Posts Tagged ‘David Wright’

More Home Runs Coming for David Wright in 2012?

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 31st, 2011

The New York Mets made a major announcement today that had little impact on news outlets, but could have a big impact for fantasy baseball owners that own Mets hitters. The team announced that they will be making changes to the dimensions of Citi Field in 2012 which they project could add roughly 25 more home runs to the teams offensive output at home. For power hitters like David Wright and Jason Bay, that could mean another three to six home runs at home per player, in addition to increased confidence which could impact other offensive categories as well.

Citi Field had produced the third least home runs per game in the National League ay 1.33 per game which was only surpassed by the stadiums in San Diego and San Francisco. The massive 16-foot high wall in left field is going away as the fence will now be only eight feet high across the entire outfield. Instead of being a pitchers park, the field should play more neutral with the changes in dimensions.

While I wouldn’t go overboard with increased projections for David Wright in 2012, I do think it gives him a little more upside when comparing him to other players when looking at average draft position come next March.This of course is assuming that Wright is back with the New York Mets next season and is not traded. Wright has hit 26 home runs on the road compared to 17 at home over the last two seasons.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 25th, 2010

In a fantasy baseball draft or auction, it is helpful to use average draft position reports along with tiered rankings in order to make sure you get a player you want from each group before there is a statistical drop off.

Here is a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for third base.

Tier 1:  rounds 1-2

1.  Alex Rodriguez
2.  Evan Longoria
3.  David Wright
4.  Mark Reynolds

Tier 2:  rounds 3-4

5.  Ryan Zimmerman
6.  Pablo Sandoval
7.  Aramis Ramirez

Tier 3:  rounds 5-7

8.  Chone Figgins
9.  Michael Young
10.  Gordon Beckham

Tier 4:  rounds 9-11

11.  Ian Stewart
12.  Jorge Cantu
13.  Chipper Jones
14.  Adrian Beltre

Tier 5:  rounds 15-20

15.  Kevin Kouzmanoff
16.  Mark DeRosa
17.  Casey McGehee
18.  Alex Gordon
19.  Casey Blake
20.  Jhonny Peralta
21.  Chase Headley
22. Edwin Encarnacion
23.  Troy Glaus

Tier 6:  bottom of the barrel

24.  Brandon Wood
25.  David Freese
26.  Scott Rolen
27.  Jose Bautista
28.  Garrett Atkins

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2010 New York Mets Team Preview

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2010

This is the third part our series of 2010 fantasy baseball team previews looking at the National League East. The team previews will include the projected batting order, projected rotation, rookies that could make an impact in 2010 as well as each players current ADP for a 15 team mixed fantasy baseball league.

2010 New York Mets Projected Batting Order:

1.  CF Angel Pagan (ADP ND)
2.  2B Luis Castillo  (ADP 311)
3.  3B David Wright (ADP 13)
4.  LF Jason Bay (ADP 25)
5.  1B Daniel Murphy (ADP 246)
6.  RF Jeff Francoeur (ADP 264)
7.  C Rod Barajas (ADP 404)
8.  SS Alex Cora (ADP ND)

2010 New York Mets Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  Johan Santana (ADP 44)
2.  John Maine (ADP 316)
3.  Mike Pelfrey (ADP 339)
4.  Oliver Perez (ADP 466)
5.  Jon Niese / Fernando Nieve (ADP ND / ND)

Closer – Francisco Rodriguez (ADP 79)
Handcuff – Ryota Igarashi / Kiko Calero

2010 New York Mets prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Jon Niese – SP
2.  Jenrry Mejia – RP
3.  Ike Davis – 1B
4.  Fernando Martinez – RF


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Boom or Bust – First Round – David Wright

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 2nd, 2010

In each round of your fantasy baseball draft, there is one player that could possibly provide a huge amount of value or else could far under perform your expectations and kill your team.

I like to call these type of players a boom or bust pick. Today we are going to examine David Wright who has been creeping into the first round in recent mock drafts to take a closer look at his numbers.

Here are his home run numbers for the previous seasons, breaking it down by home and away and the number of home runs he pulled compared to the number of opposite field shots.

