Archive for the ‘ADP’ Category

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 10th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the first article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for catchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

I have played in the NFBC before and it has some of the best fantasy baseball owners in the industry so I find the ADP numbers to be much more accurate.  The NFBC has no trade leagues with 15 owners per league and standard fantasy baseball categories. The only difference in regards to roster size compared to some other fantasy baseball leagues is the use of two catchers.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Also, position scarcity becomes much greater the larger your fantasy baseball league is. So in a 15 team league, the value of catcher is going to be much higher than in a 10 team league because there are more options to pick from. However, this does not mean you should pass on a catcher for a similar ranked outfielder even in a 10 team league. While there are many ways to win a fantasy baseball league, having the top player at a weak position regardless of league size is going to give you a step up on your competition.

If you agree with my rankings, or even if you use the grid and replace them with your own, it is easy to quickly get a look at where there is potential value. For instance in the chart below, Chris Ianetta has an ADP of 5 rounds higher than A.J. Pierzynski. With the possibility of a time share in Colorado and the downside to average the Ianetta brings, I don’t see there being a five round gap in value there.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Joe Mauer 14 2 2 1 14
2 Victor Martinez 25 3 1 2 10
3 Brian McCann 43 4 7 3 13
4 Matt Wieters 108 9 12 8 3
5 Jorge Posada 121 11 1 9 1
6 Geovany Soto 131 11 11 9 11
7 Miguel Montero 139 12 7 10 4
8 Russell Martin 147 13 3 10 12
9 Kurt Suzuki 151 13 7 11 1
10 Bengie Molina 159 14 3 11 9
11 Mike Napoli 172 15 4 12 7
12 Ryan Doumit 191 16 11 13 11
13 A.J. Pierzynski 235 20 7 16 10
14 Chris Iannetta 173 15 5 12 8
15 Yadier Molina 222 19 6 15 12
16 Carlos Ruiz 281 24 5 19 11
17 John Baker 280 24 4 19 10
18 Nick Hundley 336 28 12 23 6
19 Kelly Shoppach 337 29 1 23 7
20 Ramon Hernandez 334 28 10 23 4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be first basemen.

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Fantasy Baseball – May Pitcher Rankings

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 2nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Instead of using some complicated formula to review May statistics, here is a breakdown of the numbers for the month sorted by category, for pitchers.

# PLAYER TEAM IP
1 Roy Halladay TOR 46
1 Zack Greinke KAN 46
3 CC Sabathia NYY 45.2
4 Carl Pavano CLE 45
5 Jered Weaver LAA 43
5 Johnny Cueto CIN 43
7 Adam Wainwright STL 42.2
8 Jason Marquis COL 42.1
8 Mark Buehrle CHW 42.1
8 Jake Peavy SDG 42.1
8 Edwin Jackson DET 42.1
8 Zach Duke PIT 42.1
13 Cliff Lee CLE 42
14 Justin Verlander DET 41.1
15 Derek Lowe ATL 40.2
15 Ted Lilly CHC 40.2
15 Matt Garza TAM 40.2
15 Ubaldo Jimenez COL 40.2
19 Barry Zito SFO 40.1
19 Matt Cain SFO 40.1

# PLAYER TEAM SO
1 Justin Verlander DET 56
2 Jake Peavy SDG 52
3 Javier Vazquez ATL 44
3 Zack Greinke KAN 44
5 Johan Santana NYM 42
5 Chad Billingsley LAD 42
7 Jon Lester BOS 41
7 Tim Lincecum SFO 41
9 Aaron Harang CIN 40
10 J. Zimmermann WAS 39
11 CC Sabathia NYY 37
11 Jorge De La Rosa COL 37
11 Max Scherzer ARI 37
14 Roy Halladay TOR 36
14 Ted Lilly CHC 36
14 Edwin Jackson DET 36
14 Felix Hernandez SEA 36
17 Dan Haren ARI 35
17 Cole Hamels PHI 35
17 Wandy Rodriguez HOU 35
17 James Shields TAM 35

# PLAYER TEAM Wins
1 Carl Pavano CLE 5
1 Justin Verlander DET 5
1 Rick Porcello DET 5
1 Tim Wakefield BOS 5
5 Derek Lowe ATL 4
5 Roy Halladay TOR 4
5 Ted Lilly CHC 4
5 Johan Santana NYM 4
5 Jason Marquis COL 4
5 Bronson Arroyo CIN 4
5 CC Sabathia NYY 4
5 Todd Wellemeyer STL 4
5 Edwin Jackson DET 4
5 John Maine NYM 4
5 Matt Cain SFO 4
5 Kevin Slowey MIN 4
5 Matt Palmer LAA 4
5 Randy Johnson SFO 4
19 Andy Pettitte NYY 3
19 Livan Hernandez NYM 3

# Player Team WHIP
1 Jake Peavy SDG 0.87
2 Justin Verlander DET 0.90
3 Zack Greinke KC 0.91
4 Johnny Cueto CIN 0.95
4 Jered Weaver LAA 0.95
6 CC Sabathia NYY 0.96
7 Scott Feldman TEX 1.01
8 Roy Halladay TOR 1.04
8 Edwin Jackson DET 1.04
8 Josh Outman OAK 1.04
11 Mark Buehrle CHW 1.06
11 Dan Haren ARI 1.06
11 Rick Porcello DET 1.06
14 Ted Lilly CHC 1.08
14 Brian Tallet TOR 1.08
16 Matt Palmer LAA 1.10
16 Javier Vazquez ATL 1.10
18 Scott Baker MIN 1.11
18 Zach Duke PIT 1.11
20 Tim Lincecum SFO 1.12

