Archive for the ‘By Tier’ Category

2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Relief Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for relief pitchers.

Tier 1:

Joakim Soria, Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, Neftali Feliz

By the end of next week, we should have a better idea if the Texas Rangers are going to move Feliz into the starting rotation or leave him in the closer role.

Tier 2:

Carlos Marmol, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez

Rivera is likely a Tier 1 closer for some people, but his age and drop in strikeout rate pushes him into Tier 2 for me. Every year, we keep saying he is defying his age in terms of performance, but I would rather be out on him one year early than one year too late.

Tier 3:

Andrew Bailey, Huston Street, Jose Valverde, John Axford, Chris Perez, J.J. Putz, Joe Nathan

Quite a few of these guys have some injury concerns and Axford and Perez were closers really for the first time last season, so there is a lot more risk in this tier than in the previous two.

Tier 4:

Jonathan Broxton, Matt Thornton, Francisco Cordero, Drew Storen, Ryan Franklin, Brad Lidge

I think there is some good value for Thornton since the buzz about Chris Sale has pushed his value a couple of rounds lower than where it should be. If you end up with Broxton, you better try and grab Hong-Chih Kuo or Kenley Jansen as a handcuff.

Tier 5:

Craig Kimbrel, David Aardsma, Frank Francisco, Kevin Gregg, Jake McGee

Kimbrel is facing some strong competition from Jonny Venters in spring and could be on the outside looking in at the closer role if he does not start piling up a few more clean innings. McGee has not been officially named the closer in Tampa Bay yet, but he has the best arm in the Rays bullpen.

Tier 6:

Joel Hanrahan, Leo Nunez, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney

Tier 7:

Jonny Venters, Ryan Madson, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chris Sale, Koji Uehara, Evan Meek, Aroldis Chapman

With a 25-30% failure rate for fantasy baseball closers each season, it is a good bet that several names in this tier will finish the season with 15-20 saves.

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball projections, be sure to grab your copy of the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Starting Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 11th, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

There have been several changes in spring training already in the top fantasy baseball tiers for starting pitchers with Adam Wainwright out for the season and Zack Greinke starting the season on the disabled list with a rib injury. Taking three starts away from him cost him six spots in my player rankings, so a few guys will be moving up in my next release of the 2011 FBT fantasy baseball draft guide.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for starting pitchers.

Tier 1:

Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester

Halladay looks to be in season shape as he is close to throwing complete games in spring training. The only knock on King Felix is the lack of run support from the Seattle offense. Lester has won 50 games the last three seasons with 225 strikeouts the last two years. Lee has seen a big increase in control the last few seasons as he has become more reliant on his cutter.

Tier 2:

Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver, David Price, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Josh Johnson.

I am a little iffy on Carpenter and Josh Johnson in this group given their injury history. With as deep as pitching seems to be this year and plenty of decent pitchers to find in the middle rounds of a fantasy baseball draft, personally I would avoid them and let someone else take the risk.

Tier 3:

Zack Greinke, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, Francisco Liriano, Yovani Gallardo, Roy Oswalt

A little bit smaller group for Tier 3 as I think there are some unique things these pitchers have compared to the next group, either in terms of one dominant quality or more consistency. I really like Hanson from this group and think we are going to see more strikeouts from him either this season or next. Greinke as I mentioned above gets bumped down since he will miss several starts.

Tier 4:

Ryan Demspter, Wandy Rodriquez, Chad Billingsley, Colby Lewis, Matt Garza, Dan Hudson, Max Scherzer, John Danks, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Sanchez, Shaun Marcum

For some reason I seem to like Dempster more than most. I think people remember his stats back when he was a relief pitcher and are missing out on his work since he has moved into the starting rotation. He seems to be one players that tends to go a round or two later in drafts than what his ADP is. I think Beckett bounces back this season and best of all you can get him a couple of rounds later than this even.

Tier 5:

Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Nolasco, Ted Lilly, Brett Anderson, Ricky Romero, Trevor Cahill, John Lackey, Brandon Morrow, Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Javier Vazquez

Only player I will avoid in this group is Cahill. I think he had some luck last year and doesn’t strike out enough guys to keep his ratios that low again. I think he is a decent pitcher, just not worth as high as he is going in fantasy drafts. Vazquez is on the fence for me in the group. The move to the National League should help, but reports of fluctuating velocity in spring is not great news after his fastball seemed to have less life last season.

Tier 6:

Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Johnny Cueto, C.J. Wilson, Jaime Garcia, Jhoulys Chacin, Scott Baker,  Ervin Santana, Jorge De La Rosa, Edwin Jackson

Tier 7:

Travis Wood, Mike Minor, Jair Jurrjens, Jordan Zimmermann, Brian Matusz, Jonathan Niese

By this point of the draft, we are about 70 pitchers in, which is 5-6 starters per team in a 12 team league or 4-5 starters per team in a 15 team league. After this, it is a crapshoot for how you want to fill out the rest of the rotation, whether you need ratio guys, guys to get you strikeouts, or pitchers that have good /bad home and road splits that you want to rotate several pitchers in at the end of your rotation.

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball projections, be sure to grab your copy of the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Outfielders

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 10th, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

There are several directions you can go when making fantasy baseball tiers for outfielders, some people will just lump all of the outfielders together. I try to come up with two groups, one for outfielders and one for outfielders just with speed. These would be guys with less than 10 home runs and more than 20 stolen bases. At some point in the draft you are going to be looking for stolen bases and it is easy if you have a separate list to track the speed guys by themselves rather than trying to pick them out of a large group where they might get missed.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for outfielders.

Tier 1:

Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday

I was debating on putting Matt Kemp in this tier, but with the inconsistency he showed last year, I think it is hard to put a guy that is not 100% solid in a Tier 1. Hamilton is a little iffy for me in this group based on his health issues in the past, but when he is on the field, the consistency is there in his performance.

