One of the things I look at when I am doing the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers is strikeouts. While I use that category in conjunction with several others, I think to pick one category and have it stand alone by itself, strikeouts are the most important.

The biggest reason is because strikeouts limit the damage to ERA numbers. Once the ball is hit and put in play, the pitcher becomes subjective to too many things out of his control. He has to worry about his defense being able to field the ball, the luck of where the ball is placed when hit, in addition to possibly giving up a home run which factors in the weather for the day as well as the dimensions of the ballpark among other things.

It also limits the ERA in respect to staying out of the big inning. If there is man on third base and as a pitcher you cannot afford to give up a hit anywhere on the diamond, be it fly ball or ground ball, you need to have the stuff to be able to bear down and strike out a hitter when needed.

With that said, here is a listing of the top starting pitchers from 2009 with the highest percentage of swing and miss strikes.

1) Rich Harden – 26%

2) Francisco Liriano – 20%

3) Jorge de la Rosa – 19%

4) Ryan Dempster – 19%

5) Jonathan Sanchez – 19%

6) Javier Vazquez – 19%

7) Chad Billingsley – 18%

8.) Neftali Feliz – 18%

9) Gio Gonzalez – 18%

10) Cole Hamels – 18%

11) Felix Hernandez – 18%

12) Mat Latos – 18%

13) Jon Lester – 18%

14) Tim Lincecum – 18%

15) Bud Norris – 18%

16) CC Sabathia – 18%

17) Justin Verlander – 18%

18) Clay Buchholz – 17%

19) Gavin Floyd – 17%

20) Tommy Hanson – 17%

I included Feliz assuming he will be a starting pitcher this year. Interesting to see a few rookies like Latos and Norris appear. Liriano in second position shows he still has good stuff, just a matter of his confidence improving. Two guys that people are discounting this season according to their fantasy baseball ADP are Hamels and Billingsley who are both on the list so I expect them to bounce back from seasons that were below expectations.

Take note that on Monday, 2/15 I will be releasing the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $9.99. It’s better than any magazine you will find on the stands because the information will be updated weekly up until Opening Day and the data will be in excel format so it will be easy to use. For that low price, you will get:

• Over 450 player projections – easily sortable by league or position. Includes all player ages as of Opening Day.
• All of the player notes that have been posted on the website as a quick cheat sheet to use during your draft.
• Expanded player rankings for all positions.
• A weekly article (that will not appear on the website) in regards to fantasy strategy for winning an auction or draft league.
• An in-depth article on how to use the player projections. Player rankings and projections are great, but if they are not used correctly, you are not getting the most out of them.
• Advice and guidance from someone that has been in the trenches and won leagues before. A lot of people writing articles or doing projections are just that, writers that have not been able to successfully win at fantasy baseball. In the 20 years that I have been playing fantasy baseball, I have won draft and auction leagues in multiple formats and can relate that information to you the reader.

This is the second part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of closers ranked 16-30.

16) Trevor Hoffman – had his lowest ERA since 1998 so you know there is some regression coming. ERA and WHIP ratio aided by his improvement against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .222 average compared to .291 in 2008.

17) Frank Francisco – first season as full-time closer was a success outside of two trips to the disabled list which seemed to impact his second half numbers. Had a 2.28 ERA and .94 WHIP ratio the first half of the season. After the All-Star break, the ERA was 5.82 and the WHIP was 1.34.

18) Mike Gonzalez – had career high in innings pitched last season after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008. No doubt he can get the job done with a career ERA of 2.57 and 1.22 WHIP ratio. Question will always be how many innings does he get in before he gets hurt, with time on the disabled list four of the past five seasons.

19) Chad Qualls – good value based on his current fantasy baseball ADP. Knee ligament tear that ended his season in ‘09 should not affect him in 2010. High ground ball rate plus good control means he should be solid as closer going forward.

20) David Aardsma – solid season on paper but I have some concerns going forward. High fly ball rate of 54% last season yet cut his home run per fly ball rate in half. If that regresses to the mean in 2010, his ERA jumps into the high three’s. Still has issues with command, walking 4.3 hitters per nine innings last year. Career WHIP ratio in the major leagues is 1.49.

21) Carlos Marmol – extremely hard to hit, but his inability to throw strikes makes his job as a closer far from safe. Walk rate jumped to 7.9 per nine innings last season, up from 4.2 in 2008. Like Aarsdma, Marmol is a fly ball pitcher and faces regression in his ERA after allowing only two home runs in 74 innings last year.

22) Bobby Jenks – ERA spiked due to nine home runs allowed after giving up 10 the last three seasons combined. Has been easier to hit the last two years with batting average against of .198 in 2007 rising to .230 in ‘08 and to .250 last year. Questions about him are always going to revolve around his ablity to stay in shape.

23) Ryan Franklin – helped his ERA by allowing only two home runs after giving up 10 in 2008. Luck ran out after the All-Star break when his ERA was 3.33 and WHIP ratio was 1.70. Blew three of six saves in September.

24) Kerry Wood – first season in the American League did not go well for Wood as his home runs allowed more than doubled from the previous season and his control reverted back to 2007 level. Was much better the second half of the season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.32 WHIP ratio.

25) Brad Lidge – two seasons of extremes when looking at 2008 and 2009. Blew 11 saves last season after going a perfect 41 for 41 in 2008. Allowed 11 home runs and batting average against jumped to .301. Had surgery on his elbow in November and on his knee in January so it is questionable whether he will be ready for the start of the season. Possible that his knee injruy that bothered him in April and landed him on the disabled list in June was responsible for some of his issues last season.

26) Matt Capps – another closer who saw his home run total jump in 2010. After allowing five home runs in ‘08, Capps gave up 10 in 2009. Walk rate also increased, allowing 2.8 walks per nine innings after walking only five batters in 53 2/3 innings in 2008. With only a one year contract with the Washington Nationals, there is a good chance that he gets moved at the trade deadline.

