Posts Tagged ‘Average Draft Position’

2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 16th, 2011

This is the fifth article in the series examining the current 2011 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for the position of third base. The data used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system which has 15 teams per league in a mixed format with two catchers needed per team.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as third basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Again, you will note one player with a big jump up in the rankings after having a better than expected year last year in Adrian Beltre. I guess people seem to forget that all of his big seasons have come in contract years and drafting him early in the fourth round in a 15 team mixed fantasy baseball league is a little too high with a correction in stats likely coming.

Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval, two guys that were picks in the top three rounds last season are now going in the 8th and 9th round respectively. In you are one that believes in stat corrections occurring back to the median, then this represents potential for good value. If you draft Reynolds, just make sure that you surround him with high average hitters so you don’t end up tanking that category. Reports are that Sandoval is has lost weight and will be in better shape this season which if true will likely bump his value up a round or two once the real fantasy baseball drafts roll around.

Edwin Encarnacion could be a good source for cheap power late in the draft as one of the few guys after round 9 that has the ability to hit 20+ home runs in a season. The third base position will also get a boost after several weeks when Kevin Youkilis gains eligibility so he is someone to look at as well.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Evan Longoria 5 1 5 1 5
2 David Wright 10 1 10 1 10
3 Alex Rodriguez 16 2 4 2 1
4 Ryan Zimmerman 19 2 7 2 4
5 Jose Bautista 45 4 9 3 15
6 Michael Young 84 7 12 6 9
7 Adrian Beltre 49 5 1 4 4
8 Mark Reynolds 119 10 11 8 14
9 Aramis Ramirez 87 8 3 6 12
10 Pedro Alvarez 86 8 2 6 11
11 Casey McGehee 99 9 3 7 9
12 Pablo Sandoval 133 12 1 9 13
13 Ian Stewart 128 11 8 9 8
14 Edwin Encarnacion 305 26 5 21 5
15 Scott Rolen 180 15 12 12 15
16 Chris Johnson 263 22 11 18 8
17 Chase Headley 255 22 3 17 15
18 Placido Polanco 239 20 11 16 14
19 Danny Valencia 341 29 5 23 11
20 Jose Lopez 210 18 6 14 15
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2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 15th, 2011

This is the fourth article in the series examining the current 2011 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for the position of shortstop. The data used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system which has 15 teams per league in a mixed format with two catchers needed per team.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as shortstops may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

It is interesting to look at the fantasy baseball ADP for this position as there are three kind of distinct fantasy baseball tiers with the top eight players going in the first eight round, then another four players going in rounds 10-12 and then the rest of the players going in the latter stages of the draft.

Those people drafting at the end of round three are going to have to make a tough call as to whether they want Derek Jeter at shortstop or Jimmy Rollins. Though Jeter’s dropped off last year, the one thing you can say about him is that you know he is going to play in almost every game. Rollins only played in 88 games last year and is headed toward free agency so one would hope he comes into camp in great shape this year so that is news to be watching for when players report.

I don’t have Alex Gonzalez in my top 20 shortstops, but based on ADP it looks like he is going as the 11th shortstop off the board. I am hoping that is some type of data discrepancy as I can’t believe he would be going that high. Again, don’t pay for last year’s numbers as regression always tends to counter balance ups and downs from season to season. Also remember that most of his damage came in Toronto where it seemed like everyone was swinging for the fences last season.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Hanley Ramirez 2 1 2 1 2
2 Troy Tulowitzki 4 1 4 1 4
3 Jose Reyes 25 3 1 2 10
4 Derek Jeter 53 5 5 4 8
5 Jimmy Rollins 43 4 7 3 13
6 Alexei Ramirez 81 7 9 6 6
7 Rafael Furcal 143 12 11 10 8
8 Elvis Andrus 75 7 3 5 15
9 Stephen Drew 112 10 4 8 7
10 Starlin Castro 153 13 9 11 3
11 Ian Desmond 168 14 12 12 3
12 Miguel Tejada 211 18 7 15 1
13 Jhonny Peralta 269 23 5 18 14
14 Asdrubal Cabrera 180 15 12 12 15
15 Marco Scutaro 202 17 10 14 7
16 Yunel Escobar 329 28 5 22 14
17 Jason Bartlett 283 24 7 19 13
18 J.J. Hardy 311 26 11 21 11
19 Reid Brignac 299 25 11 20 14
20 Erick Aybar 282 24 6 19 12
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2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 14th, 2011