Year TOT HR Home Away Pull Opp. Field
2009 10 5 5 8 2
2008 33 21 12 25 8
2007 30 16 14 17 13
2006 26 13 13 17 9

If you look at his location of home runs from the previous two seasons at Hit Tracker, his average distance of home runs was roughly the same, but it looks like he hit some much longer home runs in 2008.

2008-2009


Reasons to stay away:

1) Citi Field – the change in stadiums had an impact on Wright’s power last season in several ways. The longer fences plus the taller fences contributed to Wright losing an estimated six home runs in the first half of the season in an article by ESPN back July of last year. The field also changed Wright’s approach at the plate as he admitted in the same article to becoming a more gap type hitter than swinging for power. This is great for his batting average but it does not help him in the power department. It also affects him on the road as well as he is not going change swing mechanics depending on whether it was a home or road game so that is why you did not see a difference in his home or road splits for power last year.

The recent move by the New York Mets to lower the center field fence from 16 feet to eight could give Wright back a few home runs in 2010 but the rest of the ballpark was not affected so it is hard to imagine him rebounding to 30 home runs unless he changes his swing back to his 2008 form.

2) High strikeout rate – his strikeout per at bat rate went from 18.9% in 2008 to 26.2% in 2009. It could have been a combination of his new swing that did not allow him to get to certain pitches and / or the fact that he was pressing from playing in a lineup minus several key players out with injuries.

Reasons to get him:

1) He still has value despite the loss of power with his ability to hit for batting average and steal bases. But if his home run numbers stay below 20, and he steals 15 like he did in 2008, then he becomes a late second or early third round pick and not a player that should be drafted in the first round.

2) Have to hope that a healthy Jose Reyes plus the protection of Jason Bay around him gives him a chance for more RBI and a better selection of pitches to hit from.

Final Say:

I will be looking for any quotes from him in spring training to see if he talks about changing his approach at the plate back to his 2008 form. Otherwise it is hard to project him hitting him more than 20 home runs this year based on his home field and the change in his swing style.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball – The First Round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

There has been much debate over where a fantasy baseball league is won; either the first half of the draft, or the middle rounds, or some combination of through the draft and then making the correct pickups in free agency.

What often gets overlooked however is the first round. While you are getting a good player in the first round, history has shown that you are not always getting the best value in the first round.

If you look at the first round average draft position of 2009, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman all did not earn first round value in a 15 team league, which is a 47% bust rate.

It gives some pause for thought how much you are willing to take a chance on an injured player like a Brandon Webb or hoping a young player like Chris Davis finds his way, knowing there is a good chance your first round pick might perform in terms of value of a player going in the third or fourth round.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – the number one pick, although if you are a big believer in position scarcity (which is a separate debate) Hanley Ramirez could go in this spot as I have seen in several mock drafts. Pujols has managed to play through elbow problems since injuring it back in 2003 so that is the only slight risk to him.

2) Hanley Ramirez – you have to weigh how comfortable you are with having a lesser player at shortstop if you have the first pick and opt for Pujols. If you pass on Hanley at 1 or 2, you are missing out on Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes coming back in the second round. Your pick in the third round is too early for Derek Jeter but he will not make it back to you in the fourth round so your starting shortstop would be someone in the next tier of players then.

3) Alex Rodriguez – how good is he? He put up almost the same number of home runs and RBI as Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman last season and he did it in 140 – 170 less at bats. He ran more the second half of the season when his hip was feeling better so there is no reason he cannot steal 20 or more bases this season.

4) Chase Utley – scores 110+ runs, hits 30+ home runs and last year was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which gives him an 88% success rate in his major league career. Not bad for a guy that was coming back from hip surgery.

5) Ryan Braun – in 2009 among all outfielders was, first in runs scored, tied for second in RBI, third in batting average and tied for eighth in home runs. Only 26 so he still has a good chance to hit 40 home runs in the next few seasons.

6) Matt Kemp – had a nice jump in numbers that saw him hit eight more home runs and drive in 25 more RBI compared to 2008 and he did it in the exact same number of at bats. He also managed to put up those numbers despite hitting seventh and eighth for 250 at bats last year.

7) Ryan Howard – I don’t mind the slightly lower batting average to get the additional home runs and RBI that he consistently provides every season. Four straight seasons of 45+ home runs and 136+ RBI gives you a good head start on those two categories.

