Tony Mancini has been playing fantasy baseball for 17 years. He has won American League only leagues at CBS Sportsline and in his 12 team private leagues. He also holds dynasty league titles in his 24 team private league. He has previously written for Rotomojo.com as an American League correspondent.

Tony will be handling the waiver wire articles as well as doing some other additional work for the site going forward.

While he has four pitches he can throw for strikes, he still needs to do a better job of putting hitters away. Yes, I say this despite the fact he struck out seven hitters in five inning. He also recorded zero ground ball outs and six fly ball outs. He was able to record two outs via pick-off moves. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Thursday…

Hitters:

Vernon Wells hit his 4th home of the season, giving him seven RBI on the young season.

Chris Davis sat against the lefty starter Ricky Romero in place of Ryan Garko. If you are a Davis owner, you have to hope this is not going to be a permanent platoon situation.

Miguel Cabrera went 4-for-5 with four RBI and drilled his second home of the year.

Chipper Jones will miss the next 2-3 days with a strained oblique with Omar Infante expected to fill in for him.

Pitchers:

Brad Penny was good, 7 innings with one run and four strikeouts (ah, the magic of Dave Duncan) while Bronson Arroyo was just a little better in 8 innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts, though neither factored in the decision.

Similar results in Texas as Ricky Romero (7 innings, one run four k’s) squared off with C.J. Wilson,7 scoreless innings and nine strikeouts. I had a chance to catch part of the game and Wilson looked legit as a starter. He had some natural tail to his fastball as a lefty so it looked like a screwball at times. The announcers mentioned Wilson’s goal is 12 pitchers per inning and he was pretty close to that with 98 through seven innings of work. By the end of the season, it is not unrealistic to think that Wilson may be the most valuable Texas starter from a fantasy standpoint.

Brett Anderson tossed six shutout innings with four strikeouts to notch his first win of the year.

Randy Wells used 13 ground ball outs in six scoreless innings against the Atlanta Braves to earn a win. Wells walked two and struck out one in the game.

Jeff Niemann of the Tampa Bay Rays lasted only four hitters before leaving the game after being hit with a line drive from Miguel Tejada in his pitching shoulder.

Closers:

Frank Francisco blew Wilson’s win, allowing four hits and three runs in the ninth inning.

Leo Nunez rebounded from his poor outing the previous night to work a scoreless ninth inning to pick up his first save.

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2010 Houston Astros Projected Batting Order:

1.  CF Michael Bourn (ADP 103)
2.  2B Kaz Matsui  (ADP 351)
3.  1B Lance Berkman (ADP 63)
4.  LF Carlos Lee (ADP 65)
5.  RF Hunter Pence (ADP 83)
6.  3B Pedro Feliz (ADP ND)
7.  SS Tommy Manzella (ADP ND)
8.  C Jason Castro / J.R. Towles (ADP ND / ND)

2010 Houston Astros Projected Rotation & Bullpen:

1.  Roy Oswalt (ADP 156)
2.  Wandy Rodriguez (ADP 111)
3.  Brett Myers (ADP 328)
4.  Bud Norris (ADP 394)
5.  Brian Moehler / Felipe Paulino (ADP ND / ND)

Closer – Matt Lindstrom (ADP 245)
Handcuff – Brandon Lyon (ADP 313)

2010 Houston Astros prospects with potential impact this year:

1.  Jason Castro – C
2.  Sammy Gervacio – RP

One of the key take aways from spring training is seeing where players are going to fall in each team’s line up. Moving up or down in the line up from the previous season is going to have a direct impact on a players stats.

Take for instance Erick Aybar of the Los Angeles Angels. With the loss of Chone Figgins, Aybar now has the chance to hit lead off for the entire season. What is the direct impact to him from a stat perspective?

If we look at Figgins numbers from last year, he had 716 plate appearances which includes walks and hits. Averaging that out per 158 games gives him 4.53 plate appearances per game. (I realize this number could be off by .1 or so for games he pinch hit or was a defensive replacement, left a game injured, etc.) but at a top level, 4.53 is the number.

Aybar had 534 plate appearances in 137 games which was good for 3.90 per game. So if we slot Aybar into a lead off spot for the entire season and he gets roughly the same number of plate appearances as  Figgins did last year, he would see an additional .63 plate appearances per game. Factoring that out over 150 games as a baseline gives Aybar an extra 95 plate appearances for this season; or in simpler terms almost an extra month worth of stats.

