by Todd Lammi
This is the fourth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of shortstop. If you miss out on one of the top tier shortstops early, your options in the middle to later in the draft will offer you the potential to pick up some players with stolen bases but not much power.
This position features quite a few question marks as we head into fantasy baseball draft season. Will Jose Reyes rebound from surgery and still be able to steal 50+ bases? Can J.J. Hardy bounce back in a new environment after being demoted to AAA last season? Does rookie Ian Desmond get the chance to start at shortstop or does he start the season in the minor leagues?
Those of some of the questions to consider as you prepare for key players to focus in on. Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.
1) Hanley Ramirez – the number one shortstop and the number two pick overall in fantasy baseball drafts. The stolen bases are trending downward going from 50 to 35 to 27 the last three seasons but the five-category package at a hard position to fill solidifies his status as the second best player.
2) Jimmy Rollins – even in an off year he still went 21-77-31. He gets 670+ at bats every year and will score a ton of runs in the Philadelphia Phillies batting order. There had to something wrong with him the first half of the season that was never reported with the stat line he put up. The numbers then returned to normal after the All-Star break as he went 14-43-15.
3) Troy Tulowitzki – much like Aaron Hill, he bounced back after a subpar 2008 and put up stats similar to his 2007 numbers. His career 57% success rate stealing bases means he might not run as much going forward. His 20 steals last year were 13 higher than his previous best total
4) Jose Reyes – the boom or bust pick of the shortstop position. His current fantasy baseball ADP has him going at the middle-to-end of the second round making him a potential steal IF he returns to form, as he was a top 5 pick in fantasy baseball drafts in previous seasons. Coming back from surgery due to a torn tendon in his hamstring and he has had some hamstring issues in the past make him a risky pick. He will be worth watching closely in spring training to see how well he is running.
5) Derek Jeter – he must not have liked what he heard about his regressing defense after the 2008 season. His new workout in the off-season I think played a part in him boosting his offensive numbers, coupled with a new stadium that is kind to hitters. Still showing no sign of slowing down at age 35.
6) Alexei Ramirez – solid numbers across the board in his second season as he improved his plate discipline from 18 walks and 61 strikeouts to 49 and 66 in 62 more at bats.
7) Miguel Tejada – showed no signs of easing up at age 35 and even boosted his numbers last year, adding eight doubles, 20 more RBI and tacking on an additional 30 points in batting average. Age, coupled with moving back to the American East where the division is stacked with good pitching should give Tejada’s numbers a slight decrease across the board.
8.) Jason Bartlett – where did the power come from? Went from a single home run in 2008 to 14 last year. A change in the batting order helped to account for the increase in numbers. Hit lead-off 218 times, where he hit half of his home runs from after batting ninth in all of 2008.
9) Asdrubal Cabrera – provides added flexibility of qualifying at second base and shortstop. Look for continued growth in 2010; should be bumped up a few spots in dynasty leagues.
10) Elvis Andrus – wow, nice season as 21-year-old rookie where he put up similar numbers in both halves of the season. When doing fantasy baseball projections, it is important to keep in mind position in the batting order as noted with Bartlett above. If Andrus ends up hitting second like he did part of the year in 2009, 40 stolen bases is a good possibility.
11) Yunel Escobar – the second best hitter in the Atlanta Braves lineup. Much more consistent in all categories than the next two players after him on my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.
12) Stephen Drew – struggled out the gate with an injury and never made up ground. His 2009 numbers look pretty much the same as 2007. When I hear the name Drew, I just think of missed at bats. Another player that gets drafted much higher than he should based on name and “potential”.
13) J.J. Hardy – there was no hot streak in 2009 to carry him like he had in 2008 and 2007. After spending the end of the of the season in the minor leagues and traded to the Minnesota Twins in the off-season, Hardy should see an improvement in numbers, especially if he gets slotted second in the batting order. Of some concern to note is his strikeout rate, which has crept up 7 percentage points over the last two years.
14) Everth Cabrera – quite a jump for Cabrera, going from a Rule-V pick that had never played above Single-A, to a solid shortstop for the San Diego Padres. Has some defensive issues but the team should let him work through them. An outside shot to lead all the shortstops in steals depending on the health of Reyes.
15) Alcides Escobar - handled himself quite well in 125 at bats with Milwaukee, batting .304 with four steals. No real power to speak of but should provide solid batting average and stolen bases in his first full season.
16) Rafael Furcal – another shortstop getting drafted much too high. His back surgery last July seems to have robbed him of his wheels. Without the 25+ steals, he is just another guy.
17) Marco Scutaro – not too often you see guys in their mid-30′s become full-time starters and parlay that into a nice payday. Should be good for another season of slightly reduced numbers now with the Boston Red Sox.
18) Erick Aybar – add up his numbers from 2007 and 2008 and presto, you have his 2009 year. He has decent speed, but unfortunately he has not learned to steal bases correctly yet, as evidenced by his 65% success rate in the minor leagues and 59% rate in the Show.
19) Ryan Theriot – no power, but he is nice to own if you are looking for stolen bases late in your fantasy baseball draft.
20) Orlando Cabrera – assuming he has a starting job.
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- Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be third basemen.
