Posts Tagged ‘ADP’

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 29th, 2010

With the last week of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, here is a look at some of the players with changes to their average draft position (ADP), based on a 15 team mixed league.

Rising:

Jose Reyes (round 1-4) – it all depends on your league and your level of risk but I saw him being drafted from the end of the first round until the middle of the fourth round in various drafts this past weekend.

Mike Napoli (round 8-9) – Napoli’s power outburst in spring training has him going ahead of some catchers strictly based on his spring training stats which is a mistake.

Jason Heyward (round 10) – the announcement that Heyward has won the starting job for the Atlanta Braves has pushed him up to the 10th round in recent drafts.

Chris Perez (round 13) – the injury to Kerry Wood opened the door for Perez as the Indians closer. There is no reason to expect Wood to return as the closer when he returns unless Perez falters in the role. With Wood a free agent at the end of this season unless he hits 55 games finished in 2010, the most likely scenario in which he closes is if he is traded to another team.

Sean Rodriguez (round 16) – remember that he only qualifies at outfield to begin the season so don’t wait until the late rounds of the draft thinking you are going to grab him at second base. His strikeout rate from his previous stints in the major leagues is still some cause for concern going forward.

Speed / Power combo outfielders – I think there was a lot of surprise this past weekend in drafts as speed / power combo outfielders were taken much higher than their average draft position. Guys like Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, etc. were all going a round or two higher. If you are targeting those types of hitters in drafts this weekend, you might need to bump them up your draft board.

Falling:

Brian Roberts (round 4) – injury concerns of his back and a possible drop in stolen bases has dropped him a round in drafts.

Lance Berkman (round 8) – injury concerns plus the possibility of him starting the season on the disabled list has dropped his average draft position by three to four rounds.

Huston Street (round 13) – another injured player that dropped four rounds based on the uncertainty of his status.

Carlos Beltran (round 13-15) – it still looks like he will be back around the end of April / early part of May assuming he does not have any setbacks. Expect a decrease in stolen bases when he does return.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Trends

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2010

After competing in several 2010 fantasy baseball mock drafts over the last few days, there are several trends that seem to be occurring that you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy baseball league.

1) The top five seems to be locked in place with Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Ryan Braun. Every once in awhile Matt Kemp or Ryan Howard may jump in the top 5, but other than that, the top is pretty well set from draft to draft.

2) David Wright is starting to slowly creep back up draft boards. His original average draft position (ADP) had him going in the early second round of 15 team mixed drafts. In the drafts from this current weekend, he was consistently in the first round and went as high as 11th. I think the majority of people are willing to give him a pass on last season and expect his numbers to return to 2008 levels.

3) Pitching continues to go very high in drafts. By the end of round seven, almost every top tiered pitcher is off the board. The next pitchers being drafted usually include a group from Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, and A.J. Burnett. If you are not comfortable with any one of those players being the first pitcher or second pitcher on your staff, you are going to have to plan on taking a pitcher a little bit earlier than you are accustomed to this season.

4) Relief pitchers are following the trend of starting pitchers and seem to be going higher than usual for the second group of 15 closers. In years past it seemed like you could maybe pick up a second closer that was still decent in rounds 13-15 or maybe even later. That no longer seems to be the case as the most dependable second 15 closers seem to be gone by the end of the 12th round, which is roughly the midway point of the draft. Once the 12th round is over, your options usually look like Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Octavio Dotel or taking a chance on the winner of the Toronto / Houston closer competition.

5) There has been one position that is showing a consistent “run” in a draft; that being the catcher position. It looks like the majority or owners have Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto ranked relatively close because once one of that group is drafted, the others seem to follow shortly after.

The next group after that then is Bengie Molina, Chris Ianetta, Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. This gives you an idea of where the two runs are for the group of catchers because if you miss the first one, you might be able to get someone from the second group depending where your draft position is.

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Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Friday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 10th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Philadelphia Phillies starter Cole Hamels was pounded by the Colorado Rockies on Friday for seven earned runs. Hamels, who had his start pushed back due to elbow trouble in spring training, struggled with his control and his velocity. Manager Charlie Manuel suggested that Hamels could possibly miss his next start. Dexter Fowler stole his first base of the season for the Colorado Rockies. In other news around the diamond on Friday…

National League:

Jason Motte of the St. Louis Cardinals struggled again when given the opportunity for the save, allowing two hits before being replaced by Kyle McClellan. In AAA, Chris Perez threw two scoreless innings. Kevin Gregg blew a save for the Chicago Cubs, costing Rich Harden a win. Harden struck out 10 batters in six innings. Cubs manager Lou Piniella said catcher Geovany Soto should be ready to play in a few days. Matt Lindstrom blew a save for the Florida Marlins, but was bailed out when Jorge Cantu singled in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning. John Maine and Anibal Sanchez both turned in good starts for the New York Mets and Marlins respectively…..James McDonald struggled in his first start for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Matt Kemp stole his first base of the season. Hiroki Kuroda was placed on the disabled list with a mild oblique strain. Eric Stults has been recalled from the minors and will start against the Arizona Diamondbacks tomorrow. D-Backs starter Brandon Webb is scheduled to make his next start on Friday, April 17th assuming the MRI that was taken does not show anything of significance…..Chipper Jones returned to the lineup for the Atlanta Braves. Braves starting pitcher Derek Lowe was removed in the fourth inning after a two hour rain delay…..Scott Hairston hit his first home run for the San Diego Padres as he continues to see playing time against left-handed starters. Emanuel Burriss got his first stolen base of the season for the San Francisco Giants

American League:

Miguel Cabrera hit his third home run of the season for the Detroit Tigers and drove in six runs, giving him 10 RBI on the season already. Armando Galarraga turned in a nice performance on the mound for the Tigers, striking out eight in seven innings of work. Nelson Cruz hit his third home run for the Texas Rangers…..Adam Lind hit his third home run for the Toronto Blue Jays, giving him 11 RBI on the year. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner both went yard for the Cleveland Indians as they each continue to show home run power that was missing in 2008…..Andy Pettitte got a win in his first start of the season for the New York Yankees, striking out six in seven innings. Jose Guillen of the Kansas City Royals was placed on the disabled list with a torn groin muscle. This move puts Alberto Callaspo into the starting lineup at second base, but also pushes back the eligibility time frame of Mark Teahan who now moves from second base back to the outfield…..The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Tampa Rays for the first time in their last 13 meetings, despite two home runs from Evan Longoria who now has four long balls on the young season. Outfielder B.J. Upton is expected to return from the disabled list on Monday for the Rays…..Joe Crede returned to U.S. Cellular Field, this time in a Minnesota Twins uniform, and hit a home run to propel the Twins over the Chicago White Sox. Twins starter Scott Baker, on the disabled list with stiffness in his right shoulder, had a successful minor league start in Class A, giving up one run in seven innings…..Jered Weaver had a good first start for the Los Angeles Angels, striking out eight in six and two-thirds innings. Bobby Abreau stole base number two and Chone Figgins base number three on the year for the Angels…..Rookie Brett Anderson had on average start for the Oakland As, giving up five earned runs in six innings of work. David Aardsma got a two inning save for the Seattle Mariners.