# Player Team ERA
1 Rick Porcello DET 1.50
2 Justin Verlander DET 1.52
3 Zack Greinke KC 1.57
4 Roy Halladay TOR 1.76
5 Jake Peavy SDG 2.13
6 Jered Weaver LAA 2.30
7 Edwin Jackson DET 2.34
8 Randy Wolf LAD 2.35
9 Josh Beckett BOS 2.38
10 Johan Santana NYM 2.43
11 Matt Cain SF 2.45
11 Josh Outman OAK 2.45
13 Mark Buehrle CHW 2.55
14 CC Sabathia NYY 2.56
15 Clayton Kershaw LAD 2.57
15 Cliff Lee CLE 2.57
17 Scott Feldman TEX 2.70
17 Livan Hernandez NYM 2.70
19 Johnny Cueto CIN 2.72
19 Josh Johnson FLA 2.72

RK PLAYER TEAM SV SO
1 Heath Bell SDG 15 26
2 F. Cordero CIN 14 22
2 F. Rodriguez NYM 14 27
4 Trevor Hoffman MIL 13 14
4 Ryan Franklin STL 13 16
4 Brian Fuentes LAA 13 19
4 Brad Lidge PHI 13 26
4 J. Papelbon BOS 13 28
9 Bobby Jenks CHW 12 15
9 Chad Qualls ARI 12 23
9 Matt Capps PIT 12 12
9 Brian Wilson SFO 12 23
13 Mariano Rivera NYY 11 26
13 Frank Francisco TEX 11 19
13 George Sherrill BAL 11 21
13 Jonathan Broxton LAD 11 39
17 Joe Nathan MIN 10 22
17 Fernando Rodney DET 10 17
17 Matt Lindstrom FLA 10 22
20 Kerry Wood CLE 8 21

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Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Monday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 25th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

It was a painful loss for the Tampa Bay Rays, as the blew a 10-0 lead in an 11-10 loss to the Cleveland Indians. The blown lead was the largest in team history.  The Rays used four relievers in the ninth inning, the last one being Jason Isringhausen, but none of them could stop the bleeding as the Indians rallied for seven runs to pull out the come from behind win. Rookie David Price, getting the start for the injured Scott Kazmir, displayed the same wildness that had been plaguing him in the minor leagues, as he walked five and allowed four hits in 3 1/3 innings while throwing 100 pitches. He did manage to strike out six and only allowed two runs, but his high pitch count limited his innings. Ryan Garko hit two home runs for the Indians and drove in five runs to pace the Tribe’s offense. In other fantasy baseball happenings around the diamond on Monday…

Hitters:

Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira continue to lead the surging New York Yankees offense, as the team pounded out 19 hits in an 11-1 win over the Texas Rangers. A-Rod went 5 for 5 with 4 RBI and Teixeira went 2 for 4 with three runs scored and two RBI.

Who needs Manny Ramirez? The Los Angeles Dodgers pounded out 19 hits en route to a 16-6 pasting of the Colorado Rockies. Matt Kemp, Juan Castro and Juan Pierre each knocked in three runs.

The Chicago White Sox made short work of Ervin Santana, banging out 23 hits on their way to a 17-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Jermaine Dye (12), Jim Thome (8) and Paul Konerko (7) all went deep for the White Sox. The lone bright spot for the Angles was the return of Vladimir Guerrero to the line up.

Nelson Cruz hit his 12th home run of the year for the lone score for the Rangers. Cruz has homered 5 times in his last six games while driving in 10 runs. He has now collected an RBI in six consecutive games.

Ryan Howard hit two home runs and drove in three to provide all the offense for the Philadelphia Phillies in a 5-3 loss to the Florida Marlins. Howard now has 12 home runs on the season and 33 RBI.

Jonny Gomes went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI for the Cincinnati Reds in their 8-5 win over the Houston Astros. Gomes is a good pickup in National League only leagues as he should see playing time against left-handed starters.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 17th home run of the season in the San Diego Padres 9-7 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks in 10 innings. Scott Hairston went 3 for 5 and is now batting .333. With the trade of Jody Gerut to Milwaukee earlier in the week, Hairston should be someone to target if he is still on the waiver wire in your fantasy baseball league.

It took him 100 at bats but Travis Ishikawa finally hit his first home run of the season in the San Francisco Giants 8-2 win over the Atlanta Braves. Ishikawa went 4 for 4 and drove in three runs. He is going to need more games like that if he does not want to lose at bats to recent call up Jesus Guzman.

Freddy Sanchez went 6 for 6 and scored four times to lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to a 10-8 win over the Chicago Cubs. Sanchez drove in three runs and hit his fourth home run of the season.

Pitchers:

Justin Verlander pitched seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts in a 13-1 win over the Kansas City Royals. It marked the sixth consecutive game that Verlander has notched eight or more strikeouts. The outing was the most economical Verlander has been with his pitches all season, making it through seven innings on 96 pitches.

Jeremy Guthrie allowed one run in seven innings with four strikeouts to pitch the Baltimore Orioles past the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1. Guthrie’s biggest problem this season has been the home run, allowing 11 in 53 2/3 innings before his start on Monday.

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 1-0 in 10 innings on a RBI single by Bill Hall. Both starting pitchers were superb in the game, with Chris Carpenter tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts for the Cardinals, and Yovani Gallardo hurling eight shutout innings for the Brewers with six strikeouts.

Phil Hughes scattered three hits in eight shutout innings to pick up his third win of the season. Hughes struck out six while allowing only one walk to lower his ERA to 5.16.

Brett Anderson allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts to gain his second win of the season. It marks the second consecutive good start for the rookie who may be on the verge of turning things around for good.

