Archive for the ‘Draft Leagues’ Category

2011 Fantasy Baseball – 5 Pitchers to Target Late in the Draft

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2011

It seems that in 2011 pitching is deeper than ever in fantasy baseball leagues. The number of pitchers to pick from in rounds 20 or later in 15 team mixed league drafts offer a lot more decent options in years past to allow to grab a pitcher that can still help your team and even offer a little bit of upside as well. Based on current average draft positions from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC, here is a look at five pitchers to target late in your draft.

Jeff Niemann – his final numbers were okay at the end of the year, but they were driven higher by shoulder issues he had in the second half of the season. Before the All-Star break, he was stellar with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP to go with 84 strikeouts in 117 innings. He showed improvement in his second season in the major leagues and should take another step forward this year as well.

Tim Stauffer – he pitches in the National League and pitches his home games in PETCO Park so at the worst he becomes a guy you can rotate in at the end of the rotation for his home starts. I would use 2009 as his baseline for stat projections rather than what he did in 2010 when he had a little bit of luck and pitched a little better than what his skill set suggests.

Michael Pineda – slowly starting to move up draft boards now that it looks like he has the inside track to land the 5th starter spot in Seattle. Has a 3.27 ERA through 11 innings this spring with four walks and eight strikeouts. Struck out almost a batter per inning in his minor league career with 396 punchouts in 404 innings. Just turned 22 in January so expect a few bumps in the road and he could face an innings limit at some point the second half of the season, but the upside is you get a pitcher with strikeout upside late in the draft which is hard to find and he pitches in Safeco Field which should help as well.

Phil Coke / Kyle McClellan – as we saw with C.J. Wilson last year in Texas, it is worth keeping an eye on relievers transitioning into a starter role, especially guys that can be grabbed late in drafts. Coke has been off to a good start in spring training with a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 innings with four walks and 12 strikeouts. McClellan has been outstanding so far in his bid to replace Adam Wainwright in the rotation with a .75 ERA and nine strikeouts in 12 innings.

Cory Luebke – recently ranked 6th in the San Diego Padres organization by Baseball America, Luebke fared well in three starts at the end of the year. He has a 4.25 ERA this spring through 12 2/3 innings with three walks allowed. For his career in the minor leagues, he has posted a 3.49 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. Much like with Stauffer above, the combination of pitching in the NL and in PETCO should be a recipe for success in 2011.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball – Strategy for End of the Draft

Posted by Tony Mancini on March 16th, 2011

Does this sound familiar? Its late in your fantasy baseball draft, you’ve been there over 3 hours, you’re tired, hungry ready for it to end, but you still have to fill out your bench.

There are two general rules I use at the end of AL only and NL only drafts/auctions.
1.  Draft 4th or 5th starters on good teams instead of the ace of a bad team
2.  Find part time players that will not hurt the bottom line.

Rule 1:
Does anyone really want a pitcher from the Pittsburgh Pirates or the Kansas City Royals?  Do you really want Josh Tomlin or Mitch Talbot from the Cleveland Indians?  Do you really want Paul Maholm, Russ Olendorf, Jeff Francis or Bruce Chen on your team?  I know some of you are going to say you would take Luke Hochevar and I would say draft him for keeper leagues only, otherwise I would avoid him. Some obvious exceptions to this rule would be King Felix Hernandez of Seattle, Fausto Carmona of Cleveland and Josh Johnson of the Marlins.

I follow this rule for the simple reason that I will likely get more wins out of the fourth and fifth starters on a good team than the ace of a bad one. I would rather draft in the American League:
Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova of the Yankees
Gavin Floyd of the White Sox
Dallas Braden of the Athletics
Anyone on the Tampa Bay Rays

In the National League, I would rather draft:
Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers
Madison Bumgarner of the Giants
Tim Stauffer & Clayton Richard of the Padres
Joe Blanton of the Phillies

Rule 2:
In the twentieth round of a draft, you are not going to find an everyday player.  What I look for are one or two category guys who aren’t going to hurt me in any other categories.  Look for part time players that can get you a handful of home run or stolen bases.  For pitchers, look for someone who is second in line for save opportunities.

National League hitters to take a look at:
Eric Hinske - not an everyday player but when he is in the line-up he produces.  As a part time player last year with the Braves, Hinske hit .255 with 11 home runs and 51 RBI in 131 games.
Ryan Spilborghs – currently projected to be the 4th OF for the Colorado Rockies, Spilborghs hit .279 with 10 home runs and 39 RBI in 134 games.
I like Matt Diaz as a 5th OF.  Again he is not going to play everyday, he had some injuries with the Atlanta Braves last year, but what I like is that the Pittsburgh Pirates signed him for two years.  He should get a fair amount of at bats platooning with Garrett Jones and Lyle Overbay while not hurting you in any categories.

Stolen Bases:
Roger Bernadina of the Nationals may be a familiar name however, he’s in line for part time duty with Mike Morse set in left field and Rick Ankiel and Nyjer Morgan battling with him for the center field job.  Bernadina  had 16 stolen bases last year in 134 games and could still get double digit steals in a part-time role.
Willie Harris of the Mets is going to grab a bench spot for his versatility and will likely play second base and the outfield and has a good history for double digit stolen bases.

Saves: (relief pitchers who could get a handful of saves):
Jonny Venters (ATL) -  Craig Kimbrel is currently listed atop the depth chart but has struggled in spring.
Clay Hensley (FLA) -  Leo Nunez has struggled at times.
Takashi Saito (MIL) -  John Axford has struggled this spring with a 13.50 ERA and 12 runners allowed in 3 1/3 innings.
Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD) – Received the majority of the save opportunities when Jonathan Broxton struggled in 2010.