The same type of numbers apply for Jason Bartlett who looks destined to hit number one for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010. Hitting first last season, Bartlett averaged 4.39 plate appearances. At the other spots in the lineup, he averaged only 3.64 plate appearances.  Factoring that out over 150 games as a baseline and it gives him an additional 113 plate appearances over the course of the year.

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To me, a sleeper is someone that does not have a lot of value heading into the season, or is in the minor leagues and will be up in the major leagues soon, or somebody that in an AL or NL only format is going to be able to help your team.

With that in mind, as your fantasy baseball draft or auction winds down, here are some names to keep in mind as the best 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers by position.

C – Jason Castro (Astros) – only has Humberto Quintero in front of him and the Astros need all of the offense they can get. Reached Double-A last season and it would be quite jump for him to reach the major leagues. However, holds a .295 career minor league batting average with good plate discipline (77 walks to 108 strikeouts). Struggled in the Arizona Fall League hitting .143 in 42 at bats.

1B – Logan Morrison (Marlins) – like Castro, Morrison played in Double-A last year. Suffered a fracture in his right wrist in 2009 which limited his at bats to 278. Has great plate discipline as he walked 17 more times than he struck out. Power still needs to develop, but with the budget conscious Marlins, he has a chance to open the year at first base. Could put up similar stats to James Loney of 2009.

2B – Chris Getz (Royals) - was traded to Kansas City along with Josh Fields for Mark Teahen in the off season. Royals general manager Dayton Moore has already gone on record saying there could eventually be a trade with the depth they have in the infield which would open a starting role for Getz if that happened. Had 25 stolen bases in 375 at bats in 2009 so he is a good end game option in AL only leagues.

SS – Starlin Castro (Cubs) – this might be a little bit of a stretch but he has been drawing rave reviews in the minor leagues and handled himself well in the Arizona Fall League. With a weak link at second base, there is a slim chance that Castro could open the year at shortstop with Ryan Theriot moving to second base. Has a career .302 batting average with 34 steals in 665 at bats. Received a lot of playing time in the AFL and hit .376 with nine steals in 101 at bats.

3B – Chad Tracy (Cubs) – just another Aramis Ramirez shoulder injury away from getting 500+ at bats. Can also play first base so he should be able to get 250-300 at bats with the Cubs and has a little pop in his bat. Nice end game pick in NL only leagues.

OF- Jim Edmonds (Brewers) – an under the radar signing by the Milwaukee Brewers. Out of baseball last season and will be 40 in June, however he has a few things going for him. One, Carlos Gomez is in front of him and there is no guarantee he hits any better than he did with the Minnesota Twins. Two, if they fall into a platoon, Edmonds as the left-handed batter will get the majority of at bats. Slugged 19 home runs in 250 at bats with the Cubs in 2008.

SP- Felipe Paulino (Astros) - has the chance to grab the 5th starter spot from Brian Moehler. Has a nice strikeout rate but has been too inconsistent in the major leagues. Had a string of four solid starts in September in which he allowed 9 runs in 23 innings with 27 strikeouts, but then was bombed for eight runs in his last start of the month. Is an option in NL only leagues and  worth stashing on reserve for his strikeout upside.

SP – Hector Rondon (Indians) - the Indians rotation is a mess so it’s not like he has a bunch of stud pitchers to pass on the depth chart. Split time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Has shown good control in the minor leagues with 1.9 walks per nine innings and eight strikeouts per nine. Even if he starts the year in Triple-A for more seasoning, he should not be down there too long. Turns 22 later this week.

RP – Kris Medlen (Braves) – made it to the major leagues before Tommy Hanson did last season. Once he arrived, he struggled as a starter and was then moved to the bullpen. He posted some nice numbers after the All-Star break with a 2.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning. Only a string of bad starts away by Kenshin Kawakami from moving into the rotation.

With two weeks now in the books in major league baseball, lets review some of the bullpen situations from a fantasy baseball perspective.

Washington Nationals:

Current closer Joel Hanrahan could be out of a job after blowing consecutive saves against the Florida Marlins on Friday and Saturday. Saul Rivera got the chance to close on Sunday and he blew that as well. Rivera was sent to Triple-A after the game. Garret Mock has been recalled from Triple-A and could see a save opportunity, although he had a 17.18 ERA in the minors so far this year. Joe Beimel could also see save chances as he has been the one decent reliever so far this year in the Nationals bullpen. A dark horse candidate is Jason Bergmann who was also recalled from Triple-A on Sunday.

