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NFBC Draft Analysis

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 30th, 2010

This past Saturday I competed in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) in Las Vegas in a 15-team mixed league draft. It was a Rotisserie league format with standard 5 x 5 categories. Due to the cost of the entry fees and the prizes that are paid out, all of the NFBC leagues are no trade leagues in order to avoid possible collusion.

Heading into the draft with the #1 pick, I was still debating on Albert Pujols vs. Hanley Ramirez and also how I was going to cope with waiting 28 picks between rounds because of the snake draft. Here is a look at the team with the rounds they were drafted in parenthesis.

Hitters:

C – Victor Martinez (2) – same as in my auction, one of the guys I was targeting, as I have written many times before, I don’t believe in punting the catcher position.

C – Russell Martin (11) – again, same comment applies from my auction, I wasn’t looking to get Martin, but I needed his 10 stolen bases.

1B – Albert Pujols (1) – despite the numerous fantasy baseball leagues I play in each year, I have not owned Pujols a full year since his rookie season. I was debating on Hanley Ramirez, but I took Pujols and hoped that Jose Reyes would make it back to me at the end of round two, but unfortunately he did not.

2B – Brandon Phillips (2) – in my mock drafts I was debating between him and Dustin Pedroia. Since Pedroia was off the board at my pick, it made the decision easier.

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (10) – high average, should steal a few bases and should score a lot of runs hitting lead off.

3B – Chone Figgins (6) – Not sure I really wanted him, but with Juan Pierre my outfield target already off the board I figured I better grab the stolen bases while I could.

Cor – Paul Konerko (14) – I was very happy he slid back to me.

Mid – Jose Lopez (8) – was happy to get 20 home runs from a middle infielder

OF – Shin-Soo Choo (4) – one of my targets, love to get 20-20 outfielders.

OF – Franklin Gutierrez (12) – hoping that he gets up to 20-20 this season.

OF – Lastings Milledge (16) – same comment as on my auction team, not a huge fan of his, but needed 20 steals and he was the best fit. He is only 25 so there is still some upside there.

OF – Cody Ross (18) – mmm, not much to say.

OF – Will Venable (20) – for some reason I like him, not sure why, I think he has the chance to steal 20 bases with a little bit of power.

UT – Aaron Rowand (22) – really embarrassed to have to type that.

Overall, I am short on power unless Pujols hits 50 and Brandon Phillips hits 30. My outfield is in bad shape, but somehow the rest of my other categories I seem to have met my targets on, although my batting average might be a percentage or two lower than what I need.

Pitchers:

P – Tommy Hanson (5) – picking at #1, I knew that if I did not take a pitcher here, there was not going to be anyone in the top tier left at my next pick.

P – Chad Billingsley (7) – I like him and am willing to discount his second half of last season.

P – Randy Wolf (15) – decent strikeouts, ERA and WHIP should be higher than in 2009, but still a guy I like in round 15.

P – Brian Matusz (17) – has been getting some hype this spring, but still pitches in the American League East which limits his upside slightly.

P – Ian Kennedy (19) – despite his injuries in the past, I still believe in his minor league numbers and the move to the National League should help, despite his new home ballpark.

P – Bronson Arroyo (21) – just have to keep reminding him, “no guitar, no guitar”.

P – Bud Norris (23) – still a pitch short of being a successful starting pitcher. I like him for his strikeouts, will have to spot start him.

RP – Jose Valverde (9) – I think he is in the second tier of closers after the top 3-4.

RP – Bobby Jenks (13) – crossing my fingers he holds it together for the full season.

I like my staff a lot more than the staff from my auction team. I think Hanson and Billingsley are two solid anchors and Kennedy and Matusz have some upside. I have some work to do on my ratios based on my projections unless Matusz, Kennedy and Norris are able to make some improvements.

Reserves:

Rd 1 – Jeremy Hellickson – I expect him up by the middle of the season although it is hard to see who he would replace based on the current Tampa Bay rotation.

