by Todd Lammi
This is the sixth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the top 20 outfielders. Before I get a flood of emails from readers, I will tell you that Ichiro Suzuki is not in the list, so no, I did not miss him. I see a lot of people are drafting him high as he has a current fantasy baseball ADP of 42 and is the 10th outfielder being selected.
To me, he is one of those people that are drafted based on his name and not necessarily his value. I will shows you my projections for two players and you decide how much difference there is.
Player A 95 runs 8 home runs 65 RBI 24 steals .295 avg.
Player B 90 runs 7 home runs 46 RBI 29 steals .318 avg.
Player A is Denard Span who has an ADP of 123 and is currently going 81 picks after Ichiro, who is Player B.
With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the players rank.
1) Ryan Braun – made small gains in plate discipline which was nice to see in his second year. Has roughly the same stats as Chase Utley, only difference is the position scarcity which puts Utley number four overall and Braun number five.
2) Matt Kemp – fell just short of the 30-30 club in 2009 and should be ready to break that barrier this year. Drove in over 100 runs despite batting seventh or eighth for 41% of his at bats.
3) Matt Holliday – when it was all said and done, put up similar stats to the year before in Colorado. Should continue to post stats long the same lines now back in the National League with St. Louis.
4) Jacoby Ellsbury – put in a nice sophomore season, stealing double figure bases every month except for August when he stole eight. Should score 100 runs or more every season in the Red Sox lineup. Has improved his stolen base percentage since reaching the major leagues, as he now as a career 85% success rate.
5) Carl Crawford – 2009 numbers returned to 2007 levels after injuries derailed his 2008 season. Went crazy on stolen bases in the first-half of the season with 44 bags, but only stole 16 after the All-Star break and was caught nine times.
6) Jason Bay – looks like he become more home run conscious last season as his strikeout rate went up almost seven percentage points. Showed he could handle playing in a big market environment. Now the question is whether he can handle the dimensions of Citi Field.
7) Justin Upton – turned in a 20-20 season at the age of 22. Much more patient at home than on the road with 37 walks compared to 18 in similar number of at bats. Still has power upside into the 30 home run range.
8.) Grady Sizemore – elbow and abdominal injuries wrecked his 2008 campaign. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting under .225 three of the past four years. Set your expectations against his 2006 season, with less runs and a lower batting average.
9) Jayson Werth – exploded at age 30 in his first season as a full-time starter. The at bats were the most he has had in a season since 2002, when he split time between Triple-A and the Toronto Blue Jays. Power should regress a little bit but the stolen bases should continue thanks to a 89% career success rate.
10) Nick Markakis – two straight seasons of declining stats in home runs and stolen bases, which is not the right direction to be trending when you are only 26 years old. Still has solid stats and has hit 40+ doubles the last three seasons so there may be a few more home runs lurking.
11) Adam Lind – turned in a monster power season with 46 doubles and 35 home runs. Stats were solid all around; every month of the season, home vs. road and lefty vs. right pitching.
12) Nelson Cruz – numbers would have been even better if not for an injury last season that kept him under 475 at bats. I have him ranked higher than his current fantasy baseball ADP so I think there is draft value here. Numbers were in line with his pro-rated line from the end of the 2008 season. Steals were an added bonus, but not out of the blue as he had 24 in ‘08 at Triple-A.
13) Curtis Granderson – will enjoy hitting in Yankees stadium for half of his games. Needs to improve against left-handed pitchers to get his batting average back up. Hit only .183 in 180 at bats with nine RBI against southpaws.
14) Andre Ethier – gradual increase in power the last two years although part of the jump in home runs was just due to more at bats. Average dropped as he had trouble with lefties, batting only .194 in 165 at bats.
15) Manny Ramirez – was on fire in April hitting .372 and then was suspended for PED use. Put up so-so numbers upon his return and hit 10 home runs in 231 after the All-Star break. Will be 38 in May so I would not count on a return to over 30 home runs again.
16) Adam Dunn – as consistent as they come in power with close to 40 home runs and 100+ RBI each season. You know his batting average is going to be in the .240 – .260 range so you will need to offset it with other people in your lineup. Offers the added bonus of qualifying at first base as well this season.
17) B.J. Upton – gave back the gains in his walk rate from 2008. Second straight year of almost 30 point drop in batting average. Went on a tear in June hitting .324 with five home runs, 22 RBI and 14 steals; then disappeared for the rest of the season. Stole 31 bases in 81 games and then managed to only swipe 11 after the All-Star break. Still have to hold out hope that he turns things around at age 25 and gets back to his 2007 numbers.
18) Carlos Lee – fifth straight season of 100+ RBI. Disappointing to see him score almost the same number of runs as 2008 despite an additional 188 plate appearances. A number that does not figure to get any better after losing Miguel Tejada from the lineup. The days of his double digit steals seem to be over.
19) Shin-Soo Choo – numbers in line with pro-rating his 2008 stats. Has the speed to go 20-20 for the next few seasons. Solid batting average and an overall ADP of 69 makes him a nice value in the fifth or sixth round.
20) Bobby Abreu – you have to love the consistency that Abreu brings to the table, driving in 100+ RBI in seven straight seasons and scoring no less than 96 runs during that time period. His lowest at bat total in the last 10 years was 546 back in 1999. Now at age 36, he still should be good for another couple of years.
The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.
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- Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
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- Expanded player rankings for all positions
- Ages for all players as of opening day
- Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
- The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will outfielders 21-40.