27) Leo Nunez – took the closer job away from Matt Lindstrom, but encountered some problems with the long ball, surrendering 13 home runs in 68 2/3 innings. Walk rate increased for the second straight season which offset his improvement in batting average allowed.

The following teams have multiple players in a battle for the closer position. The closer will most likely be determined at some point during spring training.

28) Toronto Blue Jays – Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg

29) Houston Astros – Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom

30) Pittsburgh Pirates – Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

This is the ninth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the closers. This is the most volatile position on your fantasy baseball team despite having the smallest category impact compared to other spots on your roster.

Each year there are usually 10 or more people that did not start the season at closer that end up getting a good amount of saves. That means that roughly 1/3 of the major league baseball teams are going to have closer issues. This makes the top tier of closers that much more valuable for their dependability and consistency. It also means once the top tiers of closers are gone, you don’t need to chase saves because there is a good chance multiple people  from the middle to low tier is going to lose their job that you draft, and / or you are going to be able to get extra saves through free agency during the season.

With that said, let’s examine the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 1-15.

1) Jonathan Broxton – dominant first year as closer, highlighted by 114 strikeouts and a .165 batting average against. Strikeout value pushes him to the top of the closer list.

2) Joe Nathan – 2008 and 2009 seasons were pretty identical except for a few more saves and a couple of more home runs allowed that boosted his ERA up.

3) Jonathan Papelbon – numbers look okay on the surface, but underneath stats give me some pause. Reverted back to fly balls ways like 2007. Of course the higher fly ball percentage means there is more of a chance for home runs to be surrendered.

4) Mariano Rivera – keeps getting older and every year people question will this be the year his performance finally drops off and every season he answers the bell. I predict he answers the bell once again in 2010.

5) Joakim Soria – shoulder problems and time on the disabled list kept his numbers down, except for his strikeout rate which jumped 2.9 per nine innings.

6) Francisco Rodriguez – three straight seasons of walk rate going up and strikeout rate going down. Second half was brutal with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP ratio.

7) Andrew Bailey – was a starter for three years in the minors. Spent some time as a reliever in Double-A in 2008 and then again the in Arizona Fall league. Reliance on cutter seems to suit him better as a closer.

8.) Heath Bell – throttled right-handed hitters, holding them to a .138 batting average  which was 116 points better than 2008. Surrendered zero home runs in the first half but then gave up three long balls after the All-Star break which jacked up his ERA.

9) Jose Valverde – missed a month and half of the early part of the season on the disabled list with a strained calf. Second half stats were back at his elite level with a 1.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP ratio.

10) Huston Street – lost his job as closer in April and once he got it back he was lights out converting 35 of 37 save opportunities. Stats were similar to his 2007 year. New contract extension gives him stability as the Colorado Rockies closer.

11) Brian Wilson – lowered his bating average against by 40 points and controlled home runs better in 2009; result was a 1.88 drop in ERA. Was better in the second half of the season with a 1.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP ratio.

12) Francisco Cordero – 2009 ERA and WHIP ratio look good on paper, but of concern is the drop in the strikeout rate of 2.2 per nine innings. Has been easier to hit by right-handers the last two seasons so expect some regression for his ERA in 2010.

13) Billy Wagner – came back from Tommy John surgery and looked good in a small sample size at the end of 2009. Good enough that he landed the closer job for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have some options in the bullpen to close games out so there will be some innings and saves he loses out on, even assuming full health.

14) Rafael Soriano – has had a big jump in his strikeout rate over the past two seasons, increasing his rate by 3.3 per nine innings. Injury history knocks his value down a few spots after spending time on the disabled list in three of the past five seasons.

15) Brian Fuentes – left Coors Field and somehow got worse. Possible combination of age plus the move to the American League impacted his numbers. Strikeout rate had a big drop going down by 4.3 per nine innings from 2008.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers 16 – 30.

This is the third part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of starting pitchers ranked 41-60.

41) Carlos Zambrano – four straight seasons of declining value in terms of dollars earned. High number of innings pitched at an early age seem to be taking a toll on him now despite being only 28. Has spent time on the disabled list the last two seasons. Only positive sign in ‘09 was the strikeout rate bounced back last year to his 2005 level.

42) Tim Hudson – made the comeback from Tommy John surgery and fared pretty well at the end of the year outside of WHIP ratio. I would be conservative with his forecast and use his 2005 numbers as your baseline.

43) Rich Harden – injuries and lack of innings keep him this low in the rankings. Has not pitched over 150 innings in a season since 2004 when he tossed 189 2/3. Has spent time on the disabled list each of the past five seasons, missing an average of 80 days per year. Lack of innings has biggest impact on wins as his career high stands at only 11, also back in 2004.

44) Clay Buchholz – finished the season in strong fashion with a solid September, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA  and 1.09 WHIP ratio. Batting average against dropped by 40 points in August and by another 32 points in September.

45) Kevin Slowey – wrist surgery ended his season in July. Strikeout rate improved but he was able to be hit easier in 2009 than in 2008. Fly ball pitcher that is prone to giving up home runs. Needs to start getting more ground balls to get his ERA down. Health is also a factor after spending parts of last two seasons on the disabled list.

46) Scott Kazmir – was scuffling in Tampa Bay in 2009, then a change of scenery to Los Angeles and he turned into a different pitcher, albeit in a small sample size. His 5.92 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for the Rays suddenly became 1.73 and 1.05 with the Angels. Health risk tempers expectations going forward with him missing a month or more of time in three of the last four years.

47) Jonathan Sanchez – was it really that easy for the light bulb to go on? Threw a no-hitter in early July and was then a totally different pitcher the second half of the season. Had a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP ratio after the All-Star break with a 10.4 K/9 rate., while holding batters to a .206 average. Going to be hard to maintain those numbers until he improves his walk rate which was 4.9 per nine innings.