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Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Thursday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 9th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

One thing to keep an eye on for fantasy baseball owners playing in an National League only league where you lose a player if he is traded. The Milwaukee Brewers staff is pretty bad outside of Yovani Gallardo. One transaction the Brewers made late in spring was to claim first basemen Joe Koshansky and send him to AAA. With Brad Nelson already on the roster, I think Milwaukee is preparing themselves early for the possibility of dealing Prince Fielder later this year. In other fantasy baseball happenings around the diamond on Thursday…

National League:

NL only league players in deeper leagues should look to put in a free agent claim on Darnell McDonald of the Cincinnati Reds. McDonald looks to be the man against left-handed pitching in left field for the Reds. McDonald got his second start of the season on Thursday. Joey Votto continues to rake, hitting his second home run of the season. He is justifying his high draft status early on this year…..Chris Carpenter turned in a gem for the St. Louis Cardinals. He seems to be back to his form from 2006 but beware the injury risk still lingers going forward. Dennis Reyes got the save for the Cardinals as the Pittsburgh Pirates had lefties Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit up to bat in the ninth inning, so don’t rush to grab Reyes from the waiver wire assuming that he is the new closer.Ramon Vazquez got another start at third base for the Pirates over Andy LaRoche…..All the speed the Los Angeles Dodgers have and Orlando Hudson leads the team with three stolen bases? Hudson’s previous high was 10 in 2007. So far so good for Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres, now 2 for 2 in saves. Jody Gerut sat the bench again for the Padres with a lefty on the mound for the Dodgers…..Matt Cain got a win in his first start of the year for the San Francisco Giants. I think the Giants are the sleeper team in the National League West. Their offense does not look intimidating on paper but they seem to have a bunch of professional hitters that will put runs together this season.

American League:

In a battle of rookie starters, Ricky Romero of the Toronto Blue Jays outpitched Rick Porcello of the Detroit Tigers. Adam Lind hit his second home run of the season for the Blue Jays. He should be good for 20-25 home runs this season and out of the 5th spot in the lineup should be able to drive in 90+ runs…..Brandon Morrow of the Seattle Mariners was much better in his second save attempt shutting the door on the Minnesota Twins. Even though Glen Perkins got the loss, I like him in AL only leagues as a back half of a fantasy baseball rotation…..Lots of firsts for the New York Yankees on Thursday. First win in the new uniform for A.J. Burnett, first home run of the season for Mark Teixeira and first stolen base of the season for Brett Gardner…..Evan Longoria hit his second home run of the season for the Tampa Bay Rays. I had said in an earlier post that I expect him to battle David Wright and A-Rod for the first third basemen chosen in fantasy basbeall drafts next season. Jason Varitek hit his second home run for the Red Sox. He will provide a little bit of power from the catcher position for your fantasy team but be prepared to offset his low batting average…..Good starts from both Kyle Davies and John Danks in the Kansas City – Chicago game. Coco Crisp sent the Royals home a winner with his home run off of Bobby Jenks in the ninth inning. Alex Gordon stole his first base of the season for the Royals…..Andruw Jones got his first start of the season for the Texas Rangers and they decide to hit him cleanup? Mmmm, just saying, if a guy is good enough to hit cleanup when he plays, either he should be playing more or the manager is hitting him in the wrong spot in the lineup.

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Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Wednesday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 9th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Very sad news today in the world of sports today as Los Angeles Angels rookie starting pitcher Nick Adenhart was killed in a car accident Thursday morning. Adenhart, 22, was the starting pitcher against the Oakland Athletics last night and had thrown six shutout innings.

In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Wednesday…

American League:

Derek Jeter went yard for the New York Yankees who are still looking for their first win of the season. Koji Uehara was solid in his first start for the Baltimore Orioles, but where are the strikeouts?….Zach Miner got the win for the Detroit Tigers thanks in part to Brandon Inge, who hit his third home run of the season. Did I mention that he hits better as an infielder? Miguel Cabrera hit two home runs for the Tigers. I expect a monster season from Cabrera this season as he should league the American League in rbi…..Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria both went deep for the Tampa Bay Rays. Nice to see Rocco Baldeill make it back, as he started in right field for the Boston Red Sox…..Fausto Carmona, err, not a good start with the Cleveland Indians. Nelson Cruz for the Texas Rangers hit two home runs and stole a base. Elvis Andrus even chipped in with a home run; that is pure gravy if you own him….Kevin Slowey got the win for the Minnesota Twins, although his line was not that pretty. Denard Span has put his awful spring behind him and is off to a good start in week one, slugging his first home run of the season…..Zack Greinke looked sharp for the Kansas City Royals as did Gavin Floyd for the Chicago White Sox. Note on Gavin Floyd, his strikeouts were up in spring training and in his first start, this may be the season he kicks up his strikeout rate up a notch.

National League:

The Florida Marlins continued to roll. Emilio Bonifacio stole his fourth base of the season. Chris Volstad struck out 7 in 5 innings of work. Closer Matt Lindstrom looked shaky, loading the bases with one out before getting out of the jam. Elijah Dukes got his first start of the year in center field over Lastings Milledge for the Washington Nationals…..If you had game three in the Chipper Jones injury pool, you are a winner as Chipper sat with a bruised left thumb. Jordan Schafer hit his second home run of the season. Don’t get too excited thinking he is going to hit 30+ home runs, his career high in the minor leagues was 10. Dexter Fowler got the start in center field for the Colorado Rockies and hit his first home run in the major leagues. Manager Clint Hurdle said Fowler will see time against left-handed pitching and some right handers so I see Fowler getting 300-350 at bats…..New year, different result for Edison Volquez as he struggled against the New York Mets. I see some downside to Volquez who had a stellar year last year. Downside as in not likely to repeat last year’s numbers because they were just too good. There is always some regression to the mean…..Alfonso Soriano stole his frst base of the year for the Chicago Cubs. Jeff Keppinger got the start at 3b for the Houston Astros. He is a good free agent pickup in NL only leagues as he should see time against left-handed starters. How bad is the Astros staff that Russ Ortiz is on it?….David Freese got the start at 3b for the St. Louis Cardinals as manager Tony La Russa tries to set a major league record for having a different starting third basemen for every game of the season. Zach Duke who had a respectable spring for the Pittsburgh Pirates had a good first start…..Rule 5 pick Everth Cabrera got the start at shortstop for the San Diego Padres. I like Cabrera in NL only leagues as he has a chance to steal 15-20 bases this season in a reserve role. The best reliever in the National League (sorry K-Rod) Jonathan Broxton got his second save of the season for the Los Angeles Dodgers…..Yovani Gallardo (love him!) got the first win of the year for the Milwaukee Brewers. Gallardo should be good for close to 200 strikeouts this season health permitting.

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Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Tuesday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 7th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

It is time to break out the bubbly, the Florida Marlins look like they are going to the World Series this year. Of course, they are beating up on the Washington Nationals, but still, with a solid lineup and two top of the rotation starters, the Marlins should be in the hunt for the playoffs if their bullpen can protect leads this season.  Now on to more important matters, fantasy baseball news and notes from Tuesday at the ballpark.

National League:

Josh Johnson, NL CY Young sleeper this year, health permitting. If Emilio Bonifacio keeps getting on base, Jorge Cantu is going to drive in a ton of runs this season. Cantu hit his second home run of the year on Tuesday. Cameron Maybin batting second got his first stolen base of the season. Austin Kearns hit his first home run for the Nationals. Still no sign of Josh Willingham or Elijah Dukes…..The San Francisco Giants beat the Milwaukee Brewers but the big news was ace Tim Lincecum leaving after three innings and only 78 pitches thrown. The Giants offense could be semi interesting this season with a lot of guys in the 10-15 home run range driving in 80-90 runs…..Seriously, isn’t there a class these managers could take on how to fill out a batting order to appease fantasy baseball players?  I really would like to know why Hunter Pence is batting behind Geoff Blum for the Houston Astros. Catcher Geovany Soto left in the sixth inning for the Chicago Cubs with soreness in his right shoulder. He is expected to be out of action until the weekend at the earliest…..Colby Rasmus got his first big league start for the St. Louis Cardinals and hit second in the batting order.  Joe Thurston got the start at 3b for the Cards as they continue to mix and match players to replace the injured Troy Glaus. Skip Schumaker got the start at second base and hit lead off…..Tory Tulowitzki hit his second home run in as many days as he looks to rebound from an injury plagued 2008. At least he moved up one spot in the lineup with Clint Barmes starting at second base sliding into the 8th spot in the batting order. Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton were in the lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks with Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes on the bench…..Jody Gerut took a seat on the bench for the San Diego Padres with the Los Angeles Dodgers starting a lefty. Scott Hairston took his place in the lineup. Orlando Hudson stole his second base of the season for the Dodgers.

