Posts Tagged ‘Alex Gordon’

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders 1-20

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 25th, 2012

Here is the sixth article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. Lots of change in position of the top 20 outfielders from last season as several players had comeback seasons and others suffered injuries which impacted their performance.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball outfielders for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Matt Kemp – number of at bats the last four seasons, 606, 606, 602, 602 so that number to project is the easy part. His 2011 season was magical in every category but I don’t think he maintains that rate in 2012 as his fly ball rate and home runs per fly ball jumped from past seasons. He should be right in between 2010 and 2011 in terms of power with lots of stolen bases. I have him almost dead-even with CarGo so I am comfortable with flip-flopping them between now and draft day.

2. Carlos Gonzalez – his numbers weren’t quite as far off from 2010 as one might think since he had 106 less at bats. Hit much better at Coors Field again with a .331 average compared to .252 on the road. Home run rate picked up the second half of the season when he hit 13 in 163 at bats. Neck-and-neck with Kemp for the first outfielder to go off the board.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury – his home run total was a surprise as the rate for his fly balls going over the fence was so much higher than any other season it would be unrealistic to expect something similar in 2012. More home runs of course means less time on the bases which yields less stolen bases so you need to adjust those two numbers accordingly depending on how many home runs you expect him to hit in 2012. Hit 21 home runs after the All-Star Break with 11 stolen bases.

4.  Curtis Granderson – he ended 2010 with 17 home runs in 241 at bats after the All-Star Break and he was able to carry that same home run rate over the course of the entire 2011 season. His strikeout rate has risen for three straight seasons as he has swung for the fences more and he has enjoyed hitting in Yankee Stadium where he now has 36 home runs in 523 at bats there. His fly balls flew over the fence at a much higher rate in 2011 so expect that to pull back slightly.

5. Justin Upton – biggest reason for improvement in 2011 was good health and he was able to drastically cut his strikeout rate by 10 percentage points. Crushed the ball at home with 20 home runs and a .333 batting average at Chase Field. Increased his power output the second half of the season with 16 home runs in 244 at bats.

6. Josh Hamilton – numbers were in line with 2010 as was another season with time missed due to injury. Has one season with more than 518 at bats in four years which limits his chances to ever exceed his projected dollar value knowing he his bound to miss time at some point during the year.

7. Matt Holliday – nagging injuries impacted him at the plate as his strikeout rate was up five percentage points, but from a counting stats perspective, he would have outperformed his 2010 numbers if he had reached the same number of at bats as he had in 2010. Likely goes a few picks later in drafts this year since he missed time with injury which gives you a chance for a little profit.

8. Mike Stanton - showed what you want to see from a player in his first full season with growth the second half of the year. All numbers were higher the second half of the season including his walk rate which was significantly higher. Hit .271 in 214 at bats with 16 home runs and 36 RBI while drawing 40 walks after the All-Star Break.

9. Andrew McCutchen – traded contact for power which resulted in a lower batting average but more home runs. More at bats hitting third in the lineup than the previous season helped to boost his RBI total. Hit just .216 the second half of the season as strikeout rate ratcheted up.

10. Carl Crawford – a miserable first season with the Red Sox as he looked lost at the plate and when he did get on base he wasn’t running with only 24 stolen base attempts for the season. It was just recently announced that he had left wrist surgery which could impact his readiness for Opening Day. Struggled against left-handed pitching batting just .195 in 164 at bats. It stands to reason for a bounce back season in his second year of a massive contract but not all of the way back to 2010 levels as his strikeout rate has risen the last three seasons..

11. Hunter Pence  – the move mid-season to the Phillies led to an increase in all of his numbers except for stolen bases as he attempted just two steals in 54 games with his new team. Has hit .318 in his career at Citizens Bank Park in 129 at bats with three home runs and 18 RBI. Expect more home runs in 2012 and fewer stolen bases than in past seasons.

12. Jay Bruce – it looked like he made improvements in 2011 but really the main ingredient was an additional 76 at bats then the previous season. His RBI total was helped by hitting a spot higher in the lineup in 2011. Was better when hitting 5th (15 home runs, 46 RBI) vs. 4th (10 home runs, 33 RBI) in the batting order.