Rd 2 – Jose Guillen – not sure if this is better or worse than Aaron Rowand

Rd 3 – Mike Adams – when / if Heath Bell gets traded, I think Adams takes over.

Rd 4 – C.J. Wilson – a flier

Rd 5 – Chris Carter (Oakland) – with Oakland short on power, I think he is up in July.

Rd 6 – Ramon Ortiz – late round gamble on him winning the 5th starter job with the Dodgers

Rd 7 – David Bush – Rick Peterson will work his magic with at least one Milwaukee Brewers pitcher, hopefully I picked the right one.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Leagues – Draft Position

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 1st, 2010

Now that we have been looking at fantasy baseball mock drafts, it is time to look at draft position and how that impacts your fantasy baseball team. For the purpose of this discussion, we will be using a 15 team mixed league format.

Usually there are several positions I want to grab in the early rounds of the draft based on the depth or lack of depth at a position. Some places in the draft order mean you will not have a shot at any of these positions. If you are not comfortable with having either a weak shortstop of second basemen or whatever position you value, than you might need to adjust your strategy or grab a player a round earlier than you wanted to because he will not make it back to your pick in the next round.

Some fantasy baseball leagues offer you the chance to list a preference for your draft order. If that is case, it pays to have made sure you have done several mock drafts from multiple positions before the real event. Every year I feel there is a stronger part of the draft order where an owner might have a slight advantage for drafting. Knowing where this spot is in your draft can make a huge difference in you winning or losing you fantasy baseball league.

Let’s take a look at some of the sections of the draft and assess the strengths and weaknesses of each group.

Picks 1-5: If you value a shortstop, unless you get Hanley Ramirez, you are most likely in trouble. From the previous fantasy baseball mock draft article we know it is likely that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are not going to make it back in the second round. Derek Jeter is there in the third round but it is probably a little early to take him based on other value on the board.

Also at risk picking in these slots are your team stolen base totals. I usually try to set a goal of getting 40% of my teams stolen bases from my first three picks of the draft. Unless you grab Matt Kemp in the top five, chances are you are getting 15-20 steals from your first round pick. On the way back in the second round unless Justin Upton or Grady Sizemore slide to you, the only real stolen base numbers come from second basemen like Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia or Brian Roberts. Chances are though that if you took Chase Utley in the first round, you are not going to grab another second basemen in round two so you have to look elsewhere for steals.

In the third round, stolen base options would be a second basemen if you did not grab one in round two, Jayson Werth or reaching for Ichiro Suzuki or Derek Jeter. So if your goal for stolen bases is 170, and we are aiming for 40%, then we want to try and get 68 steals from the first three picks. Picking in the top 5 spots assuming no Kemp and unless Upton or Sizemore slide, you are most likely only going to be at around 40 to 50 steals so you need to keep that in mind as you prepare for the draft.

Picks 6-10: This is not a bad spot to be in as after the top five, the opinions widely vary on the next group of players so sitting at 10, there is a good chance that you could get one of the top players on your draft board.

Same potential problems with missing out on a shortstop lie in this draft range. Also at issue is possibly second base assuming Utley does not slide. There is a very good chance that Phillips, Pedroia and Roberts are all gone by the time the third round pick comes. That leaves possible options of Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, or Ben Zobrist coming back in the fourth round.

Third base could be an issue as well as you miss out on A-Rod in the first round and on David Wright in the second round. Mark Reynolds might slide to this group, but if you take Ryan Howard in the first round, it would be hard to take Reynolds here because you would start in a huge hole from a batting average perspective. Ryan Zimmerman and Kevin Youkilis are gone by the end of round two / start of round three so you miss them in the third round which leaves possibly Pablo Sandoval or Aramis Ramirez in the third round or else take the risk of hoping Ramirez slides back to your spot in the fourth round.