48) J.A. Happ – ERA regression coming in 2010 as luck and a high strand rate held it under three last season. Needs to build on the improvements he made the second half of the season to his walk and strikeout rates.

49) Hiroki Kuroda – slightly increased his strikeout rate, but had his season cut short by injuries. His fantasy baseball ADP is lower than where he should be going for a guy with an ERA under 3.80 and a WHIP ratio in the 1.20 range since coming to the United States. One downside is he turns 35 in February and spent time on the disabled list each of the past two seasons.

50) Randy Wolf – his 2009 season came out of nowhere when you look at the last few years of his career. You can bet that his ERA and WHIP ratio are going back up in 2010. Has been healthy the last two seasons after missing three months per year with injuries from 2005 – 2007. Helped himself last season by holding left-handed hitters to a .159 batting average compared to a .283 mark in 2008.

51) Francisco Liriano – I had him ranked here before his performance in winter ball. Overall numbers for 2009 were not pretty, but a deeper look gives some reason for hope. Home numbers show a 4.55 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP ratio compared to 6.75 and 1.77 on the road so there is still skill there. Have to think some of it is mental now that he is two years removed from Tommy John surgery. It sounds like from his comments that he has rediscovered his confidence as well as his fastball this off season. We shall see if he can carry that performance over to spring training.

52) Johnny Cueto – looked like he was taking a step up from his rookie season when he fell apart the second half of the year. Had 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half of the season. Numbers that fell off to 5.81 and 1.58 the second half of the year and included a stint on the disabled list. Stats also tailed off the second part of 2009 as well so you have to wonder if his body can hold up for an entire season.

53) Rick Porcello – racked up 14 wins at the tender age of 20. Second half had much better numbers with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP ratio. Has the stuff to improve his strikeouts totals. Ground ball rate in the 50th percentile bodes well for his future.

54) Jorge de la Rosa – was just a thrower the first half of the season with strikeouts and not much else. Morphed into a pitcher the second half of the season as ERA was 3.46 and WHIP ratio was 1.30 while maintaining a high K rate. Was much better on the road with 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP versus 5.21 and 1.44 at Coors Field.

55) Daisuke Matsuzaka – missed four months worth of time with shoulder problems, this coming on the heels of him missing almost a month in 2008 with the same issue. Looked okay in four starts in September and October but walks are still the biggest issue for him. I would set your expectations around his 2007 season with fewer strikeouts and less innings pitched.

56) Jeff Niemann – turned in a good rookie campaign after spending the previous two seasons in Triple-A. Stats were similar between the two halves except for the improvement in strikeouts, improving his rate from 5.1 to 7.4 after the All-Star break.

57) Ervin Santana – was not able to fully build on his 2008 breakout campaign as a sprained ligament in his elbow affected his first half stats. Was much better the second half of the season with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP ratio despite giving up 16 home runs in just under 100 innings.

58) Mark Buehrle – pretty consistent numbers every season except for some fluctuations to his strikeout rate. Ability to limit walks and keep home runs in check ensures that his ERA stays under four the majority of the years.

59) Joe Blanton  – enjoyed his first full season in the National League, as he increased his strikeout per nine rate by 2.4. It’s always easier to pitch with confidence when you have a high scoring offense giving you 7.4 runs of support per start.

60) Shaun Marcum – missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the latter part of 2008. Tossed 15 2/3 innings in the minor leagues last season, so not enough of a sample size to draw any real conclusions from. No reason he can’t come back close to his 2007 season.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be closers.

This is the second part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of starting pitchers ranked 21-40.

21) Clayton Kershaw – much like Yovani Gallardo, had struggles with control and made it through six innings in only 16 of 31 starts. Much better in second half of season when he posted  2.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with a 10.9 K/9 ratio. Allowed only seven home runs in 171 innings. Won’t take the next step until he improves his command.

22) Javier Vazquez – current fantasy baseball ADP has him much higher as the 11th starting pitcher. People I guess are not adjusting his numbers with the move back to the much tougher American League East. I guess people also forgot what his line was the last time he pitched in New York, when he posted a 4.91 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. Still will be good for strikeouts and wins, but ERA and WHIP will will be much higher than it was last year.

23) Ricky Nolasco – Tumultuous first half that saw him sent down to the minor leagues for awhile. Much better after the All-Star break with a 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Improved strikeout rate to 10 per nine innings in the second half.

24) Chad Billingsley – first half was vintage Billingsley with 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Numbers blew up in July and September to skew the final totals. Expect a rebound back to 2008 levels.

25) Wandy Rodriguez – was dominant at home, posting a 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP versus 4.05 and 1.44 on the road, which was similar to his 2008 season as well. Really underrated in fantasy baseball terms as he’s passed over in fantasy baseball drafts for people with more name recognition. Good chance you will be able to land him a round or two later than you should.

26) Brandon Webb – underwent shoulder surgery in August. Started throwing in November and has not reported any problems or setbacks.  As more news comes out in spring training, I would expect him to start slowly moving up owners’ draft boards.

27) Jair Jurrjens – despite his great 2009 campaign, a few smalls signs of concern. Ground ball rate dropped by nine percentage points, walk rate is still a little high at three batters per game and his ERA will be higher in 2010. On the positive side, he improved against right-handed hitters, limiting batters to a .212 batting average, which was an improvement of 48 points from 2008.

28) Ryan Dempster – numbers regressed slightly in 2009 as batters started to figure him out a little more in his second season as a starter. Improved his walk rate for a fourth straight season. ERA should be around the same in 2010 but WHIP ratio should go down a few ticks.

29) Brett Anderson – just 21 last season and showed improvement the second half of the year. Had practically the same number of innings pitched both halves; boosted his strikeouts by 22 in the second half and almost cut his home run rate in half. Keeps going higher in mock drafts ever week so a guy that started out as a potential sleeper pick is now to the point of being almost  overrated with how much owners are moving him up their draft boards.