This is the third article in the series examining the current 2011 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for the position of second base. The data used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system which has 15 teams per league in a mixed format with two catchers needed per team.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as second basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Again, it is interesting to note how much fantasy baseball owners take into account the performance just from the previous season and not a several year approach in determining a player’s fantasy value. For example, Brian Roberts was injured last season and Rickie Weeks was healthy for the first time for a full season and now because of that they have essentially swapped spots with their ADP from a year ago.

I think the people that wait later in the draft for Zobrist, Hill, Roberts, Beckham are going to see some good value as compared to those owners grabbing Weeks, Prado or Kelly Johnson several rounds earlier.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Robinson Cano 11 1 11 1 11
2 Chase Utley 17 2 5 2 2
3 Dustin Pedroia 28 3 4 2 13
4 Dan Uggla 46 4 10 4 1
5 Ian Kinsler 49 5 1 4 4
6 Brandon Phillips 35 3 11 3 5
7 Rickie Weeks 44 4 8 3 14
8 Ben Zobrist 130 11 10 9 10
9 Brian Roberts 123 11 3 9 3
10 Aaron Hill 143 12 11 10 8
11 Martín Prado 74 7 2 5 14
12 Howie Kendrick 177 15 9 12 12
13 Kelly Johnson 102 9 6 7 12
14 Gordon Beckham 162 14 6 11 12
15 Neil Walker 233 20 5 16 8
16 Chone Figgins 97 9 1 7 7
17 Danny Espinosa 385 33 1 26 10
18 Mike Aviles 174 15 6 12 9
19 Juan Uribe 251 21 11 17 11
20 Omar Infante 235 20 7 16 10
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2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2011

This will be the first article in the series examining the current 2011 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for the catcher position. The data used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system which has 15 teams per league in a mixed format with two catchers needed per team.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as catchers may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

I think the one thing that stands out from looking at the list is the fact that Carlos Santana is going exactly four rounds after Buster Posey is. Had Santana not got hurt in 2010 and had the same amount of at bats as Posey did, I think they would be drafted much closer to each other which means I think Santana goes several rounds higher once the real drafts roll around. An owner is not going to want to wait until the 7th round in a 15 team draft hoping he slides that far. If they do, they are going to miss out on him.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Joe Mauer 21 2 9 2 6
2 Victor Martinez 31 3 7 3 1
3 Brian McCann 32 3 8 3 2
4 Buster Posey 43 4 7 3 13
5 Carlos Santana 103 9 7 7 13
6 Kurt Suzuki 169 15 1 12 4
7 Geovany Soto 99 9 3 7 9
8 Mike Napoli 114 10 6 8 9
9 Miguel Montero 126 11 6 9 6
10 Matt Wieters 131 11 11 9 11
11 Miguel Olivo 249 21 9 17 9
12 Jorge Posada 156 13 12 11 6
13 John Jaso 404 34 8 27 14
14 A.J. Pierzynski 287 24 11 20 2
15 J.P. Arencibia 326 28 2 22 11
16 Yadier Molina 218 19 2 15 8
17 Chris Snyder 310 26 10 21 10
18 Carlos Ruiz 229 20 1 16 4
19 John Buck 232 20 4 16 7
20 Russell Martin 309 26 9 21 9
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2011 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Mixed League Hitters

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 6th, 2011

With the holidays now over and 2011 fantasy baseball drafts taking off, it is time to start looking at some of the avergae draft positions from mixed leagues to see where certain players are going. The data being used for this article is from Mock Draft Central using the WCOFB High Stakes scoring system. When looking at ADP data, I tend to use those from high stakes events where possible since it gives a better indicator of where players are really going. Also for this discussion, I will assume that the league is made up of 15 teams when giving round correlations.