Jonathan Sanchez, subject to some trade rumors earlier in the week, allowed two runs in five innings with six strikeouts to earn his second win of the year.

John Maine allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts to get his fourth win of the season.  Despite his 4.18 ERA he conitunes to be bothered by walks. With a 30 to 36 walk to strikeout ratio, Maine is on pace for 108 walks this season which would be a career high.

Closers:

Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 12th save of the season, but it marked back-to-back games that he surrendered two runs and a home run.

Francisco Rodriguez (back spasms) returned to action for the New York Mets and picked up his 13th save of the season.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With the final two weekends of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, let’s take a look at the latest movers for average draft position, using the results from Mock Draft Central for the NFBC scoring system (which is 15 team leagues) for the previous week.

James McDonald (+91) – in the running for the 5th starter position for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Don’t know why the Dodgers wasted time having him pitch in relief in spring and are just now trying to stretch him out. Gets overlooked by scouts because he does not have dominating stuff, but he always seems to get the job done.

Brett Anderson / Trevor Cahill (+63/+61) – I wrote about both of these players in one of my earlier posts about rookies who would eventually have a job this season. With Gio Gonzalez recently sent down and Justin Duchscherer starting the season on the disabled list, it looks like Cahill and Anderson coudl slot into the number four and five spots in the rotation.

Leo Nunez (+50) – With Matt Lindstrom bothered by a strained rotator cuff, Nunez might have a chance to grab some saves in the early the season for the Flordia Marlins. If you own Lindstrom in a league, you should look to grab Nunez as a handcuff.

Brett Gardner (+43) – Gardner seems to be moving up the draft board every weel and the last wee has been no exception. The problem for him is Melky Cabrera has caught fire the last few weeks of spring training so the decision could go down to the final week. There is still a chance that Cabrera gets traded to someone in need of an outfielder at some point this year, regardless of where he starts the season for the New York Yankees.

Jordan Zimmerman (+42) – he is a sleeper no more, now it will take a  pick in the 15-17th round to get him in a 14-15 team mixed draft league. He starts the season as the number five starter for the Washington Nationals, but in all likelihood he will be the best pitcher by the end of the season, if he is not already.

Chris Getz (+42) – has been named the starting second basemen for the Chicago White Sox and his value get could a little bit more of a boost if he hits in the top two spots in the batting lineup as he has been the last few games. He is up to four stolen bases so far in spring.

Jordan Schafer (+38) – Schafer is hitting close to .400 this spring with five stolen bases and seems to have pulled ahead of Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson the starting center field job with the Atlanta Braves. Schafer ended last year in AA so there is always the possiblity the Braves let him start the year in AAA if they feel his defense his below Blanco’s and Anderson’s.

Micah Owings (+35) - Owings seems to have locked up the fifth starter position with the Cincinatti Reds. He is a good late round pick if you are looking for strikeouts.

Emilio Bonifacio (+33) – Bonifacio has had a huge couple of games in spring training recently so people seem to be using that as a reason to draft him. Based on the current Florida Marlins roster however, he does not have a starting job, so if he makes the team, it will be as a utility man.

