line with his 2008 season. Many people expected him to close to 20 home runs and he did not even make it half way there. His new home ballpark Target Field seemed to definitely have an impact as he hit only one home run there compared to seven at home in 2008. Value is still high due to his batting average and runs scored.

2. Victor Martinez – now with the Detroit Tigers, will serve as designated hitter and part-time catcher. Led all catchers in RBI last season with 79, despite missing 20+ games due to injury. Has not fared well at Comerica Park in his career, hitting .225 in 169 at bats with four home runs and 19 RBI.

3. Brian McCann – led the National League in RBI for catchers last year and has been as consistent as they come with more than 20 home runs in four of his last five seasons. Walk rate took a big step forward in 2010 with 74 free passes in 479 at bats.

4. Buster Posey – it was a banner year for Posey, claiming the NL Rookie of the Year award and managing a pitching staff that led the major leagues in ERA. Will likely be the fourth fantasy baseball catcher selected in drafts in 2011. Hit much better on road in 2010, with a .351 average, 12 home runs and 38 RBI.

5. Carlos Santana – the injury that ended his season early in 2010 does nothing to diminish his value. Will likely go in the top 10 rounds of your fantasy baseball draft and some will value him like they did Wieters last year. Has great plate discipline and should have a solid year in 2011.

6. Kurt Suzuki – His stats would have been close to his 2009 numbers outside of batting average if he had not missed 20+ games. Really struggled hitting third, batting just .222 with two home runs compared to hitting clean up where he hit .272 with 9 home runs and 35 RBI in 191 at bats. Struggled the second half of the season, hitting .233 with only three home runs in 249 at bats.

7. Geovany Soto – caught barely 100 hundred games for the second year in a row as arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder ended his season early. When he did play, he looked more like the 2008 version and not the guy in 2009 that hit only .218.

8. Mike Napoli – looked to be headed for a season low on playing time before the injury to Kendry Morales occurred. Hit 26 home runs despite hitting none in April while getting only 42 at bats. Will lose some at bats to Jeff Mathis at catcher if he remains with the Angels.

9. Miguel Montero – suffered a torn meniscus in early April and ended up playing in only 85 games. When he returned, he was hacking at the plate, striking out almost as many times as he did in 2009 in 128 less at bats. I would still value him close to his 2009 season with a little lower batting average.

10. Matt Wieters – I wrote last year he was likely a year away from making the jump to a McCann level and his numbers were worse than most expected. Hard to fathom him scoring only 37 runs in 446 at bats. Showed some slight improvement the second half of the year as his plate discipline improved. Will have to watch his ADP in spring to see where he is going. Could be a good value play or he may be over hyped again. Need to have a little patience as he had just 578 at bats in the minor leagues before he was promoted.

11. Miguel Olivo – it looked like he was going to be in a time share in Colorado with Chris Ianetta but took the job away with a first half that saw him hit .325 with 11 home runs. Fell back to the earth after the All-Star break with a .193 average in 166 at bats. Just signed with the Seattle Mariners and should be good for 15 home runs again in 2011.

12. Jorge Posada – turns 40 in August next season as age is starting to take a toll on him. Has not had more than 400 at bats since 2007. If you draft him in mixed leagues, you will need to grab a catcher for your reserve squad in order to replace Posada when he is out.

13. Jesus Montero – I have him slotted for 400 at bats in order to get this ranking. With Posada headed to designated hitter, Montero could get his shot unless the Yankees sign a free agent. Regardless if they do, they are going to need to find room for his bat in the lineup at some point in 2011.

14. John Jaso – not a bad year for Jaso who was nowhere on the fantasy radar heading into the 2010 season. Had better numbers hitting leadoff where he had a .272 average with three home runs and 16 RBI in 169 at bats. Has extra value in leagues with an on base percentage or OPS category.

15. A.J. Pierzynski – just resigned for two years with the White Sox so prospect Tyler Flowers will remain in Triple-A for at least another season. Has had more than 460 at bats every season since 2003. Boosted his batting average by the end of the year, hitting .299 after the All-Star break.

16. Yadier Molina – Has some value as a second catcher in fantasy baseball leagues but lacks one solid category to start in one catcher leagues unless it is extremely deep. Kept his steals and broke 60 RBI, but has show little power and scores very few runs.

17. Carlos Ruiz – came on strong after the All-Star break, hitting .316 with six home runs and 40 RBI as he saw more consistent playing time. Batting average has gone up 83 points over the last two years. Has added value in leagues where on base percentage is a category.

18. Chris Snyder – no doubt about the power, the question is can you afford to have his batting average on your roster? Luckily the impact is not as big as another position since he will likely be around 350 at bats or so.

19. John Buck - turned his 2010 career year into a three year contract with the Florida Marlins. One of numerous Blue Jay players to see a jump in home runs last year. Has a career batting average of .243 so don’t think he all of a sudden has become a good average hitter.

20. Russell Martin – Martin was headed toward another year similar to 2009 before injuring his hip in August which ended his season after he had played 97 games. Now a free agent, he is looking for a new home after the Dodgers signed Rod Barajas. Seems to be following a similar path to Jason Kendall at the same age range with a drop in his stolen bases.

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2010 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 19th, 2010

Here is a look at my final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for catcher. My previous article discussed my change in philosophy regarding the catcher position in 2011 and I think the rankings from this year only help to illustrate that point.

1. Joe Mauer – despite the drop in power, he still hung on to the number one spot thanks to his batting average and runs scored.

2. Victor Martinez – I had Martinez ranked very close to Mauer last year and it would have been pretty close had he not missed time due to injury.

3. Brian McCann – solid catcher that is pretty consistent from year-to-year, one of the few power hitters left in the Atlanta Braves lineup.

4. Mike Napoli – the injury to Kendry Morales gave him extra playing time after he was mired on the bench for the first part of the season behind Jeff Mathis.