If you like to take catchers early, this spot could work to your advantage as you would like have a shot at Joe Mauer in the first, Victor Martinez in the second and Brian McCann in the third.

Picks 11-15: If you are a fan of position scarcity, this spot of the draft will give you some great draft selections with David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Kinsler all in this range. It is also a good spot to grab stolen bases with the above listed players as well as Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury in the mix as well.

Downside to this spot is you miss out on a top tier first basemen most likely. Five first basemen are off the board if the current average draft position (ADP) numbers hold up, as well as missing out on Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau in the second round on the way back. Possible options in the third or fourth round would be Kendry Morales, Lance Berkman or Pablo Sandoval if he slid. If you pass on all of the above players, the last shot at an upper tier first basemen is Derek Lee or Billy Butler in the fifth round but there is no guarantee they make it back to your turn.

That would leave one power hitting first basemen left on the draft board in Carlos Pena. The power would help but depending on what you do in the first few rounds would impact whether you can afford to pick him or not. If you happened to grab Ian Kinsler and Jimmy Rollins in rounds 1 and 2, two guys that hit around .280 or lower, adding Pena to the mix would put at risk your points in the batting average category.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft – First Two Rounds

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2010

Here are the results from 10 fantasy baseball mock drafts I have participated in over the last week in 15 team mixed league formats. The list below shows the order of players selected, the percent of time they were drafted in the top 30 players and their high and low number in the top 30 picks.

One player on the rise is Matt Holliday who has gone from a mid second round pick to someone that has been appearing late in the first round in my most recent drafts.

15 Team Mixed Draft
Rank	Name	% Drafted	High	Low
1	Albert Pujols	100%	1	2
2	Hanley Ramirez	100%	1	2
3	Alex Rodriguez	100%	3	4
4	Chase Utley	100%	3	7
5	Ryan Braun	100%	4	6
6	Mark Teixeira	100%	5	10
7	Prince Fielder	100%	3	18
8	Matt Kemp	100%	3	13
9	Ryan Howard	100%	4	12
10	Evan Longoria	100%	8	13
11	Miguel Cabrera	100%	8	14
12	Joe Mauer	100%	5	19
13	Tim Lincecum	100%	10	17
14	David Wright	100%	8	21
15	Carl Crawford	100%	12	19
16	Ian Kinsler	100%	9	19
17	Troy Tulowitzki	100%	13	21
18	Matt Holliday	100%	10	27
19	Jacoby Ellsbury	100%	15	25
20	Jimmy Rollins	100%	16	26
21	Mark Reynolds	100%	17	28
22	Jose Reyes	100%	19	27
23	Justin Upton	90%	12	30
24	Roy Halladay	90%	16	30
25	Victor Martinez	80%	22	30
26	Brandon Phillips	60%	25	30
27	Grady Sizemore	50%	20	26
28	Joey Votto	50%	18	28
29	Felix Hernandez	50%	20	29
30	Ryan Zimmerman	50%	21	29

2010 Fantasy Baseball – The First Round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

There has been much debate over where a fantasy baseball league is won; either the first half of the draft, or the middle rounds, or some combination of through the draft and then making the correct pickups in free agency.

What often gets overlooked however is the first round. While you are getting a good player in the first round, history has shown that you are not always getting the best value in the first round.

If you look at the first round average draft position of 2009, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman all did not earn first round value in a 15 team league, which is a 47% bust rate.

It gives some pause for thought how much you are willing to take a chance on an injured player like a Brandon Webb or hoping a young player like Chris Davis finds his way, knowing there is a good chance your first round pick might perform in terms of value of a player going in the third or fourth round.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – the number one pick, although if you are a big believer in position scarcity (which is a separate debate) Hanley Ramirez could go in this spot as I have seen in several mock drafts. Pujols has managed to play through elbow problems since injuring it back in 2003 so that is the only slight risk to him.