Tier 2:

Matt Kemp, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, Alex Rios, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, Hunter Pence, B.J. Upton, Ichiro Suzuki

There are several players with the ability to finish the season in Tier 1 in this group depending on how things fall this year. If Kemp has his head on straight, he has 30-30 potential with the ability to hit .290. If Nelson Cruz ever stays healthy enough to get 550 at bats in a season, he is going to put up some monster numbers. Some people are pegging McCutchen as this season’s Carlos Gonzalez, but I just don’t think he has that type of power.

Tier 3:

Jay Bruce, Shane Victorino, Vernon Wells, Corey Hart, Delmon Young, Torii Hunter, Colby Rasmus, Chris Young, Mike Stanton, Nick Markakis, Juan Pierre, Drew Stubbs

Quite a few of the people in this group are players that had bounce back seasons last year such as Vernon Wells, Corey Hart and Chris Young, so you know what their ceilings are. The guys with some upside in this group is Colby Rasmus and Delmon Young. Markakis is a borderline Tier 3 with declining stats the last few seasons.

Tier 4:

Bobby Abreu, Manny Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Carlos Quentin, Adam Jones, Nick Swisher, Jason Bay, Rajai Davis, Carlos Lee, Angel Pagan, Brett Gardner, Jason Kubel, Michael Bourn.

This group is a combination of speed guys, R. Davis, Bourn, Gardner and Pagan and aging veterans trying to hold on for another year in Abreu, Manny and Bay coming back from injury. Davis is intriguing to see if he catches the power bug that infected many Blue Jay hitters in 2010 and if hitting coach Dwayne Murphy can get him to hit 10-12 home runs, he has a bit more value than when he hits three to five. Quentin has been plagued by injuries but has the ability to hit 35-40 home runs if he can remain healthy in 2011.

Tier 5:

Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Dexter Fowler, Andres Torres, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Ludwick, Marlon Byrd, Nate McLouth, Johnny Damon, Coco Crisp.

Tier 6:

Tyler Colvin, J.D. Drew, Franklin Gutierrez, Garrett Jones, Josh Willingham, Logan Morrison, Seth Smith, Travis Snider, Chris Coghlan, Will Venable, Jonny Gomes.

Tier 7:

Peter Bourjos, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez, Julio Borbon, Michael Brantley, Brad Hawpe, Ben Francisco, Alex Gordon, David DeJesus.

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball projections, be sure to grab your copy of the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 6th, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

There are about 13 guys that I would be happy to have at third base. After that, the options all kind of seem to run together with no real standouts in terms or power or upside. Keep in mind that there are several players that will earn third base eligibility in the first month of the season such as Chone Figgins and Kevin Youkilis so if you find you miss out on one of the top options, that is another possibility.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for third base.

Tier 1: (round 1-3)

1. Evan Longoria
2. David Wright
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Ryan Zimmerman
5. Jose Bautista

It is hard to imagine that a year ago Bautista was a reserve or free agent pick up depending on the size of the league and now he is in the top tier at third base. For his ranking at 3B, I have him just percentage points behind Zimmerman.

Tier 2: (rounds 4-6)

6. Michael Young
7. Adrian Beltre
8. Mark Reynolds

I don’t have Beltre quite as high as others since I have seen this story from him before following a breakout season in a contract year. Reynolds I probably have higher than most, but his raw power and ability to get double digit steals I think warrant this tier.

Tier 3: (rounds 7-9)

9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Pedro Alvarez
11. Casey McGehee
12. Pablo Sandoval

Sandoval looks to have lost a good deal of weight, is in decent shape and has been hitting so far in spring. McGehee seems to get overlooked with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun on his team.

Tier 4: (rounds 10-16)

13. Ian Stewart
14. Edwin Encarnacion
15. Scott Rolen
16. Chris Johnson
17. Chase Headley

Stewart is somewhere in between Tier 3 and 4 but I don’t usually give a tier to just one player. I think with the many options that Colorado has in the infield, he could lose some at bats, plus he has batting average risk.

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball projections, be sure to grab your copy of the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 5th, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

To me this is a top heavy group where I would be happy with any of the top 11 guys on the list. Even though there are tiers at this position, I think for the players ranked 12 – whatever, there is not a whole lot of difference between them or players with upside so if you don’t end up with one of the to p11 guys, you are better off waiting until the end of the draft to make your selection.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for shortstops.

Tier 1: (round 1)

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Troy Tulowitzki

I have seen some drafts where Tulowitzki has gone ahead of Hanley.

Tier 2: (round 2-3)

3. Jose Reyes
4. Derek Jeter
5. Jimmy Rollins

Reyes is borderline Tier 1 but injury concerns over the last couple of years push him to Tier 2, though the difference between him and the next two guys in the list are more than the difference between him and the two guys ahead of him.

Tier 3: (rounds 5-8)

6. Alexei Ramirez
7. Elvis Andrus
8. Rafael Furcal
9. Stephen Drew

Tier 4: (rounds 10-14)

10. Starlin Castro
11. Ian Desmond
12. Miguel Tejada
13. Jhonny Peralta
14. Asdrubal Cabrera

I  like Desmond the best out of this group, especially if he stays hitting in the number two hole all season.

Tier 5: (rounds 15-20)

15. Marco Scutaro
16. Yunel Escobar
17. Jason Bartlett
18. J.J. Hardy
19. Reid Brignac
20. Erick Aybar
21. Cliff Pennington

If you are looking for stolen bases late in the draft, you have a few options in this group with Bartlett, Aybar and Pennington.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 3rd, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for first base.

Tier 1: (rounds 1-2)

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Joey Votto
4. Adrian Gonzalez
5. Mark Teixeira
6. Ryan Howard
7. Prince Fielder

Based on average draft position, these guys are likely to be gone within the first 20 picks of the draft.