5. Buster Posey – it was an unlikely move by San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean to go with the youngster at catcher early in the season over the grizzled veteran Bengie Molina, especially with the staff the Giants had. Posey passed with flying colors on offense as well as calling the game and is poised to be a high draft pick in 2011.

6. John Buck - it seemed like every player in Toronto hit 20 or more home runs and Buck was no exception. He is a free agent this winter so he is not someone I would be looking at as a keeper in any type of format.

7. Miguel Olivo – took the job from Chris Iannetta and never looked back. If you are in a league with daily transactions, you might want to reserve him for road games next season as his splits were .318 with 10 home runs at home vs. .211 with four home runs away from Coors Field.

8. Kurt Suzuki – Suzuki seemed to wear down in the second half of the season, hitting 10 home runs before the All-Star break and only three after it with a .233 average. He seemed most comfortable in the cleanup spot where he hit .272 with 9 home runs in 191 at bats.

9. Jorge Posada – had the exact same at bats as he did in 2009 and drove in 24 less runs, thanks to a batting average that was 37 points lower. Now at age 39, you almost have to take a backup catcher on your reserve if you own him to cover for the 40 games he is going to miss during the season.

10. Geovany Soto – Soto had bounced back in 2010 and was heading toward his 2008 numbers before getting injured. Was on fire in July, hitting .315 with 6 home runs and 20 RBI.

11. A.J. Pierzynski – AJP is consistent as his numbers always seems to be in the same range every season. Turning 34 in December, he might be looking for a new team as a free agent with youngster Tyler Flowers close to being ready for the Chicago White Sox.

12. Carlos Ruiz – hit over his head in 2010 with a .302 average after a previous career high of .259 in full-time at bats. Has extra value in leagues with on base percentage as a category as he walked more than he struck out for three straight years.

13. Yadier Molina – has posted pretty similar numbers in all categories the last three seasons, although his batting average has dropped off as he has struggled against left-handed pitching. Nice to see that his stolen bases held up from his 2009 numbers.

14. Rod Barajas - seemed dead and buried in New York and then got revived by a move to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the end of the season, hitting .297 in 64 at bats with five home runs and 13 RBI.

15. John Jaso – injuries to the two catchers in front of him in Tampa Bay opened a spot in the lineup for him and he held his own, even hitting leadoff at times. Likely to be in a platoon role in 2011 after hitting just .191 against left-handed pitching.

16. Ryan Doumit – power numbers were somewhat similar to 2008, but he is just too injury prone to be considered in the upper tier of catchers. Ended up seeing time in the outfield when he came back with Chris Snyder in the fold. At bats are a question mark for next year depending on what Pittsburgh does in the offseason.

17. Matt Wieters – one of the biggest fantasy baseball busts of 2010 as he showed no real improvement from 2009. It seems almost impossible for an American League catcher to score 37 runs in 450+ at bats but that is what he managed to do. One of the few buy low candidates at the catcher position right now, but likely will have his ADP driven up by the time spring drafts roll around.

18. Chris Snyder – power is legit but batting average is a real drag on your teams category. Hit just .169 after coming over to Pittsburgh with five home runs in 40 games.

19. Ramon Hernandez – can’t count on him for 400 at bats anymore with age and Ryan Hanigan behind him, but he did manage to hit .297 this season with almost 50 RBI.

20 – Miguel Montero – injury caused him to miss almost half the season so he could be slightly undervalued for 2011. A little alarming that he managed to almost strike out the same number of times as 2009 despite having 128 less at bats.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitchers (Part III)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 6th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the third part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of starting pitchers ranked 41-60.

41) Carlos Zambrano – four straight seasons of declining value in terms of dollars earned. High number of innings pitched at an early age seem to be taking a toll on him now despite being only 28. Has spent time on the disabled list the last two seasons. Only positive sign in ’09 was the strikeout rate bounced back last year to his 2005 level.

42) Tim Hudson – made the comeback from Tommy John surgery and fared pretty well at the end of the year outside of WHIP ratio. I would be conservative with his forecast and use his 2005 numbers as your baseline.

43) Rich Harden – injuries and lack of innings keep him this low in the rankings. Has not pitched over 150 innings in a season since 2004 when he tossed 189 2/3. Has spent time on the disabled list each of the past five seasons, missing an average of 80 days per year. Lack of innings has biggest impact on wins as his career high stands at only 11, also back in 2004.

44) Clay Buchholz – finished the season in strong fashion with a solid September, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA  and 1.09 WHIP ratio. Batting average against dropped by 40 points in August and by another 32 points in September.

45) Kevin Slowey – wrist surgery ended his season in July. Strikeout rate improved but he was able to be hit easier in 2009 than in 2008. Fly ball pitcher that is prone to giving up home runs. Needs to start getting more ground balls to get his ERA down. Health is also a factor after spending parts of last two seasons on the disabled list.

46) Scott Kazmir – was scuffling in Tampa Bay in 2009, then a change of scenery to Los Angeles and he turned into a different pitcher, albeit in a small sample size. His 5.92 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for the Rays suddenly became 1.73 and 1.05 with the Angels. Health risk tempers expectations going forward with him missing a month or more of time in three of the last four years.

47) Jonathan Sanchez – was it really that easy for the light bulb to go on? Threw a no-hitter in early July and was then a totally different pitcher the second half of the season. Had a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP ratio after the All-Star break with a 10.4 K/9 rate., while holding batters to a .206 average. Going to be hard to maintain those numbers until he improves his walk rate which was 4.9 per nine innings.

48) J.A. Happ – ERA regression coming in 2010 as luck and a high strand rate held it under three last season. Needs to build on the improvements he made the second half of the season to his walk and strikeout rates.