30) James Shields – became easier to hit in 2009 giving up an extra 23 points in batting average. First half of the season he had a 3.77 ERA and 1.28 WHIP ratio. Became prone to the long ball after the All-Star break, allowing 17 home runs in 90 2/3 innings and ERA rose to 4.67.

31) Jered Weaver – Was not able to maintain his excellent first half as he was hit hard after the All-Star break. Batting average against was 53 points higher in half two. Needs to build up endurance to be able to make it through 200 innings without impacting his performance later in the season.

32) John Lackey – not a lock for 200 innings after missing a month and half the last two seasons with injuries. His 2008 and 2009 seasons were pretty similar stat wise. Just know that wins and strikeouts have downside with the injury risk he carries.

33) Matt Garza – made some gains in 2009, boosting his strikeout rate by 2.2 per nine innings. Needs to improve his numbers on the road and outside of the division to make the next jump. ERA and WHIP at Tropicana Field were 3.24 and 1.20 versus 4.85 and 1.34 on the road. Went 6-3 against the American League East and was 2-9 versus the rest of the league.

34) Scott Baker – maintained his strikeout rate from 2008. Unlucky in first half with a low strand rate that accounted for the high ERA. Second half was much better with a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. WHIP should always be solid with his ability to limit walks.

35) Gavin Floyd – ERA and WHIP were pretty close in 2008 and 2009. Downside was the loss of six wins going from 17 down to 11. That’s what happens when you lose almost 2.5 runs per game of support. Did make a noticeable step forward in strikeouts. Bumped up his swing and miss percent of strikes by three percentage points in ‘09.

36) Max Scherzer – move to American League means some of the gains he would of made in ERA and WHIP in second full season may now appear flat numbers wise. Will get his share of strikeouts; just needs to be a little more consistent from start to start to get to the next level.

37) A.J. Burnett – piles up strikeouts and will get wins with the New York Yankees, but the rising WHIP ratio hurts a fantasy staff. Despite being healthy the last two seasons, still has some injury risk to him after missing two months in 2006 and again in 2007.

38) Roy Oswalt – battled through back problems in 2009 and the stats suffered. Passed on surgery and opted for a new workout routine to strengthen his core muscles. Watch for news in spring training to see if he is fully healthy.

39) John Danks – ERA and WHIP were similar in both halves of the 2009 season, but strikeouts fell way of in second half as K rate per nine dropped by 2.4. Have to figure that the blister and circulatory problem he had in July affected him the rest of the year.

40) David Price – came alive after the All-Star break, with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP ratio. But what happened to the strikeouts? His 5.9 K/9 rate the second half was a far cry from his 9.0 rate in the minor leagues. Command dramatically improved in the second half going from seven walks per nine innings down to just 2.7.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers 41-60.

This is the eighth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the starting pitchers.

1) Tim Lincecum – totaled 260+ strikeouts for the second straight season. People worry about his size and that he might break down, but the pitching motion taught to him by his dad seems to be working out so far. Has replaced John Santana as the one pitcher that will go in the first round in fantasy baseball drafts.

2) Roy Halladay – has turned up the strikeouts the last two seasons boosting his K/9 ratio by two per game. Has won 16+ games four consecutive years with an offense not as good as the new one he will be playing for in Philadelphia. Also gets the benefit of moving from the American League East to National League East which should only help his numbers. Great chance that he gets his third 20 win season this year. To fully the realize the impact of what a move from the American League to the National League means, check out the numbers for Cliff Lee and Javier Vazquez last season.

3) Dan Haren – mirror seasons almost between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. Three consecutive years of almost 200 strikeouts and a tight range of numbers for his ERA and WHIP ratio. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters. As consistent as they come.

4) Zack Greinke – the mental part of his game finally caught up to the talent and a star was realized. A phenomenal season in 2009 but I don’t want to pay for a repeat that is not likely happening in 2010. Did not allow more than three earned runs in a start until the beginning of June. Let’s see what happens if he faces some adversity this season and how he copes with it.

5) Felix Hernandez – third straight season of falling ERA as he has now shaved a full two earned runs from his mark in 2006. High strand rate kept his ERA under three so expect some correction there. Second straight year of improvement in batting average allowed to right-handed hitters.

6) CC Sabathia – concerns about workload early in his career never materialized as he has been a workhorse every season. Best chance in the American League to crack 20 wins with the offense around him and a stud closer. Much better the second half of the season with a 2.74 ERA and a strikeout per inning.

7) Justin Verlander – a combination of lowering his walk rate by 1.5 per nine innings and boosting his strikeout rate by 2.8 per nine allowed him to edge out Lincecum for the strikeout title. Much better pitcher at home last season with 2.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at Comerica Park vs. 4.04 and 1.26 on the road.

8.) Johan Santana – underwent arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in September and is supposed to be ready for spring training. Can’t assume an automatic bounce back to 2007 as his strikeout was down the last two years upon moving to the National League which is not a good sign. Usually a move to the league with no designate hitter boosts a pitchers strikeout numbers. Watch his stats in spring training to see how he is performing.

9) Adam Wainwright – was death on right-handed hitters last year, holding them to a .217 batting average. Dominant after the All-Star break with a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP ratio. Should be good for more of the same in 2010 if his arm can handle the 100 inning jump.

10) Josh Johnson – really not that far off from his 2006 season when he was last healthy except with better command. Like Wainwright, had a 100 innings jump from 2008 to 2009. Does having undergone Tommy John surgery already preclude him from future injury risk? I guess only time will tell.

11) Jon Lester – HUGE jump in strikeout numbers, boosting his K/9 rate by 3.5. After an awful first two months of the season, he was dominant the rest of the way with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.

12) Tommy Hanson – his .225 batting average against would have been seventh best if he had enough innings to qualify. Took some time to adjust to the major leagues the first half of the season. Flashed his stuff after the All-Star break with a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning. Right-handed hitters had no chance against him, batting a meager .192.

