Posts Tagged ‘Billy Wagner’

2010 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Relief Pitchers

Here is a look at my 2010 final fantasy baseball rankings for relief pitchers. These rankings base ERA and WHIP on innings pitched and not just a round number so player A who pitchers more or less innings with the same ratio as player B will be ranked differently.

1. Billy Wagner – his last year before retirement was a good one as he finished as the number one closer in fantasy baseball. No doubt that he could have still gotten it done for a few more years if he wished to keep playing. His 104 strikeouts were the most since 2003. His ERA and WHIP were the lowest they had been since 2005. His seven wins tied a career high set back in 1997.

2. Heath Bell - 6 wins and 40+ saves for the second year in a row makes him the top fantasy closer heading into 2011. Slightly raised his strikeout rate and allowed only one run home run in 70 innings which helped keep his ERA under 2.00.

3. Brian Wilson - edged out Bell to capture the saves crown with 48 for the San Francisco Giants. Kept his walk rate lower for the second straight year while getting a few more strikeouts.

4. Rafael Soriano - won the American League saves title with 45. Had no problem in his first year as closer in Tampa Bay, converting all but three saves with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Will be looking for a new home in 2011 as he will likely cost too much for Tampa Bay to bring back.

5. Carlos Marmol - still walks too many hitters but he gets away with it because he is unhittable when he is in the strike zone. Held opposing hitters to a .147 batting average while striking out 138, an increase of 45 punch outs from 2009.

6. Neftali Feliz – took over as closer for Frank Francisco the second week of the season and dominated, converting 40 of 43 save opportunities. Still has some work to do when pitching at home where his ERA was three times higher versus on the road, 3.73 vs. 1.27.

7. John Axford – replaced Trevor Hoffman as closer in Milwaukee at the end of May and converted 24 of 27 save chances. Was better in the second despite blowing three saves with a 1.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

8. Joakim Soria – finished second in the American League in saves with 43. Numbers were right in line with his 2008 season except he was slightly easier to hit, though a .216 batting average against is nothing to sneeze at.

9. Hong-Chih Kuo – took over as closer for Jonathan Broxton and saves 12 of 13 games. Held opposing hitters to a .139 batting average while recording a 1.20 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP.

10. Mariano Rivera – his 33 saves were the lowest total since 2007. Struck out less than one batter per inning for the first time since 2006. ERA and WHIP both still solid at 1.80 and 0.83. Still in question whether he returns for the 2011 season at age 41.

11. Matt Capps – he seemed destined to be out of the closer role by mid season before the year began, but then he pitched well in Washington and was even better when he went to Minnesota. Has increased his save total now for three straight years.

12. Francisco Rodriguez – it is hard to believe he ranked this high after missing the last month and a half of the season. Managed to drop his walk rate and keep the long ball in check, leading to a 2.20 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

13. Jonathan Papelbon – his seven losses were almost as many he had in the previous three years combined. Walk rate and home run rate slowly creeping up. Numbers after the All-Star break not too pretty, with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. If he is back in Boston in 2011, the leash will be short with Daniel Bard waiting in the wings.

14. Chris Perez – ERA dropped from previous seasons as he was much better at keeping the ball in the park. Pitched very well after the break, converting 16 of 17 saves with a 0.63 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP.

15. Ryan Franklin – ERA spiked as the gopher ball returned in 2010, with seven allowed in 65 innings. Drastically cut his walk rate which helped his WHIP stay close to 1.00.

16. Brian Fuentes – numbers wise he has shown that he was a better pitcher in Colorado. Two years in the American League, plus his age (35) has started to raise his stats in the wrong direction. Will be looking for a new home in 2011 as a free agent this winter.

17. Andrew Bailey - ERA and WHIP were nice, but strikeouts and saves were kept in check due to injuries. Was able to reach almost the same amount of saves as in 2009 despite 21 less appearances.

18. Leo Nunez – stats were similar to 2009 despite losing his closer role in Florida at the end of the year to Clay Hensley. ERA was half a run lower as he curtailed his gopheritis from the year prior. Fell apart in August with a 9.31 ERA and a 2.48 WHIP but finished strong, allowing two runs over his final 11 innings with 12 strikeouts.

19. Francisco Cordero – his eight blown saves were the most he has had since 2006. Skills starting to decline at age 35 as he struck out less then a batter per inning for the second straight season. Might face some pressure from Aroldis Chapman for the closer role in 2011 if they leave the youngster in the bullpen.

20. Jose Valverde - Valverde was humming along nicely the first half of the season with a 0.92 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP before the wheels fell off. Was hit hard in July and had the flue plus an abdominal strain in August that left him with a second half ERA of 6.38 and a WHIP of 1.71.

The Closer Report – week 4

Here is a look at the closer report for week 4. It contains all of the most recent closer news, plus the current closers and the current handcuffs.

Fantasy baseball owners have to be happy with Arizona Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch that he is a patient man. Also it helps that everyone has in the D-Bakcs bullpen has been getting bombed as well so Chad Qualls was able to keep his job as closer for the time being. He responded by picking up two clean saves in his last two outings so it keeps him in the role for another week at least.

While walks by a starting pitcher can be a killer, if they allow a big inning, it can usually be smoothed out over the course of a five or six inning start. As a closer however, walks are going to lead to big innings and an eventual loss of job. Here is a look at some of the current closers with high walk rates just a few weeks into the fantasy baseball season.

Matt Capps was walked six in 12 innings, leaving him with a WHIP of 1.50. Jonathan Papelbon has struggled with his control in Boston, walking eight against seven strikeouts in 10 innings, giving him a 1.50 WHIP as well. Chris Perez may find it difficult to keep Kerry Wood from taking back the closer role unless he improves his control, with six walks allowed in 6 2/3 innings. Bobby Jenks, whom it seems is always on the verge of losing his job every season, has given six free passes in eight innings and has a WHIP of 1.75.

