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2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitchers 21 – 40

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 4th, 2012

Here is the tenth article in the series of our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the next 20 starting pitchers. In this group you will find several starting pitchers coming off of injury from last season. While they have performed well in past season, many of them will be on an innings restriction in 2012 which will keep them from reaching their full value like they would in a normal season.

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball starting pitchers I have ranked for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

21. Stephen Strasburg – there is a limit to his upside as he will likely face an innings limit in his comeback from Tommy John surgery like Jordan Zimmermann did last season.

22. Mat Latos - struggled the first half of the season before turning it around after the All-Star break with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The move from PETCO Park to Cincinnati should elevate his ERA a little bit.

23. Michael Pineda – should get a couple more wins in New York while ERA and WHIP will be slightly impacted from the move away from SAFECO Field where he had a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP compared to 4.40 and 1.17 on the road.

24. Ricky Romero – continues to dominate right-handed hitters which led to a .216 overall batting average against. Lower than normal hit rate and great bullpen support pushed his ERA under 3.00 so expect that to rise in 2012. Numbers slid in the second half of the season for the second year in a row. In his career, ERA is 3.29 and WHIP is 1.27 the first half and 3.95 and 1.33 the second half of the season.

25. Josh Beckett – while 2010 was to one extreme for his hit rate and lack of bullpen support, 2011 was all the way to the other extreme as both of those numbers over corrected. Expect something closer to his 2009 season in 2012.

26. Matt Moore – should be among the league leaders in strikeouts despite being on an innings limit. Struck out 12.7 batter per nine innings over his minor league career. Only concern is his walk rate which was 3.1 in nine starts at AAA.

27. Gio Gonzalez – boosted his strikeout rate and it should go even higher this season with the move to the National League. Walk rate of 4.1 per nine innings is still an issue that needs to be ironed out to take the next step.

28. Brandon Beachy – will carry a higher than usual ERA from time-to-time based on his skills because he is a fly ball pitcher and is prone to variances from season-to-season. Strikeout rate of 10.7 per nine innings is going to be hard to repeat in his second season.

29. Matt Garza – big jump in strikeout rate with the move to the National League. Also saw a nice increase in his ground ball rate which gained 10 percentage points from 2010 which helped to keep his ERA low.

30. Tommy Hanson – last pitched on August 6th and was then shut down for the season with shoulder issues. Not a good sign when the team is expecting him to be healthy for the start of 2012 but they are still not 100% certain.

31. Josh Johnson – still has only one season of 200 or more innings pitched after making through only 60 1/3 innings in 2011 before shoulder issues forced him to the sidelines. Not worth the risk given his injury history regardless of how good his stuff is.

32. Adam Wainwright – coming back from Tommy John surgery, it may take him half of a season to find the groove so keep expectations realistic.

33. Yu Darvish – the best Japanese starting pitcher comes to Texas at the age of 25. In 2010, he had a 1.78 ERA with 2.1 walks and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Pitched 200+ innings in four of the last five seasons so durability should not be a concern.

34. Jordan Zimmermann – first season back from Tommy John surgery and he came back with improved control and he picked up his strikeout rate the second half of the season. Only downside is if the team limits his innings any in his second season after surgery.

35. Chris Carpenter – turns 37 in April and is coming off a second straight season of a falling ground ball rate and a rising batting average against. Too many good young pitchers out there to take the risk on drafting him.

36. Jeremy Hellickson – it looked like a solid rookie season, but his strikeout rate of 5.6 was far off from his 9.8 per nine innings in the minor leagues. His ratios were also helped out by a 23% hit rate this is going to correct as well as great support from his bullpen. Expect higher ratios, but a few more strikeouts in 2012.

37. Shaun Marcum – one of the few pitchers who has not seen an increase in his strikeout rate with the move to the National League. Seemed to fade down the stretch after striking out 8.1 hitters per nine innings the first half of the season, it fell to 5.8 after the All-Star break. Ended the season at a low point with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in September.

38. Cory Luebke – so far in 157 major league innings, he has been outpitching his minor league numbers in every category and without the benefit of PETCO Park as his numbers have been better on the road. Posted a 3.76 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP after the All-Star break in 14 starts.

39. Colby Lewis – fly ball pitchers are always at risk for balls flying over the fence at a higher rate from season-to-season which is what happened to Lewis in 2011.On a positive note, he did cut his walk rate and for the second straight season, he gave right-handed hitters fits.

40. Anibal Sanchez – took a big step forward in 2011 with a second year in a row of good health, a slight decrease in his walk rate and his strikeout rate went from 7.2 per nine innings to 9.3. Just needs to get a little more run support now to boost his win total.

Instead of spending money on outdated magazines written by fantasy owners with no experience of winning fantasy baseball leagues, order the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide today so you can start dominating the competition in your fantasy baseball league.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitchers 1 – 20

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 31st, 2012

Here is the ninth article in the series of our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the top 20 starting pitchers. Fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers will vary from year-to-year and site to site because two of the four categories that determine a starting pitchers ranking are ratio categories which many people have a tough time converting into a number. So while position players have more variance between each ranking, pitchers tend to be grouped much closer together. Missing out on the number one ranked pitcher is not quite the same as missing out on the number one ranked shortstop or catcher.

1. Roy Halladay – batting average against fell for the second straight season as he put up similar stats to 2010 plus he cut his home runs allowed from 24 to 10. One of the top three starters in fantasy baseball but I still like him number one.

2. Cliff Lee - what a difference the National League makes. His six shutouts were more than he had for his 11-year career. His 230 strikeouts were 53 more than his previous career high. I have him slightly ahead of Verlander.

3. Justin Verlander – three straight seasons of a declining ERA, WHIP and batting average against so expect a little regression in 2012.

4. Clayton Kershaw – had always been hard to hit in his career and then solved his control issues in 2011, while pitching even better the second half of the season with a 1.31 ERA and a .89 WHIP with 19 walks in 102 2/3 innings.

5. Felix Hernandez – strikeout rate per nine rose for the third straight season. Seemed to tire down the stretch as he allowed a .228 batting average the first half of the season and then .277 after the All-Star break when he posted a 3.91 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.

6. CC Sabathia – strikeout rate was up after a two year decline, given him his second highest strikeout total of his career. Batting average against rose for the second year in a row. Better in the first half with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP compared to a 3.44 ERA and 1.33 WHIP after the break.

7. Tim Lincecum – walk rate was up for a second straight season while strikeout rate fell for the third year in a row. Still a top five-seven pitcher, just no longer a top-3 best fantasy pitcher.

8. Cole Hamels – ground ball rate increased for a second straight season to 52%. Pitching for a new contract at the end of the season plus the improvement in walk rate should give the highest win total of his career in 2012.

9. Jered Weaver – strikeout from 2010 looks like an outlier now after his numbers returned to 2008-09 levels. ERA and WHIP both will regress in 2012 after a lower than normal hit rate last season but there is still a lot to like here.

10. David Price – walk rate fell for the second straight season while his strikeout rate is steadily rising. If not for pitching in the AL East, we would be looking at a sub 3.00 ERA every season.

11. Dan Haren – strikeout rate was the lowest that it had been in five years though it was somewhat masked by his career high in innings pitched. Ultra low walk rate gives him a somewhat stable WHIP regardless of any variations in his hit rate from year-to-year.

12. Zack Greinke – strikeout rate jumped with the move to the National League. Wins may be harder to come by with a lineup missing Fielder and possibly Braun.

13. Jon Lester – strikeout rate fell for the second year in a row. Walk rate plus the fact he throws only around 200 innings per seasons keeps him out of the top tier of pitchers.

14. Yovani Gallardo – has made big strides the last two seasons with his walk rate, going from 4.6 to 3.6 to 2.6 last season. If he can keep his gains in his ground ball rate from last season and his home run per fly ball rate normalizes, he should post the best ERA of his career in 2012.

15. Matt Cain – third straight season of improvement against left-handed hitters. ERA should rise a little bit after a suppressed home run rate in 2011. Will be one of the top free agent pitchers on the market next season if the Giants don’t get him signed to a contract.

16. Ian Kennedy – cut his walk rate by one batter per game while slighting raising his strikeout rate. His 21 wins from 2011 is going to drive his price a little higher than it should be this season.

17. Madison Bumgarner – slight uptick in velocity on his fastball and a higher usage of his slider helped to boost his strikeout rate. Was stellar the second half of the season with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP with 99 strikeouts in 100 innings.

18. C.J. Wilson – second season as a starter was even better with a decreased walk rate and an increase in his strikeout per nine number. Maintained his ground ball rate at 49% which helps to limit his home runs allowed total.

19. Dan Hudson – love to see that type of walk rate from a young pitcher and he showed improvement the second half of the season with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Strikeout rate should be slightly up in 2012 with a full major league season now under his belt.

20. James Shields – good news is that he kept his strikeout rate gains from the previous season. Bad news is his ERA and WHIP are both going up after an extreme correction to his hit rate percentage in 2011. He is going to be overvalued based on 2011 so while he is a solid pitcher, don’t pay a stud pitcher price for him.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Utility Players

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 28th, 2012

Here is the eighth article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at utility players. Utility players are players that don’t have enough games to qualify at any position on a fantasy baseball roster so they are confined to the utility spot. Personally, I don’t like drafting or buying these players in an auction because I think it tends to restrict movement on your roster and if can impact your ability to grab free agents on the waiver wire as well. Outside of Jesus Montero this year who might earn catcher eligibility at some point, I would rather have a position player in my utility spot.

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball utility players I have ranked 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide on sale now. I don’t have Johnny Damon Vladimir Guerrero or Hideki Matsui currently ranked since they are free agents and unsigned.

1. David Ortiz – reversed two years of an increasing strikeout rate and hit .329 against left-handed pitching which helped boost his batting average. Average also helped by the fact he hit .342 at Fenway Park compared to .273 on the road. Age and the fact he can only be used at a utility position on your fantasy roster gives him some downside.

2. Billy Butler - still waiting for that 25+ home run season from him. Lots of doubles again with 44, but unless you play in a league that counts total bases, it doesn’t quite get the job done for fantasy purposes. Hit 13 home runs in 284 at bats after the All-Star break vs. only 6 in his first 313 at bats of the season.

3. Jesus Montero – hit .306 for his minor league career and if he does get to catch a couple of games a week in Seattle, his value is going to get a big boost with catcher eligibility. If he did qualify at catcher, I would have him ranked right ahead of Matt Wieters.

4. Travis Hafner – has not had 400 at bats in a season since 2007, is now 34 and has not hit left-handed pitching three of the last four seasons. No real reason to own him except in AL-only leagues and you are an Indians fan.

5. Jim Thome – move to the National League limits his at bat number with no designated hitter slot. Could see a start or two a week at first base if Ryan Howard is out for a prolonged period of time.

Instead of spending money on outdated magazines written by fantasy owners with no experience of winning fantasy baseball leagues, order the 2012 FBT Draft Guide today so you can start dominating the competition in your fantasy baseball league.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders 21 – 40

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 27th, 2012

Here is the seventh article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at outfielders ranked 21-40. There is quite a bit of speed in this grouping so if you miss out on stolen bases at another position, this is a spot where you can find them.