2) Hanley Ramirez – you have to weigh how comfortable you are with having a lesser player at shortstop if you have the first pick and opt for Pujols. If you pass on Hanley at 1 or 2, you are missing out on Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes coming back in the second round. Your pick in the third round is too early for Derek Jeter but he will not make it back to you in the fourth round so your starting shortstop would be someone in the next tier of players then.

3) Alex Rodriguez – how good is he? He put up almost the same number of home runs and RBI as Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman last season and he did it in 140 – 170 less at bats. He ran more the second half of the season when his hip was feeling better so there is no reason he cannot steal 20 or more bases this season.

4) Chase Utley – scores 110+ runs, hits 30+ home runs and last year was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which gives him an 88% success rate in his major league career. Not bad for a guy that was coming back from hip surgery.

5) Ryan Braun – in 2009 among all outfielders was, first in runs scored, tied for second in RBI, third in batting average and tied for eighth in home runs. Only 26 so he still has a good chance to hit 40 home runs in the next few seasons.

6) Matt Kemp – had a nice jump in numbers that saw him hit eight more home runs and drive in 25 more RBI compared to 2008 and he did it in the exact same number of at bats. He also managed to put up those numbers despite hitting seventh and eighth for 250 at bats last year.

7) Ryan Howard – I don’t mind the slightly lower batting average to get the additional home runs and RBI that he consistently provides every season. Four straight seasons of 45+ home runs and 136+ RBI gives you a good head start on those two categories.

8.) Mark Teixeira – numbers took a jump once Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees lineup last season Hit .200 in April with three home runs and then went nuts in May with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. Took advantage of his new home stadium by slugging 24 of his 39 home runs there.

9) Evan Longoria – power continues to develop with 44 doubles and 33 home runs at the age of 24 last year. Despite being a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen bases in his major league career, not sure if he ever gets close to 20 with his comments this week about his hamstrings being affected by the turf at Tropicana field.

10) Prince Fielder – matched power numbers of Ryan Howard last year, but has not show the ability to do it yet on a consistent basis every season. His 2009 numbers compared to his 2008 season is the difference between him being a first round pick and a third round selection.

11) Matt Holliday – showed he could still function away from Coors Field in splitting the season between Oakland and St. Louis. A return to the National League and the familiarity with pitching for a full season should keep his numbers intact.

12) Miguel Cabrera – I like the batting average, but his power is less than the other first basemen ahead of him in the first round. Has also scored less than 100 runs in each of the last three seasons.

13) Jimmy Rollins – lack of power in 2009 in the first half and an unlucky BABIP killed his value. No reason for him not to bounce back in 2010. Hard to find shortstops that will score 115+ runs with 20+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases.

14) David Wright – high batting average plus his ability to rack up steals at third base still gives him value, even if he doesn’t hit 30 home runs again. I would put his home run total between 2008 and 2009 levels and consider anything above that as gravy.

15) Troy Tulowitzki – position scarcity plus power and speed make him an attractive option at the end of the first round. Needs to improve his stolen base success rate though if he is going to be allowed to keep running. Hit 90 points higher the second half of the season in 2009.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Trends

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2010

After competing in several 2010 fantasy baseball mock drafts over the last few days, there are several trends that seem to be occurring that you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy baseball league.

1) The top five seems to be locked in place with Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Ryan Braun. Every once in awhile Matt Kemp or Ryan Howard may jump in the top 5, but other than that, the top is pretty well set from draft to draft.

2) David Wright is starting to slowly creep back up draft boards. His original average draft position (ADP) had him going in the early second round of 15 team mixed drafts. In the drafts from this current weekend, he was consistently in the first round and went as high as 11th. I think the majority of people are willing to give him a pass on last season and expect his numbers to return to 2008 levels.

3) Pitching continues to go very high in drafts. By the end of round seven, almost every top tiered pitcher is off the board. The next pitchers being drafted usually include a group from Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, and A.J. Burnett. If you are not comfortable with any one of those players being the first pitcher or second pitcher on your staff, you are going to have to plan on taking a pitcher a little bit earlier than you are accustomed to this season.