American League:

Alex Gordon keeps right on rolling. I recently posted about his numbers from spring training and his work with new batting coach Kevin Seitzer and the hot streak continued Tuesday with Gordon’s first home run of the season….. Josh Beckett was dominant for the Boston Red Sox, striking out 10 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Matt Joyce and Gabe Gross were both in the lineup for the Rays with B.J. Upton currently on the disabled list…..Brandon Lyon blew his first save opportunity of the season for the Detroit Tigers. Nothing ruins a fantasy baseball day more than getting a 5 whip ratio from your closer……Brandon Morrow also blew his first save attempt of the year for the Seattle Mariners. Delmon Young got the start for the Minnesota Twins in place of Jason Kubel with the Mariners starting a left-hander on the mound….Rookie Trevor Cahill got the start for the Oakland Athletics and struggled with his control, giving up 5 hits and 5 walks in 4+ innings. Matt Holliday was out of the lineup for Oakland due to an illness.

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Fantasy Baseball – The Daily Dirt from Monday

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 7th, 2009

Finally baseball is here and the fantasy baseball season is underway. Here is a recap of all the games from Monday from a fantasy baseball perspective.

National League:

I like Hiroki Kuroda of the Los Angeles Dodgers this year. I think with a year under his belt in the United States and being more comfortable with his surroundings leads to an even better year in 2009, albeit one with lower strikeout numbers than I usually like to have from a starting pitcher. His opponent Jake Peavy is going to struggle to win many games with the San Diego Padres with their anemic offense even though his other key numbers, ERA, Whip and strikeouts will be good to great. I expect a big year from Matt Kemp, Dodger outfielder as well, although his rbi total will be limited batting seventh…..Carlos Zambrano was a good pick heading into this season because of how far he was sliding in drafts. It always amazes me how much fantasy owners discount proven performance from year to year when a player has a season below expectations the previous year. In the Cubs closer watch, Carlos Marmol was perfect and Kevin Gregg gave up a run with two hits. Keep an eye on this battle as manager Lou Pinella has two options in the bullpen so if Gregg falters early, Pinella could be quick to change up the roles…..Jason Motte, first game as closer for the St. Louis Cardinals, err, not so good. Owners of Chris Perez should stick with their guy. The pressure of closing in a regular season game compared to spring training is a little different story. It looks like Tony LaRussa will be alternating Brendan Ryan and Skip Schumaker at 2b and Brian Barden and David Freese at 3b, affecting the fantasy value of all four players…..Emilio Bonifacio had three stolen bases for the Florida Marlins out of the lead-off spot. Austin Kearns got the opening day start for the Washington Nationals putting Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes on the bench…..Interesting things happened in the Arizona – Colorado game. For the Rockies, Seth Smith hit second, pushing Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Ianetta down to the 7th and 8th spots in the batting order. Ian Stewart got the start at second base ahead of Clint Barmes. For the D-Backs, they benched 3B Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton, instead opting for Eric Byrnes and Tony Clark, who hit two home runs…..Johan Santana had a decent start but did not make it through a full six innings due to a high pitch count. Aaron Harang looking to bounce back from a down year in 2008 was okay, but not digging that 2.0 whip ratio. Darnell McDonald got the start for the Cincinnati Reds over Chris Dickerson with the Mets starting the left-handed Santana.

American League:

Cesar Izturis, a sleeper in AL only leagues, hit a home run and stole a base from the ninth spot in the Baltimore Orioles lineup. For the New York Yankees, Xavier Nady started in the outfield over Nick Swisher…..Travis Sinder hit a home run for the Toronto Blue Jays. Really, is there a reason that he is hitting ninth in the batting order??? That needs to get corrected soon if the Toronto Blue Jays are serious about trying to win this season. Newly acquired Josh Anderson started in left field for the Detroit Tigers with Carlos Guillen moving to designated hitter which put Marcus Thames on the bench. Bradon Inge hit a home run for the Tigers. He has always seemed to hit better playing in the infield than as a catcher so he could see some improvement this year if your fantasy baseball team can absorb the low batting average…..Good opening day start for Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners. This could be the season he finally delivers on the hype from two years ago and contends for the Cy Young award. Mike Redmond got the start at catcher for Minnesota with Joe Mauer out of action….How far has the Oakland Atheltics pitching staff fallen that Dallas Braden was their first game starter this year? Nomar Garciappara got the start at 1B with Travis Buck sitting against the left-handed starter. Joe Saunders continues to just win games for the Los Angeles Angels.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Auctions

Posted by Todd Lammi on April 1st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

If your favorite day of the year is your fantasy baseball draft, I am about to introduce you to something that is ten times better, and that is a fantasy baseball auction. No longer do you have to worry about players sliding to you in the draft, or having the 10th pick in the first round, knowing that you have no shot at nine players in front of you, in an auction, you have much more control of what goes on around you.

While there is the extra excitement of bidding on players and trying to slip through your favorite sleeper for $2, there are also additional challenges presented in an auction that you do not face in a draft. In addition to tracking the players that have been picked, the players still left on the board and your own team and its stats, in an auction format, you also have to track dollars for your roster and the entire league.

For most players when participating in a fantasy baseball league auction for a first time, they usually run into one of two problems, either they run low on money with multiple players left to buy, or else they have already filled their roster, but have several dollars left to spend.

I am going to give you a couple of tips in order to prevent this from happening and to ensure that your first auction experience is a great one.

When you are preparing for the auction, make sure that the dollars you have assigned to each player add up to the total dollar amount that is to be spent for the league. For example, if you are playing in a 15 team league, and each team has $200 to spend, make sure that the combined salaries you have for the number of players that need to be bought equals $3,000 ($200 x 15). This way you will have closer to a true dollar amount of what a player is worth. So many of the cheat sheets or projections floating around out there provide dollar totals, but they do not add up to what a league total dollar amount is. Each league is different in roster size and team size so make sure that your dollar values are adjusted accordingly.

To make sure that you spend all of your allotted dollars and on the flip side, to make sure you do not run out of money, it is a good idea to go into the draft with dollar amounts assigned to each position on your roster. If you team budget is $200, determine what amount you want to spend for hitting and pitching. On average the split is roughly 70-30 skewed toward hitting. That means with a $200 budget you would plan on spending $60 on your pitching staff. Assuming you have a 10  man pitching staff, you dollar amounts would look something like this:

1Sp – $15

2Sp – $8

3Sp – $7

4Sp – $4

5SP – $2

6Sp – $2

1 Closer – $16

2RP – $2

3 RP – $2

4 RP – $2

You have $15 budgeted for an ace on your staff and $16 budgeted for a closer and so on down the line to fill out your rotation and bullpen. This gives you a good plan of attack to start with. If you happen to spend $17 for an ace starter, simply adjust by $2 another spot on your staff to make sure you hit the $60 mark if that was your allocation to build your staff with.