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball outfielders I have ranked 21-40 for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

21. Ryan Braun – assuming the 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs holds up, you are looking at a maximum of 112 games if he plays every day. Given it might take him a couple of weeks to get adjusted again to major league pitching once he is reinstated as well as dealing with the possible booing and other responses he receives at visiting ballparks, I am projecting him for 90 games worth of full stats right now.

22. Brett Gardner – value is tied to his stolen base total which could have been higher in 2011 had his walk rate and batting average both not decreased. Tailed off the second half of the season as he batting decreased month-over-month the last three months of the year. Closer to a .260 hitter than a .280 hitter unless a lot of luck is involved.

23. Chris Young – stats were pretty similar to 2010 with a few less home runs and stolen bases. Has hit over .250 only once in his career which was in 2010 so that is his maximum upside for batting average. Yes, 20-20 players are nice to own but you need several high average hitters on the rest of your team to cover for his low number.

24. Adam Jones – hit more ground balls in 2011 but the fly balls he did hit flew over the fence at a higher rate last season. Has hit .290+ against right-handed pitching the last three seasons but has struggled more against left-handed pitching. If he could correct that, he could see a slight improvement in batting average.

25. Drew Stubbs – RBI total was lower in 2011 as he hit first in the lineup for the majority of the season. Strikeout rate remained in the 33-34% range which severely limits his batting average. Much better hitter at home where he has hit .277 in his career compared to .226 on the road. His fly ball rate was much lower in 2011 which contributed to his decrease in home runs from the previous season despite having 90 more at bats.

26. Jayson Werth – another player that struggled in the first year of a large contract with a new team. Hit .215 the first half of the season in 326 at bats and also struggled on the road all season long with a .215 average. Failed to hit left-handed pitching as well with a .184 average in 114 at bats.

27. Nick Markakis – three consecutive seasons of a declining slugging percentage does not bode well for a return to 20 home runs. Too many people are still drafting him remembering his 2008 season, but the underlying stats show he is not that player anymore.

28. Cameron Maybin - ground ball rate and home games at PETCO Park limit his home run potential for now. Hit seven of his nine home runs on the road in 2011, where he also batted .294 compared to .231 at home. Improvement in his contact rate got him on base more and gave him more opportunities to steal.

29. Andre Ethier – had a 30-game hitting streak that ended early in May and after that had issues with elbow, back and knee, the latter of which he had surgery on in September, which helped to contribute to his highest groundball rate since 2007. No reason not to expect a return to previous season levels as long as his knee is okay.

30. Michael Cuddyer - he has two things going for him in 2012, one is the move to Coors Field and secondly in leagues where 10 games is the minimum for position eligibility, he also qualifies at second base. Solid third outfielder for your fantasy team.

31. Nick Swisher – three things you can count on in life, death, taxes and Swisher’s stats. Yes, there is not much upside like some of the younger players, but there is also a lot less volatility from year-to-year with owning him as well.

32. Ichiro Suzuki – ground ball rate was the highest of his career and with speed slowing down as he gets older, batting average follows. Infield hits fell from 64 in 2010 to 42 in 2011 which was his lowest total since 2006. With his value built around two categories, average and stolen bases, there is a lot of risk and no upside.

33. Angel Pagan – made small gains in walk rate and contact rate in 2011. With most of his value tied to his stolen bases, it is a question of how much new manager Bruce Bochy is going to let him run that will drive his value.

34. Carlos Beltran – skills have remained relatively stable in his mid-30s but the injury risk he carries affects his draft value more than anything. I have him down for 500 at bats and even that might be shooting too high.

35. Torii Hunter – age has slowly robbed him of his speed has he has went 14-for-33 on stolen bases the last two seasons. At risk for fewer at bats in 2012 due to the depth of the Angels offense and another year of wear-and-tear taking a toll on him from playing the outfield.

36. Coco Crisp – made it through 130+ games for the first time since 2007. It all depends how desperate you are for stolen bases whether you want to own him and deal with his injury issues. A declining walk rate and weak Oakland offense cuts his runs scored potential.

37. Jeff Francoeur – this was much like his 2007 season in Atlanta with a lot more stolen bases thrown in. With a higher hit rate, fly balls going over the fence more, it combined to give him a season beyond expectations. Add to the equation an aggressive manager on the bases and it made him one of the top outfielders in 2011. Don’t pay for a repeat in 2012.

38. Alex Rios – bad luck impacted batting average which in turn affected his stolen base total. Hit just .203 on the road in 295 at bats and really struggled in every month until September when he hit .307 with five home runs and 11 RBI. He is too inconsistent from year-to-year for me to ever roster him on my team.

39. Melky Cabrera – 2011 bust out season fueled by elevated hit rate and more playing time. Runs scored will drop with the move to the National League and stolen bases will likely as well with a less aggressive manager in San Francisco.

40. Jason Heyward - the one knock on Heyward in the minor leagues was that he was missed time due to injury and we have seen that in his first two major league seasons. His groundball rate still ran high in his second season at 54% so the chance for 20+ home runs is greatly diminished. Batting average last season was due to bad luck so we will discount that, but all other categories we can’t expect to be a lot better than 2010 yet.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders 1-20

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 25th, 2012

Here is the sixth article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of outfield. Lots of change in position of the top 20 outfielders from last season as several players had comeback seasons and others suffered injuries which impacted their performance.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball outfielders for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Matt Kemp – number of at bats the last four seasons, 606, 606, 602, 602 so that number to project is the easy part. His 2011 season was magical in every category but I don’t think he maintains that rate in 2012 as his fly ball rate and home runs per fly ball jumped from past seasons. He should be right in between 2010 and 2011 in terms of power with lots of stolen bases. I have him almost dead-even with CarGo so I am comfortable with flip-flopping them between now and draft day.

2. Carlos Gonzalez – his numbers weren’t quite as far off from 2010 as one might think since he had 106 less at bats. Hit much better at Coors Field again with a .331 average compared to .252 on the road. Home run rate picked up the second half of the season when he hit 13 in 163 at bats. Neck-and-neck with Kemp for the first outfielder to go off the board.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury – his home run total was a surprise as the rate for his fly balls going over the fence was so much higher than any other season it would be unrealistic to expect something similar in 2012. More home runs of course means less time on the bases which yields less stolen bases so you need to adjust those two numbers accordingly depending on how many home runs you expect him to hit in 2012. Hit 21 home runs after the All-Star Break with 11 stolen bases.

4. Curtis Granderson – he ended 2010 with 17 home runs in 241 at bats after the All-Star Break and he was able to carry that same home run rate over the course of the entire 2011 season. His strikeout rate has risen for three straight seasons as he has swung for the fences more and he has enjoyed hitting in Yankee Stadium where he now has 36 home runs in 523 at bats there. His fly balls flew over the fence at a much higher rate in 2011 so expect that to pull back slightly.

5. Justin Upton – biggest reason for improvement in 2011 was good health and he was able to drastically cut his strikeout rate by 10 percentage points. Crushed the ball at home with 20 home runs and a .333 batting average at Chase Field. Increased his power output the second half of the season with 16 home runs in 244 at bats.

6. Josh Hamilton – numbers were in line with 2010 as was another season with time missed due to injury. Has one season with more than 518 at bats in four years which limits his chances to ever exceed his projected dollar value knowing he his bound to miss time at some point during the year.

7. Matt Holliday – nagging injuries impacted him at the plate as his strikeout rate was up five percentage points, but from a counting stats perspective, he would have outperformed his 2010 numbers if he had reached the same number of at bats as he had in 2010. Likely goes a few picks later in drafts this year since he missed time with injury which gives you a chance for a little profit.

8. Mike Stanton - showed what you want to see from a player in his first full season with growth the second half of the year. All numbers were higher the second half of the season including his walk rate which was significantly higher. Hit .271 in 214 at bats with 16 home runs and 36 RBI while drawing 40 walks after the All-Star Break.

9. Andrew McCutchen – traded contact for power which resulted in a lower batting average but more home runs. More at bats hitting third in the lineup than the previous season helped to boost his RBI total. Hit just .216 the second half of the season as strikeout rate ratcheted up.

10. Carl Crawford – a miserable first season with the Red Sox as he looked lost at the plate and when he did get on base he wasn’t running with only 24 stolen base attempts for the season. It was just recently announced that he had left wrist surgery which could impact his readiness for Opening Day. Struggled against left-handed pitching batting just .195 in 164 at bats. It stands to reason for a bounce back season in his second year of a massive contract but not all of the way back to 2010 levels as his strikeout rate has risen the last three seasons..

11. Hunter Pence – the move mid-season to the Phillies led to an increase in all of his numbers except for stolen bases as he attempted just two steals in 54 games with his new team. Has hit .318 in his career at Citizens Bank Park in 129 at bats with three home runs and 18 RBI. Expect more home runs in 2012 and fewer stolen bases than in past seasons.

12. Jay Bruce – it looked like he made improvements in 2011 but really the main ingredient was an additional 76 at bats then the previous season. His RBI total was helped by hitting a spot higher in the lineup in 2011. Was better when hitting 5th (15 home runs, 46 RBI) vs. 4th (10 home runs, 33 RBI) in the batting order.

13. Shin-Soo Choo – injuries limited to half of a season in 2010. Nothing in his stats showed much change so there is nothing to suggest he won’t be at his 2009-2010 levels in 2012. He has been getting knocked lower in mock drafts which is good news for astute fantasy owners.

14. Nelson Cruz – injuries have held him under 476 at bats the last three seasons. Massive difference when he hits at home compared to the road. He hit .293 vs. .233 (2011), .371 vs. .267 (2010) and .286 vs. .232 (2009). Given the amount of time he misses each season, you need to have a good outfielder on reserve to fill in for him.

15. Desmond Jennings – hit .294 for his career in the minor leagues with an 85% success rate stealing bases. He is not a 20 home run hitter yet so don’t make the mistake of pro-rating his power numbers out over the course of a full season. Should be in the low teens in terms of power and should be close to 40 stolen bases for the season.

16. B.J. Upton – batting average tanked at home with a .209 average in 273 at bats at Tropicana Field. Strikeout rate remained the same which limits his batting average. Would really like to see him get a full season hitting second or third in the batting order where he has hit much better in his career. If that happens, bump his value up a notch or two.

17. Michael Bourn – stolen bases did not fall off with the trade to Atlanta last season as he had 29 attempts in 53 games. Should be close to 60 steals again but his batting average will be lower after an inflated hit rate in 2011. Has hit .273 with a home run and 11 RBI in 43 games at Turner Field in his career.

18. Shane Victorino – reversed decline against right-handed pitching from the previous two seasons which helped to boost this batting average back up. Stolen bases were under 20 for the first time in the last five seasons, but that was due more to a lack of attempts rather than a decline in skill.

19. Corey Hart – better second half than first when he hit .297 with 16 home runs in 266 at bats. More than half of his at bats came hitting first in the batting order which reduced his RBI total so that should be headed up as he moved lower in the order in 2012.