Colorado Rockies:

Two days after being named closer by manager Clint Hurdle, Manny Corpas pitching in the 7th inning in the blowout loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday allowed two runs in one inning, bumping his ERA up to 6.75. Recently replaced closer Huston Street has not been any better, currently sports a 9.64 ERA. In a perfect world, Street would have been the closer until July and then traded with Corpas taking over.  Taylor Buchholz might have been an option but is still on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained right elbow.  Jason Grilli could be next in line in Corpas fails to deliver when presented with a save opportunity.

Chicago Cubs:

Carlos Marmol – 1.35 ERA, got the save on Friday night and was rewarded by being brought into the game in the 7th inning on Saturday.

Kevin Gregg – 6.00 ERA, has not had a save since opening day, but is still the closer according to manager Lou Piniella.

Talent eventually will win out over stubbornness I have to believe in this case, but until Gregg blows a save or two, it looks like he is still the man.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Without doubt, the main closer is now Ryan Franklin. Manager Tony La Russa is trying to work Jason Motte into situations to be successful to get his confidence built back up. Recently recalled Chris Perez from Triple-A gives them another option in the bullpen, but for now, Franklin should see the majority of save opportunities.

Milwaukee Brewers:

Carlos Villanueva has not been the answer with a 9.00 ERA. Injured closer Trevor Hoffman is scheduled to pitch Tuesday night in Triple-A and again on Friday and if all goes well, he will be recalled the following week. Todd Coffey and Villanueva will battle for the eight inning role once Hoffman returns.

Baltimore Orioles:

George Sherrill remains the closer, but he has to keep on eye on Chris Ray. Sherrill has been getting saves, but his ERA and whip ratio make him less than an ideal closer to own. Ray has strung together three good outings in a row after two initial poor performances. Ray has struck out seven in his last 3 1/3 innings. Ray has not pitched on back-to-back days yet this season so when he does eventually take back the closer role, Sherrill will still see save chances.

Seattle Mariners:

Brandon Morrow has been perfect in his four appearances since blowing his first save. If you own Morrow, handcuff David Aardsma to him. If you don’t own Morrow, Aardsma could get you 5-10 saves the remainder of the season.

Following up on my previous post, let’s examine the pitchers that are returning from injury in 2008 that will have an impact on this year’s fantasy baseball season.

Yovani Gallardo: Gallardo came back at the tail end of 2008 after undergoing surgery on both of his knees. His 24 innings pitched means he might be limited to 175 innings this season in attempts to prevent injury. Helping his cause is that he declined to pitch for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic which might have further limited his innings for the Milwaukee Brewers. Gallardo currently has an ADP of 118, ranking him ahead of Rich Harden, Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano. If you want to draft him, don’t count on him sliding.

Erik Bedard: Bedard underwent shoulder surgery in September last year. He has had two mound sessions since February 15th and has reported no problems so far. It is interesting to note that before the injury, his k/9 ratio was at 8.0, which was in line with his 2006 season of 7.9. That is number you should be hoping for if you draft him and he is healthy. His 2007 ratio of 10.9 k/9 seems like an outlier. Bedard currently has an ADP of 188 which puts him in the company of Scott Baker, Ted Lilly and Clayton Kershaw.

John Maine: Maine underwent surgery last September on his right shoulder. He started an intrasquad game yesterday, pitching two innings, allowing one hit with two strikeouts and zero earned runs.  In an effort to reduce his pitch counts this season, New York Mets pitch coach Dan Warthen is asking Maine to starting using his curveball again. Maine currently has ADP of 241 which puts him in the neighborhood of Gil Meche, Jered Weaver and Wandy Rodriguez.

Chien-Ming Wang: Wang tore the tendon in his right foot last June and missed the remainder of the season. Wang had his mound session back on February 3rd and looks to be in good health as he prepares for the start of the season. His current ADP is 222 which puts him slight ahead of John Maine. With Wang you know are going to get a decent amount of wins and few strikeouts. He managed to bump his k/9 ratio to 5.1 before his injury, but over 200 innings, that only comes out to 113 strikeouts.

Justin Duchscherer: Coming off of hip surgery for a second year in a row, Duchscherer should be fine to start the season. Last year his career high 141 innings were the most since he threw 96 innings in 2004. He has the stuff to post decent numbers, the problem is there is no guarantee he makes it through the entire season, much less the all-star break.

Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman was sidelined last June with a blood clot in his arm. He has thrown four times already since arriving in camp and has experienced no problems so far. After having not thrown for eight months, there is a chance Bonderman will be left behind for extended spring training to build up his arm strength. In 2007, the breakout year that many expcted for Bonderman never materialized as he compiled a 5.01 e.r.a. He had a very good k/9 ratio at 7.5 so if he starts the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation, he is someone worth taking a flyer on, particulary in AL only leagues.