Tier 2: (rounds 2-4)

8. Kevin Youkilis
9. Adam Dunn
10. Justin Morneau
11. Kendry Morales

Injury concerns with Morneau and Morales push them to the end of the second tier. Teams that like power at the corner infield spots could have the option of going Votto – Youkilis with their first two picks and flipping Youkilis over to third base at the end of April.

Tier 3: (rounds 5-7)

12. Paul Konerko
13. Billy Butler

A thin tier here as the remaining players on the board I think are too similar in nature. Konerko is the last guy left to get you 30+ home runs outside of Carlos Pena at this point of the draft.

Tier 4: (rounds 12-15)

14. Aubrey Huff
15. Carlos Pena
16. Gaby Sanchez
17. Adam LaRoche
18. Derrek Lee
19. Ike Davis

Out of this group, I probably like Sanchez and Davis the best. Pena’s average is too low to carry, Huff is likely in for a decline and Lee has some health risk to him.

Best of the Rest:

There are a few interesting candidates left at the position of first base, such as James Loney, Freddie Freeman, Matt LaPorta and Mitch Moreland. I am intrigued most by Moreland though I think he loses some at bats because of the log jam the Texas Rangers have when all players are healthy.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 2nd, 2011

As you are preparing for your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction, there are several items you can use to help you determine where the value lies at each position and where a drop off can suddenly occur leaving you short at a thin position. We have already looked at the fantasy baseball ADP results for the different positions, now it is time to examine the fantasy baseball tiers for each grouping.

Here is a look at the 2011 fantasy baseball tiers for catchers.

Tier 1: (rounds 1-3)

1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Buster Posey

I would not touch Joe Mauer, injuries and he just goes too high in drafts for me with too little power in return. I would be happy to get Posey at the end of the 3rd round in a 15 team mixed league.

Tier 2: (rounds 7-11)

5. Carlos Santana
6. Kurt Suzuki
7. Geovany Soto
8. Mike Napoli
9. Miguel Montero

Really could rank this group in any order and it would be hard to argue with the results. I would be willing to go a round or two higher for Santana if I knew he was 100% healthy.

Tier 3: (rounds 11-15)

10. Matt Wieters
11. Jorge Posada
12. Miguel Olivo

Tier 4: (rounds 15-20)

13. John Jaso
14. A.J. Pierzynski
15. J.P. Arencibia
16. Yadier Molina
17. Chris Ianetta
18. Chris Snyder
19. Carlos Ruiz
20. John Buck

Jaso should score a ton of runs with the announcement that Tampa Bay will be hitting him at the top of the batting order. Ianetta is the most intriguing out of this group as he could hit 20+ home runs if he gets 400 at bats.

Best of the Rest:

If you are playing in a league where two catchers are required, at this point there are only a couple of guys I might have interest in still, such as Nick Hundley and Jonathan Lucroy. The rest of the players offer very little upside outside of Ryan Doumit if he gets traded and has a chance to start again.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 25th, 2010

In a fantasy baseball draft or auction, it is helpful to use average draft position reports along with tiered rankings in order to make sure you get a player you want from each group before there is a statistical drop off.

Here is a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for third base.

Tier 1:  rounds 1-2

1.  Alex Rodriguez
2.  Evan Longoria
3.  David Wright
4.  Mark Reynolds

Tier 2:  rounds 3-4

5.  Ryan Zimmerman
6.  Pablo Sandoval
7.  Aramis Ramirez

Tier 3:  rounds 5-7

8.  Chone Figgins
9.  Michael Young
10.  Gordon Beckham

Tier 4:  rounds 9-11

11.  Ian Stewart
12.  Jorge Cantu
13.  Chipper Jones
14.  Adrian Beltre

Tier 5:  rounds 15-20

15.  Kevin Kouzmanoff
16.  Mark DeRosa
17.  Casey McGehee
18.  Alex Gordon
19.  Casey Blake
20.  Jhonny Peralta
21.  Chase Headley
22. Edwin Encarnacion
23.  Troy Glaus

Tier 6:  bottom of the barrel

24.  Brandon Wood
25.  David Freese
26.  Scott Rolen
27.  Jose Bautista
28.  Garrett Atkins

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 25th, 2010

In a fantasy baseball draft or auction, it is helpful to use average draft position reports along with tiered rankings in order to make sure you get a player you want from each group before there is a statistical drop off.

Here is a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for shortstop.

Tier 1:  rounds 1-3

1.  Hanley Ramirez
2.  Jimmy Rollins
3.  Troy Tulowitzki
4.  Jose Reyes
5.  Derek Jeter

Tier 2:  rounds 7-8

6.  Jason Bartlett
7.  Alexei Ramirez
8.   Elvis Andrus

Tier 3:  rounds 10-15

9.  Miguel Tejada
10. Yunel Escobar
11.  Asdrubal Cabrera
12.  Erick Aybar
13.  Stephen Drew
14.  Alcides Escobar
15.  Everth Cabrera
16.  Rafael Furcal

Tier 4:  rounds 16-20

17.  J.J. Hardy
18.  Marco Scutaro
19.  Orlando Cabrera
20.  Ryan Theriot

Tier 5:  bottom of the barrel

21.  Cliff Pennington
22.  Ian Desmond
23.  Julio Lugo
24.  Edgar Renteria

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 25th, 2010

In a fantasy baseball draft or auction, it is helpful to use average draft position reports along with tiered rankings in order to make sure you get a player you want from each group before there is a statistical drop off.

Here is a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for second base.