49) Hiroki Kuroda – slightly increased his strikeout rate, but had his season cut short by injuries. His fantasy baseball ADP is lower than where he should be going for a guy with an ERA under 3.80 and a WHIP ratio in the 1.20 range since coming to the United States. One downside is he turns 35 in February and spent time on the disabled list each of the past two seasons.

50) Randy Wolf – his 2009 season came out of nowhere when you look at the last few years of his career. You can bet that his ERA and WHIP ratio are going back up in 2010. Has been healthy the last two seasons after missing three months per year with injuries from 2005 – 2007. Helped himself last season by holding left-handed hitters to a .159 batting average compared to a .283 mark in 2008.

51) Francisco Liriano – I had him ranked here before his performance in winter ball. Overall numbers for 2009 were not pretty, but a deeper look gives some reason for hope. Home numbers show a 4.55 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP ratio compared to 6.75 and 1.77 on the road so there is still skill there. Have to think some of it is mental now that he is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like from his comments that he has rediscovered his confidence as well as his fastball this off season. We shall see if he can carry that performance over to spring training.

52) Johnny Cueto – looked like he was taking a step up from his rookie season when he fell apart the second half of the year. Had 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half of the season. Numbers that fell off to 5.81 and 1.58 the second half of the year and included a stint on the disabled list. Stats also tailed off the second part of 2009 as well so you have to wonder if his body can hold up for an entire season.

53) Rick Porcello – racked up 14 wins at the tender age of 20. Second half had much better numbers with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP ratio. Has the stuff to improve his strikeouts totals. Ground ball rate in the 50th percentile bodes well for his future.

54) Jorge de la Rosa – was just a thrower the first half of the season with strikeouts and not much else. Morphed into a pitcher the second half of the season as ERA was 3.46 and WHIP ratio was 1.30 while maintaining a high K rate. Was much better on the road with 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP versus 5.21 and 1.44 at Coors Field.

55) Daisuke Matsuzaka – missed four months worth of time with shoulder problems, this coming on the heels of him missing almost a month in 2008 with the same issue. Looked okay in four starts in September and October but walks are still the biggest issue for him. I would set your expectations around his 2007 season with fewer strikeouts and less innings pitched.

56) Jeff Niemann – turned in a good rookie campaign after spending the previous two seasons in Triple-A. Stats were similar between the two halves except for the improvement in strikeouts, improving his rate from 5.1 to 7.4 after the All-Star break.

57) Ervin Santana – was not able to fully build on his 2008 breakout campaign as a sprained ligament in his elbow affected his first half stats. Was much better the second half of the season with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP ratio despite giving up 16 home runs in just under 100 innings.

58) Mark Buehrle – pretty consistent numbers every season except for some fluctuations to his strikeout rate. Ability to limit walks and keep home runs in check ensures that his ERA stays under four the majority of the years.

59) Joe Blanton  – enjoyed his first full season in the National League, as he increased his strikeout per nine rate by 2.4. It’s always easier to pitch with confidence when you have a high scoring offense giving you 7.4 runs of support per start.

60) Shaun Marcum – missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the latter part of 2008. Tossed 15 2/3 innings in the minor leagues last season, so not enough of a sample size to draw any real conclusions from. No reason he can’t come back close to his 2007 season.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitchers (Part I)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 4th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the eighth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the starting pitchers.

1) Tim Lincecum – totaled 260+ strikeouts for the second straight season. People worry about his size and that he might break down, but the pitching motion taught to him by his dad seems to be working out so far. Has replaced John Santana as the one pitcher that will go in the first round in fantasy baseball drafts.

2) Roy Halladay – has turned up the strikeouts the last two seasons boosting his K/9 ratio by two per game. Has won 16+ games four consecutive years with an offense not as good as the new one he will be playing for in Philadelphia. Also gets the benefit of moving from the American League East to National League East which should only help his numbers. Great chance that he gets his third 20 win season this year. To fully the realize the impact of what a move from the American League to the National League means, check out the numbers for Cliff Lee and Javier Vazquez last season.

3) Dan Haren – mirror seasons almost between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. Three consecutive years of almost 200 strikeouts and a tight range of numbers for his ERA and WHIP ratio. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters. As consistent as they come.

4) Zack Greinke – the mental part of his game finally caught up to the talent and a star was realized. A phenomenal season in 2009 but I don’t want to pay for a repeat that is not likely happening in 2010. Did not allow more than three earned runs in a start until the beginning of June. Let’s see what happens if he faces some adversity this season and how he copes with it.

5) Felix Hernandez – third straight season of falling ERA as he has now shaved a full two earned runs from his mark in 2006. High strand rate kept his ERA under three so expect some correction there. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters.

6) CC Sabathia – concerns about workload early in his career never materialized as he has been a workhorse every season. Best chance in the American League to crack 20 wins with the offense around him and a stud closer. Much better the second half of the season with a 2.74 ERA and a strikeout per inning.

7) Justin Verlander – a combination of lowering his walk rate by 1.5 per nine innings and boosting his strikeout rate by 2.8 per nine allowed him to edge out Lincecum for the strikeout title. Much better pitcher at home last season with 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Comerica Park vs. 4.04 and 1.26 on the road.

8.) Johan Santana – underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in September and is supposed to be ready for spring training. Can’t assume an automatic bounce back to 2007 as his strikeout was down the last two years upon moving to the National League which is not a good sign. Usually a move to the league with no designate hitter boosts a pitchers strikeout numbers. Watch his stats in spring training to see how he is performing.

9) Adam Wainwright – was death on right-handed hitters last year, holding them to a .217 batting average. Dominant after the All-Star break with a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP ratio. Should be good for more of the same in 2010 if his arm can handle the 100 inning jump.

10) Josh Johnson – really not that far off from his 2006 season when he was last healthy except with better command. Like Wainwright, had a 100 innings jump from 2008 to 2009. Does having undergone Tommy John surgery already preclude him from future injury risk? I guess only time will tell.

