This is the seventh article in the series of our 2013 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfielders ranked 21-40. You will find a lot of lot of speed in this group as well a couple of players that lost time due to injury last season in Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.
Crawford is the biggest risk to me in this grouping given he is coming back from Tommy John surgery and while he is expected to be ready for action, even if healthy he was a disappointment in his two seasons in Boston. Hopefully the pressure of performing up to the big contract and the scrutiny in Boston is behind him so if healthy he could return a decent sized profit if you are one of those owners that like to roll the dice on some of your selections.
Here is a look at the fantasy baseball outfielders ranked 21-40 for 2013.
21. Hunter Pence - amazingly consistent year-to-year but really struggled after being traded to the Giants and he did little in the playoffs as well.
22. Austin Jackson - walk rate increased, strike out rate and ground ball rate both decreased. Lots of positive signs of growth and he just turned 26 this season, be prepared to go above his ADP to get him.
23. Alex Rios - has been an up-and-down player stat wise since 2008 so if the trend continues, this would be a down season for him. 2012 was a good year for him, but I would not pay for a repeat.
24. Nick Markakis - numbers have gradually declined since 2008 though to be fair he was on a better pace last season before getting hurt, except for his one stolen base. His .290+ batting average carries a decent amount of his value.
25. Carl Crawford - looked better in his second year in Boston before season ended with Tommy John surgery. Expected to be ready for spring training with the Dodgers and hopefully the pressure of the contract and limelight of Boston is now behind him. Ranking is based on 500 at bats which may be too high depending on news in spring training.
26. Michael Bourn - has 90+ runs scored three of the last four seasons and has 40+ steals every season as a full-time player. Strikeout rate rose for the second straight season which gives a little more risk to his average.
27. Desmond Jennings - I would take his second half of 2012 over the full course of the season, 53-8-24-16 (r-hr-RBI-sb) though I expect him to run a little bit more in 2013.
28. Nelson Cruz - first time he reached 500 at bats in a season since….well, it was his first time actually. Injury tag he wears knocks a couple of dollars off of his value. I am taking the over on his 24 home runs for 2013.
29. Shane Victorino - dollars earned in value fell for the 4th consecutive year. If Boston puts any type of breaks on his running game, it will take a big chunk out of his value.
30. Angel Pagan - hit only one home run at AT&T Park which makes double-digit home runs look bleak. Still should be good for 85+ runs and 30+ steals which is what you are drafting him for.
31. Josh Willingham - project him at his 2011 season with a little better average rather than 2012 where he had an elevated home run per fly ball rate.
32. Michael Morse - battled injuries and still hit 18 home runs in 400 at bats. Move to Seattle should keep him closer to 25 home runs instead of 30.
33. Andre Ethier - home run rate bounced back after 2011 season, but for the second year in a row, too many ground balls prevents him from reaching 25+ home runs and continued inability to hit left-handed pitching keeps average under .300.
34. Michael Cuddyer - injury that cut his season short hid what a good season he was having, this despite having similar type numbers at Coors Field as he did on the road. Also qualifies at first base.
35. Carlos Beltran - had his best year since 2008. Turns 36 in April and I would not want to pay for a repeat given his injury history.
36. Norichika Aoki - lots to like here; draws walks, makes good contact and had good success on stolen base attempts. Power output is limited though with ground ball rate at 55%.
37. Alejandro de Aza - only one home run against a left-handed pitcher and only two long balls at home. A slight bit of improvement and he reaches 12-15 home runs in 2013. Runs scored and stolen bases give him a good amount of value.
38. Carlos Gomez - breakout season, but I am still not a true believer. Last time he reached 500 at bats was 2008 and Brewers could be out of the race by July if their young arms don’t pan out. I would project him somewhere between his 2008 and 2012 seasons.
39. Lorenzo Cain - some injury history and he is not a young prospect anymore, but the skills are there for a 15 home run 20+ steal season.
40. Jayson Werth - all numbers heading in the wrong direction as he turns 34 in May, but if healthy, can still post a 20-20 season.