Ivan Rodriguez (+28) – recently signed by the Houston Astros, Rodriguez looks like he will start the season batting second. He should be able to squueze out another good season at age 37 and is one of the few sources for steals from the catcher position.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Closer ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for closers and relief pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 J. Papelbon 59 Dan Wheeler 295
2 Brad Lidge 67 Grant Balfour 297
3 Joe Nathan 79 Rafael Perez 297
4 F. Rodriguez 81 Hong-Chih Kuo 297
5 Mariano Rivera 87 Kevin Gregg 307
6 Joakim Soria 95 C.J. Wilson 313
7 Bobby Jenks 106 Jon Rauch 313
8 Jose Valverde 113 Joel Zumaya 314
9 J. Broxton 117 Rafael Soriano 316
10 Brian Fuentes 118 Takashi Saito 318
11 Carlos Marmol 125 Jeff Samardzija 319
12 B.J. Ryan 126 Ryan Franklin 323
13 Matt Capps 144 F. Rodney 327
14 F. Cordero 148 Hideki Okajima 332
15 Kerry Wood 150 M. Kobayashi 334
16 Brian Wilson 162 Scot Shields 338
17 Mike Gonzalez 168 J. Masterson 342
18 Heath Bell 169 Miguel Batista 345
19 Matt Lindstrom 173 Jensen Lewis 349
20 Trevor Hoffman 184 Mark Lowe 349
21 Chad Qualls 190 Scott Linebrink 351
22 Joey Devine 191 J. Isringhausen 358
23 Huston Street 197 Octavio Dotel 365
24 Joel Hanrahan 200 Braden Looper 367
25 Frank Francisco 212 M. Delcarmen 368
26 Brandon Lyon 227 Jeremy Accardo 369
27 Brad Ziegler 232 Tyler Walker 373
28 Chris Perez 248 Tony Pena 377
29 J.J. Putz 253 Eric Gagne 378
30 George Sherrill 257 R. Betancourt 379
31 Troy Percival 258 Scott Downs 388
32 Chris Ray 291 Leo Nunez 392
33 Manny Corpas 291 Chad Cordero 392
34 Jason Motte 293 Aaron Heilman 398
35 Dan Wheeler 295 Juan Cruz 411
36 Grant Balfour 297 Ryan Madson 412
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 Johan Santana 22 Gavin Floyd 171 T. Wellemeyer 309
2 Tim Lincecum 28 Matt Garza 176 David Bush 310
3 CC Sabathia 37 Scott Baker 181 Jamie Moyer 310
4 Cole Hamels 45 Erik Bedard 185 Taylor Buchholz 311
5 Jake Peavy 48 Ted Lilly 191 Ian Snell 312
6 Brandon Webb 50 C. Kershaw 194 Brad Penny 312
7 Roy Halladay 50 Aaron Cook 197 Anibal Sanchez 312
8 Dan Haren 59 Joe Saunders 197 Joe Blanton 314
9 F. Liriano 72 Jair Jurrjens 203 Ben Sheets 315
10 Josh Beckett 75 Johnny Cueto 206 Clay Buchholz 316
11 Roy Oswalt 78 Gil Meche 216 Anthony Reyes 317
12 Cliff Lee 78 C. Wang 216 Sean Marshall 317
13 James Shields 84 Jered Weaver 216 Gio Gonzalez 317
14 Chad Billingsley 84 J. Duchscherer 220 Glen Perkins 320
15 Ervin Santana 88 Mike Pelfrey 233 Barry Zito 320
16 Scott Kazmir 93 W. Rodriguez 236 J. Bonderman 321
17 John Lackey 94 Andy Pettitte 237 Sean Gallagher 321
18 Felix Hernandez 95 Jon. Sanchez 239 Kyle Davies 336
19 A.J. Burnett 105 John Maine 241 Tim Redding 336
20 Jon Lester 105 Scott Olsen 245 Homer Bailey 336
21 D. Matsuzaka 113 Jesse Litsch 245 Andrew Miller 337
22 Yovani Gallardo 116 Hiroki Kuroda 249 D. McGowan 338
23 E. Volquez 116 Oliver Perez 258 John Lannan 338
24 C. Zambrano 125 Jeremy Guthrie 263 J.P. Howell 339
25 Rich Harden 126 Chris Carpenter 264 Greg Smith 339
26 Ricky Nolasco 126 Ubaldo Jimenez 264 Edwin Jackson 340
27 Matt Cain 127 A. Galarraga 271 Pedro Martinez 340
28 Justin Verlander 132 John Smoltz 274 Rich Hill 341
29 Javier Vazquez 132 Manny Parra 276 J. de la Rosa 346
30 A. Wainwright 136 K. Kawakami 278 Shaun Marcum 351
31 Zack Greinke 138 Paul Maholm 284 Tim Wakefield 355
32 Brett Myers 143 Koji Uehara 288 Trevor Cahill 357
33 Chris Young 151 F. Carmona 289 Tim Hudson 362
34 Josh Johnson 153 Mark Buehrle 290 Dana Eveland 362
35 Randy Johnson 157 A. Sonnanstine 292 Shawn Hill 365
36 John Danks 158 Philip Hughes 297 Jon Garland 366
37 Derek Lowe 161 Kyle Lohse 303 Dallas Braden 386
38 Ryan Dempster 164 Kelvim Escobar 305 Brian Bannister 391
39 Aaron Harang 166 Bronson Arroyo 307 Micah Owings 394
40 Kevin Slowey 169 Randy Wolf 308 Kevin Millwood 400
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 16th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for outfielders.

Rank Outfield ADP Outfield ADP Outfield ADP
1 Grady Sizemore 6 Xavier Nady 157 Josh Willingham 304
2 Ryan Braun 7 Milton Bradley 158 Josh Anderson 304
3 Josh Hamilton 12 Pat Burrell 158 Jack Cust 304
4 Matt Holliday 16 Eric Byrnes 173 Chase Headley 304
5 B.J. Upton 19 Conor Jackson 176 Daniel Murphy 305
6 Carlos Beltran 21 Adam Jones 185 Ken Griffey 305
7 Manny Ramirez 22 Justin Upton 192 Felix Pie 308
8 Carlos Lee 23 Hideki Matsui 196 Nyjer Morgan 309
9 Alfonso Soriano 24 Jeremy Hermida 197 Ben Francisco 309
10 Carl Crawford 27 Denard Span 200 G. Anderson 310
11 Ichiro Suzuki 28 Rick Ankiel 208 Colby Rasmus 312
12 Nick Markakis 33 Nick Swisher 208 K. Fukudome 312
13 Matt Kemp 33 Fred Lewis 222 Jody Gerut 313
14 Jason Bay 35 Elijah Dukes 226 Jerry Owens 316
15 Alex Rios 38 Coco Crisp 227 Gary Matthews 317
16 Carlos Quentin 39 Delmon Young 227 Chris Duncan 317
17 Vlad Guerrero 42 C. Maybin 231 F. Gutierrez 317
18 C. Granderson 48 Adam Lind 233 Ryan Sweeney 322
19 Shane Victorino 49 Luke Scott 234 Matt Joyce 329
20 Jacoby Ellsbury 51 Carlos Gomez 240 Jerry Hairston 331
21 Nate McLouth 54 Ryan Church 247 Matt LaPorta 335
22 Corey Hart 55 Jeff Francoeur 248 Marcus Thames 339
23 Bobby Abreu 61 Shin-Soo Choo 250 Brian Giles 340
24 M. Ordonez 66 David DeJesus 256 Carlos Gonzalez 341
25 Adam Dunn 68 Juan Pierre 256 Brett Gardner 343
26 Hunter Pence 72 Randy Winn 266 Dexter Fowler 346
27 Jermaine Dye 92 Mike Cameron 268 Melky Cabrera 348
28 Ryan Ludwick 92 M. Cuddyer 275 Andruw Jones 359
29 Jay Bruce 94 Ryan Spilborghs 276 A. McCutchen 363
30 Torii Hunter 103 J.D. Drew 278 Mark Teahen 365
31 Chris Young 103 Michael Bourn 279 Eric Hinske 367
32 Johnny Damon 109 Jose Guillen 283 Rocco Baldelli 369
33 Andre Ethier 109 Jason Kubel 283 Matt Diaz 370
34 Vernon Wells 110 Aaron Rowand 287 W. Balentien 373
35 Raul Ibanez 120 Chris Dickerson 288 Steven Pearce 375
36 Nelson Cruz 129 Cody Ross 292 Seth Smith 381
37 Jayson Werth 132 David Murphy 293 Rajai Davis 382
38 Brad Hawpe 132 Juan Rivera 297 Travis Buck 385
39 L. Milledge 132 Travis Snider 298 Scott Podsednik 397
40 Willy Taveras 147 Skip Schumaker 301 Marlon Byrd 398
Read More »

2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 15th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for infielders.