20. Alex Gordon - magical season in 2011 but don’t pay for a repeat. Batting average was propelled by some luck, plus the fact he finally hit left-handed pitching. Kansas City was aggressive on the bases last season which drive his stolen base total.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 20th, 2012

Here is the fifth article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. The top half of the position is fairly strong, but if you are looking to find power late in the draft at this position, you are going to have a difficult time finding anyone to hit 20 home runs.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball third basemen for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections is available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Jose Bautista – was on a tear the first half of the season, hitting .334 with 31 home runs and 65 RBI in 84 games. After the All-Star Break, he was not quite as good, batting .257 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI in 214 at bats. Impressive that he still hit 43 home runs despite drawing walks five percentage points more than he did in 2011.

2. Evan Longoria -bad luck masked some small improvements as his hit% was 10 percentage points lower in 2011. On the positive side, he cut down on his strikeouts and boosted his walk rate. Disregard his batting average from last season because that will come back to its normal levels. For those people drafting at the end of the first round, they are in for a treat this year with Longoria sliding that late and into the second round in some drafts.

3. David Wright – his strikeout rate remained stuck in place for the third straight season, making it hard to see him hitting .300 again any time soon unless he has another fluky 40% hit percentage like he did in 2009. Missed two months with a stress fracture in his lower back, a condition that could become chronic as he gets older making him more of a risk in keeper and dynasty leagues. Moving in the fences at Citi Field should give him an extra three to five home runs this season provided he is healthy.

4. Adrian Beltre – loved hitting in Rangers Ballpark where he launched 23 of his 32 home runs on the season, while hitting .326 compared to .271 on the road. Power was off the charts after the All-Star Break where he hit 13 home runs in 128 at bats.

5. Ryan Zimmerman – missed time with an abdominal injury that affected him all season as he beat ground balls into the dirt for a good portion of the season at a 50% clip, by far the worst percentage of his career. Again, another value play at third base as his injury-marred numbers are causing him to go in drafts later than he did in 2011.

6. Alex Rodriguez – has one season of more than 500 at bats in the last three years and is slowly starting to wear down at age 36. Slugging percentage has declined four consecutive seasons making 30 home runs look like likely in 2012. Lack of double digit stolen bases the last two seasons cuts into his value as well.

7. Pablo Sandoval – quite a difference in performance when one is healthy and in shape. Hit .325 after the All-Star Break with 15 home runs and 41 RBI in 231 at bats. Watch for spring training news on him to make sure that his weight has not ballooned back up.

8. Michael Young - consistent as they come with 600+ at bats in eight of the last nine seasons. Despite his lack of power, all of the stats add up nicely at the end of the year just because of the amount of at bats he accumulates. Has hit over .300 every other year over the last five seasons which would put him under this season if he continues the trend.

9. Kevin Youkilis – has fallen short of 500 at bats the last three seasons and given his age projecting over 500 at bats is a stretch. Batting average against right-handed pitching has fallen for three straight seasons knocking him down the third base rankings a peg or two.

10. Brett Lawrie – don’t make the mistake of pro-rating his numbers out over a full season when projecting his 2012 stats. Keep in mind that he turned 22 this month, has yet to go through a slump and pitchers will have a record on him for his second year in the league. That being said, he has a lot of promise and 20-20 third basemen don’t grow on trees.

11. Aramis Ramirez – finally had his first healthy season in the last three years just in time for a new contract. Has hit good in Miller Park in his career with a .270 batting average and 15 home runs with 62 RBI in 300 at bats. With Ryan Braun possibly out 50 games, Ramirez is the favorite to hit fourth in the lineup.

12. Mark Reynolds – he is good at three categories and at a weak position, that may be enough to roster him depending on the makeup of the rest of your team. Strikeout rate was at 37% last season making around a .240 average the best we could possibly hope for with a little bit of luck thrown in. Second straight season of single-digit stolen bases which impacts this value as well. Struggled mightily at Camden Yards, hitting just .176 in 261 at bats compared to .264 on the road.

13. Ryan Roberts – finally got a chance for full-time at bats at age 30 and he delivered for the most part. Walk rate and aggressiveness of manager will give him a chance to match his stolen base total. Needs to be able to hit right-handers better (.238 for career) in order to get batting average above .250.

14. Martin Prado – was off to a solid start before missing the majority of June with a staph infection in his right calf. Came back the second half of the season and did not seem quite like the same player as he hit .228 over the last two months of the season. Overall, he had some bad luck with a h% of 27 instead of being in the 33-34 range which means his average is headed up in 2012.

15. David Freese – injuries has plagued him his first few seasons in the major leagues so despite three years of time, he only has 573 career at bats with 14 home runs, 91 RBI and a .297 batting average. Hit .307 in his minor league career so the average is legit. Keeper league owners keep in mind that he is already 28-years-old despite his limited time in the major leagues. Is likely to get drafted a round or two higher in some leagues as people remember his playoff performance where he hit .397 with five home runs and 21 RBI in 63 at bats.

16. Mike Moustakas – batting average was about where I expected it to be with a career minor league average of .282. What was surprising however was his lack of power as he slugged just .367 in 338 at bats and four of his five home runs came in September. Still needs work against left-handed pitching as well with a .191 batting average in 89 at bats.

17. Edwin Encarnacion – did little the first two months of the season with just one home run in his first 146 at bats, but then his 16 home runs in his last 335 official plate appearances. Has always had power in his bat, it is just a question of how much playing time he gets.

18. Chase Headley – career batting average is .303 on the road and .229 at home in PETCO Park. If your league has daily transaction, then he has a little bit more value as you can get him in and out of your lineup. With that said, he still has not shown any power no where he hits and his stolen bases his what keeps his value afloat. The Padres has prospects coming up at third base so he could be traded at some point this season which could give him a boost in value.

19. Casey McGehee – bad luck accounted for his drop in batting average with a 25% hit rate and more ground balls at 50% led to his decline in home runs. His numbers this year are probably somewhere in between 2010 and 2011. Could see time at first base or third base in Pittsburgh.

20. Lonnie Chisenhall – held up against left-handed pitching nicely which is a good sign for a young left-handed hitter. Actually hit five of his seven home runs against southpaws so power against right-handed pitching needs to improve. As does his plate discipline with just eight walks and 49 strikeouts in 212 at bats.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 14th, 2012

Here is the fourth article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of shortstop. If you are looking for a position to grab stolen bases from then you came to the right place with eight possible options at this position that could steal 30 bases or more including one (Dee Gordon) that will make a run at the stolen base title.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball shortstops for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections are available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Troy Tulowitzki – third straight season where he performed much better after the All-Star Break, this time hitting .356 with 13 home runs and 48 RBI in 205 at bats. If he can ever put two of those halves together, it would produce an MVP type season. Stolen bases look like they are going to hold around the double digit range but not approach 20 again, but runs scored should go up after being down in 2011 with Michael Cuddyer behind him in the lineup.

2. Hanley Ramirez – underwent shoulder surgery in September and is expected to be 100% by Openeing Day so it pays to listen closely for any news on issues during his rehab leading up to that point. We’ll throw out his batting average last season due to some bad luck, but his power looked the same as 2010 due to an increase in his groundball rate from 2009. There is also the issue of his attitude with the move to third base so while he is still athe second best shortstop, there is a little bit of risk to him.

3. Jose Reyes – healthy for the second straight year for the most part but still spent time on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. If you are going to own him, it is a good idea to make sure you have someone else on your roster than play shortstop as well for the times when he is out of action. Batting average will be lower after an inflated hit rate in 2011 but as long as he is healthy, he is a solid number three shortstop. Stole 30 bases in his first 8 games but then only nine in his last 46 contests.

4. Starlin Castro – power was nowhere to be seen until he launched five home runs in August. Steal needs to refine his work on stolen bases as he was 10-for-11 the first half and 12-for-20 after the All-Star Break. Should annually flirt with .300 given his contact rate and hit percentage.

5. Elvis Andrus – for the second straight season his stolen base attempts drastically fell off the second half of the season as did his success rate. Overall he improved his success rate on stolen bases, but it could have been even higher had he not gone 11-for-20 after the All-Star Break. Will be in the mix to lead all shortstops in runs scored in the Rangers lineup and has a great chance at cracking 40 stolen bases this season.

6. Jimmy Rollins – reversed a three-year slide of his batting average as he hit% corrected and he hit better against right-handed pitching than he did in 2010. Stolen base success rate is still holding up so there is no reason he is not around 30 steals again. Any prolonged loss of Ryan Howard in the lineup could impact runs scored.

7. Asdrubal Cabrera – how can a hitter go from six home runs to 25 home runs in a season? If you are Cabrera, you expand your strike zone, turn ground balls into fly balls and more than double your home run per fly ball rate. If the over/under on home runs is 20 in 2012, the chances of that number being over is very, very, very remote.

8. Alexei Ramirez - there is something to be said for the consistency he has showed in all four seasons in the major leagues as every stat category has been in a nice tight range. The only question is how much of a chance he is going to get to steal bases with a new manager in place in 2012.

9. Derek Jeter – almost made it to .300 again thanks to a .327 average the second half of the season. Hit the disabled list for the first time in the last five seasons and there is a better chance of that happening going forward now at age 37.

10. J.J. Hardy – healthy and over his wrist injury coupled with improvement against left-handed pitching and an increase in his fly ball percentage led him to a career-high of 30 home runs. Expect regression in 2012 but assuming full health, he should be back to his 2007-2008 levels..

11. Erick Aybar – overall stable numbers in all categories and if manager Mike Scioscia would just stick him first in the batting order and leave him there, his numbers could be even better. Addition of Albert Pujols to the lineup and a possible healthy Kendrys Morales should help boost his runs scored.

12. Dee Gordon – had 31 stolen base attempts in just 56 game in his rookie season so he has a great chance to break 50 steals assuming his fielding can hold up as he committed 10 errors in 2011. Like most young hitters, he still needs to learn patience at the plate with just seven walks in 224 at bats.

13. Jhonny Peralta – power has returned after returning to his fly ball ways and his batting average has a little better chance to be closer to .270 thanks to a reduction in his strikeout rate. Hit .323 against right-handed pitching which spiked his batting average so expect that to come back down in 2012.

14. Stephen Drew – fractured his right ankle in July and his readiness for the start of the season is still in question. Strikeout rate has risen the last two seasons and he struggled against left-handed pitching again for the second time in his last three years. Outside of 2008, he has looked like just another average shortstop.

15. Ian Desmond – had 59 more at bats in in 2011 and added six runs scored and eight more stolen bases while falling off in the other three categories. His drop in batting average was not a surprise given he was a .259 career minor league hitter. Strikeout rate rose slightly and a ground ball rate above 50% is going to make it hard for him to 15+ home runs in a season. Stole 20 bases in his first 85 games and then was 5-for-11 in steals in his last 69 contests.

16. Yunel Escobar – bounced back as expected and his numbers were more in line with his 2009 season in Atlanta. The difference in RBI between those two seasons is due to his place in the batting order. Hitting first for the Blue Jays is going to suppress his RBI numbers compared to in Atlanta when he was further down in the lineup.