Tier 1:  rounds 1-2

1.  Chase Utley
2.  Ian Kinsler
3.  Brandon Phillips
4.  Dustin Pedroia

Tier 2: rounds 3-4

5.  Brian Roberts
6.  Robinson Cano
7.   Ben Zobrist
8.   Aaron Hill

Tier 3:  rounds 7-8

9. Dan Uggla
10. Jose Lopez
11. Howie Kendrick

Tier 4:  rounds 12-15

12.  Rickie Weeks
13.  Kelly Johnson
14.  Placido Polanco
15.  Martin Prado

Tier 5:  rounds 17-23

16.  Clint Barmes
17.  Scott Sizemore
18.  Orlando Hudson
19.  Mark Ellis
20.  Luis Valbuena
21.  Kasuo Matsui
22.  Luis Castillo
23. Akinori Iwamura
24. Alberto Callaspo
25. Adam Kennedy

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 24th, 2010

In a fantasy baseball draft or auction, it is helpful to use average draft position reports along with tiered rankings in order to make sure you get a player you want from each group before there is a statistical drop off.

Here is a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for first base.

Tier 1:  rounds 1-2

1.  Albert Pujols
2.  Ryan Howard
3.  Mark Teixeira
4.  Prince Fielder
5.  Miguel Cabrera

Tier 2: rounds 3-4

6.   Kevin Youkilis
7.   Justin Morneau
8.   Joey Votto
9.   Adrian Gonzalez
10. Kendry Morales

Tier 3:  rounds 5-6

11. Lance Berkan
12. Derrek Lee
13. Billy Butler
14. Carlos Pena

Tier 4:  rounds 10-14

15. James Loney
16.  Adam LaRoche
17.  Paul Konerko
18.  Chris Davis
19.  Todd Helton

Tier 5:  bottom of the barrel time

20.  Aubrey Huff
21.  Nick Johnson
22.  Daniel Murphy
23.  Hank Blalock
24.  Lyle Overbay
25.  Casey Kotchman
26.  Gaby Sanchez

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 23rd, 2010

In a fantasy baseball draft or auction, it is helpful to use average draft position reports along with tiered rankings in order to make sure you get a player you want from each group before there is a statistical drop off.

Here is a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for catchers.

Tier 1:  rounds 1-2

1.  Joe Mauer
2.  Victor Martinez

Tier 2:  rounds 3-5

3.  Brian McCann
4.  Matt Wieters

Tier 3:  rounds 9-12

5.  Jorge Posada
6.  Kurt Suzuki
7.  Miguel Montero
8.  Geovany Soto
9.  Russell Martin
10. Mike Napoli
11. Bengie Molina
12. Ryan Doumit

Tier 4:  rounds 13-15

13.  A.J. Pierzynski
14.  Chris Ianetta
15.  Yadier Molina

Tier 5:  rounds 16-18

16.  John Baker
17.  Carlos Ruiz

Tier 6:  bottom of the barrel time

18.  Rod Barajas
19.  John Buck
20.  Kelly Shoppach
21.  Ramon Hernandez
22.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia
23.  Gregg Zaun
24.  Gerald Laird
25.  Nick Hundley
26. Miguel Olivo
27. Buster Posey
28. Ivan Rodriguez
29. Jason Kendall
30. Taylor Teagarden

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Tiers – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2010

With recent news of injuries cropping up in the land of fantasy baseball closers, I thought it was time to revisit the list of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for closers from last month.

The injury to Joe Nathan plus news that Huston Street will most likely start the season on the disabled list means that two of the top 10 closers are going to be knocked down or off your draft list.

This could mean that closers go a round or two earlier than you might expect in your draft as owners try to get one of the few solid options available to them.

Here is a look at my current 2010 fantasy baseball tiers for closers based on the latest information:

Tier 1:  rock solid

1.  Jonathan Broxton
2.  Jonathan Papelbon
3.  Mariano Rivera
4.  Joakim Soria

Tier 2:  pretty solid

5.  Francisco Rodriguez
6.  Andrew Bailey
7.  Heath Bell
8.  Jose Valverde
9.  Brian Wilson
10. Francisco Cordero

Tier 3:  some injury risk in this tier

11.  Billy Wagner
12.  Rafael Soriano
13.  Brian Fuentes
14.  Trevor Hoffman
15.  Huston Street

Tier 4:  unproven after one season of closing

16.  Frank Francisco
17.  Mike Gonzalez
18.  Chad Qualls
19.  David Aardsma
20. Carlos Marmol

Tier 5:  which player from this group loses his job first?

21.  Bobby Jenks
22.  Ryan Franklin
23.  Kerry Wood
24.  Brad Lidge
25.  Leo Nunez

Tier 6:  bottom of the barrel time

26.  Matt Capps
27.  Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier
28.  Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs
29.  Matt Lindstrom, Brandon Lyon
30.  Octavio Dotel

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Minor League Report – week 12

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

After reviewing the top pitchers in the week 11 minor league report, here is a look at some of the top hitters in the top two minor league levels that will be participating in the Futures Game in St. Louis on July 12. In case you might be wondering why one of your favorite minor league players is not in the game, each major league team has to have at least one player on the roster and no team can have more than two.

Catcher – Jason Castro (Astros) – Castro was the 10th overall pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft. He was promoted to Double-A a little more than two weeks ago, and is hitting .288  in 59 at bats. His overall numbers are .305, with eight home runs, 48 RBI and one stolen base. Fantasy baseball owners might be gun shy of Castro because the failures of the Astros previous rookie catcher J.R. Towles. Baseball America had Castro as the Astros number one prospect coming into this season and he has held his own so far in 2009. It will be interesting to see five years from now how he stacks up against the catcher that went earlier in the draft, Buster Posey, who is in the San Francisco Giants farm system.

Catcher – Tyler Flowers (White Sox) – Flowers has been in Double-A the entire season so far, and is hitting .278 with 11 home runs and 39 RBI. He threw out 28% of runners trying to steal in 2008, made 12 errors and allowed 11 passed balls. With A.J. Pierzynski signed through 2010, if Flowers continues to progress, he should be ready to take over as starting catcher in 2011.