13) Chris Carpenter – numbers are terrific but age (will be 35 in April) plus his injury history makes him less than reliable. Has spent time on the disabled list four straight seasons. May be worth owning only if he falls a few rounds in the draft or you can get him at a discount in an auction. Tough to own him at full price knowing the odds are stacked against you.

14) Cliff Lee – fantasy baseball ADP slightly higher than where I see him. Sure, he was a beast in Philadelphia, but now he is back in the American League. Before the trade, control in Cleveland was worse than 2008 with 1.30 WHIP in ‘09 vs. 1.11 in ‘08. Strikeout rate was also slightly down with 6.9 in ‘08 and 6.3 in ‘09 in American League. When is off, the numbers can be tough to stomach. Had five starts where he gave up six or more earned runs in a game.

15) Josh Beckett – numbers turn out fine at the end of the season, but always seems to have a month or two each year where he gets clobbered so keep that in mind if you own him for the first time. Set a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts in 2009. Has only manged to toss 200 innings or more in three of eight seasons.

16) Yovani Gallardo – despite missing all of 2008, turned in a good season in 2009. Win total held in check due to control issues and pitch count numbers that keep him from working deeper in games. Managed to make it to six innings or more in just 17 of his 30 starts. Splits seem to show that he wore down the second half of the season. Had a 3.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP the first half and went 4.56 and 1.45 after the All-Star break.

17) Matt Cain – got his head back in the game in 2009 after struggling with lack of run support in 2008. Had the lowest run support of any starting pitcher in 2008 and it affected him on the mound. Got an extra 1.24 runs per mound appearance in ‘09 and pitched much better. Strand rate kept his ERA low so expect a little regression this season.

18) Cole Hamels – not much difference in 2008 vs. 2009 except for being much more hittable by right-handed hitters. After allowing a .215 batting average in ‘08, that number rocketed up to .282 in ‘09. Much better after the All-Star break with a 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9 rate. First half featured elbow issues in March and an injured ankle in May that probably accounted for the higher numbers. No reason for him not to return to 2008 levels.

19) Jake Peavy – some risk to him,  having thrown 200 innings in only three of six seasons. Loses the comfort of Petco Park which helped to surpress his ERA. Strikeout rate probably drops by at least one per game with the move to the American League.

20) Ubaldo Jimenez – how much the world has changed that a Colorado Rockies pitcher would crack the top 20 starters. Ground ball rate of 53% helps to limit some of the impact of Coors Field. Limits damage by keeping hits in the ballpark. Ranked seventh in home runs allowed in ‘09 and tied for second in long balls surrendered in ‘08.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers 21-40.

This is the seventh report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the designated hitters / utility players.

1) Vladimir Guerrero – strikeouts inching up, the few walks he takes inching down, though not a surprising trend as he turns 35 in a few days. In a good hitting environment in Texas and still owns a high batting average. Stats were much better after the All-Star break when he hit 11 home runs in 207 at bats.

2) David Ortiz – maybe it was simply a case of his eyesight being affected that caused the power outage the first part of the year. After hitting one home run in his first 178 at bats, he got eye drops for dry eyes in early June and then  belted out 27 home runs over the next four months. Average has dropped almost 100 points in two years. Struggled to make contact even in the second half of the season when he was hitting home runs, fanning 23% of the time vs. 18% in 2009.

3) Hideki Matsui – shows he still has plenty of power in his game, though turning 36 in June means he could miss some time. Has spent time on the disabled list three of the past four seasons. Keep at bat projections in the 450-500 range.

4) Travis Hafner – has missed time the last two years due to shoulder issues which has sapped him of some of his power. Struggles to hit left-handed pitching the last two seasons means days of his .300 batting average are over. Set at bat projections for no more than 400 and be happy with anything over that.

5) Pat Burrell – first half injury likely affected his power. Tried to make up ground the second half of the season and turned into a strikeout machine, fanning in 32% of his at bats. Playing time at risk with the options the Tampa Bay Rays have and prospects coming up in the minors.

6) Andruw Jones – really just a one trick pony now with some power and not much else. Not much chance for the batting average to go up when you strike out 36% of the time. Right now locked in as the Chicago White Sox designated hitter. Reports are he is in great shape coming into training camp, but being in shape doesn’t fix a broken swing.

7) Mike Jacobs – assuming he finds a starting job somewhere. You know what you get with Jacobs, 400 at bats and 20 home runs with batting average downside which could be helped if he is played exclusively against right-handed pitching.

8.) Jim Thome – recently signed with the Minnesota Twins. Playing time is going to be the issue as there has already been contradicting quotes from the general manager and manager just how he will be used. I have him penciled in for 300 at bats which still should yield home runs in the upper teens.

9) Randy Ruiz – made major league debut at the age of 30 in 2008. Owns minor league average of .304 so ability to hit for average is there. Should see time at the very least against left-handed pitching and in brief sample showed he had no problem with right-handers as well.

10) Ken Griffey Jr. – has value in an AL only league, with power to hit 20 home runs in 400 at bats. Not much use in a mixed league format unless you have daily transactions.

Take note that on Monday, 2/15 I will be releasing the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $9.99. It’s better than any magazine you will find on the stands because the information will be updated weekly up until Opening Day and the data will be in excel format so it will be easy to use. For that low price, you will get:

• Over 450 player projections – easily sortable by league or position. Includes all player ages as of Opening Day.
• All of the player notes that have been posted on the website as a quick cheat sheet to use during your draft.
• Expanded player rankings for all positions.
• A weekly article (that will not appear on the website) in regards to fantasy strategy for winning an auction or draft league.
• An in-depth article on how to use the player projections. Player rankings and projections are great, but if they are not used correctly, you are not getting the most out of them.
• Advice and guidance from someone that has been in the trenches and won leagues before. A lot of people writing articles or doing projections are just that, writers that have not been able to successfully win at fantasy baseball. In the 20 years that I have been playing fantasy baseball, I have won draft and auction leagues in multiple formats and can relate that information to you the reader.