One of the first things that you will notice when looking at any type of fantasy baseball ADP list is how often players move up or down in value from year-to-year. One year a player is injured, one year he is healthy and all of a sudden there is a four to five round change in value. Remember that you don’t want to be paying for 2010 stats when you are drafting in 2011. Rather you want to try to find guys that are going to give you good value based on where they are drafted.

While it is still early in the process for fantasy baseball drafts, here is a look at some of the things that stand out to me based on 11 drafts in the data.

Catchers: Joe Mauer (19), Brian McCann (26) and Victor Martinez (27) are all relatively close in order. Buster Posey is next at (55). Carlos Santana is currently ranked 10 at pick 175.

First base: Kendry Morales is a decent value at (64) coming off an injury. Paul Konerko is way too high at (71) coming off a huge year that he is not going to duplicate. Lance Berkman has taken a huge drop in value from a year ago coming in at 243.

Second Base: Rickie Weeks is going to break a lot of fantasy baseball owners hearts if he is going at pick 36 which is the middle of the third round and puts him ahead of Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler to name a few. Ben Zobrist, Brian Roberts and Aaron Hill have all taken steps back in the rankings, going in round 9 or later. Neil Walker is going much later at 347 than players who are going to hit half of the home runs that he does.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki is going to be gone by the middle of the first round in 2011. People are still holding high on Derek Jeter with him going in the 3rd / 4th round at pick 43. Ian Desmond looks like a decent pick at 163, going later than Starlin Castro and Alex Gonzalez.

Third base: Alex Rodriguez is on the verge of falling out of the first round at pick 16. It looks like fantasy baseball owners are a little too high on Pedro Alvarez at spot 82 which puts him in the middle of the 6th round. Mary Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval both take a big hit, going at the end of round 9, early in round 10. Third base looks to be pretty slim pickings after the middle tier is gone with injuries and questions marks toward the back end of the draft.

Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez is the number one outfielder ahead of Josh Hamilton. Ichiro Suzuki is still too high at pick 28. Jason Heyward takes a big jump up to spot 51 which is too high for him as well. Owners must be hoping he pulls a Carlos Gonzalez this season to be picking him ahead of proven players like Adam Dunn or Alex Rios. Jacoby Ellsbury has fallen from round 1/2 down to round five. I expect as we get closer to the start of the season he will start heading up the draft boards if he is going to hit first in the Boston lineup.

Injured players are going late as they should be with Grady Sizemore at 88 and Jason Bay at 177. Michael Stanton is going at pick 183 which puts him in round 13.

Designated hitter / Utility: Vladimir Guerrero is going at pick 72 which puts him in the 6th round. David Ortiz at pick 121 and Hideki Matsui at 173 are the only other utility players worth looking at in mixed league formats.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 29th, 2010

With the last week of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, here is a look at some of the players with changes to their average draft position (ADP), based on a 15 team mixed league.

Rising:

Jose Reyes (round 1-4) – it all depends on your league and your level of risk but I saw him being drafted from the end of the first round until the middle of the fourth round in various drafts this past weekend.

Mike Napoli (round 8-9) – Napoli’s power outburst in spring training has him going ahead of some catchers strictly based on his spring training stats which is a mistake.

Jason Heyward (round 10) – the announcement that Heyward has won the starting job for the Atlanta Braves has pushed him up to the 10th round in recent drafts.

Chris Perez (round 13) – the injury to Kerry Wood opened the door for Perez as the Indians closer. There is no reason to expect Wood to return as the closer when he returns unless Perez falters in the role. With Wood a free agent at the end of this season unless he hits 55 games finished in 2010, the most likely scenario in which he closes is if he is traded to another team.

Sean Rodriguez (round 16) – remember that he only qualifies at outfield to begin the season so don’t wait until the late rounds of the draft thinking you are going to grab him at second base. His strikeout rate from his previous stints in the major leagues is still some cause for concern going forward.

Speed / Power combo outfielders – I think there was a lot of surprise this past weekend in drafts as speed / power combo outfielders were taken much higher than their average draft position. Guys like Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, etc. were all going a round or two higher. If you are targeting those types of hitters in drafts this weekend, you might need to bump them up your draft board.

