by Todd Lammi
This is the fifth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. Third base looks to be the shallowest position this season with a strong top tier of players and not many players with real upside potential later in the draft.
Keep in mind the additional flexibility offered by players like Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Chase Headley, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Teahen, Garrett Atkins and Jake Fox as they all qualify at two or more positions. If I have two players that are rated close together, I will usually give the nod to the player that qualifies at two positions to help manage my lineup during the season.
Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.
1) Alex Rodriguez – the number three overall pick and locked in still as the number one third basemen. Did not start running until the second half of the season when he stole 11 of his 14 bases so he should steal closer to 20 bases in 2010.
2) Evan Longoria – reduced his strikeout rate by 3% in 2009. If he can make similar strides this season, the closer he gets to pushing his batting average toward .300. Should post low double digit steal totals this year.
3) David Wright – some people are still drafting him ahead of Longoria in fantasy baseball mock drafts this year which I think is a mistake. No one has been able to produce a solid reason for Wright’s huge drop in power going from 33 home runs to only 10 last season. Was lucky to hit over .300 with a huge 40% hit rate which was four percentage points higher than his career high. Never seemed to find his swing all season as he had a seven percentage point increase in his strikeout rate. It could have been the result of the New York Mets new ballpark and Wright changed his batting approach to accommodate and / or all of the injury issues the Mets faced and the disappointing season affected him as well. Either way, I think it is prudent not to assume an automatic return to his 2008 stats.
4) Mark Reynolds – his 2010 fantasy baseball ADP has varied, from the beginning to the end of the second round in mixed league drafts. No chance for upside in batting average when he strikes out in 39% of his at bats. His strikeout rate has slightly increased the last two seasons so there is downside to his numbers. If hits .239 again as he did in 2008, that costs you approximately two to three points off your team’s batting average which means you need to offset him with high average hitters at other positions if you want to finish in the top three in the batting average category.
5) Ryan Zimmerman – rebounded from his torn labrum in 2008 and put up numbers similar to his 2007 season. Would be nice if he returned to his stolen bases total from 2006 but that is quibbling. For now, enjoy the four category performance that he provides.
6) Pablo Sandoval – qualifies at first base or third base. Should be a .300 hitter for the next 10 years or so. Power came quicker than expected as he blasted 25 home runs and 44 doubles at age 23. Hit over .300 every month last season except for July when he hit .298.
7) Aramis Ramirez – I have him ranked very close to Sandoval, but you know that Ramirez will some time during the season. Since 2002, he has had over 550 at bats in only 3 of 7 years. Missed time with a dislocated shoulder last season but should be fine to start 2010.
8.) Chone Figgins – has steadily raised his walk rate the past few seasons, giving him more times on base and opportunity for stolen bases. One negative though is his stolen base success rate has been slowly dropping the last five years, from 79%, 77%, 77%, 72% to 71% last season.
9) Michael Young – power spike at age 32 brought him back to 2005 levels, so expect some regression in 2010. Puts up nice stats because he consistently gets 630+ at bats ever year except last season. As a career .302 hitter, he is a good asset for team batting average.
10) Gordon Beckham – will provide extra flexibility the second or fourth week in the season with his move to second base this year, depending on you fantasy baseball league rules. Spent a total of 233 at bats in the minor leagues before coming up to the Show. Average should trend up as he adjusts to major league pitching.
11) Ian Stewart – legit power but still struggles to make contact. Career minor league batting average of .293 but has come no where close to that in the majors. Upped his strikeout rate to a Mark Reynolds-esque 40% after the All-Star break. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting a meager .178 last season. Recent addition of Melvin More means there could be a platoon in the works.
12) Adrian Beltre – multiple injuries ruined his 2009 season and sapped him of his power. I would use his 2005 numbers as the baseline with a few more steals sprinkled in.
13) Alex Gordon – still waiting for him to live up to the expectations based on his minor league performance but so far it has not happened. Even though he was limited by injuries last season, it was nice to see that he kept his 2008 gains in his walk rate. With hype now suppressed, he is finally being drafted where he should have been in years past.
14) Jorge Cantu – even though power has fluctuated, RBI total has remained consistent and should continue to do so in 2010. Improved performance against left-handed pitching has helped to boost his batting average.
15) Chipper Jones – age is finally catching him up with. Project him for 425 at bats and consider anything more as gravy.
16) Kevin Kouzmanoff – should enjoy being away from Petco Park where he hit under .230 each of the last two seasons. Will be interesting to see if he is able to adjust to the Oakland A’s patient approach at the plate after never walking more than 32 times in a season in the major leagues.
17) Casey McGehee – moved into the starting lineup in June and never looked back. Not the greatest player defensively, but neither is top prospect Mat Gamel so McGehee should be good for 500+ at bats this season. Offers the added flexibility of also qualifying at second base.
18) Casey Blake – not a sexy pick and he is old, but still gets the job done every year. Should be solid once again in 2010 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
19) Jhonny Peralta -what happened to the power? Turned into a ground ball machine last year and the home runs disappeared. Should bounce back a little bit but probably not all the way to 20 home runs again.
20) Chase Headley – hit more home runs at home, but batted almost 100 points less. Should be able to add a few more home runs as he continues to develop.
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Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be the top 20 outfielders.
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