11) Jon Lester – HUGE jump in strikeout numbers, boosting his K/9 rate by 3.5. After an awful first two months of the season, he was dominant the rest of the way with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.

12) Tommy Hanson – his .225 batting average against would have been seventh best if he had enough innings to qualify. Took some time to adjust to the major leagues the first half of the season. Flashed his stuff after the All-Star break with a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. Right-handed hitters had no chance against him, batting a meager .192.

13) Chris Carpenter – numbers are terrific but age (will be 35 in April) plus his injury history makes him less than reliable. Has spent time on the disabled list four straight seasons. May be worth owning only if he falls a few rounds in the draft or you can get him at a discount in an auction. Tough to own him at full price knowing the odds are stacked against you.

14) Cliff Lee – fantasy baseball ADP slightly higher than where I see him. Sure, he was a beast in Philadelphia, but now he is back in the American League. Before the trade, control in Cleveland was worse than 2008 with 1.30 WHIP in ’09 vs. 1.11 in ’08. Strikeout rate was also slightly down with 6.9 in ’08 and 6.3 in ’09 in American League. When is off, the numbers can be tough to stomach. Had five starts where he gave up six or more earned runs in a game.

15) Josh Beckett – numbers turn out fine at the end of the season, but always seems to have a month or two each year where he gets clobbered so keep that in mind if you own him for the first time. Set a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts in 2009. Has only manged to toss 200 innings or more in three of eight seasons.

16) Yovani Gallardo – despite missing all of 2008, turned in a good season in 2009. Win total held in check due to control issues and pitch count numbers that keep him from working deeper in games. Managed to make it to six innings or more in just 17 of his 30 starts. Splits seem to show that he wore down the second half of the season. Had a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half and went 4.56 and 1.45 after the All-Star break.

17) Matt Cain – got his head back in the game in 2009 after struggling with lack of run support in 2008. Had the lowest run support of any starting pitcher in 2008 and it affected him on the mound. Got an extra 1.24 runs per mound appearance in ’09 and pitched much better. Strand rate kept his ERA low so expect a little regression this season.

18) Cole Hamels – not much difference in 2008 vs. 2009 except for being much more hittable by right-handed hitters. After allowing a .215 batting average in ’08, that number rocketed up to .282 in ’09. Much better after the All-Star break with a 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9 rate. First half featured elbow issues in March and an injured ankle in May that probably accounted for the higher numbers. No reason for him not to return to 2008 levels.

19) Jake Peavy – some risk to him,  having thrown 200 innings in only three of six seasons. Loses the comfort of Petco Park which helped to surpress his ERA. Strikeout rate probably drops by at least one per game with the move to the American League.

20) Ubaldo Jimenez – how much the world has changed that a Colorado Rockies pitcher would crack the top 20 starters. Ground ball rate of 53% helps to limit some of the impact of Coors Field. Limits damage by keeping hits in the ballpark. Ranked seventh in home runs allowed in ’09 and tied for second in long balls surrendered in ’08.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers 21-40.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Designated Hitters

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 4th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the seventh report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the designated hitters / utility players.

1) Vladimir Guerrero – strikeouts inching up, the few walks he takes inching down, though not a surprising trend as he turns 35 in a few days. In a good hitting environment in Texas and still owns a high batting average. Stats were much better after the All-Star break when he hit 11 home runs in 207 at bats.

2) David Ortiz – maybe it was simply a case of his eyesight being affected that caused the power outage the first part of the year. After hitting one home run in his first 178 at bats, he got eye drops for dry eyes in early June and then  belted out 27 home runs over the next four months. Average has dropped almost 100 points in two years. Struggled to make contact even in the second half of the season when he was hitting home runs, fanning 23% of the time vs. 18% in 2009.

3) Hideki Matsui – shows he still has plenty of power in his game, though turning 36 in June means he could miss some time. Has spent time on the disabled list three of the past four seasons. Keep at bat projections in the 450-500 range.

4) Travis Hafner – has missed time the last two years due to shoulder issues which has sapped him of some of his power. Struggles to hit left-handed pitching the last two seasons means days of his .300 batting average are over. Set at bat projections for no more than 400 and be happy with anything over that.

5) Pat Burrell – first half injury likely affected his power. Tried to make up ground the second half of the season and turned into a strikeout machine, fanning in 32% of his at bats. Playing time at risk with the options the Tampa Bay Rays have and prospects coming up in the minors.

6) Andruw Jones – really just a one trick pony now with some power and not much else. Not much chance for the batting average to go up when you strike out 36% of the time. Right now locked in as the Chicago White Sox designated hitter. Reports are he is in great shape coming into training camp, but being in shape doesn’t fix a broken swing.

7) Mike Jacobs – assuming he finds a starting job somewhere. You know what you get with Jacobs, 400 at bats and 20 home runs with batting average downside which could be helped if he is played exclusively against right-handed pitching.

8.) Jim Thome – recently signed with the Minnesota Twins. Playing time is going to be the issue as there has already been contradicting quotes from the general manager and manager just how he will be used. I have him penciled in for 300 at bats which still should yield home runs in the upper teens.

9) Randy Ruiz – made major league debut at the age of 30 in 2008. Owns minor league average of .304 so ability to hit for average is there. Should see time at the very least against left-handed pitching and in brief sample showed he had no problem with right-handers as well.

10) Ken Griffey Jr. – has value in an AL only league, with power to hit 20 home runs in 400 at bats. Not much use in a mixed league format unless you have daily transactions.