American League hitters to consider:
Felix Pie (BAL)- currently the 4th outfielder, Pie hit .274 with 31 RBI and 39 run scored in 82 games.
Brennan Boesch & Don Kelly (DET) – both are a good source of cheap power.

Stolen Bases:
Omar Vizquel (CHW) – had 11 stolen bases while hitting .276 in 2010.
Gregor Blanco (KC) – he is out of options to be sent to the minors and had 11 stolen bases leading off for the Royals and hit .283
Chris Getz (KC) – stole 15 bases in 72 games as a utility infielder last season.

Saves:
This is much more chaotic in the American League.  Many teams have injuries or have not come to a decision on their closer yet.

Scott Downs and Kevin Jepsen (LAA) -  Fernando Rodney is the closer for now, but he struggles every year.
Matt Thorton and Chris Sale (CHW) -  Thornton is currently atop the depth chart, but Sale closed game at the end of last season.
Koji Uehara and Kevin Gregg (BAL) -  Uehara has been hurt this spring, but Baltimore would prefer he be their primary closer.

Hopefully this provides you with a different outlook for the end of you AL or NL only drafts. Please let me know if you tried this strategy and how it worked out for you.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Keeper Leagues Draft Format

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 18th, 2011

With fantasy baseball drafts only a month or two away, it is time to start preparing for your fantasy baseball keeper league draft. There are several more challenges that go into getting prepared for a keeper league than there is in doing an annual draft that starts new each season.

First you need to determine which players you are going to protect. There are several ways that you can go about determining who you want to keep. One is by projecting all of the keepers for the other teams in the league. This will give you an idea of what positions will have some decent players to draft from so you can plan your keepers accordingly.

If you play in an AL or NL only format, not only do you have to look at the players that may be cut from other teams, you also have to be aware of the new players that have come over from other leagues. This will have an impact on your keepers plus the position of where you are drafting.

For example, in an NL only league, say you get 10 keepers and plan on keeping five pitchers. Regardless of who other teams cut, you could argue that the first four picks of the draft will be Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Javier Vazquez in some order. Now, with five pitchers on your team as keepers, you may not want to take a pitcher there but it is the best value on the board. If you know this ahead of time, you can trade one of your possible keeper pitchers for a hitter so your team ends up more balanced.

Once you have projected all of the keepers in the league as well as your team, then you want to conduct a mock draft. You can do this simply on your own and since you most likely will know where you are drafting from. By doing this for the first five to six rounds, you will quickly be able to see what positions will have players available to pick from as well as which positions may be weak. After running through the mock draft, you may soon realize that you need to keep player A over player B because you are not going to be able to fill that position with anyone of value in the draft.

Just like in a one year draft, you will want to be tracking your goals throughout the draft to make sure you are hitting targets in pitching and hitting categories to make sure you are not falling short of any of your goals. The idea is to target the top three in each category with the closer you can get to the top of each one the better off you will be.

If for some reason your team is at a big disadvantage heading into the season and you don’t feel like you have the keepers to compete this year, then right from the start you need to be focused on next year. That means thinking of players that are coming off of injury and will be ready 2012 such as Kris Medlen or Stephen Strasburg or going for the next wave of rookies that are coming such as Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer.

In NL or AL only leagues because the talent pool is so shallow, rookies tend to go early in the first few rounds even for teams that are trying to win as the value of that player even playing half of the season is higher than anyone on the draft board plus you will get to keep that player for “x” number of years afterwards.

Another thing to be aware of in AL or NL only leagues is the contract situation of players. Because you will lose the rights to that player in most leagues if he is traded or signs as a free agent in the other league in the offseason, it is important to plan for that in advance. Losing a top player in an only league can be a setback where the talent pool is not as deep as it is in mixed formats.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Snake Drafts

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 17th, 2011

For those of you that have not had much success playing fantasy baseball or are just getting started playing fantasy baseball for the first time, there is different strategy that goes into playing snake drafts (where picks go 1-15 and then back 15-1) or in an auction format.

One of the biggest problems that people seem to have in snake drafts is they are not always prepared to pick when they are on the clock. If you are drafting online or playing in a high stakes fantasy baseball event, you are going to have a set time to make your pick. If you are flipping through a magazine checking stats or trying to look through multiple sheets of paper or tabs on your computer, you can end up making a rushed pick before the clock runs out that you are not happy with.

There are several ways to help avoid this problem. The first is by doing several mock drafts. Unless you have a good idea long before the draft where you are going to be picking, it is a good idea to do at least for to five drafts so you can draft from several different positions so you have an idea of what players or positions may or may not be available when it is your time to pick.

If you are playing in a league with 15 teams, you should try one draft where you are pick 1 or 15 so you get used to picking twice in a row and you can feel what it is like to go so long between picks, another where you are around pick 4-6, another one where you are pick 9-10 and another around 13-15. This will give you a good feel of coming up with a draft plan so you are prepared on draft day. If you cannot find a place to mock drafts at, then you can simply do a mock draft all by yourself. That way you are making every pick in the draft and it gives you a good idea ahead of time if two players are available which one you prefer. So if you are sitting toward the end of the first round and both Carl Crawford and David Wright are there, which one do you take?

Another way to get better prepared is to take advantage of the ADP information that is out there, especially if the format is similar to that of the league that you play in. While the picks won’t line up exactly, it will give you a general idea of where players are going, what rounds might you see a position run as well where some sleepers you like may be getting drafted.

With the glut of information that is out there on fantasy baseball, it has made fantasy baseball sleepers pretty much extinct and has improved the level of owner that you are competing against. If you are hoping for guys to slide back to you in rounds, you are likely to find two or three guys snapped up right in front of you. If there is someone that you want and it helps your team, you may need to grab them a round early depending what draft position you are picking from.

