The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as closers may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Looking at the list of the top 20 closers, there are three guys that stand out to me as value plays based on their current fantasy baseball ADP but they each come with some caveats. Jonathan Broxton going as the 15 to 17th best closer after being a top five closer a few years ago could provide some value for owners. New manager Don Mattingly is saying all of the right things in regards to Broxton being back as closer but there Dodgers have several options looming in the background which means a change would be easy to make if Broxton struggles. With Mattingly as a new manager, we also don’t know what his philosophy is in regards to player moves so if Broxton blows two saves in a week, how long will he stick with him? Does he let him ride out any type of struggles or does he pull the plug quick knowing he has other capable options?

Matt Thornton could be going higher for the White Sox but the presence of youngster Chris Sale in the bullpen combined with Thornton never having been a full-time closer before makes his value slide a little in current drafts. Since both pitchers are left-handed, there is no worry about a guy getting situational saves. It is either going to be one guy or the other.

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Joe Nathan is going later in fantasy baseball mock drafts and with Matt Capps in a fallback role, the Twins have some options. We will need to watch Nathan in spring to see if he performs as well and if he is able to close in back-to-back games. If the Twins keep him from throwing two consecutive days for the first month or two of the season, that could be five to eight saves he misses out on.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as first basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

I still find it hard to fathom Paul Konerko going in the 5th round in 15 team leagues. Not sure why everybody is so intent on paying for last year’s performance when 2011 is a whole new season. Last year he was going in rounds 11-15 in fantasy baseball drafts and now after hitting 39 home runs (the most he has hit since 2005) and turning 36 in March, he is suddenly a 40 home run hitter? That is not the way you win fantasy baseball leagues by paying for performance from the previous season.

Let’s compare two players from 2009-10 and see if you can guess which player is which

Player A (2009) 78 runs 21 HR 93 RBI .301 average
Player B (2010) 72 runs 19 HR 85 RBI .273 average

Really not too much difference between the two players outside of batting average, yet player A has an ADP that is six rounds higher. Player A is of course Billy Butler using his 2009 season which was better than his 2010 year and player B is Gaby Sanchez. I am not saying that Sanchez has to be drafted where Butler is, but rather Butler is going a little bit higher than he maybe should be with similar players available later in the draft.

Butler hit 51 double in 2009 and the thought was some of those double would turn into more home runs in 2010 and he ended up hitting six fewer bombs, while hitting 45 doubles. Even if you were to give the most optimistic of projections in order to justify where he is being drafted, you would have him around 25 home runs, driving in 95+ runs and hitting .310 or so.

One of the first things that you will notice when looking at any type of fantasy baseball ADP list is how often players move up or down in value from year-to-year. One year a player is injured, one year he is healthy and all of a sudden there is a four to five round change in value. Remember that you don’t want to be paying for 2010 stats when you are drafting in 2011. Rather you want to try to find guys that are going to give you good value based on where they are drafted.

While it is still early in the process for fantasy baseball drafts, here is a look at some of the things that stand out to me based on 11 drafts in the data.

Catchers: Joe Mauer (19), Brian McCann (26) and Victor Martinez (27) are all relatively close in order. Buster Posey is next at (55). Carlos Santana is currently ranked 10 at pick 175.

First base: Kendry Morales is a decent value at (64) coming off an injury. Paul Konerko is way too high at (71) coming off a huge year that he is not going to duplicate. Lance Berkman has taken a huge drop in value from a year ago coming in at 243.

Second Base: Rickie Weeks is going to break a lot of fantasy baseball owners hearts if he is going at pick 36 which is the middle of the third round and puts him ahead of Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler to name a few. Ben Zobrist, Brian Roberts and Aaron Hill have all taken steps back in the rankings, going in round 9 or later. Neil Walker is going much later at 347 than players who are going to hit half of the home runs that he does.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki is going to be gone by the middle of the first round in 2011. People are still holding high on Derek Jeter with him going in the 3rd / 4th round at pick 43. Ian Desmond looks like a decent pick at 163, going later than Starlin Castro and Alex Gonzalez.

