by Todd Lammi
This is the second in our series of fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of first base. There is some good depth at this position with the added flexibility of guys like Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu and Garrett Jones.
There are really two clusters or tiers of players in the first six rounds or so of mixed league drafts. The key will be picking out the player that performs above the others in that group to give you the best chance of winning your fantasy baseball league.
With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for first base in 2010.
1) Albert Pujols – owners that picked Pujols first last season got an extra bonus with an additional 10 home runs and nine stolen bases compared to the previous year. Pujols has been chosen as the number one pick in all 33 NFBC scoring fantasy baseball drafts at Mock Draft Central so far this year.
2) Ryan Howard – this is great in two cases for people picking at the end of the first round in fantasy baseball drafts. One is you will most likely get the chance to draft Howard if you want him, as the current ADP has him as the fifth first basemen. Secondly, if you get him, you are getting a player with more value than the players drafted in front of him.
3) Mark Teixeira – should put up similar numbers to 2009 as he enjoyed the benefit of the new Yankees’ stadium, hitting 24 home runs vs. 15 on the road and a healthy Alex Rodriguez in the lineup for the entire season.
4) Prince Fielder – had a monster 2009 season that puts him in the first round of fantasy baseball drafts this season. Has not been distracted by his big potential pay day looming after 2011 or the possibility of the Milwaukee Brewers potentially trading him this season or next.
5) Miguel Cabrera – he turns the fantasy baseball magical age of 27 in April. Whether he continues his consistent numbers of years past is in some question after recently admitting to undergoing alcohol abuse treatment.
6) Lance Berkman – Berkman is much in the same boat as Howard. Berkman’s ADP is lower than several players below him, yet I expect him to have more value. People are discounting Berkman because of his injury and age, but he is one of the few first baseman than can get you .300-90-30-100-10 and last year was his first year on the disabled list since 2005.
7) Joey Votto – lots of people are on the Votto bandwagon this season as his current ADP has him as the 6th best first basemen and going in the second round in most mixed league fantasy baseball drafts. The only problem with owners picking him as high as the second round means people are projecting him at around .290-30-100-8 which is somewhat of a leap of faith. If he falls short of those numbers, you have now lost in terms of value with your pick in the second round.
8.) Kevin Youkilis – offers the added flexibility of qualifying at third base in 2010. I have him ranked just ahead of Justin Morneau due to the injury concerns and the fact Youkilis hits in a better lineup.
9) Justin Morneau – carries a little risk coming off two injuries that can affect power hitters, with wrist surgery and a stress fracture in his vertebrae occurring at the end of the season.
10) Adrian Gonzalez – had 64 less at bats last season due to a huge increase in walks and still managed to hit more home runs. Only negatives are the lineup he plays in limits his RBI total and he has hit over .300 only one time in his career. He gets a bump in value once / if he is traded by the San Diego Padres. Gonzalez hit 28 home runs on the road last season and only 12 at home.
11) Carlos Pena – depends on how bad you want the power and if your team can absorb the batting average when choosing between Pena and Kendry Morales. Hurt by a 44 point drop in batting average against right-handed pitching last year. Expect a slight rebound and that his overall batting average is back in the .240 range.
12) Kendry Morales – had a fantasy baseball breakout year in 2009, finally get a full season of at bats. If you are a big believer in second-half stats providing growth for the following year, go the extra dollar on him in an auction format. Morales hit .330 after the break vs. 284 with four more home runs and 10 more RBI in 32 less at bats.
13) Derrek Lee - entered the time machine and went back to his 2005 levels in 2009. Now at age 34, don’t expect a repeat this year, there will be some regression likely. Take note that although the power came back, the stolen bases did not so keep the projections realistic.
14) Billy Butler – it seems like he has been around for quite a few years without fulfilling the high expectations from his minor league numbers, but the fact is he turns just 24 in April of this year. Turned up the power in a big way in 2009 with 21 home runs and 51 doubles!. If you have played fantasy baseball before, you know that eventually some of those doubles will turn into home runs as he continues to fill out. This might be the last year you can get him cheap.
15) James Loney – improved at the plate in 2009, taking an additional 25 walks while cutting his strikeouts by 17. But unless your fantasy baseball league uses on base percentage as a category, he isn’t as valuable. His 15 home runs in only 344 at bats in 2007 are now the outlier.
16) Paul Konerko – another fork in the road during the fantasy baseball draft, whether you want Konerko, Chris Davis or Adam LaRoche who I have grouped in the same tier. Approaching his mid 30’s now, you pretty much know what you are going to get with Konerko. His 2009 stats were in line with his 2007 numbers.
17) Chris Davis – really depends on how much risk you like to take in your fantasy baseball drafts whether you want to roll the dice on him. People that want him will look at his 93 at bats in September when he hit .290 after his demotion to the minor leagues. People that stay away will look at his 38% strikeout rate and say there is no way he keeps a job. The power is legit; whether he can hold on to the job is another question, especially with top prospect Justin Smoak already in AAA.
18) Adam LaRoche – you can pencil him in for 70 runs scored, 25 home runs and 85 RBI every year it seems. If you draft him, understand the history. He is a slow starter and puts up much better numbers in the second half every season. If you own him, don’t dump him cheap at the All-Star break.
19) Todd Helton – was able to control his back condition last season and got 544 at bats. Still carries a little bit of risk to miss time, but is a decent corner infielder to own to help boost your fantasy baseball team’s batting average.
20) Aubrey Huff – should be good for 15-20 home runs and 80+ RBI as the clean up hitter for the San Francisco Giants.
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Next up in the series for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be second basemen.