Take note that on Monday, 2/15 I will be releasing the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $9.99. It’s better than any magazine you will find on the stands because the information will be updated weekly up until Opening Day and the data will be in excel format so it will be easy to use. For that low price, you will get:

  • Over 450 player projections – easily sortable by league or position. Includes all player ages as of Opening Day.
  • All of the player notes that have been posted on the website as a quick cheat sheet to use during your draft.
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions.
  • A weekly article (that will not appear on the website) in regards to fantasy strategy for winning an auction or draft league.
  • An in-depth article on how to use the player projections. Player rankings and projections are great, but if they are not used correctly, you are not getting the most out of them.
  • Advice and guidance from someone that has been in the trenches and won leagues before. A lot of people writing articles or doing projections are just that, writers that have not been able to successfully win at fantasy baseball. In the 20 years that I have been playing fantasy baseball, I have won draft and auction leagues in multiple formats and can relate that information to you the reader.

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfield (Part III)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 3rd, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the third installment of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. Notable players that I have ranked higher than their fantasy baseball ADP include Juan Pierre, Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick. Players that are ranked lower than their current ADP include Michael Bourn, Michael Cuddyer and Rajai Davis.

Just to give you some context to my rankings, I rank all players according to the players in their own position. You really have several ways you can rank players, either as a whole group and then break them out by position, which is what I use to draft the first six to eight rounds. After that point, it becomes a matter of filling out your roster by position and that’s where the rankings I have posted on the site come into play.

With that said, let’s examine the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 41-60.

41) Garrett Jones – has always shown power in the minor leagues although not to the extent he showed in 314 at bats. The batting average was a surprise as he had a .258 career minor league mark.  Offers added flexibility of qualifying at first base and outfield.

42) Michael Cuddyer – power spike at age 30, with consistent splits before and after the All-Star break. I don’t see this as a new home run level though, I would forecast for the low 20′s and be happy with anything above that.

43) Ryan Ludwick – 2008 season now looks like the outlier with 2009 the new baseline. Was on pace for 30 home runs last year before power fell off in the second half. Slugged 15 home runs in 246 at bats the first half, but only hit seven long balls in 240 at bats after the break.

44) Juan Pierre – don’t understand why everyone is discounting him so much. Should see 550 at bats and steal 50+ bases. Unlike all the other high steal players in the outfield, Pierre has the best track record and the most solid batting average. Pro-rate his numbers to 520 at bats last season and it puts him at roughly 85 runs, 46 RBI and 45 steals. Some really good value here based on his current fantasy baseball ADP.

45) Chris Coghlan- solid rookie season but even better in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, hit .372 with 54 runs and seven home runs. Not a whole lot of power upside, but will score a lot of runs hitting first and will have a solid batting average. Should steal some more bases; swiped 34 in 2008 and 24 in 2007 in the minor leagues. Great batting eye, minor league walk to strikeout ratio was 154 to 147.

46) Vernon Wells – power never came back from the broken wrist that caused him to miss 50 games in 2008. Just underwent underwent surgery on his left wrist in November and is supposed to be ready to start hitting in January. Watch reports on him in spring training to see how the wrist responds and set his power projection numbers appropriately.

47) Jermaine Dye – this ranking is assuming he finds a starting job somewhere as he is currently still unsigned. Had a great first half hitting .302 with 20 home runs and 55 RBI before falling off the cliff the second half, batting a paltry .179 with only seven home runs and 26 RBI. Based on the splits, have to assume there was an injury that affected him the second half of the season.

48) Corey Hart – has not been able to improve on his numbers from 2007. Not a god sign when he is in the prime age to be having a breakout. Average and power has dropped two straight years against left-handed pitching. Couldn’t even count on him for stolen bases last year as he was successful just 65% of the time.

49) Colby Rasmus – needs to improve his plate discipline and average against left-handed pitching to take the next step up. Hit only .160 against southpaws in 106 at bats last year. First half was .278 with 46 runs, 11 home runs and 34 RBI. Second half was in the tank with a .206 average and five home runs in 204 at bats. I think the heel injury that began bothering him June affected him the second half of the season. Should be able to steal more bases as he had double digit steals every year in the minor leagues and an 81% success rate.

50) Nick Swisher – if you can handle the yearly variations in his batting average, the rest of the categories are pretty consistent year in and year out. Rebounded against left-handed pitching and his batting average came back up from 2008 level. Offers added flexibility by also qualifying at first base.

51) Cody Ross – underrated and picked after players with “the name”. If you removed all of the players names and looked at just the stats, I think a lot of owners would have him ranked higher on their fantasy baseball draft board.

52) Michael Bourn – don’t see how he has an ADP that puts him in the top 20 outfielders. Career minor league average of .285 but strikes out too much to get much higher than that in the majors. Improvement against left-handed pitching by almost 100 points helped keep his average up. In a mixed league draft, it becomes hard to own a player like Bourn for three reasons.

a. you should try to get five category players as much as possible. Especially in the first three rounds, this should be your focus. Concentrate on getting 40-50% of your stolen base goal in the first 3-4 rounds depending how many teams are in your league.

b. carrying a player like Bourn puts you at a disadvantage in home runs and RBI, putting you two categories behind other owners that are drafting a more balanced team. It also means you are relying on him for that one category and if he turns an ankle or injures a hamstring, you lose the value of his steals. A hitter than has power and steals, even if he stops running, at least you have the value of his power.

c. drafting Bourn weakens you at another position. If you take a player like Bourn in the 5th or 6th round which is what his current fantasy baseball ADP is, that means you are taking a weak hitter at another position where there is less depth. In a 23 round draft, your last few hitters taken are most likely a corner player, an outfielder or two, utility hitter and possibly a catcher. So if you planned on taking an outfielder in round 20 and say a third basemen in round 6, you might have ended up with say Aramis Ramirez and Brett Gardner who could get you 40 steals. Instead by taking Bourn that high, you end up with Bourn at OF and Edwin Encarnacion at 3B.

53) Nyjer Morgan – more batting average upside than Bourn as Morgan owns a .294 career minor league average and a .303 mark in the major leagues. Had 18 steals in 278 at bats with Pittsburgh and then ran wild after going to the Washington Nationals, stealing 24 bases in 191 at bats. His stolen base attempt rate has been one every 9.6 plate appearances in the major leagues with a 70% success rate. If we give him 600 plate appearances, then an estimate of around 45 steals sounds reasonable.

