In each round of your fantasy baseball draft, there is one player that could possibly provide a huge amount of value or else could far under perform your expectations and kill your team.
I like to call these type of players a boom or bust pick. Today we are going to examine David Wright who has been creeping into the first round in recent mock drafts to take a closer look at his numbers.
Here are his home run numbers for the previous seasons, breaking it down by home and away and the number of home runs he pulled compared to the number of opposite field shots.
| Year |
TOT HR |
Home |
Away |
Pull |
Opp. Field |
| 2009 |
10 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
| 2008 |
33 |
21 |
12 |
25 |
8 |
| 2007 |
30 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
13 |
| 2006 |
26 |
13 |
13 |
17 |
9 |
If you look at his location of home runs from the previous two seasons at Hit Tracker, his average distance of home runs was roughly the same, but it looks like he hit some much longer home runs in 2008.
2008-2009
Reasons to stay away:
1) Citi Field – the change in stadiums had an impact on Wright’s power last season in several ways. The longer fences plus the taller fences contributed to Wright losing an estimated six home runs in the first half of the season in an article by ESPN back July of last year. The field also changed Wright’s approach at the plate as he admitted in the same article to becoming a more gap type hitter than swinging for power. This is great for his batting average but it does not help him in the power department. It also affects him on the road as well as he is not going change swing mechanics depending on whether it was a home or road game so that is why you did not see a difference in his home or road splits for power last year.
The recent move by the New York Mets to lower the center field fence from 16 feet to eight could give Wright back a few home runs in 2010 but the rest of the ballpark was not affected so it is hard to imagine him rebounding to 30 home runs unless he changes his swing back to his 2008 form.
2) High strikeout rate – his strikeout per at bat rate went from 18.9% in 2008 to 26.2% in 2009. It could have been a combination of his new swing that did not allow him to get to certain pitches and / or the fact that he was pressing from playing in a lineup minus several key players out with injuries.
Reasons to get him:
1) He still has value despite the loss of power with his ability to hit for batting average and steal bases. But if his home run numbers stay below 20, and he steals 15 like he did in 2008, then he becomes a late second or early third round pick and not a player that should be drafted in the first round.
2) Have to hope that a healthy Jose Reyes plus the protection of Jason Bay around him gives him a chance for more RBI and a better selection of pitches to hit from.
Final Say:
I will be looking for any quotes from him in spring training to see if he talks about changing his approach at the plate back to his 2008 form. Otherwise it is hard to project him hitting him more than 20 home runs this year based on his home field and the change in his swing style.