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be starting pitchers.

This is the third installment of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. Notable players that I have ranked higher than their fantasy baseball ADP include Juan Pierre, Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick. Players that are ranked lower than their current ADP include Michael Bourn, Michael Cuddyer and Rajai Davis.

Just to give you some context to my rankings, I rank all players according to the players in their own position. You really have several ways you can rank players, either as a whole group and then break them out by position, which is what I use to draft the first six to eight rounds. After that point, it becomes a matter of filling out your roster by position and that’s where the rankings I have posted on the site come into play.

With that said, let’s examine the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 41-60.

41) Garrett Jones – has always shown power in the minor leagues although not to the extent he showed in 314 at bats. The batting average was a surprise as he had a .258 career minor league mark.  Offers added flexibility of qualifying at first base and outfield.

42) Michael Cuddyer – power spike at age 30, with consistent splits before and after the All-Star break. I don’t see this as a new home run level though, I would forecast for the low 20’s and be happy with anything above that.

43) Ryan Ludwick – 2008 season now looks like the outlier with 2009 the new baseline. Was on pace for 30 home runs last year before power fell off in the second half. Slugged 15 home runs in 246 at bats the first half, but only hit seven long balls in 240 at bats after the break.

44) Juan Pierre – don’t understand why everyone is discounting him so much. Should see 550 at bats and steal 50+ bases. Unlike all the other high steal players in the outfield, Pierre has the best track record and the most solid batting average. Pro-rate his numbers to 520 at bats last season and it puts him at roughly 85 runs, 46 RBI and 45 steals. Some really good value here based on his current fantasy baseball ADP.

45) Chris Coghlan- solid rookie season but even better in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, hit .372 with 54 runs and seven home runs. Not a whole lot of power upside, but will score a lot of runs hitting first and will have a solid batting average. Should steal some more bases; swiped 34 in 2008 and 24 in 2007 in the minor leagues. Great batting eye, minor league walk to strikeout ratio was 154 to 147.

46) Vernon Wells – power never came back from the broken wrist that caused him to miss 50 games in 2008. Just underwent underwent surgery on his left wrist in November and is supposed to be ready to start hitting in January. Watch reports on him in spring training to see how the wrist responds and set his power projection numbers appropriately.

47) Jermaine Dye – this ranking is assuming he finds a starting job somewhere as he is currently still unsigned. Had a great first half hitting .302 with 20 home runs and 55 RBI before falling off the cliff the second half, batting a paltry .179 with only seven home runs and 26 RBI. Based on the splits, have to assume there was an injury that affected him the second half of the season.

48) Corey Hart – has not been able to improve on his numbers from 2007. Not a god sign when he is in the prime age to be having a breakout. Average and power has dropped two straight years against left-handed pitching. Couldn’t even count on him for stolen bases last year as he was successful just 65% of the time.

49) Colby Rasmus – needs to improve his plate discipline and average against left-handed pitching to take the next step up. Hit only .160 against southpaws in 106 at bats last year. First half was .278 with 46 runs, 11 home runs and 34 RBI. Second half was in the tank with a .206 average and five home runs in 204 at bats. I think the heel injury that began bothering him June affected him the second half of the season. Should be able to steal more bases as he had double digit steals every year in the minor leagues and an 81% success rate.

50) Nick Swisher – if you can handle the yearly variations in his batting average, the rest of the categories are pretty consistent year in and year out. Rebounded against left-handed pitching and his batting average came back up from 2008 level. Offers added flexibility by also qualifying at first base.

51) Cody Ross – underrated and picked after players with “the name”. If you removed all of the players names and looked at just the stats, I think a lot of owners would have him ranked higher on their fantasy baseball draft board.

52) Michael Bourn – don’t see how he has an ADP that puts him in the top 20 outfielders. Career minor league average of .285 but strikes out too much to get much higher than that in the majors. Improvement against left-handed pitching by almost 100 points helped keep his average up. In a mixed league draft, it becomes hard to own a player like Bourn for three reasons.

a. you should try to get five category players as much as possible. Especially in the first three rounds, this should be your focus. Concentrate on getting 40-50% of your stolen base goal in the first 3-4 rounds depending how many teams are in your league.

b. carrying a player like Bourn puts you at a disadvantage in home runs and RBI, putting you two categories behind other owners that are drafting a more balanced team. It also means you are relying on him for that one category and if he turns an ankle or injures a hamstring, you lose the value of his steals. A hitter than has power and steals, even if he stops running, at least you have the value of his power.

c. drafting Bourn weakens you at another position. If you take a player like Bourn in the 5th or 6th round which is what his current fantasy baseball ADP is, that means you are taking a weak hitter at another position where there is less depth. In a 23 round draft, your last few hitters taken are most likely a corner player, an outfielder or two, utility hitter and possibly a catcher. So if you planned on taking an outfielder in round 20 and say a third basemen in round 6, you might have ended up with say Aramis Ramirez and Brett Gardner who could get you 40 steals. Instead by taking Bourn that high, you end up with Bourn at OF and Edwin Encarnacion at 3B.

53) Nyjer Morgan – more batting average upside than Bourn as Morgan owns a .294 career minor league average and a .303 mark in the major leagues. Had 18 steals in 278 at bats with Pittsburgh and then ran wild after going to the Washington Nationals, stealing 24 bases in 191 at bats. His stolen base attempt rate has been one every 9.6 plate appearances in the major leagues with a 70% success rate. If we give him 600 plate appearances, then an estimate of around 45 steals sounds reasonable.

54) Rajai Davis -I have him penciled in for 450 at bats. The Oakland A’s outfield looks pretty crowded in addition to finding at bats for Jake Fox and top prospect Michael Taylor who will ready for major league action by mid-season possibly.

