It has not been a fun winter for Los Angels Angels fans who heard rumors of potential Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano and Adrian Beltre signings. The team finally made a splash on Friday signing Scott Downs to a three-year, $15 million contract. The 34-year-old lefty will be added to the mix of bullpen candidates including Fernando Rodney and Jordan Walden as potential closers. My guess here is that Rodney starts as closer with Downs getting a handful saves and Walden getting a couple. It is crazy to think now that the going rate for middle relievers has jumped to $5 million plus.

On Thursday, the Baltimore Orioles finalized a trade with the Minnesota Twins, sending two minor league relief pitchers Brett Jacobson and James Hoey to the Twins for J.J. Hardy and utility infielder Brendan Harris. Hardy finally gives the Orioles a semi-decent shortstop and gives them a whole new left side of the infield with J.J. and recently acquired Mark Reynolds. The big winner in fantasy baseball is Alexi Casilla in Minnesota who will now take over as the starting shortstop. Casilla will be a goods play late in fantasy baseball drafts for teams looking for a middle infielder that can steal bases.

Remember, this is ranking JUST the free agent outfielders based off of the 2010 final outfielder fantasy baseball rankings.

1.) Carl Crawford: As I mentioned in the third base preview, the Angels are going to want to make a splash in free agency and I think it starts with Carl Crawford.  They have a need for an outfielder as well as a leadoff man making Crawford the perfect fit.   Other interested teams are the Red Sox and Yankees (obviously) and the sleeper team, the San Francisco Giants.  After winning the World Series the Giants may be able to open up their wallets a bit but I don’t think they’ll be able to justify spending over $100M while they are still paying for Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand and haven’t locked up their bread and butter, the young rotation.  Therefore, Crawford will sign with the Angels and produce like he always has racking up a .300 average, with decent power, runs, and a whole lot of steals.

2.) Vlad Guererro: If you watch any footage of the World Series it wouldn’t take long for you to  realize that Vlad shouldn’t go anywhere near the outfield, but for fantasy purposes he still qualifies there.  Vlad started strong in 2010 but finished with a mediocre 2nd half and postseason performance, hurting his offseason leverage.  Since there is a deep DH market this year I think Vlad will have to settle for a similar one-year deal that he signed last offseason.  Familiarity will win out in this as the Rangers will resign Vlad in their attempt to return to the World Series.  Vlad’s 2nd half is a little disconcerting but remaining in Texas is the best situation that Vlad owners could hope for.

3.) Jayson Werth: The Phillies have pretty much made it public that they won’t be signing Werth and instead they are handing the job over to Domonic Brown.  Brown may be a nice sleeper for next year but Werth has been nothing but fantasy gold since joining the Phillies.  Over the last three years Werth has averaged a .279 batting average, 29 homers, 84 RBI, 92 runs, and 18 steals, fulfilling his duty as a true 5 category star.  Teams that lose out on Carl Crawford will likely turn to Jayson Werth and right now that looks like the Red Sox and Tigers.  In the past previews I mentioned that Victor Martinez will sign with the Tigers and that the Red Sox may lose out on Adrian Beltre.  If that’s the case it’s unlikely that the Tigers will sign Martinez and Werth and it’s unlikely that the Red Sox will let Beltre walk without replacing his production somewhere.  Therefore, I think the Red Sox sign Jayson Werth.  Leaving Citizens Bank, the NL and Phillies lineup will hurt Werth a little but moving to Fenway should help mitigate that.  I can’t speak for how Werth will do as he approaches his late 30′s but for now Werth’s value should remain unchanged.

4.) Scott Podsednik: This speedster declined his portion of the mutual option with the Los Angeles Dodgers and became a free agent.  Crawford and Werth are great free agent options but after them Podsednik is probably the best remaining OF on the market as most of the others are more DH-types.  The Dodgers are rumored to still be interested in signing him but Podsednik clearly wants more than the $2M that he declined.  The Giants, who are also interested in Crawford, have a hole in LF that they’d like to plug without relying on formally released DHs  like Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen or Cody Ross.  Therefore, I think that the Giants will sign Podsednik.  Podsednik’s fantasy value relies solely on playing time so he can accumulate steals, and if he’s a starter (which he should be in a weak outfield class) you shouldn’t hesitate in drafting Podsednik.

5.) Manny Ramirez: This is where we start the DH portion of our outfield preview, but like Vlad these guys will qualify at OF in most fantasy baseball leagues.  One of the great hitters of our generation, Manny has seen his value go in free-fall mode as he’s been suspended for steroids and struggled to stay on the field.  However, even in his tarnished state teams will be interested because .400 OBP hitters just don’t grow on trees.  Oakland usually has a revolving door at DH each year (Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jason Giambi, Jack Cust) and this year I think they sign Manny to fill that role.  The A’s have a great young rotation but to be like their foes over the bay in San Francisco, they’ll need to find some power production (a la Aubrey Huff) and Manny can bring that to them.  In terms of his value, as long as Manny is playing every day he’s going to hit, and a DH role will enable that giving him solid value for where he’ll likely get drafted.