13. Shin-Soo Choo – injuries limited to half of a season in 2010. Nothing in his stats showed much change so there is nothing to suggest he won’t be at his 2009-2010 levels in 2012. He has been getting knocked lower in mock drafts which is good news for astute fantasy owners.

14. Nelson Cruz – injuries have held him under 476 at bats the last three seasons. Massive difference when he hits at home compared to the road. He hit .293 vs. .233 (2011), .371  vs. .267 (2010) and .286 vs. .232 (2009). Given the amount of time he misses each season, you need to have a good outfielder on reserve to fill in for him.

15. Desmond Jennings – hit .294 for his career in the minor leagues with an 85% success rate stealing bases. He is not a 20 home run hitter yet so don’t make the mistake of pro-rating his power numbers out over the course of a full season. Should be in the low teens in terms of power and should be close to 40 stolen bases for the season.

16. B.J. Upton – batting average tanked at home with a .209 average in 273 at bats at Tropicana Field. Strikeout rate remained the same which limits his batting average. Would really like to see him get a full season hitting second or third in the batting order where he has hit much better in his career. If that happens, bump his value up a notch or two.

17. Michael Bourn – stolen bases did not fall off with the trade to Atlanta last season as he had 29 attempts in 53 games. Should be close to 60 steals again but his batting average will be lower after an inflated hit rate in 2011. Has hit .273 with a home run and 11 RBI in 43 games at Turner Field in his career.

18. Shane Victorino – reversed decline against right-handed pitching from the previous two seasons which helped to boost this batting average back up.  Stolen bases were under 20 for the first time in the last five seasons, but that was due more to a lack of attempts rather than a decline in skill.

19. Corey Hart – better second half than first when he hit .297 with 16 home runs in 266 at bats. More than half of his at bats came hitting first in the batting order which reduced his RBI total so that should be headed up as he moved lower in the order in 2012.

20. Alex Gordon - magical season in 2011 but don’t pay for a repeat. Batting average was propelled by some luck, plus the fact he finally hit left-handed pitching. Kansas City was aggressive on the bases last season which drive his stolen base total.

Instead of spending money on outdated magazines written by fantasy owners with no experience of winning fantasy baseball leagues, order the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide today so you can start dominating the competition in your fantasy baseball league.

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The Daily Dirt from Sunday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 18th, 2010

Juan Pierre stole three bases giving him six on the season. Again a reminder of why it is hard to justify spending a high fantasy baseball draft pick on a one dimensional player high in the draft when speed options lurk late, such as Scott Podsednik and Brett Gardner who each stole their 7th base of the year today. In other fantasy baseball news from around the diamond on Sunday…

Hitters:

Shin-Soo Choo is still a one-man force for the Cleveland Indians offense as he went 2-for-3 with his fourth home run of the season and five RBI. Outside of him and Asdrubal Cabrera, there was no other hitter in the Indians line up with an average above .231 on Sunday.

Dan Uggla went 3-for-4 with two RBI and hit his third home run of the season. Uggla is now hitting .346 on the season.

Jay Bruce doubled his RBI output for the season, hitting two solo home runs in a 5-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Alberto Callaspo went 3-for-5 with two home runs and drove in six runs as the Kansas City Royals celebrated Alex Gordon’s return from the disabled list with a 10-5 win over the Minnesota Twins. Gordon went 1-for-4 hitting eighth in the line up.

Mark Reynolds went 3-for-4 with two RBI and knocked out his 4th home run of the season.

Ty Wigginton, filling in for Miguel Tejada who is day-to-day, went 2-for-5 with three runs scored and four RBI, including his fourth home run of the season. Despite being ninth on the team in number of at bats, Wigginton leads the Baltimore Orioles with 10 RBI.

Pitchers:

As much as the New York Yankees have players considered long in the tooth, they all keep producing. Andy Pettitte allowed two runs in eight innings with four strikeouts to gain his second win of the season.

Ervin Santana picked up a complete game win, allowing one run in nine innings with six strikeouts over the Toronto Blue Jays. His counterpart Ricky Romero coming was stellar once again, working eight innings while allowing one run with six strikeouts.

Matt Garza was dominant again in his third start of the season, tossing eight shutout innings with five strikeouts to move to 3-0 on the season. He now has a 0.75 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP on the season.

Nate Robertson is making a bid to become a mixed league option after holding the explosive Philadelphia Phillies offense scoreless at home for 6 1/3 innings. Robertson struck out four in picking up his second win of the season, while lowering his ERA to 2.20.