8.) Mark Teixeira – numbers took a jump once Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees lineup last season Hit .200 in April with three home runs and then went nuts in May with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. Took advantage of his new home stadium by slugging 24 of his 39 home runs there.

9) Evan Longoria – power continues to develop with 44 doubles and 33 home runs at the age of 24 last year. Despite being a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen bases in his major league career, not sure if he ever gets close to 20 with his comments this week about his hamstrings being affected by the turf at Tropicana field.

10) Prince Fielder – matched power numbers of Ryan Howard last year, but has not show the ability to do it yet on a consistent basis every season. His 2009 numbers compared to his 2008 season is the difference between him being a first round pick and a third round selection.

11) Matt Holliday – showed he could still function away from Coors Field in splitting the season between Oakland and St. Louis. A return to the National League and the familiarity with pitching for a full season should keep his numbers intact.

12) Miguel Cabrera – I like the batting average, but his power is less than the other first basemen ahead of him in the first round. Has also scored less than 100 runs in each of the last three seasons.

13) Jimmy Rollins – lack of power in 2009 in the first half and an unlucky BABIP killed his value. No reason for him not to bounce back in 2010. Hard to find shortstops that will score 115+ runs with 20+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases.

14) David Wright – high batting average plus his ability to rack up steals at third base still gives him value, even if he doesn’t hit 30 home runs again. I would put his home run total between 2008 and 2009 levels and consider anything above that as gravy.

15) Troy Tulowitzki – position scarcity plus power and speed make him an attractive option at the end of the first round. Needs to improve his stolen base success rate though if he is going to be allowed to keep running. Hit 90 points higher the second half of the season in 2009.

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The Daily Dirt for Wednesday

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 10th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Chase Utley delivered two solo home runs, including the game winning home run in the 11th inning to give the Philadelphia Phillies a 5-4 win over the New York Mets. Utley now has 15 home runs on the season with 41 RBI. Ryan Madson picked up his third save of the season, in place of the injured Brad Lidge. David Wright went 3-for-5 for the Mets with two stolen bases. Wright is now batting .354 with 16 stolen bases on the season. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Wendesday…

Hitters:

Mark Teixeira went 4-for-5 with two runs scored and delivered his 19th home run of the season. Teixeira is up to .296 on the season with 52 RBI, including 12 in his last 10 games.

Jose Lopez belted two home runs and collected three RBI, to give him 35 runs batted in on the season. Lopez has homered three times in his last four games, giving him eight home runs on the year.

Colby Rasmus went 2-for-5 with three RBI and slugged his 7th home run of the season. Rasmus has a nine game hitting streak that has raised his batting average 40 points during that time. Teammate Rick Ankiel went 3- for-5 with three runs scored and his fourth home run of the year. Ankiel has now driven in six runs in his last six games.

Alberto Callaspo went 4-for-4 and drove in four runs on a grand slam, giving him three home runs on the year. The home run ended an RBI drought for Callaspo going back to May 16th.

Willy Aybar went 2-for-3 with three RBI, including his fifth home run of the season. Aybar has homered twice with six RBI over his last three starts.

Bengie Molina went 2-for-5 with three RBI and hit his ninth home run of the season. It might be tough for Molina to get his batting average above .260 the rest of the season unless he turns his strikeout rate around. Molina’s strikeout total is currently on pace to double from 2008.

Catcher Chris Ianetta returned from the disabled list and went 0-for-2 for the Colorado Rockies. He should be safe to activate for your fantasy baseball lineup next week.

Pitchers:

Justin Verlander earned his seventh win of the season, tossing a complete game with one run allowed while striking out seven. Verlander, who has not lost a start in almost two months, currently leads the major leagues with 106 strikeouts.

Gil Meche hurled seven scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts to pick up his third win of the year. For Meche, it was his first victory in his last seven starts. He has now allowed three runs in his last 20 innings of work.

Felix Hernandez allowed one run in seven innings with five strikeouts to up his record to 6-3 on the season. Hernandez has allowed three runs in his last 28 2/3 innings.

Carlos Zambrano allowed one run in eight innings with three strikeouts in a no decision. Zambrano has allowed two earned runs in his last 21 innings. His counterpart Wandy Rodriguez allowed one run in seven innings with six strikeouts.