17. Alcides Escobar – move to the American League plus an aggressive manager gave Escobar a chance to flash his only fantasy skill at this point of his career. Given his lack of plate discipline, it is going to be tough though for his stolen base total to get much higher than 30.

18. Emilio Bonifacio – a lot of his value is going to be tied to his playing time and with a new manager in place that does not have any allegiance to him, it remains to be seen if he is going to get 500 at bats again which is what I currently have his value based on. Multi-position eligibility makes him a little bit more attractive in non-trade leagues.

19. Rafael Furcal – has spent time on the disabled list four of the past five seasons and that doesn’t figure to change as he heads into his mid-30s. Numbers were much better in St. Louis where he hit .255 with seven home runs and four steals in 196 at bats. With that said, there are enough other options at shortstop to not get stuck with him and spend night praying for his health to hold up.

20. Marco Scutaro -missed time with a strained oblique in 2011 which impacted at bat totals. The trade of Jed Lowire means Scutaro should get one more season of 500 at bats in Boston before prospect Jose Iglesias takes over.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 12th, 2012

Here is the third article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of second base. Right now I have Brian Roberts ranked outside of the top 20 as it sounds like he is still suffering post-concussion symptoms eight months after the fact which is a troubling sign. There is a lots of young talent in this group with Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Dustin Ackley and Jose Altuve to name a few so dynasty league owners should be zeroing in on them.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball second basemen for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections are available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Dustin Pedroia – hit 20 home runs for the first time in his career thanks to seven home runs off of left-handed pitching. It remains to be seen how much running he will be doing with a new manager in Boston. I like Robinson Cano also, but if I am going to take a guy in the first round, I want to get close to 20 stolen bases unless the player is off the chart in the other four categories.

2. Robinson Cano – three straight seasons of 100+ runs scored and 25+ home runs. For the second year in a row he posted a higher average on the road and hit more home runs at home. If you wanted to nitpick, you could point to the fact his strikeout rate has risen the last two seasons, but owners will gladly take the additional home runs.

3. Ian Kinsler – posted the second 30-30 season of his career thanks to a career-high 620 at bats. Also was much more patient at the plate as he walked 18 more times than he struck out. I would bank on his batting average going up in 2012.

4. Brandon Phillips – RBI total went up as expected as he hit leadoff much less in 2011. Stolen bases attempts have dropped the last two years and due to his poor success rate, it is doubtful he is going to crack 20 steals again. Last season was the first time he hit .300 in his career so expect his average to head south this season.

5. Ben Zobrist – bounced back close to his 2009 numbers making his 2010 season look like an aberration. He did that despite hitting just .221 at home compared to .311 on the road. I like him slightly ahead of Dan Uggla again for the stolen base appeal.

6. Dan Uggla – had his 5th consecutive season of 30+ home runs with a career-high of 36 long balls. Got off to a horrible start in his first season in Atlanta hitting .185 the first half of the season before coming back to hit .296 after the All-Star Break.

7. Chase Utley – batting average fell for the 5th straight season and injuries have limited him to less than 430 at bats each of the last two seasons. Home run rate has dropped three years in a row as well which limits the chances for any rebound to his 2009 numbers.

8. Rickie Weeks – chance he moves down in the order this season with the loss of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun out possibly 50 games which should boost his RBI total. Overall numbers are going to be again driven by his health. Keep in mind that 2010 was the only season of his career with more than 475 at bats.

9. Howie Kendrick – was healthy for a second straight season and finally had a power outburst that many owners had been waiting several years for, thanks to a seven percentage point jump in his strikeout rate. Had double-digit steals for his 4th straight season and offers nice roster flexibility qualifying at three positions in 10 game leagues.

10. Danny Espinosa – on the surface his numbers look like he had a decent rookie season outside of his batting average, though that was expected to be low. Hit 16 home runs the first half of the season with 12 stolen bases and then only put up five home runs and five stolen bases after the All-Star Break. Really like the possibility of 20-20 from a middle infielder but you have to be able to carry his low average.

11. Kelly Johnson – second season in Arizona was not quite productive as his first which resulted in him being traded to Toronto. Average tanked with the D-Backs as he hit .209 and he pressed at the plate resulting in an elevated strikeout rate of 31%.

12. Jemile Weeks – figures to be one of the lone bright spots in an anemic Oakland offense. Hit .286 in his minor league career so I expect to see his average go down this season. Needs to be able to take more walks to get on base and have a better success rate stealing in order to break the 30 steal barrier.

13. Jason Kipnis – it was a solid debut season for Kipnis but don’t go overboard on forecasting his home run totals for a full season based on his small sample size from last year. Had a career .297 minor league average and was 19-for-21 on stolen bases on his two final minor league stops.

14. Ryan Roberts – finally got a chance for full-time at bats at age 30 and he delivered for the most part. Walk rate and aggressiveness of manager will give him a chance to match his stolen base total. Needs to be able to hit right-handers better (.238 for career) in order to get batting average above .250.

15. Dustin Ackley -started off his major league debut hot with five home runs in 131 at bats and then cooled off with one home run over his final 202 trips to the plate. Hit .219 in September in 96 at bats, though he did steal four bases. Likely another year away at least from having good value in an annual mixed league format.

16. Neil Walker – last season was much like his rookie campaign except he went from five to 15 stolen base attempts. Has not shown as much power in PNC Park with only nine of his 24 home runs hit there.

17. Aaron Hill – when his average tanked in 2010, at least his power held up. In 2011, both went sour, but then he stole 21 bases which was almost more than he had in his entire career to that point. Hit .315 in 124 at bats with Arizona, but showed no power to speak of with two home runs in 124 at bats. It was just three years ago when he his 36 home runs so there is power hiding in there somewhere.

18. Jose Altuve – plays in a weak offense that will limit his runs scored and after bypassing Triple-A, he could struggle some this season. On the plus side, he hit .324 over his minor league career, and made good contact in the major leagues, striking out only 29 times in 221 at bats. He is going to need to walk more than five times though in order to take advantage of his speed on the bases.

19. Johnny Giavotella – career .305 minor league hitter with stellar plate discipline that disappeared when he hit the major leagues. Had only a 67% success rate on stolen bases in the minor leagues so we’ll see how long he gets a green light for in Kansas City.

20. Daniel Murphy - tore his MCL in August but is expected to be 100% by spring. Good batting average, though I don’t think he is a .300 hitter at the major league level and he can get you 10-12 home runs as a late round pick in the middle infield spot. Also qualifies at three positions which is nice for roster flexibility.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 10th, 2012

Here is the second article in the series for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of first base. Right now I have Kendrys Morales and Justin Morneau ranked just outside of the top 20 because I have them projected with around 400 at bats until we learn more about their status as they work their way back from injury.

Injuries have robbed Morneau of playing time the last two seasons and he has not been the same since suffering a concussion in July of 2010. He is still experiencing concussion symptoms today which makes him a major question mark in 2012. Given the depth of the first base position, I would be looking for a much safer alternative rather than trying to roll the dice on Morneau or Morales in annual leagues.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball first basemen for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections are available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Albert Pujols – moves to the American League and should have no issue maintaining his numbers for the next few seasons. Fell one RBI short of 100, one steal short of double digits and one hit short of batting .300. Statistically this was the worst season of his career, but he is still one of the most consistent players from year-to-year which counts for a lot given the amount of first round busts each season.

2. Miguel Cabrera – batting average has gone up for three straight seasons to a career-high of .344 and he broke 100 walks for the first time in his career. Had a few less home runs and RBI in 2011 but no reason for both of those numbers not to come up a little bit in 2012.

3. Joey Votto – now assumes the throne of the best first basemen in the National League with the move of Pujols to the A.L. All of his numbers slightly dropped in 2011 but those numbers are still at a top tier level.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – the move away from PECTO Park was expected to help his offensive numbers, but his home run total ended up being the second lowest total of his career. Given the jump in batting average and a career-high in runs scored, most fantasy owners are willing to live with that trade off. He failed to take advantage of Fenway Park, hitting only 10 home runs in 314 at bats and he only managed to hit three long balls against left-handed pitching and both of those numbers should correct in 2012.

5. Mark Teixeira – came close to 40 home runs again, thanks to a career-high 15 home runs against left-handed pitching. Batting average has dropped three straight seasons but I am not concerned about that. His contact rate has held steady as has his average against southpaws so it is has been more a matter of bad luck than loss of skill. I would expect his average to rebound in 2012.

6. Prince Fielder – average has alternated up and down all seven seasons in his career plus he has yet to hit over .300 in his career so I expect that number to be going down in 2012. Regardless of where he signs as a free agent, his power numbers should not be impacted at all..

7. Ryan Howard – two straight seasons of less than 100 runs scored and his home run total looks to be in the low 30′s going forward. The biggest issue of course is the Achilles injury that occurred at the end of the NLDS this past fall that could case him to miss part of the first month of the season. Turned 32 in November and given his injury I would be looking for other options at first base in 2012.

8. Paul Konerko – solid second tier option at first base who has seen his numbers take a step back up in his mid-30′s. Home run rate dropped off the second half of the season with one home run every 24 at bats compared to one every 15 at bats before the All-Star Break. He has been an underrated option at first base for many years, but he does turn 36 in March so a decline is going to start happening at some point.

9. Eric Hosmer – stellar rookie season that figures to only get better in his second year. Check out his second half numbers where he hit .313 in 284 at bats with 11 home runs, 44 RBI and nine stolen bases. Then look at the fact that he hit only one home run in 152 at bats against left-handed pitching in 2011. His draft status will likely be claiming the closer it gets to draft day so those in leagues that draft earlier will have a better shot at him.

10. Mike Morse – has performed better in the major leagues than he ever did in the minors and it is not too often that players close to 30-years-old all of a sudden start hitting 30 home runs. On the plus side though, if you doubled his 2010 at bats to get to his 2011 totals, all of his other numbers were right in line and held up over a full season.

11. Gaby Sanchez – made slight improvement in his plate discipline though it wasn’t reflected in his overall numbers in 2011. Needs better endurance in order to be able to put two solid halves of baseball together. Because he did not improve on his numbers last season, there is a good chance he falls a couple of rounds later than he should in drafts this season.

12. Lance Berkman – hit left-handers like he did back in 2008 and was healthy for the majority of the season which was a surprise given he moved to the outfield. The loss of Pujols puts Berkman back at first base in 2012, but given what he did last season, he is going to be overvalued this year so let someone else own him.

13. Mark Trumbo – no doubt about his power, the only question is how many at bats he is going to get if Morales is healthy. The plan was to try him at third base but he has been bothered by a stress fracture in his foot this offseason which has not allowed him to start working at the position.

14. Carlos Lee – average bounced back as expected and he still is making good contact at age 35. Runs scored are going to be low in a light-hitting Astros offense but still has decent value after the middle of the draft and he qualifies at first base and in the outfield which gives additional flexibility.

15. Paul Goldschmidt – it is easy to get caught up in his power after he his 30+ home runs his last two minor league seasons. Remember that he did jump from AA last season and he had a 34% strikeout rate in his first season. In keeper leagues, yeah, I am all in. In annual leagues, I am a little bit more cautious for 2012.

