by Todd Lammi
What do you expect from your first round draft pick in fantasy baseball? It is a question which could get you 10 different answers from 10 different people, but for me I have three different answers on that subject. If I am drafting in the top half of the first round, I am hoping that my pick maintains his value, that is put up numbers close to his previous years performance. Any improvement from that player is then gravy, additional stats that you were not counting on. If I am picking at the second half of the first round, I am trying to identify that player that will perform like a top 5 pick, thus giving me additional value in terms of stats relative to draft position.
With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2009 in fantasy baseball in order.
1) Hanley Ramirez – The top pick by far, it is scary to think he just turned 25 in December. With Ramirez slated to hit third for the Florida Marlins this season, there is a very good chance his numbers are even better than last year in power while his stolen bases remain flat. Check out his walk rate last season, has he took 40 more walks in 50 less at bats. I am projecting .300 avg 33 home runs 95 rbis which I think might be too conservative, with an upside of 40-40 with 120 rbi’s.
2) Jose Reyes - the New York Mets are experimenting with Reyes hitting third so far in spring training behind Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran. This makes Reyes an interesting choice in determining his draft slot between 2-5. I have him ranked second for several reasons, his amount of stolen bases alone account for almost 40% of your teams total in order to reach your goal of being in the top three in that category. If you don’t take Reyes here, there is a huge drop-off in shortstop after Jimmy Rollins who will be long gone by your pick in round two and I will always take a middle infielder over a corner hitter or outfielder when the values are close. Secondly, the chance of Reyes hitting third for the entire season give him upside of .300 avg 20 home runs, 85-90 rbi’s with 55-60 steals.
3) Alex Rodriguez - Assuming he does get suspended at any point during the season, I think A-Rod is the number two choice in the first round. I see numbers similar to the 2006 with an improved New York Yankees lineup in 2009.
4) David Wright - In 2007, Wright’s numbers were almost identical to A-Rod’s. Wright is in the lineup every day so he gets a few extra stats with his 600+ at bats. His 34 stolen bases in 2007 don’t look like they will be repeated. Wright attempted only 8 steals in 91 games once Jerry Manuel took over as manager last season.
5) Jimmy Rollins – Where did the power go? Rollins went from 30 home runs in 2007 to only 11 home runs last season. I think the ankle sprain he suffered in the early part of the season affected his power throughout the course of the year. I like Rollins here over Albert Pujols because of the position factor and the stolen bases. As mentioned in my earlier articles, I want 100+ steals after three rounds and Rollins gets me almost half of that number.
Okay, now it gets a little more tricky after the first five picks. The one unique thing if you are playing in the NFBC, is that you can choose you draft position somewhat, but listing your preferences for picks in order. You are still at the mercy of the random draw for name selection, but you can control somewhat where you pick. For me, ranking draft slots 1-15, I would have pick number 6 last. I don’t want it. After the first five picks, Pujols would be the pick by most people here, if not earlier. Outside of a little more average, there is a good chance that Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira will have similar numbers. If I am picking 6th, I expect to have a stat advantage over the person picking 10-15 and with Pujols compared to the other 1b, I don’t see a huge difference, so my number six pick is:
6) Grady Sizemore - I have not that excited with his average but he is still young and hit .290 in 2006 so there is a little upside there. His 30-30 home run / steal combo plus 90+ rbi’s and runs scored make him an ideal #6 pick in my eyes.
7) Albert Pujols – as solid as they come, would be nice for him to hit double digits in steals one of these years like he did in 2005 but I guess that is nitpicking. He has not hit under .327 since 2002.
8.) Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera had a solid first year in ther American league, but if you look inside his numbers, it could be even better in 2009. In the last three months of 2008, Cabrera hit 26 home runs with 79 rbi’s in only 79 games. He also qualifies at 3b in leagues where the position eligibility requirement is 10 games.
9) Ryan Braun – Had a superb sophomore season, hitting 37 home runs with 14 stolen bases. He has some room to grow his batting average this year and has a good shot at surpassing 4o home runs.
10) Chase Utley - If I knew for a fact that he would be 100% healthy the entire season, I would have no problem taking him ahead of Pujols at #7. Utley’s numbers are in the David Wright range, without the stolen base upside that Wright or A-Rod offers.
11) Ryan Howard – The potential to add 50 home runs at this point in the first round is too hard to pass up. Howard was hitting under .230 for most of the season until he heated up in September. Not a good sign that his walk rate decreased in 81 more at bats last year.
12) Evan Longoria – If you want him, you are probably going to have to take him here if he is not already gone, because he will not make it back to your pick in the second round. If you extrapolate his numbers out for the full season at 600 at bats, he would have hit 36 home runs and drvien in 114 runs.
13) Carlos Beltran – His home runs have declined for two consecutive seasons while his stolen bases have been on the rise. He is a legit 30-30 threat and has driven in 100+ runs the past three years.
14) Alfonso Soriano – Soriano was limited by a broken hand in 2008 as well as a calf strain which cut down his stolen base numbers. He has talked this spring of 30 steals this year, but lots of guys talk of running in the spring. I would still pencil him in for only 20 steals and take anything over that as gravy.
15) Mark Teixeira – Teixeira has put up three straight seasons of pretty consistent numbers outside of a slight increase in batting average. Hitting in the New York Yankees lineup should help his numbers in 2009. Still has the upside of 40 home runs.
