by Todd Lammi
In fantasy baseball leagues, the later into the season it goes, the harder it becomes to make up ground in one offensive category. Runs, home runs, RBI and stolen bases aren’t as hard to make up ground in, because as the season goes on, other owners lose interest, focus on other leagues, leave injured players in their lineup, etc., so even if your players don’t improve over the course of the season if they are struggling, there are still several points you will be able to make up in each category.
Batting average becomes a little bit trickier as you get further along into the season. If you have a team of .260 hitters that are playing every day and accumulating a large number of at bats, it becomes harder to make up ground in that category unless you are able to pull off several trades or you have multiple players that turn in monster second halves of the fantasy baseball season.
Discount BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for a moment, a higher strikeout rate for a hitter means the hitter has a reduced chance of ever having a batting average above .280 because of the fewer number of balls in play.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the some of the league leaders in strikeouts per plate appearances. If you own any of these hitters, now is the time to start looking to get them off your roster if you are looking to gain points in batting average.
1) Chris Davis - batting average .210 – his strikeout rate was high last year at 28% in a half season of at bats, but in 2009 it has soared ridiculously high to 42%.
2) Jarrod Saltalamacchia – .258 – his current strike out rate of 34% is in line with his 32% in 2008 which ranked him fifth in baseball
3) Miguel Olivo – .257 – he has been on a tear lately in the power department, but the hacking is not good for the average. His 33% is 7 percentage points higher than last season.
4) Mark Reynolds – .266 – 33% last year, 33% this year, when he does make contact, he hits it a long way, much like Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, etc.
5) Bill Hall - .197 – Why was he ever platooning with Mat Gamel? Luckily the Milwaukee Brewers have wised up, giving Hall only one start in the last week. His current strikeout ratio per plate appearance of 30% is close to his 28% mark of last season.
6) Carlos Pena – .238 – 30% this year vs. 28% last year. Good for power but a real drag to the bating average.
7) Delmon Young – .251 – Wow! What happened to him? Has never lived up to the hype since coming to the major leagues and seems to have gotten worse this year. His 30% strikeout ratio is way above last years mark of 18%. It might be okay if the transition to more strikeouts meant more power but that has not been the case with only two home runs in 171 at bats.
8.) Josh Fields – .233 – 29% this season vs. 31% in 2007 since he did not have many at bats in 2008. His inability to make contact is part of the reason the Chicago White Sox turned to Gordon Beckham earlier than expected.
9) Ryan Howard – .250 – 29% this year and last year. He will always been in the top 10, it is a matter of whether his home runs and RBI make him worth carrying on your fantasy baseball team.
10) Mike Jacobs – .226 – 28% in 2009 vs. 23% in 2008. He is hitting only .172 in June with one home run and one RBI in 64 at bats.
