by Todd Lammi
This is the second part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the group of starting pitchers ranked 21-40.
21) Clayton Kershaw – much like Yovani Gallardo, had struggles with control and made it through six innings in only 16 of 31 starts. Much better in second half of season when he posted 2.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a 10.9 K/9 ratio. Allowed only seven home runs in 171 innings. Won’t take the next step until he improves his command.
22) Javier Vazquez – current fantasy baseball ADP has him much higher as the 11th starting pitcher. People I guess are not adjusting his numbers with the move back to the much tougher American League East. I guess people also forgot what his line was the last time he pitched in New York, when he posted a 4.91 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. Still will be good for strikeouts and wins, but ERA and WHIP will will be much higher than it was last year.
23) Ricky Nolasco – Tumultuous first half that saw him sent down to the minor leagues for awhile. Much better after the All-Star break with a 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Improved strikeout rate to 10 per nine innings in the second half.
24) Chad Billingsley – first half was vintage Billingsley with 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Numbers blew up in July and September to skew the final totals. Expect a rebound back to 2008 levels.
25) Wandy Rodriguez – was dominant at home, posting a 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP versus 4.05 and 1.44 on the road, which was similar to his 2008 season as well. Really underrated in fantasy baseball terms as he’s passed over in fantasy baseball drafts for people with more name recognition. Good chance you will be able to land him a round or two later than you should.
26) Brandon Webb – underwent shoulder surgery in August. Started throwing in November and has not reported any problems or setbacks. As more news comes out in spring training, I would expect him to start slowly moving up owners’ draft boards.
27) Jair Jurrjens – despite his great 2009 campaign, a few smalls signs of concern. Ground ball rate dropped by nine percentage points, walk rate is still a little high at three batters per game and his ERA will be higher in 2010. On the positive side, he improved against right-handed hitters, limiting batters to a .212 batting average, which was an improvement of 48 points from 2008.
28) Ryan Dempster – numbers regressed slightly in 2009 as batters started to figure him out a little more in his second season as a starter. Improved his walk rate for a fourth straight season. ERA should be around the same in 2010 but WHIP ratio should go down a few ticks.
29) Brett Anderson – just 21 last season and showed improvement the second half of the year. Had practically the same number of innings pitched both halves; boosted his strikeouts by 22 in the second half and almost cut his home run rate in half. Keeps going higher in mock drafts ever week so a guy that started out as a potential sleeper pick is now to the point of being almost overrated with how much owners are moving him up their draft boards.
30) James Shields – became easier to hit in 2009 giving up an extra 23 points in batting average. First half of the season he had a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP ratio. Became prone to the long ball after the All-Star break, allowing 17 home runs in 90 2/3 innings and ERA rose to 4.67.
31) Jered Weaver – Was not able to maintain his excellent first half as he was hit hard after the All-Star break. Batting average against was 53 points higher in half two. Needs to build up endurance to be able to make it through 200 innings without impacting his performance later in the season.
32) John Lackey – not a lock for 200 innings after missing a month and half the last two seasons with injuries. His 2008 and 2009 seasons were pretty similar stat wise. Just know that wins and strikeouts have downside with the injury risk he carries.
33) Matt Garza – made some gains in 2009, boosting his strikeout rate by 2.2 per nine innings. Needs to improve his numbers on the road and outside of the division to make the next jump. ERA and WHIP at Tropicana Field were 3.24 and 1.20 versus 4.85 and 1.34 on the road. Went 6-3 against the American League East and was 2-9 versus the rest of the league.
34) Scott Baker – maintained his strikeout rate from 2008. Unlucky in first half with a low strand rate that accounted for the high ERA. Second half was much better with a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. WHIP should always be solid with his ability to limit walks.
35) Gavin Floyd – ERA and WHIP were pretty close in 2008 and 2009. Downside was the loss of six wins going from 17 down to 11. That’s what happens when you lose almost 2.5 runs per game of support. Did make a noticeable step forward in strikeouts. Bumped up his swing and miss percent of strikes by three percentage points in ’09.
36) Max Scherzer – move to American League means some of the gains he would of made in ERA and WHIP in second full season may now appear flat numbers wise. Will get his share of strikeouts; just needs to be a little more consistent from start to start to get to the next level.
37) A.J. Burnett – piles up strikeouts and will get wins with the New York Yankees, but the rising WHIP ratio hurts a fantasy staff. Despite being healthy the last two seasons, still has some injury risk to him after missing two months in 2006 and again in 2007.
38) Roy Oswalt – battled through back problems in 2009 and the stats suffered. Passed on surgery and opted for a new workout routine to strengthen his core muscles. Watch for news in spring training to see if he is fully healthy.
39) John Danks – ERA and WHIP were similar in both halves of the 2009 season, but strikeouts fell way of in second half as K rate per nine dropped by 2.4. Have to figure that the blister and circulatory problem he had in July affected him the rest of the year.
40) David Price – came alive after the All-Star break, with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP ratio. But what happened to the strikeouts? His 5.9 K/9 rate the second half was a far cry from his 9.0 rate in the minor leagues. Command dramatically improved in the second half going from seven walks per nine innings down to just 2.7.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers 41-60.