I usually try to leave $2 for each of the positions instead of $1. At the end of the draft when people are low on money, the auction at that point basically turns into a draft because each person is down to a dollar per player. By having $2 left per player, this ensures that you have a much greater chance of getting the players you want late in the draft.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With the final two weekends of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, let’s take a look at the latest movers for average draft position, using the results from Mock Draft Central for the NFBC scoring system (which is 15 team leagues) for the previous week.

James McDonald (+91) – in the running for the 5th starter position for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Don’t know why the Dodgers wasted time having him pitch in relief in spring and are just now trying to stretch him out. Gets overlooked by scouts because he does not have dominating stuff, but he always seems to get the job done.

Brett Anderson / Trevor Cahill (+63/+61) – I wrote about both of these players in one of my earlier posts about rookies who would eventually have a job this season. With Gio Gonzalez recently sent down and Justin Duchscherer starting the season on the disabled list, it looks like Cahill and Anderson coudl slot into the number four and five spots in the rotation.

Leo Nunez (+50) – With Matt Lindstrom bothered by a strained rotator cuff, Nunez might have a chance to grab some saves in the early the season for the Flordia Marlins. If you own Lindstrom in a league, you should look to grab Nunez as a handcuff.

Brett Gardner (+43) – Gardner seems to be moving up the draft board every weel and the last wee has been no exception. The problem for him is Melky Cabrera has caught fire the last few weeks of spring training so the decision could go down to the final week. There is still a chance that Cabrera gets traded to someone in need of an outfielder at some point this year, regardless of where he starts the season for the New York Yankees.

Jordan Zimmerman (+42) – he is a sleeper no more, now it will take a  pick in the 15-17th round to get him in a 14-15 team mixed draft league. He starts the season as the number five starter for the Washington Nationals, but in all likelihood he will be the best pitcher by the end of the season, if he is not already.

Chris Getz (+42) – has been named the starting second basemen for the Chicago White Sox and his value get could a little bit more of a boost if he hits in the top two spots in the batting lineup as he has been the last few games. He is up to four stolen bases so far in spring.

Jordan Schafer (+38) – Schafer is hitting close to .400 this spring with five stolen bases and seems to have pulled ahead of Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson the starting center field job with the Atlanta Braves. Schafer ended last year in AA so there is always the possiblity the Braves let him start the year in AAA if they feel his defense his below Blanco’s and Anderson’s.

Micah Owings (+35) - Owings seems to have locked up the fifth starter position with the Cincinatti Reds. He is a good late round pick if you are looking for strikeouts.

Emilio Bonifacio (+33) – Bonifacio has had a huge couple of games in spring training recently so people seem to be using that as a reason to draft him. Based on the current Florida Marlins roster however, he does not have a starting job, so if he makes the team, it will be as a utility man.

Ivan Rodriguez (+28) – recently signed by the Houston Astros, Rodriguez looks like he will start the season batting second. He should be able to squueze out another good season at age 37 and is one of the few sources for steals from the catcher position.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 26th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball catchers.

Tier 1 – Russ Martin, Brian McCann

Tier 2 – Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez

Tier 3 – Ryan Doumit, Chris Ianetta, Bengie Molina

Tier 4 – Jorge Posada, A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez

Tier 5 – Kelly Shoppach, Ivan Rodriguez, Chris Snyder, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli

Tier 6 – John Baker, Miguel Olivo, Brandon Igne

Tier 7 – Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, George Laird, Yadier Molina, Jesus Flores, Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas, Brian Schneider

Martin and McCann are going two picks apart according to their average draft position (ADP). However, I would opt for Martin over McCann every time with the bonus of 20 steals coming from the catcher position. Martin’s power might fluctuate more from year-to-year in the 13-20 home run range, while McCann has 20-25 home run power, the steals more than make up for the difference since the other categories of batting average, runs and rbi are close.

Soto is close to the first tier, but I would like to see his put up the same stats for a second year in a row before I bump him up to that group. The power potential he had exhibited in 2007 in the minor leagues carried over last season as he clubbed the same number of home runs as McCann did. Throw the last season out the window for Victor Martinez as he battled injuries that reduced his power. He has already hit three home runs this spring, which is more that what he hit last season in 266 at bats. Expect a return to numbers that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Doumit’s power numbers in 2008 were pretty much in line with what he had done the two previous seasons, when you look at the at bat totals. The .319 average might have been a little over his head. His career minor league minor league average was .296, and I see him more in the .285-.300 range annually. Iannetta offers a little more power than Doumit, but a lower batting average, even taking into account Ianetta plays his home games at Coors field. Bengie Molina always seems to be underrated. He is old and plays for the San Francisco Giants who have a somewhat weak offense, but that benefits Molina who hit cleanup and has driven in 80+ runs each of the last two seasons. The only downside is his runs scored which  has been below 46 the last two years with the Giants.

Posada comes off of shoulder surgery in 2008 that limited him to only 168 at bats. So far this spring, he seems in line to be ready to play on Opening Day. He might be limited to around 400-450 at bats, which puts him at around 13-15 home runs, with 55 runs scored and 65 rbi. Pierzynski, or AJP for ease of typing purposes is solid every season. You know what you are going to get with him, an average around .280 with 14 home runs, 60 rbi and 60 runs scored. Ramon Hernandez moves to the the National League this season and should be able to put up similar stats to AJP but with a batting average in the .255-.265 range.

Shoppach has some thunder in his bat, but the question is how many at bats is he going to get this season. I am pegging him for around 400 which gives him the possibility to hit 15-20 home runs. He has already hit four home runs this spring. Rodriguez heads to the National League after recently signing with the Houston Astros. It looks like from his first few games with the Astros that he might be hitting second in the batting order. I see Rodriguez putting up a stat line of .270 with 70 runs, 12 home runs, 65 rbi and 8 stolen bases. Chris Snyder offers 15 home run power with a some batting average downside. He seemed to get more hack happy last season as he struck out 34 more time in only eight more at bats than the previous year. Wieters has already been told he is being sent down to the minors, but he should be back in the major leagues by May. Of course, this is the Baltimore Orioles we a re talking about so even that might not be a certainty. He is hitting .343 this spring with more walks than strikeouts (4/3) which is always nice to see from a young hitter. Napoli is recovering from shoulder surgery and there is a chance that he might start the season on the disabled yes. He has 20 home run potential, but because he has never had more than 269 at bats in the previous three seasons, his runs scored and rbi remain low.

Baker was part of the Oakland A’s draft made famous by the book “Moneyball”. Now in his first year as a starting major league catcher, he has a chance to put up some decent numbers for the Florida Marlins. It looks like Baker will be hitting second this season. Expect a year around .280-70-11-60. Miquel Olivo was promised the starting catcher by the Kansas City Royals back in November and so far the coach speak has them sticking with the plan. Even with Olivo as the starter, John Buck will still start possibly 2-3 games per week. Olivo has the power to hit 15 home runs so if he can start off the season hot, he will keep Buck relegated to bench duty. Inge should see a return to 500 at bats this season as a starter once again. That may be a bad thing if you have him on your fantasy roster as the more at bats does more damage to your team batting average. He has the ability to put up some decent numbers, to the tune of 15 home runs and 70 rbi, but you better have a lot of .300 hitters on your team to carry his sub .230 average.

Tier 7 I have in no real order. Best I can say is put all of the names in the hat, pull one out and hope you get Yahtzee. You only would have to worry about a tier 7 in leagues that require you to draft two catchers. If you do, make sure you don’t get sutck with one of them. There is no reason to end up with two weak catchers or even one weak catcher even in a 14 or 15 team league. Don’t let the catcher spot on your roster put you at a disadvantage against the other owners in your league.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 23rd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball third basemen.