Rank First Base ADP Second Base ADP Third Base ADP
1 Albert Pujols 3 Ian Kinsler 11 David Wright 4
2 Miguel Cabrera 7 Chase Utley 16 Alex Rodriguez 12
3 Ryan Howard 12 Dustin Pedroia 23 Evan Longoria 21
4 Mark Teixeira 13 Brandon Phillips 29 Aramis Ramirez 32
5 Lance Berkman 17 Brian Roberts 36 Chipper Jones 54
6 Justin Morneau 22 Alexei Ramirez 49 Garrett Atkins 76
7 Prince Fielder 25 Dan Uggla 65 Chone Figgins 79
8 Adrian Gonzalez 37 Robinson Cano 83 Aubrey Huff 90
9 Kevin Youkilis 40 Howie Kendrick 129 R.Zimmerman 96
10 Chris Davis 59 Jose Lopez 162 E. Encarnacion 120
11 Joey Votto 66 Kaz Matsui 181 Alex Gordon 145
12 Carlos Pena 69 Mark DeRosa 191 Jorge Cantu 146
13 Derrek Lee 75 Kelly Johnson 193 Adrian Beltre 153
14 James Loney 100 Placido Polanco 200 Carlos Guillen 196
15 Carlos Delgado 101 Rickie Weeks 201 Ty Wigginton 201
16 Paul Konerko 170 Orlando Hudson 265 Melvin Mora 207
17 Hank Blalock 180 Felipe Lopez 267 Mark Reynolds 212
18 Pablo Sandoval 203 Mark Ellis 267 Casey Blake 253
19 Jason Giambi 203 Akinori Iwamura 269 K. Kouzmanoff 256
20 Mike Jacobs 212 Alexi Casilla 277 Ian Stewart 266
Rank Shortstop ADP Second Base ADP Utility ADP
1 Hanley Ramirez 1 Russell Martin 45 David Ortiz 53
2 Jose Reyes 4 Brian McCann 48 Jim Thome 169
3 Jimmy Rollins 9 Joe Mauer 59 Travis Hafner 244
4 Rafael Furcal 60 Geovany Soto 65 Kendry Morales 272
5 Michael Young 84 Victor Martinez 74 Gary Sheffield 296
6 Stephen Drew 87 Ryan Doumit 119
7 Derek Jeter 95 Matt Wieters 130
8 Troy Tulowitzki 96 Chris Iannetta 138
9 Jhonny Peralta 99 Mike Napoli 155
10 J.J. Hardy 106 Bengie Molina 170
11 Miguel Tejada 126 Jorge Posada 210
12 O. Cabrera 160 Jeff Clement 240
13 Mike Aviles 170 A.J. Pierzynski 251
14 Ryan Theriot 186 R. Hernandez 253
15 Yunel Escobar 191 Dioner Navarro 258
16 Khalil Greene 204 Kurt Suzuki 268
17 Jason Bartlett 218 Kelly Shoppach 276
18 Edgar Renteria 239 Gerald Laird 303
19 Jed Lowrie 254 Yadier Molina 311
20 C. Guzman 274 Brandon Inge 312
Read More »

2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 6-10

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, lets look at rounds 6-10 of the draft with each player having the biggest upside or downside per round. The same assumptions are in play, 15 team mixed league fantasy baseball draft, using the average draft positions (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC scoring system.

Round 6:

Upside - Ryan Ludwick (88) – The upside is not there in terms of performance; I don’t see him surpassing his 37 home runs of a year ago, but with the his ADP currently as the third from last pick of round 6, I would be happy to take 32 home runs and a .285 average from him. Remember last year, he started off in a platoon situation with the St. Louis Cardinals, so the stats he put up were in roughly 75-100 at bats less than what he will have this season, barring any type of injury of course.

Downside - Scott Kazmir (90) – He has only thrown over 200 innings one time in the last three years. The injury risk alone makes push him below some of the pitchers that are going in rounds 7-9. Add in his wildness at the end of last season, he walked 18 batters in 25 2/3 innings in the postseason and the 6th round is too high for him.

Round 7:

Upside – Joakim Soria (94) – The seventh round is usually where I start looking for a closer in a 15 team draft if there is a solid pick that has slid that far. Soria at #94 fits that profile this season. It would be nice if his strikeout rate was a little bit higher, but with his earned run average and whip ratio, that might be nit-picking him too much. People discount him because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, but bad teams tend to play quite a few close games when they do win, so save chances will always be available. Currently he is the sixth closer being drafted.

Downside - James Loney (99) – One thing to keep in mind when projecting rookies or young players seeing at bats for the first time is that is not a good idea to prorate stats from a partial season and assume that he will carry those numbers into the following year. Case in point is James Loney who hit .331 in 344 at bats in 2007 with 15 home runs. A lot of people were projecting him for 25 home runs and 100+ rbi with a .300 average last season and he came up way short in the home run department with only 13. His career high in the minor leagues was 11 in 2005.