Ryan Dempster allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts in a no decision against the Houston Astros. Dempster was in line for the win until Carlos Marmol allowed a run in the ninth inning.

Brian Matusz notched his second win of the season, allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings while striking out eight. Matusz now has 23 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings on the season.

As I wrote about in the fantasy baseball waiver wire report for week 3, Wade LeBlanc should have some decent value while filling in for Chris Young. LeBlanc got the start on Sunday and allowed one run in five innings with seven strikeouts.

Ian Kennedy had a much better second start this week, working five shutout innings with seven strikeouts. Of course he had the aid of facing the San Diego Padres line up at Petco park, but still it was encouraging.

Barry Zito and Clayton Kershaw were locked in a pitchers duel Sunday, as neither player factored in the decision. Zito allowed one run in seven innings with three strikeouts, while Kershaw allowed one run in seven innings with nine strikeouts.

Closers:

Franklin Morales blew his second save of the season, allowing two hits, two walks and two runs in the ninth inning to the Atlanta Braves. It would not be a surprise to see Rafael Betancourt possibly get a save chance the next time the Colorado Rockies have the lead in the ninth inning.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 16th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at third base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Kevin Kouzmanoff at pick 271 0verall looks like great value now that he is away from Petco Park. He hit only .200 at home vs. 287 on the road in 2009. He should also see a boost in runs scored now playing in the American League as well.

If I am picking at the end of the 4th round of a 15 team mixed league, I would be ecstatic if Aramis Ramirez was still on the draft board. It was just a year ago that he was a pick at the end of the second or early third round. He should be at 100% after dealing with shoulder issues all season in 2009 and there is no reason for him not to hit 25+ home runs with a batting average in the .290 to .300 range.

Overvalued:

I love Chipper Jones as a player, but his current average draft position seems too high. Looks to be partly because of the drop off in talent at third base that Jones is getting selected at his current ADP combined with the fact people automatically assume Jones is going to bounce back to hitting over .300 again this season. He turns 38 at the end of April and with the nagging injuries he is now encountering, I think there are much safer options much later in the draft, than to risk an 8th or 9th round pick on him.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Rodriguez, Alex 3 1 3 1 3
2 Longoria, Evan 10 1 10 1 10
3 Wright, David 14 2 2 1 14
4 Reynolds, Mark 20 2 8 2 5
5 Zimmerman, Ryan 36 3 12 3 6
6 Sandoval, Pablo 41 4 5 3 11
7 Ramirez, Aramis 63 6 3 5 3
8 Figgins, Chone 82 7 10 6 7
9 Young, Michael 91 8 7 7 1
10 Beckham, Gordon 92 8 8 7 2
11 Stewart, Ian 134 12 2 9 14
12 Beltre, Adrian 182 16 2 13 2
13 Gordon, Alex 211 18 7 15 1
14 Cantu, Jorge 171 15 3 12 6
15 Jones, Chipper 133 12 1 9 13
16 Kouzmanoff, Kevin 271 23 7 19 1
17 McGehee, Casey 216 18 12 15 6
18 Blake, Casey 226 19 10 16 1
19 Peralta, Jhonny 204 17 12 14 9
20 Headley, Chase 233 20 5 16 8

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be outfielders.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 31st, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. Third base looks to be the shallowest position this season with a strong top tier of players and not many players with real upside potential later in the draft.

Keep in mind the additional flexibility offered by players like Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Chase Headley, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Teahen, Garrett Atkins and Jake Fox as they all qualify at two or more positions. If I have two players that are rated close together, I will usually give the nod to the player that qualifies at two positions to help manage my lineup during the season.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.

1) Alex Rodriguez – the number three overall pick and locked in still as the number one third basemen. Did not start running until the second half of the season when he stole 11 of his 14 bases so he should steal closer to 20 bases in 2010.

2) Evan Longoria – reduced his strikeout rate by 3% in 2009. If he can make similar strides this season, the closer he gets to pushing his batting average toward .300. Should post low double digit steal totals this year.