First Base – Chris Carter (Athletics) – With the lack of offense at the major league level, it is a little surprising to see Carter still in Double-A. Carter is currently hitting .299 with 13 home runs, 59 RBI and eight stolen bases on the season. He has upped his power numbers each month, hitting one home run in April, five in May and seven in June. Carter, 22, was part of the big bounty the Oakland Athletics received from the Arizona Diamondbacks when they traded Dan Haren.

Second Base – Scott Sizemore (Tigers) – Sizemore was promoted to Triple-A two weeks ago. He is currently hitting .250 in 52 at bats. For the season, he is batting .296 with 10 home runs, 36 RBI and eight stolen bases. He was  a fifth round pick back in 2006 out of Virginia Commonwealth University and was ranked seventh by Baseball America coming into the 2009 season. He started off his minor league career as a shortstop before moving to second base in 2007.

Second Base – Eric O. Young (Rockies) – Young has been at Triple-A the entire season with an eye on a starting job in 2010. Much like his father and former Rockies player Eric Young,  his one plus attribute is his speed. Young is hitting .286 through 70 games with three home runs, 21 RBI and 44 stolen bases against eight times caught stealing.

Third Base – Pedro Alvarez (Pirates) – Alvarez was promoted to Double-A one week ago and has started off slowly, hitting .125 with 10 strikeouts in 25 at bats. In High Class A, he showed an ability to drive in runs despite a high strikeout rate. In 243 at bats, he hit .247 with 14 home runs, 55 RBI and 70 strikeouts. The talk of him being the first person from the 2008 draft class to make it to the major leagues seems like a stretch with his current plate discipline.

Third Base – Brett Wallace (Cardinals) – Wallace was the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft and has split this season between Double-A and Triple-A. He started off Triple-A slow, but has picked up his performance recently, hitting .395 in his last 10 games with two home runs. On the season, he is hitting .280 with nine home runs and 27 RBI. The recent addition of Mark DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals means Wallace will likely stay in Triple-A until rosters expand September 1 and then compete for the starting job in 2010.

Outfield – Chris Heisey (Reds) – He finally got promoted to Triple-A on Friday after destroying Double-A. Although he was old for the level at 24, he hit .347 with 13 home runs, 40 RBI and 13 steals. Heisey has gone from a 17th round unknown back in 2006 to an underrated prospect in the Reds organization coming into 2009 to now a potential starter in 2010.

Outfield – Desmond Jennings (Rays) – He looked to be on the fast track to Triple-A until he slowed down considerably in June. He still has solid numbers for the season, with a .325 average, six home runs, 35 RBI and 28 stolen bases. After hitting .349 in April and .368 in May, Jennings is hitting .255 in June with zero home runs and six RBI. Jennings was ranked #5 by Baseball America for 2009 in the Rays minor league system. He missed the first two months of the 2008 season with a back injury, then played 24 games before injuring his left shoulder and undergoing season-ending surgery.

Outfield – Mike Stanton (Marlins) – Stanton has gotten off to a slow start at Double-A after being promoted three weeks ago. His plate discipline has deteriorated slightly as expected with the move up a level. Stanton is hitting .234 with three home runs and nine RBI, with 24 strikeouts in 77 at bats at Double-A. Overall he is batting .276 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI between two levels.

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Saturday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 30th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

If you read the minor league report earlier in the day, it looks like the winner is Antonio Bastardo for the Philadelphia Phillies. Bastardo will get the start on Tuesday against the San Diego Padres in place of the injured Brett Myers.

The Texas Rangers used 17 hits en route to a 14-1 pounding of the Oakland Athletics. Hank Blalock (12), Marlon Byrd (4) and Nelson Cruz (14) all went deep for the Rangers.  Ian Kinsler added four RBI as all starters had at least one hit and one RBI except for Andruw Jones who went 0 for 5. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Saturday…

Hitters:

Armando Rios went 4 for 4 with two RBI and Adam Lind went 2 for 3 with two RBI including his 8th home run of the season in a 5-3 win over the Boston Red Sox.  It was the first home run for Lind since May 17th, from  which he has seen a 30 point drop in his batting average to its current level of .289.

Jeremy Hermida went 3 for 5 with four RBI including his 5th home run of the year to power the Florida Marlins to a 7-3 win over the New York Mets.

Reed Johnson went 3 for 3 with two RBI and his third home run of the season. Johnson has homered three times in the last six games.

Carl Crawford went 3 for 4 with two RBI and collected his third home run of the season in a 5-2 win over the Minnesota Twins. The only negative for Crawford was he was caught stealing for the first time this season, ending his run of 30 consecutive steals this year.

Clete Thomas hitting lead off went 3 for 5 with three RBI and two home runs to lead the Detroit Tigers to a 6-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Curtis Granderson chipped in with his 12th home run of the year. Luke Scott continues to put on an offensive show for the Orioles, hitting a home run for the fourth consecutive day and driving in two runs. Rookie Matt Wieters went 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored.

Prince Fielder went 3 for 4 with three RBI and clubbed his 12th home run of the year to lift the Milwaukee Brewers to a 9-5 win over the Cincinnati Reds.

Ryan Howard blasted two home runs and drove in five in a 9-6 win over the Washington Nationals.

Brad Hawpe went 3 for 5 with three RBI and poked his seventh home run of the season. Hawpe raised his batting average to .343 and he now has 39 RBI on the year.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 19th home run of the season and drove in three runs. For Gonzalez, it was the third home run this week with seven RBI.

Albert Pujols hit two home runs giving him 16 on the season to go along with 42 RBI to lead the St. Louis Cardinals to a 6-2 win over the San Francisco Giants.

Joey Votto was placed on the 15-day disabled list by the Cincinnati Reds in what the team is calling a “stress-related issue.”