If there are several players you are targeting for late in the draft that you want to get and think could help your team, this will also help you in the early rounds with your drafting. For example, from your ADP you see Brad Hawpe is going in the 19th round and he was going in rounds 19-20 in your mock drafts, if that is someone your are interested in, you can save a spot in your outfield for him and take him in round 18.

When you head into the draft, you should have some type of general game plan but you need to be prepared to deviate at a moments notice. If you are picking 1st and are planning on taking a closer with the last pick of round six but then see seven closers go in front of you, you need to know ahead of time if this happens if you are going to follow the heard or simply go in another direction and maybe start a position run of your own by taking two middle infielders.

Another way to help you improve in snake drafts is by getting a better understanding of the player pool. In many cases, a player has a so called breakout year, simply because they get more at bats and not because all of a sudden they got new skills. If you understand the roster makeups of teams and can translate that to what it means for playing time, it means you could grab a couple of players late that end up having value several rounds higher than where they were picked.

You also want to decide what type of drafter you are. Are you the guy that drafts all rookies and second year players even if it is not a keeper league? Do you want to load up on pitchers early and then grab hitters late? Do you want to punt saves? Again, it helps to think these things out before the draft so nothing surprises you when you are on the clock. Really it’s no different that studying for a test back when you were in school. The more prepared and practice you do, the better you are going to perform in most cases barring injuries to your players.

You also will want to track the stats of the team you are drafting to make sure you are hitting your goals. If you have played in the league before, you should have a good idea of what the average 1 -3 positions are in each category so you have something to target for your team. This always keeps you are track throughout the draft so you don’t come out of it short 50 stolen bases or 30 home runs.

If you come out of the draft and are not happy with your team or feel that you blew several picks, keep in mind that the draft is just one part of the process. There is also trading that can be done as well as waiver wire pickups. Once the year is over, you should sit down and take a realistic look at your team drafts and see what areas you had problems with and where you might have went wrong so you fix the mistakes then for the next season.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Lessons Learned

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 9th, 2010

Now that the 2010 fantasy baseball season has ended it is time to take a look back at your teams and review what went right or wrong during the season. Much like an annual review you or your boss does at work it is important to see where improvements can be made for 2011, regardless of where you finished in 2010. Even if you won every league and think you are the best player in the world, there are always areas to improve upon. If you are one of the fantasy baseball owners that tend to finish the season and just forget about what happened, then you are doing yourself a disservice going forward. It can be difficult if you have not finished in the cash spots for several years in a row to want to put the time in to review what wrong but that is one of the ways you are going to get better moving forward. With that said, here are some of my key takeaways from 2010.

1. Determine what type of fantasy baseball league you are best suited for – this question is answered in several different ways. Do you perform better in an auction format a snake draft or a head-to-head league? Not all fantasy baseball leagues are created equal. Just because you have success in one format does not necessarily mean you will do well in everyone because each as its own unique strategy. If you find yourself faring better in a certain type of format, stick to that and pick up an extra team or two instead of spreading yourself across multiple formats.

Many leagues will have different dates to select from for drafting. Most people tend to opt for leagues closer to the date when the regular season is because roles are more defined and there is less of a chance of a player going down with injury, a la Joe Nathan last year. On the flip side of that coin however is if you draft early, like the beginning of March, if you have a good handle on playing time and who may win a position battle, you can do very well. You will notice that many players average draft position jumps several rounds as it gets closer to the season. Some people are not prepared to make adjustments to the their draft strategy if they are picking close to the start of the year. Know what works for you and go with that.

2. Go with three closers in deeper mixed leagues – in my three 15 team mixed draft no trade leagues I went with two closers in all of them. In two of them I found a closer for relatively cheap on waivers and in the third one I did not. There are several reasons why I think going with three closers is the way to go. With the amount of money that owners waste trying to chase save in free agency, you could better use that money for hitters or starters. Closers tend to go for a premium on waivers which can blow anywhere from 25 to 50% of your budget. You also have to contend with an owner or two each league who may try for the all reliever strategy which shrinks the closer pool to draft from. If you are playing in a fantasy baseball league that has an overall winner, that is going to make it harder to compete for the overall prize.

Third, more people are tending to pick backup closers in draft or auctions now. With the rage of the handcuff pick in fantasy football, that is carried over to fantasy baseball as well so you will see more relief pitchers going in reserve rounds in drafts. Also just the fact that closers are bound to lose their job during the season due to injury or performance so even starting with three closers may mean that at some point you are down to only one or two closers and may need saves anyway. But if you had been playing with three for most of the year, you are likely to have had a cushion built up that may soften the blow of losing one. In my NL only 11 team league, I had Jonathan Broxton, Trevor Hoffman and Matt Lindstrom as my closers to start the year. All of a sudden 2/3 of the way through the season I then had a team with no closers on it.

3. Picking the right free agent strategy – there are going to be different strategies for free agency if you are using FAAB to pick up players. If you draft on say March 1, rosters are usually locked until the first week of the season when free agency opens. That means the player pool is going to be much larger to pick from as compared to leagues that drafted the week before the season started. If you are a person who tends to hold their money until later in the season, it could mean that you are going to miss out on some good bargains. I am of the belief of spending money early rather than later in mixed leagues. I would rather get 25 weeks worth of stats for my money rather than 10 or 15 weeks.

With more owners grabbing minor leagues on their bench, there is less of a chance that hot rookie is going to get called up to bid on. If that player is, one owner who has not spend hardly anything is going to end up likely getting him which means you will be shut out of the bidding and in half of the cases, the player is not going to have that big of an impact on your fantasy baseball lineup.

In one of my 15 team mixed leagues that drafted on 3/13, here is a look at some of the players that were available for pickup in week 1. Fausto Carmona, Alberto Callaspo, Jaime Garcia, Colby Lewis, Sean Rodriguez and Jose Bautista. If you spent money early, you good have gotten three quality starting pitchers that could have solidified your rotation for the entire year.

