Fantasy Baseball Tools

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.