Third base: Alex Rodriguez is on the verge of falling out of the first round at pick 16. It looks like fantasy baseball owners are a little too high on Pedro Alvarez at spot 82 which puts him in the middle of the 6th round. Mary Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval both take a big hit, going at the end of round 9, early in round 10. Third base looks to be pretty slim pickings after the middle tier is gone with injuries and questions marks toward the back end of the draft.

Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez is the number one outfielder ahead of Josh Hamilton. Ichiro Suzuki is still too high at pick 28. Jason Heyward takes a big jump up to spot 51 which is too high for him as well. Owners must be hoping he pulls a Carlos Gonzalez this season to be picking him ahead of proven players like Adam Dunn or Alex Rios. Jacoby Ellsbury has fallen from round 1/2 down to round five. I expect as we get closer to the start of the season he will start heading up the draft boards if he is going to hit first in the Boston lineup.

Injured players are going late as they should be with Grady Sizemore at 88 and Jason Bay at 177. Michael Stanton is going at pick 183 which puts him in round 13.

Designated hitter / Utility: Vladimir Guerrero is going at pick 72 which puts him in the 6th round. David Ortiz at pick 121 and Hideki Matsui at 173 are the only other utility players worth looking at in mixed league formats.

This is the sixth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players in the outfield. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Juan Pierre is currently being selected after the majority of base stealers like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis which is baffling to me. He has a proven track record in the major leagues and out of all the players on the list has the best chance of hitting .300, scoring 100 runs and stealing 50 bases. Each of the players going before him have questions that he does not carry. The only downside to him the last two years was his lack of playing time which will not be an issue in Chicago this year.

I like Nolan Reimold this season based on his current average draft position. His limited at bats upon arriving in the major leagues his suppressing his value this year it seems.  Hit .299 after the All-Star break in 187 at bats with 6 home runs, 22 RBI and 6 stolen bases. If you pro-rate that to 540 at bats, you are looking at a line of roughly 78 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 18 steals. I expect the RBI to be a little more than that and steals less, but he should still crack double digits.

Cody Ross, not a sexy pick, but is good value based on current ADP with the ability to get you 20-25 home runs late in the draft with 80-90 RBI.

Overvalued:

One dimensional speed demons. I wrote about this back in the article on 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. It is not a good idea to take an outfielder as high as Michael Bourn that has value tied up mainly in one category. If your team goal is 180 stolen bases and you have him projected for 60, that accounts for 33% of your teams total. Any type of pulled hamstring or injured ankle and then your team is scrambling for stolen bases during the year. There is also a lot of fluctuation in stolen bases from year to year so 60 stolen bases for him last season might only be 50 in 2010.

I also mentioned when discussing Bourn that taking him that high weakens you are another position that has less depth than in the outfield. I would much rather have the choice to pick between an outfielder at the end of the draft where the talent pool is much deeper that having to take a scrub middle infielder. Then you are taking hit in multiple categories like home runs and RBI by rostering Bourn plus a scrub infielder late, than getting an infielder where Bourn is being drafted and then grabbing an outfielder to close out the draft.

You are much better off getting stolen bases in the first four rounds of the draft spread out between four players rather than have the risk of your speed tied to the legs of one individual.

Andrew McCutchen is an exciting young player but much like Joey Votto at first base, the expectations for 2010 are pushing him very high in mock drafts lately. Started out as a 9th round pick back in December and has steadily been moving up the ladder ever since. Current ADP is toward end of 6th round in a 15 team mixed draft and I would not be surprised to see him going at the end of the 4th round by the time the season starts.

You have to remember though just like in an auction format, your goal when drafting is to get the best value out of each pick. The higher in the draft he goes, the higher his stat line you are forecasting becomes.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be starting pitchers.