Fausto Carmona: Carmona missed two months last season with a strained hip, only to return late in the year and get pounded on. Before his injury, Carmona sported a 3.10 e.ra. with a 1.59 whip ratio, thanks to an ugly 38-23 walk to strikeout ratio. The Indians had Carmona working to correct a flaw in his delivery while pitching in the Dominican Winter League so the expectation is that he will turn that ratio around in 2009.

One of the strategies I employ when it comes to fantasy baseball drafts is to look for players coming off of an injury in the middle to late rounds. The reason is twofold; the value of the player has been somewhat depressed in terms of draft position compared to the value of potential return in stats for a full season of health and two, there is a foundation for statistical success that is present compared to taking a flier on a rookie with an unknown performance history that may or may not have still have a starting job once the month of April is over. With that in mind, let’s review some of the key names coming back from injury in 2009.

Travis Hafner: Had shoulder surgery on October 14, 2008. I am a little concerned that it took that long last season for the surgery to occur and it did not happen in season, which means he could start out spring training a little behind schedule. His 42 home runs in 2006 look like an outlier so even if he was 100% his home run range seems to be in the 22-27 range with possible upside to 30. His average draft position is currently running 239 at Mock Draft Central which puts him in the 17th round in a 14 team mixed league draft.

Victor Martinez: Martinez had elbow surgery in June of last season to remove bone chips. He showed a little power upon his return, hitting two home runs in 59 at bats in September after going homer less in his first 207 plate appearances of the season. The one concern with drafting Martinez is the potential for him to lose 75-100 at bats this season to Kelly Shoppach at catcher.

Todd Helton: Helton who had been bother by back issues since 2002 finally underwent back surgery on September 30th of last year. He is still currently rehabbing his back with the hopes of being ready for opening day. Now at age 35, he can still provide some average help, but his power potential is most likely 20 home runs maximum and he has not driven in 100 runs since 2003.

Chase Utley: Utley underwent hip surgery at the of November last season and the original prognosis was that he would miss 4 to 6 months. Utley , who is pushing to be ready by Opening Day has felt no pain so far this year. Considering that he played in pain last season and still posted numbers of .292 avg 33 home runs 104 rbi’s and 14 steals. Assuming he has no setbacks in spring training, he could be a great value pick for someone picking at the end of the first round / early second round if he slides in your draft.

Troy Tulowitzki: It was a tough season last year for Tulowitzki, suffering a torn quadriceps tendon at the end of April and mssing time in June after cutting his hand when he slammed a bat in frustration. He managed to bounce back when he returned, hitting .292 with 5 home runs and 25 rbi’s in his last 52 games of the year with a 21 to 25 walk to strikeout ratio. Current ADP has Tulowitzki grouped together with Jhonny Peralta of Cleveland and J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers. I like Tulowitzki a little more than both of those two with the batting average upside he can provide.

Ryan Zimmerman: Here is what I wrote about Zimmerman in one of my previous posts, “Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals looks to be going a little high in drafts with an ADP of 99. Coming off of wrist surgery in 2007 he suffered a torn labrum in 2008 and his power suffered as a result. His walk rate decreased and his stolen base totals went from 11 two years ago to only 1 last season. He can still have a productive season but I think there are better, safer choices that will be available in a one year league draft.” The recent signing of Adam Dunn might give Zimmerman a little more protection in the lineup, watch to see his power numbers in spring to see if his strength has returned all the way.

Mike Lowell: Lowell underwent hip surgery at the end of October and is working towards being ready for opening day. The Boston Red Sox have an alternate in place with Kevin Youkilis having the ability to switch over from first base so there is no need to rush Lowell’s recovery. It will be interesting to see if he comes back with a chip on his shoulder after the Red Sox missed out on signing Mark Teixeira which would have led to Lowell being traded. His current ADP slots him behind Melvin Mora, Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton, and Mark Reynolds.

Eric Byrnes: Byrnes was limited to only 206 at bats last season after tearing his left hamstring. Arizona manager Bob Melvin said in December his current lineup plans have Eric Byrnes on the bench. Byrnes has been mentioned several times in trade rumors in the off  season. Expect those rumors to heat up in spring training if he can show his hamstrings are okay and he can steal bases. Currently the plan is for Byrnes to sit out the first few spring training games as a precaution.