Pitchers:

Josh Johnson allowed two runs in seven innings with five strikeouts to earn his fourth win of the season. Johnson has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts.

David Price picked up his first win of the season, allowing one run in 5 2/3 innings with 11 strikeouts. Price was pulled after 108 pitches, 76 of which he threw for strikes.

Ryan Dempster tossed seven shutout innings with five strikeouts to improve his record to 4-3 on the year in a 7-0 defeat of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

CC Sabathia allowed three runs in seven innings and struck out eight to raise his record to 5-3 on the year.

Javier Vazquez and Doug Davis hooked up in a pitchers duel, that the Arizona Diamondbacks won 3-2 in 11 innings. Vazquez allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts. Davis allowed two runs in seven innings with six strikeouts. Davis continues to pitch much better when at home where he holds a 3.20 ERA compared to a 4.82 ERA on the road.

Jeff Karstens allowed two runs in seven innings with four strikeouts to even his record at 2-2.

Brandon McCarthy allowed one run in six innings with two strikeouts. It was the second good outing in a row for McCarthy who has shaved 1.25 runs off of his ERA in those two starts.

Matt Palmer tossed seven shutout innings with five strikeouts in a no decision against the Seattle Mariners. His counterpart Felix Hernandez was equally effective, hurling 6 1/3 shutout innings with six strikeouts.

Closers:

Leo Nunez picked up his first save of the season by replacing an ineffective Matt Lindstrom with two outs in the ninth inning. Lindstrom allowed one run and left runners on second and third for Nunez who struck out Fernando Martinez to end the game.

Randy Choate picked up his second save of the season since being recalled from Triple-A earlier in the week.

Heath Bell blew his first save of the season in an 8-7 loss to the Colorado Rockies.

Brian Fuentes blew his third save of the season, surrendering a three-run home run to Jose Lopez in the 9th inning, costing Matt Palmer a win.

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Tuesday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 5th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Rick Porcello picked up his second win of the season for the Detroit Tigers in a 9-0 victory over the Minnesota Twins. His season so far has been a typical rookie season, especially for someone pitching in the major leagues as the age of 20. Porcello tossed seven shutout innings with three strikeouts. Curtis Granderson blasted his 9th home run of the season. With Granderson displaying a power stroke early on in the season, he has been dropped down to 5th in the batting order. Miguel Cabrera hit his seventh home run of the season and is now batting .406 on the year. The Tigers placed Carlos Guillen on the 15-day disabled list with inflammation in his shoulder. Jeff Larish and Clete Thomas have been recalled from Triple-A and could see time in Guillen’s place. In other fantasy baseball news around the diamond on Tuesday…

American League:

Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Carl Crawford stole his 19th base of the season, and has now stolen a base in eight straight games, in a 6-3 defeat of the Baltimore Orioles. Evan Longoria went 2 for 4 with 3 RBI and now has 34 RBI on the season. The decision for the Orioles to go with Gregg Zaun at catcher over prospect Matt Wieters has not been the right move early on this season. Zaun hit his first home run of the season Tuesday, and is hitting just .162 for the year. Koji Uehara allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings for the Orioles and struck out eight…..The Texas Rangers scored 6 runs in the top of the 10th inning to beat the Seattle Mariners 7-2. Nelson Cruz hit his seventh home run of the year for the Rangers and Jarrod Saltalamacchia added his third to go along with 4 RBI. Vincente Padilla allowed one hit through eight innings and one unearned run with four strikeouts. Erik Bedard pitched well for the Mariners, allowing one run in seven innings with seven strikeouts…..Adam Lind went 3 for 4 with 5 RBI to power the Toronto Blue Jays to a 10-6 win over the Cleveland Indians. Lind hit is sixth home run of the year and is now up to 29 RBI. Ben Francisco stole his fourth base of the year for the Indians. Rookie call up Brett Cecil pitched much better than he had been in Triple-A, allowing one run in six innings with six strikeouts for the Blue Jays…..Jason Bay hit his seventh home run of the season to lead the Boston Red Sox to a 7-3 win over the New York Yankees. Jacob Ellsbury stole base number 15 on the year. Joba Chamberlain suffered the loss, allowing four runs in 5 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. Johnny Damon hit his 6th home run and drove in three runs. Jorge Posada was placed on the 15-day disabled list by the New York Yankees with a hamstring strain. He is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.

National League:

The Houston Astros and Washington Nationals played to a 10-10 tie before play was suspended in the 11th inning due to rain. The game will be resumed on July 9th. Miguel Tejada went 3 for 6 with 3 RBI for the Astros. Elijah Dukes (4) and Christian Guzman (1) each homered for the Nationals. Nationals Manager Manny Acta said Joe Beimel who is coming off the disabled list will get a shot to claim the closers role…..Tim Lincecum allowed two runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts to pitch the San Francisco Giants past the Chicago Cubs 6-2. Bengie Molina hit his 5th home run of the season and drove in three runs. Emmanuel Burriss added his eighth stolen base of the year. Aaron Miles stole two bases for the Chicago Cubs geting the start in place of Ryan Theriot. Randy Wells will be promoted from Triple-A to start in place of Carlos Zambrano (out three weeks) on Friday against the Milwaukee Brewers….Edison Volquez hurled eight shutout innings, allowing three hits with seven strikeouts in a 7-0 win over the Florida Marlins. Brandon Phillips went 3 for 5 with 6 RBI, including his fourth home run of the season…..J.J. Hardy went 3 for 3 with 4 RBI to lead the Milwaukee Brewers to an 8-5 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Corey Hart went 2 for 4 with three runs scored and his third stolen base of the year. Pirates closer Matt Capps will be shelved until at least the weekend with discomfort in his elbow. Tyler Yates and John Grabow could see save opportunities in his absence…..Shane Victorino went 4 for 5 with 3 RBI and three runs scored to propel the Philadelphia Phillies to a 10-7 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Jason Werth added his 4th home run of the season and 4 RBI. Ryan Ludwick hit his 7th home run of the year for the Cardinals and Albert Pujols added his 10th.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 26th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball catchers.