Round 8:

Upside – J.J. Hardy (105) – So I cheated a little bit and stuck him in round 8, although technically his ADP is the last pick of round 7. Hardy has put up two pretty similar seasons the last two years. His stats are pretty much in line with Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta, both of which are going a full one round higher than Hardy in mock drafts. Alcides Escobar may be the future for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop but he is no threat to Hardy’s job in 2009.

Downside - Joba Chamberlain (107) – Yes, in his 11 starts he put up some nice numbers, but he only had three wins to show for it, despite striking out 74 batters in 65 innings. In 2009, he is slated to open the season as the New York Yankees fifth starter which means he might get skipped a start or two for rainouts or additional rest. If the New York Yankees fall out of the play-off race late in the year, there is a chance they would limit his innings since he only threw a little over 100 last season. With Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edison Volquez and Yovani Gallardo all going after Chamberlain, in addition to Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, there are better options in the 8th round with less risk attached to them.

Round 9:

Upside - Brad Hawpe (132) – There is not much upside potential in round 9, but Hawpe being available at the end of the round is a good pick. He offers a solid average in the .290 range with 25 home runs and 100 rbi potential.

Downside – Nelson Cruz (128) – Fantasy players are going a little overboard I think in projecting Cruz’s 2009 numbers based on 115 at bats in 2008. Yes he has power potential, but remember that he is already 28, this is not a rookie we are talking about. Last year was his third season in the major leagues with the Texas Rangers. If you combine his stats over three seasons with Texas, his numbers are 22 home runs, 82 rbi and 6 steals in 552 at bats. Not bad numbers, but there is a reason those numbers are spread out over three years; the Rangers have never given him chance at 500+ at bats in one season. With Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones in the wings, there is no guarantee he gets those at bats this year either, unless he gets off to a blazing start to the season. There is a lot of risk to picking him in the 8th round with other alternatives still on the draft board.

Round 10:

Upside – Jorge Cantu (143) – It is nice to find a corner infielder with 30 home run power still on the board in round 10. Cantu offers the additional flexibility of qualifying at 1b and 3b. He also turned the magical age of 27 in January if you believe in that phenomenon.

Downside – Xavier Nady (149) Nady had a career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates / New York Yankees last season. With all career years, there is always a very good chance for regression the following season. The Yankees also have a few extra hitters floating around in their outfield so Nady might lose 100-150 at bats even as a starter, depdning how much playing time the combination of Melky Cabrera / Brett Gardner / Nick Swisher receive.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 1-5

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Today we are going to look at the one person with the most upside and downside per round based on a 15 team fantasy baseball draft with average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.

Round 1:

Upside - Ryan Braun (7) – Has a great chance of hitting over 40 home run this season, with 100+ runs and rbi’s. Add in 15-20 steals and the potential for a .300 average and Braun represents the best upside in the first round, based on his draft slot and the chance to exceed his 2008 numbers.

Downside - Ian Kinsler (9) – I like Kinsler, but not at number nine. He has never surpassed 518 at bats in the last three years and with the possibility to grab Pedroia / Phillips/ Roberts in the 2nd round or even Alexei Ramirez in the third round, Kinsler is going to leave some owners crushed if they are picking him this high.

Round 2:

Upside - Alfonso Soriano (24) – it was just two years ago he was 40-40 and that was for the lowly Washington Nationals. Prorate his numbers over a whole season last year and Soriano would have been at 44 home runs and 28 stolen bases. If you are slotted in the in the 7-9 spots of your draft order, count your lucky stars if Soriano falls to you in the second round.

Downside – Dustin Pedroia (23) There is some regression coming this year, there is little chance Pedroia duplicates his stats from last season. Take away 10 steals from Pedroia and a couple of home runs and you are looking at Kelly Johnson plus 30 points in batting average. Not a second round pick in my eyes with the other players available on the board.

Round 3:

Upside - Matt Kemp (38) The explosion is coming, it might be a year away, but soon we will be seeing regular seasons of 25 home runs and 35+ steals from Mr. Kemp. To get those steals in the middle of the third round, plus close to a .300 average is a bargain.

Downside - Kevin Youkilis (37) Not sure that I believe he is a 30 home run hitter after hitting only 16 in 2007. Even if I knew for certain he was going to hit 30, I would rather wait until round 4 or 5 and grab Chris Davis or Joey Votto.  There is better value available in the third round.

Round 4:

Upside - Alexei Ramirez (48) – his numbers are not that far off from the three second baseman that are going ahead of him in the draft, discounting Chase Utley. Ramirez will have the added bonus after three weeks into the regular season of being eligible at SS for those leagues with a 20 game rule.

Downside - Joe Mauer (53) – Mauer is coming off of kidney surgery in January and recently has been bothered by a sore back. There are four very good options at catcher available after Mauer, who could potentially start the season the disabled list.  I would take the following; Soto (67), Victor Martinez (78), Doumit (120) and Ianetta (133), all ahead of Mauer.

Round 5:

Upside - Chris Davis (65) – Has a chance to be this year’s Ryan Howard with a higher batting average. A nice upside pick with the chance to hit 35-40 home runs and bat over .290.