54) Rajai Davis -I have him penciled in for 450 at bats. The Oakland A’s outfield looks pretty crowded in addition to finding at bats for Jake Fox and top prospect Michael Taylor who will ready for major league action by mid-season possibly.

55) Julio Borbon – hit for average in college, in the minors and then once he got to the major leagues, .30o+ in every stop. I would expect similar numbers to Morgan, only difference is this will be Borbon’s first season as a full-time starter so there might be some growing pains.

56) Juan Rivera – pro-rate out his 2008 numbers to match 2009 at bats and the stat lines are pretty much the same. Made marked improvement against left-handed pitching, boosting his average by 100 points. Only negative is his past injury history.

57) Josh Willingham – started the year with limited at bats due to the crowded Nationals outfield. In the second half when given regular playing time, numbers returned to 2007 levels. Should be good for 500+ at bats in 2010.

58) Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle gave him a chance for full-time at bats and he responded. Power stat splits were even first half and second half of the season. After going only 5 for 10 in stolen base attempts in first half, he was a perfect 11 for 11 after the All-Star break.

59) Mike Cameron – decent power numbers late in the draft if you can afford to take the hit to your team batting average. Stolen bases fell to single digits last year. Now at age 37, will probably remain that way going forward.

60) Travis Snider – needs to improve his plate discipline and cut down on his strikeouts in order to make sure he hangs on to starting spot. Won the starting join in 2009, hit .242 and was sent back to Triple-A. Came back in August and was slightly worse, striking out in 37% of his at bats.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be designate hitters / utility players.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfield (Part II)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 2nd, 2010

by Todd Lammi

Continuing the sixth report looking at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for  outfielders, here is a look at spots 21 – 40. I have a few people ranked lower than their current ADP in Josh Hamilton (obvious possible downside there) and Ichiro Suzuki as mentioned in the previous article. I also have several players ranked a few spots higher than their current ADP in Denard Span, Jay Bruce and Nolan Reimold.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 21-40 to see how they shake out.

21) Alfonso Soriano – knee bothered him all season and  accounted for the drop in stolen bases among other things. Stats were good in April with seven home runs and four stolen bases before the knee issue started in May. Reunited with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo from Texas, so perhaps he gets his batting average back up.

22) Shane Victorino – solid consistent stats across the board as his 2009 line matched 2008 except for stolen bases. Those should be rebound a bit this year.

23) Josh Hamilton – injuries ruined his 2009 campaign limiting him to only 336 at bats. I would not expect a bounce back all the way to his 2008 numbers. Remember that his ’08 season was driven by ridiculous first half numbers of 21 home runs and 95 RBI in only 377 at bats. In the second half of the season that year when the hot streak wore off, he was a more realistic 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 247 at bats.

24) Torii Hunter – a groin injury cut short what was turning in a career season for Hunter. Should be good for a 20-20 season in ’10 with an average  around .280

25) Hunter Pence – somewhat saved his season by hitting 12 home runs the last two months of the year. Has not been able to crack 80 runs scored or 85 RBI in any season in the Houston Astros lineup.

26) Ichiro Suzuki – spelled out my case for him yesterday. Average varies too much from year to year to automatically project him in the .350 range. Stolen bases could be held to same levels as 2009 if he bats second with the arrival of Chone Figgins.

27) Andrew McCutchen – it was quite a 2009 for McCutchen as upon arriving in the majors suddenly improved his power and his stolen base success rate from the minor leagues. Power was aided by a hot streak in August when he jacked eight home runs. The other three months of the season he managed to hit only four. Keep the power expectations around the same for 2010 with more stolen bases thrown in.

28) Nate McLouth – numbers were in line with the previous year when you factor in he had 100 less at bats. His 2008 batting average looks like an outlier as he been under .260 every other season.

29) Denard Span – Ichiro lite without the upside for batting average. Best thing is you can get him several rounds later than he should be going.

30) Jay Bruce – wrist injury limited him to 345 at bats, but still managed to deliver 20+ home runs. Average has not been pretty in the majors, but was .308 in the minor leagues so he has the chance to improve on that if he can improve his plate discipline. Made some gains in that department despite the smaller sample size by increasing his walk rate by three percentage points.

31) Alex Rios – a bad year all around turned even worse after being claimed by the Chicago White Sox on waivers. In 146 at bats with his new club, Rios managed to hit only .199. Have to chalk it up as one of those off years that players sometimes have (see Jason Bay 2007).

32) Raul Ibanez – was on fire the first half of the season before coming back down to earth in the second half. Hit just .232 with 12 home runs in 241 at bats after the All-Star break. Had a career year at age 37. Don’t expect a repeat in 2010.

33) Carlos Quentin – still has not had over 480 at bats in a full season after missing time with Plantar Fasciitis in foot last year and also missed time in 2007 with a bad hamstring and torn labrum. Power was tracking to 2008 numbers, but batting average regressed to years pre-2008. Career batting average now sits at .254.

34) Johnny Damon – spike in home runs driven by new home ballpark where he knocked out 17 of his 24 long balls.  Still offers five category value which will be at a slightly lower level in a few categories depending where he signs.

35) Jason Kubel – gradual increases in playing time have led to upticks in stats the last two seasons. Inability to produce against left-handed pitching limits the upside to his numbers. Last season in 148 at bats, Kubel hit 2.43 with two home runs and 20 RBI against southpaws.

36) Adam Jones – had a big first off before tailing off after the All-Star break and an injury ended his season. Still needs to improve plate discipline to take the next step up in average.