This is the third article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at second base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Ben Zobrist looks to have good value based on where I have him ranked at compared to his average draft position. The position flexibility plus his ability to steal bases slots him ahead of Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill in my eyes.  Speaking of Hill, I think he is going to high in drafts in relation to Dan Uggla. The numbers I have projected for Uggla and Hill will be pretty close to the same outside of batting average which should not place them that far apart in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for second base.

I think there is great value for Jose Lopez as well because he is not that far away from Hill and Uggla in terms of production. Kelly Johnson is primed for a bounce back season in Arizona and offers good value based on his current ADP. Orlando Hudson is the one player I see that is overvalued on the list as the 12th second basemen going off the draft board. He is solid across the board, but so is every player behind him at that point in the draft and he offers no upside to his numbers.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be shortstops.

This is the second part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of closers ranked 16-30.

16) Trevor Hoffman – had his lowest ERA since 1998 so you know there is some regression coming. ERA and WHIP ratio aided by his improvement against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .222 average compared to .291 in 2008.

17) Frank Francisco – first season as full-time closer was a success outside of two trips to the disabled list which seemed to impact his second half numbers. Had a 2.28 ERA and .94 WHIP ratio the first half of the season. After the All-Star break, the ERA was 5.82 and the WHIP was 1.34.

18) Mike Gonzalez – had career high in innings pitched last season after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008. No doubt he can get the job done with a career ERA of 2.57 and 1.22 WHIP ratio. Question will always be how many innings does he get in before he gets hurt, with time on the disabled list four of the past five seasons.

19) Chad Qualls – good value based on his current fantasy baseball ADP. Knee ligament tear that ended his season in ’09 should not affect him in 2010. High ground ball rate plus good control means he should be solid as closer going forward.

20) David Aardsma – solid season on paper but I have some concerns going forward. High fly ball rate of 54% last season yet cut his home run per fly ball rate in half. If that regresses to the mean in 2010, his ERA jumps into the high three’s. Still has issues with command, walking 4.3 hitters per nine innings last year. Career WHIP ratio in the major leagues is 1.49.

21) Carlos Marmol – extremely hard to hit, but his inability to throw strikes makes his job as a closer far from safe. Walk rate jumped to 7.9 per nine innings last season, up from 4.2 in 2008. Like Aarsdma, Marmol is a fly ball pitcher and faces regression in his ERA after allowing only two home runs in 74 innings last year.

22) Bobby Jenks – ERA spiked due to nine home runs allowed after giving up 10 the last three seasons combined. Has been easier to hit the last two years with batting average against of .198 in 2007 rising to .230 in ’08 and to .250 last year. Questions about him are always going to revolve around his ablity to stay in shape.

23) Ryan Franklin – helped his ERA by allowing only two home runs after giving up 10 in 2008. Luck ran out after the All-Star break when his ERA was 3.33 and WHIP ratio was 1.70. Blew three of six saves in September.

24) Kerry Wood – first season in the American League did not go well for Wood as his home runs allowed more than doubled from the previous season and his control reverted back to 2007 level. Was much better the second half of the season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.32 WHIP ratio.

25) Brad Lidge – two seasons of extremes when looking at 2008 and 2009. Blew 11 saves last season after going a perfect 41 for 41 in 2008. Allowed 11 home runs and batting average against jumped to .301. Had surgery on his elbow in November and on his knee in January so it is questionable whether he will be ready for the start of the season. Possible that his knee injruy that bothered him in April and landed him on the disabled list in June was responsible for some of his issues last season.

26) Matt Capps – another closer who saw his home run total jump in 2010. After allowing five home runs in ’08, Capps gave up 10 in 2009. Walk rate also increased, allowing 2.8 walks per nine innings after walking only five batters in 53 2/3 innings in 2008. With only a one year contract with the Washington Nationals, there is a good chance that he gets moved at the trade deadline.

27) Leo Nunez – took the closer job away from Matt Lindstrom, but encountered some problems with the long ball, surrendering 13 home runs in 68 2/3 innings. Walk rate increased for the second straight season which offset his improvement in batting average allowed.

The following teams have multiple players in a battle for the closer position. The closer will most likely be determined at some point during spring training.