Falling:

Brian Roberts (round 4) – injury concerns of his back and a possible drop in stolen bases has dropped him a round in drafts.

Lance Berkman (round 8) – injury concerns plus the possibility of him starting the season on the disabled list has dropped his average draft position by three to four rounds.

Huston Street (round 13) – another injured player that dropped four rounds based on the uncertainty of his status.

Carlos Beltran (round 13-15) – it still looks like he will be back around the end of April / early part of May assuming he does not have any setbacks. Expect a decrease in stolen bases when he does return.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 23rd, 2010

With spring training here and new information coming out every day on players, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) to see which players are moving up or down on the draft board.

Rising:

Roy Halladay (27th overall) – ADP was 34 two weeks ago and I have seen him going as high as the late teens in recent drafts. With pitching going early this season, Halladay is getting bumped up closer to Tim Lincecum. If there is any pitcher that is going to get 20 or more wins this season, Halladay would be the favorite at this point.

Justin Morneau (39) – ADP is up five spots but he has been going higher as well in recent mock drafts. Concerns about his back and a potential for less power have seem to have been erased from fantasy owners minds.

Josh Johnson (72) – ADP is up 10 spots from two weeks ago. Looks like owners at the end of the fifth round are afraid he will not make it back on the turn in snake drafts and are pulling the trigger a little bit sooner to ensure they get him.

Clayton Kershaw (98) – ADP up 15 spots. Being pulled higher by the early drafting of the Tier 1 pitchers. Arguably the last solid number one starter for your fantasy baseball team depending how much faith you have in Cole Hamels or Ubaldo Jimenez going after him.

Matt Wieters (99) – ADP up 9 spots and he is coming close to falling into the overrated category if he goes any higher. I don’t see his upside that much greater than Miguel Montero or Jorge Posada whom you can get four rounds later in the draft.

Huston Street (143) – ADP up 18 spots as he is last closer going off the board before the remaining relief pitchers who all have question marks tied to them.

Brett Anderson (166) – ADP up 25 spots as people are buying into the hype being spouted by magazines and other websites calling him the breakout pitcher of 2010. No longer has the potential to value for you based on where he is currently going in drafts.

James Loney (184) ADP up 20 spots that has pushed him up the first base rankings ahead of Adam LaRoche, Todd Helton and Paul Konerko. Combination of batting average plus I think people are hoping for an increase in power which I don’t see happening.

Falling:

Alfonso Soriano (77) – ADP down five spots and there is a chance he goes later than this. There is lots of good talent still on the board at the start of the sixth round. His recent comments about his knee that he had surgery on being only 80-85% healthy has to cause some concern if you are planning to draft him.

Michael Bourn (79) – ADP is down 12 spots from two weeks ago. Nice to see that people are starting to realize his true value and are pushing him back to a more reasonable position in that draft, although the 79th spot is still much too high.

Vladimir Guerrero (138) – ADP down 16 spots. Still might have another good season in him, but it is hard to tie up your utility spot this early in the draft since he does not qualify at any other position.

Chris Davis (158) – ADP down 13 spots as people are still trying to decide which version of him are they going to get. It looks like right now owners are not buying into his performance after he came back from Triple-A at the end of the 2009 season.

Jack Cust (232) – ADP down 77 spots thanks to crowded Oakland A’s roster that will limit Cust’s at bats in 2010. Low batting average is also tough to take this late in the draft unless you planned on taking him and surrounded him with high average hitters.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Trends

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2010

After competing in several 2010 fantasy baseball mock drafts over the last few days, there are several trends that seem to be occurring that you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy baseball league.

1) The top five seems to be locked in place with Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Ryan Braun. Every once in awhile Matt Kemp or Ryan Howard may jump in the top 5, but other than that, the top is pretty well set from draft to draft.

2) David Wright is starting to slowly creep back up draft boards. His original average draft position (ADP) had him going in the early second round of 15 team mixed drafts. In the drafts from this current weekend, he was consistently in the first round and went as high as 11th. I think the majority of people are willing to give him a pass on last season and expect his numbers to return to 2008 levels.