Tier 1 – Russ Martin, Brian McCann

Tier 2 – Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez

Tier 3 – Ryan Doumit, Chris Ianetta, Bengie Molina

Tier 4 – Jorge Posada, A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez

Tier 5 – Kelly Shoppach, Ivan Rodriguez, Chris Snyder, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli

Tier 6 – John Baker, Miguel Olivo, Brandon Igne

Tier 7 – Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, George Laird, Yadier Molina, Jesus Flores, Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas, Brian Schneider

Martin and McCann are going two picks apart according to their average draft position (ADP). However, I would opt for Martin over McCann every time with the bonus of 20 steals coming from the catcher position. Martin’s power might fluctuate more from year-to-year in the 13-20 home run range, while McCann has 20-25 home run power, the steals more than make up for the difference since the other categories of batting average, runs and rbi are close.

Soto is close to the first tier, but I would like to see his put up the same stats for a second year in a row before I bump him up to that group. The power potential he had exhibited in 2007 in the minor leagues carried over last season as he clubbed the same number of home runs as McCann did. Throw the last season out the window for Victor Martinez as he battled injuries that reduced his power. He has already hit three home runs this spring, which is more that what he hit last season in 266 at bats. Expect a return to numbers that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Doumit’s power numbers in 2008 were pretty much in line with what he had done the two previous seasons, when you look at the at bat totals. The .319 average might have been a little over his head. His career minor league minor league average was .296, and I see him more in the .285-.300 range annually. Iannetta offers a little more power than Doumit, but a lower batting average, even taking into account Ianetta plays his home games at Coors field. Bengie Molina always seems to be underrated. He is old and plays for the San Francisco Giants who have a somewhat weak offense, but that benefits Molina who hit cleanup and has driven in 80+ runs each of the last two seasons. The only downside is his runs scored which  has been below 46 the last two years with the Giants.

Posada comes off of shoulder surgery in 2008 that limited him to only 168 at bats. So far this spring, he seems in line to be ready to play on Opening Day. He might be limited to around 400-450 at bats, which puts him at around 13-15 home runs, with 55 runs scored and 65 rbi. Pierzynski, or AJP for ease of typing purposes is solid every season. You know what you are going to get with him, an average around .280 with 14 home runs, 60 rbi and 60 runs scored. Ramon Hernandez moves to the the National League this season and should be able to put up similar stats to AJP but with a batting average in the .255-.265 range.

Shoppach has some thunder in his bat, but the question is how many at bats is he going to get this season. I am pegging him for around 400 which gives him the possibility to hit 15-20 home runs. He has already hit four home runs this spring. Rodriguez heads to the National League after recently signing with the Houston Astros. It looks like from his first few games with the Astros that he might be hitting second in the batting order. I see Rodriguez putting up a stat line of .270 with 70 runs, 12 home runs, 65 rbi and 8 stolen bases. Chris Snyder offers 15 home run power with a some batting average downside. He seemed to get more hack happy last season as he struck out 34 more time in only eight more at bats than the previous year. Wieters has already been told he is being sent down to the minors, but he should be back in the major leagues by May. Of course, this is the Baltimore Orioles we a re talking about so even that might not be a certainty. He is hitting .343 this spring with more walks than strikeouts (4/3) which is always nice to see from a young hitter. Napoli is recovering from shoulder surgery and there is a chance that he might start the season on the disabled yes. He has 20 home run potential, but because he has never had more than 269 at bats in the previous three seasons, his runs scored and rbi remain low.

Baker was part of the Oakland A’s draft made famous by the book “Moneyball”. Now in his first year as a starting major league catcher, he has a chance to put up some decent numbers for the Florida Marlins. It looks like Baker will be hitting second this season. Expect a year around .280-70-11-60. Miquel Olivo was promised the starting catcher by the Kansas City Royals back in November and so far the coach speak has them sticking with the plan. Even with Olivo as the starter, John Buck will still start possibly 2-3 games per week. Olivo has the power to hit 15 home runs so if he can start off the season hot, he will keep Buck relegated to bench duty. Inge should see a return to 500 at bats this season as a starter once again. That may be a bad thing if you have him on your fantasy roster as the more at bats does more damage to your team batting average. He has the ability to put up some decent numbers, to the tune of 15 home runs and 70 rbi, but you better have a lot of .300 hitters on your team to carry his sub .230 average.

Tier 7 I have in no real order. Best I can say is put all of the names in the hat, pull one out and hope you get Yahtzee. You only would have to worry about a tier 7 in leagues that require you to draft two catchers. If you do, make sure you don’t get sutck with one of them. There is no reason to end up with two weak catchers or even one weak catcher even in a 14 or 15 team league. Don’t let the catcher spot on your roster put you at a disadvantage against the other owners in your league.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 23rd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball third basemen.

Tier 1 – David Wright

Tier 2 – Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez,

Tier 3 – Chipper Jones

Tier 4 – Garrett Atkins, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Guillen

Tier 5 – Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Aubrey Huff, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Tier 6 – Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Chone Figgins

Tier 7 – Joe Crede, Josh Fields, Bill Hall, Scott Rolen, Ian Stewart

I currently have Wright ranked number three overall. His stolen bases could take a hit with Jerry Manuel the manager now for the entire season, but he is outstanding in every category.

Evan Longoria I have as the second best third basemen. He put up the same number of home runs as Aramis Ramirez in 100 less at bats last season. In another year, Longoria will be battling David Wright and A-Rod for the  number one ranking at 3b.