4. There is value in consistency – if someone offered you $1 million to make two predictions for stats next season to come true, what would you pick? Just off the top of my head, my prediction would be that Adam Dunn hits 40 home runs and that Dan Uggla hits 30. While it may differ by one or two on either side, I think there is something to be said for such consistency in projecting players when there can be such a wide variance of stats. These two players have had fluctuating batting averages in years past so some fantasy baseball owners may have tended to shy away, but I think if you look back at your roster and see some players that you picked that did not pan out, going the extra dollar or two or a round early on them I think is worth it knowing you are locking up certain stats. You can still draft a few players with projected upside or a rookie or two that you are hoping to breakout, but at the same time you have to have a solid base of consistent players. Yes, there is no upside so they may not be as sexy of a pick as tabbing that breakout layer, but there is also no real downside barring injury because you know what you are getting For example, looking back on the 2010 drafts, would you now take Pablo Sandoval in the third round or Adam Dunn in the fifth or sixth round?

5. Any strategy can win a league – although I think certain straegies do better in the long run and are more consistent, in a one year league, any type of strategy can win a league. Whether you load up on hitters early or pitchers early or try the all reliever strategy, anything is possible no matter how good your competition is.

Take a look at this team that won a 15 team mixed league by a comfortable margin. His first three picks were Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes and Ryan Zimmerman. He then proceeded to take pitchers with six of his seven next picks, Johan Santana, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, Billy Wagner and David Aardsma.

Now normally you would think his offense would not stand a chance with that many pitchers early, but whether he was psychic or just that smart, he hit on a ton of hitters late in the draft. He got Corey Hart (16), Chris Young (17), Aubrey Huff (18), Scott Podsednik (21) to help round out his offense. So any type of strategy can work, there is not just one way to win the league.

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NFBC Draft Analysis

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 30th, 2010

This past Saturday I competed in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) in Las Vegas in a 15-team mixed league draft. It was a Rotisserie league format with standard 5 x 5 categories. Due to the cost of the entry fees and the prizes that are paid out, all of the NFBC leagues are no trade leagues in order to avoid possible collusion.

Heading into the draft with the #1 pick, I was still debating on Albert Pujols vs. Hanley Ramirez and also how I was going to cope with waiting 28 picks between rounds because of the snake draft. Here is a look at the team with the rounds they were drafted in parenthesis.

Hitters:

C – Victor Martinez (2) – same as in my auction, one of the guys I was targeting, as I have written many times before, I don’t believe in punting the catcher position.

C – Russell Martin (11) – again, same comment applies from my auction, I wasn’t looking to get Martin, but I needed his 10 stolen bases.

1B – Albert Pujols (1) – despite the numerous fantasy baseball leagues I play in each year, I have not owned Pujols a full year since his rookie season. I was debating on Hanley Ramirez, but I took Pujols and hoped that Jose Reyes would make it back to me at the end of round two, but unfortunately he did not.

2B – Brandon Phillips (2) – in my mock drafts I was debating between him and Dustin Pedroia. Since Pedroia was off the board at my pick, it made the decision easier.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (10) – high average, should steal a few bases and should score a lot of runs hitting lead off.

3B – Chone Figgins (6) – Not sure I really wanted him, but with Juan Pierre my outfield target already off the board I figured I better grab the stolen bases while I could.

Cor – Paul Konerko (14) – I was very happy he slid back to me.

Mid – Jose Lopez (8) – was happy to get 20 home runs from a middle infielder

OF – Shin-Soo Choo (4) – one of my targets, love to get 20-20 outfielders.

OF – Franklin Gutierrez (12) – hoping that he gets up to 20-20 this season.

OF – Lastings Milledge (16) – same comment as on my auction team, not a huge fan of his, but needed 20 steals and he was the best fit. He is only 25 so there is still some upside there.

OF – Cody Ross (18) – mmm, not much to say.

OF – Will Venable (20) – for some reason I like him, not sure why, I think he has the chance to steal 20 bases with a little bit of power.

UT – Aaron Rowand (22) – really embarrassed to have to type that.

Overall, I am short on power unless Pujols hits 50 and Brandon Phillips hits 30. My outfield is in bad shape, but somehow the rest of my other categories I seem to have met my targets on, although my batting average might be a percentage or two lower than what I need.

Pitchers:

P – Tommy Hanson (5) – picking at #1, I knew that if I did not take a pitcher here, there was not going to be anyone in the top tier left at my next pick.

P – Chad Billingsley (7) – I like him and am willing to discount his second half of last season.

P – Randy Wolf  (15) – decent strikeouts, ERA and WHIP should be higher than in 2009, but still a guy I like in round 15.

P – Brian Matusz (17) – has been getting some hype this spring, but still pitches in the American League East which limits his upside slightly.

P – Ian Kennedy (19) – despite his injuries in the past, I still believe in his minor league numbers and the move to the National League should help, despite his new home ballpark.

P – Bronson Arroyo (21) – just have to keep reminding him, “no guitar, no guitar”.

P – Bud Norris (23) – still a pitch short of being a successful starting pitcher. I like him for his strikeouts, will have to spot start him.

RP – Jose Valverde (9) – I think he is in the second tier of closers after the top 3-4.

RP – Bobby Jenks (13) – crossing my fingers he holds it together for the full season.

I like my staff a lot more than the staff from my auction team. I think Hanson and Billingsley are two solid anchors and Kennedy and Matusz have some upside. I have some work to do on my ratios based on my projections unless Matusz, Kennedy and Norris are able to make some improvements.

Reserves:

Rd 1 – Jeremy Hellickson – I expect him up by the middle of the season although it is hard to see who he would replace based on the current Tampa Bay rotation.