3) Pitching continues to go very high in drafts. By the end of round seven, almost every top tiered pitcher is off the board. The next pitchers being drafted usually include a group from Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, and A.J. Burnett. If you are not comfortable with any one of those players being the first pitcher or second pitcher on your staff, you are going to have to plan on taking a pitcher a little bit earlier than you are accustomed to this season.

4) Relief pitchers are following the trend of starting pitchers and seem to be going higher than usual for the second group of 15 closers. In years past it seemed like you could maybe pick up a second closer that was still decent in rounds 13-15 or maybe even later. That no longer seems to be the case as the most dependable second 15 closers seem to be gone by the end of the 12th round, which is roughly the midway point of the draft. Once the 12th round is over, your options usually look like Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Octavio Dotel or taking a chance on the winner of the Toronto / Houston closer competition.

5) There has been one position that is showing a consistent “run” in a draft; that being the catcher position. It looks like the majority or owners have Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto ranked relatively close because once one of that group is drafted, the others seem to follow shortly after.

The next group after that then is Bengie Molina, Chris Ianetta, Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. This gives you an idea of where the two runs are for the group of catchers because if you miss the first one, you might be able to get someone from the second group depending where your draft position is.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 19th, 2010

This is the eighth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for closers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.

Overvalued:

It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.

Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Jonathan Broxton 70 6 10 5 10
2 Joe Nathan 76 7 4 6 1
3 Jonathan Papelbon 71 6 11 5 11
4 Mariano Rivera 73 7 1 5 13
5 Joakim Soria 102 9 6 7 12
6 Francisco Rodriguez 87 8 3 6 12
7 Andrew Bailey 127 11 7 9 7
8 Heath Bell 103 9 7 7 13
9 Jose Valverde 137 12 5 10 2
10 Huston Street 149 13 5 10 14
11 Brian Wilson 143 12 11 10 8
12 Francisco Cordero 108 9 12 8 3
13 Billy Wagner 150 13 6 10 15
14 Rafael Soriano 157 14 1 11 7
15 Brian Fuentes 117 10 9 8 12
16 Trevor Hoffman 170 15 2 12 5
17 Frank Francisco 204 17 12 14 9
18 Mike Gonzalez 206 18 2 14 11
19 Chad Qualls 228 19 12 16 3
20 David Aardsma 156 13 12 11 6
21 Carlos Marmol 143 12 11 10 8
22 Bobby Jenks 163 14 7 11 13
23 Ryan Franklin 153 13 9 11 3
24 Kerry Wood 227 19 11 16 2
25 Brad Lidge 229 20 1 16 4
26 Matt Capps 234 20 6 16 9
27 Leo Nunez 242 21 2 17 2
28 Jason Frasor 264 22 12 18 9
29 Octavio Dotel 271 23 7 19 1
30 Brandon Lyon 261 22 9 18 6

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  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Starting Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2010

This is the seventh article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for starting pitchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

I have Ryan Dempster 11 spots higher on my starting pitcher list than his current ADP ranking. Numbers from 2008 and 2009 were pretty close to the same except for a drop in wins and some regression to his ERA that was to be expected. Has a much better percent chance of striking out 175+, having an ERA under 3.7 and a WHIP under 1.3 than quite a few people that are currently being drafted ahead of him.

Gavin Floyd was a top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies and one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues when he was coming up through the farm system. It took him a little over 170 innings at the major league level before finally settling into a groove so the struggles he encountered still have some people not giving him enough credit. Bumped up his strikeout rate 1.3 per nine last season and decreased his home run rate. ERA went up slightly only because of the ineffectiveness of the bullpen behind him.

Hiroki Kuroda is ranked 50th on my list and is 66th according to his current average draft position. Injuries kept his innings down in 2009 which might partially explain his current standing. But in the innings he did pitch, he improved his strikeout per nine ratio by a batter.

Overvalued:

Starting pitchers in general. Last year in the NFBC, there were only three pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks on average. Those were Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. This season there are eight pitchers with a current fantasy baseball ADP in the top 50.