55) Julio Borbon – hit for average in college, in the minors and then once he got to the major leagues, .30o+ in every stop. I would expect similar numbers to Morgan, only difference is this will be Borbon’s first season as a full-time starter so there might be some growing pains.

56) Juan Rivera – pro-rate out his 2008 numbers to match 2009 at bats and the stat lines are pretty much the same. Made marked improvement against left-handed pitching, boosting his average by 100 points. Only negative is his past injury history.

57) Josh Willingham – started the year with limited at bats due to the crowded Nationals outfield. In the second half when given regular playing time, numbers returned to 2007 levels. Should be good for 500+ at bats in 2010.

58) Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle gave him a chance for full-time at bats and he responded. Power stat splits were even first half and second half of the season. After going only 5 for 10 in stolen base attempts in first half, he was a perfect 11 for 11 after the All-Star break.

59) Mike Cameron – decent power numbers late in the draft if you can afford to take the hit to your team batting average. Stolen bases fell to single digits last year. Now at age 37, will probably remain that way going forward.

60) Travis Snider – needs to improve his plate discipline and cut down on his strikeouts in order to make sure he hangs on to starting spot. Won the starting join in 2009, hit .242 and was sent back to Triple-A. Came back in August and was slightly worse, striking out in 37% of his at bats.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be designate hitters / utility players.

Continuing the sixth report looking at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for  outfielders, here is a look at spots 21 – 40. I have a few people ranked lower than their current ADP in Josh Hamilton (obvious possible downside there) and Ichiro Suzuki as mentioned in the previous article. I also have several players ranked a few spots higher than their current ADP in Denard Span, Jay Bruce and Nolan Reimold.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for slots 21-40 to see how they shake out.

21) Alfonso Soriano – knee bothered him all season and  accounted for the drop in stolen bases among other things. Stats were good in April with seven home runs and four stolen bases before the knee issue started in May. Reunited with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo from Texas, so perhaps he gets his batting average back up.

22) Shane Victorino – solid consistent stats across the board as his 2009 line matched 2008 except for stolen bases. Those should be rebound a bit this year.

23) Josh Hamilton – injuries ruined his 2009 campaign limiting him to only 336 at bats. I would not expect a bounce back all the way to his 2008 numbers. Remember that his ‘08 season was driven by ridiculous first half numbers of 21 home runs and 95 RBI in only 377 at bats. In the second half of the season that year when the hot streak wore off, he was a more realistic 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 247 at bats.

24) Torii Hunter – a groin injury cut short what was turning in a career season for Hunter. Should be good for a 20-20 season in ‘10 with an average  around .280

25) Hunter Pence – somewhat saved his season by hitting 12 home runs the last two months of the year. Has not been able to crack 80 runs scored or 85 RBI in any season in the Houston Astros lineup.

26) Ichiro Suzuki – spelled out my case for him yesterday. Average varies too much from year to year to automatically project him in the .350 range. Stolen bases could be held to same levels as 2009 if he bats second with the arrival of Chone Figgins.

27) Andrew McCutchen – it was quite a 2009 for McCutchen as upon arriving in the majors suddenly improved his power and his stolen base success rate from the minor leagues. Power was aided by a hot streak in August when he jacked eight home runs. The other three months of the season he managed to hit only four. Keep the power expectations around the same for 2010 with more stolen bases thrown in.

28) Nate McLouth – numbers were in line with the previous year when you factor in he had 100 less at bats. His 2008 batting average looks like an outlier as he been under .260 every other season.

29) Denard Span – Ichiro lite without the upside for batting average. Best thing is you can get him several rounds later than he should be going.

30) Jay Bruce – wrist injury limited him to 345 at bats, but still managed to deliver 20+ home runs. Average has not been pretty in the majors, but was .308 in the minor leagues so he has the chance to improve on that if he can improve his plate discipline. Made some gains in that department despite the smaller sample size by increasing his walk rate by three percentage points.

31) Alex Rios – a bad year all around turned even worse after being claimed by the Chicago White Sox on waivers. In 146 at bats with his new club, Rios managed to hit only .199. Have to chalk it up as one of those off years that players sometimes have (see Jason Bay 2007).

32) Raul Ibanez – was on fire the first half of the season before coming back down to earth in the second half. Hit just .232 with 12 home runs in 241 at bats after the All-Star break. Had a career year at age 37. Don’t expect a repeat in 2010.

33) Carlos Quentin – still has not had over 480 at bats in a full season after missing time with Plantar Fasciitis in foot last year and also missed time in 2007 with a bad hamstring and torn labrum. Power was tracking to 2008 numbers, but batting average regressed to years pre-2008. Career batting average now sits at .254.

34) Johnny Damon – spike in home runs driven by new home ballpark where he knocked out 17 of his 24 long balls.  Still offers five category value which will be at a slightly lower level in a few categories depending where he signs.

35) Jason Kubel – gradual increases in playing time have led to upticks in stats the last two seasons. Inability to produce against left-handed pitching limits the upside to his numbers. Last season in 148 at bats, Kubel hit 2.43 with two home runs and 20 RBI against southpaws.

36) Adam Jones – had a big first off before tailing off after the All-Star break and an injury ended his season. Still needs to improve plate discipline to take the next step up in average.

37) Carlos Gonzalez – RBI total limited because 10 of his 13 home runs were solo shots. Like Jones, he still needs to work on plate discipline. Interesting though that his walk to strikeout ratio was the best when batting first, 13 to 24 vs. 15 to 46 in other spots in the batting order. Held his own against lefties, but with the depth of the Colorado Rockies, we will need to see if he plays full time against them in 2010.

38) Nolan Reimold – combine his Triple-A numbers and the Baltimore Orioles stats in 467 at bats and you get 70 runs, 24 home runs, 72 RBI and 14 steals. I think he will post a line similar to that in a full-time role this season. People want to discredit him as an older rookie but when you go to college and are advanced one level per year, you are going to hit the major leagues at the age of 25 or 26 so he is right on time in my eyes.