16. Adam Dunn – hard to hit the baseball when striking out 43% of the bat. His first year in the American League was a total disaster as he hit .064 against left-handed pitching and managed just three home runs on the road. It could have been simply a matter of adjusting to new the league and trying to justify the four-year $56 million contract the White Sox had given him. I expect some bounce back though not all the way to his 2010 season.

17. Adam Lind – his batting average against-left-handed pitching rebounded but it made only a little bit of difference as fewer balls fell in for hits once again. His first half was stellar with a .300 batting average and 16 home runs in 260 at bats before hitting .197 after the All-Star Break in 239 at bats.

18. Ike Davis – missed the majority of the 2011 season with an ankle injury that he failed to have surgery on at the end of the season which makes him a slight injury risk in 2012. Before the injury, he looked like he was on his way to an increase in power with seven home runs in 129 at bats. The one negative was his .163 batting average against southpaws although it was a small sample size of 43 at bats.

19. Freddie Freeman – showed a little bit more power that expected in his rookie campaign but otherwise all other numbers were in line with projections. Held up well against left-handed pitching with a .247 batting average and seven home runs in 186 at bats.

20. Aubrey Huff – the spoils of success: was out of shape physically and not in the game mentally as well and his numbers fell off a cliff in 2011. He was overvalued in 2011 and will be undervalued in 2012 making him a decent end game target for astute fantasy owners.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 8th, 2012

This is the first series of our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of catcher. Some of the notable names from the list you will not see include Jesus Montero from the New York Yankees and Devin Mesoraco from the Cincinnati Reds. While most fantasy players consider Montero a catcher, he only played three games there in 2011 so unless your league has very liberal position requirements, he is likely only going to qualify at the utility spot in 2012 to start the year. For Mesoraco, while he is one of the top catching prospects in baseball, Ryan Hanigan is in the picture and manager Dusty Baker has not been known to have a long leash when it comes to playing rookies. If Mesoraco struggles out of the gate in spring training, he could be looking at a time share in 2011 so for now I have him pegged for roughly 300 at bats though that could change as we hear more news in spring training.

Here is a look at the top 20 fantasy baseball catchers for 2012 with my comments. A longer list with 2012 fantasy baseball projections are available in the 2012 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now.

1. Victor Martinez – the move to designated hitter on a more permanent basis should keep his offensive numbers afloat for another year or two. He failed to homer in 26 games when catching last season and batted .340 when in the lineup as a designated hitter.

2. Carlos Santana – he had no trouble hitting southpaws in 2011, batting .318 against them. His average against right-handed pitching was a meager .201 and that should go up a good amount in 2012.

3. Buster Posey – a broken left leg cut short his 2011 campaign, but in 162 at bats he showed his numbers from 2010 were no fluke. He figures to hit in the middle of the lineup again and with his average upside, he slightly nudges ahead of Brian McCann and Mike Napoli.

4. Brian McCann – has hit 20+ home runs in four straight seasons and holds a .286 career batting average. Runs scored have dropped the last couple of seasons with in a weaker Braves offense. As solid as they come at the catcher position.

5. Mike Napoli – Napoli was on fire the second half of 2011, hitting .383 with 18 home runs in 214 at bats. He also showed improved plate discipline with a career high 58 walks. He has a slight downside risk if the Texas Rangers decide to make a splash and sign Prince Fielder.

6. Matt Wieters – power finally came around and he showed improvement throughout the season, hitting 14 home runs in 224 at bats after the All-Star Break and he also improved his walk rate.

7. Joe Mauer – while Mauer is expected to be healthy in 2012 after suffering injuries to his leg and knee last season, his power numbers from 2009 are a definite outlier and he failed to hit a home run at home in 2011 in 157 at bats.

8. Miguel Montero – Montero bounced back from his injury shortened 2010 season and his numbers were right where they were in 2009. He delivered when batting cleanup, hitting .297 with six home runs and 28 RBI in 155 at bats.

9. Alex Avila – Avila was the biggest fantasy surprise at catcher in 2011. One thing to consider is that he skipped Triple-A so in essence he has been learning on the job in the major leagues and did show power when playing at the University of Alabama so while he may not hit 19 home runs again this season, he does have some pop in his bat.

10. J.P. Arencibia – his batting average held up the first two months of the season at over .255 but then it quickly dropped off as he batted .215 after the first half. Power is not in question, it is just a matter of if he can cut down on his strikeouts to give his average a chance.

11. Jonathan Lucroy – wore down the second half of the season which masked some of his potential. If he can put together his 2011 first half over the course of a full season, he is going return a nice profit.

12. Miguel Olivo – set a career high with 477 at bats and put up solid mid-tier catcher numbers outside of his .224 batting average. Always seem to get drafted later than he should which makes him a solid second catcher for leagues that require two of them.

13. Kurt Suzuki – batting average has dropped for three straight seasons and there are few runners to drive in hitting in the Oakland lineup. He has not been able to replicate his 2009 numbers the last two years.

14. Geovany Soto – he had 99 more at bats in 2011 but yet could not improve on any of his numbers and his batting average plummeted as he lost his strike zone discipline from 2010. His 421 at bats was only the second time he was over 400 at bats in a season in his career.

15. Yadier Molina – set career highs in four of five offensive categories in 2011. His .465 slugging percentage was the first time it was over .400 for his career. I am not banking on double digit home runs again but he is solid in all five categories.

16. Wilson Ramos – acquired by the Nationals in a deal for Matt Capps in 2010, Ramos spent all of2011 in the major leagues and flashed good power. He has some work to do on his batting average on the road where he hit .222 in 207 at bats.

17. Russell Martin – belted out 18 home runs in 2010, but batting average fell for the fourth consecutive season and he stole just one base the second half of the year.

18. Chris Ianetta – owns a career .208 batting average away from Coors Field and has struggled more against right-handed pitching making the chance of a breakout year very, very slim.

19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – his average would get a nice boost if the Red Sox sat him against left-handed pitching which he has hit just .207 against in his career.

20. John Buck – his 2010 batting average was way too high and last season’s average was a large drop but it should not have been that big of a surprise. He was okay at home with a .243 batting average but struggled on the road, hitting just .213.

Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rates Per Nine Innings – Biggest Drops in 2011

Posted by Todd Lammi on November 15th, 2011

Yesterday we talked about one of the ways to look at fantasy baseball statistics when doing a year-over-year comparison is by looking at the average or percentages instead of just the raw numbers. Sometimes the raw numbers can be misleading and a starting pitcher may have had more strikeouts simply because of an increase in the amount of innings he pitched rather than an increase in performance. Here is a look at some of the starting pitcher that saw the biggest drop in their strikeouts per nine innings rate from 2010 to 2011. For reference, strikeouts per nine innings is the mount of strikeouts multiplied by nine divided by the number of innings pitched.

1. Kevin Correia – his strikeout rate fell by 2.64 per nine innings as he got away from slider and threw more fastballs and cutters in 2011. His 4.5 k/9 rate was by far the lowest of his career.

2. Roy Oswalt – his injury problems coupled with losing velocity on his fastball for a second straight season set his k/9 rate tumbling to a career low of 6.02.

3. Jason Hammel – it could be that the calf and back injuries that he suffered in the early part of the season impacted him more than we knew. He lost 2.14 strikeouts per nine innings, ringing up just 4.97 batters per nine.

4. Jhoulys Chacin – he struck out more than expected in his rookie season at 9.04 per nine innings, so the drop to 6.96 in 2011 was not that shocking. His minor league strikeout per nine rate in his career was 7.83 in 73 games so keep your fantasy baseball projections realistic for 2012.

5. Clayton Richard – his velocity was slightly down and he threw a ton more cutters in 2011 which hurt his strikeout rate as it fell from 6.83 in 2010 to 4.79 this past season.

6. Francisco Liriano – his 2010 season was the outlier in terms of his strikeout rate the last few seasons as his control was stellar for him which led to an increase in strikeouts as he was around the plate more. In 2011, his career worst walk rate of of 5.0 per nine innings caused his strikeout rate to fall by 1.93 from the previous year.

7. Ricky Nolasco – his raw stuff has been slowly falling off as batting average against him rose for the third straight season. A little less velocity and skill translated to a 1.92 drop in strikeouts per nine innings.

8. Carlos Zambrano – his pitch selection tells the story as his fastball usage continues to decline every season. A reliance on the cutter and less split-fingered fastballs helped lead to a 1.88 drop in his k/9 rate.

9. Jered Weaver – his batting average against fell for the fourth straight season, but instead of keeping his strikeout rate up, he was more effective with his pitches which allowed him to work longer in games.

10. Joel Pineiro – his strikeout is typically low to begin with so he did not have much he could afford to lose. Rate fell by 1.6 per nine innings as he traded in fastballs for sliders.

Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rates Per Nine Innings – Biggest Jumps in 2011

Posted by Todd Lammi on November 15th, 2011

One of the ways to look at fantasy baseball statistics when doing a year-over-year comparison is by looking at the average or percentages instead of just the raw numbers. Sometimes the raw numbers can be misleading and a starting pitcher may have had more strikeouts simply because of an increase in the amount of innings he pitched rather than an increase in performance. Here is a look at some of the starting pitcher that saw the biggest jump in their strikeouts per nine innings rate from 2010 to 2011. For reference, strikeouts per nine innings is the mount of strikeouts multiplied by nine divided by the number of innings pitched.

1. Zack Greinke – the move to the National League did wonders for Greinke’s strikeout rate as he bumped it up 3.1 strikeouts per nine innings from 2010 to 2011. There is no reason he should not be able to maintain his 2011 k rate in his second season with the Milwaukee Brewers.

2. Matt Garza – another American League pitcher that saw a big jump in his whiff rate with the move to the National League. Pitching for the Chicago Cubs, Garza struck out 2.36 more batters per nine innings in 2011.

3. Jake Arrieta – after having an extremely low strikeout rate in his rookie season, Arrieta was able raise his rate by 2.35 in his second season to 7.0 strikeouts per nine. Arrieta average 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings in the minor leagues over 60 games.

4. Tommy Hanson – although he missed roughly 10-12 starts, Hanson was racking up the strikeouts when he did pitch with three double-digit strikeouts games, including 14 against the Houston Astros in June. Hanson upped his k rate by 2.15 per nine innings to 9.8 for the season which is closer to his minor league rate of 10.7.

5. Anibal Sanchez – healthy for a second consecutive season, Sanchez tacked on 45 more strikeouts in 2011. He had given us a preview of what was to come the second half of the 2010 season when he had struck out 86 in 91 2/3 innings.

6. Madison Bumgarner – another case of a second-year player making strides on the mound as Bumgarner was able to gain a little bit more velocity on his fastball and slider in 2011. He increased his k per nine rate by 1.43 to 8.4 for the season.

7. Cliff Lee – like the first two people on the list, Lee had the benefit of moving to the National League which helped to boost his strikeout rate. His 238 strikeouts was the first time in his career he struck out over 200 hitters in a season. The move to the National League gave Lee an increase or 1.36 strikeouts per nine innings.