Downside - Magglio Ordonez (64) – Ordonez had a solid year last year, and is always around the .300 mark but with zero speed and with only 20-25 home run, spending a fifth round pick on him is not  a good investment. There are lots of outfielders you can select later on in the draft that will put up the same or better numbers than Ordonez will in 2008.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 3rd, 2009

Finally the month of March has come. That means fantasy baseball drafts are right around the corner. Now that spring training is officially underway, lets take a look at some the player’s whose average draft position are rising and falling the last two weeks, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Rising:

Brett Gardner – Gardner has been on the rise with talk out of New York that he has a chance to possibly be the Yankees opening day center fielder and lead off hitter. Gardner has the potential to steal 40 bases with a full-time job and his current ADP of 374 puts him the 24-26 round range depending if you have 14 or 15 teams in your league. He is also a good target for AL-only leagues where steals are at a premium.

Dana Eveland – no real news on Eveland so far in spring. People could be picking up on his first half numbers of 3.49 e.r.a and 1.4 whip ratio with 74 strikeouts as his true numbers before he bombed in the second half and was sent to Triple-A in August for a short time. ADP has increased 120 spots in the last two weeks.

Daniel Murphy – his ADP jump of 99 spots has to be driven by New York Mets fans. He might be part of a platoon with Fernando Tatis in the outfield. His minor league numbers suggest the potential for a decent .280-.300 batting average with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 rbi’s.

Miguel Batista – currently the leader in a three arm race with Mark Lowe and Roy Corcoran to be the Seattle Mariner’s closer. His numbers in relief last season were not any better than when he was a starter. APD has risen 90 spots, putting him in the 25th round range. If he  enter the season as the closer, he might be good for 10-15 saves before he loses the job.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman is currently battling for the 5th starter spot with the Chicago Cubs. With multiple bullpen options already with Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Chad Gaudin and possibly Jeff Samardzija, it makes sense to see if Heilman can bolster the rotation. ADP has jumped 76 spots in the last two weeks.

Falling:

Ben Sheets - was close to signing a contract with the Texas Rangers last month before they discovered he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. The surgery is expected to sideline him until after the All-Star break. Not worth drafting unless you play in a dynasty / ultimate league. ADP has fallen 139 spots.

Braden Looper - recently signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, Looper will miss the next 1-2 weeks with an oblique strain and could start the season on the disabled list. ADP has dropped 62 spots the last two weeks.

Jeremy Bonderman - recently underwent an MRI on his right shoulder, his availability for the start of the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation is still in question. ADP has declined 22 spots.

Josh Fields - Fields, the potential starting third basemen for the Chicago White Sox will have to battle Wilson Betemit and recently signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo for the position. Fields has lost some of his luster as a prospect from a few years ago as he is now 26 and put up disappointing numbers in Triple-A last season. His ADP has slid 21 spots.

Mike Fontenot – Fontenot appeared slated to be the starting second basemen for the Chicago Cubs until the Cubs signed Aaron Miles to a two year contract. They could end up in a platoon role with Fontenot getting the majority of at bats as the left-handed hitter. Fontenot’s ADP has fallen 26 spots the last two weeks.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder’s ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Continuing on the same theme from my previous post, we are now going to look at the fantasy baseball ADP for outfielders and utility players / designated hitters.

Fantasy baseball outfielders: Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers seems to be going pretty high in drafts this year, currently listed with an ADP of 133.  He turns 29 in June and is currently penciled in as the starting outfielder, but with Marlon Byrd and the recently signed Andruw Jones around, Cruz cannot afford to get off to a slow start or he will lose at bats. He had only 115 at bats in the majors last year but in that small sample size he seems to have a much better grasp of the strike zone than during his previous tours. There will be quite a few more solid, dependable players available at this stage of the draft for Cruz to warrant a selection this high.

Delmon Young with an ADP of 219 seems to be too high as well. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has publicly said Delmon Young is currently on the outside looking in for a spot in his starting outfield. Whether the Twins are trying to trade Young or simply light a fire under him, it does not sound well for his playing time at least initially this season. Young has displayed a decent average and a few steals, but little power and an inability to walk to get on base. Again, I think there are better options than Young at this point of the draft.

Nick Swisher at 199 must be getting drafted by a lot of New York Yankee fans in the mock drafts to be this high. He was originally slotted in at first base after being traded for in November but then the Yankees went out and signed Mark Teixeira. Manager Joe Girardi said Swisher will have a chance to compete with Xavier Nady for the right field job, but barring a trade, expect Nady to be in the outfield opening day and Swisher riding the bench.

With the outfield player pool being so much larger than the other positions, there are a lot of great options late in the rounds that could provide some of the same type of stats as those players going in the middle rounds of the draft.

Matt Joyce, now with the Tampa Bay Rays is a late round source of power with an ADP of 344. He might be part of a platoon, but as a left-handed hitter, he owns the majority of the at bats. Could be good 20-25 home runs and a .260 average in 400-450 at bats. Currently projected to hit 7th in the Rays lineup.

Jody Gerut, slated to start in center field for the San Diego Padres currently is being selected around 370th overall . He had been out of the major leagues since 2005 before last season. His numbers in 2008 were not that far off from his stats in 2004, the last time he had a full-time job, except for a few more home runs and a few less walks. With San Diego on a tight budget, expect Gerut to get the start and put up numbers in the range of .275 avg 15 hr 65 rbis and 12 steals.

Chris Duncan of the St. Louis Cardinals, trying to return from an injury marred 2008 is currently running an ADP of 442. He had back surgery last season and says he is feeling no effects this year. With Tony LaRussa having Skip Schumaker attempt to make the shift from the outfield to second base, there is a spot open in the outfield for Duncan or rookie Colby Rasmus to grab. With the down year Rasmus had in Triple-A, expect Duncan to get first crack at the job if Shumaker winds up in the infield.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder’s ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

As a tie in to one of my previous posts regarding mock drafting, I am going to examine some of the current ADP (average draft position) rankings for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.