4) Relief pitchers are following the trend of starting pitchers and seem to be going higher than usual for the second group of 15 closers. In years past it seemed like you could maybe pick up a second closer that was still decent in rounds 13-15 or maybe even later. That no longer seems to be the case as the most dependable second 15 closers seem to be gone by the end of the 12th round, which is roughly the midway point of the draft. Once the 12th round is over, your options usually look like Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Octavio Dotel or taking a chance on the winner of the Toronto / Houston closer competition.

5) There has been one position that is showing a consistent “run” in a draft; that being the catcher position. It looks like the majority or owners have Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto ranked relatively close because once one of that group is drafted, the others seem to follow shortly after.

The next group after that then is Bengie Molina, Chris Ianetta, Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. This gives you an idea of where the two runs are for the group of catchers because if you miss the first one, you might be able to get someone from the second group depending where your draft position is.

2009 Fantasy Baseball – The first round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

What do you expect from your first round draft pick in fantasy baseball? It is a question which could get you 10 different answers from 10 different people, but for me I have three different answers on that subject. If I am drafting in the top half of the first round, I am hoping that my pick maintains his value, that is put up numbers close to his previous years performance. Any improvement from that player is then gravy, additional stats that you were not counting on. If I am picking at the second half of the first round, I am trying to identify that player that will perform like a top 5 pick, thus giving me additional value in terms of stats relative to draft position.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2009 in fantasy baseball in order.

1) Hanley Ramirez – The top pick by far, it is scary to think he just turned 25 in December. With Ramirez slated to hit third for the Florida Marlins this season, there is a very good chance his numbers are even better than last year in power while his stolen bases remain flat. Check out his walk rate last season, has he took 40 more walks in 50 less at bats. I am projecting .300 avg 33 home runs 95 rbis which I think might be too conservative, with an upside of 40-40 with 120 rbi’s.

2) Jose Reyes - the New York Mets are experimenting with Reyes hitting third so far in spring training behind Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran. This makes Reyes an interesting choice in determining his draft slot between 2-5. I have him ranked second for several reasons, his amount of stolen bases alone account for almost 40% of your teams total in order to reach your goal of being in the top three in that category. If you don’t take Reyes here, there is a huge drop-off in shortstop after Jimmy Rollins who will be long gone by your pick in round two and I will always take a middle infielder over a corner hitter or outfielder when the values are close. Secondly, the chance of Reyes hitting third for the entire season give him upside of .300 avg 20 home runs, 85-90 rbi’s with 55-60 steals.

3) Alex Rodriguez - Assuming he does get suspended at any point during the season, I think A-Rod is the number two choice in the first round. I see numbers similar to the 2006 with an improved New York Yankees lineup in 2009.

4) David Wright - In 2007, Wright’s numbers were almost identical to A-Rod’s. Wright is in the lineup every day so he gets a few extra stats with his 600+ at bats. His 34 stolen bases in 2007 don’t look like they will be repeated. Wright attempted only 8 steals in 91 games once Jerry Manuel took over as manager last season.

5) Jimmy Rollins – Where did the power go? Rollins went from 30 home runs in 2007 to only 11 home runs last season. I think the ankle sprain he suffered in the early part of the season affected his power throughout the course of the year. I like Rollins here over Albert Pujols because of the position factor and the stolen bases. As mentioned in my earlier articles, I want 100+ steals after three rounds and Rollins gets me almost half of that number.