28) Toronto Blue Jays – Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg

29) Houston Astros – Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom

30) Pittsburgh Pirates – Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

This is the third part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of starting pitchers ranked 41-60.

41) Carlos Zambrano – four straight seasons of declining value in terms of dollars earned. High number of innings pitched at an early age seem to be taking a toll on him now despite being only 28. Has spent time on the disabled list the last two seasons. Only positive sign in ’09 was the strikeout rate bounced back last year to his 2005 level.

42) Tim Hudson – made the comeback from Tommy John surgery and fared pretty well at the end of the year outside of WHIP ratio. I would be conservative with his forecast and use his 2005 numbers as your baseline.

43) Rich Harden – injuries and lack of innings keep him this low in the rankings. Has not pitched over 150 innings in a season since 2004 when he tossed 189 2/3. Has spent time on the disabled list each of the past five seasons, missing an average of 80 days per year. Lack of innings has biggest impact on wins as his career high stands at only 11, also back in 2004.

44) Clay Buchholz – finished the season in strong fashion with a solid September, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA  and 1.09 WHIP ratio. Batting average against dropped by 40 points in August and by another 32 points in September.

45) Kevin Slowey – wrist surgery ended his season in July. Strikeout rate improved but he was able to be hit easier in 2009 than in 2008. Fly ball pitcher that is prone to giving up home runs. Needs to start getting more ground balls to get his ERA down. Health is also a factor after spending parts of last two seasons on the disabled list.

46) Scott Kazmir – was scuffling in Tampa Bay in 2009, then a change of scenery to Los Angeles and he turned into a different pitcher, albeit in a small sample size. His 5.92 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for the Rays suddenly became 1.73 and 1.05 with the Angels. Health risk tempers expectations going forward with him missing a month or more of time in three of the last four years.

47) Jonathan Sanchez – was it really that easy for the light bulb to go on? Threw a no-hitter in early July and was then a totally different pitcher the second half of the season. Had a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP ratio after the All-Star break with a 10.4 K/9 rate., while holding batters to a .206 average. Going to be hard to maintain those numbers until he improves his walk rate which was 4.9 per nine innings.

48) J.A. Happ – ERA regression coming in 2010 as luck and a high strand rate held it under three last season. Needs to build on the improvements he made the second half of the season to his walk and strikeout rates.

49) Hiroki Kuroda – slightly increased his strikeout rate, but had his season cut short by injuries. His fantasy baseball ADP is lower than where he should be going for a guy with an ERA under 3.80 and a WHIP ratio in the 1.20 range since coming to the United States. One downside is he turns 35 in February and spent time on the disabled list each of the past two seasons.

50) Randy Wolf – his 2009 season came out of nowhere when you look at the last few years of his career. You can bet that his ERA and WHIP ratio are going back up in 2010. Has been healthy the last two seasons after missing three months per year with injuries from 2005 – 2007. Helped himself last season by holding left-handed hitters to a .159 batting average compared to a .283 mark in 2008.

51) Francisco Liriano – I had him ranked here before his performance in winter ball. Overall numbers for 2009 were not pretty, but a deeper look gives some reason for hope. Home numbers show a 4.55 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP ratio compared to 6.75 and 1.77 on the road so there is still skill there. Have to think some of it is mental now that he is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like from his comments that he has rediscovered his confidence as well as his fastball this off season. We shall see if he can carry that performance over to spring training.

52) Johnny Cueto – looked like he was taking a step up from his rookie season when he fell apart the second half of the year. Had 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half of the season. Numbers that fell off to 5.81 and 1.58 the second half of the year and included a stint on the disabled list. Stats also tailed off the second part of 2009 as well so you have to wonder if his body can hold up for an entire season.

53) Rick Porcello – racked up 14 wins at the tender age of 20. Second half had much better numbers with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP ratio. Has the stuff to improve his strikeouts totals. Ground ball rate in the 50th percentile bodes well for his future.