39) Brad Hawpe – four straight years of pretty similar numbers give or take a few stats. At bats always limited to around 500 as he sits against some left-handed pitching. Should be in line for more of the same in 2010 with the Rockies outfield depth.

40) Carlos Beltran – out at least the first month of the season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee and could be out even longer. Right now I have him down for 475 at bats. Should have a better guess as we get closer to the start of the season how his health is. If you are drafting now, I think this is the upside of his value.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be outfielders 41-60.

This is the sixth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the top 20 outfielders. Before I get a flood of emails from readers, I will tell you that Ichiro Suzuki is not in the list, so no, I did not miss him.  I see a lot of people are drafting him high as he has a current fantasy baseball ADP of 42 and is the 10th outfielder being selected.

To me, he is one of those people that are drafted based on his name and not necessarily his value. I will shows you my projections for two players and you decide how much difference there is.

Player A 95 runs  8 home runs  65 RBI  24 steals  .295 avg.

Player B 90 runs  7 home runs  46 RBI  29 steals  .318 avg.

Player A is Denard Span who has an ADP of 123 and is currently going 81 picks after Ichiro, who is Player B.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the players rank.

1) Ryan Braun – made small gains in plate discipline which was nice to see in his second year. Has roughly the same stats as Chase Utley, only difference is the position scarcity which puts Utley number four overall and Braun number five.

2) Matt Kemp – fell just short of the 30-30 club in 2009 and should be ready to break that barrier this year. Drove in over 100 runs despite batting seventh or eighth for 41% of his at bats.

3) Matt Holliday – when it was all said and done, put up similar stats to the year before in Colorado. Should continue to post stats long the same lines now back in the National League with St. Louis.

4) Jacoby Ellsbury – put in a nice sophomore season, stealing double figure bases every month except for August when he stole eight. Should score 100 runs or more every season in the Red Sox lineup. Has improved his stolen base percentage since reaching the major leagues, as he now as a career 85% success rate.

5) Carl Crawford – 2009 numbers returned to 2007 levels after injuries derailed his 2008 season. Went crazy on stolen bases in the first-half of the season with 44 bags, but only stole 16 after the All-Star break and was caught nine times.

6) Jason Bay – looks like he become more home run conscious last season as his strikeout rate went up almost seven percentage points. Showed he could handle playing in a big market environment. Now the question is whether he can handle the dimensions of Citi Field.

7) Justin Upton – turned in a 20-20 season at the age of 22. Much more patient at home than on the road with 37 walks compared to 18 in similar number of at bats. Still has power upside into the 30 home run range.

8.) Grady Sizemore – elbow and abdominal injuries wrecked his 2008 campaign. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting under .225 three of the past four years. Set your expectations against his 2006 season, with less runs and a lower batting average.

9) Jayson Werth – exploded at age 30 in his first season as a full-time starter. The at bats were the most he has had in a season since 2002, when he split time between Triple-A and the Toronto Blue Jays. Power should regress a little bit but the stolen bases should continue thanks to a 89% career success rate.

10) Nick Markakis – two straight seasons of declining stats in home runs and stolen bases, which is not the right direction to be trending when you are only 26 years old. Still has solid stats and has hit 40+ doubles the last three seasons so there may be a few more home runs lurking.

11) Adam Lind – turned in a monster power season with 46 doubles and 35 home runs. Stats were solid all around; every month of the season, home vs. road and lefty vs. right pitching.

12) Nelson Cruz – numbers would have been even better if not for an injury last season that kept him under 475 at bats. I have him ranked higher than his current fantasy baseball ADP so I think there is draft value here. Numbers were in line with his pro-rated line from the end of the 2008 season. Steals were an added bonus, but not out of the blue as he had 24 in ‘08 at Triple-A.

13) Curtis Granderson – will enjoy hitting in Yankees stadium for half of his games. Needs to improve against left-handed pitchers to get his batting average back up. Hit only .183 in 180 at bats with nine RBI against southpaws.

14) Andre Ethier – gradual increase in power the last two years although part of the jump in home runs was just due to more at bats. Average dropped as he had trouble with lefties, batting only .194 in 165 at bats.

15) Manny Ramirez – was on fire in April hitting .372 and then was suspended for PED use. Put up so-so numbers upon his return and hit 10 home runs in 231 after the All-Star break. Will be 38 in May so I would not count on a return to over 30 home runs again.

16) Adam Dunn – as consistent as they come in power with close to 40 home runs and 100+ RBI each season. You know his batting average is going to be in the .240 – .260 range so you will need to offset it with other people in your lineup. Offers the added bonus of qualifying at first base as well this season.

17) B.J. Upton – gave back the gains in his walk rate from 2008. Second straight year of almost 30 point drop in batting average. Went on a tear in June hitting .324 with five home runs, 22 RBI and 14 steals; then disappeared for the rest of the season. Stole 31 bases in 81 games and then managed to only swipe 11 after the All-Star break. Still have to hold out hope that he turns things around at age 25 and gets back to his 2007 numbers.

18) Carlos Lee – fifth straight season of 100+ RBI. Disappointing to see him score almost the same number of runs as 2008 despite an additional 188 plate appearances. A number that does not figure to get any better after  losing Miguel Tejada from the lineup. The days of his double digit steals seem to be over.

19) Shin-Soo Choo – numbers in line with pro-rating his 2008 stats. Has the speed to go 20-20 for the next few seasons. Solid batting average and an overall ADP of 69 makes him a nice value in the fifth or sixth round.

20) Bobby Abreu – you have to love the consistency that Abreu brings to the table, driving in 100+ RBI in seven straight seasons and scoring no less than 96 runs during that time period. His lowest at bat total in the last 10 years was 546 back in 1999. Now at age 36, he still should be good for another couple of years.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

• Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
• Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
• Expanded player rankings for all positions
• Ages for all players as of opening day
• Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
• The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
• You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
• Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will outfielders 21-40.