by Todd Lammi
We have focused quite a few articles on ADP (average draft position) recently so now I want to tie that into another fantasy baseball tool which is the tiered system for player rankings.
A lot of the magazines or web sites for fantasy baseball have cheat sheets, but it is mostly a ranking by position of one to whatever number. While it is good to know the order of what player you would draft before another on your sheet, most of the time you don’t have an idea of what the difference is between the two players.
That’s where having a tiered system to your draft sheet comes in handy, so you have an idea of what round you can take a particular player in, or if you can wait several rounds and get the same type of stats. It will also help prepare you so you are not left out if there is a run on a particular position.
If you combine a tiered system to drafting, along with doing your own mock draft based on your draft slot and using ADP, you will be able to improve your draft performances. Let’s take a look at first base and how a tiered system would apply.
First Base:
Tier 1 – Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera
Tier 2 – Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira, Lance Berkman
Tier 3 – Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez
Tier 4 – Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, Derek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Chris Davis
Tier 5 – Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Jason Giambi, Mike Jacobs, Adam LaRoche
Tier 6 – James Loney, Casey Kotchman, Pablo Sandoval, Todd Helton
Tier 7 – Ryan Garko, Nick Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Chad Tracy
Pujols and Cabrera are the top two players at first base so they get the Tier 1 ranking. In 2007, check the numbers, they had almost identical seasons with Cabrera’s slightly better. In 2008, home runs were the same, rbi went to Cabrera, runs to Pujols, but the big difference was the 60 point difference in batting average. Pujols was 30 points higher than the year before and Cabrera was roughly 30 points lower than the year before. Tier 2, Howard for his huge power numbers, although his average costs you anywhere from 2-3 points (from a team average of .283 to .280) by rostering him instead of a Texeira or Berkman. Texeira and Berkman round out the second tier because they are both .300 average, 30 plus home runs and 100+ runs and rbi, with Berkman getting the additional handful of stolen bases. Tier 3, I have Fielder, who I think is closer to a .280 35 hr 100 rbi hitter, grouped with Mourneau who falls just outside of Berkman and Texeira for inconsistencies in 30 home run power from year to year and Adrian Gonzalez who is 30-100-100 in the .280 average range.
Heading into the draft using the #5 draft slot as an example, assuming a 15 team league and using the ADP from Mock Draft Central, the question is who is your first round pick, assuming Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Jose Reyes are gone. With Alex Rodriguez hurt, pick #5 to me becomes the biggest question mark pick of the first round. You need to be able to have someone close in ability to the top four players already taken, and someone better than the players that are picked 6-15 in the remainder of the round. If you are considering Cabrera with the 5th pick, you need to look at your tier list and the ADP and see what that means. My question if I had that pick is, if I do not take Cabrera in round 1, what are my other options? Based on ADP, there is a chance Fielder slides to your second pick (26 overall) but maybe not. In round three, there is a chance to get Gonzalez with pick 35 overall. If you miss Gonzalez in round 3, who is probably the last sure thing to get at least .280-30-100-100 at first base, it becomes a little bit more of a gamble for stat accuracy (the likelihood that your statistical prediction comes true, based on your definition of true, whether you allow for a 2% variance, 5% variance or whatever the number may be).
I put Kevin Youkilis in Tier 4, I am not sold that he is a 30 home run hitter. Putting him in Tier 4 means I will not be drafting him, because his ADP is 40, which means he would most likely be gone by my pick in round 4, which would be 56 overall, assuming the #5 draft slot. I think to take him that early in the third round would be way too much of a risk. Joey Votto and Derek Lee I have grouped together next in Tier 4, they are both players I see in the .290-25-90-90-8 (sb) range. Chris Davis has 35-40 home run potential, and also the potential to break the strikeout record. He does have the ability to hit for average in the .270 range so I group him with Carlos Delgado, both players I see around .275-35-95-100.
If I have someone from one of the first four tiers, I would be happy at frst base. Anyone after that I would be disappointed. The players in Tiers 1-4 make up 13 players. If it is a 15 team league, that means at least two teams are ending up with players in Tier 5 or below. The possibility is it could be even more if someone takes a first basemen in the Top 4 Tiers and later adds another Top 4 Tier first baseman as a corner infielder. That is why I always chart the draft of other owners by position so I have an idea of how each team is filling in their roster to anticipate who might be going after which position.
Tier 5 I don’t have really grouped in any particular order. By this time you are probably in round 12 or later of your draft and your pick will be made on where you stand in certain categories. Tier 5 represents players that can provide 25+ home runs or more. Tier 6 represents players with the ability to hit 15-20 home runs, but also hit .280 to .300. Tier 7 represents players that could produce some decent stats, but each have question marks surrounding them. For Garko, does he lose at bats to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez? Does Nick Johnson lose at bats due to another injury or to Adam Dunn as Washington tries to rotate one of their 10 outfielders? Ishikawa should be the recepient of the majority of at bats in San Francisco assuming Brian Sabean does not let Rich Aurilia get another 400+ at bats. Tracy could lose at bats depending on the health of Eric Byrnes in Arizona.