Alex Rodriguez looks like he will miss roughly 25-30 games which puts him just at the end of round two in 15 team league drafts. He still should end up around30 home runs, 90 rbi and 15 steals.

Chipper Jones has a tier all to himself.  His current ADP puts him at 54, or the end of the fourth round. If you select him, make sure you take a quality backup later in the draft knowing Jones will miss at least 20-30 games during the season. The .320+ average makes him worth the pick.

I wanted to put Atkins in Tier 3, but with numbers that have fallen two years in a row and Ian Stewart lurking to steal some at bats, plus the potential for a trade out of Colorado he becomes Tier 4. Cantu’s season was not that much of a breakout last year except for batting average. His numbers in 2006 showed the potential for 25+ home runs if he could get the at bats. He also adds flexibility to your roster by qualifying at 1b. I love the fact that fantasy people owners discount players coming off of injuries or down years like there is no such thing as a bounce back. I like Guillen in Tier 4 and best of all you can probably get him later in the draft as he has been going behind 7 other third basemen I have not even listed yet. Qualifies at 3b, 1B and will qualify at OF in week four. Is a solid .300 hitter and with the potential to steal 10-15 bases plus hit 20 home runs makes him undervalued in drafts for this year.

Tier 5, I threw a bunch of people together. Their stats are all kind of similar. I like Beltre a little bit more for the bonus steals he can provide. Zimmerman could be a nice pick if he can recover his power after his injuries last season. Huff is due for regression after doubling his home run total from 2007. Encarnacion seems to have promise but has yet to fulfill it yet. Reynolds’ stats look like Ryan Howard lite with the strikeouts and low batting average. Kouzmanoff plays in the vast wasteland that is Petco Park and is surrounded by the weakest lineup in baseball.

Tier 6, I don’t think that Melvin Mora has discovered the fountain of youth in his late thirties so expect a drop off in performance in 2009. Alex Gordon is still trying to live up to the hype generated several years ago. He is always drafted way too early in fantasy drafts as people expect his breakout season to come one of these years. Figgins was a third or fourth round pick a few years ago, but a few hamstring injuries later and his stats seem Ryan Theriot like, which is okay, but not for a corner infielder.

This might be the last season for Josh Fields to prove that he belongs in the major leaues with Dayan Viciedo pushing him. Don’t waste a pick on Bill Hall, Matt Gamel will be up for the Milwaukee Brewers at some point this season if he can improve his fielding.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball second basemen.

Tier 1 – Chase Utley

Tier 2 – Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips

Tier 3 – Alexei Ramirez, Dan Uggla

Tier 4 – Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Lopez

Tier 5 – Kaz Matsui, Rickie Weeks, Luis Castillo

Tier 6 – Howie Kendrick, Alexi Casilla, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson,  Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes

Tier 7 – Akinroi Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Jeff Baker, Chris Getz

Utley looks to be on track for opening day so I have him still rated as the only tier 1 player. It is interesting to see how many players have fallen out of the top 15 players in just the last two years that Kinsler and / or Pedroia are now going in the first round in some drafts.

Tier 2 represents all second round picks in a 15 team league. I like Kinsler for his power / speed combination. If he ever gets a full healthy season of 600+ at bats, he is looking at a potential 25 home run 30 steal season. I have Roberts next ahead of Pedroia. I have written in previous articles how I think Pedroia’s stats will see some regression this year. Roberts is consistently in the 10 home run, 55 rbi 40 steal range and I like the steals more that banking on Pedroia having a repeat performance of 2008. I have Pedroia ranked ahead of Phillips, giving the edge to Pedroia in runs scored and batting average, the edge to Phillips in home runs and stolen bases. I don’t want to sacrifice average the first five rounds of the draft so I would take Pedroia over Phillips if presented with the choice.

Alexei Ramirez has been going toward the end of the third round in most mock drafts. He will offer the added flexibility of being eligible at shortstop in the fourth week of the season assuming your league has the standard 20 games played rule to qualify at a position. Uggla’s current ADP is 63, which slots him at the end of round 4 / start of round 5. He homered, walked or struck out in 45% of his plate appearances in 2008.

At this point, most fantasy baseball owners draft sheets will vary quite a bit. I like Kelly Johnson next ahead of Cano. I think Cano is one of the more overrated fantasy baseball players. He always seems to get drafted 3-4 rounds earlier than he should. Possibly because he plays for the Yankees, or the fact that he hit .342 in 2006. Johnson I grade ahead of Cano because of the extra 5-10 bases he will swipe. DeRosa and Lopez I have grouped together next with DeRosa getting the edge for more consistency in batting average and to hedge against Lopez not being able to duplicate his stats at home from last season.

Tier 5, time to throw a dart at the board, as all of the players have speed, but also carry injury risk. Matsui has had over 400 at bats only once in the past four years so to say he is an injury risk is a bit of an understatement. He is currently penciled in as the Astros lead off hitter. A healthy 2009 could see Matsui with a line of 5 hr 50 rbi and 30 steals. Weeks has put up similar stats the last two years but his .240 average is a killer. At this point of the draft, Castillo is the last second basemen with the ability to steal 20+ bases, outside of possibly Felipe Lopez. Castillo seems to be healthy in spring and could steal 30 for the New York Mets this year.

Tier 6 is a jumbled mass of bodies. Kendrick like Cano is way overrated as well. He has never been healthy for a full season and even combining his 2006-2007 numbers which would have put him at 600 at bats, gives him 9 hr 69 rbi and 11 steals with close to a .300 average, looks a lot like what I expect from Alexi Casilla this season. Lopez could have a chance for a few more stolen bases if he improves his rate of 50% from last season (8 steals in 16 attempts). Hudson, Polanco, Sanchez, Fontenot, Barmes all offer similar stats in the 1o home run-60 rbi-10 stolen base range. Barmes also qualifies at shortstop.

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