8. CC Sabathia – struck out over 200 batters for the third time in his career as his 230 strikeouts were the most since 2008. His rate was better the second half of the season when he fanned 104 in 91 2/3 innings.

9. A.J. Burnett – Burnett averaged 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings which was a 1.19 increase over the 2010 season. Unfortunately his poor ERA and WHIP ratio don’t allow fantasy baseball owners to play him in their lineup too often.

10. Doug Fister – went from an AL-only play top a mixed league format pitcher thanks to a 1.18 increase in strikeouts which gave him 6.1 k.s’/9 which is the fringe area for American League pitchers.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 30th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for closers. I used the criteria of a minimum of 10 saves as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings.

1. Craig Kimbrel - head and shoulders above all other closers from a fantasy baseball perspective, striking out 127 in 77 innings and posting 46 saves. The heavy workload seemed to catch up to him by the end of the season as he converted 5-of-8 saves in September with a 4.76 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

2. John Axford - gets bonus points for his mustache as well as for converting 46-of-48 save chances while posting a 1.95 ERA. Was dominant the second half of the season with a 0.84 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP while converting all 23 save chances.

3. Mariano Rivera - at 41-years-old he is still going strong, posting another 40+ save season with another year of an ERA under two and a WHIP under one. Converted all 23 save chances at home with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP.

4. J.J. Putz – his numbers were pretty much in line with his 2010 season except he posted 45 saves back in the closer role. If you owned him, be thankful he held up for most of the year. He had a minuscule 0.36 ERA on the road and a 0.69 WHIP.

5. Jose Valverde – led the league in saves, going a perfect 49-for-49 but ranked 5th at closer mostly due to his higher WHIP ratio. His innings pitched total was a career high and it was the third time in his career he collected 40+ saves.

6. Drew Storen – struggled in spring training but was lights out once the regular season started. Averaged more than a strikeout per inning after the All-Star Break with 40 k’s in 29 innings. Had a more difficult time in day games where he had a 3.96 ERA and 1.20 vs. night games where he was at 2.15 and 0.93.

7. Joel Hanrahan – came into the season with 20 career saves in four seasons and posted 40 saves for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After being homer prone early in his career, he only allowed one long ball in 68 2/3 innings in 2011.

8. Jonathan Papelbon - save total went down for a third straight season but it was due to opportunity and not performance. His control rebounded from the past two seasons and his 87 strikeouts were a career high.

9. Heath Bell – notched 40+ saves for the third straight season. Only negative was the drop in his strikeout rate as he fanned less than a batter an inning.

10. Fernando Salas – he did on start the season as closer or end the year as closer, but still managed to rank 10th based on his performance in the middle part of the season. Was better at Busch Stadium where he had a 1.80 ERA and 0.69 WHIP compared to 2.79 and 1.18 on the road.

11. Francisco Cordero – despite his lack of strikeouts, he finished the season strong, converting 20-of-21 save chances the second half of the season. Had a 1.34 ERA at home and a 3.50 ERA on the road.

12. Brandon League - David Aardsma’s injury opened the door at closer and League took advantage, converting 37 of 42 saves. Loved pitching at SAFECO Field, putting up a 1.27 ERA and 0.79 ERA versus 4.85 and 1.46 on the road.

13. Ryan Madson – got a chance to be the full-time closer for most of the season for the first time in his career, which was good timing for him as he now heads into free agency. Put up an ERA of 1.64 at home vs. 3.25 on the road.

14. Sergio Santos – good strikeout numbers, but a combination of walks and home runs hiked up his ERA. Really struggled at U.S. Cellular Field with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

15. Kyle Farnsworth – posted a career year at age 35 in the closer role for the first time. His ERA and WHIP were the lowest they had been since 2005.

16. Neftali Feliz – less strikeouts and more walks in 2011 which is a bad combination for a pitcher in any type of role. Was better the second half of the year with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.

17. Jordan Walden – a solid rookie campaign with five wins and 32 saves. His ratios are going to run higher than the top tier closers until he gets his control straightened out.

18. Carlos Marmol – blew 10 saves as control continues to be his nemesis. Ratios were good the first half of the year and then he struggled after the All-Star Break with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

19. Chris Perez - strikeout rate fell off and he had problems pitching on the road, going 0-3 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

20. Juan Oviedo - formerly known as Leo Nunez, Oviedo posted a second straight season of 30 saves, but was susceptible to the long ball once again which propelled his ERA over four.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Outfielders

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 14th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. I used the criteria of 400 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. If you are a Kansas City Royals fan and you loaded up on all of their outfielders in your fantasy baseball draft, chances are you finished in the money in your league as all three outfielders ranked in the top 20.

1. Matt Kemp – a more focused Kemp bounced back from his sub par 2010 campaign and came a home run short of joining the 40-40 club. He set career highs in every fantasy category except for batting average as he hit .342 back in 2007.

2. Curtis Granderson – he had a monster season from a power standpoint, besting his career high in home runs by 11 and driving in more than 100 runs for the first time in his career. His splits between home and away were almost identical with 21 home runs at home and 20 on the road but he made a big jump in his output against left-handed pitching with 16 home runs in 191 at bats.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury – won the MLB comeback player of the year award after an injury plagued 2010 season. Traded stolen bases for home runs which I am sure most fantasy owners would not complain about. Hit 21 home runs after the All-Star break in 299 at bats compared to 11 in 361 at bats before the break.

4. Ryan Braun – if you are looking for consistency in a first round pick in the draft, look no further than Braun who delivered his third straight season of 100+ runs scored, 4th consecutive season of 100+ RBI and also hit over .300 for the fourth time in five seasons. The cherry on top was his 33 stolen bases which were 13 more than his career high.

5. Justin Upton – bounced back to his 2009 level with a few more runs scored thanks to additional at bats and a little better offense around him. Was much better at Chase Field with a .333 batting average and 20 home runs compared to .246 and 11 home runs on the road.

6. Alex Gordon – finally the Kansas City Royals just left him alone and gave him 600 at bats and he produced. Hit .329 at home with 11 stolen bases compared to .275 on the road with six steals. Made big strides against left-handed pitching, hitting .278 with eight home runs in 187 at bats.

7. Carlos Gonzalez – had another big season at Coors Field, hitting .331 with 16 home runs compared to .252 on the road. Flashed a lot of power after the All-Star Break with 13 home runs and 41 RBI in just 41 games.

8. Melky Cabrera – set career highs in every offensive category and was much better on the road with a .321 average and 12 home runs compared to .289 and six home runs at home. There is a good chance Cabrera will after a new home in 2012 arbitration eligible and could cost more than what the Royals are willing to pay after his stellar season.

9. Lance Berkman – seemed to be on the downside of his career after battling nagging injuries and the move to the outfield was not a good omen, but he ended up hitting .300 for the first time since 2008 and managed to play in 145 games.

10. Hunter Pence – put up big numbers after going to the Philadelphia Phillies that would have put him on pace for a 30+ home run and 100+ RBI season if he had been there the whole year. The only downside to the trade there was one stolen based in 54 games.

11. Jay Bruce – at bats went up for the second straight season and so did all of his numbers. Still strikes out too much to hit more than .280 ever in a season without a lot of luck involved. Hit 12 home runs in May with 33 RBI which shows you what he could do if he ever gets on a prolonged hot streak.

12. Andrew McCutchen - added seven more home runs and 33 more RBI thanks to a move lower in the batting order. Lost 10 stolen bases and his batting average dropped by 27 points as his strikeout rate jumped from 2010.

13. B.J. Upton – turned some of his 2010 doubles into home runs and added 19 more RBI than his previous season totals. His average stayed in the .240 range for the third straight season thanks to no improvement in his plate discipline.

14. Michael Bourn – set career highs in batting average and RBI to push into the top 15 rankings. His caught stealing rate picked up in Atlanta as he was caught seven times in 53 games, compared to getting thrown out seven times in 105 games with the Houston Astros.

15. Josh Hamilton – batting average came back down closer to his career number and he missed close to 40 games after missing close to 30 in 2010. If you own him, you should have David Murphy as a backup on the bench.

16. Jeff Francoeur – how is hitting coach Kevin Seitzer not the highest paid position coach in baseball after what the Royals outfielders did last season? Playing for his fourth team in four years, Francoeur almost tripled his career high in stolen bases finishing with 22 and hit 20 home runs for the second time in his career.

17. Mike Stanton – lots of power with 34 home runs and lots of strikeouts with 166 which is going to keep his batting average in the .250 to .260 range going forward. Hit 16 home runs in 214 at bats with a .271 batting average the second half of the year.

18. Carlos Beltran – turned back the clock to 2008 following two injury plagued seasons. Slugged .551 in 44 games with the San Francisco Giants which was his highest number since 2006. Hit .325 after the All-Star break with nine home runs in 194 at bats.

19. Shane Victorino - his power numbers held up from 2010 but he gave back 15 steals as he did little running after the All-Star break with just six stolen bases. Set a career high with 16 triples which helped him to the highest slugging percentage of his career at .491.

20. Adam Jones - slightly was up in three of five offensive categories as compared to a year ago. Did most of his damage at Camden Yards where he hit 19 of his 25 home runs and drove in 55 of his 83 runs.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 10th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at third base. I used the criteria of 350 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. There were a lot of under performers this season as several of the top players at the position missed time due to injury such as Alex Rodriquez, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman.

1. Jose Bautista – outperformed expectations again in 2011, hitting 43 home runs, driving in 103 and batting .302. He also walked 132 times to give him a .447 on base percentage. Was on fire the first half of the year with a .334 average and 31 home runs in 299 at bats.

2. Adrian Beltre – put up roughly the same numbers as he did in 2010 with the Boston Red Sox and did it in 102 less at bats. His batting average dropped as expected, but his 32 home runs were the most he hit since 2004. Loved hitting Rangers Ballpark where he hit .326 with 23 home runs compared to .271 and nine home runs on the road.

3. Michael Young – home runs dropped by almost 50% but he offset that by driving in over 100 runs for the second time in his career and by hitting a career high .338. Like Beltre, he benefited from his home park where he hit 10 of his 11 home runs and batted 31 points higher.

4. Mark Reynolds – bounced back to his 2009 level with a few less home runs and RBI due to less at bats. Struggled hitting at Citizens Bank Park with a .238 average compared to .297 on the road.

5. Aramis Ramirez – after two injury prone seasons, Ramirez was finally healthy in 2011. He got his batting average back up over .300 and hit 26 home runs with 93 RBI. For the fifth straight season, he hit much better at Wrigley Field, batting 50 points higher than he did on the road.

6. Evan Longoria – missed 25+ games and still managed to hit over 30 home runs and drive in 99, but a 50 point drop in batting average and a lack of stolen bases caused him to drop in the final rankings. Hit 20 home runs after the All-Star Break in 261 at bats with 57 RBI.

7. Kevin Youkilis – for the third straight season he missed 20 or more games due to injury. His .258 batting average was a career low since hitting .260 in his first season in the major leagues back in 2004. Hit .320 at Fenway Park compared to just .191 on the road.