If you look at the top 15 pitchers based on where they were drafted in the NFBC last season, you could argue that half of them were busts or went too high, either based on injury or performance. Those would include Santana, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Even though they did not have terrible seasons, you could add Chad Billingsley and James Shields to that list as well as their actual value turned out to be much lower than where they were drafted.

Cliff Lee seems to scream overvalued to me based on where he is going in fantasy baseball mock drafts. Moves back to the American League where his control was not as sharp as it was in the NL. Will see a drop in his strikeout rate and if his strand rate which was higher than average the last two seasons regresses, his ERA is going to jump as well. Now, I am not saying to stay away from him, just that there several better options than him when you are on the clock to make your draft choice.

As I wrote about Javier Vazquez in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers, I just don’t see how he is being drafted as high as he is. The move back to the American League (drop in strikeouts, higher ERA and WHIP) coupled with the move to the Eastern division and playing in New York (4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when last with Yankees) means there is some regression coming to his 2009 numbers. Remember that you should be drafting players based on what they will do in 2010 and not what they did last season. I still see way too many people doing that. There are variables every year that impact performance and you need to be able to take these into account when the information is available to you.

A.J. Burnett I have ranked as the 37th pitcher compared to his ADP that places him at 29. An ERA over 4, plus a WHIP that hit 1.40 last season combined with a past injury history makes me leery of grabbing him too high in a mixed league draft. If  you wait to draft starting pitchers and he is one of the top two pitchers on your team, you are going to need to surround with him low ratio pitchers so you don’t feel the full impact of his lack of control.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Tim Lincecum 13 2 1 1 13
2 Roy Halladay 31 3 7 3 1
3 Dan Haren 41 4 5 3 11
4 Zack Greinke 31 3 7 3 1
5 Felix Hernandez 32 3 8 3 2
6 CC Sabathia 29 3 5 2 14
7 Justin Verlander 47 4 11 4 2
8 Johan Santana 46 4 10 4 1
9 Adam Wainwright 61 6 1 5 1
10 Josh Johnson 80 7 8 6 5
11 Jon Lester 62 6 2 5 2
12 Tommy Hanson 87 8 3 6 12
13 Chris Carpenter 81 7 9 6 6
14 Cliff Lee 56 5 8 4 11
15 Josh Beckett 86 8 2 6 11
16 Yovani Gallardo 98 9 2 7 8
17 Matt Cain 95 8 11 7 5
18 Cole Hamels 105 9 9 7 15
19 Jake Peavy 86 8 2 6 11
20 Ubaldo Jimenez 106 9 10 8 1
21 Clayton Kershaw 105 9 9 7 15
22 Javier Vazquez 63 6 3 5 3
23 Ricky Nolasco 111 10 3 8 6
24 Chad Billingsley 126 11 6 9 6
25 Wandy Rodriguez 122 11 2 9 2
26 Brandon Webb 142 12 10 10 7
27 Jair Jurrjens 140 12 8 10 5
28 Ryan Dempster 169 15 1 12 4
29 Brett Anderson 175 15 7 12 10
30 James Shields 133 12 1 9 13
31 Jered Weaver 139 12 7 10 4
32 John Lackey 128 11 8 9 8
33 Matt Garza 129 11 9 9 9
34 Scott Baker 158 14 2 11 8
35 Gavin Floyd 194 17 2 13 14
36 Max Scherzer 150 13 6 10 15
37 A.J. Burnett 132 11 12 9 12
38 Ted Lilly 156 13 12 11 6
39 Roy Oswalt 158 14 2 11 8
40 John Danks 168 14 12 12 3
41 David Price 185 16 5 13 5
42 Carlos Zambrano 171 15 3 12 6
43 Tim Hudson 219 19 3 15 9
44 Rich Harden 226 19 10 16 1
45 Clay Buchholz 211 18 7 15 1
46 Kevin Slowey 225 19 9 15 15
47 Scott Kazmir 185 16 5 13 5
48 Jonathan Sanchez 240 20 12 16 15
49 J.A. Happ 254 22 2 17 14
50 Hiroki Kuroda 261 22 9 18 6
51 Randy Wolf 193 17 1 13 13
52 Francisco Liriano 247 21 7 17 7
53 Johnny Cueto 239 20 11 16 14
54 Rick Porcello 222 19 6 15 12
55 Jorge de la Rosa 202 17 10 14 7
56 Daisuke Matsuzaka 203 17 11 14 8
57 Jeff Niemann 230 20 2 16 5
58 Ervin Santana 243 21 3 17 3
59 Mark Buehrle 248 21 8 17 8
60 Joe Blanton 283 24 7 19 13

