by Todd Lammi
Continuing the sixth report looking at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders, here is a look at spots 21 – 40. I have a few people ranked lower than their current ADP in Josh Hamilton (obvious possible downside there) and Ichiro Suzuki as mentioned in the previous article. I also have several players ranked a few spots higher than their current ADP in Denard Span, Jay Bruce and Nolan Reimold.
Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 21-40 to see how they shake out.
21) Alfonso Soriano – knee bothered him all season and accounted for the drop in stolen bases among other things. Stats were good in April with seven home runs and four stolen bases before the knee issue started in May. Reunited with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo from Texas, so perhaps he gets his batting average back up.
22) Shane Victorino – solid consistent stats across the board as his 2009 line matched 2008 except for stolen bases. Those should be rebound a bit this year.
23) Josh Hamilton – injuries ruined his 2009 campaign limiting him to only 336 at bats. I would not expect a bounce back all the way to his 2008 numbers. Remember that his ‘08 season was driven by ridiculous first half numbers of 21 home runs and 95 RBI in only 377 at bats. In the second half of the season that year when the hot streak wore off, he was a more realistic 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 247 at bats.
24) Torii Hunter – a groin injury cut short what was turning in a career season for Hunter. Should be good for a 20-20 season in ‘10 with an average around .280
25) Hunter Pence – somewhat saved his season by hitting 12 home runs the last two months of the year. Has not been able to crack 80 runs scored or 85 RBI in any season in the Houston Astros lineup.
26) Ichiro Suzuki – spelled out my case for him yesterday. Average varies too much from year to year to automatically project him in the .350 range. Stolen bases could be held to same levels as 2009 if he bats second with the arrival of Chone Figgins.
27) Andrew McCutchen – it was quite a 2009 for McCutchen as upon arriving in the majors suddenly improved his power and his stolen base success rate from the minor leagues. Power was aided by a hot streak in August when he jacked eight home runs. The other three months of the season he managed to hit only four. Keep the power expectations around the same for 2010 with more stolen bases thrown in.
28) Nate McLouth – numbers were in line with the previous year when you factor in he had 100 less at bats. His 2008 batting average looks like an outlier as he been under .260 every other season.
29) Denard Span – Ichiro lite without the upside for batting average. Best thing is you can get him several rounds later than he should be going.
30) Jay Bruce – wrist injury limited him to 345 at bats, but still managed to deliver 20+ home runs. Average has not been pretty in the majors, but was .308 in the minor leagues so he has the chance to improve on that if he can improve his plate discipline. Made some gains in that department despite the smaller sample size by increasing his walk rate by three percentage points.
31) Alex Rios – a bad year all around turned even worse after being claimed by the Chicago White Sox on waivers. In 146 at bats with his new club, Rios managed to hit only .199. Have to chalk it up as one of those off years that players sometimes have (see Jason Bay 2007).
32) Raul Ibanez – was on fire the first half of the season before coming back down to earth in the second half. Hit just .232 with 12 home runs in 241 at bats after the All-Star break. Had a career year at age 37. Don’t expect a repeat in 2010.
33) Carlos Quentin – still has not had over 480 at bats in a full season after missing time with Plantar Fasciitis in foot last year and also missed time in 2007 with a bad hamstring and torn labrum. Power was tracking to 2008 numbers, but batting average regressed to years pre-2008. Career batting average now sits at .254.
34) Johnny Damon – spike in home runs driven by new home ballpark where he knocked out 17 of his 24 long balls. Still offers five category value which will be at a slightly lower level in a few categories depending where he signs.
35) Jason Kubel – gradual increases in playing time have led to upticks in stats the last two seasons. Inability to produce against left-handed pitching limits the upside to his numbers. Last season in 148 at bats, Kubel hit 2.43 with two home runs and 20 RBI against southpaws.
36) Adam Jones – had a big first off before tailing off after the All-Star break and an injury ended his season. Still needs to improve plate discipline to take the next step up in average.
37) Carlos Gonzalez – RBI total limited because 10 of his 13 home runs were solo shots. Like Jones, he still needs to work on plate discipline. Interesting though that his walk to strikeout ratio was the best when batting first, 13 to 24 vs. 15 to 46 in other spots in the batting order. Held his own against lefties, but with the depth of the Colorado Rockies, we will need to see if he plays full time against them in 2010.
38) Nolan Reimold – combine his Triple-A numbers and the Baltimore Orioles stats in 467 at bats and you get 70 runs, 24 home runs, 72 RBI and 14 steals. I think he will post a line similar to that in a full-time role this season. People want to discredit him as an older rookie but when you go to college and are advanced one level per year, you are going to hit the major leagues at the age of 25 or 26 so he is right on time in my eyes.
39) Brad Hawpe – four straight years of pretty similar numbers give or take a few stats. At bats always limited to around 500 as he sits against some left-handed pitching. Should be in line for more of the same in 2010 with the Rockies outfield depth.
40) Carlos Beltran – out at least the first month of the season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee and could be out even longer. Right now I have him down for 475 at bats. Should have a better guess as we get closer to the start of the season how his health is. If you are drafting now, I think this is the upside of his value.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be outfielders 41-60.
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