54) Jorge de la Rosa – was just a thrower the first half of the season with strikeouts and not much else. Morphed into a pitcher the second half of the season as ERA was 3.46 and WHIP ratio was 1.30 while maintaining a high K rate. Was much better on the road with 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP versus 5.21 and 1.44 at Coors Field.

55) Daisuke Matsuzaka – missed four months worth of time with shoulder problems, this coming on the heels of him missing almost a month in 2008 with the same issue. Looked okay in four starts in September and October but walks are still the biggest issue for him. I would set your expectations around his 2007 season with fewer strikeouts and less innings pitched.

56) Jeff Niemann – turned in a good rookie campaign after spending the previous two seasons in Triple-A. Stats were similar between the two halves except for the improvement in strikeouts, improving his rate from 5.1 to 7.4 after the All-Star break.

57) Ervin Santana – was not able to fully build on his 2008 breakout campaign as a sprained ligament in his elbow affected his first half stats. Was much better the second half of the season with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP ratio despite giving up 16 home runs in just under 100 innings.

58) Mark Buehrle – pretty consistent numbers every season except for some fluctuations to his strikeout rate. Ability to limit walks and keep home runs in check ensures that his ERA stays under four the majority of the years.

59) Joe Blanton  – enjoyed his first full season in the National League, as he increased his strikeout per nine rate by 2.4. It’s always easier to pitch with confidence when you have a high scoring offense giving you 7.4 runs of support per start.

60) Shaun Marcum – missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the latter part of 2008. Tossed 15 2/3 innings in the minor leagues last season, so not enough of a sample size to draw any real conclusions from. No reason he can’t come back close to his 2007 season.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers.

This is the fifth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. Third base looks to be the shallowest position this season with a strong top tier of players and not many players with real upside potential later in the draft.

Keep in mind the additional flexibility offered by players like Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Chase Headley, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Teahen, Garrett Atkins and Jake Fox as they all qualify at two or more positions. If I have two players that are rated close together, I will usually give the nod to the player that qualifies at two positions to help manage my lineup during the season.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.

1) Alex Rodriguez – the number three overall pick and locked in still as the number one third basemen. Did not start running until the second half of the season when he stole 11 of his 14 bases so he should steal closer to 20 bases in 2010.

2) Evan Longoria – reduced his strikeout rate by 3% in 2009. If he can make similar strides this season, the closer he gets to pushing his batting average toward .300. Should post low double digit steal totals this year.

3) David Wright – some people are still drafting him ahead of Longoria in fantasy baseball mock drafts this year which I think is a mistake. No one has been able to produce a solid reason for Wright’s huge drop in power going from 33 home runs to only 10 last season. Was lucky to hit over .300 with a huge 40%  hit rate which was four percentage points higher than his career high. Never seemed to find his swing all season as he had a seven percentage point increase in his strikeout rate. It could have been the result of the New York Mets new ballpark and Wright changed his batting approach to accommodate and / or all of the injury issues the Mets faced and the disappointing season affected him as well. Either way, I think it is prudent not to assume an automatic return to his 2008 stats.

4) Mark Reynolds – his 2010 fantasy baseball ADP has varied, from the beginning to the end of the second round in mixed league drafts. No chance for upside in batting average when he strikes out in 39% of his at bats. His strikeout rate has slightly increased the last two seasons so there is downside to his numbers. If hits .239 again as he did in 2008, that costs you approximately two to three points off your team’s batting average which means you need to offset him with high average hitters at other positions if you want to finish in the top three in the batting average category.

5) Ryan Zimmerman – rebounded from his torn labrum in 2008 and put up numbers similar to his 2007 season. Would be nice if he returned to his stolen bases total from 2006 but that is quibbling. For now, enjoy the four category performance that he provides.

6) Pablo Sandoval – qualifies at first base or third base. Should be a .300 hitter for the next 10 years or so. Power came quicker than expected as he blasted 25 home runs and 44 doubles at age 23. Hit over .300 every month last season except for July when he hit .298.