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be closers.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Outfield

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 17th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the sixth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players in the outfield. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Juan Pierre is currently being selected after the majority of base stealers like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis which is baffling to me. He has a proven track record in the major leagues and out of all the players on the list has the best chance of hitting .300, scoring 100 runs and stealing 50 bases. Each of the players going before him have questions that he does not carry. The only downside to him the last two years was his lack of playing time which will not be an issue in Chicago this year.

I like Nolan Reimold this season based on his current average draft position. His limited at bats upon arriving in the major leagues his suppressing his value this year it seems.  Hit .299 after the All-Star break in 187 at bats with 6 home runs, 22 RBI and 6 stolen bases. If you pro-rate that to 540 at bats, you are looking at a line of roughly 78 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 18 steals. I expect the RBI to be a little more than that and steals less, but he should still crack double digits.

Cody Ross, not a sexy pick, but is good value based on current ADP with the ability to get you 20-25 home runs late in the draft with 80-90 RBI.

Overvalued:

One dimensional speed demons. I wrote about this back in the article on 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. It is not a good idea to take an outfielder as high as Michael Bourn that has value tied up mainly in one category. If your team goal is 180 stolen bases and you have him projected for 60, that accounts for 33% of your teams total. Any type of pulled hamstring or injured ankle and then your team is scrambling for stolen bases during the year. There is also a lot of fluctuation in stolen bases from year to year so 60 stolen bases for him last season might only be 50 in 2010.

I also mentioned when discussing Bourn that taking him that high weakens you are another position that has less depth than in the outfield. I would much rather have the choice to pick between an outfielder at the end of the draft where the talent pool is much deeper that having to take a scrub middle infielder. Then you are taking hit in multiple categories like home runs and RBI by rostering Bourn plus a scrub infielder late, than getting an infielder where Bourn is being drafted and then grabbing an outfielder to close out the draft.

You are much better off getting stolen bases in the first four rounds of the draft spread out between four players rather than have the risk of your speed tied to the legs of one individual.

Andrew McCutchen is an exciting young player but much like Joey Votto at first base, the expectations for 2010 are pushing him very high in mock drafts lately. Started out as a 9th round pick back in December and has steadily been moving up the ladder ever since. Current ADP is toward end of 6th round in a 15 team mixed draft and I would not be surprised to see him going at the end of the 4th round by the time the season starts.

