This is the second article in the series examining the current 2011 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for the first base position. The data used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system which has 15 teams per league in a mixed format with two catchers needed per team.
The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as first basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.
I still find it hard to fathom Paul Konerko going in the 5th round in 15 team leagues. Not sure why everybody is so intent on paying for last year’s performance when 2011 is a whole new season. Last year he was going in rounds 11-15 in fantasy baseball drafts and now after hitting 39 home runs (the most he has hit since 2005) and turning 36 in March, he is suddenly a 40 home run hitter? That is not the way you win fantasy baseball leagues by paying for performance from the previous season.
Let’s compare two players from 2009-10 and see if you can guess which player is which
Player A (2009) 78 runs 21 HR 93 RBI .301 average
Player B (2010) 72 runs 19 HR 85 RBI .273 average
Really not too much difference between the two players outside of batting average, yet player A has an ADP that is six rounds higher. Player A is of course Billy Butler using his 2009 season which was better than his 2010 year and player B is Gaby Sanchez. I am not saying that Sanchez has to be drafted where Butler is, but rather Butler is going a little bit higher than he maybe should be with similar players available later in the draft.
Butler hit 51 double in 2009 and the thought was some of those double would turn into more home runs in 2010 and he ended up hitting six fewer bombs, while hitting 45 doubles. Even if you were to give the most optimistic of projections in order to justify where he is being drafted, you would have him around 25 home runs, driving in 95+ runs and hitting .310 or so.
| 12 Teams | 15 Teams | ||||||
| Rank | Name | ADP | Round | Pick | Round | Pick | |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | Miguel Cabrera | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| 3 | Joey Votto | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | Adrian Gonzalez | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | |
| 5 | Mark Teixeira | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | |
| 6 | Ryan Howard | 17 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 7 | Prince Fielder | 20 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 5 | |
| 8 | Justin Morneau | 50 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| 9 | Kendry Morales | 56 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 11 | |
| 10 | Kevin Youkilis | 26 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 11 | Adam Dunn | 42 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | |
| 12 | Paul Konerko | 66 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | |
| 13 | Billy Butler | 79 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | |
| 14 | Aubrey Huff | 111 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 6 | |
| 15 | Carlos Pena | 167 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 2 | |
| 16 | Gaby Sanchez | 175 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 10 | |
| 17 | Adam LaRoche | 159 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 9 | |
| 18 | Derrek Lee | 188 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 8 | |
| 19 | Ike Davis | 194 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 14 | |
| 20 | James Loney | 212 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 2 | |