There are a multitude of sites that have ADP’s listed, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am going to examine the ADP’s at Mock Draft Central. After clicking on the header at the top of the page, the average draft position will have several filters you can pick from to run your report. The key is to filter on the type, as it will give you several options. I usually use the one for the NFBC format. Having participated in NFBC drafts and auction leagues before, I know it is a little higher level of player participating in those leagues so I think the ADP’s might be a little bit more accurate.

Of course there are caveats with the ADP’s because you are not sure if there were actually real owners drafting or if the computer was selecting for any of the picks, but it is another “tool” to use as you prepare for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft.

After selecting the NFBC scoring system, which is  a standard 5 x 5 league, the only difference being there are 15 teams and the leagues are no trades, you can also filter by position which is located right next to the player grid.

At the top of the report, it tells you there have been 39 qualifying drafts between 2/3/09 and 2/17/2009 so there is a good sample size to work with. When you are looking at the grid, it tells you the ADP, the earliest the player was picked, the latest the player was picked and what % of the drafts the player was taken in. For converting the ADP into a draft round, it is simply a matter of dividing the ADP number by the number of teams in your league. For example, Victor Martinez has an ADP of 78.56 or rounded to 79. For a 12 team league, that means he is being drafted on average in the middle of the 6th round. In a 15-team league, that is roughly the first few picks of the 5th round, etc.

So let’s get started and examine each of the infield positions.

Fantasy baseball catchers: Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s rookie catcher is currently listed as the 7th highest drafted catcher which is way too high for a one year league. On 2/13, Orioles exec Andy MacPhail spoke of Wieters starting the season in AAA. With Greg Zaun in camp, there is no reason to fast track Wieters who has not played a game in Triple-A yet. With lots of quality catchers available, there is no reason to take a risk on Wieters unless you are playing in a keeper league. Yes, I know, rookies are the sexy pick and it is nice to brag to your friends that you discovered the next hot thing, but Wieters should not be the first catcher that is drafted to your roster in a one year league. If you are looking at a late round play in leagues that require two catchers, John Baker of the Florida Marlins is a good selection. He should see 400 at bats this season and has been a slid .277 hitter in the minors throughout his career. Although he is little old at 28, a lot of catchers don’t develop as hitters until later in their career. He led the Pac-10 in batting average as a junior in 2002 and was part of the famous draft of the Oakland A’s in 2002 that was wrriten about by Michael Lewis in his book Moneyball.

Fantasy baseball first basemen: Just a few years ago Derek Lee of the Chicago Cubs was top three round pick. This year ADP has him being drafted behind the likes of Chris Davis, Carlos Pena, and Joey Votto. Lee has always been a player that seems to be drafted higher because of his name and potential for high production but in his entire career he has only driven in over 100 runs one time! His wrist injury in 2006 seems to have sapped him of some of his power and days of his double digit steals are well behind him. Paul Konerko was plagued by injuries in 2008 but is looking like a good value pick with an ADP of 171. Add in an extra 100-125 at bats for last year missed due to injury and his stats come out to 28 home runs and 74 runs batted in. The average was still low in the Jim Thome range, but if you can grab that type of power in the middle of your draft and he boosts the average up into the .270 range, that is great value.

Fantasy baseball second basemen: It looks like Howie Kendrick has a lot of people still on his bandwagon without the performance to back it up with an ADP of 134, ahead of Mark DeRosa, Kelly Johnson and Rickie Weeks, etc. Kendrick has been unable to stay healthy for an entire season, logging around 350 at bats the past two seasons. While the average is nice to have he has shown little power with a few stolen bases thrown in. You can get that same type of production from a Placido Polanco five rounds later. Again, the sexy young pick of Kendrick versus the grizzled veteran Polanco seems easy. It is much better to tell a friend, “I got Kendrick” with some excitement in your voice, rather than, “yeah, I got Polanco” muttered under your breath. But in reality, their numbers are pretty close and that is assuming Kendrick ever hits the 500 at bat mark one of these seasons.

Fantasy baseball shortstops: Derek Jeter has finally fallen from the top three rounds of fantasy baseball drafts, with his ADP projecting him around 100 overall. I am going to give you stats for two players and you decide which player you want:

Player A: .300 avg. 88 runs 11 home runs 69 rbis 11 steals

Player B:  281 avg.   93 runs  8  home runs  57 rbis  19 steals

Player A is Derek Jeter, player B is Orlando Cabrera. Their stats last year were not that much different, but Jeter for this year has an ADP of 100 and Cabrera around 164. Part of that could be tempered by Cabrera still being a free agent, but the point remains, don’t draft a player just for their name, make sure their stats support the round at which you are drafting them.

For value, I like Edgar Renteria currently listed at 236. He returns to the National League where he hits roughly 20 points higher and it looks like he will be hitting second for the San Francisco Giants this season which will give him a boost in runs scored. With Bruce Bochy willing to steal bases a little more often to manufacture runs, Renteria could even swipe 15 bags this season.

Fantasy baseball third basemen: Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals looks to be going a little high in drafts with an ADP of 99. Coming off of wrist surgery in 2007 he suffered a torn labrum in 2008 and his power suffered as a result. His walk rate decreased and his stolen base totals went from 11 two years ago to only 1 last season. He can still have a productive season but I think there are better, safer choices that will be available in a one year league draft. Lots of injury plays at 3b in the later rounds; Scott Rolen, the always injured Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, though none of which I would risk a pick on unless it was in the reserve rounds. In the later rounds, I would be targeting either Casey Blake or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Either guy will get you 20+ home runs, close to 80 rbi’s and will be available in the later part of your draft.



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