Aaron Harang pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings with two strikeouts in a no decision. The outing marked a second consecutive good start for Harang, as he had previously allowed 14 runs in his previous 17 1/3 innings.

Jair Jurrjens allowed two runs in six innings with seven strikeouts, but suffered his fourth loss of the season. It is the second loss already for the month of June for Jurrjens. who was a perfect 3-0 in May.

Recently traded Charlie Morton got the start against his old team the Atlanta Braves, making it through only one inning before being removed with tightness in his hamstring.

Closers:

Francisco Cordero blew his first save of the season, allowing two runs in the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals.

Chris Sampson is someone to keep an eye on in National League only fantasy baseball leagues. After picking up his third win Wednesday, Sampson is a perfect 3-0 with three saves and a 1.70 ERA. With the possiblity of Jose Valverde and or LaTroy Hawkins getting traded if the Houston Astros don’t improve their position in the standings, Sampson, could be in line for some saves the second half of the year.

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Fantasy Baseball – May Third Base Rankings

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 1st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Instead of using some complicated formula to review May statistics, here is a breakdown of the numbers for the month sorted by RBI, for third basemen.

Evan Longoria continues to pace third basemen, and at his current rate looks like a top half of the first round pick in fantasy baseball drafts next year. David Wright has the average and steals but no power as I discussed earlier here.

Finally an Andy LaRoche sighting after several years of hype, but it looks like he has sacrificed power for batting average, which is not a good thing for fantasy baseball owners. Willy Aybar has a chance for regular at bats with Akinori Iwamura out for the season. Missing the top 30 were Melvin Mora .260-11-1-6-1 and Garrett Atkins .148-7-0-6-0. This would mark the third straight year that Atkins’ numbers have declined although no one could have anticipated such a huge drop off.

RK PLAYER TEAM AB BA R HR RBI SB
1 Evan Longoria TAM 115 0.296 21 7 31 1
2 David Wright NYM 98 0.378 16 2 22 9
3 R. Zimmerman WAS 117 0.342 24 6 19 0
Mark Reynolds ARI 107 0.271 21 8 18 8
4 Casey Blake LAD 85 0.353 17 4 18 0
6 Alex Rodriguez NYY 77 0.260 11 7 17 0
7 Joe Crede MIN 68 0.265 9 6 16 0
Brandon Inge DET 102 0.235 15 5 15 0
8 Mark DeRosa CLE 103 0.291 18 3 15 0
10 Andy LaRoche PIT 94 0.330 13 2 14 1
Pablo Sandoval SFO 94 0.309 11 2 14 1
12 Chipper Jones ATL 77 0.312 12 3 13 1
Pedro Feliz PHI 97 0.289 9 0 13 0
14 Mike Lowell BOS 114 0.307 13 4 12 0
Willy Aybar TAM 72 0.306 15 3 12 0
K. Kouzmanoff SDG 98 0.214 7 3 12 1
17 Adrian Beltre SEA 116 0.250 13 3 11 2
Geoff Blum HOU 60 0.217 5 1 11 0
19 Scott Rolen TOR 83 0.289 14 1 10 1
Mike Fontenot CHC 74 0.216 4 1 10 2
Josh Fields CHW 90 0.233 6 1 10 1
Ian Stewart COL 64 0.141 8 4 9 0
22 Chone Figgins LAA 111 0.333 19 0 9 11
Mark Teahen KAN 99 0.273 12 3 8 0
24 Craig Counsell MIL 84 0.345 13 1 8 0
Michael Young TEX 107 0.364 12 1 8 2
Ty Wigginton BAL 68 0.250 5 2 7 0
Adam Rosales CIN 87 0.241 12 2 7 0
27 Wes Helms FLA 40 0.250 2 1 7 1
Emilio Bonifacio FLA 119 0.235 11 0 7 3
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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Sunday

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 1st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Adrian Gonzalez stayed scorching hot, hitting his 20th home run and driving in three runs. What is mind boggling to me is how he was only 12th in the league in walks heading into Sunday’s game. The four hitters batting behind him on Sunday had averages of .228, .236, .172, .209. Why would he not be walked every time he came up to bat? He has homered against every team he has played against this season except for the San Francisco Giants. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Sunday…

Hitters:

Mark Teixeira hit his 16th home run of the season and drove in all four runs for the New York Yankees on Sunday. He ends the week with three home runs and 10 RBI as he knocked in a run in 5 out of 6 games for the week.