37) Carlos Gonzalez – RBI total limited because 10 of his 13 home runs were solo shots. Like Jones, he still needs to work on plate discipline. Interesting though that his walk to strikeout ratio was the best when batting first, 13 to 24 vs. 15 to 46 in other spots in the batting order. Held his own against lefties, but with the depth of the Colorado Rockies, we will need to see if he plays full time against them in 2010.

38) Nolan Reimold – combine his Triple-A numbers and the Baltimore Orioles stats in 467 at bats and you get 70 runs, 24 home runs, 72 RBI and 14 steals. I think he will post a line similar to that in a full-time role this season. People want to discredit him as an older rookie but when you go to college and are advanced one level per year, you are going to hit the major leagues at the age of 25 or 26 so he is right on time in my eyes.

39) Brad Hawpe – four straight years of pretty similar numbers give or take a few stats. At bats always limited to around 500 as he sits against some left-handed pitching. Should be in line for more of the same in 2010 with the Rockies outfield depth.

40) Carlos Beltran – out at least the first month of the season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee and could be out even longer. Right now I have him down for 475 at bats. Should have a better guess as we get closer to the start of the season how his health is. If you are drafting now, I think this is the upside of his value.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be outfielders 41-60.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfield (Part I)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 1st, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the sixth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the top 20 outfielders. Before I get a flood of emails from readers, I will tell you that Ichiro Suzuki is not in the list, so no, I did not miss him.  I see a lot of people are drafting him high as he has a current fantasy baseball ADP of 42 and is the 10th outfielder being selected.

To me, he is one of those people that are drafted based on his name and not necessarily his value. I will shows you my projections for two players and you decide how much difference there is.

Player A 95 runs  8 home runs  65 RBI  24 steals  .295 avg.

Player B 90 runs  7 home runs  46 RBI  29 steals  .318 avg.

Player A is Denard Span who has an ADP of 123 and is currently going 81 picks after Ichiro, who is Player B.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the players rank.

1) Ryan Braun – made small gains in plate discipline which was nice to see in his second year. Has roughly the same stats as Chase Utley, only difference is the position scarcity which puts Utley number four overall and Braun number five.

2) Matt Kemp – fell just short of the 30-30 club in 2009 and should be ready to break that barrier this year. Drove in over 100 runs despite batting seventh or eighth for 41% of his at bats.

3) Matt Holliday – when it was all said and done, put up similar stats to the year before in Colorado. Should continue to post stats long the same lines now back in the National League with St. Louis.

4) Jacoby Ellsbury – put in a nice sophomore season, stealing double figure bases every month except for August when he stole eight. Should score 100 runs or more every season in the Red Sox lineup. Has improved his stolen base percentage since reaching the major leagues, as he now as a career 85% success rate.

5) Carl Crawford – 2009 numbers returned to 2007 levels after injuries derailed his 2008 season. Went crazy on stolen bases in the first-half of the season with 44 bags, but only stole 16 after the All-Star break and was caught nine times.

6) Jason Bay – looks like he become more home run conscious last season as his strikeout rate went up almost seven percentage points. Showed he could handle playing in a big market environment. Now the question is whether he can handle the dimensions of Citi Field.

7) Justin Upton – turned in a 20-20 season at the age of 22. Much more patient at home than on the road with 37 walks compared to 18 in similar number of at bats. Still has power upside into the 30 home run range.

8.) Grady Sizemore – elbow and abdominal injuries wrecked his 2008 campaign. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting under .225 three of the past four years. Set your expectations against his 2006 season, with less runs and a lower batting average.

9) Jayson Werth – exploded at age 30 in his first season as a full-time starter. The at bats were the most he has had in a season since 2002, when he split time between Triple-A and the Toronto Blue Jays. Power should regress a little bit but the stolen bases should continue thanks to a 89% career success rate.

10) Nick Markakis – two straight seasons of declining stats in home runs and stolen bases, which is not the right direction to be trending when you are only 26 years old. Still has solid stats and has hit 40+ doubles the last three seasons so there may be a few more home runs lurking.

11) Adam Lind – turned in a monster power season with 46 doubles and 35 home runs. Stats were solid all around; every month of the season, home vs. road and lefty vs. right pitching.

12) Nelson Cruz – numbers would have been even better if not for an injury last season that kept him under 475 at bats. I have him ranked higher than his current fantasy baseball ADP so I think there is draft value here. Numbers were in line with his pro-rated line from the end of the 2008 season. Steals were an added bonus, but not out of the blue as he had 24 in ’08 at Triple-A.

13) Curtis Granderson – will enjoy hitting in Yankees stadium for half of his games. Needs to improve against left-handed pitchers to get his batting average back up. Hit only .183 in 180 at bats with nine RBI against southpaws.

14) Andre Ethier – gradual increase in power the last two years although part of the jump in home runs was just due to more at bats. Average dropped as he had trouble with lefties, batting only .194 in 165 at bats.

15) Manny Ramirez – was on fire in April hitting .372 and then was suspended for PED use. Put up so-so numbers upon his return and hit 10 home runs in 231 after the All-Star break. Will be 38 in May so I would not count on a return to over 30 home runs again.

16) Adam Dunn – as consistent as they come in power with close to 40 home runs and 100+ RBI each season. You know his batting average is going to be in the .240 – .260 range so you will need to offset it with other people in your lineup. Offers the added bonus of qualifying at first base as well this season.

17) B.J. Upton – gave back the gains in his walk rate from 2008. Second straight year of almost 30 point drop in batting average. Went on a tear in June hitting .324 with five home runs, 22 RBI and 14 steals; then disappeared for the rest of the season. Stole 31 bases in 81 games and then managed to only swipe 11 after the All-Star break. Still have to hold out hope that he turns things around at age 25 and gets back to his 2007 numbers.

18) Carlos Lee – fifth straight season of 100+ RBI. Disappointing to see him score almost the same number of runs as 2008 despite an additional 188 plate appearances. A number that does not figure to get any better after  losing Miguel Tejada from the lineup. The days of his double digit steals seem to be over.