Tier 1 – David Wright

Tier 2 – Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez,

Tier 3 – Chipper Jones

Tier 4 – Garrett Atkins, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Guillen

Tier 5 – Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Aubrey Huff, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Tier 6 – Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Chone Figgins

Tier 7 – Joe Crede, Josh Fields, Bill Hall, Scott Rolen, Ian Stewart

I currently have Wright ranked number three overall. His stolen bases could take a hit with Jerry Manuel the manager now for the entire season, but he is outstanding in every category.

Evan Longoria I have as the second best third basemen. He put up the same number of home runs as Aramis Ramirez in 100 less at bats last season. In another year, Longoria will be battling David Wright and A-Rod for the  number one ranking at 3b.

Alex Rodriguez looks like he will miss roughly 25-30 games which puts him just at the end of round two in 15 team league drafts. He still should end up around30 home runs, 90 rbi and 15 steals.

Chipper Jones has a tier all to himself.  His current ADP puts him at 54, or the end of the fourth round. If you select him, make sure you take a quality backup later in the draft knowing Jones will miss at least 20-30 games during the season. The .320+ average makes him worth the pick.

I wanted to put Atkins in Tier 3, but with numbers that have fallen two years in a row and Ian Stewart lurking to steal some at bats, plus the potential for a trade out of Colorado he becomes Tier 4. Cantu’s season was not that much of a breakout last year except for batting average. His numbers in 2006 showed the potential for 25+ home runs if he could get the at bats. He also adds flexibility to your roster by qualifying at 1b. I love the fact that fantasy people owners discount players coming off of injuries or down years like there is no such thing as a bounce back. I like Guillen in Tier 4 and best of all you can probably get him later in the draft as he has been going behind 7 other third basemen I have not even listed yet. Qualifies at 3b, 1B and will qualify at OF in week four. Is a solid .300 hitter and with the potential to steal 10-15 bases plus hit 20 home runs makes him undervalued in drafts for this year.

Tier 5, I threw a bunch of people together. Their stats are all kind of similar. I like Beltre a little bit more for the bonus steals he can provide. Zimmerman could be a nice pick if he can recover his power after his injuries last season. Huff is due for regression after doubling his home run total from 2007. Encarnacion seems to have promise but has yet to fulfill it yet. Reynolds’ stats look like Ryan Howard lite with the strikeouts and low batting average. Kouzmanoff plays in the vast wasteland that is Petco Park and is surrounded by the weakest lineup in baseball.

Tier 6, I don’t think that Melvin Mora has discovered the fountain of youth in his late thirties so expect a drop off in performance in 2009. Alex Gordon is still trying to live up to the hype generated several years ago. He is always drafted way too early in fantasy drafts as people expect his breakout season to come one of these years. Figgins was a third or fourth round pick a few years ago, but a few hamstring injuries later and his stats seem Ryan Theriot like, which is okay, but not for a corner infielder.

This might be the last season for Josh Fields to prove that he belongs in the major leaues with Dayan Viciedo pushing him. Don’t waste a pick on Bill Hall, Matt Gamel will be up for the Milwaukee Brewers at some point this season if he can improve his fielding.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball second basemen.

Tier 1 – Chase Utley

Tier 2 – Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips

Tier 3 – Alexei Ramirez, Dan Uggla

Tier 4 – Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Lopez

Tier 5 – Kaz Matsui, Rickie Weeks, Luis Castillo

Tier 6 – Howie Kendrick, Alexi Casilla, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson,  Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes

Tier 7 – Akinroi Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Jeff Baker, Chris Getz

Utley looks to be on track for opening day so I have him still rated as the only tier 1 player. It is interesting to see how many players have fallen out of the top 15 players in just the last two years that Kinsler and / or Pedroia are now going in the first round in some drafts.

Tier 2 represents all second round picks in a 15 team league. I like Kinsler for his power / speed combination. If he ever gets a full healthy season of 600+ at bats, he is looking at a potential 25 home run 30 steal season. I have Roberts next ahead of Pedroia. I have written in previous articles how I think Pedroia’s stats will see some regression this year. Roberts is consistently in the 10 home run, 55 rbi 40 steal range and I like the steals more that banking on Pedroia having a repeat performance of 2008. I have Pedroia ranked ahead of Phillips, giving the edge to Pedroia in runs scored and batting average, the edge to Phillips in home runs and stolen bases. I don’t want to sacrifice average the first five rounds of the draft so I would take Pedroia over Phillips if presented with the choice.

Alexei Ramirez has been going toward the end of the third round in most mock drafts. He will offer the added flexibility of being eligible at shortstop in the fourth week of the season assuming your league has the standard 20 games played rule to qualify at a position. Uggla’s current ADP is 63, which slots him at the end of round 4 / start of round 5. He homered, walked or struck out in 45% of his plate appearances in 2008.

At this point, most fantasy baseball owners draft sheets will vary quite a bit. I like Kelly Johnson next ahead of Cano. I think Cano is one of the more overrated fantasy baseball players. He always seems to get drafted 3-4 rounds earlier than he should. Possibly because he plays for the Yankees, or the fact that he hit .342 in 2006. Johnson I grade ahead of Cano because of the extra 5-10 bases he will swipe. DeRosa and Lopez I have grouped together next with DeRosa getting the edge for more consistency in batting average and to hedge against Lopez not being able to duplicate his stats at home from last season.

Tier 5, time to throw a dart at the board, as all of the players have speed, but also carry injury risk. Matsui has had over 400 at bats only once in the past four years so to say he is an injury risk is a bit of an understatement. He is currently penciled in as the Astros lead off hitter. A healthy 2009 could see Matsui with a line of 5 hr 50 rbi and 30 steals. Weeks has put up similar stats the last two years but his .240 average is a killer. At this point of the draft, Castillo is the last second basemen with the ability to steal 20+ bases, outside of possibly Felipe Lopez. Castillo seems to be healthy in spring and could steal 30 for the New York Mets this year.

Tier 6 is a jumbled mass of bodies. Kendrick like Cano is way overrated as well. He has never been healthy for a full season and even combining his 2006-2007 numbers which would have put him at 600 at bats, gives him 9 hr 69 rbi and 11 steals with close to a .300 average, looks a lot like what I expect from Alexi Casilla this season. Lopez could have a chance for a few more stolen bases if he improves his rate of 50% from last season (8 steals in 16 attempts). Hudson, Polanco, Sanchez, Fontenot, Barmes all offer similar stats in the 1o home run-60 rbi-10 stolen base range. Barmes also qualifies at shortstop.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 19th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

We have focused quite a few articles on ADP (average draft position) recently so now I want to tie that into another fantasy baseball tool which is the tiered system for player rankings.

A lot of the magazines or web sites for fantasy baseball have cheat sheets, but it is mostly a ranking by position of one to whatever number.  While it is good to know the order of what player you would draft before another on your sheet, most of the time you don’t have an idea of what the difference is between the two players.

That’s where having a tiered system to your draft sheet comes in handy, so you have an idea of what round you can take a particular player in, or if you can wait several rounds and get the same type of stats. It will also help prepare you so you are not left out if there is a run on a particular position.

If you combine a tiered system to drafting, along with doing your own mock draft based on your draft slot and using ADP, you will be able to improve your draft performances. Let’s take a look at first base and how a tiered system would apply.