Kevin Youkilis hit two solo home runs and scored three runs. Despite having nine home runs on the season, Youkilis leads the American League in  slugging percentage as well as on base percentage.

David Wright stole his 12th base of the season. Despite hitting .333, he is off to a slow start in the power department with only three home runs. I have to wonder if he is hiding an injury as two stats give me warning flags 48 games into the season. One, he is on pace for 178 strikeouts which would be 60 higher than his career high of 118 last season. Second, he has already been thrown out stealing seven times, which is more than each of the three previous three seasons when he was caught five times each year.

Ben Francisco went 2 for 3 and stole his ninth base of the season. Francisco is quietly putting together a nice season, and is now on pace for 18 home runs, 70 RBI and 32 steals.

Josh Willingham hit two solo home runs giving him nine on the season. He seems to enjoy hitting with no men on base, because despite having nine home runs, he only has 12 RBI on the season.

Carlos Pena looks to be locked in the home run mode as he continues to swing for the fences. Pena hit his 17th home run of the season, but continues to strike out at a high rate, making it tougher for him to boost his .231 batting average. Pena has 66 strikeouts on the year, good for a 204 pace.

Mike Cameron homered for the second consecutive day and now has 11 long balls on the season. Despite being the 20th player to reach the 250-250 home run – steal level, his stolen bases are a thing of a past in 2009. He has two stolen bases for the season and both of those came on opening day.

Brandon Phillips homered for the second straight day as he continues to play through the the injury to his thumb. Phillips is up to 9 home runs and 36 RBI on the season.

Adam Kennedy went 3 for 5 with three runs scored and hit two home runs to give him four on the season. Since the Oakland Athletics acquired Kennedy from the Tampa Bay Rays on May 10th for a player to be named later, Kennedy has hit .390 with four home runs, 15 RBI and five steals in 82 at bats.

Edwin Maysonet went 2 for 4 and is now hitting .450 for the Houston Astros. With Kaz Matsui on the disabled list, Maysonet should have some value in National League only leagues the next few weeks.

Scott Hairston hit his seventh home run of the season and stole his sixth base of the year. With Jody Gerut now out of the picture, I see a possible 20-20 season out of Hairston.

Torii Hunter blasted his 12th home run of the season and knock in two runs to boost his RBI total to 42. Hunter is currently on pace for his first 30-30 season of his career with 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases year to date.

Matt Kemp hit his sixth home run of the year and stole his 12th base of the season. Despite being slotted 7th in the batting order for the majority of the season, Kemp still is on pace to drive in close to 100 runs this year.

Pitchers:

Edwin Jackson hurled eight shutout innings with seven strikeouts to up his mark to 5-3 on the year. Jackson has allowed three earned runs or less in his last five starts, going 4-1 during that period.

It took him three starts but Kris Medlen finally picked up his first win of the season, allowing one run in six innings with nine strikeouts. The win most likely extended his stay in the rotation until Tom Glavine is ready to return.

Chad Gaudin allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings with nine strikeouts to notch his second win of the year. It was the first start this season for Gaudin where he did not walk a batter, after previously walking a minimum of three hitters in every start.

Jon Lester allowed one run in six innings with 12 strikeouts to pick up his fourth win of the season.  Despite an increase in his strikeout rate, Lester has seen opponents bat 50 points higher against him in 2009 and his home run rate is 2.8 times higher than it was in 2008.

Eric Milton allowed two runs in 5 1/3 innings with four strikeouts to improve his record to 2-0. The 33-year-old Milton has solidified the Los Angeles Dodgers 5th starter slot, and one could argue his three starts should make him the fourth starter ahead of Eric Stults.

Yovani Gallardo allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings with nine strikeouts to boost his record to 5-2. Heading into Sunday’s start, Gallardo had the lowest batting average against for starting pitchers in all of baseball at .193.

Closers:

A painful way to end the week for David Aardsma owners, as he allowed six base runners in 2/3 of an inning with three runs scored to blow his first save of the year.

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