19) Shin-Soo Choo – numbers in line with pro-rating his 2008 stats. Has the speed to go 20-20 for the next few seasons. Solid batting average and an overall ADP of 69 makes him a nice value in the fifth or sixth round.

20) Bobby Abreu – you have to love the consistency that Abreu brings to the table, driving in 100+ RBI in seven straight seasons and scoring no less than 96 runs during that time period. His lowest at bat total in the last 10 years was 546 back in 1999. Now at age 36, he still should be good for another couple of years.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will outfielders 21-40.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 31st, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. Third base looks to be the shallowest position this season with a strong top tier of players and not many players with real upside potential later in the draft.

Keep in mind the additional flexibility offered by players like Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Chase Headley, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Teahen, Garrett Atkins and Jake Fox as they all qualify at two or more positions. If I have two players that are rated close together, I will usually give the nod to the player that qualifies at two positions to help manage my lineup during the season.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.

1) Alex Rodriguez – the number three overall pick and locked in still as the number one third basemen. Did not start running until the second half of the season when he stole 11 of his 14 bases so he should steal closer to 20 bases in 2010.

2) Evan Longoria – reduced his strikeout rate by 3% in 2009. If he can make similar strides this season, the closer he gets to pushing his batting average toward .300. Should post low double digit steal totals this year.

3) David Wright – some people are still drafting him ahead of Longoria in fantasy baseball mock drafts this year which I think is a mistake. No one has been able to produce a solid reason for Wright’s huge drop in power going from 33 home runs to only 10 last season. Was lucky to hit over .300 with a huge 40%  hit rate which was four percentage points higher than his career high. Never seemed to find his swing all season as he had a seven percentage point increase in his strikeout rate. It could have been the result of the New York Mets new ballpark and Wright changed his batting approach to accommodate and / or all of the injury issues the Mets faced and the disappointing season affected him as well. Either way, I think it is prudent not to assume an automatic return to his 2008 stats.

4) Mark Reynolds – his 2010 fantasy baseball ADP has varied, from the beginning to the end of the second round in mixed league drafts. No chance for upside in batting average when he strikes out in 39% of his at bats. His strikeout rate has slightly increased the last two seasons so there is downside to his numbers. If hits .239 again as he did in 2008, that costs you approximately two to three points off your team’s batting average which means you need to offset him with high average hitters at other positions if you want to finish in the top three in the batting average category.

5) Ryan Zimmerman – rebounded from his torn labrum in 2008 and put up numbers similar to his 2007 season. Would be nice if he returned to his stolen bases total from 2006 but that is quibbling. For now, enjoy the four category performance that he provides.

6) Pablo Sandoval – qualifies at first base or third base. Should be a .300 hitter for the next 10 years or so. Power came quicker than expected as he blasted 25 home runs and 44 doubles at age 23. Hit over .300 every month last season except for July when he hit .298.

7) Aramis Ramirez – I have him ranked very close to Sandoval, but you know that Ramirez will some time during the season. Since 2002, he has had over 550 at bats in only 3 of 7 years. Missed time with a dislocated shoulder last season but should be fine to start 2010.

8.) Chone Figgins – has steadily raised his walk rate the past few seasons, giving him more times on base and opportunity for stolen bases. One negative though is his stolen base success rate has been slowly dropping the last five years, from 79%, 77%, 77%, 72% to 71% last season.

9) Michael Young – power spike at age 32 brought him back to 2005 levels, so expect some regression in 2010. Puts up nice stats because he consistently gets 630+ at bats ever year except last season. As a career .302 hitter, he is a good asset for team batting average.

10) Gordon Beckham – will provide extra flexibility the second or fourth week in the season with his move to second base this year, depending on you fantasy baseball league rules. Spent a total of 233 at bats in the minor leagues before coming up to the Show. Average should trend up as he adjusts to major league pitching.

11) Ian Stewart – legit power but still struggles to make contact. Career minor league batting average of .293 but has come no where close to that in the majors. Upped his strikeout rate to a Mark Reynolds-esque 40% after the All-Star break. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting a meager .178 last season. Recent addition of Melvin More means there could be a platoon in the works.

12) Adrian Beltre – multiple injuries ruined his 2009 season and sapped him of his power. I would use his 2005 numbers as the baseline with a few more steals sprinkled in.

13) Alex Gordon – still waiting for him to live up to the expectations based on his minor league performance but so far it has not happened. Even though he was limited by injuries last season, it was nice to see that he kept his 2008 gains in his walk rate. With hype now suppressed, he is finally being drafted where he should have been in years past.

14) Jorge Cantu – even though power has fluctuated, RBI total has remained consistent and should continue to do so in 2010. Improved performance against left-handed pitching has helped to boost his batting average.

15) Chipper Jones – age is finally catching him up with. Project him for 425 at bats and consider anything more as gravy.

16) Kevin Kouzmanoff – should enjoy being away from Petco Park where he hit under .230 each of the last two seasons. Will be interesting to see if he is able to adjust to the Oakland A’s patient approach at the plate after never walking more than 32 times in a season in the major leagues.

17) Casey McGehee – moved into the starting lineup in June and never looked back. Not the greatest player defensively, but neither is top prospect Mat Gamel so McGehee should be good for 500+ at bats this season. Offers the added flexibility of also qualifying at second base.

18) Casey Blake – not a sexy pick and he is old, but still gets the job done every year. Should be solid once again in 2010 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

19) Jhonny Peralta -what happened to the power? Turned into a ground ball machine last year and the home runs disappeared. Should bounce back a little bit but probably not all the way to 20 home runs again.

20) Chase Headley – hit more home runs at home, but batted almost 100 points less. Should be able to add a few more home runs as he continues to develop.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be the top 20 outfielders.

Read More »
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