Okay, now it gets a little more tricky after the first five picks. The one unique thing if you are playing in the NFBC, is that you can choose you draft position somewhat, but listing your preferences for picks in order. You are still at the mercy of the random draw for name selection, but you can control somewhat where you pick. For me, ranking draft slots 1-15, I would have pick number 6 last. I don’t want it. After the first five picks, Pujols would be the pick by most people here, if not earlier. Outside of a little more average, there is a good chance that Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira will have similar numbers. If I am picking 6th, I expect to have a stat advantage over the person picking 10-15 and with Pujols compared to the other 1b, I don’t see a huge difference, so my number six pick is:

6) Grady Sizemore - I have not that excited with his average but he is still young and hit .290 in 2006 so there is a little upside there. His 30-30 home run / steal combo plus 90+ rbi’s and runs scored make him an ideal #6 pick in my eyes.

7) Albert Pujols – as solid as they come, would be nice for him to hit double digits in steals one of these years like he did in 2005 but I guess that is nitpicking. He has not hit under .327 since 2002.

8.) Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera had a solid first year in ther American league, but if you look inside his numbers, it could be even better in 2009. In the last three months of 2008, Cabrera hit 26 home runs with 79 rbi’s in only 79 games. He also qualifies at 3b in leagues where the position eligibility requirement is 10 games.

9) Ryan Braun – Had a superb sophomore season, hitting 37 home runs with 14 stolen bases. He has some room to grow his batting average this year and has a good shot at surpassing 4o home runs.

10) Chase Utley - If I knew for a fact that he would be 100% healthy the entire season, I would have no problem taking him ahead of Pujols at #7. Utley’s numbers are in the David Wright range, without the stolen base upside that Wright or A-Rod offers.

11) Ryan Howard – The potential to add 50 home runs at this point in the first round is too hard to pass up. Howard was hitting under .230 for most of the season until he heated up in September. Not a good sign that his walk rate decreased in 81 more at bats last year.

12) Evan Longoria – If you want him, you are probably going to have to take him here if he is not already gone, because he will not make it back to your pick in the second round. If you extrapolate his numbers out for the full season at 600 at bats, he would have hit 36 home runs and drvien in 114 runs.

13) Carlos Beltran – His home runs have declined for two consecutive seasons while his stolen bases have been on the rise. He is a legit 30-30 threat and has driven in 100+ runs the past three years.

14) Alfonso Soriano – Soriano was limited by a broken hand in 2008 as well as a calf strain which cut down his stolen base numbers. He has talked this spring of 30 steals this year, but lots of guys talk of running in the spring. I would still pencil him in for only 20 steals and take anything over that as gravy.

15) Mark Teixeira – Teixeira has put up three straight seasons of pretty consistent numbers outside of a slight increase in batting average. Hitting in the New York Yankees lineup should help his numbers in 2009. Still has the upside of 40 home runs.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With now less than a month from when your fantasy draft will most likely take place, it is time to examine draft day strategy for rotisserie leagues. For this article, I am going to assume a 14 or 15 team league with 5 x 5 categories that we are playing in.

In the first three rounds, I am looking for 5 category hitters. Each of my top three guys need to be able to steal bases and provide stats in the other categories as well. I know that from past draft experience, stolen bases tend to dry up pretty fast after the first few rounds, and I don’t want to be stuck taking a one dimensional player like a Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn or someone that is only going to steal 40 bases and contribute little in the other categories. Especially where an injured hamstring or a change in managers can cause the 40-50 steals you might have been expecting from that player to be cut in half. If you can accumulate 75-100 steals with your first three picks, you are well on your way to hitting the top three category goal of 150 to 160 stolen bases for your team.

While some people scoff at position scarcity, I am a firm believer in it. My goal is to build my team from the inside out, starting with the middle infield, then 3b, Catcher, then 1B and OF. The reason for this is I am looking to have an advantage at positions where the middle to bottom tier players are average to weak in stats and the player group is small.