First Base:

Tier 1 – Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera

Tier 2 – Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira, Lance Berkman

Tier 3 – Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez

Tier 4 – Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, Derek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Chris Davis

Tier 5 – Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Jason Giambi, Mike Jacobs, Adam LaRoche

Tier 6 – James Loney, Casey Kotchman, Pablo Sandoval, Todd Helton

Tier 7 – Ryan Garko, Nick Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Chad Tracy

Pujols and Cabrera are the top two players at first base so they get the Tier 1 ranking. In 2007, check the numbers, they had almost identical seasons with Cabrera’s slightly better. In 2008, home runs were the same, rbi went to Cabrera, runs to Pujols, but the big difference was the 60 point difference in batting average. Pujols was 30 points higher than the year before and Cabrera was roughly 30 points lower than the year before. Tier 2, Howard for his huge power numbers, although his average costs you anywhere from 2-3 points (from a team average of .283 to .280) by rostering him instead of a Texeira or Berkman. Texeira and Berkman round out the second tier because they are both .300 average, 30 plus home runs and 100+ runs and rbi, with Berkman getting the additional handful of stolen bases. Tier 3, I have Fielder, who I think is closer to a .280 35 hr 100 rbi hitter, grouped with Mourneau who falls just outside of Berkman and Texeira for inconsistencies in 30 home run power from year to year and Adrian Gonzalez who is 30-100-100 in the .280 average range.

Heading into the draft using the #5 draft slot as an example, assuming a 15 team league and using the ADP from Mock Draft Central, the question is who is your first round pick, assuming Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Jose Reyes are gone. With Alex Rodriguez hurt, pick #5 to me becomes the biggest question mark pick of the first round. You need to be able to have someone close in ability to the top four players already taken, and someone better than the players that are picked 6-15 in the remainder of the round. If you are considering Cabrera with the 5th pick, you need to look at your tier list and the ADP and see what that means. My question if I had that pick is, if I do not take Cabrera in round 1, what are my other options? Based on ADP, there is a chance Fielder slides to your second pick (26 overall) but maybe not. In round three, there is a chance to get Gonzalez with pick 35 overall. If you miss Gonzalez in round 3, who is probably the last sure thing to get at least .280-30-100-100 at first base, it becomes a little bit more of a gamble for stat accuracy (the likelihood that your statistical prediction comes true, based on your definition of true, whether you allow for a 2% variance, 5% variance or whatever the number may be).

I put Kevin Youkilis in Tier 4, I am not sold that he is a 30 home run hitter. Putting him in Tier 4 means I will not be drafting him, because his ADP is 40, which means he would most likely be gone by my pick in round 4, which would be 56 overall, assuming the #5 draft slot. I think to take him that early in the third round would be way too much of a risk. Joey Votto and Derek Lee I have grouped together next in Tier 4, they are both players I see in the .290-25-90-90-8 (sb) range. Chris Davis has 35-40 home run potential, and also the potential to break the strikeout record. He does have the ability to hit for average in the .270 range so I group him with Carlos Delgado, both players I see around .275-35-95-100.

If I have someone from one of the first four tiers, I would be happy at frst base. Anyone after that I would be disappointed. The players in Tiers 1-4 make up 13 players. If it is a 15 team league, that means at least two teams are ending up with players in Tier 5 or below. The possibility is it could be even more if someone takes a first basemen in the Top 4 Tiers and later adds another Top 4 Tier first baseman as a corner infielder. That is why I always chart the draft of other owners by position so I have an idea of how each team is filling in their roster to anticipate who might be going after which position.

Tier 5 I don’t have really grouped in any particular order. By this time you are probably in round 12 or later of your draft and your pick will be made on where you stand in certain categories. Tier 5 represents players that can provide 25+ home runs or more. Tier 6 represents players with the ability to hit 15-20 home runs, but also hit .280 to .300. Tier 7 represents players that could produce some decent stats, but each have question marks surrounding them. For Garko, does he lose at bats to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez? Does Nick Johnson lose at bats due to another injury or to Adam Dunn as Washington tries to rotate one of their 10 outfielders? Ishikawa should be the recepient of the majority of at bats in San Francisco assuming Brian Sabean does not let Rich Aurilia get another 400+ at bats. Tracy could lose at bats depending on the health of Eric Byrnes in Arizona.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Closer ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for closers and relief pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 J. Papelbon 59 Dan Wheeler 295
2 Brad Lidge 67 Grant Balfour 297
3 Joe Nathan 79 Rafael Perez 297
4 F. Rodriguez 81 Hong-Chih Kuo 297
5 Mariano Rivera 87 Kevin Gregg 307
6 Joakim Soria 95 C.J. Wilson 313
7 Bobby Jenks 106 Jon Rauch 313
8 Jose Valverde 113 Joel Zumaya 314
9 J. Broxton 117 Rafael Soriano 316
10 Brian Fuentes 118 Takashi Saito 318
11 Carlos Marmol 125 Jeff Samardzija 319
12 B.J. Ryan 126 Ryan Franklin 323
13 Matt Capps 144 F. Rodney 327
14 F. Cordero 148 Hideki Okajima 332
15 Kerry Wood 150 M. Kobayashi 334
16 Brian Wilson 162 Scot Shields 338
17 Mike Gonzalez 168 J. Masterson 342
18 Heath Bell 169 Miguel Batista 345
19 Matt Lindstrom 173 Jensen Lewis 349
20 Trevor Hoffman 184 Mark Lowe 349
21 Chad Qualls 190 Scott Linebrink 351
22 Joey Devine 191 J. Isringhausen 358
23 Huston Street 197 Octavio Dotel 365
24 Joel Hanrahan 200 Braden Looper 367
25 Frank Francisco 212 M. Delcarmen 368
26 Brandon Lyon 227 Jeremy Accardo 369
27 Brad Ziegler 232 Tyler Walker 373
28 Chris Perez 248 Tony Pena 377
29 J.J. Putz 253 Eric Gagne 378
30 George Sherrill 257 R. Betancourt 379
31 Troy Percival 258 Scott Downs 388
32 Chris Ray 291 Leo Nunez 392
33 Manny Corpas 291 Chad Cordero 392
34 Jason Motte 293 Aaron Heilman 398
35 Dan Wheeler 295 Juan Cruz 411
36 Grant Balfour 297 Ryan Madson 412
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 Johan Santana 22 Gavin Floyd 171 T. Wellemeyer 309
2 Tim Lincecum 28 Matt Garza 176 David Bush 310
3 CC Sabathia 37 Scott Baker 181 Jamie Moyer 310
4 Cole Hamels 45 Erik Bedard 185 Taylor Buchholz 311
5 Jake Peavy 48 Ted Lilly 191 Ian Snell 312
6 Brandon Webb 50 C. Kershaw 194 Brad Penny 312
7 Roy Halladay 50 Aaron Cook 197 Anibal Sanchez 312
8 Dan Haren 59 Joe Saunders 197 Joe Blanton 314
9 F. Liriano 72 Jair Jurrjens 203 Ben Sheets 315
10 Josh Beckett 75 Johnny Cueto 206 Clay Buchholz 316
11 Roy Oswalt 78 Gil Meche 216 Anthony Reyes 317
12 Cliff Lee 78 C. Wang 216 Sean Marshall 317
13 James Shields 84 Jered Weaver 216 Gio Gonzalez 317
14 Chad Billingsley 84 J. Duchscherer 220 Glen Perkins 320
15 Ervin Santana 88 Mike Pelfrey 233 Barry Zito 320
16 Scott Kazmir 93 W. Rodriguez 236 J. Bonderman 321
17 John Lackey 94 Andy Pettitte 237 Sean Gallagher 321
18 Felix Hernandez 95 Jon. Sanchez 239 Kyle Davies 336
19 A.J. Burnett 105 John Maine 241 Tim Redding 336
20 Jon Lester 105 Scott Olsen 245 Homer Bailey 336
21 D. Matsuzaka 113 Jesse Litsch 245 Andrew Miller 337
22 Yovani Gallardo 116 Hiroki Kuroda 249 D. McGowan 338
23 E. Volquez 116 Oliver Perez 258 John Lannan 338
24 C. Zambrano 125 Jeremy Guthrie 263 J.P. Howell 339
25 Rich Harden 126 Chris Carpenter 264 Greg Smith 339
26 Ricky Nolasco 126 Ubaldo Jimenez 264 Edwin Jackson 340
27 Matt Cain 127 A. Galarraga 271 Pedro Martinez 340
28 Justin Verlander 132 John Smoltz 274 Rich Hill 341
29 Javier Vazquez 132 Manny Parra 276 J. de la Rosa 346
30 A. Wainwright 136 K. Kawakami 278 Shaun Marcum 351
31 Zack Greinke 138 Paul Maholm 284 Tim Wakefield 355
32 Brett Myers 143 Koji Uehara 288 Trevor Cahill 357
33 Chris Young 151 F. Carmona 289 Tim Hudson 362
34 Josh Johnson 153 Mark Buehrle 290 Dana Eveland 362
35 Randy Johnson 157 A. Sonnanstine 292 Shawn Hill 365
36 John Danks 158 Philip Hughes 297 Jon Garland 366
37 Derek Lowe 161 Kyle Lohse 303 Dallas Braden 386
38 Ryan Dempster 164 Kelvim Escobar 305 Brian Bannister 391
39 Aaron Harang 166 Bronson Arroyo 307 Micah Owings 394
40 Kevin Slowey 169 Randy Wolf 308 Kevin Millwood 400
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 16th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for outfielders.