8. Pablo Sandoval – lost a good amount of weight in the off-season and his batting average came back over .300 at .315. Missed 40 games or so due to injury and still managed to hit out 23 home runs with 70 RBI. Hit 15 home runs with 41 RBI in 231 at bats after the All-Star Break.

9. Edwin Encarnacion – did most of his damage the second half of the season, hitting .291 with 11 home runs, 36 RBI and seven stolen bases in 234 at bats. Will qualify at first base and third base in 2012.

10. Alex Rodriguez – missed one third of the season, otherwise his numbers were on pace for previous seasons except for home runs which were headed for the 22-25 range. Returned to action and hit just .191 after the All-Star Break in 68 at bats.

11. David Wright – just like A-Rod, missed 1/3 of the season and power numbers were off as well from his 2010 pace. Hit only .239 at home with five home runs in 51 games.

12. Chipper Jones - numbers were close to his 2009 season when he last had 455 at bats. Still has slight value in mixed league formats as long as you have a capable backup for the days / weeks when he misses time due to injury.

13. Danny Valencia – numbers were in line with 2010 if you had pro-rated his stats except for the batting average fell off a cliff. Right-handed pitching ate him up in 2011 as he hit only .224 in 415 at bats.

14. Martin Prado – like many other third basemen on the list, battled injuries in 2011 as his stats suffered across the board. His .260 batting average was the lowest of his career and his runs scored took a hit thanks to an anemic Atlanta Braves offense.

15. Ty Wigginton – picked up more at bats that the Colorado Rockies were expecting as he took over at third base for Ian Stewart. His eight stolen bases were the most for him since 2003.

16. Ryan Zimmerman – see A-Rod / D. Wright. Missed 1/3 of the season, power was down, but at least he supplied some batting average.

17. Scott Sizemore – provided the Oakland A’s with some offense but doesn’t do much for fantasy league owners unless it is an AL-only format.

18. Casey McGehee – unlike most of the guys ranked above him, he doesn’t have an injury to blame for his lack of performance. Average went from .285 in 2010 to a meager .223 this past season. Showed a little more power after the All-Star Break but his average never broke .280 any month of the season.

19. Chase Headley- what little value he has is tied up in his double digit stolen bases. Bumped his average up to .289 which helped him make the top 20 rankings.

20. Maicer Izturis - more of an AL-only player, but offers nice versatility by qualifying at second base and at third base plus shortstop in leagues were 10-15 games is the minimum.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 9th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at shortstop. I used the criteria of 350 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. Missing from the list that you might normally see due to their lack of at bats were players like Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Stephen Drew and rookie Dee Gordon.

1. Troy Tulowitzki – knocked in 100+ runs for the first time in his career and batted over .300 for the second season in a row to put him atop the fantasy baseball shortstop rankings. For the third season in a row he was much better the second half of the year, hitting .356 with 13 home runs in 205 at bats.

2. Asdrubal Cabrera – hit 25 home runs surpassed his career total of 18 coming into the season through 387 games. His power was pretty consistent from month-to-month, hitting 5,5,3,4,4,4, home runs. Went 12-for-13 on stolen base attempts the first part of the year before finishing 5-for-9 after the All-Star Break.

3. Jose Reyes – won the National League batting title with his .337 batting average which was the third time he hit .300 in a season. Has missed 25-30 games each of the last two seasons so don’t expect a return to his 2008 numbers when doing your fantasy baseball projections for 2012.

4. Jimmy Rollins – bounced back to his 2009 level with a few less home runs and RBI due to less at bats. Struggled hitting at Citizens Bank Park with a .238 average compared to .297 on the road.

5. Starlin Castro – powered up the second half of the season hitting eight home runs in 293 at bats versus two home runs in 381 at bats the first half of the year. Hit .307 both halves of the season, but stolen base success rate dropped after the All-Star break as he was successful on only 12 of 20 attempts.

6. Elvis Andrus – pretty much in line with 2010 except he went from zero to five home runs. Needs to improve his success rate on the base paths to crack the 40 steal mark. Was 11-for-20 on stolen base attempts the second part of the year.

7. J.J. Hardy – set a career high in home runs with 30 and tied his career high in RBI with 80 he had set in 2007. After struggling in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Hardy was finally healthy this season and the results bore that out.

8. Johnny Peralta – another shortstop who had a bounce back season in the power department as he hit more than 20 home runs for the first time since 2008. His .299 batting average was a career high, seven points higher than when he hit .292 in 2005.

9. Erick Aybar – stolen bases went up second straight year as a full-time starter and he doubled his home run output from 2010 going from five to 10. His lack of runs scored and fluctuation in his batting average keeps him out of the second tier of shortstops.

10. Emilio Bonifacio – the biggest fantasy baseball surprise at shortstop in 2011 as injuries around the diamond for the Florida Marlins allowed Bonifacio to chalk up 565 at bats. His .296 average best his season high of .261 set the previous season. Qualifies at shortstop, third base and in the outfield in 2012.

11. Alexei Ramirez – you pretty much know what you are going to get from Ramirez has his numbers have been clustered in tight range from season-to-season. The only drop for him this season was going from 13 to seven stolen bases and a 13 point drop in batting average.

12. Derek Jeter - home runs dropped for the second straight season, though if you remove his 2009 season when he hit 18 home runs which looks to be an outlier, his home run total has really been slowly trending down since 2005. Hit .327 after the All-Star break to boost up his value a little bit.

13. Ian Desmond – didn’t really take a step forward in 2011 except for in stolen bases which went from 17 to 25, but he also had an additional 59 at bats. Until he is able to improve his plate discipline, the batting average ,s always going to sit in the .25o to .260 range.

14. Yunel Escobar – put his brutal first half of 2010 in Atlanta behind him and 2011 looked close to 2009 with 28 less RBI because he hit first in the order with Toronto com,pared to 2009 when he hit second, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

15. Alcides Esocbar – value is strictly in stolen bases at this point in his career as he went from 10 steals in 2010 to 26 this past season. Was much better on the road where he hit all four of his home runs and batted .275 vs. 231 at home.

16. Cliff Pennington – hit a couple of more home runs and drove in a few more runners, but stolen bases were sliced in half which was his main source of value in mixed league formats. Hit .303 the second half of the season after hitting .235 before the All-Star break.

17. Yuniesky Betancourt – numbers were pretty much identical to what he did with the Kansas City Royals in 2010 with a few less runs scored and RBI with the move to the National League.

18. Marco Scutaro – career high batting average of .299 helped him make the top 20 cut despite having only 395 at bats. Managed two drive in only two less runs that he did in 2010 despite having 237 less at bats.

19. Alex Gonzalez – power came back to earth after hitting 23 home runs in 2010. Nothing more than an injury fill-in in mixed league formats.

20. Jason Bartlett - stolen bases came back as he ran more, but power was non-existent with two home runs in 554 at bats. Hit .224 at PETCO Park and .265 on the road.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 5th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at second base. I used the criteria of 350 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. The list dropped off pretty quickly after the top 15 as players like Ryan Raburn and Gordon Beckham could not even crack the top 20.

1. Ian Kinsler – his .319 batting average from 2008 looks like a major outlier as he has not hit higher than .286 since that time. Finished 2011 with numbers pretty close to 2009 with a few more runs scored thanks to a stacked Rangers offense. Ended the year on fire with 11 home runs and eight stolen bases while hitting .330 in September.

2. Dustin Pedroia – it was a banner year for Pedroia as he set career highs in home runs, RBI and stolen bases while hitting over .300 for the third time in his career. Pedroia crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .358 average with seven home runs in 179 at bats.

3. Robinson Cano – he scored 100+ runs for the third straight season and knocked in 118 runs while adding eight stolen bases. His career batting average now stands at .308.

4. Ben Zobrist – bounced back from his disappointing 2010 season as he fell a stolen base short of the 20-20 club. Really struggled with his batting average at home, hitting .221 vs. .31 on the road.

5. Brandon Phillips – hit .300 for the first time in his career and his RBI were up from 2010 with more time spent hitting fourth in the batting order. Managed only four home runs on the road in 327 at bats.

6. Ryan Roberts – the biggest surprise of the season at second base as he posted 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 482 at bats. Hit .274 in his minor league career so don’t expect much upside to his batting average in 2011.

7. Howie Kendrick – amazingly has now put together two healthy seasons in a row and posted a career high with 86 runs scored and 18 home runs. Hit 123 home runs on the road where he it .299 vs. 270 at home.

8. Dan Uggla – the power numbers were there by the end of the season but the batting average never fully recovered from the hole he dug himself into the first half of the year. Uggla hit 21 home runs while hitting .296 after the All-Star break in 260 at bats.

9. Danny Espinosa – turned in a solid rookie campaign but really struggled the second half of the season, hitting .227 with five home runs and a paltry 14 RBI in 247 at bats. Hit .256 at Nationals Park and .216 on the road.

10. Neil Walker – had 170 more at bats in 2011 but could not make any increase to his home run total from the previous season. Added nine stolen bases which gave him a slight boost in value.

11. Kelly Johnson – never quite got untracked at the plate, hitting .209 for the Arizona Diamondbacks before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays where he hit .270 in 33 games. Expect a season in 2012 between the numbers from the last two seasons.

12. Rickie Weeks - missed time with an injury again which cut his stats by one third. Hit .293 at Miller Park and .249 on the road.

13. Aaron Hill – the 21 stolen bases came out of nowhere as he entered the season with only 23 for his career. That was the only saving grace to his season after managing only eight home runs, which was a far cry from the 26 he hit in 2010. Hit .315 with the Diamondbacks in 124 at bats with just two home runs.

14. Jemile Weeks – a nice rookie campaign with a .303 batting average in 406 at bats to go with 22 stolen bases. Hit both of his home runs in September while batting .323 for the month.

15. Chase Utley – turns 33 in December and has played less than 120 games the last two seasons. Had only 27 less at bats from 2010 but numbers were significantly down outside of stolen bases.

16. Orlando Hudson – batting average fell for the third straight season, but his value was saved by his career high 19 stolen bases, nine of which came in April.

17. Daniel Murphy – value driven by his .320 bating average as his season ended early due to injury at 391 at bats. Will qualify at first base, second base and third base in 2012.

18. Robert Andino – filled in for the injured Brian Roberts and contributed 13 stolen bases, but his value his more in AL-only leagues than in mixed formats.

19. Mark Ellis – performed much better after going to Colorado where he hit .274 in 263 at bats with six home run and stole seven bases. Will be looking for a new home in 2012 as a free agent.

20. Darwin Barney - hit .306 the first half of the season and then came back down to earth after the All-Star break, batting .238 in 235 at bats.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 4th, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at first base. I used the criteria of 400 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings. The top four players I had ranked within percentage points of each other so depending on what type of ranking system you use, the order could be flipped around many different ways.

1. Albert Pujols – failed to hit over .300 for the first time in his career although .299 is as close as you can get. Also failed to drive in 100 runs for the first time in a season as well, although he fell just one RBI short of that mark. The big question mark will be which team he is playing for in 2012 though that should not have any impact on his fantasy baseball performance.

