2010 Chicago Cubs Projected Batting Order:

1.  SS Ryan Theriot (ADP 244)
2.  RF Kosuke Fukudome  (ADP 368)
3.  1B Derrek Lee (ADP 80)
4.  3B Aramis Ramirez (ADP 59)
5.  CF Marlon Byrd (ADP 293)
6.  LF Alfonso Soriano (ADP 87)
7.  2B Mike Fontenot (ADP ND)
8.  C Geovany Soto (ADP 144)

2010 Chicago Cubs Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  Carlos Zambrano (ADP 167)
2.  Ryan Dempster (ADP 160)
3.  Randy Wells (ADP 314)
4.  Ted Lilly (starts on DL) (ADP 179)
5.  Sean Marshall / Tom Gorzelanny / Jeff Samardzija (ADP ND)

Closer – Carlos Marmol (ADP 134)
Handcuff – John Grabow

2010 Chicago Cubs prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Starlin Castro – SS
2. Jay Jackson – SP
3. Andrew Cashner – SP

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.

Overvalued:

It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.

Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

This is the second part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of closers ranked 16-30.

16) Trevor Hoffman – had his lowest ERA since 1998 so you know there is some regression coming. ERA and WHIP ratio aided by his improvement against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .222 average compared to .291 in 2008.

17) Frank Francisco – first season as full-time closer was a success outside of two trips to the disabled list which seemed to impact his second half numbers. Had a 2.28 ERA and .94 WHIP ratio the first half of the season. After the All-Star break, the ERA was 5.82 and the WHIP was 1.34.

18) Mike Gonzalez – had career high in innings pitched last season after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008. No doubt he can get the job done with a career ERA of 2.57 and 1.22 WHIP ratio. Question will always be how many innings does he get in before he gets hurt, with time on the disabled list four of the past five seasons.

19) Chad Qualls – good value based on his current fantasy baseball ADP. Knee ligament tear that ended his season in ’09 should not affect him in 2010. High ground ball rate plus good control means he should be solid as closer going forward.

20) David Aardsma – solid season on paper but I have some concerns going forward. High fly ball rate of 54% last season yet cut his home run per fly ball rate in half. If that regresses to the mean in 2010, his ERA jumps into the high three’s. Still has issues with command, walking 4.3 hitters per nine innings last year. Career WHIP ratio in the major leagues is 1.49.

21) Carlos Marmol – extremely hard to hit, but his inability to throw strikes makes his job as a closer far from safe. Walk rate jumped to 7.9 per nine innings last season, up from 4.2 in 2008. Like Aarsdma, Marmol is a fly ball pitcher and faces regression in his ERA after allowing only two home runs in 74 innings last year.

22) Bobby Jenks – ERA spiked due to nine home runs allowed after giving up 10 the last three seasons combined. Has been easier to hit the last two years with batting average against of .198 in 2007 rising to .230 in ’08 and to .250 last year. Questions about him are always going to revolve around his ablity to stay in shape.

23) Ryan Franklin – helped his ERA by allowing only two home runs after giving up 10 in 2008. Luck ran out after the All-Star break when his ERA was 3.33 and WHIP ratio was 1.70. Blew three of six saves in September.

24) Kerry Wood – first season in the American League did not go well for Wood as his home runs allowed more than doubled from the previous season and his control reverted back to 2007 level. Was much better the second half of the season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.32 WHIP ratio.

25) Brad Lidge – two seasons of extremes when looking at 2008 and 2009. Blew 11 saves last season after going a perfect 41 for 41 in 2008. Allowed 11 home runs and batting average against jumped to .301. Had surgery on his elbow in November and on his knee in January so it is questionable whether he will be ready for the start of the season. Possible that his knee injruy that bothered him in April and landed him on the disabled list in June was responsible for some of his issues last season.

26) Matt Capps – another closer who saw his home run total jump in 2010. After allowing five home runs in ’08, Capps gave up 10 in 2009. Walk rate also increased, allowing 2.8 walks per nine innings after walking only five batters in 53 2/3 innings in 2008. With only a one year contract with the Washington Nationals, there is a good chance that he gets moved at the trade deadline.

27) Leo Nunez – took the closer job away from Matt Lindstrom, but encountered some problems with the long ball, surrendering 13 home runs in 68 2/3 innings. Walk rate increased for the second straight season which offset his improvement in batting average allowed.

The following teams have multiple players in a battle for the closer position. The closer will most likely be determined at some point during spring training.

28) Toronto Blue Jays – Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg

29) Houston Astros – Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom

30) Pittsburgh Pirates – Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

With two weeks now in the books in major league baseball, lets review some of the bullpen situations from a fantasy baseball perspective.

Washington Nationals:

Current closer Joel Hanrahan could be out of a job after blowing consecutive saves against the Florida Marlins on Friday and Saturday. Saul Rivera got the chance to close on Sunday and he blew that as well. Rivera was sent to Triple-A after the game. Garret Mock has been recalled from Triple-A and could see a save opportunity, although he had a 17.18 ERA in the minors so far this year. Joe Beimel could also see save chances as he has been the one decent reliever so far this year in the Nationals bullpen. A dark horse candidate is Jason Bergmann who was also recalled from Triple-A on Sunday.

Colorado Rockies:

Two days after being named closer by manager Clint Hurdle, Manny Corpas pitching in the 7th inning in the blowout loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday allowed two runs in one inning, bumping his ERA up to 6.75. Recently replaced closer Huston Street has not been any better, currently sports a 9.64 ERA. In a perfect world, Street would have been the closer until July and then traded with Corpas taking over.  Taylor Buchholz might have been an option but is still on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained right elbow.  Jason Grilli could be next in line in Corpas fails to deliver when presented with a save opportunity.

Chicago Cubs:

Carlos Marmol – 1.35 ERA, got the save on Friday night and was rewarded by being brought into the game in the 7th inning on Saturday.

Kevin Gregg – 6.00 ERA, has not had a save since opening day, but is still the closer according to manager Lou Piniella.

Talent eventually will win out over stubbornness I have to believe in this case, but until Gregg blows a save or two, it looks like he is still the man.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Without doubt, the main closer is now Ryan Franklin. Manager Tony La Russa is trying to work Jason Motte into situations to be successful to get his confidence built back up. Recently recalled Chris Perez from Triple-A gives them another option in the bullpen, but for now, Franklin should see the majority of save opportunities.

Milwaukee Brewers:

Carlos Villanueva has not been the answer with a 9.00 ERA. Injured closer Trevor Hoffman is scheduled to pitch Tuesday night in Triple-A and again on Friday and if all goes well, he will be recalled the following week. Todd Coffey and Villanueva will battle for the eight inning role once Hoffman returns.

Baltimore Orioles:

George Sherrill remains the closer, but he has to keep on eye on Chris Ray. Sherrill has been getting saves, but his ERA and whip ratio make him less than an ideal closer to own. Ray has strung together three good outings in a row after two initial poor performances. Ray has struck out seven in his last 3 1/3 innings. Ray has not pitched on back-to-back days yet this season so when he does eventually take back the closer role, Sherrill will still see save chances.

Seattle Mariners:

Brandon Morrow has been perfect in his four appearances since blowing his first save. If you own Morrow, handcuff David Aardsma to him. If you don’t own Morrow, Aardsma could get you 5-10 saves the remainder of the season.