7) Aramis Ramirez – I have him ranked very close to Sandoval, but you know that Ramirez will some time during the season. Since 2002, he has had over 550 at bats in only 3 of 7 years. Missed time with a dislocated shoulder last season but should be fine to start 2010.

8.) Chone Figgins – has steadily raised his walk rate the past few seasons, giving him more times on base and opportunity for stolen bases. One negative though is his stolen base success rate has been slowly dropping the last five years, from 79%, 77%, 77%, 72% to 71% last season.

9) Michael Young – power spike at age 32 brought him back to 2005 levels, so expect some regression in 2010. Puts up nice stats because he consistently gets 630+ at bats ever year except last season. As a career .302 hitter, he is a good asset for team batting average.

10) Gordon Beckham – will provide extra flexibility the second or fourth week in the season with his move to second base this year, depending on you fantasy baseball league rules. Spent a total of 233 at bats in the minor leagues before coming up to the Show. Average should trend up as he adjusts to major league pitching.

11) Ian Stewart – legit power but still struggles to make contact. Career minor league batting average of .293 but has come no where close to that in the majors. Upped his strikeout rate to a Mark Reynolds-esque 40% after the All-Star break. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting a meager .178 last season. Recent addition of Melvin More means there could be a platoon in the works.

12) Adrian Beltre – multiple injuries ruined his 2009 season and sapped him of his power. I would use his 2005 numbers as the baseline with a few more steals sprinkled in.

13) Alex Gordon – still waiting for him to live up to the expectations based on his minor league performance but so far it has not happened. Even though he was limited by injuries last season, it was nice to see that he kept his 2008 gains in his walk rate. With hype now suppressed, he is finally being drafted where he should have been in years past.

14) Jorge Cantu – even though power has fluctuated, RBI total has remained consistent and should continue to do so in 2010. Improved performance against left-handed pitching has helped to boost his batting average.

15) Chipper Jones – age is finally catching him up with. Project him for 425 at bats and consider anything more as gravy.

16) Kevin Kouzmanoff – should enjoy being away from Petco Park where he hit under .230 each of the last two seasons. Will be interesting to see if he is able to adjust to the Oakland A’s patient approach at the plate after never walking more than 32 times in a season in the major leagues.

17) Casey McGehee – moved into the starting lineup in June and never looked back. Not the greatest player defensively, but neither is top prospect Mat Gamel so McGehee should be good for 500+ at bats this season. Offers the added flexibility of also qualifying at second base.

18) Casey Blake – not a sexy pick and he is old, but still gets the job done every year. Should be solid once again in 2010 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

19) Jhonny Peralta -what happened to the power? Turned into a ground ball machine last year and the home runs disappeared. Should bounce back a little bit but probably not all the way to 20 home runs again.

20) Chase Headley – hit more home runs at home, but batted almost 100 points less. Should be able to add a few more home runs as he continues to develop.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be the top 20 outfielders.

This is the fourth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of shortstop. If you miss out on one of the top tier shortstops early, your options in the middle to later in the draft will offer you the potential to pick up some players with stolen bases but not much power.

This position features quite a few question marks as we head into fantasy baseball draft season. Will Jose Reyes rebound from surgery and still be able to steal 50+ bases? Can J.J. Hardy bounce back in a new environment after being demoted to AAA last season? Does rookie Ian Desmond get the chance to start at shortstop or does he start the season in the minor leagues?

Those of some of the questions to consider as you prepare for key players to focus in on. Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.

1) Hanley Ramirez – the number one shortstop and the number two pick overall in fantasy baseball drafts. The stolen bases are trending downward going from 50 to 35 to 27 the last three seasons but the five-category package at a hard position to fill solidifies his status as the second best  player.

2) Jimmy Rollins – even in an off year he still went 21-77-31. He gets 670+ at bats every year and will score a ton of runs in the Philadelphia Phillies batting order. There had to something wrong with him the first half of the season that was never reported with the stat line he put up. The numbers then returned to normal after the All-Star break as he went 14-43-15.