2. Prince Fielder – bounced back to his 2009 level just in time for free agency in the winter. He walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, but he is going to miss hitting at Miller Park where he batted .326 this season and hit 24 of his 38 home runs.

3. Miguel Cabrera -scored more than 100 runs for the second straight season and walked more than 100 times for the first time in his career giving him a .448 on base percentage for the season. Has hit .320 or higher in six of his last seven seasons and batted .385 after the All-Star break.

4. Adrian Gonzalez – well at least one free agent signing worked out for the Boston Red Sox this season. Gonzalez set a career high in batting average at .338 while setting a career high in runs scored at 108. He also added 45 doubles, 27 home runs and 117 RBI. The move from PETCO Park did not help his home run total as he managed just 10 long balls at Fenway Park.

5. Joey Votto – it was a solid season for Votto as he was just under his numbers from 2010 in all categories. Picked up his power toward the end of the season, hitting 15 home runs in July and August.

6. Mark Teixeira -will always score runs and drive guys in playing for the Yankees and the power was nice at close to 40 home runs. But a batting average drop for the third straight season pushes him out of the top tier and into the next group with Ryan Howard.

7. Ryan Howard – was pretty much the same player as he was in 2010. Gone seem to be the days of 100+ runs scored and 40+ home runs. Turns 32 in November so his best days are likely behind him. Still a solid second tier first basemen though.

8. Paul Konerko – still going strong at age 35 as he hit over .300 for the second straight season. Home runs came back down as expected which impacted his runs scored total as well as a weaker White Sox lineup.

9. Michael Morse – if you pro-rate his numbers from 2010 he was pretty much as forecasted in 2011 with a higher than expected batting average at .303. Did most of his damage on the road where he hit 20 of his 31 home runs. Will qualify at first base and in the outfield in 2012.

10. Mark Reynolds – the move to the American League left him with similar results to what we saw in 2010. Lots of home runs, lots of strikeouts and a low batting average. Batting average was much better on the road (.264) than at Camden Yards where he hit only .176.

11. Mark Trumbo – took advantage of Kendrys Morales being out of action and never looked back, posting 29 home runs and 87 RBI. Stole eight of his nine bases the first half of the season and still has some work to do on his plate discipline with 25 walks and 120 strikeouts.

12. Billy Butler -was closer to his 2009 season which was a good thing, but still doesn’t score enough runs or hit enough home runs to justify where he gets picked in fantasy drafts. Each year people keep thinking this is the year he breaks out and hits 30 bombs but so far it has not happened.

13. Eric Hosmer – a very nice rookie campaign that saw him improve as the season wore on. Hit .313 after the All-Star break with 11 home runs, 44 RBI and nine stolen bases.

14. Carlos Pena – stat line was pretty close to what he posted the year before in Tampa Bay. Now a free agent, he will hope to catch on a starting first baseman with a team that misses out on Pujols or Fielder.

15. Carlos Lee – batting average rebounded a little bit, but his home run total dropped for the fourth year in a row. Has scored under 70 runs for four consecutive seasons as well and that does not figure to change with the Astros lineup in 2012. Will be in the final year of his contract next season at age 36.

16. Michael Cuddyer -hit 20 home runs for the third time in his career and hit double digit steals for the first time in a season. His versatility is going to make him a wanted man on the free agent market and he should land a decent szied contract this winter. Played 17 games at second base so he has extra value in leagues where the position minimum is 10 or 15 games.

17. Freddie Freeman – solid rookie season and showed a little bit more power than many anticipated. Hung tough against left-handed pitching with seven home runs in 186 at bats.

18. Adam Lind – batting average does not seem likely to rebound to anything close to his 2008 season until he is able to improve his plate discipline. Fell apart the second half of the season, batting just .197 in 239 at bats.

19. Gaby Sanchez – did not take a step forward in 2011 as he had a mirror season of 2010 with identical at bats, runs scored and home runs. Hit just .225 after the All-Star Break with six home runs in 231 at bats.

20. Kevin Youkilis- fell short of 500 at bats for the third straight season and hit the lowest mark of his career, batting .258. Turns 33 in March so rank him accordingly to his age and injury history.

2011 Final Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on October 3rd, 2011

Here is a look at the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings at catcher. I used the criteria of 250 at bats as the threshold for the player pool in determining the final rankings so players like Buster Posey will not be included.

1. Mike Napoli – the steal of the off-season for the Texas Rangers when they acquired Napoli from the Los Angeles Angels for relief pitcher Frank Francisco. The power was as expected but the .320 batting average is more fluky than the norm, powered by a .383 batting average in the second half of the season.

2. Carlos Santana -it was a very positive season for Santana in his first full season as catcher in Cleveland outside of the .239 batting average. He led all catchers in runs scored with 84 and was second to Napoli in home runs with 27. Hit .318 against left-handed pitching but just .201 against right0handers.

3. Victor Martinez -Martinez seemed to thrive in his move to Detroit and to the designated hitter role on a more permanent basis, knocking in over 100 runs for the third time in his career. The 12 home runs were the lowest in his career since he hit 16 in 2006.

4. Alex Avila -the biggest surprise at catcher in 2011, Avila hit .295 with 19 home runs and 82 RBI. His two halves of the season were pretty consistent, hitting .286 with 10 home runs and 46 RBI in 245 at bats before the All-Star break and then hit .306 with 9 home runs and 36 RBI in 219 at bats after the break.

5. Miguel Montero -after missing time with injury in 2010, Montero came right back to his 2009 levels in terms of performance. He still struggles against southpaws, hitting just .195 in 113 at bats with only one home run.

6. Matt Wieters -he is getting closer to the type of season many people have been expecting from him, hitting 22 home runs with 68 RBI. He finished the season strong with 12 home runs the last two months of the year.

7. Brian McCann -fourth straight season of 20+ home runs. The only thing to nitpick would be his runs scored which has slowly been trending down the last few years.

8. Russell Martin -Martin’s 18 home runs were the second most of his career, but his batting average declined for a third straight season and the stolen bases have yet to come back to double digits. He did the majority of damage in two months with seven home runs in August and six in April.

9. Yadier Molina -Molina set a career high, hitting double digits for the first time with 14 home runs to go with 65 RBI. He also hit over .300 for the second time in his career and scored 50+ runs for the first time in a season.

10. J.P. Arencibia -not a bad rookie campaign for Arencibia as he flashed lots of power with 23 home runs and also chalked up 133 strikeouts. The .219 batting average is a killer though for a fantasy baseball team.

11. Miquel Olivo – Olivo’s stats lined up pretty close to Arencibia’s and his average is always going to float in the low .200′s as well with his 20 walk to 140 strikeout ratio.

12. Chris Iannetta -Iannetta made some small gains in 2011 with a jump in his walk rate and six stolen bases in nine attempts. Hit better when batting seventh where he hit .286 compared to .229 when batting in front of the pitcher.

13. Jarrod Saltalamacchia -some power and runs scored, but lack of discipline at the plate puts him in that sub .240 range for batting average.

14. Wilson Ramos -Ramos will be moving up several spots on the list when it comes time for the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings as he should see another 75 at bats or so than what he received in 2011. He put together a solid rookie season and now needs to improve his numbers on the road where he hit .222 compared to .319 at Nationals Park.

15. Jonathan Lucroy -another guy who should be moving a couple of spots in 2012. He needs to improve his plate discipline after just 29 walks against 99 strikeouts in 430 at bats.

16. Geovany Soto -his power numbers were the same as they were in 2010 except he had an additional 100 at bats so it should have been better. His walk rate was down and his strikeouts were up in 2011 which does not bode well for 2012.

17. Kurt Suzuki -another catcher who seems to trending in the wrong direction, as he managed only 44 RBI, exactly half of what he had in 2009 and his batting average fell for a third straight season.

18. John Buck -his batting average came back down to earth but he walked a little bit more so his on base percentage was up for the second year in a row.

19. Carlos Ruiz – his .283 batting average gives him a little boost as he is just barely average in the other three categories.

20. A.J. Pierzynski – his batting average stayed near his career number, but runs scored dropped for the third straight season and home runs were under double digits for the second year in a row.

2011 Fantasy Baseball – American League Rookie Projections

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 31st, 2011

Now that major league baseball rosters are close to being finalized, here is a look at some of the top 2011 American League rookies in fantasy baseball this season and what type of stats they should accumulate to help your fantasy baseball team.

American League:

1. Jeremy Hellickson – the Tampa Bay Rays should feel little pain from trading away Matt Garza with Hellickson ready to step into the rotation and replace him. Hellickson had a 2.71 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his minor league career with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. His innings were limited in spring training due to a trained hamstring, but he is good to go for the regular season.

Projection: 12 wins, 169 strikeouts, 3.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

2. Michael Pineda – I expect Pineda to be pretty close to Hellickson in terms of production, with a win or two less. The only hesitancy with Pineda as with all young pitchers is being susceptible to arm injuries. He missed time due to a sore elbow in 2009 so that is a minor thing to watch. He was strong in spring with a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings with 15 strikeouts.

Projection: 11 wins, 158 strikeouts, 3.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

3. Tsuyoshi Nishioka – should be a solid player at second base for the Minnesota Twins, though he is not a typical “rookie” after coming over from Japan at age 26. He should provide a decent batting average with some steals thrown in giving him a little bit of value in 15 team mixed leagues. Nishioka hit .345 in spring with no home runs and three stolen bases in 58 at bats.

Projection: .272 avg., 72 runs, 8 home runs, 44 RBI, 16 steals

4. Kyle Drabek - at a level below the top two pitchers on this list, Drabek should have some value in AL only leagues and as a two start pitcher in deeper mixed leagues depending on the opponent. Drabek had a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings in spring training with only one walk allowed and 14 strikeouts. Also keep in mind that he has spent no time at Triple-A so he is going to be doing some learning on the job.

Projection: 11 wins, 128 strikeouts, 4.37 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

5. Jake McGee – while the Tampa Rays keep insisting they have multiple closers to pick from, McGee has the best arm of the bunch and should fully take the job over at some point. He had a 0.75 ERA in 12 spring innings with seven strikeouts.

Projection: 20 saves, 65 strikeouts, 3.34 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

6. Ivan Nova – claimed the 4th starter job for the New York Yankees, but is just an AL only play with limited strikeouts and pitching in the American League East. Nova had a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings with nine strikeouts this spring.

Projection: 10 wins, 111 strikeouts, 4.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

7. J.P. Arencibia – his potential is limited catching only three of the five starters in the rotation to start the year, but his position makes him a more attractive target than if he were playing somewhere else on the diamond. Batting average will likely be low, but he can hit 10-15 home runs even getting around 300 bats for the season. Arencibia struggled in spring hitting only .161 with one home run and five RBI.

Projection: .233 avg., 36 runs, 13 home runs, 41 RBI

8. Brent Morel – American League only format play at this point with limited power and at bats at risk to Mark Teahen at third base for the Chicago White Sox. Morel hit .303 this spring with no home runs, five RBI and two stolen bases.

Projection: .271 avg., 51 runs, 11 home runs, 53 RBI, 3 steals