You have to remember though just like in an auction format, your goal when drafting is to get the best value out of each pick. The higher in the draft he goes, the higher his stat line you are forecasting becomes.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Ryan Braun 5 1 5 1 5
2 Matt Kemp 8 1 8 1 8
3 Matt Holliday 22 2 10 2 7
4 Jacoby Ellsbury 19 2 7 2 4
5 Carl Crawford 15 2 3 1 15
6 Jason Bay 26 3 2 2 11
7 Justin Upton 28 3 4 2 13
8 Grady Sizemore 26 3 2 2 11
9 Jayson Werth 35 3 11 3 5
10 Nick Markakis 50 5 2 4 5
11 Adam Lind 44 4 8 3 14
12 Nelson Cruz 65 6 5 5 5
13 Curtis Granderson 52 5 4 4 7
14 Andre Ethier 68 6 8 5 8
15 Manny Ramirez 64 6 4 5 4
16 Adam Dunn 55 5 7 4 10
17 B.J. Upton 59 5 11 4 14
18 Carlos Lee 70 6 10 5 10
19 Shin-Soo Choo 69 6 9 5 9
20 Bobby Abreu 76 7 4 6 1
21 Alfonso Soriano 75 7 3 5 15
22 Shane Victorino 70 6 10 5 10
23 Josh Hamilton 54 5 6 4 9
24 Torii Hunter 93 8 9 7 3
25 Hunter Pence 86 8 2 6 11
26 Ichiro Suzuki 41 4 5 3 11
27 Andrew McCutchen 87 8 3 6 12
28 Nate McLouth 88 8 4 6 13
29 Denard Span 122 11 2 9 2
30 Jay Bruce 118 10 10 8 13
31 Alex Rios 107 9 11 8 2
32 Raul Ibanez 95 8 11 7 5
33 Carlos Quentin 103 9 7 7 13
34 Johnny Damon 118 10 10 8 13
35 Jason Kubel 115 10 7 8 10
36 Adam Jones 88 8 4 6 13
37 Carlos Gonzalez 121 11 1 9 1
38 Nolan Reimold 201 17 9 14 6
39 Brad Hawpe 114 10 6 8 9
40 Carlos Beltran 89 8 5 6 14
41 Garrett Jones 152 13 8 11 2
42 Michael Cuddyer 116 10 8 8 11
43 Ryan Ludwick 192 16 12 13 12
44 Juan Pierre 205 18 1 14 10
45 Chris Coghlan 212 18 8 15 2
46 Vernon Wells 185 16 5 13 5
47 Jermaine Dye 176 15 8 12 11
48 Corey Hart 178 15 10 12 13
49 Colby Rasmus 195 17 3 13 15
50 Nick Swisher 236 20 8 16 11
51 Cody Ross 264 22 12 18 9
52 Michael Bourn 75 7 3 5 15
53 Nyjer Morgan 129 11 9 9 9
54 Rajai Davis 165 14 9 11 15
55 Julio Borbon 187 16 7 13 7
56 Juan Rivera 179 15 11 12 14
57 Josh Willingham 222 19 6 15 12
58 Franklin Gutierrez 241 21 1 17 1
59 Mike Cameron 227 19 11 16 2
60 Travis Snider 224 19 8 15 14

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be starting pitchers.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 13th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fourth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at shortstop. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

J.J Hardy is currently going off the board as the number 19 shortstop which is too low in my eyes. He had some issues last season like the increase in strikeouts and being demoted to Triple-A. But don’t fall into the trap that many fantasy baseball owners do. You are not drafting him based on last years performance, but are selecting him based on his future performance in 2010. If he hits second in the batting order after Denard Span and Joe Mauer, he is going to get pitches to hit and is going to score more runs that he would have in the National League.

Everth Cabrera / Alcides Escobar are undervalued depending on the makeup of your team. If you are short on stolen bases midway through the draft, you could wait on Elvis Andrus and grab Cabrera or Escobar several rounds later. Cabrera will get you more steals and Escobar will have fewer steals but a higher batting average between the two.

Overvalued:

People seem to be looking at Rafael Furcal as if it were still 2006. His days of 20-30 steals are over with his recent back problems. If you are going to take a shortstop at the spot in the draft where he is currently going, you need someone that performs much better in home runs and RBI or steals more bases than what Furcal is going to give you.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Hanley Ramirez 1 1 1 1 1
2 Jimmy Rollins 21 2 9 2 6
3 Troy Tulowitzki 17 2 5 2 2
4 Jose Reyes 23 2 11 2 8
5 Derek Jeter 51 5 3 4 6
6 Alexei Ramirez 105 9 9 7 15
7 Miguel Tejada 142 12 10 10 7
8 Jason Bartlett 104 9 8 7 14
9 Asdrubal Cabrera 155 13 11 11 5
10 Elvis Andrus 160 14 4 11 10
11 Yunel Escobar 151 13 7 11 1
12 Stephen Drew 113 10 5 8 8
13 J.J. Hardy 247 21 7 17 7
14 Everth Cabrera 223 19 7 15 13
15 Alcides Escobar 251 21 11 17 11
16 Rafael Furcal 131 11 11 9 11
17 Marco Scutaro 203 17 11 14 8
18 Erick Aybar 198 17 6 14 3
19 Ryan Theriot 238 20 10 16 13
20 Orlando Cabrera 187 16 7 13 7

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be third basemen.

Read More »

 

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