What do Cla Meredith, Darren Oliver, Tim Wood, Jeremy Affeldt, Ryan Perry, Burke Badenhop all have in common with Billy Wagner and Jonathan Broxton? Each of them have one save through the first three weeks of the season. If you are looking for someone to target in trade in the closer role, Wagner and Broxton should be at the top of your list. Saves can run in streaks and each of them could easily rack up three or four in a week. Any other owner that discounts their value because they only have one save so far this year is someone you should be talking to.

Team Closer Handcuff
BAL Jim Johnson Cla Meredith, Mike Gonzalez (DL)
BOS Jonathan Papelbon Daniel Bard
CHW Bobby Jenks Matt Thornton
CLE Chris Perez Jensen Lewis, Kerry Wood (DL)
DET Jose Valverde Ryan Perry
KC Joakim Soria Josh Rupe
LAA Brian Fuentes Fernando Rodney
MIN Jon Rauch Matt Guerrier
NYY Mariano Rivera Joba Chamberlain
OAK Andrew Bailey Brad Ziegler
SEA David Aardsma Brandon League
TB Rafael Soriano Grant Balfour
TEX Neftali Feliz Frank Francisco
TOR Kevin Gregg Jason Frasor
AZ Chad Qualls Juan Gutierrez
ATL Billy Wagner Takashi Saito
CHI Carlos Marmol John Grabow
CIN Francisco Cordero Arthur Rhodes
COL Franklin Morales Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street (DL)
FLA Leo Nunez Burke Badenhop
HOU Matt Lindstrom Brandon Lyon
LAD Jonathan Broxton Ramon Tronosco
MIL Trevor Hoffman LaTroy Hawkins
NYM Francisco Rodriguez Pedro Feliciano
PHI Ryan Madson Danys Baez, Brad Lidge (DL)
PIT Octavio Dotel Brendan Donnelly
STL Ryan Franklin Jason Motte
SD Heath Bell Luke Gregerson
SF Brian Wilson Sergio Romo
WAS Matt Capps Tyler Clippard

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Closers (Part I)

by Todd Lammi

This is the ninth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the closers. This is the most volatile position on your fantasy baseball team despite having the smallest category impact compared to other spots on your roster.

Each year there are usually 10 or more people that did not start the season at closer that end up getting a good amount of saves. That means that roughly 1/3 of the major league baseball teams are going to have closer issues. This makes the top tier of closers that much more valuable for their dependability and consistency. It also means once the top tiers of closers are gone, you don’t need to chase saves because there is a good chance multiple people  from the middle to low tier is going to lose their job that you draft, and / or you are going to be able to get extra saves through free agency during the season.

With that said, let’s examine the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 1-15.

1) Jonathan Broxton – dominant first year as closer, highlighted by 114 strikeouts and a .165 batting average against. Strikeout value pushes him to the top of the closer list.

2) Joe Nathan – 2008 and 2009 seasons were pretty identical except for a few more saves and a couple of more home runs allowed that boosted his ERA up.

3) Jonathan Papelbon – numbers look okay on the surface, but underneath stats give me some pause. Reverted back to fly balls ways like 2007. Of course the higher fly ball percentage means there is more of a chance for home runs to be surrendered.

4) Mariano Rivera – keeps getting older and every year people question will this be the year his performance finally drops off and every season he answers the bell. I predict he answers the bell once again in 2010.

5) Joakim Soria – shoulder problems and time on the disabled list kept his numbers down, except for his strikeout rate which jumped 2.9 per nine innings.

6) Francisco Rodriguez – three straight seasons of walk rate going up and strikeout rate going down. Second half was brutal with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP ratio.

7) Andrew Bailey – was a starter for three years in the minors. Spent some time as a reliever in Double-A in 2008 and then again the in Arizona Fall league. Reliance on cutter seems to suit him better as a closer.

8.) Heath Bell – throttled right-handed hitters, holding them to a .138 batting average  which was 116 points better than 2008. Surrendered zero home runs in the first half but then gave up three long balls after the All-Star break which jacked up his ERA.

9) Jose Valverde – missed a month and half of the early part of the season on the disabled list with a strained calf. Second half stats were back at his elite level with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP ratio.

10) Huston Street – lost his job as closer in April and once he got it back he was lights out converting 35 of 37 save opportunities. Stats were similar to his 2007 year. New contract extension gives him stability as the Colorado Rockies closer.

11) Brian Wilson – lowered his bating average against by 40 points and controlled home runs better in 2009; result was a 1.88 drop in ERA. Was better in the second half of the season with a 1.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP ratio.

12) Francisco Cordero – 2009 ERA and WHIP ratio look good on paper, but of concern is the drop in the strikeout rate of 2.2 per nine innings. Has been easier to hit by right-handers the last two seasons so expect some regression for his ERA in 2010.

13) Billy Wagner – came back from Tommy John surgery and looked good in a small sample size at the end of 2009. Good enough that he landed the closer job for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have some options in the bullpen to close games out so there will be some innings and saves he loses out on, even assuming full health.

14) Rafael Soriano – has had a big jump in his strikeout rate over the past two seasons, increasing his rate by 3.3 per nine innings. Injury history knocks his value down a few spots after spending time on the disabled list in three of the past five seasons.

15) Brian Fuentes – left Coors Field and somehow got worse. Possible combination of age plus the move to the American League impacted his numbers. Strikeout rate had a big drop going down by 4.3 per nine innings from 2008.

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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers 16 – 30.

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