Rd 2 – Jose Guillen – not sure if this is better or worse than Aaron Rowand

Rd 3 – Mike Adams – when / if Heath Bell gets traded, I think Adams takes over.

Rd 4 – C.J. Wilson – a flier

Rd 5 – Chris Carter (Oakland) – with Oakland short on power, I think he is up in July.

Rd 6 – Ramon Ortiz – late round gamble on him winning the 5th starter job with the Dodgers

Rd 7 – David Bush – Rick Peterson will work his magic with at least one Milwaukee Brewers pitcher, hopefully I picked the right one.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Leagues – Draft Position

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 1st, 2010

Now that we have been looking at fantasy baseball mock drafts, it is time to look at draft position and how that impacts your fantasy baseball team. For the purpose of this discussion, we will be using a 15 team mixed league format.

Usually there are several positions I want to grab in the early rounds of the draft based on the depth or lack of depth at a position. Some places in the draft order mean you will not have a shot at any of these positions. If you are not comfortable with having either a weak shortstop of second basemen or whatever position you value, than you might need to adjust your strategy or grab a player a round earlier than you wanted to because he will not make it back to your pick in the next round.

Some fantasy baseball leagues offer you the chance to list a preference for your draft order. If that is case, it pays to have made sure you have done several mock drafts from multiple positions before the real event. Every year I feel there is a stronger part of the draft order where an owner might have a slight advantage for drafting. Knowing where this spot is in your draft can make a huge difference in you winning or losing you fantasy baseball league.

Let’s take a look at some of the sections of the draft and assess the strengths and weaknesses of each group.

Picks 1-5: If you value a shortstop, unless you get Hanley Ramirez, you are most likely in trouble. From the previous fantasy baseball mock draft article we know it is likely that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are not going to make it back in the second round. Derek Jeter is there in the third round but it is probably a little early to take him based on other value on the board.

Also at risk picking in these slots are your team stolen base totals. I usually try to set a goal of getting 40% of my teams stolen bases from my first three picks of the draft. Unless you grab Matt Kemp in the top five, chances are you are getting 15-20 steals from your first round pick. On the way back in the second round unless Justin Upton or Grady Sizemore slide to you, the only real stolen base numbers come from second basemen like Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia or Brian Roberts. Chances are though that if you took Chase Utley in the first round, you are not going to grab another second basemen in round two so you have to look elsewhere for steals.

In the third round, stolen base options would be a second basemen if you did not grab one in round two, Jayson Werth or reaching for Ichiro Suzuki or Derek Jeter. So if your goal for stolen bases is 170, and we are aiming for 40%, then we want to try and get 68 steals from the first three picks. Picking in the top 5 spots assuming no Kemp and unless Upton or Sizemore slide, you are most likely only going to be at around 40 to 50 steals so you need to keep that in mind as you prepare for the draft.

Picks 6-10: This is not a bad spot to be in as after the top five, the opinions widely vary on the next group of players so sitting at 10, there is a good chance that you could get one of the top players on your draft board.

Same potential problems with missing out on a shortstop lie in this draft range. Also at issue is possibly second base assuming Utley does not slide. There is a very good chance that Phillips, Pedroia and Roberts are all gone by the time the third round pick comes. That leaves possible options of Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, or Ben Zobrist coming back in the fourth round.

Third base could be an issue as well as you miss out on A-Rod in the first round and on David Wright in the second round. Mark Reynolds might slide to this group, but if you take Ryan Howard in the first round, it would be hard to take Reynolds here because you would start in a huge hole from a batting average perspective. Ryan Zimmerman and Kevin Youkilis are gone by the end of round two / start of round three so you miss them in the third round which leaves possibly Pablo Sandoval or Aramis Ramirez in the third round or else take the risk of hoping Ramirez slides back to your spot in the fourth round.

If you like to take catchers early, this spot could work to your advantage as you would like have a shot at Joe Mauer in the first, Victor Martinez in the second and Brian McCann in the third.

Picks 11-15: If you are a fan of position scarcity, this spot of the draft will give you some great draft selections with David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Kinsler all in this range. It is also a good spot to grab stolen bases with the above listed players as well as Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury in the mix as well.

Downside to this spot is you miss out on a top tier first basemen most likely. Five first basemen are off the board if the current average draft position (ADP) numbers hold up, as well as missing out on Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau in the second round on the way back. Possible options in the third or fourth round would be Kendry Morales, Lance Berkman or Pablo Sandoval if he slid. If you pass on all of the above players, the last shot at an upper tier first basemen is Derek Lee or Billy Butler in the fifth round but there is no guarantee they make it back to your turn.

That would leave one power hitting first basemen left on the draft board in Carlos Pena. The power would help but depending on what you do in the first few rounds would impact whether you can afford to pick him or not. If you happened to grab Ian Kinsler and Jimmy Rollins in rounds 1 and 2, two guys that hit around .280 or lower, adding Pena to the mix would put at risk your points in the batting average category.


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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft – First Two Rounds

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2010

Here are the results from 10 fantasy baseball mock drafts I have participated in over the last week in 15 team mixed league formats. The list below shows the order of players selected, the percent of time they were drafted in the top 30 players and their high and low number in the top 30 picks.

One player on the rise is Matt Holliday who has gone from a mid second round pick to someone that has been appearing late in the first round in my most recent drafts.