For example, in the first round, I am looking for a SS, one of the top 3, then 3b, either A Rod or David Wright and then 2B if Utley is healthy or Ian Kinsler. The reason is if I pick 4th and take David Wright, it is much easier for me to find an outfielder later in the draft compared to another owner that takes an outfielder like Josh Hamilton or Carlos Beltran and has to find a third baseman late in the draft. The player pool for outfielders and first baseman is so much larger than the other positions that it is best to focus on those later in the draft when possible. Taking a player like Wright at a position where not many players steal bases, gives you another advantage against your competition because if you need steals later in the draft, it will be much easier to find them from an outfielder compared to another owner trying to find them at third base.

If I had the first pick in the draft, here is my first four round projection of selections. I would be looking to take Hanley Ramirez 1st overall, with back to back picks in round 2 and 3, some combination of Dustin Pedrioa / Brian Roberts / Brandon Phillips and Russ Martin (again, looking for steals and good stats at a weak position). In round 4 and 5 with back to back picks I would be looking at Rafael Furcal, Geovany Soto (for leagues where two catchers are required), or possibly Corey Hart.

My next few rounds I would focus on pitchers and then come rounds 10-13, focus on outfield and first base when there would still be plenty of talent available.

So in addition to doing fantasy baseball mock drafts and checking out average draft positions, it helps to plot out your draft for what positions you might want for each of the rounds. By doing this, you will be surprised how many guys you are able to select when the real draft comes that you want, instead of watching guys get taken two or three picks before your turn that you were hoping slid to you or missing out on a hitter or pitcher run at a particular position.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

If someone handed you the fantasy baseball stats for the 2009 season right now, would you win your league, assuming it was a one year draft from scratch league? What if every team in the draft had the exact same stats as you did before the draft, how confident would you be that your team would still win the league?

There are so many web sites, magazines and talking heads out there that the information for fantasy baseball nowadays is almost as much “noise” as it is “news”. After awhile, all of the information tends to get lumped together. You have to assume that whatever projections for stats you have, the rest of the guys in the league have pretty similar projections also, minus a counting stat or two. The key then becomes knowing when you can obtain each stat.

A great way to do this is to have a mock draft; in fact several mock drafts. You can go to a site like Mock Draft Central and join for a free a mock draft, review expert drafts that have already taken place or check out the results from previous drafts in their ADP (Average Draft Position) section.

Once you know the draft position of where you will be drafting, doing a mock draft gives you a great idea of what players will be available when it is your turn to pick. With so many of the online drafts now using a timer for each draft pick, it is critical to have a good idea of who you like once your choice is up so you don’t end up making an unwise hasty selection before the timer goes off, or even worse, the timer expires and the computer auto-drafts for you.

After you complete the mock draft, total up your team stats and compare them to the previous years standings to see where your team ranks in each of the categories. You should have a target goal of third place or better for each of the categories in order to finish in the top third of your league. By reviewing the stats, it will shed some light on categories you might be lacking in based on your draft position so you can adjust your strategy going into the real draft.

Remember though, that the real draft will in reality most likely differ quite a bit from the mock draft. Depending on who you do the mock draft with, people are less likely to pick their “sleeper” picks, instead letting them slide to see where another owner takes them to try and assess how other owners value a particular player they like.

I have heard many an owner after a draft exclaim something like, “wow, I cant believe so-and-so went in the 13th round, he went in the 19th round or later in all of the mock drafts that I did”. Be prepared to adjust throughout the draft as players you were hoping slide to to you don’t. There is no such thing as “sleeper” anymore in fantasy baseball. If you do your due diligence before the draft, you will be prepared come draft day.

The draft is not won in the first half of the draft; all of the teams look pretty similar on paper at that point. It is the last half of the draft where championship teams are built (in addition to the waiver wire and trades if your league has them). Understanding where the depth may be at a certain position late in the draft or where the second closer run will start midway through the draft is knowledge that can only be gained through doing a mock draft.

So give yourself a step up on your competition and start fantasy baseball mock drafting today. It will give you great insight into your drafting style and fantasy baseball draft strategy and puts you one step closer to bringing home your leagues fantasy baseball championship in 2009.

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