One of the challenges when it comes to ranking players by position in fantasy baseball is trying to determine which player is going to have that breakout season and return a profit to your auction buy or draft pick. When reviewing the list of first basemen for the 2013 season, my pick to break out is Brandon Belt of the San Francisco Giants.
On the positive side, Belt had good plate discipline as evidenced by his walk rate last season and he also cut down on his strikeout rate. He also provided 12 stolen bases in 14 attempts and I love getting stolen bases from non traditional roster spots in fantasy baseball. On the flip side, he only hit seven home runs in 411 at bats which is not going to cut it in a mixed league format and he hit those home runs in two months throwing up goose eggs the other months of the season.
He still has some work to do on his swing; for instance check out his 26% line drive rate last season which is not going to be sustainable. He needs to be able to hit a few more fly balls to get some extra home runs to help his fantasy numbers. He also just needs to get more at bats as well with 598 in two major league seasons and 670 in the minor leagues, he is still learning on the job.
2013 Fantasy Projection for Brandon Belt
His current average draft position has him around the 16th round in a 15 team mixed format league which I think is about right given that I don’t think he is ready to reach 20 home runs quite yet this season. He should though be able to hit 15-17 home runs though, score and drive in 70 runs and steal 10+ bases which makes him Eric Hosmer lite.
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