15 Team Mixed Draft
Rank Name % Drafted High Low
1 Albert Pujols 100% 1 2
2 Hanley Ramirez 100% 1 2
3 Alex Rodriguez 100% 3 4
4 Chase Utley 100% 3 7
5 Ryan Braun 100% 4 6
6 Mark Teixeira 100% 5 10
7 Prince Fielder 100% 3 18
8 Matt Kemp 100% 3 13
9 Ryan Howard 100% 4 12
10 Evan Longoria 100% 8 13
11 Miguel Cabrera 100% 8 14
12 Joe Mauer 100% 5 19
13 Tim Lincecum 100% 10 17
14 David Wright 100% 8 21
15 Carl Crawford 100% 12 19
16 Ian Kinsler 100% 9 19
17 Troy Tulowitzki 100% 13 21
18 Matt Holliday 100% 10 27
19 Jacoby Ellsbury 100% 15 25
20 Jimmy Rollins 100% 16 26
21 Mark Reynolds 100% 17 28
22 Jose Reyes 100% 19 27
23 Justin Upton 90% 12 30
24 Roy Halladay 90% 16 30
25 Victor Martinez 80% 22 30
26 Brandon Phillips 60% 25 30
27 Grady Sizemore 50% 20 26
28 Joey Votto 50% 18 28
29 Felix Hernandez 50% 20 29
30 Ryan Zimmerman 50% 21 29

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2010 Fantasy Baseball – The First Round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

There has been much debate over where a fantasy baseball league is won; either the first half of the draft, or the middle rounds, or some combination of through the draft and then making the correct pickups in free agency.

What often gets overlooked however is the first round. While you are getting a good player in the first round, history has shown that you are not always getting the best value in the first round.

If you look at the first round average draft position of 2009, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman all did not earn first round value in a 15 team league, which is a 47% bust rate.

It gives some pause for thought how much you are willing to take a chance on an injured player like a Brandon Webb or hoping a young player like Chris Davis finds his way, knowing there is a good chance your first round pick might perform in terms of value of a player going in the third or fourth round.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – the number one pick, although if you are a big believer in position scarcity (which is a separate debate) Hanley Ramirez could go in this spot as I have seen in several mock drafts. Pujols has managed to play through elbow problems since injuring it back in 2003 so that is the only slight risk to him.

2) Hanley Ramirez – you have to weigh how comfortable you are with having a lesser player at shortstop if you have the first pick and opt for Pujols. If you pass on Hanley at 1 or 2, you are missing out on Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes coming back in the second round. Your pick in the third round is too early for Derek Jeter but he will not make it back to you in the fourth round so your starting shortstop would be someone in the next tier of players then.

3) Alex Rodriguez – how good is he? He put up almost the same number of home runs and RBI as Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman last season and he did it in 140 – 170 less at bats. He ran more the second half of the season when his hip was feeling better so there is no reason he cannot steal 20 or more bases this season.

4) Chase Utley – scores 110+ runs, hits 30+ home runs and last year was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which gives him an 88% success rate in his major league career. Not bad for a guy that was coming back from hip surgery.

5) Ryan Braun – in 2009 among all outfielders was, first in runs scored, tied for second in RBI, third in batting average and tied for eighth in home runs. Only 26 so he still has a good chance to hit 40 home runs in the next few seasons.

6) Matt Kemp – had a nice jump in numbers that saw him hit eight more home runs and drive in 25 more RBI compared to 2008 and he did it in the exact same number of at bats. He also managed to put up those numbers despite hitting seventh and eighth for 250 at bats last year.

7) Ryan Howard – I don’t mind the slightly lower batting average to get the additional home runs and RBI that he consistently provides every season. Four straight seasons of 45+ home runs and 136+ RBI gives you a good head start on those two categories.

8.) Mark Teixeira – numbers took a jump once Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees lineup last season Hit .200 in April with three home runs and then went nuts in May with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. Took advantage of his new home stadium by slugging 24 of his 39 home runs there.

9) Evan Longoria – power continues to develop with 44 doubles and 33 home runs at the age of 24 last year. Despite being a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen bases in his major league career, not sure if he ever gets close to 20 with his comments this week about his hamstrings being affected by the turf at Tropicana field.

10) Prince Fielder – matched power numbers of Ryan Howard last year, but has not show the ability to do it yet on a consistent basis every season. His 2009 numbers compared to his 2008 season is the difference between him being a first round pick and a third round selection.

11) Matt Holliday – showed he could still function away from Coors Field in splitting the season between Oakland and St. Louis. A return to the National League and the familiarity with pitching for a full season should keep his numbers intact.

12) Miguel Cabrera – I like the batting average, but his power is less than the other first basemen ahead of him in the first round. Has also scored less than 100 runs in each of the last three seasons.

13) Jimmy Rollins – lack of power in 2009 in the first half and an unlucky BABIP killed his value. No reason for him not to bounce back in 2010. Hard to find shortstops that will score 115+ runs with 20+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases.

14) David Wright – high batting average plus his ability to rack up steals at third base still gives him value, even if he doesn’t hit 30 home runs again. I would put his home run total between 2008 and 2009 levels and consider anything above that as gravy.

15) Troy Tulowitzki – position scarcity plus power and speed make him an attractive option at the end of the first round. Needs to improve his stolen base success rate though if he is going to be allowed to keep running. Hit 90 points higher the second half of the season in 2009.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Trends

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2010

After competing in several 2010 fantasy baseball mock drafts over the last few days, there are several trends that seem to be occurring that you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy baseball league.

1) The top five seems to be locked in place with Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Ryan Braun. Every once in awhile Matt Kemp or Ryan Howard may jump in the top 5, but other than that, the top is pretty well set from draft to draft.

2) David Wright is starting to slowly creep back up draft boards. His original average draft position (ADP) had him going in the early second round of 15 team mixed drafts. In the drafts from this current weekend, he was consistently in the first round and went as high as 11th. I think the majority of people are willing to give him a pass on last season and expect his numbers to return to 2008 levels.

3) Pitching continues to go very high in drafts. By the end of round seven, almost every top tiered pitcher is off the board. The next pitchers being drafted usually include a group from Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, and A.J. Burnett. If you are not comfortable with any one of those players being the first pitcher or second pitcher on your staff, you are going to have to plan on taking a pitcher a little bit earlier than you are accustomed to this season.

