2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

by Todd Lammi

With now less than a month from when your fantasy draft will most likely take place, it is time to examine draft day strategy for rotisserie leagues. For this article, I am going to assume a 14 or 15 team league with 5 x 5 categories that we are playing in.

In the first three rounds, I am looking for 5 category hitters. Each of my top three guys need to be able to steal bases and provide stats in the other categories as well. I know that from past draft experience, stolen bases tend to dry up pretty fast after the first few rounds, and I don’t want to be stuck taking a one dimensional player like a Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn or someone that is only going to steal 40 bases and contribute little in the other categories. Especially where an injured hamstring or a change in managers can cause the 40-50 steals you might have been expecting from that player to be cut in half. If you can accumulate 75-100 steals with your first three picks, you are well on your way to hitting the top three category goal of 150 to 160 stolen bases for your team.

While some people scoff at position scarcity, I am a firm believer in it. My goal is to build my team from the inside out, starting with the middle infield, then 3b, Catcher, then 1B and OF. The reason for this is I am looking to have an advantage at positions where the middle to bottom tier players are average to weak in stats and the player group is small.

For example, in the first round, I am looking for a SS, one of the top 3, then 3b, either A Rod or David Wright and then 2B if Utley is healthy or Ian Kinsler. The reason is if I pick 4th and take David Wright, it is much easier for me to find an outfielder later in the draft compared to another owner that takes an outfielder like Josh Hamilton or Carlos Beltran and has to find a third baseman late in the draft. The player pool for outfielders and first baseman is so much larger than the other positions that it is best to focus on those later in the draft when possible. Taking a player like Wright at a position where not many players steal bases, gives you another advantage against your competition because if you need steals later in the draft, it will be much easier to find them from an outfielder compared to another owner trying to find them at third base.

If I had the first pick in the draft, here is my first four round projection of selections. I would be looking to take Hanley Ramirez 1st overall, with back to back picks in round 2 and 3, some combination of Dustin Pedrioa / Brian Roberts / Brandon Phillips and Russ Martin (again, looking for steals and good stats at a weak position). In round 4 and 5 with back to back picks I would be looking at Rafael Furcal, Geovany Soto (for leagues where two catchers are required), or possibly Corey Hart.

My next few rounds I would focus on pitchers and then come rounds 10-13, focus on outfield and first base when there would still be plenty of talent available.

So in addition to doing fantasy baseball  mock drafts and checking out average draft positions, it helps to plot out your draft for what positions you might want for each of the rounds. By doing this, you will be surprised how many guys you are able to select when the real draft comes that you want, instead of watching guys get taken two or three picks before your turn that you were hoping slid to you or missing out on a hitter or pitcher run at a particular position.

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