3) David Wright – some people are still drafting him ahead of Longoria in fantasy baseball mock drafts this year which I think is a mistake. No one has been able to produce a solid reason for Wright’s huge drop in power going from 33 home runs to only 10 last season. Was lucky to hit over .300 with a huge 40%  hit rate which was four percentage points higher than his career high. Never seemed to find his swing all season as he had a seven percentage point increase in his strikeout rate. It could have been the result of the New York Mets new ballpark and Wright changed his batting approach to accommodate and / or all of the injury issues the Mets faced and the disappointing season affected him as well. Either way, I think it is prudent not to assume an automatic return to his 2008 stats.

4) Mark Reynolds – his 2010 fantasy baseball ADP has varied, from the beginning to the end of the second round in mixed league drafts. No chance for upside in batting average when he strikes out in 39% of his at bats. His strikeout rate has slightly increased the last two seasons so there is downside to his numbers. If hits .239 again as he did in 2008, that costs you approximately two to three points off your team’s batting average which means you need to offset him with high average hitters at other positions if you want to finish in the top three in the batting average category.

5) Ryan Zimmerman – rebounded from his torn labrum in 2008 and put up numbers similar to his 2007 season. Would be nice if he returned to his stolen bases total from 2006 but that is quibbling. For now, enjoy the four category performance that he provides.

6) Pablo Sandoval – qualifies at first base or third base. Should be a .300 hitter for the next 10 years or so. Power came quicker than expected as he blasted 25 home runs and 44 doubles at age 23. Hit over .300 every month last season except for July when he hit .298.

7) Aramis Ramirez – I have him ranked very close to Sandoval, but you know that Ramirez will some time during the season. Since 2002, he has had over 550 at bats in only 3 of 7 years. Missed time with a dislocated shoulder last season but should be fine to start 2010.

8.) Chone Figgins – has steadily raised his walk rate the past few seasons, giving him more times on base and opportunity for stolen bases. One negative though is his stolen base success rate has been slowly dropping the last five years, from 79%, 77%, 77%, 72% to 71% last season.

9) Michael Young – power spike at age 32 brought him back to 2005 levels, so expect some regression in 2010. Puts up nice stats because he consistently gets 630+ at bats ever year except last season. As a career .302 hitter, he is a good asset for team batting average.

10) Gordon Beckham – will provide extra flexibility the second or fourth week in the season with his move to second base this year, depending on you fantasy baseball league rules. Spent a total of 233 at bats in the minor leagues before coming up to the Show. Average should trend up as he adjusts to major league pitching.

11) Ian Stewart – legit power but still struggles to make contact. Career minor league batting average of .293 but has come no where close to that in the majors. Upped his strikeout rate to a Mark Reynolds-esque 40% after the All-Star break. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting a meager .178 last season. Recent addition of Melvin More means there could be a platoon in the works.

12) Adrian Beltre – multiple injuries ruined his 2009 season and sapped him of his power. I would use his 2005 numbers as the baseline with a few more steals sprinkled in.

13) Alex Gordon – still waiting for him to live up to the expectations based on his minor league performance but so far it has not happened. Even though he was limited by injuries last season, it was nice to see that he kept his 2008 gains in his walk rate. With hype now suppressed, he is finally being drafted where he should have been in years past.

14) Jorge Cantu – even though power has fluctuated, RBI total has remained consistent and should continue to do so in 2010. Improved performance against left-handed pitching has helped to boost his batting average.

15) Chipper Jones – age is finally catching him up with. Project him for 425 at bats and consider anything more as gravy.

16) Kevin Kouzmanoff – should enjoy being away from Petco Park where he hit under .230 each of the last two seasons. Will be interesting to see if he is able to adjust to the Oakland A’s patient approach at the plate after never walking more than 32 times in a season in the major leagues.

17) Casey McGehee – moved into the starting lineup in June and never looked back. Not the greatest player defensively, but neither is top prospect Mat Gamel so McGehee should be good for 500+ at bats this season. Offers the added flexibility of also qualifying at second base.

18) Casey Blake – not a sexy pick and he is old, but still gets the job done every year. Should be solid once again in 2010 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

19) Jhonny Peralta -what happened to the power? Turned into a ground ball machine last year and the home runs disappeared. Should bounce back a little bit but probably not all the way to 20 home runs again.

20) Chase Headley – hit more home runs at home, but batted almost 100 points less. Should be able to add a few more home runs as he continues to develop.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be the top 20 outfielders.

Read More »

 

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