4) Relief pitchers are following the trend of starting pitchers and seem to be going higher than usual for the second group of 15 closers. In years past it seemed like you could maybe pick up a second closer that was still decent in rounds 13-15 or maybe even later. That no longer seems to be the case as the most dependable second 15 closers seem to be gone by the end of the 12th round, which is roughly the midway point of the draft. Once the 12th round is over, your options usually look like Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Octavio Dotel or taking a chance on the winner of the Toronto / Houston closer competition.

5) There has been one position that is showing a consistent “run” in a draft; that being the catcher position. It looks like the majority or owners have Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto ranked relatively close because once one of that group is drafted, the others seem to follow shortly after.

The next group after that then is Bengie Molina, Chris Ianetta, Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. This gives you an idea of where the two runs are for the group of catchers because if you miss the first one, you might be able to get someone from the second group depending where your draft position is.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball – The first round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

What do you expect from your first round draft pick in fantasy baseball? It is a question which could get you 10 different answers from 10 different people, but for me I have three different answers on that subject. If I am drafting in the top half of the first round, I am hoping that my pick maintains his value, that is put up numbers close to his previous years performance. Any improvement from that player is then gravy, additional stats that you were not counting on. If I am picking at the second half of the first round, I am trying to identify that player that will perform like a top 5 pick, thus giving me additional value in terms of stats relative to draft position.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2009 in fantasy baseball in order.

1) Hanley Ramirez – The top pick by far, it is scary to think he just turned 25 in December. With Ramirez slated to hit third for the Florida Marlins this season, there is a very good chance his numbers are even better than last year in power while his stolen bases remain flat. Check out his walk rate last season, has he took 40 more walks in 50 less at bats. I am projecting .300 avg 33 home runs 95 rbis which I think might be too conservative, with an upside of 40-40 with 120 rbi’s.

2) Jose Reyes - the New York Mets are experimenting with Reyes hitting third so far in spring training behind Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran. This makes Reyes an interesting choice in determining his draft slot between 2-5. I have him ranked second for several reasons, his amount of stolen bases alone account for almost 40% of your teams total in order to reach your goal of being in the top three in that category. If you don’t take Reyes here, there is a huge drop-off in shortstop after Jimmy Rollins who will be long gone by your pick in round two and I will always take a middle infielder over a corner hitter or outfielder when the values are close. Secondly, the chance of Reyes hitting third for the entire season give him upside of .300 avg 20 home runs, 85-90 rbi’s with 55-60 steals.

3) Alex Rodriguez - Assuming he does get suspended at any point during the season, I think A-Rod is the number two choice in the first round. I see numbers similar to the 2006 with an improved New York Yankees lineup in 2009.

4) David Wright - In 2007, Wright’s numbers were almost identical to A-Rod’s. Wright is in the lineup every day so he gets a few extra stats with his 600+ at bats. His 34 stolen bases in 2007 don’t look like they will be repeated. Wright attempted only 8 steals in 91 games once Jerry Manuel took over as manager last season.

5) Jimmy Rollins – Where did the power go? Rollins went from 30 home runs in 2007 to only 11 home runs last season. I think the ankle sprain he suffered in the early part of the season affected his power throughout the course of the year. I like Rollins here over Albert Pujols because of the position factor and the stolen bases. As mentioned in my earlier articles, I want 100+ steals after three rounds and Rollins gets me almost half of that number.

Okay, now it gets a little more tricky after the first five picks. The one unique thing if you are playing in the NFBC, is that you can choose you draft position somewhat, but listing your preferences for picks in order. You are still at the mercy of the random draw for name selection, but you can control somewhat where you pick. For me, ranking draft slots 1-15, I would have pick number 6 last. I don’t want it. After the first five picks, Pujols would be the pick by most people here, if not earlier. Outside of a little more average, there is a good chance that Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira will have similar numbers. If I am picking 6th, I expect to have a stat advantage over the person picking 10-15 and with Pujols compared to the other 1b, I don’t see a huge difference, so my number six pick is:

6) Grady Sizemore - I have not that excited with his average but he is still young and hit .290 in 2006 so there is a little upside there. His 30-30 home run / steal combo plus 90+ rbi’s and runs scored make him an ideal #6 pick in my eyes.

7) Albert Pujols – as solid as they come, would be nice for him to hit double digits in steals one of these years like he did in 2005 but I guess that is nitpicking. He has not hit under .327 since 2002.

8.) Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera had a solid first year in ther American league, but if you look inside his numbers, it could be even better in 2009. In the last three months of 2008, Cabrera hit 26 home runs with 79 rbi’s in only 79 games. He also qualifies at 3b in leagues where the position eligibility requirement is 10 games.

9) Ryan Braun – Had a superb sophomore season, hitting 37 home runs with 14 stolen bases. He has some room to grow his batting average this year and has a good shot at surpassing 4o home runs.

10) Chase Utley - If I knew for a fact that he would be 100% healthy the entire season, I would have no problem taking him ahead of Pujols at #7. Utley’s numbers are in the David Wright range, without the stolen base upside that Wright or A-Rod offers.

11) Ryan Howard – The potential to add 50 home runs at this point in the first round is too hard to pass up. Howard was hitting under .230 for most of the season until he heated up in September. Not a good sign that his walk rate decreased in 81 more at bats last year.

12) Evan Longoria – If you want him, you are probably going to have to take him here if he is not already gone, because he will not make it back to your pick in the second round. If you extrapolate his numbers out for the full season at 600 at bats, he would have hit 36 home runs and drvien in 114 runs.

13) Carlos Beltran – His home runs have declined for two consecutive seasons while his stolen bases have been on the rise. He is a legit 30-30 threat and has driven in 100+ runs the past three years.

