by Todd Lammi
This is the third part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the group of starting pitchers ranked 41-60.
41) Carlos Zambrano – four straight seasons of declining value in terms of dollars earned. High number of innings pitched at an early age seem to be taking a toll on him now despite being only 28. Has spent time on the disabled list the last two seasons. Only positive sign in ‘09 was the strikeout rate bounced back last year to his 2005 level.
42) Tim Hudson – made the comeback from Tommy John surgery and fared pretty well at the end of the year outside of WHIP ratio. I would be conservative with his forecast and use his 2005 numbers as your baseline.
43) Rich Harden – injuries and lack of innings keep him this low in the rankings. Has not pitched over 150 innings in a season since 2004 when he tossed 189 2/3. Has spent time on the disabled list each of the past five seasons, missing an average of 80 days per year. Lack of innings has biggest impact on wins as his career high stands at only 11, also back in 2004.
44) Clay Buchholz – finished the season in strong fashion with a solid September, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.09 WHIP ratio. Batting average against dropped by 40 points in August and by another 32 points in September.
45) Kevin Slowey – wrist surgery ended his season in July. Strikeout rate improved but he was able to be hit easier in 2009 than in 2008. Fly ball pitcher that is prone to giving up home runs. Needs to start getting more ground balls to get his ERA down. Health is also a factor after spending parts of last two seasons on the disabled list.
46) Scott Kazmir – was scuffling in Tampa Bay in 2009, then a change of scenery to Los Angeles and he turned into a different pitcher, albeit in a small sample size. His 5.92 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for the Rays suddenly became 1.73 and 1.05 with the Angels. Health risk tempers expectations going forward with him missing a month or more of time in three of the last four years.
47) Jonathan Sanchez – was it really that easy for the light bulb to go on? Threw a no-hitter in early July and was then a totally different pitcher the second half of the season. Had a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP ratio after the All-Star break with a 10.4 K/9 rate., while holding batters to a .206 average. Going to be hard to maintain those numbers until he improves his walk rate which was 4.9 per nine innings.
48) J.A. Happ – ERA regression coming in 2010 as luck and a high strand rate held it under three last season. Needs to build on the improvements he made the second half of the season to his walk and strikeout rates.
49) Hiroki Kuroda – slightly increased his strikeout rate, but had his season cut short by injuries. His fantasy baseball ADP is lower than where he should be going for a guy with an ERA under 3.80 and a WHIP ratio in the 1.20 range since coming to the United States. One downside is he turns 35 in February and spent time on the disabled list each of the past two seasons.
50) Randy Wolf – his 2009 season came out of nowhere when you look at the last few years of his career. You can bet that his ERA and WHIP ratio are going back up in 2010. Has been healthy the last two seasons after missing three months per year with injuries from 2005 – 2007. Helped himself last season by holding left-handed hitters to a .159 batting average compared to a .283 mark in 2008.
51) Francisco Liriano – I had him ranked here before his performance in winter ball. Overall numbers for 2009 were not pretty, but a deeper look gives some reason for hope. Home numbers show a 4.55 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP ratio compared to 6.75 and 1.77 on the road so there is still skill there. Have to think some of it is mental now that he is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like from his comments that he has rediscovered his confidence as well as his fastball this off season. We shall see if he can carry that performance over to spring training.
52) Johnny Cueto – looked like he was taking a step up from his rookie season when he fell apart the second half of the year. Had 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half of the season. Numbers that fell off to 5.81 and 1.58 the second half of the year and included a stint on the disabled list. Stats also tailed off the second part of 2009 as well so you have to wonder if his body can hold up for an entire season.
53) Rick Porcello – racked up 14 wins at the tender age of 20. Second half had much better numbers with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP ratio. Has the stuff to improve his strikeouts totals. Ground ball rate in the 50th percentile bodes well for his future.
54) Jorge de la Rosa – was just a thrower the first half of the season with strikeouts and not much else. Morphed into a pitcher the second half of the season as ERA was 3.46 and WHIP ratio was 1.30 while maintaining a high K rate. Was much better on the road with 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP versus 5.21 and 1.44 at Coors Field.
55) Daisuke Matsuzaka – missed four months worth of time with shoulder problems, this coming on the heels of him missing almost a month in 2008 with the same issue. Looked okay in four starts in September and October but walks are still the biggest issue for him. I would set your expectations around his 2007 season with fewer strikeouts and less innings pitched.
56) Jeff Niemann – turned in a good rookie campaign after spending the previous two seasons in Triple-A. Stats were similar between the two halves except for the improvement in strikeouts, improving his rate from 5.1 to 7.4 after the All-Star break.
57) Ervin Santana – was not able to fully build on his 2008 breakout campaign as a sprained ligament in his elbow affected his first half stats. Was much better the second half of the season with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP ratio despite giving up 16 home runs in just under 100 innings.
58) Mark Buehrle – pretty consistent numbers every season except for some fluctuations to his strikeout rate. Ability to limit walks and keep home runs in check ensures that his ERA stays under four the majority of the years.
59) Joe Blanton – enjoyed his first full season in the National League, as he increased his strikeout per nine rate by 2.4. It’s always easier to pitch with confidence when you have a high scoring offense giving you 7.4 runs of support per start.
60) Shaun Marcum – missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the latter part of 2008. Tossed 15 2/3 innings in the minor leagues last season, so not enough of a sample size to draw any real conclusions from. No reason he can’t come back close to his 2007 season.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers.
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