6.) Magglio Ordonez: The Tigers are certainly interested in retaining Magglio Ordonez but they also are linked with many other free agents (Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, etc.) and may let Magglio slip through the cracks.  The Blue Jays and Rays will also certainly be interested in Magglio as their DH and I think Magglio will be headed towards the AL East.  The Rays are looking to shed some payroll (rumors of trades with Upton, Garza, Shields) so it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to win a bid for Magglio, so I see him playing for the Blue Jays next year.  Magglio’s production when healthy shouldn’t be in question, he’s a sure .300 hitter with some decent pop, but it’s the staying on the field that will always be the problem with him.

7.) Johnny Damon: Damon is likely to leave the Tigers, but he shouldn’t be moving too far as he’ll likely be staying in the AL Central as a DH.  I could see the Royals taking a shot on Johnny Damon for him to return to his old team or the White Sox who last year realized the problems of not having a legitimate DH, hello Mark Kotsay!  While the story of Damon returning to the Royals and getting 3,000 hits would be nice, I think their young revolution will win out and that the White Sox will sign Damon.  US Cellular field isn’t the bandbox for lefties that Yankee Stadium is, but it’s certainly a very homer friendly ballpark and if Damon goes there expect him to hit more than the 8 HR that he had last year.

8.) Jermaine Dye: Jermaine Dye didn’t play last year but has said that he’s stayed in shape and is looking  to pull a “Jim Edmonds” and return after a year off.  He’s open to playing OF or 1b for a contender and I’m assuming DH as well.  Dye can get on a team if he’s willing to lower his demands of last year.  He may have trouble finding a contender or a non-DH spot, but I believe Dye can find a team this offseason.   If the Tigers focus on the big names and let others slip, they could turn to Dye.  The Mariners desperately need a hitter but won’t spend much money, making Dye a possible fit there as well.  Dye can still hit for power, but with the uncertainty involved in his situation (and many of the other lower tier OF/DHs) it’s hard to predict if he’ll get a big enough chance to get on fantasy managers’ radar.

Other free agent outfielders:

Marcus Thames
Pat Burrell
Austin Kearns
Eric Hinske
Jose Guillen
Rick Ankiel

Instead of using some complicated formula to review May statistics, here is a breakdown of the numbers for the month sorted by RBI, for outfielders.

Who needs Manny Ramirez? Juan Pierre was 12th among outfielders with 18 RBI in the month of May. Gerardo Parra (#23) seems to have successfully made the jump from AA to the major leagues with little problems. Although he does not have much power, think 10 home runs to 15 home runs max, he will hit close to .300 and drive in runs. Carl Crawford put up staggering numbers in May, with .355-28-3-15-21.

Nick Swisher has slowed down after his big April, with a line of .150-9-3-10-0 in May. Daniel Murphy has not been able to take advantage of the absence of Carlos Delgado, posting .176-8-3-10-0. Jordan Schafer was ticketed for Triple-A after going .158-8-0-5-1 with 40 strikeouts in 101 at bats. Dexter Fowler has struggled the second and third time around the league as pitchers adjusted, going .237-10-0-3-2.

There is a secret club that has been forming in major league baseball. Not a lot of people know of its existence except for its members. If you have a member of this club on your fantasy baseball team, it could help explain why your team is low in the home run category. Much like the representing of the zip code was all the rage a few years ago, the new rage in 2009 is the 04 club. As in, hey David Ortiz, how many home runs do you have this season? I am 04 the season. Here is a look at the some of the members of the current club…

David Ortiz, zero home runs, 12 RBI, .220 average. Ortiz missed seven weeks last season with a wrist injury and has not looked like the same player since. Yes he did hit some home runs in September and in spring training, but with his build and age, the power could go quickly. It is funny to see his projected stats on ESPN, zero home runs and 85 RBI. Of course I don’t expect him to end the season with zero home runs, but I think the expectation of him hitting 30-35+ should be tempered.

Bobby Abreu, zero home runs, 11 stolen bases (2 Friday night), .356 batting average. The steals are a nice surprise, he only had one last year through the month of April with three home runs. Now at age 35, the power expectation should be the mid teens.

Carl Crawford, zero home runs, 10 stolen bases, .284 batting average. The stolen bases were expected to rebound after he battled hamstring injuries last season. At the age of 27, some thought this was the year he was going to finally hit 20 home runs, but it does not appear that way. He had two home runs in the month of April last season.

James Loney, zero home runs, 16 RBI, .309 average. His numbers in 2007 with 15 home runs in 344 at bats set the wrong expectations for fantasy owners. The 13 home runs he hit last season were more in line with realistic expectations. It is tough to roster him at a power position like first base with his lack of power. He had two home runs in the month of April last season.

Adrian Beltre, zero home runs, 10 RBI, .213 batting average. Has gotten off to a slow start so far this season. Nothing out of the ordinary when checking his various stat lines compared to years past. He has had shoulder problems in past years and back in March had complained of a sore shoulder so that could be affecting him. He had five home runs a year ago at this time.

Miguel Tejada, zero home runs, 4 RBI, .304 average. He suffered a drop in power last season and it looks like it is not coming back. At age 34, it looks like his run as a power hitting middle infielder is over. Three of his four RBI he plated in one game. He had four home runs through April last season.

Jhonny Peralta was a member of the club until he hit his first home run Friday night. It was not for a lack of effort though, as he has went down on strikes 26 times in his 81 at bats this season.