3) Troy Tulowitzki – much like Aaron Hill, he bounced back after a subpar 2008 and put up stats similar to his 2007 numbers.  His career 57% success rate stealing bases means he might not run as much going forward. His 20 steals last year were 13 higher than his previous best total

4) Jose Reyes – the boom or bust pick of the shortstop position. His current fantasy baseball ADP has him going at the middle-to-end of the second round making him a potential steal IF he returns to form, as he was a top 5 pick in fantasy baseball drafts in previous seasons. Coming back from surgery due to a torn tendon in his hamstring and he has had some hamstring issues in the past make him a risky pick. He will be worth watching closely in spring training to see how well he is running.

5) Derek Jeter – he must not have liked what he heard about his regressing defense after the 2008 season. His new workout in the off-season  I think played a part in him boosting his offensive numbers, coupled with a new stadium that is kind to hitters. Still showing no sign of slowing down at age 35.

6) Alexei Ramirez – solid numbers across the board in his second season as he improved his plate discipline from 18 walks and 61 strikeouts to 49  and 66 in 62 more at bats.

7) Miguel Tejada – showed no signs of easing up at age 35 and even boosted his numbers last year, adding eight doubles, 20 more RBI and tacking on an additional 30 points in batting average. Age, coupled with moving back to the American East where the division is stacked with good pitching should give Tejada’s numbers a slight decrease across the board.

8.) Jason Bartlett – where did the power come from? Went from a single home run in 2008 to 14 last year. A change in the batting order helped to account for the increase in numbers. Hit lead-off 218 times, where he hit half of  his home runs from after batting ninth in all of 2008.

9) Asdrubal Cabrera – provides added flexibility of qualifying at second base and shortstop. Look for continued growth in 2010; should be bumped up a few spots in dynasty leagues.

10) Elvis Andrus – wow, nice season as 21-year-old rookie where he put up similar numbers in both halves of the season.  When doing fantasy baseball projections, it is important to keep in mind position in the batting order as noted with Bartlett above. If Andrus ends up hitting second like he did part of the year in 2009, 40 stolen bases is a good possibility.

11) Yunel Escobar – the second best hitter in the Atlanta Braves lineup. Much more consistent in all categories than the next two players after him on my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.

12) Stephen Drew – struggled out the gate with an injury and never made up ground. His 2009 numbers look pretty much the same as 2007. When  I hear the name Drew, I just think of missed at bats. Another player that gets drafted much higher than he should based on name and “potential”.

13) J.J. Hardy – there was no hot streak in 2009 to carry him like he had in 2008 and 2007. After spending the end of the of the season in the minor leagues and traded to the Minnesota Twins in the off-season, Hardy should see an improvement in numbers, especially if he gets slotted second in the batting order. Of some concern to note is his strikeout rate, which has crept up 7 percentage points over the last two years.

14) Everth Cabrera – quite a jump for Cabrera, going from a Rule-V pick that had never played above Single-A,  to a solid shortstop for the San Diego Padres. Has some defensive issues but the team should let him work through them. An outside shot to lead all the shortstops in steals depending on the health of Reyes.

15) Alcides Escobar -  handled himself quite well in 125 at bats with Milwaukee, batting .304 with four steals. No real power to speak of but should provide solid batting average and stolen bases in his first full season.

16) Rafael Furcal – another shortstop getting drafted much too high. His back surgery last July seems to have robbed him of his wheels. Without the 25+ steals, he is just another guy.

17) Marco Scutaro – not too often you see guys in their mid-30′s become full-time starters and parlay that into a nice payday. Should be good for another season of slightly reduced numbers now with the Boston Red Sox.

18) Erick Aybar – add up his numbers from 2007 and 2008 and presto, you have his 2009 year. He has decent speed, but unfortunately he has not learned to steal bases correctly yet, as evidenced by his 65% success rate in the minor leagues and 59% rate in the Show.

19) Ryan Theriot – no power, but he is nice to own if you are looking for stolen bases late in your fantasy baseball draft.

20) Orlando Cabrera – assuming he has a starting job.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be third basemen.