14) Alfonso Soriano – Soriano was limited by a broken hand in 2008 as well as a calf strain which cut down his stolen base numbers. He has talked this spring of 30 steals this year, but lots of guys talk of running in the spring. I would still pencil him in for only 20 steals and take anything over that as gravy.

15) Mark Teixeira – Teixeira has put up three straight seasons of pretty consistent numbers outside of a slight increase in batting average. Hitting in the New York Yankees lineup should help his numbers in 2009. Still has the upside of 40 home runs.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With now less than a month from when your fantasy draft will most likely take place, it is time to examine draft day strategy for rotisserie leagues. For this article, I am going to assume a 14 or 15 team league with 5 x 5 categories that we are playing in.

In the first three rounds, I am looking for 5 category hitters. Each of my top three guys need to be able to steal bases and provide stats in the other categories as well. I know that from past draft experience, stolen bases tend to dry up pretty fast after the first few rounds, and I don’t want to be stuck taking a one dimensional player like a Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn or someone that is only going to steal 40 bases and contribute little in the other categories. Especially where an injured hamstring or a change in managers can cause the 40-50 steals you might have been expecting from that player to be cut in half. If you can accumulate 75-100 steals with your first three picks, you are well on your way to hitting the top three category goal of 150 to 160 stolen bases for your team.

While some people scoff at position scarcity, I am a firm believer in it. My goal is to build my team from the inside out, starting with the middle infield, then 3b, Catcher, then 1B and OF. The reason for this is I am looking to have an advantage at positions where the middle to bottom tier players are average to weak in stats and the player group is small.

For example, in the first round, I am looking for a SS, one of the top 3, then 3b, either A Rod or David Wright and then 2B if Utley is healthy or Ian Kinsler. The reason is if I pick 4th and take David Wright, it is much easier for me to find an outfielder later in the draft compared to another owner that takes an outfielder like Josh Hamilton or Carlos Beltran and has to find a third baseman late in the draft. The player pool for outfielders and first baseman is so much larger than the other positions that it is best to focus on those later in the draft when possible. Taking a player like Wright at a position where not many players steal bases, gives you another advantage against your competition because if you need steals later in the draft, it will be much easier to find them from an outfielder compared to another owner trying to find them at third base.

If I had the first pick in the draft, here is my first four round projection of selections. I would be looking to take Hanley Ramirez 1st overall, with back to back picks in round 2 and 3, some combination of Dustin Pedrioa / Brian Roberts / Brandon Phillips and Russ Martin (again, looking for steals and good stats at a weak position). In round 4 and 5 with back to back picks I would be looking at Rafael Furcal, Geovany Soto (for leagues where two catchers are required), or possibly Corey Hart.

My next few rounds I would focus on pitchers and then come rounds 10-13, focus on outfield and first base when there would still be plenty of talent available.

So in addition to doing fantasy baseball  mock drafts and checking out average draft positions, it helps to plot out your draft for what positions you might want for each of the rounds. By doing this, you will be surprised how many guys you are able to select when the real draft comes that you want, instead of watching guys get taken two or three picks before your turn that you were hoping slid to you or missing out on a hitter or pitcher run at a particular position.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

If someone handed you the fantasy baseball stats for the 2009 season right now, would you win your league, assuming it was a one year draft from scratch league? What if every team in the draft had the exact same stats as you did before the draft, how confident would you be that your team would still win the league?

There are so many web sites, magazines and talking heads out there that the information for fantasy baseball nowadays is almost as much “noise” as it is “news”. After awhile, all of the information tends to get lumped together. You have to assume that whatever projections for stats you have, the rest of the guys in the league have pretty similar projections also, minus a counting stat or two. The key then becomes knowing when you can obtain each stat.

A great way to do this is to have a mock draft; in fact several mock drafts.  You can go to a site like Mock Draft Central and join for a free a mock draft, review expert drafts that have already taken place or check out the results from previous drafts in their ADP (Average Draft Position) section.

Once you know the draft position of where you will be drafting, doing a mock draft gives you a great idea of what players will be available when it is your turn to pick. With so many of the online drafts now using a timer for each draft pick, it is critical to have a good idea of who you like once your choice is up so you don’t end up making an unwise hasty selection before the timer goes off, or even worse, the timer expires and the computer auto-drafts for you.

After you complete the mock draft, total up your team stats and compare them to the previous years standings to see where your team ranks in each of the categories. You should have a target goal of third place or better for each of the categories in order to finish in the top third of your league. By reviewing the stats, it will shed some light on categories you might be lacking in based on your draft position so you can adjust your strategy going into the real draft.

Remember though, that the real draft will in reality most likely differ quite a bit from the mock draft. Depending on who you do the mock draft with, people are less likely to pick their “sleeper” picks, instead letting them slide to see where another owner takes them to try and assess how other owners value a particular player they like.

I have heard many an owner after a draft exclaim something like, “wow, I cant believe so-and-so went in the 13th round, he went in the 19th round or later in all of the mock drafts that I did”. Be prepared to adjust throughout the draft as players you were hoping slide to to you don’t. There is no such thing as “sleeper” anymore in fantasy baseball. If you do your due diligence before the draft, you will be prepared come draft day.

The draft is not won in the first half of the draft; all of the teams look pretty similar on paper at that point. It is the last half of the draft where championship teams are built (in addition to the waiver wire and trades if your league has them). Understanding where the depth may be at a certain position late in the draft or where the second closer run will start midway through the draft is knowledge that can only be gained through doing a mock draft.

So give yourself a step up on your competition and start fantasy baseball mock drafting today. It will give you great insight into your drafting style and fantasy baseball draft strategy and puts you one step closer to bringing home your leagues fantasy baseball championship in 2009.

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