Rank Outfield ADP Outfield ADP Outfield ADP
1 Grady Sizemore 6 Xavier Nady 157 Josh Willingham 304
2 Ryan Braun 7 Milton Bradley 158 Josh Anderson 304
3 Josh Hamilton 12 Pat Burrell 158 Jack Cust 304
4 Matt Holliday 16 Eric Byrnes 173 Chase Headley 304
5 B.J. Upton 19 Conor Jackson 176 Daniel Murphy 305
6 Carlos Beltran 21 Adam Jones 185 Ken Griffey 305
7 Manny Ramirez 22 Justin Upton 192 Felix Pie 308
8 Carlos Lee 23 Hideki Matsui 196 Nyjer Morgan 309
9 Alfonso Soriano 24 Jeremy Hermida 197 Ben Francisco 309
10 Carl Crawford 27 Denard Span 200 G. Anderson 310
11 Ichiro Suzuki 28 Rick Ankiel 208 Colby Rasmus 312
12 Nick Markakis 33 Nick Swisher 208 K. Fukudome 312
13 Matt Kemp 33 Fred Lewis 222 Jody Gerut 313
14 Jason Bay 35 Elijah Dukes 226 Jerry Owens 316
15 Alex Rios 38 Coco Crisp 227 Gary Matthews 317
16 Carlos Quentin 39 Delmon Young 227 Chris Duncan 317
17 Vlad Guerrero 42 C. Maybin 231 F. Gutierrez 317
18 C. Granderson 48 Adam Lind 233 Ryan Sweeney 322
19 Shane Victorino 49 Luke Scott 234 Matt Joyce 329
20 Jacoby Ellsbury 51 Carlos Gomez 240 Jerry Hairston 331
21 Nate McLouth 54 Ryan Church 247 Matt LaPorta 335
22 Corey Hart 55 Jeff Francoeur 248 Marcus Thames 339
23 Bobby Abreu 61 Shin-Soo Choo 250 Brian Giles 340
24 M. Ordonez 66 David DeJesus 256 Carlos Gonzalez 341
25 Adam Dunn 68 Juan Pierre 256 Brett Gardner 343
26 Hunter Pence 72 Randy Winn 266 Dexter Fowler 346
27 Jermaine Dye 92 Mike Cameron 268 Melky Cabrera 348
28 Ryan Ludwick 92 M. Cuddyer 275 Andruw Jones 359
29 Jay Bruce 94 Ryan Spilborghs 276 A. McCutchen 363
30 Torii Hunter 103 J.D. Drew 278 Mark Teahen 365
31 Chris Young 103 Michael Bourn 279 Eric Hinske 367
32 Johnny Damon 109 Jose Guillen 283 Rocco Baldelli 369
33 Andre Ethier 109 Jason Kubel 283 Matt Diaz 370
34 Vernon Wells 110 Aaron Rowand 287 W. Balentien 373
35 Raul Ibanez 120 Chris Dickerson 288 Steven Pearce 375
36 Nelson Cruz 129 Cody Ross 292 Seth Smith 381
37 Jayson Werth 132 David Murphy 293 Rajai Davis 382
38 Brad Hawpe 132 Juan Rivera 297 Travis Buck 385
39 L. Milledge 132 Travis Snider 298 Scott Podsednik 397
40 Willy Taveras 147 Skip Schumaker 301 Marlon Byrd 398
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 15th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for infielders.

Rank First Base ADP Second Base ADP Third Base ADP
1 Albert Pujols 3 Ian Kinsler 11 David Wright 4
2 Miguel Cabrera 7 Chase Utley 16 Alex Rodriguez 12
3 Ryan Howard 12 Dustin Pedroia 23 Evan Longoria 21
4 Mark Teixeira 13 Brandon Phillips 29 Aramis Ramirez 32
5 Lance Berkman 17 Brian Roberts 36 Chipper Jones 54
6 Justin Morneau 22 Alexei Ramirez 49 Garrett Atkins 76
7 Prince Fielder 25 Dan Uggla 65 Chone Figgins 79
8 Adrian Gonzalez 37 Robinson Cano 83 Aubrey Huff 90
9 Kevin Youkilis 40 Howie Kendrick 129 R.Zimmerman 96
10 Chris Davis 59 Jose Lopez 162 E. Encarnacion 120
11 Joey Votto 66 Kaz Matsui 181 Alex Gordon 145
12 Carlos Pena 69 Mark DeRosa 191 Jorge Cantu 146
13 Derrek Lee 75 Kelly Johnson 193 Adrian Beltre 153
14 James Loney 100 Placido Polanco 200 Carlos Guillen 196
15 Carlos Delgado 101 Rickie Weeks 201 Ty Wigginton 201
16 Paul Konerko 170 Orlando Hudson 265 Melvin Mora 207
17 Hank Blalock 180 Felipe Lopez 267 Mark Reynolds 212
18 Pablo Sandoval 203 Mark Ellis 267 Casey Blake 253
19 Jason Giambi 203 Akinori Iwamura 269 K. Kouzmanoff 256
20 Mike Jacobs 212 Alexi Casilla 277 Ian Stewart 266
Rank Shortstop ADP Second Base ADP Utility ADP
1 Hanley Ramirez 1 Russell Martin 45 David Ortiz 53
2 Jose Reyes 4 Brian McCann 48 Jim Thome 169
3 Jimmy Rollins 9 Joe Mauer 59 Travis Hafner 244
4 Rafael Furcal 60 Geovany Soto 65 Kendry Morales 272
5 Michael Young 84 Victor Martinez 74 Gary Sheffield 296
6 Stephen Drew 87 Ryan Doumit 119
7 Derek Jeter 95 Matt Wieters 130
8 Troy Tulowitzki 96 Chris Iannetta 138
9 Jhonny Peralta 99 Mike Napoli 155
10 J.J. Hardy 106 Bengie Molina 170
11 Miguel Tejada 126 Jorge Posada 210
12 O. Cabrera 160 Jeff Clement 240
13 Mike Aviles 170 A.J. Pierzynski 251
14 Ryan Theriot 186 R. Hernandez 253
15 Yunel Escobar 191 Dioner Navarro 258
16 Khalil Greene 204 Kurt Suzuki 268
17 Jason Bartlett 218 Kelly Shoppach 276
18 Edgar Renteria 239 Gerald Laird 303
19 Jed Lowrie 254 Yadier Molina 311
20 C. Guzman 274 Brandon Inge 312
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 6-10

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, lets look at rounds 6-10 of the draft with each player having the biggest upside or downside per round. The same assumptions are in play, 15 team mixed league fantasy baseball draft, using the average draft positions (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC scoring system.

