Here is the fifth article in the series for 2011 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. The two biggest names at this position that can have a big impact on your draft are Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval. One who had a career year while the other two suffered a dramatic decline in production.
If you are looking for steals late in the draft, there are a few players that will be able to swipe close to 20 bases, such as Erick Aybar, Cliff Pennington and Ryan Theriot.
I had Chipper Jones ranked as number 21 so I did not forget him on the list. I love Chipper and have owned him many years but at his age coupled with coming off an ACL injury and still up in the air whether he is ready for spring training, it is time to cut the chord on him. Every year fantasy baseball owners draft him thinking he is going magically get 500 at bats and each year he falls way short.
1. Evan Longoria – lost 11 home runs from 2009 but hit a couple extra double and 5 triples. Finally was caught stealing after going 16-for-16 in his first two seasons. Stole 13 of his 15 bases before the All-Star break.
2. David Wright – rebounded from his power outage in 2010 as his numbers were closer to 2008. Drop in batting average can be attributed partially to his jump in strikeout rate which was at 27%. Numbers dropped off the second half of the year as he hit .244, 70 points lower than in the first half and was just 4-for-8 in stolen bases.
3. Alex Rodriguez – father time is slowly started to catch up to A-Rod as he fell short of 525 at bats for the third straight season. Stolen bases were under double digits for the first time since 2002. Batting average fell for the third straight season and ended at a career low .270. With all that being said, he still ended up with 30 home runs and 125 RBI at age 35.
4. Ryan Zimmerman – batting average rose for the third straight season, putting him over .300 for the first time in his career. Lack of power at home caused him to fall short of 30 home runs, with just nine long balls in 71 games.
5. Jose Bautista – the biggest wild card in fantasy baseball drafts in 2011. Hard to project a guy that had only 59 home runs in his previous 1,754 at bats and then hits 54 bombs in 569 at bats as age 29. Then again,everyone in Toronto seemed to have a power surge last year almost. Hit 30 home runs in 265 at bats in the second half with a .287 batting average. Hit double digit home runs in four of six months last year.
6. Michael Young – enjoys the benefits of Rangers Ballpark where he hit 16 of his 21 home runs and batted 47 points higher. Numbers tailed off after the All-Star break as average dipped to .262 vs. 301 in the first half. The move to designated hitter on a permanent basis should help him stay healthy as he gets older, but it is a negative for keepers league owners as he will likely only qualify as a utility player in 2012.
7. Adrian Beltre – we have seen this story from Beltre before, with a huge season right before he becomes a free agent (see 2004 stats). Broke 100 RBI for the second time in his career and the 28 home runs were most since that 2004 season. Has a .306 lifetime average at Rangers Ballpark with 9 home runs and 34 RBI in 219 at bats.
8. Mark Reynolds – a rising strikeout rate that hit 42% left him little chance at the plate in terms of batting average. Still can hit the long ball when he connects but his batting average was a killer. Lack of time on the bases also impacted his stolen base total. Ended the season on a 5-for-64 note with 31 strikeouts.
9. Aramis Ramirez – a frustrating player to own due to the various injuries that he seems to suffer every year. Has played in more than 145 games only twice in the last six seasons. Started out slow the first half of the season, hitting .207 in 237 at bats. The second half of the season was vintage Ramirez when healthy, batting .276 with 15 home runs and 51 RBI in 228 at bats.
10. Pedro Alvarez – just look at his second half numbers and picture that over the course of a full season and your are looking at 25 home runs and 100 RBI. He was an RBI machine in the minor leagues so no surprise there. Either is the work he still needs to do on plate discipline which sets his ceiling for batting average likely at .280.
11. Casey McGehee – broke 100 RBI thanks to Prince Fielder having an off year hitting in front of him. Solid batting average with 20+ home run power but still seems to be somewhat undervalued in fantasy baseball drafts.
12. Pablo Sandoval – came out of the gate hot in April with a .368 average and three home runs but it was all down hill from there. Out of shape and was out of a job by the end of the season. Off-season reports are positive news but weight until he shows up camp for a true look to see if he has made any changes.
13. Ian Stewart – was on pace for 20+ home runs and 80+ RBI when injuries struck the second half of the season. With Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez in the mix, will likely sit against left-handed starters on most nights.
14. Scott Rolen - Rolen turned back the clock at age 35 as he hit 20 home runs for the first time since 2006. He ended the season on a power outage though, hitting only three home runs in 188 at bats, possibly as a result of back and hamstring injuries suffered in early July. Has not had 500 at bats in a season since 2006.
15. Chris Johnson – hit over his head from an average perspective as he is more a .270 hitter than a .300 one. With 13 walks and 73 strikeouts in 70 games after the break, he still has work to do on pitch selection.
16. Chase Headley – no improvement to speak of in his third season. Has hit in the .260′s every year with little power. Only positives were seven more steals and a few more runs scored thanks to an additional 67 at bats in 2010. Has not been able to figure out how to hit in PETCO Park where his average is .226 in his career vs. .296 on the road. If you are in a league with daily transaction, he has a little bit more value.
17. Placido Polanco – a solid hitter but little power at a corner sport makes him hard to own in fantasy baseball leagues. Hit just one home run the second half of the year in 293 at bats.
18. Danny Valencia – looked like he would have little value in 2011 as a light hitting third basemen and then jacked five home runs in September which made his overall line look a little better.
19. Casey Blake - 2010 marked the third straight season that Blake has hit less home runs at home than on the road. Average was he has been better at Dodger Stadium but the power part has been a different story. Nearing the end of the line now at age 37.
20. Kevin Kouzmanoff – average fell for the third straight season and the move away from PETCO did not help his power numbers as he only hit five home runs at home. Has shown no inclination to want to learn the strike zone.
