by Todd Lammi
This is the eighth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the starting pitchers.
1) Tim Lincecum – totaled 260+ strikeouts for the second straight season. People worry about his size and that he might break down, but the pitching motion taught to him by his dad seems to be working out so far. Has replaced John Santana as the one pitcher that will go in the first round in fantasy baseball drafts.
2) Roy Halladay – has turned up the strikeouts the last two seasons boosting his K/9 ratio by two per game. Has won 16+ games four consecutive years with an offense not as good as the new one he will be playing for in Philadelphia. Also gets the benefit of moving from the American League East to National League East which should only help his numbers. Great chance that he gets his third 20 win season this year. To fully the realize the impact of what a move from the American League to the National League means, check out the numbers for Cliff Lee and Javier Vazquez last season.
3) Dan Haren – mirror seasons almost between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. Three consecutive years of almost 200 strikeouts and a tight range of numbers for his ERA and WHIP ratio. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters. As consistent as they come.
4) Zack Greinke – the mental part of his game finally caught up to the talent and a star was realized. A phenomenal season in 2009 but I don’t want to pay for a repeat that is not likely happening in 2010. Did not allow more than three earned runs in a start until the beginning of June. Let’s see what happens if he faces some adversity this season and how he copes with it.
5) Felix Hernandez – third straight season of falling ERA as he has now shaved a full two earned runs from his mark in 2006. High strand rate kept his ERA under three so expect some correction there. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters.
6) CC Sabathia – concerns about workload early in his career never materialized as he has been a workhorse every season. Best chance in the American League to crack 20 wins with the offense around him and a stud closer. Much better the second half of the season with a 2.74 ERA and a strikeout per inning.
7) Justin Verlander – a combination of lowering his walk rate by 1.5 per nine innings and boosting his strikeout rate by 2.8 per nine allowed him to edge out Lincecum for the strikeout title. Much better pitcher at home last season with 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Comerica Park vs. 4.04 and 1.26 on the road.
8.) Johan Santana – underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in September and is supposed to be ready for spring training. Can’t assume an automatic bounce back to 2007 as his strikeout was down the last two years upon moving to the National League which is not a good sign. Usually a move to the league with no designate hitter boosts a pitchers strikeout numbers. Watch his stats in spring training to see how he is performing.
9) Adam Wainwright – was death on right-handed hitters last year, holding them to a .217 batting average. Dominant after the All-Star break with a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP ratio. Should be good for more of the same in 2010 if his arm can handle the 100 inning jump.
10) Josh Johnson – really not that far off from his 2006 season when he was last healthy except with better command. Like Wainwright, had a 100 innings jump from 2008 to 2009. Does having undergone Tommy John surgery already preclude him from future injury risk? I guess only time will tell.
11) Jon Lester – HUGE jump in strikeout numbers, boosting his K/9 rate by 3.5. After an awful first two months of the season, he was dominant the rest of the way with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
12) Tommy Hanson – his .225 batting average against would have been seventh best if he had enough innings to qualify. Took some time to adjust to the major leagues the first half of the season. Flashed his stuff after the All-Star break with a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. Right-handed hitters had no chance against him, batting a meager .192.
13) Chris Carpenter – numbers are terrific but age (will be 35 in April) plus his injury history makes him less than reliable. Has spent time on the disabled list four straight seasons. May be worth owning only if he falls a few rounds in the draft or you can get him at a discount in an auction. Tough to own him at full price knowing the odds are stacked against you.
14) Cliff Lee – fantasy baseball ADP slightly higher than where I see him. Sure, he was a beast in Philadelphia, but now he is back in the American League. Before the trade, control in Cleveland was worse than 2008 with 1.30 WHIP in ‘09 vs. 1.11 in ‘08. Strikeout rate was also slightly down with 6.9 in ‘08 and 6.3 in ‘09 in American League. When is off, the numbers can be tough to stomach. Had five starts where he gave up six or more earned runs in a game.
15) Josh Beckett – numbers turn out fine at the end of the season, but always seems to have a month or two each year where he gets clobbered so keep that in mind if you own him for the first time. Set a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts in 2009. Has only manged to toss 200 innings or more in three of eight seasons.
16) Yovani Gallardo – despite missing all of 2008, turned in a good season in 2009. Win total held in check due to control issues and pitch count numbers that keep him from working deeper in games. Managed to make it to six innings or more in just 17 of his 30 starts. Splits seem to show that he wore down the second half of the season. Had a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half and went 4.56 and 1.45 after the All-Star break.
17) Matt Cain – got his head back in the game in 2009 after struggling with lack of run support in 2008. Had the lowest run support of any starting pitcher in 2008 and it affected him on the mound. Got an extra 1.24 runs per mound appearance in ‘09 and pitched much better. Strand rate kept his ERA low so expect a little regression this season.
18) Cole Hamels – not much difference in 2008 vs. 2009 except for being much more hittable by right-handed hitters. After allowing a .215 batting average in ‘08, that number rocketed up to .282 in ‘09. Much better after the All-Star break with a 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9 rate. First half featured elbow issues in March and an injured ankle in May that probably accounted for the higher numbers. No reason for him not to return to 2008 levels.
19) Jake Peavy – some risk to him, having thrown 200 innings in only three of six seasons. Loses the comfort of Petco Park which helped to surpress his ERA. Strikeout rate probably drops by at least one per game with the move to the American League.
20) Ubaldo Jimenez – how much the world has changed that a Colorado Rockies pitcher would crack the top 20 starters. Ground ball rate of 53% helps to limit some of the impact of Coors Field. Limits damage by keeping hits in the ballpark. Ranked seventh in home runs allowed in ‘09 and tied for second in long balls surrendered in ‘08.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers 21-40.