Round 6:

Upside - Ryan Ludwick (88) – The upside is not there in terms of performance; I don’t see him surpassing his 37 home runs of a year ago, but with the his ADP currently as the third from last pick of round 6, I would be happy to take 32 home runs and a .285 average from him. Remember last year, he started off in a platoon situation with the St. Louis Cardinals, so the stats he put up were in roughly 75-100 at bats less than what he will have this season, barring any type of injury of course.

Downside - Scott Kazmir (90) – He has only thrown over 200 innings one time in the last three years. The injury risk alone makes push him below some of the pitchers that are going in rounds 7-9. Add in his wildness at the end of last season, he walked 18 batters in 25 2/3 innings in the postseason and the 6th round is too high for him.

Round 7:

Upside – Joakim Soria (94) – The seventh round is usually where I start looking for a closer in a 15 team draft if there is a solid pick that has slid that far. Soria at #94 fits that profile this season. It would be nice if his strikeout rate was a little bit higher, but with his earned run average and whip ratio, that might be nit-picking him too much. People discount him because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, but bad teams tend to play quite a few close games when they do win, so save chances will always be available. Currently he is the sixth closer being drafted.

Downside - James Loney (99) – One thing to keep in mind when projecting rookies or young players seeing at bats for the first time is that is not a good idea to prorate stats from a partial season and assume that he will carry those numbers into the following year. Case in point is James Loney who hit .331 in 344 at bats in 2007 with 15 home runs. A lot of people were projecting him for 25 home runs and 100+ rbi with a .300 average last season and he came up way short in the home run department with only 13. His career high in the minor leagues was 11 in 2005.

Round 8:

Upside – J.J. Hardy (105) – So I cheated a little bit and stuck him in round 8, although technically his ADP is the last pick of round 7. Hardy has put up two pretty similar seasons the last two years. His stats are pretty much in line with Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta, both of which are going a full one round higher than Hardy in mock drafts. Alcides Escobar may be the future for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop but he is no threat to Hardy’s job in 2009.

Downside - Joba Chamberlain (107) – Yes, in his 11 starts he put up some nice numbers, but he only had three wins to show for it, despite striking out 74 batters in 65 innings. In 2009, he is slated to open the season as the New York Yankees fifth starter which means he might get skipped a start or two for rainouts or additional rest. If the New York Yankees fall out of the play-off race late in the year, there is a chance they would limit his innings since he only threw a little over 100 last season. With Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edison Volquez and Yovani Gallardo all going after Chamberlain, in addition to Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, there are better options in the 8th round with less risk attached to them.

Round 9:

Upside - Brad Hawpe (132) – There is not much upside potential in round 9, but Hawpe being available at the end of the round is a good pick. He offers a solid average in the .290 range with 25 home runs and 100 rbi potential.

Downside – Nelson Cruz (128) – Fantasy players are going a little overboard I think in projecting Cruz’s 2009 numbers based on 115 at bats in 2008. Yes he has power potential, but remember that he is already 28, this is not a rookie we are talking about. Last year was his third season in the major leagues with the Texas Rangers. If you combine his stats over three seasons with Texas, his numbers are 22 home runs, 82 rbi and 6 steals in 552 at bats. Not bad numbers, but there is a reason those numbers are spread out over three years; the Rangers have never given him chance at 500+ at bats in one season. With Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones in the wings, there is no guarantee he gets those at bats this year either, unless he gets off to a blazing start to the season. There is a lot of risk to picking him in the 8th round with other alternatives still on the draft board.

Round 10:

Upside – Jorge Cantu (143) – It is nice to find a corner infielder with 30 home run power still on the board in round 10. Cantu offers the additional flexibility of qualifying at 1b and 3b. He also turned the magical age of 27 in January if you believe in that phenomenon.

Downside – Xavier Nady (149) Nady had a career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates / New York Yankees last season. With all career years, there is always a very good chance for regression the following season. The Yankees also have a few extra hitters floating around in their outfield so Nady might lose 100-150 at bats even as a starter, depdning how much playing time the combination of Melky Cabrera / Brett Gardner / Nick Swisher receive.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 1-5

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Today we are going to look at the one person with the most upside and downside per round based on a 15 team fantasy baseball draft with average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.

Round 1:

Upside - Ryan Braun (7) – Has a great chance of hitting over 40 home run this season, with 100+ runs and rbi’s. Add in 15-20 steals and the potential for a .300 average and Braun represents the best upside in the first round, based on his draft slot and the chance to exceed his 2008 numbers.

Downside - Ian Kinsler (9) – I like Kinsler, but not at number nine. He has never surpassed 518 at bats in the last three years and with the possibility to grab Pedroia / Phillips/ Roberts in the 2nd round or even Alexei Ramirez in the third round, Kinsler is going to leave some owners crushed if they are picking him this high.

Round 2:

Upside - Alfonso Soriano (24) – it was just two years ago he was 40-40 and that was for the lowly Washington Nationals. Prorate his numbers over a whole season last year and Soriano would have been at 44 home runs and 28 stolen bases. If you are slotted in the in the 7-9 spots of your draft order, count your lucky stars if Soriano falls to you in the second round.

Downside – Dustin Pedroia (23) There is some regression coming this year, there is little chance Pedroia duplicates his stats from last season. Take away 10 steals from Pedroia and a couple of home runs and you are looking at Kelly Johnson plus 30 points in batting average. Not a second round pick in my eyes with the other players available on the board.

Round 3:

Upside - Matt Kemp (38) The explosion is coming, it might be a year away, but soon we will be seeing regular seasons of 25 home runs and 35+ steals from Mr. Kemp. To get those steals in the middle of the third round, plus close to a .300 average is a bargain.

Downside - Kevin Youkilis (37) Not sure that I believe he is a 30 home run hitter after hitting only 16 in 2007. Even if I knew for certain he was going to hit 30, I would rather wait until round 4 or 5 and grab Chris Davis or Joey Votto.  There is better value available in the third round.

Round 4:

Upside - Alexei Ramirez (48) – his numbers are not that far off from the three second baseman that are going ahead of him in the draft, discounting Chase Utley. Ramirez will have the added bonus after three weeks into the regular season of being eligible at SS for those leagues with a 20 game rule.

Downside - Joe Mauer (53) – Mauer is coming off of kidney surgery in January and recently has been bothered by a sore back. There are four very good options at catcher available after Mauer, who could potentially start the season the disabled list.  I would take the following; Soto (67), Victor Martinez (78), Doumit (120) and Ianetta (133), all ahead of Mauer.

Round 5:

Upside - Chris Davis (65) – Has a chance to be this year’s Ryan Howard with a higher batting average. A nice upside pick with the chance to hit 35-40 home runs and bat over .290.

Downside - Magglio Ordonez (64) – Ordonez had a solid year last year, and is always around the .300 mark but with zero speed and with only 20-25 home run, spending a fifth round pick on him is not  a good investment. There are lots of outfielders you can select later on in the draft that will put up the same or better numbers than Ordonez will in 2008.

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